COUNTING BEANS A DECLINE IN BRAZIL’S COFFEE PRODUCTION HAS POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOW THE WORLD SECURES AND CONSUMES THE BREWED BEVERAGE.
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razil harvested nearly 40 per cent less arabica coffee in 2021 compared to the previous year. It was also the least amount since 2009 according to a crop forecast. This loss, according to Bloomberg, is equivalent to about two thirds of US consumption. A survey via a European coffee roaster found 37 per cent of coffee consumers have been drinking more coffee per week since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, and 73 per cent of coffee drinkers report they have been making coffee at home more often since it began. A drop in coffee production could lead to a shortage. “There’s no line of trucks waiting to load coffee at the warehouses,” Regis Ricco, a Director at Minas Gerais-based RR Consultoria Rural, told Bloomberg. “Farmers send a truck with coffee to the warehouses, and a few hours later the truck is back, when normally it would take as long as a day. It is alarming.” The Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) surveys found that, until 6 August, harvesting activities had only reached 70 to 80 per cent of expected output. Due to the dry weather, and the lower volume of coffee to be harvested,
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the harvest progressed favourably from July onwards. CEPEA stated that harvesting this year was late compared to previous years due to later crop flowering in 2020, which consequently delayed the crop’s development. As a high volume of crops has already been harvested, CEPEA said that Brazilian coffee farmers have confirmed a crop failure for the 2021/22 season. “Agents have reported harvests lower than expected in some areas, besides lower-grade beans,” said CEPEA. “On the other hand, this season has been marked by beans of higher quality beverage, favoured by the dry weather during the harvesting.” On 13 August, the CEPEA/ESALQ index for Arabica coffee type six, which had been delivered to São Paulo city, closed at $196.25
