TAR106 - Nigeria Focus extract - Dec 18 / Jan 19

People to watch, key data and analysis to guide you through the political and economic year ahead

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THE AFRICA REPORT

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW DOUBLE EDITION • N° 106 • DECEMBER 2018 - JANUARY 2019

“We have retaken control”

Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo says that the laxity of the PDP era is over, as he talks security, education and growth

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

NIGERIA EDITION Algeria 550 DA • Belgium €5.90 • Canada CA$ 7.95 • DR Congo US$ 9 • Denmark 60 DK • DOM 8 € • Ethiopia 90 Birr • France €5.90 • Germany €5.90 • Ghana GH¢ 10 • Italy €5.90 • Kenya KES 410 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands €5.90 • Nigeria 800 NGN • Norway NK 70 • Portugal €5.90 • Rwanda RWF 6,000 • South Africa R40 (tax incl.) • Spain €5.90 • Sweden SEK 70 • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania TZS 10,000 • Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda UGX 10,000 • UK £4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 48 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA • Euro Zone €5.90

TAR106p001_NIGERIA.indd Toutes les pages

28/11/2018 16:48

NIGERIA EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW “We have retaken control”

Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo says that the laxity of the PDP era is over, as he talks security, education and growth

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54 country reports

People to watch, key data and analysis to guide you through the political and economic year ahead

N° 10 6 • DEC EM B ER 2018 - J A N U A R Y 2019

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54 country reports

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From left to right: King Mohammed VI, Muhammadu Buhari, Louise Mushikiwabo, Abiy Ahmed, Vladimir Putin, Christine Lagarde, Cyril Ramaphosa, João Lourenço, Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Angela Merkel.

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

“We have retaken control”

Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo says that the laxity of the PDP era is over, as he talks security, education and growth

THE AFRICA REPORT # 106 - DECEMBER 2018-JANUARY 2019

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP INTERNATIONAL EDITION Algeria 550 DA • Belgium €5.90 • Canada CA$ 7.95 • DR Congo US$ 9 • Denmark 60 DK • DOM 8 € • Ethiopia 90 Birr • France €5.90 • Germany €5.90 • Ghana GH¢ 10 • Italy €5.90 • Kenya KES 410 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands €5.90 • Nigeria 800 NGN • Norway NK 70 • Portugal €5.90 • Rwanda RWF 6,000 • South Africa R40 (tax incl.) • Spain €5.90 • Sweden SEK 70 • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania TZS 10,000 • Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda UGX 10,000 • UK £4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 48 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA • Euro Zone €5.90

NIGERIA EDITION Algeria 550 DA • Belgium €5.90 • Canada CA$ 7.95 • DR Congo US$ 9 • Denmark 60 DK • DOM 8 € • Ethiopia 90 Birr • France €5.90 • Germany €5.90 • Ghana GH¢ 10 • Italy €5.90 • Kenya KES 410 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands €5.90 • Nigeria 800 NGN • Norway NK 70 • Portugal €5.90 • Rwanda RWF 6,000 • South Africa R40 (tax incl.) • Spain €5.90 • Sweden SEK 70 • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania TZS 10,000 • Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda UGX 10,000 • UK £4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 48 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA • Euro Zone €5.90

Africa in

2019

06 EDITORIAL The human factor

COVER CREDITS: INTERNATIONAL EDITION: MAP; BAYO OMOBORIOWO/AP/SIPA; BRUNO LEVY FOR JA; PANG XINGLEI/XINHUA-REA; ELIOT BLONDET/POOL/REA; IMF; SIMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES; AMPE ROGERIO/AFP; ROMUALD MEIGNEUX/POOL/REA; XIE HUANCHI/XINHUA-REA; CHARLES PLATIAU/REUTERS; LAURENT CHAMUSSY/POOL/REA; KC NWAKALOR FOR TAR - NIGERIA EDITION: KC NWAKALOR FOR TAR

08 LETTERS 10 YEAR IN IMAGES 14 AFRICA IN 2019 The new world order and Africa 18 QUIZ

FRONTLINE 19 THE YEAR AHEAD What to watch in 2019 From women in charge to Africa’s coding promise, including our round-up of a bumper election year ahead 37 CALENDAR

POLITICS

19 40

98 INTERVIEW Peju Alatise The Nigerian artist chronicles her return to Lagos to open her own foundation

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53 NIGERIA Too close for comfort The Africa Report looks at the promises and performances of the top two contenders of the February 2019 presidential elections

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102 LOOKING AHEAD A guide to 2019 106 REVIEWS What we loved in 2018

COUNTRY PROFILES Your indispensable guide to the economic, political and social events that will dominate Africa’s 54 countries in 2019 108 INTRODUCTION

62 INTERVIEW Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili, presidential candidate, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria

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DOSSIER MINING

ART & LIFE

COUNTRY FOCUS

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80 LEADERS Ben Leo, CEO, Fraym

92 INTERVIEW Richard Young, CEO, Teranga Gold Corporation

48 INTERVIEW Julius Maada Bio, President, Sierra Leone

THE AFRICA REPORT

78 AFRICA IN 2019 How to hang on to your hat

88 MOZAMBIQUE Glittering graphite

46 AFRICA IN 2019 How to spot a reformer

68 SUBSIDIES The cost of cheaper petrol

72 INTERVIEW Shingai Mutasa, majority shareholder, Masawara Holdings The Zimbabwean tycoon shares his hopes for the country’s economy and the strategies its new government must adopt

84 A big, green mining machine Morocco’s OCP Group spends big in order to grab more of the international market

40 INTERVIEW Yemi Osinbajo, vice-president, Nigeria Osinbajo discusses how free-marketism does not hold all of the answers for Nigeria, and how the APC government plans to win voters

66 PEOPLE TO WATCH The big 2019 governorship races

BUSINESS

112 AFRICA IN 2019 How to make a continental deal

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115 SOUTHERN AFRICA 135 EAST AFRICA 155 CENTRAL AFRICA 169 WEST AFRICA 191 NORTH AFRICA

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THE AFRICA REPORT A Jeune Afrique Media Group publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

The human factor

A

57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

t the heart of the latest prognostications on Africa’s traj­ ectories are the people – another 500 million, the vast majority un­ der 30 – due to join the denizens of the continent’s cities over the next three decades. They should lay the groundwork for Africa’s great leap forward.

The demographic revolution super­charging incomes, which helped transform China and is currently coursing through India, is coming to Africa. From the boom in African film, music, art and lit­ erature, all feted internationally alongside its thriving network of tech companies, the continent al­ ready has the soft power to under­ pin such a demographic dividend.

But it is the lack of hard economic power – electricity generators, roads and ports, the backbone of an industrial revolution – that is holding back the project, even threatening to derail it. Heady talk of African lions challenging Asian tigers has dissipated among inter­ national financial institutions and even those consultancy companies whose market share is tied to a confected optimism.

Instead, there are more sombre voices warning that current pol­ icies are failing. Our correspond­ ents’ reports reflect the anger and frustration of the youth in so many countries. The latest report from the Mo Ibrahim Foundation sounds the loudest alarms on jobs and ed­ ucation. It points out that Africa’s national economies have grown by 40% on average over the past dec­ ade but with no real improvement in what Ibrahim calls sustainable economic opportunities.

“We see it as a loss,” Ibrahim tells The Africa Report. “The com­ modity windfall didn’t benefit the people.” It could also have been

used to finance an overhaul of school systems. “Our education system needs a revolution,” says Ibrahim. “We don’t need more bureaucrats. We need technical schools to adjust our system to the jobs market. If you want to build roads and power grids, who’s go­ ing to do this?” It’s hard to see that many governments – apart from Ethiopia, Morocco and Rwanda, perhaps joined by Nigeria and South Africa due to their economic weight – will coordinate the pol­ icies needed for such leaps in mod­ ernisation and industrialisation to create the needed jobs.

Off the agenda Africa’s of the World Bank and Inter national companies Monetary Fund in the should have wake of the structural the scale adjustment­era, indus­ trial policy is back in to serve the Africa. Again, the market and reason is people. A new report from South beat the Africa’s Institute for competition Security Studies ar­ gues that as 60% of Africa’s imports are manufactured goods, local companies should have the scale and skills to serve the market and beat competition.

Although ICT’s contribution to African economies works out at less than 5% of gross domestic product on average, the report says, its rapid expansion could allow pupils from cities to the most remote areas to access world­class learning materials.

It is difficult to overstate the ambition needed. Such a shift to local hubs of nimble manufactur­ ing operations amounts to an econ­ omic, even a political, revolution.

Yet a failure to push for change would be far riskier.

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY‑HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN R E S E A R CH & P R O D UCT I O N OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI RE G IO NA L E D I T O R CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) A RT & L I F E E D I T O R BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN S UB - E D I T O R ALISON CULLIFORD ERIN CONROY P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY CHLOE BAKER A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SYDONIE GHAYEB CAMILLE CHAUVIN CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) R E S E A R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY CLAIRE VATTEBLED FRANÇOIS GRIVELET XAVIER ROUSSEAU SALES A JUSTE TITRE Tel: (33) 9 70 75 81 77 contact‑ajt‑sifija@ajustetitres.fr CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 4 College Road Business Park College Road North Aston Clinton HP22 5EZ United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk ExpressMag 8275 Avenue Marco Polo Montréal, QC H1E 7K1, Canada T : +1 514 355 3333 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 ‑ $60 ‑ £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS ‑ FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19‑60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com PRINTER: SIEP 77 ‑ FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950‑4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

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GHANAIANS RISING THROUGH THE OIL RANKS

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DRC After Kabila, youur guide to the exit plan

• South Africa: Perfect storm for land reform • Ghana: The rollercoaster slows • Telecoms: Jumia’s battle for e-commerce

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he resolution of the [Ghana-Côte d’Ivoire] border dispute couldn’t have come at a better time. With the improvements in the oil price ATIKU ABUBAKAR as well, the country is starting to see some energy “I will injected back into the oil industry [‘Ghana: Local make Nigeria content has to be a priority’, TAR105 Nov 2018]. work On the subject of local content, it is impressive to see again” companies like Tullow and their contractors make efforts to walk the talk. I have witnessed locals rising through the ranks and being trusted with very active roles in management as well as engineering. There is still room for improvement. The agencies in charge of enforcing these regulations need to continuously monitor the companies in the sector and ensure their active commitment to maximising local content.

Lawrence Adu-Gyamfi, Ghana NIGERIA

The PDP candidate revs up his presidential campaign

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Abraaj would not have invested in Abraaj. The fact that their investee companies are still running smoothly and credibly raising funds is testament to this. Abraaj grew to great heights because they were good deal-makers, and they certainly proved that there are lucrative returns in ‘growth markets’.

Their ultimate undoing was in lax internal systems that undid any trust or credibility they had earned.

Wadzi Katsidzira, Principal Consultant, Taumba Advisory

Algeria 550 DA • Belgium €5.90 • Canada CA$ 7.95 • DR Congo US$ 9 • Denmark 60 DK • DOM 8 € • Ethiopia 130 Birr • France €5.90 • Germany €5.90 • Ghana GH¢ 12 • Italy €5.90 • Kenya KES 700 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands €5.90 • Nigeria 1300 NGN • Norway NK 70 • Portugal €5.90 • Rwanda RWF 6,000 • Sierra Leone LE 15,000 • South Africa R40 (tax incl.) • Spain €5.90 • Sweden SEK 70 • Switzerland 9.90 FS Tanzania TZS 10,000 • Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda UGX 10,000 • UK £4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 48 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA • Euro Zone €5.90

WOMEN IN BUSINESS

The presence of women in the business world at all levels plays an important role in the socio-economic WINE AND ASPIRATIONS of the aspirations and the condition of development of a country [‘50 a generation of young and economically influential women in business’, TAR102 Bobi Wine is shaking up Ugandan disenfranchised Ugandans, with July/Aug 2018]. There is still a lot to be politics – paradoxically, due to matters an outlook that is totally disconnected done in this area. The status of women that are actually beyond his doing from those who lead the country today. in society, their level of education, Hashim W. Mulangwa, Uganda supportive legislation, promoting [‘The Question’, TAR105 Nov 2018]. Bobi Wine is clearly a charismatic, ambitious work-life balance, improving attitudes young leader. As the ‘Ghetto President’ to hierarchy, and economic stability he has a good understanding of issues all contribute to the success of women GOOD DEAL-MAKERS, that affect young, desperate Ugandans in business. […] It is commonly reported BAD MANAGERS (mostly urban youth), a moderate that boards that have achieved a gender grasp of the policy solutions that could Strong governance and professionalbalance show significantly higher isation of operations are just address some of these challenges, and performance than boards that haven’t. as important for emerging market his politics are clearly rooted in values Therefore governments, institutions private-equity funds as they are for that speak to empowering Ugandans and corporations should use a variety and holding their leaders accountable. the companies they invest in [‘The fall of strategies to encourage more women of Abraaj’, TAR103 Sept 2018]. Based But the potency of Bobi Wine’s to hold strategic positions.

Ndeye Selbé Mbonj, Financial Audit on its own due diligence yardstick presence on the Ugandan political and Project Management, Senegal scene lies in the fact that he is a symbol for financial controls and governance, HOW TO GET YOUR COPY OF THE AFRICA REPORT

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Experience the Progress.

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The foremost international meeting for African CEOs, bankers and investors

Shaping the future of Africa

Save the date 7th edition

KIGALI

25 & 26 March 2019

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WHAT TO WATCH IN 2019 | FRONTLINE 37

calendar

AFRICAN UNION SUMMIT January

AfDB ANNUAL MEETINGS 20-24 May

ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA au.int

MALABO | EQUATORIAL GUINEA Back on African soil after Ahmedabad and Busan. afdb.org

MALAWI PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 21 May

WAIPEC 23-24 January LAGOS | NIGERIA The West African International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. waipec.com

SOUTH AFRICA GENERAL ELECTION May GUINEA-BISSAU PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION To be confirmed

INVESTING IN AFRICAN MINING INDABA 4-7 February

AFRICA ENERGY FORUM 11-14 June LISBON | PORTUGAL Global forum bringing together all the stakeholders in Africa’s energy future. africa-energy-forum.com

TOTAL AFRICA CUP OF NATIONS (AFCON) 15 June – 13 July CAMEROON The first 24-nation tournament kicks off in Cameroon. www.cafonline.com

DRC MINING WEEK 19-21 June LUBUMBASHI | DRC drcminingweek.com

NIGERIA OIL & GAS 1-4 July ABUJA | NIGERIA cwcnog.com

74th UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY 17-30 September NEW YORK | US un.org

WORLD BANK/IMF ANNUAL MEETINGS October imf.org

AFRICA OIL WEEK To be confirmed CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA africa-oilweek.com

AFRICA COM To be confirmed CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA africa.comworldseries.com

CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA miningindaba.com

NIGERIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 16 February ERIC LARRAYADIEU/CEO FORUM/JA

SENEGAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 24 February MO IBRAHIM GOVERNANCE WEEKEND April

AFRICA CEO FORUM 25-26 March KIGALI | RWANDA

ABIDJAN | COTE D’IVOIRE mo.ibrahim.foundation

The city of Kigali plays host to the Africa CEO Forum for the first time this March. In its 7th edition, the high-level meeting, which has earned its stripes as the continent’s premier private-sector event, is expected to gather at least 100 speakers and 1,500 participants from more than 70 countries, providing cutting-edge content and unmatched networking opportunities with top professionals in various industries. The annual highlight, the Africa CEO Forum Awards, will celebrate the best of African business, rewarding leaders and companies in categories including Private Equity of the Year, Most Promising Company of the Year and the highly coveted prize, Africa CEO of the Year. theafricaceoforum.com

ALGERIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION April THE AFRICA REPORT

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40

INTERVIE W

Yemi Osinbajo Vice-president, Nigeria

Selling our crown jewels isn’t the solution Ahead of the February 2019 elections, Nigeria’s vicepresident talks to The Africa Report about how freemarketism does not hold all the answers for Nigeria and how the APC government plans to win voters on issues like corruption, security and devolution

T

Interview by Eromo Egbejule and Patrick Smith in Abuja

his has been a testing three years for Yemi Osinbajo – an economic recession, proliferating security crises and now a resurgent opposition rallying for what most politologues think will be one of Nigeria’s closest-run elections. As soon as the election campaign opened on 18 November, Osinbajo set off on a regional tour to convince Nigerians to vote for his All Progressives Congress (APC).

Osinbajo is not a natural politician

and his careful delivery and considered statements are out of kilter with the revival of populist politics.

The Africa Report caught up with Osinbajo at the Presidential Wing at Abuja airport, just after he had attended the dedication of the Dunamis International Gospel Centre. Osinbajo soon snapped back into campaigning mode, with his critique of the opposition’s manifesto. Then he was ready to jump on a plane to address more meetings in Lagos.

Osinbajo’s outreach to people at town hall meetings and his criticism of those trading in identity politics have won

him a growing respect. A former law professor and a pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church, Osinbajo now comes across as the cool-headed technocrat.

But that is not the whole story.

Politics runs through his veins – not the partisan barracking style of politics, but one of organising communities to change society. Osinbajo is married to the granddaughter of nationalist leader Obafemi Awolowo. He sees the rapid development in those early independence years as holding important lessons for today’s political class.

Since Osinbajo took over the vice-presidency in May 2015, he has been put in charge of stabilising the economy against a backdrop of crashing oil prices and militant attacks in the Niger Delta. “A good man in a crisis,” said one of his colleagues, without much fear of contradiction.

And the crises have piled up. For much of 2017, there was intense speculation about the state of President Muhammadu Buhari’s health after lengthy trips to London for treatment.

Osinbajo temporarily took over as acting president in his absence and won more good reviews.

As he and Buhari take to the campaign trail, Osinbajo will need all his powers of persuasion. Buhari’s campaign director Rotimi Amaechi says that people will need to feel there is more money in their pockets. But the recovery

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FROM LAW TO POLITICS 8 March 1957 Born in Lagos 1978 Graduated with a bachelor’s degree in law from the University of Lagos 1997 Named head of the public law department at the University of Lagos 1999 Appointed Attorney General for Lagos State 2007 Became a senior partner at Simmons Cooper Partners

KC NWAKALOR FOR TAR

29 May 2015 Became vicepresident of Nigeria

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42 POLITICS

has been slow. The economy The opposition pres­ PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION is set to grow at 1.9% this year, idential candidate Atiku RESULT MAP 2015 slower than the birth rate.

Abubakar is promising SOKOTO Osinbajo has been stepping that his e conomic KATSINA up social investment prostrategy will promote YOBE JIGAWA BORNO ZAMFARA grammes, which he says have growth and be driven KANO by the market. brought 13 million Nigerians KEBBI into job creation schemes, a I don’t see anyGOMBE free school meals programme thing original about what KADUNA BAUCHI as well as a cash transfer he [Atiku] is saying or in ADAMWA NIGER programme for 300,000 his policy documents. He takes a few things from very poor households.

PLATEAU our Economic Recovery With a population KWARA NASARAWA nudging 200 million, it and Growth Plan (ERGP), TARABA OYO is a question of scale. a few sound bites here and EKITI OSUN KOGI BENUE If the government is there. We very strongly ONDO OGUN believe in markets, and we doing the right thing, ERUGU EDO LAGOS is it doing enough of the have always believed in a EBONYI ANAMBRA right thing for enough private sector-led economy.

All Progressives Congress (APC) CROSS DELTA IMO ABIA RIVER People’s Democratic Party (PDP) people? Or will the opposition under If you look at the ERGP, one of the key issues is how to flag-bearer Atiku Abubakar start to land BAYELSA RIVERS AKWA IBOM sell down some of the government’s some killer blows? Few are prepared to deeper fiscal place large bets either way. shares in our joint ventures. federalism and a clear vision for development are the TAR: What are the big issues for you Then do you favour a radical privati­ keys to addressing most of the chalin this election campaign? sation programme? lenges the nation faces.

YEMI OSINBAJO: Corruption, security The opposition saying that they’re The APC empanelled a committee and the economy. We have stemmed going to sell 90% of the Nigerian National chaired by governor Nasir El-Rufai Petroleum Corporation is neither here grand corruption, by which I mean the of Kaduna State to look at the issues. nor there. Between 2010 and 2014, the direct looting of state resources, the inThey came up with recommendaflation of contracts and various schemes country realised $383bn from oil and tions on geographical restructuring, like the ‘strategic alliance’ contracts in we can’t see the infrastructure that was revenue allocation, devolution of the oil and gas sector set to divert state meant to be built. So, if at that time all powers, the form of government and of our assets had been sold in some resources for personal gain. residency of citizens in states, and In terms of security, in direct contrast purported free-market operation, we increased community participation. to the hand-wringing, self-pity and The proposals are being deliberated in would have been in an absolute mess corruption which typified the People’s a wide-ranging and inclusive manner, today. At the moment we have all these Democratic Party (PDP) response to and we will be coming out with the joint ventures, the government is the Boko Haram, this administration official stance of the party. principal party in these joint ventures. has retaken the 14 local The real issue is fiscal prudence, good government areas that governance, ensuring that we are able In terms of security, our decisive were under the control to deal with corruption – especially positive action can be compared of Boko Haram and has fiscal corruption. with an era of supine helplessness I don’t think it’s a matter of just throwrestricted their attacks ing open everything. The first question to a limited geographical that ought to be answered by the opCould restructuring speed up eco­ area. Whereas in the past, people in nomic growth? places as far away as the Federal Capital position is what happened to all of the Stronger more autonomous states Territory slept with one eye open in fear resources that we’ve earned all this time?

Why do we think that selling the crown of attacks by the terrorist grouping. Of will lead to faster growth for the states course, there is still a lot more to be and consequently for the whole. Greater jewelstodayisasolutiontotheproblems? done in terms of security in general, devolution of powers is the way to go: We think that a gradual process putting in place strong systems to ensure good enabling state police and more control but the benefits of decisive positive over natural and other resources. The action are there to be compared with governance is the way to go.

Lagos State government, between 1999 an era of supine helplessness. and 2007 in particular, undertook a polSo you oppose shock therapy? icy of seeking to deepen the autonomy What is your reaction to the calls to When the opposition talks about deof the state and fiscal federalism by restructure the federation and devolve regulation, I mean these are the same more power from the centre? litigation. I was then attorney general people who say they want to deregI reject the idea that geographical of the state. In several cases before ulate the downstream oil sector and restructuring will magically solve our the Supreme Court, we challenged then they’re going to fix petrol prices problems. Good governance, honest the federal government’s fiscal and at N80-90. There is absolute confusion management of public resources, administrative hegemony. as to how they intend to execute THE AFRICA REPORT

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44 POLITICS

their economic policy. Their policies are not thought out. They are simply taking a look at our economic programme and trying to see what can be tweaked here and there. If you say, I want to deregulate, then you are saying let the markets determine the price.

But your government has retained a fuel subsidy regime?

We were determined to ensure that the abused subsidy regime was corrected.

The reason why subsidies have earned such a bad name is because we had several companies that were purportedly supplying petrol to the markets, so they would say they brought five cargos whereas they brought only one but they would claim subsidies for five. So there was what was called the subsidy scam and several companies and individuals are still being prosecuted.

Under the former regime, this scam was pervasive. What we have tried to do is to attempt to deregulate, but not completederegulation.Sothepetrolprice moved from 87 naira to about 145 naira a litre which is where it is today. It’s not a situation where different companies are coming with their claims and all of that. This is purely a government-funded subsidy and there is no room for abuse.

Do you think this fuel subsidy is a good use of state resources?

Most countries subsidise something or the other. You may have to subsidise agriculture or something else to enable the economy to go the way you want, empower people in the way that you

Yemi Osinbajo’s outreach to people at town hall meetings has won him a growing respect

want. Today we know that if there is a sudden shock and the subsidy is completely removed, transport prices, housing prices and food prices will go up. So the subsidy in our view holds down those prices. We think that this economy does not need a shock right now by removal of subsidies and the cost-push inflation which will result.

We are doing quite a bit in terms of funding. Giving micro-credit loans, loans to industry and giving loans to traders to improve consumer spending and all of that.

I’m one of those who believe that any purist, monetary theories belong in the realm of academia, not in practical economics. You’ve got to look at your circumstances, you’ve got to look at what is going on and you’ve got to make your calculations.

The IMF has its own doctrines and ideas. But it’s not a one-size-fits-all. You can’t make the same recommendations to Ghana as you would make to Croatia.

I think that there are substantial differences in the way that we want to approach the economy and calculations that we are making. So I am not certain that their recommendations ought to be accepted.

There is rising concern about the quality and availability of education in Nigeria. How are you addressing this?

Under its Every Child Counts policy, the government will focus on public education with the aim of democratising digital, functional skills and science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics literacy. The main tools utilised will see an uptake in coding, animation, robotics, design thinking and other computational skills, as well as critical thinking, collaboration, project management and skills that prepare children for the world of work.

The plan will also target a nationwide retraining effort to ensure teachers are able to impart the skills to revolutionise the sector. The third plank of the plan aims to remodel 10,000 schools per year to deliver the required outcome.

Atiku has said he would floatthenairaifhewinsthe This economy does not need a shock presidency. What would right now by removal of subsidies happen if he went through the policy like that? and the inflation which will result First is that it’s not up to This week the government floated him. At the central bank we have a mona $2.8bn eurobond. How sustainaetary policy committee that determines many of these parameters and there’s the ble is this borrowing, given the high percentage of state revenues spent on central bank governor. I’m surprised that he [Atiku] would say that. debt service?

We believe that we should as much Our debt-to-GDP [gross domestic product] profile is quite low: The public as possible allow in the markets where debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 18.4% by the naira is concerned. If you look at our ERGP and several of our other policies, the middle of this year. We are reducing we’ve pushed in that direction. We also the debt overhang that has been stifling investmentandgrowth.UptoN2.2trillion think that it has to be gradual. ($6.1bn)indebtisowedtostates,contractors, electricity distribution companies, The International Monetary Fund the export expansion grant, on judgment (IMF) has been highly critical of debt and pensioners, amongst others left Nigeria’s exchange rate policy. What’s your response? unpaid [by the last PDP government].

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AVERTORIAL

Hold on tight – expect more volatility in 2019 with potential bright spots for Africa 2018 may be remembered as the year when volatility reappeared – whether in the markets or politically (think trade wars and the October market falls) - and there are reasons to believe that 2019 will bring more of the same.

Trade wars, European politics, pressures in some emerging markets are just a few of the issues facing world leaders in 2019. Africa will not be immune to the blowback from these forces.

The AfDB is actively partnering with other African institutions like the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) and others to pool their resources in order to increase lending. For instance, in 2018, AfDB used US$500 million of credit insurance from ATl to cover the risks on a portion of its lending portfolio in order to better leverage existing capital, de-risking this to support more projects in more countries across Africa.

Take the case of the US sanctions imposed on Iran in May 2017: we’ve already seen the impact on East African countries, which have had to stop importing lower cost liquefied petroleum gas. Added to this, these countries will also have to find alternative export markets for their tea, of which Iran has a 20% market share. In Kenya alone tea exports to Iran generated US$1.4 billion in revenue for Kenya’s market in 2017.

To counter the risk narrative that sometimes halts investment flows to Africa, ATI provides innovative guarantee solutions. Last year, ATI worked directly with some member governments helping attract US$10 billion worth of investments into their economies. With ATI’s involvement, governments were able to structure attractive borrowing solutions that attracted more competitive lending at longer tenures. In this way, ATI is assisting governments to manage debt levels while crowding in new investors for African debt. Ultimately, this enables governments to deliver on vital new infrastructure and investment.

But where there are challenges, ATI also sees opportunities for investors. As the world continues to spin unpredictably, Africa is showing signs that it is now seriously looking to build its own domestic markets and to strengthen African institutions to fill existing market gaps – African solutions for African problems.

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is a prime example.

This agreement brings together 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of over US$2 trillion.The agreement commits countries to imminent removal of tariffs on 90% of goods with the remainder to be phased in later to significantly increase the levels of intra-African trade.

With these types of African solutions, Africa can take control of its own destiny. If the continent continues to build from within, whenn the fog clears the world may take noticee of mic a stronger, more resilient and dynam Africa growing its way to be the invesstor destination of choice for the 21st Century.

Another example is the void that African institutions are starting to fill. For instance, with stagnating levels of foreign aid, limited investment insurance capacity and finite appetite for African risk by international lending institutions, African governments are also turning inwards for solutions.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) and Afreximbank are both institutions that have stepped up lending and guarantees to address some of these market gaps.

www.ati-aca.org

Email: Africanrisks@ati-aca.org

George Otieno CEO, African Trade Insurance Agency

46 POLITICS

AFRICA IN

W

How to spot a reformer

hen you scan the political horizon for reformers, it is the helter-skelter advance of 42-year-old Abiy Ahmed, since he was appointed Ethiopia’s prime minister on 27 March, that stands out. But as a leader trying to reform his country’s political, economic and security systems all at the same time, Abiy is not alone.

His fellow fast-track reformers – Cyril Ramaphosa in South Africa and João Lourenço in Angola – have another 20 years apiece of experience in frontline politics. But they too are dealing with the type of threats confronting Abiy as they try to crack down on vested interests, retrieve stolen funds and find ways to boost investment in education and health.

Allthree–Abiy,RamaphosaandLourenço–saythat without determined reforms, their countries face a destabilising decline. But they are all making powerful enemies. When disgruntled soldiers marched into Abiy’s office in Addis Ababa on 11 October, their ostensible mission was to negotiate better pay.

A week later, Abiy told parliament that the soldiers had wanted to derail his reforms. And some had wanted to kill him. Abiy, a former lieutenant-colonel, had defused things by calling in television cameras and organising a strenuous session of push-ups. In the following days, Abiy announced a new cabinet, half of whom were women and many young technocrats. He then appointed the country’s first woman president, Sahle-Work Zewde, a renowned diplomat.

The next act of the saga – the arrest of Brigadier General Kinfe Dagnew near the Sudan border – was also relayed on Ethiopia’s state television. The arrest in November of Kinfe, ex-managing director of the military’s METEC company, along with several other senior officers and intelligence officials was a decisive consolidation of Abiy’s power.

Both Ramaphosa and Lourenço had to push through changes in police and security organisations before they could tackle the vested interests siphoning off state funds. Both had allies in the security system.

By the time Lourenço won the presidential election in August 2017, some generals had accused outgoing leader José dos Santos of grand corruption. One suggested that his daughter Isabel should face trial.

Lourenço’s record as defence minister came in useful.

Since January, Lourenço has appointed 62 admirals and generals and retired 58 of the old guard. Now he wants to halve the country’s military juggernaut, the 100,000-strong Forças Armadas Angolanas. Defence eats up gargantuan amount of money – 21% of state spending – dominated by a clique of securocrats and business oligarchs.

That largesse compares poorly with 11.3% of state spending for education and 7.4% for health.

Ramaphosa faced a more diffuse security threat althoughhewonthepresidencyoftheAfricanNational Congress (ANC) at the party’s elective conference in December 2017. Jacob Zuma had planned to stay as state president until elections due in 2019. As a former chief of the ANC’s intelligence organisation, Zuma had seeded all the key state institutions – police, judiciary, revenue collection and parastatals – with security operatives as well as his political allies.

Ramaphosa, who helped negotiate the country’s liberal-democratic constitution, is struggling to purge those institutions. His first success came as pressure was mounting on Zuma to quit the presidency in February. A special investigations unit raided a sprawling Johannesburg mansion belonging to the Gupta family, Zuma’s favoured business associates, on St Valentine’s Day. It was a sign that Ramaphosa had amassed enough allies in the police and security services, as well as the national prosecution agency.

Six hours later, Zuma resigned after a rambling interview with the state broadcaster.

Seizing control of the security services is necessary but not sufficient to launch fast-track reforms.

Unlike Lourenço and Rampahosa, who succeeded

Seizing control of security services is necessary but not sufficient to launch fast-track reforms unpopular leaders accused of corruption, Abiy took over from a leader, Hailemariam Desalegn, who had resigned having failed to persuade the securocrats of the necessity of radical reform.

Although Lourenço and Ramaphosa can claim to have popular mandates of a sort, Abiy’s power derives from winning 108 votes from the ruling party’s 170-member council. Days after he took THE AFRICA REPORT

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POLITICS 47

over the premiership, Abiy went on the road addressing crowds and speaking to officials in the Somali, Oromo and Tigray regions. It took months of coalition-building in Ethiopia’s nine regions before Abiy made his most audacious move. That was his peace ouverture to Eritrea – in the face of opposition from the Tigrayan-dominated high command.

Following that up with a flight to Asmara to open direct negotiations with President Issayas Afewerki upped the risks but got results. Families were re­ united, and communications and flights between the two states restarted, resulting in an economic uplift for both sides. Abiy has several more challenges – such as reforming the federal system and opening up the economy to private capital – before he organises elections in 2020, which he promises to be the country’s freest ever.

focus on the economic agenda: navigating out of the financial crisis with debt levels at over 70% of gross domestic product and inflation nudging 25% before long-delayed reforms of the oil, gas and agriculture sectors. Finding a way to retrieve an estimated $30bn held outside the country would help.

Ramaphosa’s strategy is less centralised than Abiy’s or Lourenço’s, but has been slower

Lourenço’s strike rate is lower but significant. In both Angola and Ethiopia, the lack of institutions holding government to account means that progressive changes depend on centralised power, above all of the committed leader. If the chief rows back, the process stutters.

Lourenço prepared well for the ruling party’s congress, winkling out functionaries still loyal to the former president and his family. The party congress in SeptemberpushedoutDosSantos,whohadwantedto stay as party leader for another year, and overhauled the political bureau. That has freed Lourenço to THE AFRICA REPORT

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As South Africa has much stronger institutions and a more modern economy, Ramaphosa’s strategy is less centralised than Abiy’s or Lourenço’s. But it has beenslowerandmoreproblematic.Popularsentiment hit peak-Ramaphoria in March. Then it undulated as Zuma allies showed their grip on the ANC machine.

They reminded Ramaphosa that he may control the party at the centre but not in the provinces.

Ramaphosa’s friends now say they underestimated the extent to which corrupt business interests penetrated state institutions under Zuma. Ramaphosa’s response, reminiscent of the Rainbow Nation era under Nelson Mandela, is to set up commissions investigating state capture, tax collection and the Public Investment Corporation.

Before elections due next year Ramaphosa must deliver on demands for land reform, but perhaps trickiest of all, he has to reform the structure of the ANC, where his own support base is open to challenges.

53

Nigeria

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP

Me, myself and I: Atiku Abubakar on the campaign trail

Too close for comfort The Africa Report looks at the promises and performances of the two top contenders for the February 2019 presidential race as they trade insults, outline their platforms and rally their regional bases.

For analysts on both sides the election boils down to who do people trust to get Nigeria out of its doldrums

By Eromo Egbejule in Lagos and Patrick Smith

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T

wenty years after the return to civilian rule, Nigerians will be voting in national elections next February that could shape the country’s direction for decades.

Without decisive action, Nigeria and its oil-dominated economy risk getting stuck in a pattern of chronic underperformance, despite the formidable entrepreneurial skills of its people.

To reach anywhere near their potential, dynamic new farming and food-processing companies, together with telecoms and creative and digital

54 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

THE SOUTH WEST IS KEY

Although the two main parties – and their candidates, President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – accept this prescription, the election turns on which side people trust to raise and manage the tens of billions of dollars needed to jump-start this economic transition.

At the start of the year, Buhari and the APC had a commanding lead in the opinion polls, due not only to his strong support in the north but also because the opposition PDP was in disarray. A group of high level defections from the ruling party, along with backing for Atiku from some of the top northern generals, has swung things in the opposition’s favour.

Political insiders reckon that the APC will take a commanding lead in the North East and the North West; the PDP will do the same in South East and South South. In the North Central region, which has been plagued by clashes between herders and farmers

INFLATION AND REAL GDP GROWTH (annual percent change)

20

Inflation rate, average consumer prices

15 10 5 Real GDP growth

0 -5 2000

2005

2010

that are sometimes exploited and exacerbated by politicians, the PDP could make some big gains over its 2015 performance.

But the critical swing region will be the South West, where the APC won by 2.4m votes to the PDP’s1.8m in 2015.

If the PDP can put on another million votes in the North Central and South West, boost the turnout in its base regions and make inroads into the north – its candidate Atiku is from the North East – it may be on the road to victory.

After the economy went into recession in 2016 in the wake of the oil price crash, the risks of a longer slowdown are evident. In March, the Washington DC-based Brookings Institution reported that Nigeria had overtaken India as the country with

Corruption, character and the role of the citizen APC activists are already gearing IF BUSINESSES, LARGE AND SMALL, up to attack the PDP’s Atiku want to influence the election, the Abubakar over how he built up role of the talakawa (citizen) is more finance for his companies while problematic, says Idayat Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy directing the Nigeria Customs Service, his naming in a Senate and Development in Abuja. Along investigation over malfeasance linked with other activists, Hassan has been urging the national assembly to pass to a petroleum industry training fund, electoral reforms to clamp down and his links to William J. Jefferson, on vote rigging. Corruption will a US congressman jailed for bribing Nigerian politicians in 2007. be centre stage in the polls, Hassan As those claims swirl, Hassan says: “The All Progressives Congress [APC] and its supporters selling the says, voters may be left with a choice between “fighting [Muhammadu] Buhari corruption [Buhari] or candidacy will insist on his unimpeachable bolstering the economy anti-corruption [Atiku].” Like many credentials but others, he sees a clear new voters registered dividing line between the also that the People’s in the 16 months to top two candidates in Democratic Party August 2018, bringing is a failed branch that terms of both character the electoral roll up plundered the country.” and policy. to 84 million people E.E. & P.S.

14.5m

SOURCE: INEC

SOURCE: WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (OCT. 2018)

enterprises, will need heavy investment in the business environment and the wider economy. That means much higher spending on education and training, together with a herculean building programme of roads, railways and power stations.

2015

2020

the highest number of people living in extreme poverty, with 87 million, compared to India’s 73 million.

That grim trend, and how to reverse it, will be a recurring theme in the campaign. Everyone agrees that economic imperatives overwhelm all others, but differences over policy, even on the structure of government, are wider than ever. For Deji Adeyanju, convener for the Concerned Nigerians group, “the election is a referendum on poverty and hunger […] because things have never been this bad before”.

Alongside the economic pressures, Adeyanju reckons the government has failed on security and human rights, referring to an attack by the Boko Haram militia on a school in Dapchi in north-east Nigeria in February as well as its handling of the army clashes with Shia Muslims, who had been protesting against the continued detention of their leader, Ibrahim Zakzaky. Amnesty International says that more than 40 people were killed in the Zakzaky demonstrations; the Nigerian army puts the casualties at nine.

HELD BACK BY CIRCUMSTANCE

In the face of growing criticism from civil society groups, President Buhari is doubling down on his pledges to diversify the economy, combat corruption and defeat violent extremists. Those policies gave him an overwhelming victory in the 2015 elections. Reality turned out differently after he took power with the first two years of his government held back by crashing oil prices and his own ill health.

Information minister Lai Mohammed tells The Africa Report that, despite the tough conditions, Buhari has delivered on “the pocketbook issues in the election”: supporting farmers

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56 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

to boost rice, maize and sugar ports have been broken. Our telephone production and stepping up spending companies are no longer a law to themon roads, bridges and power stations. selves. Banks can no longer make a fortune out of sitting on government “And the PDP still has a bad reputation on security, corruption and building funds – your money,’ he writes. infrastructure,” Mohammed says.

Yet, on the ground the progress is Rotimi Amaechi, the former governor slow. A report by the Lagos Chamber of of Rivers State who is now transport Commerce and Industry in September minister and director of Buhari’s said Nigeria’s economy was losing about N6.5trn ($18bn) a year in direct re-election campaign, concedes it revenues and lost business due to will be a much harder-fought election than the last but he reckons it will bureaucratic red tape, congestion, and come down to a matter corruption at the ports, of confidence in Buhari. despite the government’s reform programme.

That, insists Amaechi, is In agriculture, encourstill running high in the north and in the key swing aging rice farmers as a Amount Nigeria raised region of the South West. means to diversify the in eurobonds from the In a strange twist of economy is making slow London market on 14 political positioning, progress, too. Local rice November to help fund the budget deficit production has increased Abba Kyari, Buhari’s by more than 50% to 3.7m chief of staff, conjures tonnes over the past six years. But that up an ongoing struggle between the is just over half of domestic demand, government and Nigeria’s establishwhich means a shortfall of 3.4m tonnes. ment and associated vested interests.

In the medium term, the slack will be In an spiky opinion column headed taken up by investors such as Olam and ‘Nigeria is changing for the better and Aliko Dangote, who is setting up plants our failed elite has every reason to be terrified’, Kyari writes about ‘the legacy to process more than a million tonnes of of corruption and incompetence’ of the rice a year. In the short term, however, PDP, which ruled Nigeria from 1999with rice imports due to be banned at 2015 (see www.theafricareport.com). the end of 2018, much of the shortfall may come from rice smuggled across SLOW PACE OF REFORMS the border from Benin. Speeding up that After listing some of the government’s shift to local agricultural production will require still more investment in big transport projects, Kyari claims the government is winning the battle against better seeds, roads, warehousing and vested interests: ‘Cosy cartels at our farming and processing equipment.

SOURCE: REUTERS

$2.86bn

Buhari promises to take Nigeria the ‘Next Level’, though first he has to get back to baseline

The Buhari government’s other economic policy instincts have prompted deeper scrutiny, such as its ambiguous position on fuel subsidies (see page 68). Formally, the government said it would abandon universal subsidies, which have been misused in the past by local traders, and target help towards the neediest people. It also promised much greater accountability in the oil and gas industry. So the government may be embarrassed by a Senate investigation into the state oil company’s use of dividends of $1.1bn from a gas export subsidiary to finance subsidies on fuel this year.

FUEL EVEN CHEAPER?

Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and the PDP have their own policy contradictions. In the first few days of the campaign, Atiku promised to lower fuel prices, although, thanks to the subsidy, Nigeria already has one of the lowest gasoline prices in the world.

Yet, in the party’s manifesto it pledges to deregulate the downstream oil sector, implying an end to subsidies.

Atiku’s slick 63-page manifesto, premised on the slogan ‘Get Nigeria working again’, sets out his promises: market-driven economic policies, deregulation and much more privatisation. It looks geared to attract the party’s business supporters,

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58 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

Security

3.4/10

Initial gains in the fight against Boko Haram have since been overturned. Military formations and aid workers are being attacked.

A farmer-herder crisis in the Middle Belt and a kidnapping scourge in the North West add to general insecurity nationwide.

Exchange rate

2.4/10

Corruption

5/10

The Treasury Single Account is a long-term reform whose benefits will be visible with hindsight. Nevertheless, Buhari loses credit for backing Kano governor Umar Ganduje, exposed on video for taking kickbacks. Members of the presidential cabinet have also been exposed in shady deals. None have been prosecuted so far, and few corruption cases have been concluded.

Protecting the value of the naira despite a collapse in revenue after the crash of the oil price in late 2014 burned through tens of billions of dollars.

Some economists complain that the central bank is printing money to keep the administration afloat. The naira traded at 158 to the US dollar in 2015 and is now at 363.

Power

4.2/10

An additional 2,000MW of generating capacity is due to come online, but earlier in the year as many as seven firms generated zero megawatts. Firms complain that the government is forcing them to reduce tariffs instead of letting the market determine them.

THE BUHARI-OMETER

After internal debate, we are happy to provide this wholly unscientific scorecard of Buhari’s first term. A score of zero is bad, and 10 is great. Do you agree?

Jobs

3.4/10

Join the debate at www.theafricareport.com

In December 2017, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics announced that the economy had shed 7.9 million jobs between 2015 and 2017.

It also reported that the combined unemployment/under-employment rate was about 42% of the population.

Roads/rail

6.8/10

The government has embarked on a flurry of projects, including completing projects initiated and partly executed by the previous government. The AbujaKaduna railway is now operational. A few other projects, including the Lagos-Ibadan railway – which has stagnated for years – are on course to be finalised in the first months of 2019.

Devolution

2/10

The federal and state governments are an unhappy fit. State governors wield great power and budgets, but they want more. Buhari and his deputy, Yemi Osinbajo, seem to have different opinions on this. Buhari favours the status quo while Osinbajo is exploring what greater devolution might look like.

Education

4/10

The number of out-ofschool children is 13.5 million, says UNICEF. The jury is still out on whether the school meals initiative will increase enrolment figures.

both to finance Atiku’s campaign and to back his government should he win power. Among its proposals is a plan to make Nigeria’s corporate taxation the lowest in Africa.

That includes swingeing cuts to state expenditure, especially on recurrent items, and a near abolition of capital controls. Wooing private capital through incentives would be a key economic imperative.

The manifesto talks about ‘orderly privatisation’ – selling off the government’s four refineries and the electric power transmission system, reducing the state’s role to oversight. To that, it adds some hugely ambitious targets, such as lifting at least 50 million people out of extreme poverty by 2025 and creating at least 3m jobs annually.

CULTURAL REVOLUTION

But it stops short of some of the more radical policies that Atiku set out in his recent interview with The Africa Report (TAR105, Nov 2018): selling down the government stake in the country’s oil fields and allowing the states to collect 100% of oil revenue on which they would pay tax to the federal government.

The manifesto lambasts the Buhari government for allowing the naira to lose 120% of its value against the US dollar, with its complex multi-tier exchange rates. But it does not commit Atiku to implementing his preferred policy of allowing the naira to float.

In an extended section on state restructuring, the manifesto talks about a ‘sweeping cultural revolution’. Its political logic is that decision-making would move as close as possible to the point of service delivery. Yet it skirts around any precise commitment on the sharing out of the country’s wealth, mentioning ‘a new revenue allocation formula to be negotiated across the board’. Then it argues: ‘Nigerian states are poor not because they are not receiving a fair share of oil money but because they are not receiving a fair shot at true federalism.’

For activists such as Adeyanju, the constitutional reform plans play well: “[Atiku] is committed to restructuring, and I believe most of the things he is proposing are doable […]. He has shown a commitment to doing things differently.”

Information minister Mohammed is more sceptical about the centrality of

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NIGERIA | COUNTRY FOCUS 59

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Lapses in learning NIGERIA, THE COUNTRY WITH – which funds 90%-95% of their the world’s third-largest population needs – and granted autonomy to run of primary-school aged children as semi-private enterprises: “Until – 29.6 million in 2015 – also holds the universities are repositioned like their unenviable record of having the most counterparts abroad they will continue out-of-school children. According to lean on government and be in this to UNICEF figures, that is 13.5 million crisis.” He continues: “Even if there – more than the entire population is no looting […] they can never live of neighbouring Benin. up to the requirements Good teachers have, for them to rank high meanwhile, become among the universities needles in a haystack. in the world.”

In the 1980s and 1990s, Former World Bank of Nigeria’s 13.5 the repressive stance of vice-president million unschooled military regimes caused Oby Ezekwesili, who children are girls, with a lot of professionals is contesting for the the highest proportion to flee Nigeria. With country’s presidency in the northern states a downturn in economic in the 2019 polls, fortunes and the loss in value of agrees: “Our government will grant the naira, another brain drain episode full autonomy to public universities is presently underway. In 2017, […]. This cowardly control of controversial Kaduna state governor our universities does us no good.

Nasir El-Rufai triggered an uproar We would continue to fund our public by firing 22,000 teachers after 83% universities with grants that will of their cohort scored less than 25% be linked to performance, results in maths and literacy exams. and accountability.”

The higher education sector is also Oladele Akogun, chair of the underserving Nigeria’s future work Education Data, Research and force. Steve Nwokeocha, executive Evaluation in Nigeria initiative, says director of the Africa Federation political will and sustainable solutions of Teaching Regulatory Authorities, are necessary to create a significant sees state control as the problem. shift in the sector. The pessimism The professor of education tells is not unfounded, as Nigeria's history The Africa Report that universities is replete with examples of reforms should be weaned off the “feedingdiscarded after regime change E.E. bottle relationship” with government and cabinet reshuffles.

60%

SOURCE: UNICEF

constitutional reform in the election: “It’s an elite issue in the North West and the North East. There, the econ­ omy is the concern, although talk of restructuring resonates with activists in the south.”

Although Atiku and the PDP have been wooing the business vote in the south, some operators take a more judi­ cious line on the elections. For example, Oluwaseun Smith, chief executive of Enaro Energy, has a mixture of praise, blame and recommendations for the government: “Poor fiscal policies by this administration mean it’s unable to earn enough in taxes to pay for this [electricity] subsidy. As a result, debt continues to accumulate and there’s no incentive for private capital to be invested in the industry.”

At the same time, Smith congrat­ ulates the government on its policies towards companies like his, which is generating electricity off the grid. Yet he calls for more market-driven poli­ cies to raise money for public goods: “The government must change its fiscal policies to invest a lot more in education and health than it is doing now. […] Perhaps the time has come to consider imposing a federal personal income tax to raise government rev­ enues. […] They must also allow the private sector to contribute directly to funding roads through public-private partnerships so that journey times reduce and internal trade flourishes,” he concludes.

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62 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili

Presidential candidate, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria

STEPHEN LOVEKIN/SHUTTER/SIPA

The old order has delivered misery The Nigerian presidential candidate talks to The Africa Report about the education crisis and the need for the politics of ideas rather than personality

B

lunt-speaking and a passionate advocate for women’s rights, Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili has launched a groundbreaking run for the presidency, which looks like a logical step in her professional and political career. Standing for the small Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), she is shaking up the election by running a grassroots campaign with a dedicated band of young volunteer helpers.

Oby, as she is widely known in Nigeria, should not be under­ estimated as a campaigner.

What she lacks in establishment backers and corporate donors, she could make up for in her own enthusiasm and that of her young supporters. She shot to global fame as one of the founders of the #BringBackOurGirls campaign in 2014 demanding

that the government of Goodluck Jonathan find and rescue the more than 270 schoolgirls kidnapped from Chibok in Borno State by the Islamist Boko Haram militia.

Oby and Hadiza Bala Usman, co-founder of the campaign, used social media to get the message around the world, and even US First Lady Michelle Obama was

“I would do a much better job than [Atiku] because government is not monolithic” pictured on social media brandishing a #BringBackOurGirls placard. That campaign was a major reason why Jonathan lost the 2015 election.

An accountant by training, with amaster’sinpublicadministration from Harvard University, Oby has worked on development projects THE AFRICA REPORT

•

for much of her career. She joined then-president Olusegun Obasanjo’s government in 1999 as head of its Budget Monitoring Unit, where she earned the sobriquet ‘Madame Due Process.’ She later served as minister of mines and then of education before leaving government to join the World Bank as vice-president for Africa.

Oby is a fiercely independent campaigner. At the launching of the now governing All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013, she warned its members that they should stand for more than chasing the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) out of power. But she is also critical of Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate, with whom she clashed in government. She tells The Africa Report that Atiku did “everything to undermine due process” when he was in government.

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Regardless of whether Oby and her party can break through in terms of votes in the coming election, her focus on the most pressing social and economic issues could enliven political debate and offer an alternative for the many Nigerians who say they are unimpressed by either of the frontrunning candidates – Atiku or President Muhammadu Buhari.

TAR: Your party lacks the organisation and the resources of the two main parties. How will you be able to compete with them in next year’s elections?

OBIAGELI EZEKWESILI: I have independence of thought and want an association of people who welcome independence of thought too. They [ACPN] have also proven themselves not to be the typical ‘small party’ because they could have melted into the two dominant parties but refused to do that. They came fourth in the 2015 elections and have been around for 11 years. They believe that this is the time for there to be a confrontation with these Siamese twins of failure. We don’t envy the APC and PDP. Who is on your campaign team and how are you funding it?

Any personal resources that I have […] and we are crowdfunding. The average age of people who are members of thecampaign is 27 years. They are committed on the basis of what they believe their candidate stands for. They are committed because they believe that it is time to imagine that we can build a different Nigeria. It is a battle for the soul of Nigeria. There are two sides in this election: the failed old political order and the side of those who dare to believe that we can question and uproot this decadent order that has not delivered anything but misery and poverty.

You were minister of education, serving with Atiku Abubakar when he was vice-president.

What is your view of his record?

I would do a much better job than [Atiku] because government is not monolithic. There

are different parts of every government that you see. It is always great when all sides are working towards a common goal, but sometimes they are not. In the case of the candidate that you referred to, he detested due process. He did everything to undermine it.

There are some 12.5 million to 13.5 million children out of school. What’s your response to this crisis?

Only 10% of young people who have graduated secondary school or university and who enter the labour market find a job. The number in absolute terms who find those decent jobs is anything from 3 million to 4 million. You have to ask yourself about the rest of the teeming millions. Who are they? And where are they?

They live on the edge of society and feel abandoned, disaffected, disenchanted. This destabilising factor – an army of people who feel abandoned – should scare anyone.

OBY'S ORBIT 28 April 1963 Born in Anambra State, Nigeria 1993 Was a co-founder of Transparency International June 2005 – June 2006 Worked as solid minerals minister

You led the Nigeria Extractive IndustryTransparencyInitiative and know about the state oil company’s losses. How can that be fixed?

It is scandalous! Just a few people are getting the opportunity of political power, stifling key sectors that matter to the rest of the country. I am not the kind of leader who wants to control economic levers because I know the limits of what the state can do.

I want a Nigerian economy that is run on the principles of allocative efficiency that does not permit any individual to determine the future of all other individuals.

As minister of solid minerals, I changed that by having a law that threw the gates for mining licences open.

June 2006 – April 2007 Served as education minister May 2007 – 2012 Was vicepresident for Africa at the World Bank

There are security problems in most of the six geopolitical zones. The government insists Boko Haram has been technically defeated. Are things better than they were in 2015?

I think it is marginally better when you think of the spectacle of fleeing soldiers and terrorist occupation that we saw in Borno, when the so-called caliphate

“Teeming millions … they live on the edge of society and feel abandoned, disenchanted” of terrorists put their flags in a number of the local governments.

People who come from that region say that the terrorists don’t control territories in the way that they did before, but they live in their midst. We watched a renegade army in Borno attain the stature of a well-known terrorist group because the nation-state was sleeping at the wheel. The present government repeats the same response to the Fulani herdsmen crisis.

THE AFRICA REPORT

Your manifesto also talks about ending energy poverty. How do you explain Nigeria’s electricity crisis?

First, the structure is centralised and so the federal government has had the almighty power to determine everything about power. As we moved towards deregulation of the sector and shaped a market-based approach, you find that the generating companies lend themselves to market principles.

In 2016, you tweeted that that you opposed subsidy removal.

Today you promise to end subsidies. Why? I have been consistent in my fight against poor governance of resources. There was massive poor governance of resources under the administration which had the proposal to remove subsidies. We couldn’t trust what the removal of subsidies meant under that government. The transfer of more resources into the coffers of that government was evidently going to be troubling because its record did not leave any basis to trust that the people were going to get value for money. There was much more that needed to be tackled before the removal of subsidy would be the kind of policy measure that anyone who is a market enthusiast like myself would support.

Interview by Eromo Egbejule

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PEOPLE TO WATCH

The big 2019 governorship races Here are the men in the spotlight for governorship elections in five crucial geopolitical zones: the North East, South South, North West, South West and Middle Belt

Babagana Umara Zulum

Nyesom Wike

D LR VE IG H T S R ES E R

The governing All Progressives Congress (APC) easily won the presidential vote in Borno State in 2015, so there is not much doubt that APC gubernatorial candidate Babagana Umara Zulum will win control of the state at the forefront of the conflict with the Islamist militants of Boko Haram. Current governor Kashim Shettima, who is stepping down to run for the Senate, picked Zulum as his successor. Shettima praised his management as commissioner for reconstruction, rehabilitation and resettlement and said he never used the position for personal enrichment. With the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) split in the state after a fractious primary and President Buhari popular for a more robust security response, Zulum looks like he will get the chance to have a bigger impact on how the state begins to rebuild.

Umar Ganduje

Bribe claims and ballot boxes

AL

President Buhari is relying on a high turnout in the north and is counting on Kano State to mobilise for the governing APC. Kano State governor Umar Ganduje was the target of an October campaign that promised 15 videos showing him taking bribes from contractors and stuffing the cash in his babanriga. The former deputy governor has threatened to sue the local media that published the videos and denies he took bribes. The APC is not looking to ditch Ganduje because Kano has the highest number of registered voters in Nigeria and is home to the popular former governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who is a member of the opposition PDP.

Samuel Ioraer Ortom Nomads and conflict

Power of the PDP purse The defeat of the PDP in the 2015 elections and the subsequent defection of many of its heavyweights left a gaping hole in the party’s finances and a leadership deficit. Enter Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike, first a friend then a foe of his predecessor, Rotimi Amaechi, who is now director of President Buhari’s campaign. Wike became a kingmaker in the run-up to the PDP primaries unsuccessfully lobbying for his friend and fellow governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto to be its presidential candidate. He is seeking re-election in the face of a divided opposition.

Babajide Sanwo-Olu Lagos upstart

Lagos State, the country’s richest, is a crucial stronghold for the APC. Current governor Akinwunmi Ambode lost the backing of APC grandees including Lagos godfather Bola Tinubu, and after a nasty campaign ceded the 2018 APC primary to Lagos State public servant and former banker Babajide Sanwo-Olu. He is promising to turn a page on the top-down policies of his predecessors, which led to the the eviction of poor communities to make way for new property developments, telling local media in October that he will be “a listening governor”. Announcing his run, Sanwo-Olu said he will “revamp the environment that has become a cause of serious anxiety to Lagosians and relieve Lagos of the persistent gridlocks that have made our lives brutish and nasty”.

He faces Jimi Agbaje, the PDP candidate who lost against Ambode in 2015.

PIUS U

TOMI E

KPEI/A

FP

The Benue State governor is one of the politicians known for going where the opportunities are. After serving as then president Goodluck Jonathan’s industry minister, he abandoned the PDP and won a run for governor on the APC ticket in 2015.

He is now running for re-election as a member of the PDP. He has been one of the most critical voices about the government’s handling of the herder-farmer conflicts in the Middle Belt, which became Nigeria’s most deadly conflict in 2018. He says that senior federal government officials worsened the conflict and that the APC is using government anti-corruption bodies for partisan gains.

Benue is a crucial swing state that backed the PDP in the presidency in 2011 and switched to the APC in 2015.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Ready to rebuild the north

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ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

A significant amount of money has been spent on power sector reforms over the years

SUBSIDIES

The cost of cheaper petrol

The government spends a huge amount of money subsiding the electricity and petrol sectors, but in the end is it worth the cost?

Party presidential candidate Atiku After the government of Muhammadu Buhari stopped a costly and corrupt Abubakar and others have been critisubsidy programme managed by his cising the Buhari team for the rising cost of subsidy spending and the opacity in predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, it their management, which could be used has been keen to suggest that it is out to carry out corruption. of the subsidy game.

What the government calls its spending may have changed, but it still pays CALLS FOR CHANGE the bill to insulate Nigerians from the Subsidies are also a hot topic because it full cost of petrol prices. Instead of payis politically unpopular to reduce them ing subsidies to importers, as was done and force consumers to pay more. When the Jonathan government announced under Jonathan, the Buhari government has made the national oil that it would abolish the company responsible for fuel subsidy in 2012, he fuel imports and swallowfaced massive street protests and relented on how ing the difference between its costs and the price much to cut them.

Nigeria could spend at the pump.

As the price of oil rises, this much in total With global oil prices risthere is more pressure for subsidy payments by ing from $49.49 per barrel the government to cut the end 2018, far beyond since Buhari took office in earlier projections subsidies or raise fuel pric2015 to as much as $70.28 es, either of which would this year, Nigeria’s subsidy costs have be harmful to the government party’s grown sharply. They soared 210% over a chances of re-election. But a growing two-month period, from a daily average number of voices are calling for change.

“If the forecast of FDC proves accost of N774m in March 2018 to N2.4bn per day in May, as the country grapples curate,” says Ekpen Omonbude, chief with fiscal deficits and rising debt levels. executive of UK-based energy and minAhead of elections planned for ing consultancy firm Bargate Advisory February 2019, People’s Democratic Limited, “you would be talking SOURCE: FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES CO.

R

ising oil prices float all boats in Nigeria – or so one might think.

But while government revenue from oil production rises, so too does Nigeria’s subsidies on petrol prices for consumers. The Nigerian government subsidises things like electricity and petrol – paying the difference between the cost to produce and the cost charged to customers – in order to make them more affordable. If the rise in the cost of petrol subsidies was not enough, subsidies to the power sector are rising fast too. Can the national budget take the strain – and how will things play out in upcoming elections?

Africa’s second-biggest economy could spend as much as $5bn in subsidy payments by the end of the year, according to Lagos-based economic research and analysis firm Financial Derivatives Company (FDC). That is far beyond an earlier projection of $3.5bn by the minister of state for petroleum resources, Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu. The cost overrun comes as other spending priorities attract attention on the campaign trail, such as the 11 million Nigerians who are not in the school system.

$5bn

THE AFRICA REPORT

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70 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

SOURCE: NAT. BUREAU OF STATISTICS

SOURCE: IMF

about 70% of government earn­ CRUDE OIL PRICE INDEX AND REAL GDP GROWTH (Index 2005=100, simple average of three spot prices; and percent, annual) ings for 2017.” Total government revenue 350 for 2017 stood at about $7.2bn.

16 Real GDP growth (%) International financial instit­ 300 Crude oil ($/barrels) utions like the World Bank and the 250 11 International Monetary Fund are urging 200 governments to cut costly national 6 150 subsidies and to provide them in a 100 1 targeted fashion to poor communities.

50 The World Bank says that subsidies -4 0 “impose a heavy fiscal burden and are Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec likely not sustainable.” It continues its 91 91 94 95 97 98 2000 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 13 14 16 17 criticism, saying: “Since these subsidies NIGERIA FUEL SUBSIDY(bn naira) disproportionately benefit high-income households, they are a costly way to 633 597 571 557 551 552 protect the poor.”

That is borne out on the ground. “Vast 146 parts of Nigeria actually pay a bit more than the fixed pump price of N145 per 2020 2021 2022 2023 2017 2018 2019 litre. This negates the oft-argued con­ cern that Nigerians would struggle to pay for deregulated fuel”, says Bargate’s because of problems with gas supplies, with the government, but that is not the Omonbude. Using July 2018 data from case here because the government is poor infrastructure and late payments. the National Bureau of Statistics, resi­ The government has spent a significant now setting the price.” The privatisation amount of money on power sector re­ contracts said that the tariff would be dents of 26 states paid, on average, nearly forms over the years – amounts that cost reflective, but in the first quarter N3 per litre more than the national pump of 2015 the government changed tack. price. It was up to N10 more in one state, include an estimated $16bn for the and between N5 and N6 more in at least Power Fund between 1999 and 2007 to another N155 bn on an intervention ‘CENTRALISED MONOPOLY’ three other states. fund for the Multi-Year Tariff Order to “So for instance, if the generating “What is interesting is that the areas subsidise shortfalls in expenditure for companies are selling power at $30 with arguably better living standards, such as Lagos and Abuja, pay the exact the power sector between 2009 and 2013. per kilowatt, the Discos are mandated That spending has not price, while the states with by the government to sell to Nigerians arguably lower standards done much to break the at $15 per kilowatts,” the Disco official of living pay higher. The explains. “The government then bears country’s reliance on the shortfalls of the other half. The costly and polluting diesel subsidy system can be generators. price differential shortfall is what is argued in essence to sub­ Residents in 30 states The government com­ sidise Nigeria’s better off at now known as the Intervention Fund paid on average the expense of the worse because the government is not coming pleted a power sector between N3 and N10 out to say it is subsidising the power off,” Omonbude adds. reform and privatisation more per litre than the national pump price sector. But however you slice it, it is “The petroleum subsidy process in 2013, and due payment is simply unsus­ to continued problems in still a subsidy.” tainable,” argues Victor Eromosele, a The power sector reform and priva­ the sector it paid an estimated N420bn former general manager of finance of tisation was done so private investors in tariff shortfall payments between could deliver sustainable, adequate, Nigeria LNG and now chairman of the February 2015 and December 2016.

These are deficits caused by tariffs lower Centre for Petroleum Information. qualitative, reliable and affordable than cost of service delivery – leading power in a deregulated market, but PRESSING PRIORITIES to a payment from the government to post-reforms, the government still holds “Another way to paint the picture is 40% stakes in Discos. It also owns and private sector operators. that the [initial] N1.4trn estimate for operates the transmission network, By 2017, Abuja released another which remains the weakest link in the N701bn through the Power Intervention subsidy payments is nearly five times Fund. Although the government is not power supply chain. the annual capital budget appropriation for agriculture, education, healthcare classifying these payments as subsidies, The government should move away and trade and investment combined,” government officials as well as distri­ from “centralised monopoly”, argues bution company chiefs see it as such.

Sunday Oduntan, the executive di­ Eromosele says. “I stress these sectors because they are more important to “The government is subsidising rector for research and advocacy at Nigeria’s development than sustaining the Association of Nigerian Electricity the value chain,” says an official from petrol subsidies. There are other more Distributors. Power minister Babatunde an electricity distribution company pressing priorities to worry about.”

Fashola said last year that the govern­ (Disco). “After the privatisation of the sector, electricity prices were supposed ment is considering divesting its shares The Nigerian government also sub­ in the country’s 11 Discos. to be determined by the rules of demand sidises the ailing power sector. The Ruth Olurounbi in Lagos and supply per the agreement we signed country’s electricity supply is erratic

N10

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108

Country profiles

On average, the economies of the continent are set to grow, if assumptions about global markets and domestic political trajectories hold true. Reform and austerity are the buzzwords in resource-dependent countries, as more diversified ones outpace on growth

169 WEST AFRICA

By Marshall Van Valen COUNTRY REPORT EDITOR

194 ALGERIA

121 ESWATINI

184 NIGER

118 ANGOLA

142 ETHIOPIA

185 NIGERIA

Marshall Van Valen

172 BENIN

165 GABON

146 RWANDA

COUNTRY REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

120 BOTSWANA

177 GAMBIA

166 REP. OF CONGO 167 SÃO TOMÉ E PRINCIPÉ

173 BURKINA FASO

178 GHANA

138 BURUNDI

180 GUINEA

158 CAMEROON

181 GUINEABISSAU

187 SENEGAL

144 KENYA

188 SIERRA LEONE

122 LESOTHO

148 SOMALIA

182 LIBERIA

128 SOUTH AFRICA

161 CHAD

197 LIBYA

149 SOUTH SUDAN

139 COMOROS

123 MADAGASCAR

200 SUDAN

175 CÔTE D’IVOIRE

124 MALAWI

150 TANZANIA

140 DJIBOUTI

183 MALI

189 TOGO

162 DRC

198 MAURITANIA

201 TUNISIA

195 EGYPT

125 MAURITIUS

152 UGANDA

164 EQUATORIAL GUINEA

199 MOROCCO

154 WAKANDA

126 MOZAMBIQUE

130 ZAMBIA

141 ERITREA

127 NAMIBIA

132 ZIMBABWE

174 CABO VERDE 160 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

147 SEYCHELLES

Arteh Abdourahim Abdillahi, Nuno Andrade Ferreira, Joseph Burite, Frank Chikowore, Frida Dahmani, Kissima Diagana, Eromo Egbejule, Emilie Filou, Tom Gardner, Nandi Geloo, Ilya Gridneff, Frank Jomo, Reinnier Kazé, Morris Kiruga, Jon Marks, Jeff Mbanga, Billie Adwoa McTernan, Paul Melly, Marafaele Antonia Mohloboli, Olivier Monnier, Roger Murray, Oheneba Ama Nti Osei, Francis Okech, Crystal Orderson, Bram Posthumus, Louise Redvers, Gerhard Seibert, Patrick Kwabena Stephenson, Kervin Victor, Omar Wally

DATA SOURCES

Population (2018), population growth (2015-2020) – United Nations Population Division. Life expectancy at birth (2017), position on the Human Development Index (2016), adult literacy (2006-2016) – United Nations Development Programme.

GDP per capita (2018 estimate), inflation (2018 estimate), current account as % of GDP (2018 estimate), GDP (2016-2019), GDP growth (2016-2019) – IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Foreign direct investment (2017, inflows) – United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Mobile phone penetration (2017, mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants) – International Telecommunications Union. Key export (2016) – UN Comtrade. Last change of leader – The Africa Report research.

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M

191 NORTH AFRICA

135 EAST AFRICA

155 CENTRAL AFRICA

any of the continent’s biggest economies will face stark political and economic choices in the year ahead, as fast-ggrowing economies like Ethiopia, Rwan nda and Senegal go from strength to strrength; continental giants Nigeria and S South Africa muddle through; and the economies e of Equatorial Guinea and S South Sudan shrink due to war and mism management of natural resources.

On n the economic front, the Internatio onal Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimisstic on the whole about the continent’s post-commodity-crash rebound.

It preedicted in October that sub-Saharan Africca’s gross domestic product growth woulld rise to 3.1% in 2018, and acceleratee to 4% over the medium term on curreent policies. But it warns that those grow wth levels are not high enough to creatte jobs for the generations now in scho ool and to fight poverty effectively.

And, like all economic predictions, these num mbers are based on assumptions.

On ne of the IMF’s assumptions that migh ht prove problematic is that things will stay s on their current course. More and more voices in the West and Asia are pointing p to the potential for gloom and d doom. Another crisis, be it in African debtt or commodity prices, will test to theirr limits government reforms and decisions about which projects are econ nomically viable because the tools availlable to respond – in the West, Asia and A Africa – are less expansive now than in th he 2008 financial crash.

NEW W TAXES

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With hout a very conducive international backkdrop – see page 78 for a look at the th hreats on the horizon – the policy choicces are stark for a number of African goverrnments.Manyresource-dependent econ nomies are now getting used to austeerity and working with the IMF on strucctural reforms, but others will just be gettin ng the ball rolling in 2019. Zambia’s goveernment is promising higher taxes and royalties on miners rather than tighttening its belt and passing the pain of paast spending binges on to the population. And in Kenya, despite years of the K Kenyatta administration saying that it cou uld continue to spend and spend, the Nairobi government is rolling out new taxes to make ends meet.

LAST WORD

A STRANGER’S POSE A BOOK BY EMMANUEL IDUMA Emmanuel Iduma was born and raised in Nigeria.

He is the author of The Sound of Things to Come, a novel, and the blog A Sum of Encounters, for which he won a 2017 Creative Capital/Warhol Foundation Arts Writers Grant. A Stranger’s Pose (Cassava Press), his latest work, is a travel memoir of poetry and prose with a curated selection of photographs.

Reorientation, Mauritania, 2014,

by Dawit L. Petros, who travelled with the author

© DAWIT L. PETROS

202

From A Stranger’s Pose

O

n my second evening in Khartoum, we were served a welcome dinner of falafel, a tray full of bean stew, and a pile of pita bread.

I observed the woman who spoke the most.

Her eagerness seemed like a sprint ahead of the moment. Each person’s response to a question was one-fifth of hers. And when, in an unforeseen twist of the conversation, she was asked which of the men she thought was the best-looking, she pointed at me. She was gorgeous. I noticed, despite her spiritedness, that at the moments she fell silent, the corner of her mouth would twitch, as if she pondered what to leave unsaid.

I gathered hearsay tales about her from her friends. The daughter of rich parents, she had returned from studying in Malaysia a few months before. She was betrothed, they

said, but hesitant about marriage. Although curious about how far I could take my interest in her, I felt damned by time. There weren’t more than two days left.

They said she was high on hashish the first night I met her. This seemed plausible. Her carriage the next time I saw her, in contrast with her outrageous chattiness, seemed forlorn.

A day to my departure, she bought a new camera, a Nikon for entry-level photographers.

She brought this when, in a rare moment when we were unaccompanied by my travel companions, we walked in the Omdurman market. She began to take photographs of me framed by wares and stalls and faces in mid-chatter. These are portraits, she joked, of the moments I imagine you’re Sudanese.

If you write me, I will send them to you.

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