GIS Analysis of Crime Incidence and Spatial Variation in Thiruvananthapuram City

International Journal of Remote Sensing Applications (IJRSA) Volume 6, 2016 doi: 10.14355/ijrsa.2016.06.001

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GIS Analysis of Crime Incidence and Spatial Variation in Thiruvananthapuram City Achu A L*1, Dr. R S Suja Rose2 Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Cartography, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Madurai Kamaraj University, India 1

Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Cartography, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Madurai Kamaraj University, India 2

1*

achugck0009@gmail.com

Abstract The rate of crime incidents is increasing in developing countries mainly due to the unequal distribution of wealth and societal status. The present study attempts to identify and explore the rate and spatial variation of crime in Thiruvananthapuram city for a period from 2010 to 2014. The improved computer based technologies like GIS and availability of Geographic data make it possible for law and enforcement agencies to create analytical maps and various analysis to identify the crime hotspot area .The hotspot analysis in Geographic Information System is helpful for the identification of crime hotspot through spatial auto correlation, spatial analysis and interpolation. The Moran's I test statistic of spatial auto correlation has been done prior to GetisOrd Gi* hotspot analysis to find out the clustering pattern as well as the outliers in the data. The crime hotspot analysis uses vectors to identify the locations of statistically significant crime hotspots and cold spots and IDW interpolation method is used for better visualization. These methods are applied on the crime data of Thiruvananthapuram city of Kerala state to find the hotspots for crime incidents like Murder, Robbery, Snatching and Theft.

Keywords GIS; Crime Analysis; Hotspot Identification; Getis-Ord Gi*; Thiruvananthapuram; IDW

Introduction Over the last few decades, worldwide socio-economic disorder leads to the increase in the rate of crime. Thus, the new technologies are adopted to obtain the information about criminality and reduce the rate of crime. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is one among the recent technological development which can act as a decision support system to find better solutions to reduce the crime.

The usage of Geographic Information Systems in knowledge storage, direction and display makes incident avoidance method more manageable, more practical and case specific. The results of GIS give a plan about the present status and occurrence of crime. Due to its spatial operation capability, GIS helps the stack holders to imagine and analyse the spatial associations between different crime types such as events and land use, to forecast future incidents. [8] Crime Mapping Research Centre at the National Institute of Justice categorized the hotspot detection and analysis methods as follows: visual interpretation, choropleth mappings, grid cell analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and cluster analysis [2] [5] [11]. The cartographic representation has some advantages such as visual analysis and statistics of crime, aggregate information in spatial matrix, produce thematic maps all of which help to communicate the results of the analysis [1]. Spatial incidents and hot spot analysis of Crime data can be visualized in three dimensional environment [6] [15]. A decision support system can be generated using GIS for Crime reduction and mapping [7]. They also focused on providing real time information resulting in efficient and effective decision support system to help multiple areas like Health, Defence, and Disaster and so on. Thematic maps can also be used to visualize the Hot spots and safe zones by interpolation methods like IDW or Kriging. [6] Study Area The development of any country depends a large extends on its state of security. Thiruvananthapuram is the capital city of Kerala state (Figure 1), the largest city of the state is located in the west coast of India and spread

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around 200 km2. The city has a population of 27 lakhs according to 2011 census. Thiruvananthapuram corporation area is having hundred wards with twenty four police stations (SCRB, 2014). The locations of these police stations are plotted in figure 1along with their jurisdiction boundaries. Study area lies between 76° 51'14''E to 77° 1' 29''E longitude and 8° 21' 45''N to 8° 36' 32''N latitudes. Thiruvananthapuram city is known for tourism as it is the temple city as well as a coastal area. The city is famous for coastal tourism, pilgrimage tourism and medical tourism for ayurvedic treatments. Sree Padmanabha temple, Kovalam beach, Vikaram Sarabhai Space Center, Archeological museum and Zoo are always the best attractions for the tourists. India’s Largest IT Park (Techno Park) is situated in Thiruvananthapuram city and contributes 80% of State’s Software export. Recent crime statistics from State Crime Records Bureau shows that the capital is not safe. Crimes against women and children are increasing per year. Being the capital city as well as the IT destination, the migrants contribute the major portion of the city population. Thus, the crimes like Snatching, Theft and Robbery are very high. IT professional are common victims of Snatching and Theft. It is necessary to reduce the crime rates and maintain the law and order of the city for better tourist attractions and keep up the IT growth. The development of any country depends a large extends on its state of security.

FIGURE 1 MAP OF THE STUDY AREA WITH POLICE STATION LOCATIONS.

Materials and Methodology One of the most common and innovative uses of crime mapping is to aggregate numerous crime events into hotspot maps [5]. The most important purpose of the Hot Spot analysis is to identify and generate the information needed to assist the decision makers in adapting sustainable measures to reduce and prevent crime in cities. The prediction of spatial pattern of crime with recorded crime data and Geographical Information System (GIS) is relatively recent and adoptable for further studies. Inverse Distance weighted method of interpolation has been used in this study to better visualization of the Hotpot analysis result.

Crime Data Sets Crime data set used for the present study is obtained from District Crime Records Bureau (DCRB), Thiruvananthapuram city of Kerala and is presented in the table 1. The data sets have the temporal crime data of Murder, Robbery, Snatching and theft from 2010 to 2014. A total of 2974 cases are registered during the 2010 to 2014 years and used for this study (see table 1). The crime data is attributed to the digitized ward map of Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. The police station locations are updated using Global Positioning System field survey.

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TABLE 1 CRIME INCIDENTS RECORDED IN THE STUDY AREA

YEAR

MURDER

ROBBERY

SNATCHING AND THEFT

2010-2011

15

76

645

2011-2012

8

79

592

2012-2013

14

101

439

2013-2014

10

73

378

2014-2015

13

59

472

Total

60

388

2526

GIS Analysis The Moran's I test statistic of spatial auto correlation has been done to measure the spatial auto correlation of the feature locations and its attribute values. This shows how the values are associated and evaluates whether the pattern expressed is clustered, dispersed, or random. If the Z score is a positive value, then it shows the tendency to cluster the values.

In order to identify statistically significant hot spots and cold spots, Getis-Ord Hotspot analysis was done. Hotspot analysis derives a Z-score and P-score. They indicate whether the observed spatial clustering of high or low values is more pronounced than one would expect in a random distribution of those same values. A high z-score and small p-value for a feature indicates a spatial clustering of high values.

A low negative z-score and small p-value indicates a spatial clustering of low values. The higher (or lower) the zscore, the more intense the clustering. A z-score near zero indicates no apparent spatial clustering (ESRI). For better visualization of hotspots and safe zones, IDW interpolation techniques has been used.

Results and Discussion Murder From 2010 to 2014, a total of 60 murders occurred in the city. Figure 2 shows the hot spots and safe zones of murder from 2010 to 2014 Nemom Police station is the Murder hotspot in Thiruvananthapuram city with a higher GiZ score of 1.45. Figure 2 also shows that crime intensity over the period was high and spatially clustered in the southerncentral portions of the city. This area is heart of the city and major buildings and activities are located here.

Vatiyurkav, Museum, Poojapura, Thiruvallom, Karamana, Thampanoor and Cantonment police stations are falling under this region. The safe zones with low GiZ score -1.1 and high P score of 0.266 are located to the northern portion of the city. Sreekariyam and Medical college police stations are the murder safe zones in Thiruvananthapuram city. Figure 2 still shows the overall murder and spatial distribution is very high in Thiruvananthapuram city area. The year 2010 witnessed the highest rate of murder (15) among the four year of study and 2011 has recorded lowest number of crime (8). However, the murder statistics shows that recent years witnessed a gradual decreasing of the murder rate. The socio economic aspect of this region is good.

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FIGURE 2 HOTSPOTS AND SAFE ZONES OF MURDER FROM 2010 TO 2014

FIGURE 3 HOTSPOTS AND SAFE ZONES OF ROBBERY FROM 2010 TO 2014

Robbery Robbery means attempting to take any valuable things from a victim by forcing or through illegal way. Figure 3 shows the spatial clustering of Robbery in Thiruvananthapuram city. Statistics reveals that the rate of Robbery is very high in the study area. From 2010 to 2014, a total of 388 robbery cases are reported with an average of 78 robberies per year. As shown in the figure 3, the maximum concentration are at the city center. Museum, Poojapura, Pettah, Cantonment, and Vanchiyoor, are the main Hotspots of the robbery with a GiZ score ranges from 1.80 to 1.60 and low P score of 0.5 to 0.7. Tampanoor, Fort, Karamana, Poonthura and Valiyathura Police stations also had higher GiZ score. These locations together contribute the entire robbery prominent area in the city. Safe zones are located in the northern and southern portion. While the central portion remains as the Hotspot area (figure 3), Thumba, Sreekariyam, Mannanthala, Kovalam, Medical College and Vizhijam police stations are falling under safe zones. This means that there are comparatively less concentration of such crimes.

Snatching and Theft Snatching and Theft is the most recorded crime in the city. A total of 2526 snatching and theft cases are reported in the last five years, on an average 505 snatching and theft are happening every year. In the year 2010 alone, there has been recorded 645 cases. This shows that the city is highly prone to this kind of crime activities. Figure 4 shows that the snatching and theft are concentrated in the central portion of the city. Museum, Poojapura, Pettah, Cantonment, Tampanoor and Vanchiyoor police stations are the main Hotspots of the snatching and theft cases with a GiZ score raging from 2.10 to 2.86 and low P score of >0.00415. They are located at the center of the city and the neighboring area under the police stations Medical College, Valiyathura, Peroorkada, Vatiyurkav, Karamana and Poonthura which are also showing higher concentration of Snatching and Theft. Central railway station, Central Bus terminal, major theaters are located in the central portion. This may also cause the higher rate of Snatching and Theft. Safe zones are distributed in northern and southern portion. Thumba, Sreekariyam,

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Mannanthala, Kovalam, Nemon and Vizhijam are the safe zones. Here, the average number of snatching and theft is very low compared to the Hotspots.

FIGURE 3 HOTSPOTS AND SAFE ZONES OF ROBBERY FROM 2010 TO 2014

FIGURE 4 HOTSPOTS AND SAFE ZONES OF SNATCHING AND THEFT FROM 2010 TO 2014

General Conclusion The statistics of National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) reveals that Kerala is one among the Crime prone states in India. Thiruvananthapuram city holds the second position in top crime recorded cities in the state. On an average 12 murder is happening every year in Thiruvananthapuram city which is higher value than any other cities in Kerala. Figure 5 histogram explains the year wise distribution of murder in the study area. We cannot point out any gradual decrease in the graph. While the histogram of robbery (figure 6) shows a decreasing trend since 2012.

Rate of robbery is very high in Thiruvananthapuram city. On an average 77 cases are being reported every year.

FIGURE 5 & 6 YEAR WISE DISTRIBUTION OF MURDER AND ROBBERY IN THE STUDY AREA

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FIGURE 7 YEAR WISE DISTRIBUTION OF SNATCHING AND THEFT IN THE STUDY AREA

Snatching and theft together contribute a total number of 2526 reported cases in study area. Average 505 cases are being reported every year. Figure 7 shows the histogram of year wise distribution of snatching and theft in the study area. 2013-2014 is marked the year with lower number of cases reported. From 2010 to 2013, there was a gradual decrease in the reported cases, but 2014 again snatching and theft increased. In 2013, there had 378 reported cases while it has been increased into 472 cases. However, Fort Police station is recorded to have the highest number of crime in the 5 year study with 428 cases in all above said category.

The study shows that central portion of the city is highly crime prone area. Hotspots of Murder, Robbery, Snatching and Theft are concentrated in the central portion. Museum, Poojapura, Pettah, Cantonment, Vanchiyoor, Thiruvallom, Karamana, Valiyathura, Peroorkada, Vatiyurkav, Fort and Museum are the area where higher rate of crime was reported from 2010 to 2014. All these police stations are located at the central portion of the city. Here, the rate of Snatching and Theft is very high. This shows the importance of vigilance and efficiency of the police department to control the petty crimes such as theft and snatching in this area. The slum population is higher in this area and these can also a factor which increases the rate of crime. The occupational structure of this population is poor. While Northern and southern portions are safe zones and low crime rate is reported. Sreekariyam, Vizhijam and Thumpa Police stations are safe zones for all four types of crimes. The city is well known for its tourism and IT. If the rate of crime may increase largely without control, it can affect the law and order as well as the growth of the city.

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