2016年7月
2016年第二季度
4 8 12 16 20 28 34 38 42 肯特基
这里是旧金山湾区房地产市场2016年第二季度的销售情况，还有之前10年的第四季度销 售数据回顾。 Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q2 Homes Sold Q2 '06
Q2 '07
Q2 '08
Q2 '09
Q2 '10
Q2 '11
Q2 '12
Q2 '13
Q2 '14
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
2,754
1,907
2,542
3,518
3,273
3,142
3,403
2,977
2,939
3,317
3,047
EAST BAY
814
749
613
556
681
676
810
823
798
821
777
MARIN COUNTY
665
684
494
440
574
555
680
786
773
715
704
NAPA COUNTY
317
279
247
307
336
356
419
374
357
363
354
SAN FRANCISCO (SFH)
781
637
655
557
675
685
726
747
629
643
634
SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS)
589
645
533
370
565
578
740
760
759
695
610
SILICON VALLEY
818
808
632
538
629
752
798
785
755
671
649
1,245
1,001
1,143
1,282
1,249
1,175
1,484
1,458
1,286
1,403
1,273
SONOMA VALLEY
125
113
97
123
136
121
176
174
164
174
130
LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH)
215
183
160
151
200
210
268
291
272
259
297
73
82
35
28
62
82
88
71
77
60
73
REGION CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
SONOMA COUNTY
LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS)
Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, MLSLSTINGS, TSIERRA, July 7, 2016.
Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.
2016年第二季度
Ellen Anderson Senior Vice President, Contra Costa County 925.743.9330 ellen.anderson@pacunion.com 101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526
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在2016年第二季度，康特拉科斯塔县的购房者有更多房产可供选择，房产储量较上一年有了较大增长。过去几个季度 购房者的热情有所减退，可能是厌倦了反复的价格战，抑或是由于房产供应情况有所改善。销售速度体现了市场状况 的正常化；六月初，房产待出售的时间较该季度初期时有所延长。 在高端市场中，200万美元以上的待售房产数量过剩——这在康特拉科斯塔县非常少见。自六月中旬起，只有五分之一 的高端房产签订了合同，定价过高的房产卖家不得不降低售价以及时吸引购房者。 前景：我们预计第三季度会出现典型的季节模式——七月和八月相对平静，九月学校开学后会迎来一个跳跃。购房者 可能有更多选择余地，卖家需要特别谨慎地制定价格策略，从而保证快速交易。
$1,300,000
$1,185,000 $1,100,000
$1,100,000
$1,069,000 $1,110,500 $1,099,000 $1,056,000 $1,049,000 $1,051,000 $1,010,000 $1,020,000
$1,182,500
$1,195,000
$1,179,000
$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
2.6 2.1
2.1 1.6 1.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.5 1.3
1.1 0.7 0.6
0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
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50 43
45
38
40
34
35 28
30 23
25 20
28
31
24
22
21
18
17
17
Apr-16
May-16
15 10 5 0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
50% 45% 40%
37.8%
36.7%
35.5%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
35%
32.9%
36.0%
36.6%
41.0% 35.8%
43.3%
40.1%
41.1% 36.6%
33.1%
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
104% 102%
101.7%
101.3% 99.8%
100%
99.3%
99.0%
99.5%
101.3%
101.5% 99.7%
99.1%
98.9%
98% 96.0%
96%
94.2% 94% 92% 90%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
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Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Alamo
$ 128,768,940
$ 127,506,025
-1%
74
67
-9%
27
35
30%
$ 1,562,720
$ 1,675,000
7%
Blackhawk
$
$
46,946,018
4%
26
26
0%
37
43
16%
$ 1,620,000
$ 1,617,500
0%
Danville
$ 262,462,918
$ 263,947,971
1%
209
198
-5%
18
16
-11%
$ 1,200,000
$ 1,240,000
3%
Diablo
$
$
7,075,000
-20%
4
4
0%
31
43
39%
$ 2,295,000
$ 1,750,000
-24%
Lafayette
$ 215,276,825
$ 137,795,299
-36%
129
89
-31%
20
20
0%
$ 1,439,000
$ 1,355,000
-6%
Moraga
$
54,737,012
$
54,555,500
0%
40
41
2%
14
32
129%
$ 1,255,000
$ 1,315,000
5%
Orinda
$ 131,817,525
$
117,228,906
-11%
86
74
-14%
19
16
-16%
$ 1,390,000
$ 1,412,500
2%
Pleasant Hill
$
$
59,686,025
-17%
108
81
-25%
19
15
-21%
$
$
730,000
12%
San Ramon
$ 243,728,808
$ 252,187,354
3%
229
226
-1%
14
16
14%
$ 1,022,000
$ 1,054,950
3%
Walnut Creek
$ 175,240,604
$ 200,213,283
14%
172
178
3%
19
15
-21%
$
$ 1,040,000
10%
45,016,500
8,808,000
72,286,623
650,500
947,000
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.
2016年第二季度
Pam Hoffman Senior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region 510.339.6460 phoffman@pacunion.com 1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611
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第二季度东湾的销售活动与去年同期类似——非常繁忙。事实上，作为2016年最活跃的一个季度，第二季度销量有所 下滑。六月份，我们发现市场轻微地向购房者倾斜，多方竞价减少，价格调整增多。尽管如此，东湾市场仍以卖方主 导，约80%的房产销售涉及多方竞价，且以高于原价的价格售出。 在该地区最受欢迎的街区内的理想房产仍以最高价格出售。在过去几个季度中，适宜步行且靠近旧金山湾区捷运系统 （BART）站点的房产最受购房者欢迎，售价在800,000美元到100万美元的房产销售情况良好。与其他太平洋联合公司的 地区不同，东湾的卖家大多数都在房源共享系统（MLS）登记，这有助于确保他们收到来自急切的购房者的最佳价格。 前景：房产存量不足仍困扰着东湾，我们预计这一趋势在可以预测的未来仍会持续，因此卖家仍然处于优势地位。夏 季末期的房产活动可能会逐渐减少，但我们预计，繁忙的秋季开始后，购房者数量不会短缺。
$1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000
$910,000 $918,500
$850,000
$865,000
Aug-15
Sep-15
$913,500
$925,000
Oct-15
Nov-15
$962,500 $877,500
$877,500
Dec-15
Jan-16
$1,007,500
$971,400
$965,000
May-16
Jun-16
$875,000
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.
1.9 1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5 1.2
1.3 1.1 0.9
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7 0.4
0.5 0.3 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.
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45
42
40 35 30 25 20
22 17
17
Jun-15
Jul-15
24 20
19
23
20
17
18
17
17
May-16
Jun-16
15 10 5 0
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.
60% 50%
50.6%
46.6%
42.6%
39.6%
51.8%
49.7%
46.5%
45.5%
55.6%
55.2%
51.2% 45.1% 37.4%
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.
120% 115.8% 115%
116.2% 114.9%
112.2%
110.6%
114.9%
114.6%
114.1%
112.7%
117.8%
112.3%
110.8%
110% 104.2%
105%
100%
95%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.
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East Bay Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Alameda
$ 104,659,500
$
91,430,794
-13%
107
90
-16%
16
15
-6%
$
889,000
$
922,500
4%
Albany
$
$
16,768,888
-46%
33
18
-45%
18
18
0%
$
950,000
$
852,000
-10%
Berkeley
$ 177,524,990
$ 207,664,979
17%
155
164
6%
16
16
0%
$ 1,030,000
$ 1,175,000
14%
El Cerrito
$
48,627,275
$
56,149,950
15%
61
67
10%
17
21
24%
$
775,000
$
800,000
3%
Kensington
$
19,109,168
$
17,735,050
-7%
20
17
-15%
18
16
-11%
$
897,500
$
930,000
4%
Oakland*
$ 393,019,824
$ 399,265,885
2%
399
385
-4%
21
19
-10%
$
858,000
$
925,000
8%
Piedmont
$ 105,532,378
$
46
36
-22%
15
13
-13%
$ 2,192,500
$ 2,151,000
-2%
31,206,950
81,211,060
-23%
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.
East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
11,517,369
-24%
38
26
-32%
60
28
-53%
$
400,000
$
453,435
13%
Over $500,000 $ 864,475,082
$ 858,709,237
-1%
783
751
-4%
17
17
0%
$
940,000
$ 1,000,000
6%
$500,000 $1 million
$ 294,327,087
-17%
453
376
-17%
17
18
6%
$
781,000
$
793,000
2%
$ 564,382,150
10%
330
375
14%
16
16
0%
$ 1,350,000
$ 1,352,000
0%
Under $500,000
$
15,205,003
$ 352,995,964
Over $1 million $
511,479,118
Q2 '16 $
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for SFH in the East Bay: Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.
Oakland Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Neighborhood Montclair / Joaquin Miller
Homes Sold Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Average Price % change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
102
96
-6%
$1,089,482
$1,145,632
5%
Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake
38
36
-5%
$1,137,920
$1,213,625
7%
Rockridge / Claremont
52
58
12%
$1,560,085
$1,495,481
-4%
Glenview / Oakmore
26
14
-46%
$890,442
$1,080,571
21%
Laurel / Dimond
30
30
0%
$666,116
$710,221
7%
Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights
29
27
-7%
$806,482
$838,803
4%
Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline
12
17
42%
$1,255,166
$1,433,308
14%
Temescal / Piedmont Ave.
19
12
-37%
$976,000
$1,087,500
11%
Source: EBRD, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.
2016年第二季度
Brent Thomson President, Marin County 415.383.1900 brent.thomson@pacunion.com 575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941
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马林县的购房者在第二季度采取更加谨慎的策略，没有上一季度典型的紧迫感。购房者较少参与价格战，很多购房者 都拒绝将就达不到其理想的房产。一些卖家发现他们的房产在市场上的滞售时间增长，因此考虑将其出租等待明年出 售。 即便如此，一流且定价合理的房产仍然广受关注并吸引了多方竞价。售价100万美元到300万美元的房产销售量最高。 与旧金山湾区的其他地方一样，马林县的房产储量持续紧张，降低了多数潜在买家的负担能力，他们正在等待价格稳 定从而能够搬迁落户。 前景：尽管我们预计，像以往一样，秋季的房产活动会有所好转，但2016年剩余的时间可能不会像以往几年那样繁 忙。即将到来的美国总统选举将带来诸多不确定性，也可能会使更多购房者变得谨慎，但无论全球或国内的政治局势 如何，马林县富有经验的房地产专家都不会恐慌。
$1,500,000 $1,300,000 $1,100,000
$1,112,000
$1,200,000
$1,201,908 $1,100,000 $1,055,000
$1,056,000
$1,153,500
$1,125,000
$1,222,500 $1,150,000
$1,250,000
$1,250,000
$965,000
$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
2.6
2.3
2.3 2.0
2.1 1.7 1.6
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.6 1.4
1.0
1.1
0.6
0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
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90 77
80 70 60
51
50 40
38
38
Jun-15
Jul-15
62
57 48
54
54 45 36
35
Apr-16
May-16
37
30 20 10 0
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
50% 45% 40%
43.3% 39.4%
36.7%
35%
31.2%
35.0% 30.8%
31.4%
30%
30.5%
40.6%
38.7% 35.6%
33.2%
26.7%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
104%
102.5%
101.6%
102% 100.2%
96.1%
96%
99.3%
98.3%
97.8%
98%
99.6%
99.7%
100%
96.5%
95.1%
95.8%
95.9%
Jan-16
Feb-16
94% 92% 90%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
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Marin County Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Belvedere
$
45,684,000
$
32,231,500
-29%
6
8
33%
939
55
-94%
$ 7,685,750
$ 3,260,000
-58%
Corte Madera
$
31,277,000
$
50,412,161
61%
22
33
50%
31
21
-32%
$ 1,316,000
$ 1,350,000
3%
Fairfax
$
22,898,875
$
33,288,178
45%
25
32
28%
32
38
19%
$
$
904,000
5%
Greenbrae
$
30,093,500
$
20,584,500
-32%
17
11
-35%
16
20
25%
$ 1,700,000
$ 1,800,000
6%
Kentfield
$
66,410,500
$
47,297,100
-29%
24
18
-25%
21
36
71%
$ 2,275,000
$ 2,185,000
-4%
Larkspur
$
28,386,216
$
37,415,500
32%
19
19
0%
34
18
-47%
$ 1,401,000
$ 1,925,000
37%
Mill Valley
$ 226,437,172
$ 194,047,406
-14%
124
108
-13%
36
34
-6%
$ 1,613,250
$ 1,544,500
-4%
Novato
$ 156,087,164
$ 156,585,796
0%
177
157
-11%
48
36
-25%
$
$
900,000
13%
Ross
$
28,120,000
$
70,476,450
151%
8
16
100%
37
31
-16%
$ 3,450,000
$ 3,037,500
-12%
San Anselmo
$
79,440,965
$
67,418,900
-15%
62
52
-16%
39
38
-3%
$ 1,131,000
$ 1,150,000
2%
San Rafael
$ 179,794,442
$ 183,732,764
2%
147
149
1%
41
35
-15%
$
980,000
$ 1,080,000
10%
Sausalito
$
34,350,250
$
46,506,250
35%
18
23
28%
91
46
-49%
$ 1,830,000
$ 1,915,000
5%
Tiburon
$
94,907,700
$
115,405,750
22%
35
40
14%
77
60
-22%
$ 2,545,000
$ 2,247,500
-12%
865,000
800,000
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.
2016年第二季度
Linda Carroll Regional Executive, Napa County 707.251.8805 linda.carroll@pacunion.com 944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559
pacificunion.cn
第二季度，纳帕县的房产销售活动十分活跃，尤其是与第一季度相比。这部分源于红酒之乡的季节性热潮，在此期间 购房者会等待这一地区迷人的春季到来，繁花盛开，给房产外观增加了额外的吸引力——特别是在高端房产市场。定 价低于200万美元的房产通常能很快售出；价格昂贵的房产需要花费更多时间寻找买家，因此实事求是的定价非常重 要。 目前纳帕县的买卖双方已达到平衡，多方竞价不再普遍，卖家通常不再收到加价。定价500,000与650,000美元的房产的 较为常见，因为准备购买更大房产的买家需要卖掉原有房产以购买自己的下一处房产。 前景：我们预计市场的当前势头会持续到第三季度初期，此后会出现夏季末期典型的减速。由夏季转入秋季后，房产 活动会恢复活跃，因为买家希望能够及时迁入新家欢度假期。
$800,000 $700,000
$600,000 $630,250
$620,000
$655,000
$685,000
$571,316
$600,000
$650,000 $649,000 $595,500 $579,500
$630,000
$650,826
$624,000
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.
6.1
5.7
5.1 4.3 4.1 3.1
3.6
3.4
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.1 1.1 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.
pacificunion.cn
120
112 102
100 80
92 71
72
85
72
94
80
78 68
60
60
51
40 20 0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.
30% 25%
23.5%
26.7%
24.2% 21.7%
20.9%
20%
16.8%
19.0%
24.8%
24.3%
Mar-16
Apr-16
26.7%
27.3%
May-16
Jun-16
19.9%
13.8%
15% 10% 5% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.
100% 96.5%
95.8%
96.4% 94.2%
95%
95.1%
95.0%
94.6%
95.6%
97.4%
96.0%
92.9% 89.4%
90% 84.4%
85%
80%
75%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.
pacificunion.cn
Napa County Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
American Canyon
$
16,528,900
$
18,338,354
11%
37
40
8%
45
68
51%
$
450,000
$
Angwin
$
3,065,000
$
3,914,000
28%
4
2
-50%
130
270
108%
$
747,500
$ 1,957,000
162%
Calistoga
$
17,883,700
$
14,794,000
-17%
18
17
-6%
88
89
1%
$
727,000
$
630,000
-13%
Napa
$ 176,308,705
$ 199,626,912
13%
258
255
-1%
67
57
-15%
$
599,975
$
632,000
5%
St. Helena
$
47,472,312
$
74,623,000
57%
33
32
-3%
180
93
-48%
$
885,000
$ 1,379,500
56%
Yountville
$
18,466,999
$
3,872,950
-79%
9
4
-56%
131
88
-33%
$
960,000
$
-5%
437,500
910,000
-3%
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.
Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
-26%
115
83
-28%
64
75
17%
$
412,000
$
425,000
3%
655,000
$
646,150
-1%
Under $500,000
$
$500,000 $999,999
$ 132,106,599
$ 134,440,694
2%
194
202
4%
77
52
-32%
$
$1 million - $3 million
$
72,556,062
$
93,285,829
29%
49
59
20%
112
83
-26%
$ 1,350,000
$ 1,350,000
0%
Over $3 million $
30,323,000
$
57,737,000
90%
5
10
100%
131
164
25%
$ 5,650,000
$ 4,825,000
-15%
44,843,955
$
33,128,193
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.
2016年第二季度
Patrick Barber President 415.929.7100 patrick.barber@pacunion.com 1699 Van Ness Avenue | San Francisco, CA 94109
pacificunion.cn
经过几年急速的价格上涨与漫天要价，旧金山的市场在第二季度逐渐趋于正常化。销量仍然稳固，但房产在市场上的 滞售时间比以往几个季度更长——特别是城市北部街区与广受欢迎的诺伊谷地区。主要原因是很多卖家抱有不切实际 的期望，并相应地对房产定价过高。因此，相较于去年第二季度，今年的价格战有所减少，降价也更加普遍。 2016年第二季度的销售速度不像2015年第二季度一样繁忙，但变化程度并不明显。在高端房产市场，很多希望购买大 房产的买家驻足观望，不确定其现有房产是否足以购买他们的目标房产。总之，尽管旧金山市场仍向卖家倾斜，但正 在缓慢地向更加平衡的状态发展。 前景：尽管旧金山的房地产需求旺盛，但我们预计在今年接下来的时间内，市场会更加趋于正常化，即使针对夏季末 期典型的减速进行调整。全球经济的不确定性，包括英国公投脱离欧盟组织的负面影响与中国金融市场的紧缩，都可 能导致这种平静趋势的节奏与深度扩大。
$1,500,000 $1,300,000
$1,300,000 $1,280,000
$1,270,000 $1,225,444 $1,155,000
$1,400,000 $1,352,500 $1,262,500 $1,201,500
$1,380,000 $1,360,000
$1,365,000
$1,175,000
$1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.
$1,300,000 $1,100,000
$1,139,000 $1,102,563
$1,110,500
$1,149,500
$1,050,000 $1,020,000
$1,124,500 $1,100,000 $1,100,000
$1,110,000
$1,158,000
$1,180,000 $1,105,000
$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.
pacificunion.cn
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.6 2.1 1.6
1.6
2.4 2.0
1.8
1.6
1.5
2.0
1.6
1.5 1.0
1.1 0.6 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.
3.6 3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0 2.6
2.6 2.1 1.6
1.9 1.4
1.9
2.3
2.3
May-16
Jun-16
2.0
1.9
1.5 1.1
1.1 0.6 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.
50 43
45 40 35 30
34 30
28
29
29
28
29
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
32
32 26
26
29
25 20 15 10 5 0
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.
pacificunion.cn
50
40
36
35 30
45
44
45
28
29
Jun-15
Jul-15
27
42 37
34
33
35
35
May-16
Jun-16
27
25 20 15 10 5 0
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.
37.8%
40% 35%
35.0%
35.0%
31.3%
33.0%
37.9% 35.7%
34.5%
32.7%
30.5%
30%
27.7%
27.4% 23.0%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.
45%
40.8%
40%
38.1% 34.6%
35%
29.6%
30%
34.1%
33.1%
30.1%
29.3% 24.7%
25%
30.9% 26.5%
23.6%
23.7%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.
pacificunion.cn
118% 116% 114%
116.4% 113.8% 112.2%
112%
111.7%
110.8%
110.3%
109.8%
110% 107.1%
108% 106%
108.4%
108.3%
107.0% 104.7%
103.9%
104% 102% 100% 98% 96%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.
110%
108.2%
108.3%
109.1% 108.2%
108% 106.5% 105.6%
106%
105.1%
104.9% 104.0%
104%
102.7% 101.8%
102%
103.4%
102.5%
100% 98%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.
pacificunion.cn
1:
Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.
2:
Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.
3:
Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights,
Oceanview. 4:
Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.
5:
Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.
6:
Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.
7:
Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.
8:
Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,
Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center. 9:
South of Market, Yerba Buena. 10:
Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach, Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood, Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.
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San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
District 1
$
142,822,688
$
112,480,000
-21%
67
57
-15%
19
26
37%
$
District 2
$
150,967,227
$
158,128,889
5%
121
121
0%
27
23
-15%
District 3
$
35,992,888
$
51,934,998
44%
38
51
34%
40
28
District 4
$
157,079,979
$
137,399,115
-13%
94
89
-5%
22
District 5
$
208,428,851
$
208,206,846
0%
86
90
5%
District 6
$
19,176,000
$
19,650,000
2%
8
8
District 7
$
218,309,814
$
185,134,001
-15%
31
District 8
$
18,127,000
$
21,940,000
21%
District 9
$
99,195,560
$
118,117,139
District 10
$
101,805,576
$
91,623,988
Q2 '16
% change
1,822,000
-3%
$ 1,171,200
$ 1,250,500
7%
-30%
$
$
926,000
4%
27
23%
$ 1,442,500
$ 1,500,000
4%
23
29
26%
$
$
1,955,000
-9%
0%
29
60
107%
$ 1,821,500
$ 2,650,000
45%
33
6%
30
52
73%
$
$
4,725,000
-1%
7
6
-14%
17
44
159%
$ 2,222,000
$ 3,185,000
43%
19%
63
76
21%
23
29
26%
$
1,460,000
$
1,385,000
-5%
-10%
128
103
-20%
36
29
-19%
$
773,944
$
850,000
10%
1,885,000
892,500
2,142,500
4,750,000
$
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.
San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
District 1
$
35,122,300
$
36,430,934
4%
30
34
13%
24
36
50%
$
District 2
$
14,823,000
$
10,373,000
-30%
12
10
-17%
28
33
18%
District 3
$
6,136,000
$
4,531,000
-26%
10
7
-30%
21
62
District 4
$
10,217,000
$
6,065,000
-41%
12
8
-33%
32
District 5
$
178,412,887
$
119,885,998
-33%
134
89
-34%
District 6
$
68,490,500
$
70,912,566
4%
59
60
District 7
$
89,262,201
$
123,320,170
38%
51
District 8
$
148,129,714
$
116,482,660
-21%
District 9
$
331,654,543
$
264,842,478
District 10
$
13,040,500
$
18,631,989
Q2 '16
% change
1,045,000
-13%
$ 1,375,000
$ 1,097,500
-20%
195%
$
607,500
$
620,000
2%
37
16%
$
840,000
$
662,500
-21%
20
27
35%
$
1,275,500
$
1,350,000
6%
2%
23
35
52%
$ 1,140,000
$ 1,220,000
7%
73
43%
23
28
22%
$
$
1,600,000
4%
108
104
-4%
36
35
-3%
$ 1,075,000
$ 1,038,000
-3%
-20%
260
199
-23%
39
45
15%
$
1,055,000
$
1,190,000
13%
43%
19
26
37%
52
50
-4%
$
715,000
$
686,944
-4%
1,206,500
1,540,000
$
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.
pacificunion.cn
San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Under $1 million
$
144,869,401
$
120,348,725
-17%
186
148
-20%
38
29
-24%
$
$1 million - $3 million
$
646,168,368
$
684,587,974
6%
394
425
8%
22
27
23%
Over $3 million $
360,867,814
$
299,678,277
-17%
63
61
-3%
28
42
50%
Q2 '16
% change
846,250
6%
$ 1,500,000
$ 1,475,000
-2%
$
$
3%
800,000
4,175,000
$
4,300,000
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.
San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Under $1 million
$
220,393,757
$
182,886,371
-17%
286
246
-14%
34
43
26%
$
$1 million - $2 million
$
468,449,811
$
433,283,527
-8%
338
310
-8%
27
32
19%
Over $2 million $
206,445,077
$
155,305,897
-25%
71
54
-24%
43
39
-9%
Q2 '16
% change
765,000
-6%
$ 1,350,000
$ 1,360,593
1%
$
$
-5%
810,000
2,630,000
$
2,492,500
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.
2016年第二季度
David Barca Vice President, Silicon Valley 650.314.7200 dbarca@pacunion.com 1706 El Camino Real, Suite 220 | Menlo Park CA 94025
pacificunion.cn
尽管第二季度硅谷地区的房价比去年有所增加，但市场体现出了逐渐正常化的迹象。价格战仍然是硅谷无法更改的事 实，但具有吸引力且定价合理的房产普遍能获得两到四个报价，而去年春天这样的房产能吸引六个以上的报价。与前 几个季度相比，购房者在报价时更加保守，很少会在房产一挂牌上市就蜂拥而上。卖家——特别是抱有不切实际价格 期望的卖家——很少愿意解决其房产的问题。 尽管定价300万美元以下的房产能够很快售出，但高端房产市场的销售速度有所下降。高端房产——即2000万美元以上 的房产——通常需要降价以吸引买家。 硅谷各个社区的房产年销售量有所下降，伍德赛德与波托拉谷的下降尤为明显。20%的房产没有在当地的房源共享系 统（MLS）登记，较上一季度的30%有所下降。 前景：在剩下的夏季时间内，该地区的销售活动将保持平稳，尤其是在最近房产储量有所增加的情况下。购房者度假 归来，学校开学后，我们预计秋季市场将真正活跃起来。
$3,600,000
$3,280,000
$3,100,000 $2,700,000 $2,600,000
$2,750,000 $2,700,000
$2,750,000
$2,641,500 $2,675,000 $2,612,500 $2,500,000
$2,825,000
$2,909,000
$2,835,000
$2,835,000
$2,100,000 $1,600,000 $1,100,000 $600,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
3.6 3.1
3.1
2.8
2.5 2.6 2.1
2.1 1.6
2.1 1.8
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.9 1.6 1.3
1.2
1.1 0.6 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these SIlicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
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45 40
37
39
35
30
30 25
22
20
20
23
24
30 25
24
28
21
18
15 10 5 0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
50%
40%
43.1%
41.9%
45%
37.9%
36.5%
35%
30.6%
30%
36.0%
33.2% 28.9%
26.7%
25%
19.1%
20%
33.6%
28.9% 19.8%
15% 10% 5% 0%
106%
Jun-15
Jul-15
104.9%
104%
Aug-15
Sep-15
104.2%
104.4%
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
104.7%
103.0%
102.5%
102.9%
102% 99.3%
99.4%
100% 98%
98.3%
98.4%
97.5%
96.7%
96% 94% 92%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
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Silicon Valley Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Atherton
$
201,072,000
$
188,586,030
-6%
29
25
-14%
43
62
44%
$
Los Altos*
$
301,346,479
$
282,820,125
-6%
101
95
-6%
13
17
31%
$ 2,701,000
$ 2,875,000
6%
Los Altos Hills
$
134,208,888
$
188,754,175
41%
32
44
38%
32
58
81%
$
$
3,550,000
-4%
Menlo Park**
$
210,925,500
$
216,280,225
3%
91
84
-8%
14
18
29%
$ 2,005,000
$ 2,262,500
13%
Palo Alto
$
351,550,574
$
363,138,143
3%
109
109
0%
14
22
57%
$
$
2,585,000
-4%
Portola Valley
$
81,078,000
$
74,882,700
-8%
25
25
0%
16
23
44%
$ 2,625,000
$ 2,800,000
7%
Woodside
$
129,027,279
$
105,536,000
-18%
31
18
-42%
56
56
0%
$ 2,500,000
$ 4,884,000
95%
5,300,000
3,705,000
2,699,000
$
6,325,000
19%
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Silicon Valley cities. *Excludes County area **Excludes east of U.S. 101
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$1,900,000 $1,700,000
$1,775,000
$1,800,000 $1,575,000 $1,550,000 $1,501,000
$1,600,000
$1,500,000
$1,770,000 $1,650,000
$1,530,000
$1,514,000
$1,740,000
$1,615,000
$1,460,000
$1,300,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
3.1
2.8
2.6 2.1
1.8
1.5
1.6 1.2 1.1
0.8
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.6 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
40 34
35 30 25
26
25 21
21
20
22
25
20
19
20
21
19
16
15 10 5 0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
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60% 50.5%
50%
47.1% 42.4%
43.6%
37.1%
40%
46.9%
43.2%
45.7%
45.7%
May-16
Jun-16
104.2%
104.2%
May-16
Jun-16
36.8%
36.3%
30%
44.1%
23.2%
20% 10% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
108% 107%
Mar-16
Apr-16
106.7%
106.7%
106%
Feb-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
105.3%
105.3%
104.7%
105% 104%
103.0%
103% 101.7%
102%
100.9%
101%
102.5%
102.0%
101.0%
100% 99% 98% 97%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
Mid-Peninsula Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Burlingame*
$
115,454,657
$
115,575,000
0%
53
53
0%
19
19
0%
$ 2,000,000
$ 2,090,000
4%
Hillsborough
$
133,932,366
$
152,105,832
14%
31
37
19%
28
33
18%
$ 4,050,000
$ 3,800,000
-6%
San Mateo**
$
248,154,453
$
231,500,870
-7%
169
159
-6%
17
17
0%
$ 1,340,000
$ 1,358,000
1%
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected San Mateo County cities. * Excludes Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center ** Excludes the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area
2016年第二季度
Rick Laws Senior Vice President, Sonoma County 707.547.3800 rick.laws@pacunion.com 3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403
pacificunion.cn
索诺玛县第二季度的销售量与去年同期持平，房价继续缓慢而稳定地攀升，部分原因是房产储量不断下降。目前，与 旧金山湾区的其他地区相比，索诺玛县的相对支付能力，连同出色的经济状况与始终保持在历史最低水平的利率都有 助于推动主要居所与第二居所市场的房产销售。 我们预计价格上涨与随之而来的支付能力的下降会在一定程度上抑制需求，但这种抑制作用尚不明显。目前为止，索 诺玛县的房产市场仍向卖家倾斜，但高端房产市场——即售价200万美元以上的房产——相对更加平衡。 前景：第二季度末期，房产储量与销售活动有所回升，但随着暑假来临，房产的关注度下降，我们预计第三季度初期 会出现减速。随着秋季到来，市场会重获契机，这与近几年的季节模式相一致。
$700,000 $600,000
$546,000
$545,000 $541,000
$541,500 $529,750
$526,750
$549,450
$556,250
Dec-15
Jan-16
$542,000
$560,000
Feb-16
Mar-16
$574,750
$580,500
Apr-16
May-16
$603,000
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.
3.1 2.5
2.6 2.1
2.1 1.7
1.7
Jun-15
Jul-15
2.5 2.2
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
1.5
1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.
pacificunion.cn
90
81
80
73
70 60
56
59
60
Jul-15
Aug-15
60
60
79 68
65
61
61 53
50 40 30 20 10 0
Jun-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.
45% 38.4%
40% 35%
34.5%
31.3% 27.9%
30%
27.7%
30.8%
33.2% 28.8%
36.0%
35.0%
34.8%
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
27.9% 24.8%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.
100%
99.5%
99%
99.1% 97.9%
98%
98.1%
97.7% 96.7%
97% 96%
97.4%
96.7%
96.4%
95.5%
95.1%
95% 94%
93.8%
93.9%
Dec-15
Jan-16
93% 92% 91% 90%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.
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Sonoma County Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Cloverdale
$
22,292,774
$
27,018,500
21%
43
51
5%
89
72
-19%
$
444,245
$
484,000
9%
Healdsburg
$
71,775,625
$ 103,350,577
44%
58
61
5%
78
78
0%
$
923,750
$ 1,055,000
14%
Petaluma
$ 107,955,884
$ 120,723,138
12%
166
168
1%
53
47
-11%
$
599,500
$
666,000
11%
Rohnert Park
$
$
7%
80
78
-3%
40
40
0%
$
480,000
$
520,000
8%
Santa Rosa
$ 352,204,271
$ 312,549,686
-11%
604
503
-17%
54
55
2%
$
499,000
$
535,000
7%
Sebastopol
$
45,598,800
$
56,007,004
23%
54
62
15%
63
49
-22%
$
717,500
$
841,000
17%
Windsor
$
51,647,375
$
47,524,650
-8%
81
78
-4%
48
62
29%
$
546,000
$
564,375
3%
38,487,800
41,138,410
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.
Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Under $1 million
$ 680,231,762
$ 651,187,333
-4%
1239
1,118
-10%
55
55
0%
$
$1 million and over
$ 269,803,802
$ 263,361,724
-2%
164
155
-5%
88
81
-8%
$ 1,294,500
515,000
Q2 '16
% change
560,000
9%
$ 1,295,000
0%
$
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.
2016年第二季度
Jill Silvas Regional Executive, Sonoma Valley 707.939.9500 jill.silvas@pacunion.com 135 West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476
冬季与初春时节，索诺玛谷的卖家普遍会推迟将其房产挂牌上市，等待春暖花开将房产以最好的姿态推出。这种趋势 在今年有所转变，导致第二季度末期挂牌上市的房产增加。对房产要价过于乐观的卖家会发现，市场无法满足他们的 愿望。第二季度结束时，很多卖家降价，房产在市场上滞售的时间超出了卖家预期。 尽管如此，这仍然是个繁忙的季度。一些卖家发现自身处境不同往常，购房者的选择余地较大，他们需要争夺购房 者。定价合理的房产会继续吸引多方竞价，但比去年大大减少。本季度开始时，100万美元以上的房产销量有所下降， 因为这一价位的房产储量增加。到五月份，房产供应紧张，这使买卖双方得到了较好的平衡。 前景：年底之前，旧金山湾区稳健的经济状况将对索诺玛谷的房产市场带来积极的影响。第二居所市场仍然活跃，希 望购买更大房产的买家也很繁忙，这为首次购房的买家创造了机会。随着价格上涨趋于正常化，最终成交价格可能略 低于卖家预期。
$800,000 $700,000
$637,000
$759,000
$740,000
$712,500
$675,000
$672,150
$640,000 $575,000
$600,000
$699,250 $633,000
$657,000
$652,500
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
$742,500
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.
4.6
4.1
3.9
4.1
3.1 2.6
3.8
3.4
3.6
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.1
2.1
2.6 2.1
2.4
2.2
1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.
pacificunion.cn
100 85
90 80 65
70 60 50
68 60
87 71
69
68 60
58
50
47
56
40 30 20 10 0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.
33.0%
35% 28.4%
30% 25%
24.9%
23.5%
25.0%
26.8%
25.2%
27.7%
21.8%
27.0% 22.6%
19.8%
20% 14.8%
15% 10% 5% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.
104% 102%
101.4% 98.8%
100% 98%
98.5%
96.7%
96%
98.2%
97.9%
96.5%
96.2%
95.9% 94.0%
93.5%
94%
91.0%
92%
89.4%
90% 88% 86% 84% 82%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.
pacificunion.cn
Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
$ 1,197,500
73%
Glen Ellen
$
6,865,375
$
16,869,865
146%
8
14
75%
80
78
-3%
$
Kenwood
$
7,560,500
$
10,730,000
42%
6
9
50%
58
87
50%
$ 1,081,250
$
830,000
-23%
Sonoma
$ 147,618,554
$
93,557,208
-37%
160
107
-33%
54
55
2%
$
$
681,000
5%
694,188
650,000
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.
2016年第二季度
Sally Gardner Regional Executive, Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 | Squaw Valley 530.584.6282 sally.gardner@pacunion.com
pacificunion.cn
太浩湖/肯特基地区主要为第二居所房产市场所占，因此其运行的参量不同于旧金山湾区。但该地区的很多购房者都在旧 金山湾区拥有家宅，因此房地产活动在内华达山脉有不可否认的影响。由于旧金山湾区的房价开始逐渐趋向正常化，近 期一些买家意外发现自己手头有多余的现金，并冒险尝试度假型房产，这有助于加速第二季度的销售速度并导致房产储 量下降。 卖家的定价比前几年更加实际，这是太浩湖另一个推动房产销售的因素。这吸引了更多购房者来到该地区，加快了销售 速度；在第二季度，具有吸引力、定价合理且位于优质社区的房产在几天之内就可成交。今年上半年的销售量与2015年同 期销售量持平，但平均售价增长了约13%。 前景：与旧金山湾区不同，太浩湖地区在夏季末期不会出现普遍的减速；度假的家庭希望在滑雪季节开始之前就锁定冬 季度假计划。我们预计目前良好的销售态势将持续到年底，但感恩节后可能会有所缓和。
$800,000
$727,500
$700,000 $600,000
$661,500 $560,000
$585,000
$577,500
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
$605,500
$579,000
$688,150 $630,000
$635,000
$595,000
$575,000
$550,000
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
$450,000 $400,000
$427,500 $391,500
$385,000
$375,000
$361,900
$356,000
$350,000
$335,000
$330,000
$372,000
$359,000
$321,000
$326,500
$315,000
$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Median sales price for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
9.1
8.1
8.1 7.1
6.8
6.9 5.5
6.1
5.9
6.5
6.4 4.8
5.1
6.4
5.9
5.7 4.8
4.7
Mar-16
Apr-16
4.1 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
14.1
12.6
12.3
12.1
11.1
10.1
9.0
11.7
11.7
12.1 10.2
8.4
11.1
10.9
May-16
Jun-16
7.8
8.1
6.4
6.1 4.1 2.1 0.1
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
160
148
140
130
95
100 80 60
112
111
120
80
81
Jul-15
Aug-15
89
130
98
107
74
59
40 20 0
Jun-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
200 173
180 160 140 120
107
107
128
122
119
110
103
120
92
100 80 60 40
55
42
48
20 0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
20%
18.4%
18%
16.8% 14.9%
16% 14%
12.1%
12.5%
10%
Aug-15
Sep-15
13.8%
13.4%
12%
15.7%
16.1%
11.1%
11.3%
Nov-15
Dec-15
14.8%
9.5%
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
14%
12.2%
11.2%
12%
11.0%
10% 7.7% 8%
7.7%
7.2%
6.1%
6.5%
Nov-15
Dec-15
8.3%
8.2%
Mar-16
Apr-16
10.5%
10.8%
May-16
Jun-16
6.5%
6% 4% 2% 0%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
98%
96.5%
96%
95.1%
94.5%
94%
92.9%
93.3%
93.4%
93.5%
93.4% 91.3%
90.6%
92%
92.4%
92.0%
90% 88%
86.8%
86% 84% 82% 80%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
97.1%
98% 96.5% 96%
95.9%
95.6%
96.3%
96.1% 95.1%
94%
92.8%
93.4%
93.9%
91.6%
92% 90.2%
89.9%
90% 88% 86%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Median Price Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Alpine Meadows
$
2,682,600
$
4,865,000
81%
4
6
50%
48
120
150%
$
673,800
$
800,000
19%
Donner Lake
$
5,647,180
$
1,525,500
-73%
8
3
-63%
154
34
-78%
$
562,500
$
496,500
-12%
Donner Summit
$
5,753,625
$
9,329,000
62%
12
12
0%
98
39
-60%
$
457,000
$
627,000
37%
Martis Valley
$
22,729,000
$
74,951,825
230%
22
40
82%
53
82
55%
$
492,000
$
619,500
26%
North Lake Tahoe
$
44,896,612
$
36,420,984
-19%
61
41
-33%
110
130
18%
$
560,000
$
542,000
-3%
Northstar
$
4,727,500
$
12,920,000
173%
6
11
83%
167
123
-26%
$
745,000
$
900,000
21%
Squaw Valley
$
2,219,000
$
13,190,000
494%
3
9
200%
214
471
120%
$
680,000
$
1,440,000
Tahoe City
$
13,627,500
$
24,147,984
77%
18
17
-6%
36
179
397%
$
625,000
$
720,000
15%
Tahoe Donner
$
31,943,300
$
35,309,406
11%
51
51
0%
55
51
-7%
$
555,000
$
600,000
8%
Truckee
$
37,799,051
$
95,940,175
154%
51
73
43%
52
83
60%
$
477,000
$
559,000
17%
West Shore
$
15,127,000
$
33,085,548
119%
23
34
48%
99
131
32%
$
560,000
$
708,024
26%
112%
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015 Sales Volume Q2 '15
Q2 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
Q2 '16
% change
Q2 '15
106%
2
4
100%
115
172
50%
$
n/a
4762500
1
n/a
0
14
n/a
$
n/a
0
0
n/a
0
0
n/a
$
Q2 '16
% change
Alpine Meadows
$
Donner Lake
$
Donner Summit
$
North Lake Tahoe
$
8,057,425
$
4,762,500
-41%
15
12
-20%
42
178
324%
$
290,000
$
313,250
8%
Northstar
$
4,387,250
$
4,424,473
1%
11
6
-45%
63
60
-5%
$
325,000
$
407,500
25%
Squaw Valley
$
1,815,000
$
1,976,500
9%
4
5
25%
249
121
-51%
$
290,000
$
389,000
34%
Tahoe City
$
5,685,425
$
3,473,500
-39%
8
8
0%
49
152
210%
$
349,500
$
313,250
-10%
Tahoe Donner
$
2,525,000
$
4,342,500
72%
9
16
78%
50
31
-38%
$
292,000
$
287,500
-2%
Truckee
$
6,027,808
$
14,753,000
145%
11
19
73%
78
94
21%
$
499,000
$
469,000
-6%
West Shore
$
$
701,500
n/a
0
2
n/a
0
112
n/a
$
$
350,750
n/a
595,000
$
1,223,000
-
$
699,000
-
$
-
-
$
327,500
10%
-
$
699,000
n/a
-
$
297,500
-
-
n/a
Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2016. Data is for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
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