Progress Toward our Goals Goal 1: Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2040 As of 2019, while San Francisco has reduced overall annual greenhouse gas emissions by 41% since 1990, it has only reduced annual greenhouse gas emissions from ground transportation (which includes cars, trucks and transit) by 26% since 1990, and reductions have slowed since 20171. Recent analysis
indicates that if the trend in reductions from 1990-2019 were to continue, San Francisco wouldn’t reach its greenhouse gas emissions reduction target from ground transportation until 2080, 40 years too late.
Goal 2: 80% of Trips on Low-Carbon Modes by 2030 In 2017, the city reached a mode share of 50% of trips made by transit, walking and bicycling. However,
the most recent data from 2021 indicates that the city is moving in the wrong direction, with more people driving alone and fewer people taking transit, partly due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2019 to 2021, the share of trips made by
driving alone increased by 16% (from about 31% of all trips in 2019 to about 36% of all trips in 2021), and the share of trips made by transit dropped by 50% (from about 22% of all trips in 2019 to about 11% of all trips in 2021) all while total trips have remained relatively constant.
San Francisco GHG Emissions from Ground Transportation 1990-2020 (mtCO2e, excludes maritime and off-road emissions)
Mode Share, 2021 Walk 24%
Drive Alone 35%
2,500,000 2,000,000
Transit 11%
1,500,000 1,000,000
Bicycle 3% Other 1%
500,000 0 1990 Actuals
2000
2010
2020
Goal (2040)
2030
2040
2050
Business-as-usual trendline
2060
2070
2080
Drive with Others 24%
TNC 2%
San Francisco Mode Share, 2021 Source: SFMTA Travel Decision Survey 2021.
Where we need to be
Percentage Point Change of Mode Share, 2019-2021 San Francisco Emissions from Cars, Trucks and Transit, 1990-2020 (mtCO2e, excludes maritime and off-road emissions) Source: San Francisco Department of the Environment, 2022.
10% 5%
Drive with Others, 8%
Drive Alone, 5% Other, 0%
0% -5%
Bicycle, 1%
Walk, 2%
TNC, -3%
-10% San Francisco Department of the Environment, 2022. Note: While the latest 2020 annual greenhouse gas emissions data from cars, trucks and transit is reflected above, 2020 was an anomaly. Recent evidence from a third-party source suggests that 2019, 2021 and 2022 travel patterns are more in line with the longer-term trends than 2020 travel patterns. Thus, since we do not have 2021 and 2022 data yet, we compared annual GHG emissions of 2019 rather than 2020.
1
14
-15%
Transit, -11% 15
Percentage Point Change of Mode Share, 2019-2021
