The Insider - Ashes Winter Special - November 2013

THE

ISSUE 165 WEDNESDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2013

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ISSUE

CASH-IN DOWN UNDER THIS WINTER...

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

THE ASHES Series Correct Score SEE PAGES 1 & 2

We landed a couple of nice prices during the summer Ashes Series – 5/1 Aussie Top Bat and 3/1 England Top Bowler. And with the winter Series about to start Down Under, it’s time to strike our bets...

THE ASHES

I want to hit the bookies for six – and I’ve got a collection of bets that I’m hoping will do the business for us. Including wagers at 12/1, 10/1, 13/2 and 7/1 spread over five Ashes markets.

THE ASHES

Let’s kick off with a ‘dutch’ of four outcomes in the Series Correct Score market – the bookies have underestimated the Baggy Green for the forthcoming 2013/14 series and three of my four scores are taking full advantage of that fact…

THE ASHES

ASHES SERIES – CORRECT SCORE

THE ASHES

Top Australia Batsman.

SEE PAGE 3

Top Australia Bowler.

SEE PAGE 4

Top England Bowler.

SEE PAGE 5

For my money, the bookies have got their ‘starter prices’ for the Ashes Correct Score market very slightly adrift of where they should be and that has resulted in some value quotes about a few scores…

Stats Cheat Sheet.

OVERRATED ENGLAND…

Top England Batsman.

When you look at the match prices for the First Test (Australia favourites) – and then the prices for the Series Outright (England favourites) there is a fair bit of disparity – add to that the Australians’ decent record at the WACA (and the SCG for that matter) and there could be a situation where the English need to nick at least two results to stay in the contest.

SEE PAGE 6

THE ASHES SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

I’ve simulated the Series 10,000 times using some conservative prices to get a good price foundation – and I get the following results to 100%...

FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK

ISSUE 165 // Wednesday 20 November 2013

CRICKET AUSTRALIA

DIFF

-43.473

-3.406

-3.421

-3.425

-0.605

0.699

-1.784

-0.182 119.000 810.111 -7.025 -0.622

BEST PRICE

151.00

41.00

13.00

29.00

11.00

15.00

41.00

29.00

107.527 37.594

9.579

25.575 10.395 15.699 39.216 28.818 200.000 1111.111 18.975 6.878

SIM PRICE

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

3-1

3-2

4-0

SIM PRICE

99.010

35.971

9.515

BEST PRICE

101

34

10

19

8.5

13

DIFF

-1.990

1.971

-0.485

9.409

2.037

3.447

4-1

81.00

5-0

301.00

0-0

26.00

1-1

7.50

2-2

28.409 10.537 16.447 40.486 30.581 212.766

The Series Correct Score is the number down the centre of the grid in light green. The prices shaded in full team colours are the ones where there is a positive variance (in other words, betting value) between my price and that of the bookmakers. As you can see, the scores involving an Australia Series win are the ones where there is the most disparity…

The master prices used to generate the above score prices are basically fence sitting prices, where both England and Australia are priced up at approximately 2.75 (odds of 7/4) for each Test with England a very marginal favourite for a couple of the Tests…

Given the makeup of the teams it’s hard to massively disagree with that stance at this stage of events…

AVOID THE LOW SCORES Another factor we have to take into account is the low draw rate in Ashes Tests with only six draws in the last 51 Ashes matches – the likely pitch conditions need to be considered also with the rumours suggesting a set of grassy decks that have plenty of action in them.

I certainly wouldn’t be taking any of the low result scores – the 1-0 Australia with Stan James is wrong by quite a long way, but it’s still a 100/1 chance and one that is probably only available to the cleaner.

23

18

41

17.486 12.581 171.766

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

The scores I want to concentrate on are the 2-2, 2-1 and 3-1 scores…

The one score I really like the look of is the 2-2 score at 13/2 – simulated that is a 6.88 chance and I would say that’s a pretty solid price given it’s really an anti-draw bet.

The 3-1 Australia score looks a big price at 10/1 also – I make that a smidgen lower, but the first Test is crucial for that quote as the negative gearing is significant (in the event of an Australia win at their favoured Gabba)…

The 2-1’s to both England and Australia are a bit of value also – to get the two draws a little weather assistance would probably be needed, but we need to take into account a 2-1 lead going into the Fifth Test (at the SCG where the hosts have a great record) could see either side attempt to shut out for a draw.

Four bets for us then – all of which look a bit of value as a package

THE ASHES SERIES CORRECT SCORE Australia win 3-1

Australia win 2-1

England win 3-1

STAKE

£1.00

£1.00

£1.00

£1.00

STAKE

13/2 (Minimum 10/1)

10/1 (Minimum 10/1)

12/1 (Minimum 10/1)

9/1 (Minimum 9/1)

PRICE

13/2 AT

10/1 AT

12/1 AT

9/1 AT

[2]

TIP

TIP

DRAW – 2-2

PRICE

November 2013 – January 2014

InsiderBet.co.uk

THE ASHES – TOP AUSTRALIA BAT

TOP AUSTRALIA BAT The Australian batting line up doesn’t look too bad at all – in fact, if they stand up to the pressure and turn the vociferous support they will receive into good cricket, they will be very competitive…

Rogers at 1, Warner at 2, Watson at 3, Clarke at 4, Smith at 5, new sensation Bailey at 6 and Haddin at 7 – that’s how Lehmann wants to line up at the Gabba (6 bats and a wicket keeper) and as long as the likes of Watson and Clarke can stay fit I would see that shape sticking for the whole series.

TAKE THE VALUE ON CLARKE AND WARNER...

I’m backing two players against the field – Michael Clarke and David Warner, both of whom can be fancied to have a huge series for the Baggy Green…

Starting with my stronger bet of the two, Michael Clarke, and what a set of stats the Australian captain has when playing at home – his full figures are on page six, but the headline numbers (average of 64.93 with an SR of 57.57) are superb, and after an excellent (and at times desperately unlucky) performance in England, I’m happy to take 5/2 that he finishes on top of the Top Aussie Bat pile.

The only negative is his continued back problems, but as we saw in England, Cricket Australia’s medical staff

His lead up to the 2013/14 series couldn’t have been any different – he has managed to behave like a civilised human being since leaving England, get himself into terrific shape and play himself into form too with some super knocks for NSW including 4 centuries.

His average of 49.83 on home soil is not surprising at all with Warner lapping up the home support and I’m expecting another strong set of test performances by a player that loves these pitch conditions

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

I’m splitting my stake across the two players with 60% on Clarke at 5/2 and 40% on Warner at 5/1.

THE ASHES TOP AUSTRALIA BAT November 2013 – January 2014

TIP

That situation has gone quiet since the summer Ashes Series – in fact, the whole atmosphere has focussed in on the injury situations rather than any in-fighting which will help their cause over the upcoming months.

You and I backed David Warner in the summer and after serving his suspension, he never stood a chance of getting close to the top of the Australian Runs table – it wasn’t just the loss of matches that left Warner all at sea, it was the pressure of the return that really sunk the New South Welshman.

Michael Clarke

David Warner

STAKE

His return was blighted with inconsistency and by the time he started to find some form, it was too late – added to which his spat with Shane Watson (fuelled by Warner’s brother) certainly didn’t help either.

are working wonders with Clarke and can get him through another series.

£3.00

£2.00

PRICE

The Warner situation cost the Australians in the summer with their disciplinary action seeming illogical to me at the time. The Australian side was the only party that suffered whilst Warner got away with a small fine and a holiday in Africa with the ‘Australia A’ squad.

5/2 (5/2 Minimum)

5/1 (5/1 Minimum)

5/2 AT

5/1 AT

[3]

ISSUE 165 // Wednesday 20 November 2013

THE ASHES – TOP AUSTRALIA BOWLER

TOP AUSTRALIA BOWLER IN THE LAST SERIES, THE AUSTRALIAN BOWLING LINE UP WAS BEING SPOKEN OF AS THEIR STRENGTH, BUT IT WASN’T UNTIL RYAN HARRIS TOOK HIS PLACE THAT THE AUSTRALIANS REALLY STARTED TO CAUSE ENGLAND PROBLEMS. A fitness headline is never far away from the Australian squad and once again the physical wellbeing of Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris will be key to their team’s success.

Harris has had a history of injury niggles that have made backing up a Five Test Series a major problem – shoulder, back, hip, knee, ankle and Achilles issues have blighted his career but he hasn’t fared too badly of late and comes into this series well rested.

He just about made it through four matches in England and has been well conditioned by the medical staff over the past couple of months – enough to give him a decent shot at playing the full quota of Tests here. It should be remembered that some of those Tests in England were gruelling affairs on the body where wickets had to be earned – I’m expecting success to come at a cheaper cost here.

IT HAS TO BE HARRIS...

Harris has a great relationship with Lehmann going back to their Queensland days and after watching him in action at the National Cricket Centre in Brisbane I think he’s a good thing if he gets anywhere near a full quota of matches.

As far as Peter Siddle has been concerned, he’s the only member of the elite Australian bowling line up that can be relied upon to complete the full Series – the downside is that his record against the English (SR of 58.6) isn’t great, nor is his record in Australia (SR of 55.5).

Both Harris and Johnson have the bigger game and for Siddle to finish on top of the bowling pile, he would probably need both to break down at some stage

[4]

A bet on Harris is a bet on his ability to stay fit AND to take the most wickets and at a payoff of 5/2, I’m happy with that ‘double’

THE ASHES TOP AUSTRALIA BOWLER November 2013 – January 2014 TIP

Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle are big dangers for different reasons.

Johnson ‘can’ be a terrifyingly quick bowler at times and his figures Down Under illustrate just how destructive he can be in these conditions, however getting Mitch locked in to the target has proved tough and he has been terribly expensive on occasions – expensive for a guy that has an Ashes strike rate of 51.2

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

Ryan Harris

STAKE

Overall, Harris has a fantastic record against the English with a strike rate of 42.1 stretching seven matches, with 35 wickets at an average of just 21.45 – quite clearly illustrating how well he bowls to England’s batsmen.

£3.00

PRICE

His figures are dripping in quality – we have to remember his Australian form only consists of five tests compared to his overall test career that has seen Harris maintain a strike rate of 46.2 over the course of 30 innings.

5/2 (Minimum 5/2) 5/2 AT

InsiderBet.co.uk

THE ASHES – TOP ENGLAND BOWLER

TOP ENGLAND BOWLER THE THIRD SEAMER IS THE PROBLEM POSITION, OTHER THAN THAT WE’RE IN FOR THE BROAD, ANDERSON, SWANN BOWLING COMBO THAT HAS SERVED ENGLAND SO WELL OVER THE YEARS...

Tremlett looks to have secured a starting berth in Brisbane after he was passed fit to play last weekend but both Rankin and Finn will have conditions to suit at some stage during the series.

The conditioning of our bowlers worries me though – both Broad and Anderson struggled in the summer and it would be no surprise to see them miss part of this series. They have been looked after since the Ashes back in England, but with the conditions how they are, it could be a very long couple of months…

GRAEME SWANN YEAR-BY-YEAR YEAR MATCHES

WICKETS

AVG

2008

2

8

39.50

2009

12

54

27.92

I’m very surprised to see 4/1 chalked up about Graeme Swann…

2010

14

64

25.96

It’s widely regarded that spinners will struggle in Australia, but I’m not going to buy into that theory as Swann will still get lovely drift and he will also get lots of bounce.

2011

8

27

34.22

2012

14

59

29.93

2013

7

36

25.16

GREAT PRICE ON GRAEME...

Broad struggles away from England – his strike rate is not exceptional at the best of times and in 2010 he found conditions very hard to handle.

Jimmy Anderson is the favourite, but 29 wickets in eight Tests Down Under is not great and as his strike rate of 63.4 suggests (SR of 54 in England,) he is another than can find the Australian conditions on the tough side.

The third seamer position could go any one of three ways – indeed, if the player that takes to the field at the Gabba doesn’t have a good match we could well see a combination of Finn, Tremlett and Ranking playing some kind of part in this Series.

Tremlett is the favourite to line-up in Brisbane, but keeping that position for the whole series is a tough ask but he will revel in the conditions with a set of green tops on the cards.

There’s no doubting he has the stature to excel in these conditions, but he has struggled to get back to his best form after breaking down with a back injury and has made just one test appearance for England in the past two years

There are holes to be punched in the form of all of the squad bowlers, but it’s the fact that Swann’s workload will be as high as ever that just swings the market in his favour here. 4/1 is just too big about a player that I’m backing will have his best ever period of form Down Under

THE ASHES TOP ENGLAND BOWLER November 2013 – January 2014 TIP

Anderson and Broad are obviously the main dangers, but these conditions will be physically demanding for both players and given both struggled with their fitness in England earlier this year it’s no certainty that they are both 100% for the Five Tests.

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

Graeme Swann

STAKE

As you can see by his stats, Swann had a bad time of it in 2011, but he has bounced back to form nicely since and with experience of the conditions under his belt, can go well in 2013/14.

£3.00

PRICE

His figures Down Under are not good, but he has only played Five Tests out there and if you have a good look at his performance in 2012/13, you would have to expect a bit of improvement.

4/1 (Minimum 7/2) 4/1 AT

[5]

ISSUE 165 // Wednesday 20 November 2013

THE ASHES – STATS CHEAT SHEET

YOUR ASHES ‘CHEAT SHEET’ I wouldn’t say the conditions in Australia are unique, but they certainly suit some batsmen and bowlers more than others. And for that reason I have supplied statistics for both the players’ Test career and their career Down Under. It’s quick to pinpoint the players that are suited to the conditions better than others – Warner and Clarke are two such players that perform better with bat in hand in Australia – Alistair Cook is another.

I’ll be updating you on the situation in your weekly emails, but for now, here’s the batting and bowling data for both squads…

BATTING STATS

NO

RUNS

HS

AVE

BF

SR

100

50

0

4s

6s

Tests Australia

6 1

11 2

0 0

386 19

110 15

35.09 9.5

846 9.5

45.62 27

1 70.37

2 0

0 0

54 4

0 0

David Warner

Tests Australia

22 12

40 20

2 2

1401 897

180 180

36.86 49.83

2034 1105

68.87 81.17

3 3

8 4

2 1

168 105

14 12

Shane Watson

Tests Australia

46 18

85 32

2 2

2998 1284

176 120*

36.12 42.8

5836 2587

51.37 49.63

3 1

20 9

4 1

395 159

19 6

Michael Clarke

Tests Australia

97 47

164 74

17 10

7656 4156

329* 329*

52.08 64.93

13693 7218

55.91 57.57

24 14

27 13

8 2

965 452

35 15

Steve Smith

Test Australia

12 3

24 6

2 1

765 159

138* 54*

34.77 31.8

1534 324

49.86 49.07

1 0

5 1

0 0

77 15

10 0

Brad Haddin

Tests Australia

49 22

83 35

9 5

2514 1263

169 169

33.97 42.1

4441 2092

56.6 60.37

3 2

12 7

5 2

281 127

38 26

Michael Carberry

Tests 1st Class

1 148

2 256

0 22

64 10317

34 300*

32 44.08

140 19836

45.71 52.01

0 29

0 48

0

9

0 /

Alistair Cook

Tests Australia

97 10

173 17

10 1

7801 1042

294 235*

47.85 65.12

16585 2082

47.03 50.04

25 4

32 2

6 0

896 105

10 1

Jonathon Trott

Tests Australia

48 5

85 7

6 2

3744 445

226 168*

47.39 89.00

7911 883

47.32 50.39

9 2

18 1

5 1

441 52

0 0

Kevin Pietersen

Tests Australia

99 10

171 16

8 1

7887 850

227 227

48.38 56.66

12664 1574

62.27 54.00

23 2

33 4

10 1

960 98

76 3

Ian Bell

Tests Australia

93 10

160 16

21 1

6487 660

235 115

46.66 44.00

13111 1383

49.47 47.72

20 1

37 7

10 2

766 72

25 3

Joe Root

Tests Australia

11 53

21 90

2 11

763 3584

180 236

40.15 45.36

1829 7028

71.71 50.99

2 9

3 12

1 /

80 439

3 8

Matt Prior

Tests Australia

72 5

110 6

20 1

3813 2525

131* 118

42.36 50.4

6130 322

62.2 78.26

7 1

26 1

11 1

456 25

15 2

Jonny Bairstow

Tests 1st Class

12 79

20 131

2 20

544 4834

95 205

30.22 43.54

1128

48.22

0 8

4 31

0

70

2 /

WKTS

BBI

BBM

AVE ECON SR

5

10

MAT

INNS OVERS MDNS RUNS

Ryan Harris

Tests Australia

16 5

30 8

547.3 161.4

132 40

1581 460

71 17

7/117 6/47

9/106 9/106

22.26 27.05

2.88 2.84

46.2 57

4 1

0 0

Mitchell Johnson

Tests Australia

51 24

97 46

1889.4 925.2

334 170

6341 3039

205 114

8/61 8/61

11/159 11/159

30.93 26.65

3.35 3.28

55.3 48.7

7 4

2 1

Peter Siddle

Tests Australia

46 24

84 45

1631.5 862.5

420 234

4863 2548

167 94

6/54 6/54

9/104 9/104

29.11 27.1

2.98 2.95

58.6 55

8 5

0 0

Nathan Lyon

Tests Australia

25 11

48 22

924.5 419.1

190 94

2825 1210

85 36

7/94 4/63

9/165 7/88

33.23 33.61

3.05 2.88

65.2 69.8

3 0

0 0

Shane Watson

Tests Australia

46 18

69 26

736.3 312.4

187 73

2043 894

64 23

6/33 2/30

6/51 3/72

31.92 38.86

2.77 2.85

69 81.5

3 0

0 0

Stuart Broad

Tests Australia

62 2

112 4

2154.1 69.5

453 17

6637 161

217 2

7/44 1/18

11/121 1/71

30.58 80.5

3.08 59.5 2.3 209.5

10 0

2 0

Jimmy Anderson

Tests Australia

87 8

161 16

3201.1 306.3

745 68

9907 1038

329 29

7/43 4/44

11/71 7/127

30.11 35.79

3.09 3.38

58.3 63.4

15 0

2 0

Graeme Swann

Tests Australia

57 5

103 10

2416.1 219.1

472 43

7082 597

248 15

6/65 5/91

10/132 7/161

28.55 39.8

2.93 2.72

58.4 87.6

17 1

3 0

Steve Finn

Tests Australia

23 3

43 6

724.4 107.4

165 9

2646 464

90 14

6/125 6/125

6/150 6/150

33.14 33.14

4.3 4.3

46.1 46.1

1 1

0 0

Chris Tremlett

Tests Australia

11 3

21 6

447.4 122.3

109 28

1311 397

49 17

6/48 5/87

8/150 8/150

26.75 23.35

2.92 3.24

54.8 43.2

2 1

0 0

Mat = Matches Mdns = Maidens

[6]

INNS

Chris Rogers

BOWLING STATS

Key:

MAT

Inns = Innings NO = Not Out HS = Highest Score BF = Balls Faced SR = Strike Rate * = Not Out Wkts = Wickets BBI = Best Bowling in Innings BBM = Best Bowling in Match Econ = Economy (average no. of runs conceded per Over)

InsiderBet.co.uk

THE ASHES – TOP ENGLAND BAT

TOP ENGLAND BAT THERE’S NO DOUBTING THE TALENT OF OUR BATSMEN...

An in form Cook, Trott, Bell & Pietersen is a quartet that would set the foundations for a win against any side in the world. The problem is, there are serious question marks about two of that number, added to which the inexperienced Joe Root and Michael Carberry will both do very well to stand up to an aggressive pace attack in fast conditions.

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE CONTENDERS...

JONATHAN TROTT never got going in the summer and despite plenty of bowling machine work over the past couple of months, I’m still not confident of his ability against the short stuff, especially in these conditions. Great figures from his last Ashes tour Down Under though (average of 89.0 from the last Series in Australia) and will be in the mix.

KEVIN PIETERSEN is not 100% fit and despite his reassurances on twitter, there is a reason why his knee is breaking down and that is his technique which coupled with his aggression between the wickets has caused a serious level of bruising. Having cortisone injections prior to Brisbane is not ideal.

JOE ROOT is currently going through a steep learning curve and is likely to be shuffled down the order – batting at 6. A better Series is in store but whilst he’s fancied to relish the conditions, I couldn’t take just 8/1 he finishes the Top England Bat as a rookie in the conditions.

MICHAEL CARBERRY faces the same Ashes baptism of fire that Joe Root did in the summer – only difference being he has to do it over in Australia. I’m a fan of Carberry’s and I was delighted for the lad when he shared a partnership of 318 with Alistair Cook against Australia A in Hobart a couple of weeks ago – a performance that all but secured his position as opener.

That was against a weak attack though and he will do very well to cope with the new ball in these conditions as an Ashes rookie.

MATT PRIOR is another of the England team that is a little way off full fitness at the moment and coupled with his average form with the bat this year, he looks no value at 16/1 – Prior has been passed fit to play at the Gabba, but I’m not sure he’s at his best in these conditions either.

ALISTAIR COOK and IAN BELL dominate the England Top Bat market for me. They both have the experience of an Ashes Tour and physically, there is no reason to doubt their ability to contest the full Five Test Series...

THE ASHES

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

TIP

Alistair Cook

STAKE

£3.00

PRICE

TOP ENGLAND BAT

3/1 (Minimum 3/1) sportingbet sporting bet

TIP

3/1 AT

Ian Bell

STAKE

As far as Cook is concerned, the fact that the ball will be coming on to him in Australia is for me the key point – true, he’s not it the greatest of form when compared to some of his career best periods, but his patience in these conditions should produce runs and at 3/1 I’m a player. His average of 65.12 from ten tests is outstanding and in conditions that punish looseness, Cookie can thrive again

October 2013 – May 2014

£2.00

PRICE

Bell’s ability to deal with the short stuff will hold him in good stead and his struggles against the ‘wrong un’ won’t be tested out in full Down Under. He is a beautiful bat at 6 and will continue to score heavily in that position.

9/2 (Minimum 9/2) 9/2 AT

[7]

ISSUE 165 // Wednesday 20 November 2013

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Ten tips on the Ashes Winter Series...

In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be focusing on the 2014 Tennis season – looking at a range of season-long Specials markets, including Player Match Bets, Ranking Positions and Number of Tournament Wins. Plus an early look at January’s Australian Open. The issue will be on your doormats and available online on Wednesday 18th December.

A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

Mr X. THE ASHES SERIES CORRECT SCORE

10/1 (Minimum 10/1)

12/1 (Minimum 10/1)

9/1 (Minimum 9/1)

13/2 AT

10/1 AT

12/1 AT

9/1 AT

TOP AUSTRALIA BOWLER

TOP ENGLAND BOWLER

November 2013 – January 2014

November 2013 – January 2014

Ryan Harris

Graeme Swann

£3.00

£3.00

5/2 (Minimum 5/2)

4/1 (Minimum 7/2)

5/2 AT

TIP

13/2 (Minimum 10/1)

STAKE

£1.00

PRICE

£1.00

TIP

£1.00

STAKE

STAKE

£1.00

PRICE

TIP

England win 3-1

TIP

Australia win 2-1

STAKE

Australia win 3-1

PRICE

DRAW – 2-2

PRICE

November 2013 – January 2014

4/1 AT

Michael Clarke

David Warner

Alistair Cook

Ian Bell

£3.00

£2.00

£3.00

£2.00

STAKE

5/2 (5/2 Minimum)

5/1 (5/1 Minimum)

3/1 (Minimum 3/1)

9/2 (Minimum 9/2)

PRICE

5/2 AT

5/1 AT

3/1 AT

9/2 AT

TIP

TIP

November 2013 – January 2014

STAKE

TOP ENGLAND BAT

November 2013 – January 2014

PRICE

TOP AUSTRALIA BAT

sportingbet sporting bet

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