Key Findings Given recent data and trends, the city will be decades behind its goals unless the SFMTA takes urgent action, including getting to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, achieving 80% of all trips on low-carbon modes and other critical pieces of climate action that must happen, in addition to the actions identified in the Climate Roadmap.
Getting to Net-zero GHG Emissions from Transportation 1. The Climate Roadmap can help to realize the city’s 2040 net-zero goals by reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks by approximately 77% from 1990 levels.
Low-carbon and Priority Mode Share 1. The Climate Roadmap helps the SFMTA get closer to meeting the city’s 2030 mode share goal of 80% of trips made using low-carbon modes from about 50% of trips in 2022 to about 65% of trips by its goal year of 2030, just short of its goal. 2. The city eventually reaches an 80% low-carbon mode share sometime between 2035 and 2040, nearly a decade after its 2030 goal year. Of those trips, the majority is from trips made by transit, walking and bicycling, with remaining low-carbon trips from trips in vehicles with three or more people and electric vehicles.
2. This can only happen if the SFMTA begins to implement the actions within the next seven years, the city implements the other transportation and land use strategies in the Climate Action Plan, and the state and federal governments implement fuel efficiency measures.
Path to Net-zero GHG Emissions from Transportation (Annual CO2e Reductions compared to 1990 baseline)
Low-Carbon and Priority Mode Shares by Year with Climate Roadmap Actions 100%
2,500,000
90%
1990 baseline
80% 2,000,000
70% 60%
1,500,000
50% 40%
1,000,000
30% 20%
500,000
10%
2040 target
0% 2020 0 2020
2026
2030
2035
2040
Fuel Efficiency Increases
Climate Roadmap
Land Use Plans and Regional Investments
EV Mandate
2045
2050
Trendline from 1990-2020
2026
EVs and HOV3+
2030
2035
Walk, Bike, and Transit
2040
2050
Goal
Low-carbon and Priority Mode Shares By Year With Climate Roadmap Actions Source: See Appendix B: Methodology Details for Quantifying and Packaging Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions and Mode Shift to Low-carbon Modes.
Path to Net-Zero GHG Emissions from Transportation (Annual mtCO2e Reductions Compared to 1990 Baseline) 48
Source: See Appendix B: Methodology Details for Quantifying and Packaging Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions and Mode Shift to Low-carbon Modes.
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