The Insider - Australian Open Special - January 2014

THE

ISSUE 167 WEDNESDAY 08 JANUARY 2014

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ISSUE

AUSTRALIAN OPEN SPECIAL: LAND A 50/1 WINNER DOWN UNDER! The year’s first ‘Grand Slam’ tennis tournament is upon us. I wasn’t expecting the Australian Open organisers to roll out such a set of fast conditions for the 2014 event – you have to go back to 2000 to find the last time the courts in Melbourne Park were described as quick, a year where hair trigger players Andre Agassi and Lindsay Davenport made hay on ice rink conditions.

I’m not moaning though – the last thing we needed was another near 6 hour final, and when you add in the forecast heat and the quicker ball design, the 2014 tournament could be full of surprises on the men’s side…

OUTRIGHT WINNER – MEN’S I was gearing up to put up Novak Djokovic as my main bet for the men’s side, but given the conditions – heat, bounce and speed – it’s hard to justify a bet at just 5/4, and that’s the very best price you’ll get. This combination of factors can be a huge leveller and for this reason, the short prices make little appeal.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS 2014 Outright Winner – Men’s SEE PAGES 1 & 2

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS 2014 Playing Conditions SEE PAGE 3

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS 2014 Outright Winner – Women’s SEE PAGE 4

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS 2014 In-Play Betting Guide.

SEE PAGE 5

GRAND SLAM TENNIS 2014 Focus on Jerzy Janowicz SEE PAGE 6

TENNIS 2014 The Treatment Table SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

It’s also hard to use previous tournaments as a form guide – the early signs

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ISSUE 167 // Wednesday 08 January 2014 are these courts will play as fast as they have since Plexicushion was installed as the surface type and together with these livelier balls we could be in for a really entertaining couple of weeks.

I’m looking for a player that can serve big and from a decent height (to bring into play the bounce) and can handle what could be testing conditions on the temperature front.

Juan Martin del Potro ticks a few of those boxes and after a careful look through his matches in Melbourne, the Argentine has never really had a good shot at this event with a combination of injury and rehabilitation marring most of the time the towering Argentine has spent Down Under…

Considering this guy has pushed Djokovic to the brink the last four times they have played it’s hard to justify odds of 12/1 when the Serbian is just a 5/4 chance – especially when you take into account the extra bounce will sit nicely in his pocket and the extra speed will go well with his steep serve.

Del Potro finished the 2013 season really well and after listening to the honest Argentine in a couple of Sydney press conferences, the fact that he’s happy with his game is excellent news for his backers.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014 OUTRIGHT WINNER - MEN’S TIP

Juan Martin del Potro to win

STAKE

£1.50 – Each Way

PRICE

13 – 26 January 2014

12/1 (Minimum 10/1)

TIP

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win

STAKE

10/1 AT

£1.00 – Each Way

PRICE

12/1 AT

50/1 (Minimum 40/1) 50/1 AT

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds for 1, 2 places.

[2]

40/1 AT

I’ve got to take a slice of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga also – 50/1 about another of the tour’s big hitters is a crazy price especially given the vibe he has in Australia right now having just won the Hopman Cup… Once again, this selection meets the criteria with his powerful game and height suited by the new surface and ball conditions – and the heat will never be a problem for him. His form in Australia has been brilliant over the years with wins over some of the game’s best players – culminating in a win/loss of 24/7 that includes victories over Djokovic, Nadal and Murray.

I’ll be keeping an eye on the remaining warm up events before play starts in Melbourne on 13th Jan, but for now the Tsonga and Del Potro package will do me nicely for a brace of small wagers

“

Del Potro finished the 2013 season really well and after listening to the honest Argentine in a couple of Sydney press conferences, the fact that he’s happy with his game is excellent news for his backers.

“

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014 // PLAYING CONDITIONS

AUSSIE OPEN – PLAYING CONDITIONS There are four significant playing condition factors to consider at the Australian Open this year – two of which are new for 2014 – let’s start with the most significant of the three – the change in ball type…

THE BALL - WILSON AO 2014 We’ve already spoken about the ball change on page two – a world away from the Slazenger ball that was the official ball for years. All the indicators point to the organisers wanting to speed things up this year and with the surface already having a tweak, the only other variable they have control over is the ball.

Todd Woodbridge’s comments were very surprising – here we have a 30 year pro that has been exposed to a range of quick balls during his career yet he is citing the AO 2014 ball as one of the liveliest he has ever played with. This factor should not be underestimated – a potential game changer this year

THE SURFACE – PLEXICUSHION EXPLAINED… The Plexicushion surface type is manufactured by a company in America and has been used at the Australian Open since 2008, replacing the old Rebound Ace surface that had been the surface choice since 1988.

Novak Djokovic is the most successful player of all time on the surface with all four of his AO titles won on Plexicushion – Serena Williams (2009 & 2010 champion) and Victoria Azarenka (2012 & 2013) are dominating on the women’s side with 4 wins apiece.

The bounce is lower than Rebound Ace and most importantly of all, the surface does not retain heat as much – so does not get sticky when the weather conditions are hot.

In years gone by, the surface has been described as on the slow side of the hardcourt spectrum, however, Roger Federer has intimated that he expects the surface to play quicker this year

THE WEATHER – MELBOURNE HEAT Coping with the heat is obviously a key factor. Every year we see players struggling with the conditions and this year will be no different with a few days of the fourteen forecast to exceed 30 degrees.

whilst the Australian Open officials have previously refused to reveal the threshold, it is thought to be 30 degrees.

There are two covered courts – Rod Laver and Hisense Arena – and in the event of rain or extreme heat the roof can be closed. Once the roof on a court is closed it cannot be reopened until the conclusion of the match. When officials decide to stop play on an uncovered court the current set being played must be completed

THE NIGHT SESSIONS There have been some classic night matches at Melbourne Park and the heavy evening conditions often result in the courts playing very slow. The faster surface in 2014 coupled with the lively balls will go some way to cancelling out this shortfall, but the fact remains that the night sessions will still play significantly slower than the same courts during the day time.

All of the big matches will once again be played at night, including the men’s final, both men’s semi-finals and two of the men’s quarterfinals.

As far as the women’s side of the draw is concerned, the initial scheduling indicates a similar situation to last year where, from the quarterfinal stages onwards, only the final was held in the evening.

In the second week of the 2013 Australian Open there was only one night match that featured a women’s singles encounter – Serena Williams v Maria Kirilenko. In their yearning for entertaining night events (that attract higher advertising revenue due to the time zone) I’m not expecting the organisers to schedule many ladies night matches in the second week this year

2014 AO – A BUDDING ACE FEST? There were 120 aces in the first round of the Brisbane International last season – in 2014 (with the new ball in play) there were 234 – an average of 19.5 per game.

The extreme heat policy was introduced in 1998 and

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ISSUE 167 // Wednesday 08 January 2014

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014 // THE WOMEN

OUTRIGHT WINNER – WOMEN’S THE WOMEN’S AUSTRALIAN OPEN MARKET IS ONCE AGAIN HEADED BY SERENA WILLIAMS WHO IS PRICED UP AS SHORT AS 8/11 IN PLACES – AND GIVEN THE SERVE AND BREAK DATA ON THE NEXT PAGE, IT’S EASY TO SEE WHY SHE IS THE SHORTEST PRICED AUSTRALIAN OPEN FAVOURITE FOR A LONG TIME. The last time Serena lost was way back in August of last year where she was beaten 7-6 in the third set in Cincinnati by Victoria Azarenka – since then the American has ripped 22 wins in a row losing just three sets along the way.

I read some commentary the other day that criticised Serena’s form Down Under over the past two years – a tad harsh considering she was injured both in 2012 and 2013 and won the two tournaments in 2010 and 2011.

The big question is, can she continue to hold such a high percentage of service games whilst forcing a break % of in excess of 50% - because if she can, she wins.

Staying calm will be key. Serena has spoken about just enjoying her tennis this season, especially in the Slams, but we saw the kind of state she can get herself into only a few days ago when suffering four breaks of serve and serving seven double faults in Brisbane against a rusty Maria Sharapova.

is good with a 27-8 win loss over her career, which includes competitive losses to Clijsters twice, Serena and Azarenka.

Kvitova is of course capable of anything, but I’m not too sure how her new relationship with Radek Stepanek is going to affect her game. 22/1 is a massive price, but her best form is still a way off.

It’s 25/1 bar those, and I’m afraid that’s the right price in an each way book

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

In these fast conditions, Serena has to be the bet. These courts are being compared to the courts in Toronto and she has won 16 of her last 17 matches there.

Sharapova is going in the book also for a small stake – she’ll love these conditions and 10/1 is too big

It’s early days in the season though and as we saw against Azarenka in the final last Saturday, her serve form will improve as the opening matches pass – she rarely practices her serve in the offseason so she will always be slow out of the blocks in this department.

Na Li has just landed the Shenzhen Open without much fuss, but she didn’t beat much and is a hard player to gauge at the moment. Her form in Australia

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TIP

Serena Williams to win

STAKE

£10.00

PRICE

11/10 (Minimum Evens) 11/10 AT

EVENS AT

TIP

Sharapova was brilliant against Serena Williams last week – admittedly she got a helping hand from the American with Williams having an uncharacteristically poor day on serve, however we have to give some credit to the back–from-injury Sharapova for pushing her in the key moments. Mentally, the Russian will be very happy with that performance.

13 – 26 January 2014

Maria Sharapova to win

STAKE

Azarenka’s serve is a big worry for me – the new SAP data has highlighted major flaws in a few players and the Azarenka serve is one of the most striking with a high number of her deliveries pitching right in the middle of the service box. Against aggressive players like Kvitova, Williams and Sharapova that will pressure Vika into serving tighter.

OUTRIGHT WINNER - WOMEN’S

£1.00 – Each Way

PRICE

THE LIST OF CHALLENGERS TO A SERENA TITLE IS NOT A SHORT ONE…

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014

10/1 (Minimum 10/1) 10/1 AT

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds for 1, 2 places.

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014 // IN-PLAY BETTING GUIDE

AUSSIE OPEN – ‘IN-PLAY’ BETTING GUIDE...

MOST OF MY TENNIS BUSINESS IS DONE IN-PLAY THESE DAYS – ESPECIALLY ON THE WOMEN’S SIDE WHERE THERE IS A VARIATION IN LEVEL FROM DAY TO DAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DOWN THE RANKINGS TABLE YOU GET. Every trader will have their own comfort zone but the one thing that I would say is critical, is to go into every match prepared with data for the players in question, both from a long view and a shorter, more current view.

Serving, returning and performance on breakpoints (both BP’s for and against) are a selection of must haves but what is critical, is that the stats are relevant – I see so many systems and strategies advertised that whip together a selection of statistics (very good statistics) that contain a huge wedge of unbalancing data.

For example – last season, Victoria Azarenka had a service hold percentage of 69%, however, that includes a heap of matches against low ranked opposition, some of whom were ranked outside the Top 100.

Taking that figure to war when Vika is matched up against a better player could well lead a punter astray – for example, since 2012, the Belarussian is running at a hold percentage of just 59% against Na Li – a full 10% lower than here 2013 season average.

performing compared with a larger sample –are the players serving better, are they returning better and how these performance will impact on the history between the players.

The key is to integrate the head to head data with the players recent and long term history – players match up differently against each other and that’s why simply number crunching masses of overall data is useless.

Armed with these stats you will be able to form a prematch opinion about how a game could go, and your trading decisions over a range of scenarios. This will ensure you are basing your in-play bets on hard facts that are not only historical, but also over the short term too which takes into account the recent form of the players in question.

To give you a stat foundation, I’ve already supplied the ‘Hold’ and ‘Break’ percentages for a selection of top ranked women players for 2013 (see the table). One of the key comparisons would feature the improvement of a player in their weaker category – for example, Jankovic on serve or Stosur on return

THE ‘MUST-HAVE’ STATS...

Here’s my minimum ‘stat pack’ must-have prior to betting a match in running – all these stats can be sourced from the wtatennis.com website for the women’s game or atptennis.com for the men’s game…

• Hold percentage against opponent spanning at least 6 matches if possible…

• Hold percentage for the last 8 matches on the current surface… (short view) • Hold percentage for at least the last 6 months… (long view) • Break percentage against opponent spanning at least 6 matches if possible…

• Break percentage for last 8 matches on the current surface… (short view) • Break percentage for at least the last 6 months… (long view) With these figures in mind, you can quickly make a series of significant conclusions about how a player is currently

2013 Hold %

2013 Break %

S. Williams

85%

52%

M. Sharapova

80%

52%

N. Li

73%

48%

S. Stosur

73%

36%

A. Radwanska

73%

46%

S. Lisicki

72%

36%

P. Kvitova

71%

38%

V.Azarenka

69%

57%

C. Wozniacki

69%

44%

A. Ivanovic

69%

43%

A. Kerber

68%

44%

S. Stephens

67%

37%

J. Jankovic

62%

44%

S. Errani

57%

51%

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ISSUE 167 // Wednesday 08 January 2014

GRAND SLAMS 2014 // JERZY JANOWICZ

MR X FILES – JERZY JANOWICZ Since the pilot edition of the Insider in 2001 there have been two big priced ‘X Files’ articles – Roger Federer in 2002 (before he won a slam) and Novak Djokovic in 2007 (before he won a slam) – both of which landed big gambles for Insider subscribers.

I’m expecting my third X Files candidate to produce similar profits in 2014 – and that player is Jerzy Janowicz…

THIRD ROUND Lost to Almagro in three tight sets

THIRD ROUND Lost to Wawrinka in three tight sets

SEMI FINALS Lost to Andy Murray in four sets

FIRST ROUND A back injury cost him the in the US.

JERZY JANOWICZ – TENNIS GRAND SLAMS 2014 TIP

£1.00 – Each Way

STAKE

£1.00 – Each Way

150/1 (Minimum 100/1)

PRICE

125/1 (Minimum 100/1)

150/1 AT

125/1 AT

Jerzy Janowicz to win Wimbledon

TIP

Jerzy Janowicz to win the French Open

Jerzy Janowicz to win the US Open

£1.00

STAKE

TIP

Jerzy Janowicz to win the Australian Open

STAKE

January – September 2014

£1.00 – Each Way

50/1 (Minimum 40/1)

PRICE

After that breakthrough season, 2013 was always going to be a consolidation year – the toughest year after a big breakthrough season – but Jerzy was brilliant, going won 27 lost 20 with competitive performances over the likes of Nadal, Tsonga, Almagro, Berdych, Federer, Wawrinka, Murray and Ferrer.

JERZY JANOWICZ – TENNIS GRAND SLAMS 2013

PRICE

That performance in Paris was near on perfect from the Pole with wins over Tursunov, Serra, Kohlschreiber, Cilic, Murray, Tipsarevic and Simon – and if he hadn’t had to play eight matches in eight days, I’m confident he would’ve finished off with a win over Ferrer in the final.

We’ll take a small slice of his price in each of the four 2014 slam events…

TIP

2013 may have been the year that the Pole levered himself regular column inches on the sports pages but the real progress was made in 2012, a year when Jerzy started with a ranking outside the Top 200 and finished ranked 26 – a super season of tennis that culminated with a Masters Series runners up trophy.

A new coach, a challenging fitness regime, booking courts as a seeded player, bedding in the extra muscle, being a seeded player with a reputation – these are all major climate changes that Janowicz had to cope with in 2013… and where plenty of other players have failed, Jerzy, with his broad shoulders, cruised it.

Looking ahead, if I’m right about the Pole’s potential, some of the prices available about him doing a ‘Marat Safin’ in 2014 are massive and seem to be based solely on his 2013 performances. The bookies are clearly having a problem assessing his potency, but quite simply, he is never 100/1+ to win seven matches at a Grand Slam.

STAKE

At 23 years old, Janowicz is a little bit older that your usual breakthrough player, however there’s a valid reason for his late blooming – basically he didn’t have the money to compete so he had to do it the hard way despite being such an obvious talent

Which can only be a big positive when you are acclimatising yourself to being a Top 30 player.

PRICE

Make no mistake, this guy is very special. He has all the weapons that a 21st century tennis player must possess if he is going to make it in the fast lane of the ATP Tour and unlike some of the game’s talking horses (Grigor Dimitrov for example) this kid is totally focussed on his career rather than the trimmings that come with the fame of being a world class sportsman.

80/1 (Minimum 80/1)

50/1 AT

40/1AT

80/1 AT

sportingbet sporting bet

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds for 1,2 places.

[6]

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TENNIS 2014 // THE TREATMENT TABLE

THE TREATMENT TABLE The early tournaments of the season are rife with injury niggles and conditioning shortfalls – here’s a few crocked players that I’ve picked up on during the opening week of the season. I’ll be updating this list in your weekly Insider email…

Jelena Dokic – The Australian is trying to get back to form after missing most of 2012 with a serious wrist injury. Even when she’s fit Dokic’s play can be erratic and from what I’ve seen so far this season, the Australian has a long way to go

Ashleigh Barty – Withdrew from her home event – the Brisbane International – with a left abductor tear. This is bad news for Barty, however the doctors are suggesting that she’ll be fine for Melbourne

Marco Chiudinelli – The Swiss retired with back pain in Doha and might be a player to fade in the AO quallies. At 32 years old, back problems are often tough to shake

David Goffin – In just his second match back from wrist surgery, Goffin suffers a right quad injury in Noumea – Goffin has registered just one win since the US Open in September

Nick Kyrgios – The 18 year old is one of the future young Australian talents and it’s a shame to see him struggling with shoulder problems at the moment. He may have over practiced during the holiday season and the fact that he pulled from Brisbane suggests the situation could be serious enough to affect his AO bid

Alexander Kudryavtsev – After winning the first set against Bedene in Chennai, the Russian suffered a leg injury in the second set and had to call it a day with the score standing at 6-1 0-3

Alexandra Cadantu – The Romanian clay court specialist had some decent wins last year but she’s struggling right now with a shoulder injury and she could struggle over the upcoming weeks.

Alexandra has never won a match in Oceania and that record will continue if she can’t sort out her shoulder problems Jerzy Janowicz – The Pole was looking like a great partner for Radwanska in the 2014 Hopman Cup, but a foot problem ruled him out of the event.

Thankfully, the early signs are there is nothing serious and he is fancied to be fit for the big one Flavia Pennetta – The Italian pulled out of her Hopman Cup with Bouchard after feeling pain in her wrist – injuries like this can be lucrative for tennis punters Caroline Wozniacki – The Dane pulled from Brisbane with a shoulder injury which I gather is the product of a close season of serving at a cranked up pace. She seemed ok in practice at the weekend though

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – Retired against Kerber with left leg problems which is not a good sign at this stage of the season. Pav has never been the best of conditioned players and is paying for that with concurrent injuries

TENNIS – INJURY RULINGS There are three main betting rules that come into play when a game is not completed due to a player injury…

Match Complete Rule – Bookies that use this rule will void all bets if the match is not completed in full (William Hill, Stan James, BetVictor, Bet365, Paddy Power, Boylesports) 1 Set Rule – Bookies that use this rule will void all bets if there is less than one set completed (Betfair, Betdaq) 1 Ball Rule – Bookies that use this rule settle bets as long as there is at least one ball served (Ladbrokes, Coral)

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ISSUE 167 // Wednesday 08 January 2014

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Eight tips in total – including tournament Outright Winner picks for both the men’s and women’s Australian Open.

In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be turning my attention to Rugby League – ready for the start of the new Super League and NRL (Australian National Rugby League) seasons.

The issue will be on your doormats and available online on Wednesday 5th February.

A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

Mr X. AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2014 // 13 – 26 January 2014

Maria Sharapova

£1.50 – Each Way

£1.00 – Each Way

£10.00

£1.00 – Each Way

12/1 (Minimum 10/1)

50/1 (Minimum 40/1)

11/10 (Minimum Evens)

10/1 (Minimum 10/1)

12/1 AT

50/1 AT

11/10 AT

10/1 AT

10/1 AT

40/1 AT

EVENS AT

TIP

Serena Williams

STAKE

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

PRICE

TIP

Juan Martin del Potro

STAKE

OUTRIGHT WINNER – WOMEN’S

PRICE

OUTRIGHT WINNER – MEN’S

TENNIS GRAND SLAMS 2014 // January – September 2014

Jerzy Janowicz to win the French Open

Jerzy Janowicz to win Wimbledon

Jerzy Janowicz to win the US Open

STAKE

£1.00 – Each Way

£1.00 – Each Way

£1.00

£1.00 – Each Way

STAKE

150/1 (Minimum 100/1)

125/1 (Minimum 100/1)

50/1 (Minimum 40/1)

80/1 (Minimum 80/1)

PRICE

150/1 AT

125/1 AT

50/1 AT

40/1AT

TIP

TIP

Jerzy Janowicz to win the Australian Open

PRICE

JERZY JANOWICZ TO WIN A GRAND SLAM

80/1 AT

sportingbet sporting bet

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