Insights
August 2020
Hoping For A Vaccine, While Living With Covid Rod Kamleshwaran of GainingEdge says data suggests it could be 2024 before the MICE industry fully bounces back. For now, we must work towards recovery in phases are broad indicators for the mee ngs, incen ves, conven ons, and exhibi ons, so full recovery of the MICE sector seems unlikely before 2024. And the pace and level of recovery will vary by region and business segment.
W
E don’t really know when the New Normal without Covid-19 will begin. Are we le ng hopes for a vaccine deter us from finding solu ons that let us live as close to normal as possible with Covid-19? Can we in the MICE industry do more if we can manage the risks and challenges that lay ahead? First, let’s look at where we are in terms of the MICE industry making a full recovery from Covid – and why it could be another three years before that comes: Ÿ
On July 30, the UN World Travel Organisa on reported that 40 per cent of des na ons have eased travel restric ons. On the same day, the World Health Organisa on issued
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Now let’s look at how we can get there. Emerging markets with robust trend growth are expected to recover earlier. Domes c markets will return before interna onal, and leisure segments will precede business segments. This crisis, however, is unprecedented and s ll evolving, so the full recovery period remains uncertain. So it helps to consider the recovery in phases. guidelines for resuming travel, saying travel bans cannot be indefinite. Ÿ We are now in a Transi on Phase where economic ac vity is resuming in a world inclusive of Covid-19. This phase will last un l widespread vaccina on, probably not before 2022, when the New Normal without the virus begins. Ÿ Also in July, IATA reports that passenger numbers for 2020 will drop by 55 per cent to 2006 levels, and may not recover to 2019 levels un l 2024. Ÿ Travel industry analysts STR predicted in June that United States’ hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) is unlikely to return to 2019 levels before 2023. Air traffic and hotel demand such as these
The ‘Transi on Phase’ Most countries have now moved from a “lockdown period” into this secondary “transi on phase”. The reopening is not just seen in countries and regions that have suppressed Covid-19, but also in those with high ac ve cases, and this comes with the risks of second waves of infec ons and the reimposi on of lockdowns. Some 115 des na ons including Australia, Canada and India con nue to keep their borders completely closed, while a gradual opening in the northern hemisphere is a ributed to the summer season, led by the opening of borders in the European Union from July 1.
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