The Insider - 2014 Tennis Special - December 2013

THE

ISSUE 166 WEDNESDAY 18 DECEMBER 2013

Laszlo Szirtesi / Shutterstock.com

InsiderBet.co.uk

ISSUE

TENNIS SPECIALS

– SERVING UP WINNERS IN 2014...

Insiders have been cashing in on ‘Tennis Specials’ for years, and I’m hoping 2014 will be no different. Since my first bets back in 2002, the bookmakers have continually missed the mark with their pricing of these markets – and the 2014 offerings look just as encouraging...

ANDY MURRAY TO FINISH EMPTY-HANDED...

Let’s kick off with a market that is currently being bet to fractionally over 100% – the Andy Murray Slams market – and I’m sorry Murray fans, but the 11/8 about NONE is just too appealing…

ANDY MURRAY – GRAND SLAM WINS 2014 Andy Murray has invariably struggled on return from injury and after sustaining back damage during the latter quarter of 2013 (which in turn cost us a winning bet in the Most Aces market), Britain’s Number One has spent the last two months recovering from surgery.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

TENNIS 2014 Andy Murray - Grand Slam wins 2014 SEE PAGES 1 & 2

TENNIS 2014 Top Australian and Top German SEE PAGE 3

TENNIS 2014 ATP: Most Aces. ATP Most Aces Handicap SEE PAGE 4

TENNIS 2014 Rankings Match Bet. SEE PAGE 5

TENNIS 2014 Top Spaniard w/o Nadal & Ferrer SEE PAGE 6

TENNIS 2014 ATP: End of Season Number One. SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

In early December the Scot – who is currently in rehab in the US – started to hit lightly again, which gives him just under 4 weeks from now to get himself ready for the season’s first Grand Slam – which in my opinion is nowhere near enough time.

FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK

ISSUE 166 // Wednesday 18 December 2013

HERE’S HOW I SEE THE SCOT’S 2014 SEASON PANNING OUT IN THE PRICE DEPARTMENT…

11/2 Murray has a good record in Australia, but after missing the back end of 2013 – and then being unable to hit through the ball until the end of December – there is no doubt in my mind he is going to end up struggling in the second week.

Murray has always been a player that has needed to be right mentally to contest at his highest level and I’m afraid he will arrive in Melbourne with the kind of mindset that will view a quarter final defeat as some kind of success.

16/1

3/1

11/4

The layers are happy to quote Murray at 20.0 on Betfair – I’ll be a little more conservative with his price though and bet 16/1.

The bookmakers’ prices for Wimbledon 2014 are margin heavy with the 2/1 about Murray an absolute joke of a price.

There’s no doubt Murray has some of the skills required to win the claycourt French Open, however, his movement has not improved enough over the years and he is still unable to slide into balls effectively.

Layers on Betfair are already willing to lay 4.10 about him defending his title and we could well end up with his SP being even higher.

This would be Murray’s best chance of a 2014 slam win in my opinion, but if the bet is still live at this stage (and it’s odds on to be) then the fact that he has come up short in the opening three slams of the year will obviously affect his price for success in New York.

Djokovic and Nadal look to have it between themselves at the top of the market with Del Potro a valid third favourite – Murray has never played anywhere near his best in Paris and it’s hard to see him bucking that trend in 2014.

Once again, I’ll err on the side of caution with Murray’s price – I’ll put him in at 3/1 which feels like the right price to me.

CAN HE BOUNCE BACK

TENNIS 2014 SPECIALS

This bet is all about how Murray bounces back from injury – coupled with the depth in the men’s game that will prevent him from getting anything easy.

TIP

Simulating the above prices 10,000 times makes Murray just over an 11/10 chance to win zero slams, 6/4 to win 1 slam, 7/1 to win 2 slams, 40/1 to win 3 slams and 300/1 to do the calendar slam. Therefore, the 11/8 about Murray coming up dry next year at 11/8 and 5/4 is a bit of value…

January – September 2014

Murray to win Zero Slams

STAKE

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

ANDY MURRAY GRAND SLAM WINS

£5.00

PRICE

The last time Murray had a serious injury (2007) it took the Scot months to get back to his top level and I’m expecting something similar here – the key event is Wimbledon, and for my money, the pressure of defending his title together with the usual circus that surrounds his participation makes him a genuine 3/1 chance there – at the very least

[2]

All I’m interested in however is his chances of winning the US Open and 11/4 would seem fair.

11/8 (Minimum 5/4) 11/8 AT

5/4 AT

sportingbet sporting bet

InsiderBet.co.uk

TENNIS 2014 – TOP AUSTRALIAN // TOP GERMAN

TOP AUSTRALIAN 2014

TOP GERMAN 2014

A look back at 2013 and it’s quite incredible that Bernard Tomic managed to keep his place in the Top 100 let alone push for a place inside the 50. Injuries, poor conditioning and the episode with his father assaulting Bernard’s hit partner should’ve been more than enough to tilt the young Australian off of his game – but whilst it was a year he would rather forget, it was still a respectable bottom line… ranked 51.

The Top German market is dominated by two players – Phillip Kohlschreiber and Tommy Haas – and after reading a few off-season training reports, I can only be with Tommy at what looks like a super price…

Two tournaments saved Tomic’s bacon – a win in Sydney (a 250 point event) and a Round of 16 finish at Wimbledon (180 ranking points). Other than that, 2013 was a compendium of mediocre performances including a full house of R64 exits in the points rich Masters 1000 events.

I’m happy to support the Australian next year though – he has always had some level of talent but with his added maturity, I’m expecting a brilliant season of tennis from Bernard in 2014.

His new coach Velimir Zovko (who is standing in for the now banned John Tomic at tournaments) is a much better fit – being from Croatia, Zovko will understand the requirements of his fellow countrymen a lot better than his previous entourage.

Tomic’s opposition in the Top Australian market comes in the shape of Marinko Matosevic and Lleyton Hewitt…

I’m not a fan of supporting streak players in markets such as these. Matosevic had an awful start to the season in 2013 but he finished quite well and ended up ranked 61 in the word – I would suggest that is his mark.

Lleyton Hewitt only played 19 events last season, however the wily Australian still managed to squeeze 780 rankings points out of the season – but at 32 years old, he’ll need to catch a few nice draws to break the Top 32 and I just can’t see that happening.

As is the case with any rankings based bet, it is a players potential to perform well in the slams that will make the difference at the end of the season – and as long as Tommy gets a better start to 2014, the German looks likely to score heavily in this department.

Haas is physically 100% at the moment and whilst no season can ever be perfect in the injury department, the German Number One is (due to medical science) in excellent shape at the moment.

Haas’ age is viewed as a significant worry for some, however he has only played 880 matches spread over 17 years of tennis – which is only 60 more than Djokovic – yes, he’s 35 years old, but his mileage isn’t that high.

TENNIS 2014

TENNIS 2014

PLAYER SPECIALS

PLAYER SPECIALS

January – November 2014

January – November 2014

TIP

Bernard Tomic – Top Australian

TIP

Tommy Haas – Top German

STAKE

£5.00

STAKE

£5.00

11/8 (Minimum 6/5)

PRICE

Kohlschreiber is the big danger, but compared to Haas in the big points events (the Slams and the Masters Series tournaments) Kohly comes out a clear second best with a career record of 107/98 compared to the 242/156 win loss record of Haas

PRICE

Hewitt’s season will be focussed on the slams – and playing selected events to prepare for the slams – and this isn’t the way to rack up enough points to beat a player like Tomic who will contest the whole season. I would say Tomic looks marginally odds on to land the Top Australian gong

Despite his age, Tommy Haas is playing some really nice tennis – indeed, last season he ended up with a couple of tournament wins and a runner-up trophy for his efforts.

That serve is still as good as ever with 6.1 aces per match, 74% first serves won and 84% second serves won – and on return Tommy is just as potent with 24% of return games won generated from an impressive 38% break points converted…

6/5 (Minimum Evens)

11/8 AT

6/5 AT

6/5 AT

[3]

TENNIS 2014 – ATP: MOST ACES // ATP: MOST ACES HANDICAP

CAREER MATCHES

CAREER BREAKERS

TIEBREAK AVERAGE

Milos Raonic

350

196

0.56 per match

John Isner

426

389

0.91 per match

The reason for this is a simple one – Raonic is simply a better player in the return of serve department, hence he gets sets done quicker and crucially – he serves fewer tiebreaks. I’ve totted up both players Tiebreaks per Match records over the past couple of seasons and as you can see, Isner is well in front of his Canadian rival with a 0.91 breaker per match average over his career compared to just 0.56 for Raonic.

2012 Aces

Matches

Aces/Match

2012 Games

Milos Raonic

1002

62

16.16

817

John Isner

1005

60

16.75

865

2013 Aces

Matches

Aces/Match

2013 Games

Milos Raonic

883

60

14.72

765

John Isner

979

60

16.32

834

An injury would change everything, but as things stand, Isner has to be a stronger favourite than Evens or 4/5 – some firms are 4/7, and I would agree with those odds

[4]

Just a small bet advised as there is only one bookmaker offering prices...

TENNIS 2014 MOST ACES January – November 2014 TIP

The more games a player plays the more aces they will hit and when it comes to these premiere servers, it’s John Isner that can be strongly fancied to rack up another 800+ game haul in 2014.

Isner is off scratch (zero Aces Handicap) which is correct, but working off of his potential haul in 2014, giving Raonic a 45-ace lead AND offering the Canadian up at 11/2 looks pretty good value with both players looking solid if they can escape injury.

John Isner – Most Aces

STAKE

The history of this aces match between the American and the Canadian has only been in full swing for two seasons… in 2012 it was big John that landed the prize with 1,005 aces and in 2013 the American retained his title with an ace haul of 979. Make no mistake these guys are closely matched, but I fancy couple of big factors to make all the difference in 2014…

With two virtual non-runners, this is a decent market for us to have a pop at and at the prices, a couple of players stand out – and once again it’s Raonic and Isner that look the players to be with…

£5.00

PRICE

Karlovic, Tsonga, Anderson and Janowicz will all hit their fair share of bombs, but when it comes to racking up a near 1,000 ace total for the year, there are only two players in the world that are capable of getting close to that number…

BetFred have come up with an interesting market here and as far as I can make out, they have pitched most of their handicaps too low – especially for the likes of Tsonga and Almagro, both of whom look likely to miss by quite a way.

Evens (Minimum 4/5)

EVANS AT

4/5 AT

MOST ACES - HANDICAP January – November 2014 TIP

ITHE MOST ACES MARKET LOOKS A CRACKER THIS SEASON WITH ONLY AN INJURY STOPPING MILOS RAONIC AND JOHN ISNER GOING INTO A HEAD TO HEAD FOR THE SEASON.

MOST ACES HANDICAP

Milos Raonic +45 Aces Handicap

STAKE

MOST ACES

£2.00

PRICE

ISSUE 166 // Wednesday 18 December 2013

11/2 (Minimum 7/2) 11/2 AT

InsiderBet.co.uk

TENNIS 2014 – RANKINGS MATCH BET // HOW THE RANKINGS WORK

RANKINGS MATCH BET WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS TO GO UNTIL THE START OF THE SEASON, IT’S DISAPPOINTING THE WE HAVEN’T GOT A BETTER RANGE OF RANKINGS MATCH BETS ON THE BOARDS – BUT ONE MAKES APPEAL AND THAT’S THE RANKINGS MATCHUP OF ANA IVANOVIC WITH SABINE LISICKI… as far as 2014 is concerned, Ivanovic – without any pressure whatsoever – can be fancied to have her best season for years.

My take on this matchup is that we’re going to see the girls going in opposite directions on the rankings ladder with the Serbian, Ivanovic winning a place back inside the Top 10 and the German slipping a couple of places after what was a stellar 2013…

Lisicki on the other hand, could struggle to come up to expectations next season – her choke in the Wimbledon final proved to be a hard performance to forget, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the fallout rollover into 2014.

Since winning the French Open back in 2008, Ana Ivanovic’s career has basically been on a steady downward slide, reaching just one quarter final in 22 Grand Slam attempts since beating Dinara Safina in Paris.

After going through numerous coaches and numerous tweaks to a whole range of technical flaws, Ivanovic seems to have at last found some kind of balance in her game – she had a consistent year in 2013 and there’s plenty to build on in 2014.

Going ‘won 43 lost 24’ last season wasn’t a bad effort – she got better as the season progressed and her performances in the big ones were for the most part pretty solid.

There’s no doubt that most of the ladies struggle with the pressure, but

She has plenty of points to protect during the opening half of the season (see rankings explained article below) and whilst I still fancy her to have some kind of success, I’m struggling to see her maintain the kind of level throughout the season that will see her compete with Ivanovic – and it is worth remembering that her current ranking is her career peak.

All in all, Ivanovic looks like a decent favourite to beat Lisicki in a Rankings Match Bet – she has a great history of fitness (unlike Lisicki) and with the German snagging all kinds of distracting endorsements, I’m expecting a slight drop off from her 2013 performance

TENNIS 2014 RANKINGS MATCH BET TIP

Ana Ivanovic to beat Sabine Lisicki

STAKE

£5.00

PRICE

January – November 2014

18/19 (Minimum 4/6) 18/19 AT

4/6 AT

HOW THE RANKINGS WORK THE WTA RANKINGS ARE BASED ON A 52-WEEK, CUMULATIVE POINTS SYSTEM. A PLAYER’S RANKING IS DETERMINED

BY HER RESULTS AT A MAXIMUM OF 16 SINGLES TOURNAMENTS. The tournaments that count towards a player’s ranking are those that yield the highest ranking points during the rolling 52-week period. They must include points from the Grand Slams, Premier Mandatory tournaments and the WTA Championships. For Top 20 players (such as Lisicki and Ivanovic) their best two results at Premier 5 tournaments (Doha, Rome, Cincinnati, Toronto and Tokyo) will also count.

You will have read the phrase ‘protecting points’ – this means that a player turns up an event in the current season where she amassed points the season before. Therefore, she has to protect those points or else her ranking total will suffer some kind of negative hit.

Sabine Lisicki for example, has 2,920 points to protect from last year – half of which were from her Wimbledon final. I think she’ll struggle to protect those numbers from SW19 – but she has plenty of scope to make up that shortfall as she only collected 325 points elsewhere.

To catch up with the latest rankings points go to www.wtatour.com and select ‘rankings’ from the menu bar

sportingbet sporting bet

[5]

ISSUE 166 // Wednesday 18 December 2013

TENNIS 2014 – TOP SPANIARD W/O NADAL & FERRER

TOP SPANIARD W/O NADAL & FERRER Coral have made a bit of a rick here going 8/13 Nicolas Almagro to finish as the Top Spaniard ‘Without Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer’...

Starting off with Verdasco, and if I was guaranteed a flat out season from the current world number 30, then maybe I could agree with the 7/2 on offer with Coral, but I’m afraid the now 30 year old is quickly becoming a journeyman with too many loose performances – not to mention his poor record in ‘Best of Five Sets’ matches last season.

As far as Robredo is concerned, that

My pick – the 28 year old Almagro – is currently in the peak years of his career and the fact he has improved his game foundation is the reason why I fancy Nico to have a serious tilt at the Top 10 this season.

A top class clay game is Almagro’s obvious strength, but unlike most of his peers in this market, he also has a Top 16 game on hard court too – and if he wasn’t as unlucky with the draw

After a rocky start to his tennis career where I wouldn’t have trusted him with any amount of cash in a market like this, but Almagro has finally matured into a really good player and alongside his coach Samuel Lopez he can go very close to achieving his season goal of a place inside the Top 10

TENNIS 2014 TOP SPANIARD W/O NADAL & FERRER January – November 2014 TIP

This market is seriously between Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Robredo and Marcel Granollers…

And Granollers just isn’t good enough to challenge for a top placing here – with a couple of injuries to the top pairing he could go close, but at just 8/1, he would need a knockout clay court season if he is to trouble the judge here.

as he was last season, he could well have finished a little higher on the rankings ladder in 2013.

Nicolas Almagro

STAKE

The Coral market only bets with six runners, two of which look genuine 33/1 chances – Feliciano Lopez (who is going to target the bigger events this year with rest in between) and Pablo Andujar (who looks outclassed without the help of a few injuries).

wrist injury that curtailed his 2013 season is a big worry for me – as too is the fact that he turns 32 in May. I get the feeling that last season (which won him the Player of the Year award from the Spanish journalists) was a peak for Robredo with his impressive world ranking of 18 taking a big hit over the upcoming 12 months of tennis.

£10.00

PRICE

When I priced up this market I was 1/3 Almagro with a view to going a little bit shorter, and my market had an ‘Any Other’ selection at 20/1 so there’s an argument to suggest I should be a touch skinnier than 1/3.

8/13 (Minimum 1/2) 8/13 AT

GRAND SLAMS 2014

GRAND SLAM AND MASTERS 1000 CALENDAR 2014

JAN 13

THE GRAND SLAMS ARE THE KEY EVENTS FOR ANY KIND OF RANKINGS MATCH BET...

Our wagers on Almagro, Tomic and Haas will lean heavily on their points return from these events with huge points totals available to those players that excel.

A good Grand Slam performance can be the making of a player’s season – hence why I have sided with the likes of Almagro, Tomic and Haas who all have the experience of performing well at the sports biggest tournaments.

[6]

As points rich as the slams are, it will be the player’s performances in the Masters 1000 events that will make all the difference.

The way the ‘Super Nine’ tournaments are scheduled, players that streak hot at just the right time can really make hay here, with not only 1000 points to the winner, but also 600 for a finalist, 360 for a semi finalist and 180 points for a quarter finalist

SLAM PTS

Australian Open Winner

2000

MAY 25

French Open

Final

1200

JUN 23

Wimbledon

Semi

720

AUG 25

US Open

Quarter 360

MASTERS 1000 2014 MAR 6

Indian Wells

MAR 19

Miami

APR 13

Monte-Carlo

MAY 4

Madrid

MAY 11

Rome

AUG 4

Toronto

AUG 10

Cincinnati

OCT 5

Shanghai

OCT 27

Paris

Last 16

180

InsiderBet.co.uk

TENNIS 2014 – END OF SEASON NUMBER ONE

ATP TOUR 2014 – END OF SEASON NUMBER ONE THE RACE TO BE THE WORLD NUMBER ONE IS DOMINATED BY TWO PLAYERS – RAFAEL NADAL AND NOVAK DJOKOVIC. AND DESPITE NADAL HOLDING A 700 POINT EDGE IN THE RANKINGS TABLE, IT’S DJOKOVIC THAT I FANCY TO FINISH UP ON TOP OF THE LADDER AFTER 11 LONG MONTHS OF TENNIS….

Novak Djokovic was close to having a really good season in 2013 but in the end, three matches made all the difference to his end of year ranking…

First up, his French Open semi-final defeat resulted in a swing of 1,600 points to Nadal – and for those of you that remember back to that match, it was a final that Novak really should’ve won – despite failing to play anywhere near his best tennis.

Secondly, the whole Wimbledon experience ended up being too much for the Serbian with an inspired Murray beating Nole in straight sets in the final – once again Djokovic played nowhere near his best tennis with that epic semi-final five-setter against del Potro still in his legs..

And finally, the US Open where Nole was, once again, beaten by Rafael Nadal – however for the second time in 2013 it was Djokovic’s win in the round prior (over Wawrinka) that laid the foundations for his loss in the final with another epic five-setter leaving the Serbian flat for his matchup against Rafa – another 1,600 point ranking swing.

Djokovic finished the season in fine fashion through with 24 consecutive match wins including straightforward victories over the likes of Federer, Nadal, del Potro and Wawrinka.

(twice) and of all players David Ferrer.

If you look back through Nadal’s career, there has never been a season where the Spaniard has competed at the highest level for the full 11 months of the season – instead, he has either peaked early and then tailed off, or he has started slowly only to hit his highest gears from May onwards…

Last season he peaked in time for the French and the US Open – but he looked a different player post New York and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Spaniard put in another hot/cold streak in 2014 too, which would present Djokovic with a very good chance snatching back his world number one ranking.

I’ve been of the opinion for a long time that Djokovic has the potential to forge himself the ‘Greatest of all Time’ title – he was pretty close to it last season and I’ll be backing him to deliver in 2014...

Unibet have the best offer here of Even money – to find this market is a bit tricky though. From the homepage select ‘Sports’ and then ‘Tennis’ followed by ‘Win/Place’ and then scroll to the bottom of the page and select ‘More Bet Offers’ – the market should then display

TENNIS 2014 ATP END OF SEASON NUMBER ONE

HAS RAFA GOT A WHOLE SEASON IN HIM? TIP

Novak Djokovic

STAKE

January – November 2014

£10.00

PRICE

There’s not a lot you can say about Nadal’s 2013 season that hasn’t already been said – a fantastic display of tennis that saw him register some breathtaking displays during the core months of the season. But one couldn’t help wondering why he finished the season looking far less intense than he did during the months leading up to the US Open, with end of season losses to del Potro, Djokovic

Evens (Minimum 4/5) EVANS AT

5/6 AT

[7]

ISSUE 166 // Wednesday 18 December 2013

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Eight tips on the 2014 Tennis season...

In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be sticking with the Tennis and focusing on the first Grand Slam event of the year, the Australian Open. We have a good record in this event including a 33/1 winner on Novak Djokovic in 2008...

The issue will be on your doormats and available online on Wednesday 8th January.

A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

Mr X. TENNIS 2014

TIP

January – November 2014

Murray to win Zero Slams

Novak Djokovic

STAKE

ATP END OF SEASON NUMBER ONE

January – September 2014

£5.00

£10.00

PRICE

ANDY MURRAY - GRAND SLAM WINS

11/8 (Minimum 5/4)

Evens (Minimum 4/5)

11/8 AT

5/4 AT

EVANS AT

5/6 AT

PLAYER SPECIALS

PLAYER SPECIALS

RANKINGS MATCH BET

January – November 2014

January – November 2014

January – November 2014

TIP

Bernard Tomic – Top Australian

Tommy Haas – Top German

Ana Ivanovic to beat Sabine Lisicki

STAKE

£5.00

£5.00

£5.00

PRICE

sportingbet sporting bet

11/8 (Minimum 6/5)

6/5 (Minimum Evens)

18/19 (Minimum 4/6)

11/8 AT

6/5 AT

6/5 AT

18/19 AT

4/6 AT

MOST ACES

MOST ACES - HANDICAP

TOP SPANIARD W/O NADAL & FERRER

January – November 2014

January – November 2014

January – November 2014

TIP

John Isner – Most Aces

Milos Raonic +45 Aces Handicap

Nicolas Almagro

STAKE

£5.00

£2.00

£10.00

PRICE

sportingbet sporting bet

Evens (Minimum 4/5)

11/2 (Minimum 7/2)

8/13 (Minimum 1/2)

11/2 AT

8/13 AT

EVANS AT

4/5 AT

©Copyright 2013 Oxfordshire Press Ltd. Managing Editors: Oliver Upstone, Shaun Humphris.

Subscription and editorial queries can be made to the Insider Helpdesk on 01926 298986 (we may monitor calls to maintain and improve our service), or email us on info@oxonpress.co.uk Registered address: Oxfordshire Press Ltd, The Malthouse, William Street, Leamington Spa, CV32 4HJ. Registered in England No. 531 9086 VAT No. GB 854 6478 85. ISSN 1476-0541.

Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of all editorial material, however we disclaim all liability for any errors or omissions found in this publication. Oxfordshire Press in no way encourages reckless gambling and it is recommended that readers who engage in gambling do so responsibly and set financial limits. Anyone concerned about problem gambling can contact GamCare on 0845 6000 133 or gamcare.org.uk for further information.