TAR117 – Q4 2021 - NIGERIA by The Africa Report

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Belgium €7.90 • Canada CA$12 • Denmark DK80 • D.R.C. US$10 • France €7.90 • Germany €7.90 • Ghana GH¢35 • Kenya KES1000 • Morocco DH45 Netherlands €7.90 • Nigeria NGN2000 • Rwanda RWF7,500 • South Africa R75 (tax incl.) • Switzerland FS10.90 • Tanzania TZS20,000 • Tunisia DT15 Uganda UGX40,000 • UK £7.20 • United States US$15.99 • Zambia ZMW80 • CFA Countries F.CFA3,900 • Euro Zone €7.90

TOP 200 AFRICAN BANKS Rebuild, recapitalise, refocus

N° 117 • OCTOBER - NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2021

SOUTH AFRICA Ramaphosa’s race to fix the ANC TITANS OF TECH The big beasts of Africa’s Silicon Savanna

www.theafricareport.com

BIG IDEA

DANGOTE’S

It’s probably because we started in the mobile sector that we’re moving up fast in financial services. More than 60 million people worldwide trust in Orange Money. Since its launch in Côte d’Ivoire 13 years ago, Orange Money has secured itself a place as a world leader in the financial services sector and aims to pave the way for financial inclusion in Africa and the Middle East. #OrangeMoney

Orange, limited company (“Société Anonyme”) with a share capital of €10,640,226,396 – Registered office: 111, quai du Président-Roosevelt 92130 – Issy-les-Moulineaux, France. Trade Register No. 380 .129 .866 Nanterre. Exclusive agent in banking and payment services for Orange Bank – Orias n° 13 001 387 (www.orias.fr).

EDITORIAL

CARBON MUST FALL!

Like calls to topple statues and governments, the war on carbon has the attributes of a resounding battle cry. More so, when almost everyone can agree. It’s not easy being green, but we must all try harder. The simplicity is deceptive. Beneath it lurks depths of hypocrisy and doubledealing. Ranged against that are the righteous campaigners to save the planet from carbon dioxide poisoning. Mostly young, they are angered by the obfuscation and lies of corporations and governments. Yet, this is another world – literally another century – from the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992. Uniting activists across the globe, Rio produced UN treaties on carbon levels, forests and water, triggering annual climate summits. At its core was the link between protecting the environment and accelerating sustainable development in Africa, Asia and South America. That has eroded. Governments are making climate less political and more about technical fixes and market solutions. It is leading to a deadly complacency. Red lights should be flashing when world leaders descend on Glasgow in November for the UN’s COP26 climate summit. In September, UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa reported that greenhouse gases are set to rise by 16%

in 2030 compared with levels in 2010. On these trends, she forecasts catastrophic global warming of 2.7°C by the end of the century. Africa has contributed less than 1% to cumulative global carbon emissions, yet it has been hit harder than any continent by climate change. If much of the bargaining at Glasgow is around carbon levels, developing economies risk being sidelined. The lion’s share of the global carbon budget, set at the summit, should go to low-emitting, energy-poor countries. That’sespeciallyrelevant for Africa’s hydrocarbon producers, as Nigeria’s vice-president Yemi Osinbajo argues. Bans or restrictions on public investment in Africa’s fossil fuels, especially natural gas, will stymie the region’s efforts to fix its energy crisis. Finance for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change will be another dividing line at the conference. In 2016, the G20 club of countries agreed to contribute $100bn a year in climate finance to developing economies. Only Germany and the Nordic countries have met their quotas. So far, the US has paid less than a fifth of its promise, although Biden has committed to boosting payments this year. African states will have to negotiate harder. Until now, they have secured less than 5% of the available funding. They should also get backing from the international financial institutions for more innovative funding. South Africa’s deputy finance minister, David Masondo, for example, has proposed a debt-for-climate swap that would allow the Eskom energy utility to raise $10bn to move from coal to renewable energy. Africa’s pioneering mobile-money systems are inspiring new ideas about off-grid and sustainable energy. Speeding up that work will need far greater investment in universities and technical colleges, as well as money from the markets. All of that will count next year when the UN Climate summit is held in Africa.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2021

#117 / October-November-December 2021 THE AFRICA REPORT 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED

PUBLISHER DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com

AFRICAN

EDITOR IN CHIEF PATRICK SMITH MANAGING EDITOR NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com

BANKS A

To find the full editorial team, all our correspondents and much more on our new digital platform, please visit: www.theafricareport.com

SALES A JUSTE TITRE Tel: +33 (0)9 70 75 81 77 contact-ajt-sifija@ajustetitres.fr

8O 62 NIGERIA FOCUS The Buhari government has not delivered on major reforms for the business sector. And while many mega-projects are going ahead nonetheless, business leaders will have to adjust to the policies of a new resident at Aso Rock come 2023.

FEATURES 26 WIDE ANGLE / Dangote’s big idea We talk to Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote and make an exclusive visit to his $19bn fertiliser and oil refinery plants in Lekki, just outside of Lagos.

36 PROFILE / Ramaphosa’s land of the rising sun South Africa’s president has strengthened his hand in the governing ANC but faces a tough test in 1 November’s local elections due to Covid-19, poor service delivery and the slow pace ofhis reforms.

50 PROFILE / Team Biden A look at the US President’s hand-picked list of diplomats, envoys, spies and soldiers representing Washington in Africa and competing with the likes of China and Russia.

TOP 200 BANKS AND TOP 100 INSURERS Our exclusive ranking of the largest companies in the African financial services sector. They were hit by Covid-19 but are making plans for the days of more growth.

112 CONSTRUCTION DOSSIER Egypt’s new cities, Chinese troubles in DRC and Egyptian cement.

120 TOP 40 DIGITAL LEADERS Our exclusive ranking of digital innovators and power players.

130 MAURITIUS FOCUS Port Louis is looking for a new economic miracle.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

Tel: + 44 (0)1 442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0)1 442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk ExpressMag 8275 Avenue Marco Polo Montréal, QC H1E 7K1, Canada T : +1 514 355 3333

MONTAGE JA : STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN/AFP ; OLUWAMUYIWA ADEYEMI FOR TAR ; DANGOTE

03 EDITORIAL 06 MAILBAG 08 COFFEE WITH THE AFRICA REPORT / Frannie Léautier 12 OPINION 16 Q4 / October 20 Q4 / November 22 Q4 / December

CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 4 College Road Business Park College Road North Aston Clinton HP22 5EZ United Kingdom

1 year subscription (4 issues): All destinations: €27 - $32 - £24 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com

ADVERTISING DIFCOM INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS - FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19-60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com

PRINTER: SIEP 77 - FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950-4810

THE AFRICA REPORT is published by JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

MAILBAG

For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis rue d’Auteuil Paris 75016 - France or editorial@theafricareport.com

THE TRUTH ABOUT ECONOMIC LIFE IN NORTHERN NIGERIA The death of economic growth in northern Nigeria is not for the lack of rich economic factors – minerals, materials and men – but of trained minds! [‘Why is President Buhari looking north to Niger?’, TAR online edition, 22 June.] The early 1950s saw the southern Nigerian authorities embark on free education for their children. It was the foundation of knowledge acquisition and development. The development gap between the north and the south was so pronounced that in the 1978 Convocation Chancellor’s address, chief Ọbafemi Awolọwọ, the sage, said: “Stop the south for 50 years, no new schools built, no new admissions into existing schools, the north cannot catch up.” The oil boom of the General Yakubu Gowon era brought false wealth to the nation. Government contracts drove many out of their erstwhile legitimate

RAMAPHOSA WILL NOT CREATE A DECADE OF GROWTH Goolam Ballim is talking nonsense [TAR online edition, 24 June]. All the policy initiatives by Cyril Ramaphosa are directed at benefiting the old establishments that are still in control of the economy. The majority of South Africans are still poor, inequality is huge and unemployment among the majority blacks is over 64%. Cronyism is rifer than before. The reforms in [power] generation are to benefit foreign companies with local political connections. The 51% stake in South African Airways sold to Harith Group was not transparent and was parcelled out to individuals associated with the faction in the ANC that supports Ramaphosa. The new port regulatory authority is set up to weaken Transnet so that it can be primed for privatisation. Kwame Amuah

income sources and made them “emergency contractors”. A host of northerners fell for this. Nothing now originates from the north except if it is fully funded by the south. The burden of northern leadership today is how will they manage their untrained population without the funds from the south, now that the south has realised that the north has dragged them too

far below the height they should have attained? The north can definitely survive without the south, but will the feudal lords allow it? David Adebayọ Alabi

FIGHTING TERRITORIAL INEQUALITIES The painful thing is that whatever he does, President Muhammadu Buhari is wrong: if he does not develop

the north, he’s wrong, and if he develops it in this manner, he is also wrong. Why can’t Nigerian governments deliver a comprehensive approach to territorial inequalities and make a serious long-term plan to get it right? Short-term political mandates are clearly making rulers blind when it comes to the bigger picture and general interest. Sabine

HOW TO GET YOUR COPY OF THE AFRICA REPORT On sale at your usual outlet. If you experience problems obtaining your copy, please contact your local distributor, as shown below. ETHIOPIA: SHAMA PLC, Aisha Mohammed, +251 11 554 5290, aisham@shamaethiopia.com – GHANA: TM HUDU ENTERPRISE, T. M. Hudu, +233 (0)209 007 620, +233 (0)247 584 290, tmhuduenterprise@gmail.com – KENYA, UGANDA, TANZANIA: THE NEWZ POINT, Dennis Lukhoola, +256 701 793092, +254 724 825186, denluk07@yahoo.com – NIGERIA: NEWSSTAND AGENCIES LTD, Marketing manager, +234 (0) 909 6461 000, newsstand2008@gmail. com; STRIKA ENTERTAINMENT NIGERIA LIMITED, Mrs Joyce Olagesin, info.nig@strika.com – SOUTHERN AFRICA: SALES AND SUBSCRIPTIONS: ALLIED PUBLISHING, Butch Courtney; +27 083 27 23 441, berncourtney@gmail.com – UNITED KINGDOM: QUICKMARSH LTD, Pascale Shale, +44 (0) 2079285443, pascale.shale@quickmarsh.com – UNITED STATES & CANADA: Disticor, Karine Halle, 514-434-4831, karineh@disticor.com – ZAMBIA: BOOKWORLD LTD, Shivani Patel, +260 (0)211 230 606, bookworld@realtime.zm For other regions go to www.theafricareport.com

ADVERTISERS’ INDEX AFREXIMBANK P 19; ARDOVA PLC P 77; BPC P 91; BUA GROUP P 66-67; CFAO P 119; CIB P 89; CLARITY GLOBAL P 60; DANGOTE GROUP P 7; DASSAULT AVIATION P 140; DUBAI CCI P 99; EASY STEELSHEDS P 35; EURONEWS P 61; EXPO 2020 P 15; GENSER ENERGY P 54-55; KONNECT EUTELSAT P 73; LIEBHERR P 117; MCB GROUP P 25; MSC P 5; NIGERITE ETEX NIGERIA P 75; OCP GROUP P 71; ORANGE P 2, 85; PRUDENTIAL PLC P 93; REP. OF CHAD P 10-11; REP. OF COTE D’IVOIRE P 101-106; REP. OF TOGO P 44-49; SUBSCRIPTION TAR P 109, 137; TAGPAY P 99; TECNIMONT NIGERIA P 69; THE WHITAKER GROUP P 59; TOSHIBA P 139; UBA GROUP P 17; USAID P 57

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

GALERIE DOMINIQUE FIAT

The Africa Report’s exclusive guide to the quarter ahead features key events from the worlds of politics, business and culture. Find out more about how to plan your October, November & December. Making bets on whether elections will take place as planned in Libya and Somalia? Looking to hit the highlights of the continental cultural calendar in October? Watching in worry as the world negotiates another climate-change deal at COP26? 14

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

Luanda Biennale: culture for peace

/ OCTOBER

GALERIE DOMINIQUE FIAT

Prince Gyasi, The 12 Powers, 2020: 1-54 Contemporary Art Fair

UNESCO

FESPACO returns to Ouagadougou

CULTURE NIC BOTHMA/EPA/MAXPPP

Arts on the agenda On 4-8 October the Biennale of Luanda highlights arts, culture and heritage as ‘Levers for Building the Africa We Want’. The 1-54 Contemporary Art Fair in London celebrates the continent’s contemporary artists on 14-17 October, and from 16-23 October Ouagadougou welcomes back the pan-African film and TV festival FESPACO.

GOVERNMENTS OF SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN A businesslike joint press release announced that on 1 October four border posts would be opened for the first time since South Sudan’s independence in 2010.

‘The two parties engaged in extensive talks and candid discussion on all aspects and fields of cooperation’

SEGUN OGUNSANYA On 1 October Ogunsanya takes over as CEO of Indian telco Airtel Africa on the retirement of Raghunath Mandava. 7-9 October The Africa-France summit postponed in 2020 will be held in Montpellier, France. sommetafriquefrance.org 13-14 October The 6th Global Business Forum Africa in Dubai discusses ‘Transformation Through Trade’. globalbusinessforum.com 21-22 October Istanbul hosts the 3rd Turkey-Africa Economic & Business Forum. turkeyafricaforum.org

COVID-19 From October, Durban-based Aspen Pharmacare, a manufacturer for Johnson & Johnson, will make Covid-19 vaccines solely for Africa, following an outcry that Africa-made vaccines were being sent to Europe.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

TAKELOT

EVENTS

MAMONGAE MAHLARE South African e-commerce outfit Takealot has appointed Mahlare as new CEO, and founder and CEO Kim Reid will become chairman (see page 123).

/ OCTOBER MOZAMBIQUE SADC

President Farmaajo celebrates Independence Day

salve

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda are sending troops to Mozambique to help quell the Islamist rebellion in Cabo Delgado Province. South Africa’s contingent of 1,495 troops are due to stay in the country from 15 July to 15 October.

TANZANIA a vum Ro

Nanngade Mocímboa da Praia

NANGADE Maputo Diiaca

Muedda

TWITTER/M_FARMAAJO

GAS FIELDS

PALMA

MOCIMBOA DA PRAIA

MUEDA MOZAMBIQUE

INDIAN OCEAN

MUIDUMBE

Somalia has settled for October and November 2021 presidential elections after President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’, tried to extend his rule beyond February without holding a vote. The organising of the delayed national elections has laid bare many tensions. The country’s institutions are weak, insecurity is rife and political trust is low. Abdullahi has been in conflict with Somalia’s federal member states and in September his relationship broke down with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, who is in charge of organising the elections. The conflict could again spill over into the security forces, warns the think tank International Crisis Group. Opposition presidential candidates also criticised the government’s road map for elections in late August, providing yet another avenue that could lead to more election delays. Abdullahi had promised to hold a “one man, one vote” election, but insecurity, a lack of resources and a lack of political consensus made that impossible. So, now, elders from clans will pick the delegates responsible for choosing members of parliament (MPs). The MPs and senators then elect a president, in a race that will include three former presidents and Abdullahi.

QUISSANGA 50 km

ANCUABE

CABO DELGADO SITUATION

Metuge

Pemba

Major violent incidents Apr.-Sept. 2021

FRANCOIS MORI/AP/SIPA

The cheese stands alone

Macomia MELUCO

STEFAN HEUNIS/AFP

SOMALIA

SOURCE: CABO LIGADO OBSERVATORY

MACOMIA MONTEPUEZ

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

JUSTICE

High-profile trials Courts are in the spotlight in October. Former president of Burkina Faso Blaise Compaoré will be tried for the assassination of former president Thomas Sankara in 1987, when he led a coup d’état against his former associate that resulted in 12 deaths. In Nigeria, the trial for treason of Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) separist group, was adjourned to 21 October after he failed to appear before the Federal High Court of Nigeria in July.

AFREXIMBANK

CENTRAL AFRICA REGIONAL OFFICE

24 September 2021

Uniting the Continent Announcing the opening of our Central Africa Regional Office in Yaoundé, Cameroon Friday 24 September 2021, Afreximbank proudly takes up residence in Yaoundé.

Republic of Congo, Chad and Gabon, reflects the expansion of the Bank’s Member States from 37 to 51 since 2015.

By extending further across the continent, the Bank continues to deliver on its pan-African mandate, adding to its presence in Cairo, Kampala, Abuja, Abidjan and Harare.

Our geographical growth reinforces our commitment to financing and promoting intra-extra African trade.

The Central Africa Regional Office, which covers Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Democratic

Welcome to our office at the Headquarters Building of the National Social Insurance Fund (NSIF), Independence Square!

afreximbank.com

FEATURES /

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

Aliko of Africa’s WIDE ANGLE

$19bn bet

With an exclusive visit to his industrial hub and an interview with Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, The Africa Report looks at the continent’s most colossal industrial project and its chances for success

by NICHOLAS NORBROOK in Lekki and Lagos

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

NIGERIA FOCUS /

NIGERIA FOCUS Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari swept to victory in 2015 with the promise of turning the country around. With less than two years until he steps down, many in business say his interventionist policies have failed to deliver prosperity

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

Breaking new ground at BUA Group’s LASUCO sugar project in Lafiagi

BUA

Business dreams of the post-Buhari era By NICHOLAS NORBROOK Bright white sheets of A4 paper flutter on shopfronts as the traffic slowly accelerates out of Lagos. ‘Car wash person urgently required.’ ‘Nanny wanted, room and meals included.’ Requests for

security guards and domestic help are easy to spot across the Lekki Peninsula, to the east of Nigeria’s commercial capital, where new condominiums are springing up. Boosters say the Lekki Peninsula is the future of Nigeria. “I have

bought land out there,” says Patrick Koshoni, founder of the exclusive private members’ club Miliki, who is looking to build a boutique hotel for workers in Lekki. The site of the new Dangote refinery (see page 26), Lekki is also home to a

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

Economic nationalism Security is a key concern. Trucking goods is highly risky in much of the north. “I have a farm in Katsina State that I have not been to for the past two years,” says Kabir Ibrahim, president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria. “People do not go to the farms any more because, when they go, they don’t come back.” Abuja’s business champions are not feting the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari either. “Things have not got better,” says one construction-sector CEO who asked not to be named. “We have not got our equipment imported, the ports have been terrible, and the foreign exchange situation is killing us.” Buhari’s administration arrived in 2015 with designs that were more interventionist than his predecessor’s. While Buhari may have celebrated the election of fellow Nigerian Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as director of the World Trade Organisation and her “passion for

development”, his own instincts are more economic nationalism than free trade. Six years on, analyst Abdulrauf Aliyu writes in The Alvin Report, ‘one won’t be wrong to say that the Nigerian economy remains tied to the life-support of oil, peasant agriculture and largely informal services sector, while income inequality, poverty and unemployment remain major defining features of the economy’. Buhari’s ideas centred around the structural transformation that was needed to change that. Or such were the early noises made by his now deceased chief of staff Abba Kyari. While a business council chaired by vice-president Yemi Osinbajo did some initial good work, it has since lost its bite. The border closure with Benin, for example, was a move more characteristic of an activist government that hoped to impose itself on regional smuggling markets – and while Benin’s food smugglers may be hurting, Nigeria’s consumers are hurting more. Nigeria’s interventions to support the currency have also injured the business climate, argue many. Defending the naira puts pressure on Nigeria’s reserve of US dollars,

Benin’s smugglers may be hurting, but Nigeria’s consumers are hurting more

which was already struggling due to lower oil prices. Nigerian development economist Tobi Lawson says: “Excessive control has put a big ‘SELL’ on Nigeria’s economy and its currency. Foreign direct investment has collapsed, remittances are also plummeting. Imports have not reduced and dollar scarcity means importers pay higher rates and charge consumers accordingly – which [accounts for] the inflation we are seeing.” South African retailer Shoprite has left Nigeria, selling off its 25-store chain to a local investor with experts citing problems with ports, a fluctuating currency and difficulties repatriating profits as the reasons. Big telecoms companies like MTN and Etisalat are lobbying furiously to be allowed to have a mobile-money

NIGERIA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (million US$) 50 000

40 000 30 000

20 000

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

2018

2020

SOURCES: TRADINGECONOMICS.COM, CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA

Singapore-powered new industrial zone with ambitions to catapult Lagos State into the latest iteration of East Asia’s export-driven development miracle. An integrated new port project with Chinese backers should help ease the burden on the clogged Lagos ports. But Lekki may only be the future of Lagos. As fond as people are of pointing out that Africa is 54 countries, they might do the same for the 36 states in the fraught union known as Nigeria. Some of these states have the GDP of an ‘average’ African country – Lagos State’s economy is the size of Sudan’s, at $33bn. But because these states differ wildly one from the other in terms of wealth and political heft, any attempt to talk about the health of Nigerian business must also look to places that are less like Lekki and far more complicated.

SOM

NIGERIA FOCUS / Business dreams of the post-Buhari era

The pipeline of post-Buhari projects is indeed packed. Dangote’s refinery will only just be getting up to speed by 2023, while BUA Group’s refinery is set to arrive a few years later. Both will save the country the vast foreignexchange outlays it currently spends on importing fuel.

Planners’ vision for Alárò City, a mixed-use model community in the Lekki Free Trade Zone

Oil and gas to flow

licence, while domestic players like Glo are already “printing money”, according to one industry insider. But domestic companies struggle to emerge, too. While national champions are feted at the top of the tree, they are casting too much shade on more junior competitors – with some critics arguing large companies overly benefit from state support at the expense of a thriving corporate ecosystem.

Protection, what protection? The problem of a lack of internal competitiveness and big players capturing regulators predates Buhari, but it has undoubtedly worsened now, says accountant and commentator Feyi Fawehinmi. “By itself, protecting local players is not the worst thing in the world, and many countries have done it at various stages of

their development,” he says. “The problem is that the same government that protects local players from external competition in the name of nurturing them is soon quickly pulled into protecting those same local players from internal competition.” For Olumide Adeosun, the CEO of domestic energy player Ardova, corporate Nigeria needs to evolve. “There is still a lot of the dominantshareholder culture,” he says. When that changes – and he does spy green shoots – there will be far greater interest from global capital in seizing the opportunities present in this country of more than 200 million people. There is as much resignation as resilience in the stance of business. A Lebanese property developer in Lagos says: “We are just waiting him [Buhari] out.”

BLACK-MARKET RATES SOAR (Naira/$) 550

Naira spot rate Naira black-market rate

500 450 400 350

2019

2020

2021

SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, ABOKIFX.COM

Naira spot and black-market rates have widened since devaluation in 2021

Two other big energy projects – Nigeria LNG’s Train 7 and Shell’s Bonga North and eventually Southwest – are set to come onstream, while large domestic players like Seplat are likely to consolidate and grow by purchasing Shell’s onshore and shallow-water assets. ‘Nigeria is expected to have 100 oil and gas projects commencing operations across the value chain between 2021 and 2025, accounting for 23% of the total project starts in Africa,’ reports GlobalData. Large infrastructure projects will be completed, too, many of which Buhari pushed forwards, but for whom the benefits will accrue to his successor. A coastal train line is due to connect Lagos to Calabar in the south-east. And the upgraded and extended Lagos-Epe Expressway will provide importers and exporters with an additional route into the hinterland and connect the new Lekki deepwater port, which is integrated into Nigeria’s first privately owned free zone. Some are not waiting out Buhari, but have seized the Nigerian nettle. Tolaram, the Singaporean developer of the Lagos Free Trade Zone, knows better than most about the ‘fortune at the bottom of the pyramid’ – shorthand for the oftignored aggregate spending of large swaths of emerging economies. “A lot of work goes into getting costs down to help companies be affordable,” says Lagos Free Trade Zone CEO Dinesh Rathi. “That’s allowed us to build long-term relationships with global brands.”

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

Flour & Pasta

Mining & Construction

NIGERIA FOCUS /

Nordea voted for a motion that sought to push the company to prepare itself to respect the climate commitments in the Paris accords. The resolution was not adopted, but the fact that it was supported by more than 30% of Shell’s voting rights sent a “clear signal” to the company, Granqvist says. Gail Anderson, research director at Wood Mackenzie and a specialist in Nigerian oil and gas, questions who will want to buy high-cost, emissions-intensive assets in the Niger Delta. It will be “extremely hard” for Shell to shift all the licences in the current environment, she says.

OIL AND GAS

Nigeria’s PIB may to be too late to help Shell The supermajors are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, so Shell may have a hard time finding buyers for its stakes in Niger Delta fields

The signature of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) may be too little, too late to help Royal Dutch Shell achieve best prices for its assets, analysts say. President Muhammadu Buhari finally signed the bill – first introduced in 2008 – into law on 16 August. The bill reduces taxes and royalty payments and exempts deep offshore oil and gas production from some taxes. Shell is selling the joint-venture licences held by the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC), which comprise a 30% stake in 19 oil-mining leases. The company called for expressions of interest by 10 September. The oil major is under legal and investor pressure to align its strategy with the Paris climate accords.

In May, a court in The Hague ordered Shell to reduce its 2019 worldwide CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030, a ruling that the company is appealing. Shell’s current aim of reducing emissions by 20% by 2030 is “clearly insufficient,” says Harry Granqvist, a senior environmental, social and governance analyst at Nordea Asset Management. Shell says that its oil production peaked in 2019 and its output will decline by 1%-2% a year, including divestments, until 2030. At Shell’s latest shareholders’ meeting,

$2.3bn

Value of the 30% stake Nigerian assets that Shell wishes to sell, according to Gail Anderson of Wood Mackenzie

Shell’s Bonny Island LNG plant is not for sale

Financing a challenge

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

AKINTUNDE AKINLEYE/REUTERS

By DAVID WHITEHOUSE

Wood Mackenzie says that only 20% of the joint-venture resources are currently commercial due to a lack of investment, crude theft and insecurity. A competent buyer giving priority to the assets could commercialise much more than that, a note from Anderson says. Research from Janet Ogunkoya, a senior oil and gas analyst at Tellimer in Lagos, shows that daily oil production in Nigeria has dropped below the levels of 2020, and even below the rate during the 2016-2017 militant attacks. Local independent oil producers are the most likely bidders for Shell’s assets, and the improved fiscal terms in the PIB strengthen the case for investing in the assets, she says. But local producers “do not have very robust balance sheets,” so “there might be some discounting, to take into account the relatively weak buying power”. “For the local producers, getting financing to secure these assets would be a huge challenge,” Ogunkoya says, and some of the Nigerian leases have upcoming development costs. Ogunkoya points to local oil producer Seplat as a possible beneficiary of the pressures facing Shell.

Think about thousands of highly skilled professionals with distinctive competences and technological know-how in the natural resources transformation sector. Petrochemicals, oil&gas refining and fertilizers are our core industries, while we aim at accelerating the world energy transition through low carbon technologies and green chemistry. This is Maire Tecnimont Group: a plant engineering leader focused on the chemical processing of conventional and renewable energy resources into advanced products embedded in everyday life. Our business strategy on geography diversification is a key element to grow and assist our clients in their revamping initiatives, leveraging on our technological know-how to ensure more efficient and environmentally better performing processes and products.

We are strongly increasing our focus on initiatives for the modernization of the refining sector: we are enhancing our footprint in Nigeria and in Sub-Saharan Africa, a market with excellent downstream prospects given its demographics and the necessity to unlock greater added value from the transformation of natural resources.

COUNTRIES

COMPANIES

~1500

TOTAL DELIVERED PROJECTS

mairetecnimont.com

A Lagos market trader catches up on the latest drama

MEDIA

Creative and cash-rich Boosted by lockdown activity, Nigeria’s entertainment and media sector is set to grow and grow By TEMI’ LAWAL in Lagos Irokotv founder Jason Njoku and media mogul Mo Abudu, are you listening? If Nigeria’s entertainment and media (E&M) industry continues on its growth path, its revenue could nearly double between now and 2025, making the country the fastest-growing E&M market in the world. A report from the consultants at PwC forecasts that the industry will earn $14.8bn in 2025, up from its current revenue of $7.7bn, riding on the growth of its internet-access segment. As Nigeria’s government enforced a nationwide lockdown to slow the spread of Covid-19, the music industry was not spared. The internet came to the rescue. For example, the Nigerian musical superstar Wizkid banked on internet firepower to release his much-anticipated Made in Lagos album. The album has spent over 40 weeks on the Billboard World Albums Chart, peaking at number one album in the world.

The PwC report examines how changes in consumer behaviour have driven powerful shifts in entertainment and media business models. ‘Foremost among these shifts is the way the streaming boom of 2020 has set the industry on a new growth trajectory,’ it says.

Streaming ahead As a testament to this, the global music-streaming giant Spotify this year rolled out its services to Nigerians. Internet-enabled platforms such as Netflix are making it possible to reach millions more with film and video. Internet access already accounts for 78% of the industry’s revenue in Nigeria and is projected to steadily grow to 85% in 2025. ‘In fact, we may be moving into a new phase of streaming growth – one that is more measured, more focused on improving the experience of customers, and more intent on retaining and creating value from immense subscriber bases that have materialised,’ the

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

PwC authors say. The traditional TV and home video subsector holds the industry’s second-largest market share, which is projected to fall from 9% to 6% by 2025. Little wonder players in this space are also leveraging the internet wave. Channels TV, for instance, has looked to the internet to retain its leading status. It has a combined viewership of almost 10 million on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, with well-structured multi-platform streaming services. Steady growth from internet access, of course, depends on the country’s broadband infrastructure and mobile connectivity. Agbaje Kehinde, a Lagos-based technology expert, tells The Africa Report: “A lot of work needs to be done on internet penetration, quality and affordability if we truly want to optimise the growth and compete with the global market.” A recent report by Jobberman, one of Nigeria’s most prominent career platforms, projects that the country’s creative industries, which currently employ 4.2 million people, will generate another 2.7 million jobs by 2025. Within this, the E&M sector currently employs 1.5 million Nigerians and will create jobs for almost one million more. Watch this space and an internetconnected device near you.

CRISTINA ALDEHUELA/AFP

NIGERIA FOCUS /

FINANCE

Crypto clue to drop in remittances A little sleuthing reveals why Nigeria’s remittances have dropped while cryptocurrency trading has boomed, despite government efforts to replace Bitcoin with the e-naira

Is Nigeria’s rich and tech-savvy diaspora using cryptocurrencies to circumvent a struggling naira when they send money home to support family or invest? The Nigerian Central Bank seems to think so – it is launching an e-naira to compete with Bitcoin and its rivals from October of this year. Remittances are a big deal in Nigeria. In 2015, the country received more in remittance inflows than it earned from oil, the mainstay of the economy. Amidst the coronavirus pandemic, remittances have been dropping. Diaspora remittances sent to Nigeria declined by 27% to $17.2bn in 2020, down from $23.5bn in 2019. This steep decline was $4bn more than the World Bank had projected.

Do the numbers add up? Meanwhile, cryptocurrency use – be it Bitcoin, Ethereum or dozens of others – has continued to surge, despite the central government’s ban on financial institutions facilitating payments in crypto. The Africa Report asks if remittances have declined that much, or if many of the transactions have evaded official records, having been rerouted through cryptocurrency trades. Peter Moses, a UK-based Nigerian finance and investment expert, argues that the shift to cryptocurrency may be responsible for part of the reported decline in remittances for 2020. “As at last

is increasingly making that option unattractive and unsustainable. Many diaspora Nigerians have tended to buy assets in Nigeria such as government treasury bills, bonds and equities, but the yields on these assets in recent years have reached ultra-low levels. To continue enjoying the kind of returns they have historically had, Moses says, they would be attracted to cryptocurrencies, which have been growing in value, despite crashes and concerns about government regulation.

year, Nigeria was already ranking third globally, after the United States and Russia, of the countries with the highest cryptocurrency trading volumes,” he says. Nigerians in the diaspora regularly complain about the delays and high transaction fees at banks and international money transfer operators like Western Union and Moneygram. “As rational economic agents, [Nigerians] opting for cryptocurrency for this purpose would only be natural, as it solves all these problems and offers a better banking experience,” Moses says. Apart from to cover household expenditure, diaspora Nigerians send money home to invest, procure assets or store value. To attract more remittances from the diaspora, the Nigerian government has created diaspora bonds and sought to leverage diaspora investments. In 2017, the country issued its first diaspora bond, which raised $300m. But the mismatch in the country’s fiscal and monetary management

Nigeria, top trading nation

BITCOIN TRADING VOLUME ON ONLINE EXCHANGES IN NIGERIA In 1,000 Nigerian Naira (NGN) In U.S. dollars (USD)

20 15 10 5 0 2016

2017

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

2018

2019

2020

SOURCE: STATISTA

By TEMI’ LAWAL in Lagos

Moses compares Nigeria with other African peers … and thinks something doesn’t add up: “If you look at comparable African countries which recorded increased remittance inflow [during the same time period] and the fact that the decline Nigeria experienced was steeper than the World Bank’s projection, it means something was obviously different in the case of Nigeria, and that wouldn’t be Covid-19, a universal crisis. I therefore think that the decline wasn’t as huge as [was] reported but just a case of what was captured on official records.” From March to June this year, Nigerians traded Bitcoin in deals worth $225m on Paxful, a cryptocurrency trading platform. With a total $1.5bn in trade volumes and 1.5 million users, the platform declared Nigeria as its biggest crypto market in April this year. If you can’t beat them, join them seems to be the central bank’s

Enjoy superfast Internet wherever you live in Africa

Konnect satellite Internet, for everyone, everywhere Internet, for individuals and professionals wherever you are Thanks to the latest satellite technology, Konnect (Eutelsat Group) is participating in the development of the African continent by acting to reduce the digital divide. Konnect has created a range of services and packages to provide Internet connectivity, even in areas not covered by any other technology. Konnect is the promise of high-quality, affordable internet for all. Konnect provides public institutions, individuals and businesses with flexible, affordable internet packages. Satellite Internet from konnect is accessible nationwide, even where there was no reliable connection before. Konnect offers a wide range of fixed internet packages. This range includes connection speeds of up to 100 Mbps and prices from 14$/month, offering a package for all needs and means. Thanks to our Happy Hours, users data consumption is not counted between 10pm and 6am, so data hungry downloads and updates can be scheduled overnight without counting towards data consumption. These services are available on a prepaid basis to meet the needs of the African market.

Connectivity for development Konnect regularly works with African governments and public institutions to bring quality connectivity to remote areas. These actions make it possible, among other things, for public services to continue even in the event of crises or extreme conditions, they allow isolated hospitals to benefit from telemedicine, and they connect thousands of schools and teachers to knowledge.

Learn more at konnect.com or call us any time via WhatsApp on:

+225 05 85460987 Our lines are open 24/7

At the same time, we are developing our Express Wifi service to provide a quality Internet connection for people with limited financial means or needs. Express Wi-Fi from konnect offers Internet access to even the most isolated areas. Our Wi-Fi “Hotspots” provide connectivity with a 100-metre radius. Flexible Wi-Fi vouchers provide access from 1 hour up to 1 month and many options in between. They are available for as little a 0,25$. These hotspots can be located at shops, schools, town halls and farms to name a few. Konnect is always on the lookout for retail partners, installers and small businesses looking to diversify their income and connect their community with the help of our Express Wifi solution. Anyone interested in setting up a hotspot can contact the Konnect team (https://africa.konnect. com/fr/nous-contacter) to find out more. Finally, we enable everyone to connect their family to the world or to develop their business, regardless of their geographical location. Today, nearly 40 African countries can benefit from konnect services.

Key benefits of konnect include: 1.

High speed – A first for Africa with speeds up to 100 Mbps

Quality – Video streaming up to full HD-quality

Affordable – Starting from 14$/month

All inclusive package – Rental of the equipment is from 79$

To find out how you can benefit from super-fast broadband wherever you live visit: www.konnect.com

NIGERIA FOCUS /

thinking. On 27 July Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Godwin Emefiele announced that it would be launching the e-naira. Might that be an attempt to divert some of that diaspora crypto flow through government accounts, thereby helping to stabilise Nigeria’s currency? Ahmed Akinyele, a strategy and investment expert at L.A.T Cleveson, a Lagos-based investment company, tells The Africa Report that the plan to launch a digital currency in October could be a fruitless venture.

No incentive “I don’t think the CBN’s e-naira will capture the diverted remittances or generally boost remittance inflow. Nigeria’s credit rating [as an issuer] is negative, and that repels investors. The macroeconomic variables are also not great. We have had sluggish growth, inflationary pressures have been on the increase. So, I don’t think there will be a massive adoption of the e-naira,” says Akinyele. The decision for members of the diaspora will largely depend on the form that the digital currency will

TEMILADE ADELAJA/REUTERS

Before the ban, Bitcoin could be used to buy simple gadgets in Lagos

$99m

Peer-to-peer Bitcoin trade by Nigerians in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of about 28% on last year

take, says Moses, who argues that there are just two possible options: either it is given standalone currency status, or will be designed as simple payment tokens. He argues that, if it is the latter, the same concerns that currently exist regarding unstable and arbitrary exchange rates remain. But if the e-naira is given currency status, there will then be discussions about how it will be priced. In other words, if it offers better pricing opportunities so that senders get a good rate when their remittances are converted to the local digital currency, that serves as an incentive. Diaspora remittance inflow is the second largest source of foreign exchange earnings for Nigeria, and, with the CBN’s micromanagement regime of the exchange rates, it is likely to do what it can to boost foreign reserves. “The

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

naira-for-dollar scheme by the CBN earlier this year was a signal that the remittance inflow was declining. That was then followed by the cryptocurrency ban. That sends the signal that the monetary authority could see how cryptocurrency was diverting remittance inflows through that channel,” says Moses. Nigerians traded Bitcoin worth $309.6m in 2020. South Africa and Kenya, whose trading volumes were $98.4m and $92.4m respectively, came in second and third. Since it seemed that the naira-for-dollar scheme had not fully attracted the diverted remittances to the official channels, the CBN reiterated its ban on banks doing crypto transactions. Many Nigerians, in response, have moved from crypto exchanges to peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions. The country’s average monthly peer-to-peer Bitcoin volume, for example, has increased to $33.1m from $25.8m last year. In the first quarter of this year, the P2P Bitcoin trade by Nigerians was worth $99.1m – $62m more than second-placed Kenya traded in the same period.

Etex is an International building materials company with over years of market experience in the production and sale of high-quality Gypsum products and fibre-cement ceiling & building boards in Nigeria.

Our local brands

Lagos Office: 43 Oba Akran Avenue, Ikeja Lagos State Tel: 0811. 393. 6267

Wherever people build

Enugu Office: 7 Old Abakaliki Road, Emene Enugu State 0811. 162. 0398

NIGERIA FOCUS /

INTERVIEW

Tony Elumelu BRUNO LEVY FOR JA

‘Insurance should not be a luxury’ The founder of Nigerian group Heirs Holdings told The Africa Report about his big-picture vision of insurance as a boon for the economy and social mobility By NICHOLAS NORBROOK Heirs Holdings, the holding company controlled by Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu, launched two insurance companies in June. Hiers Insurance and Hiers Life Assurance will target Nigeria’s burgeoning middle classes. “Insurance should not be a luxury. And, just as we have democratised other sectors, we will democratise insurance,” Elumelu told the crowd gathered at the official launch of the companies in Lagos in June. “It has been an eight-year long journey, but with the optimism and the resilience that have brought us this far, it has been worth the wait.” Elumelu remains bullish about the prospects from insurance in the country. “We think that the insurance penetration in Nigeria is very low. We are strategic, long-term investors. We see opportunities where others don’t see,” he said. “Given the size of our economy, the size of our population, given the strong role

of insurance in other economies it’s only a matter of time for that to happen here.” A report by the pan-African credit rating agency Agusto & Co. put insurance penetration in Nigeria at less than 1%. It also identified a key problem: the collapse of the industry’s capital base. While this hit $2.2bn in 2007, it is now less than $1bn. The regulator has been threatening to enforce a new minimum capital base for some time. With this, and six new entrants into the sector – including Heirs – Agusto argues that the greater competition will spark a fresh round of mergers and acquisitions as the sector consolidates. Elumelu says that the deeper pools of capital that insurance

‘WE SEE OPPORTUNITIES WHERE OTHERS DON’T SEE ’

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

create are essential to drive other parts of the financing ecosystem. “We think it’s been sleeping; it’s been idle. We think insurance is so critical in the wider financial intermediation space.” He says the role of companies like his is to “help jump-start the sector” and that the digital knowhow within the group – which includes leading consumer-facing bank UBA – will give it the edge. “[We’ll be] bringing what we know how to do, prioritising customers, using digital applications to drive business. We think we will rekindle the interest of the Nigerian public in the insurance space.”

Help for homebuyers Elumelu believes insurance is a key transformational tool for Nigerians. “We need to make sure that everyone will leave school. They start working. They want to buy a house. You want to buy a house easily, and banks are ready to finance this but the fear is always that you foreclose,” said Elumelu. Access to housing and mortgages could thus be partially tackled through insurance. But it will require changes in the laws around land titles and foreclosure, which currently do not encourage investment in the sector.

NIGERIA FOCUS /

FRANCE

Macron’s palace diplomacy rings the changes for France in Africa France’s president is looking to build deeper and wider ties with the continent, boosting business with Nigeria and debating new ways forward elsewhere in Africa By NICHOLAS NORBROOK

giant CGM CMA, Rodolphe Saadé; the CEO of Accor, Sébastien Bazin; the CEO of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanné; and the head of the Hopitaux de Paris, Martin Hirsch, were also all present. President Macron’s yardstick for success is deals signed. Building on the accords of September 2020, BUA Group signed a new deal with Axens for the second phase of its

France’s President Emmanuel Macron spent formative months as an intern at the French embassy in Abuja. Now, he wants to better connect French companies to the vast economy that is Nigeria. His plan includes some good oldfashioned economic diplomacy. As part of the ‘Choose France’ business summit at Versailles in June, Macron invited six Nigerian business heavyweights to a private meeting, bringing top-level French CEOs to the table too. It is part of a multi-year campaign to chase big contracts in anglophone Africa. A highlight, at the 2020 summit, was a contract signed between French petrochemical group Axens and Nigeria’s BUA Group to provide the technology for the latter’s multibillion-dollar refinery.

France’s efforts appear to have been successful: the rarely spotted Mike Adenuga of Globacom (glo); Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote; UBA chairman Tony Elumelu; BUA chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu; property magnate Gilbert Chagoury and Access Bank boss Herbert Wigwe all gathered in Versailles. In addition – unlike at a previous attempt at a FrancoNigerian business summit – the French participation was similarly high: the CEO of French logistics

JONATHAN SARAGO/MEAE

Petits fours, big deals

Fallen kings make way for modern magnates at the Choose France summit in the Palace of Versailles

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

refinery project. But the star of the show was Wigwe, who announced the negotiation of a French banking licence for Access Bank, which will allow him to open a full-service bank, not just a representative office, in France. Meanwhile, Elumelu’s Heirs Holdings is said to be pushing to transform its Paris representative office into a fullservice banking entity.

The Versailles summit also allowed for the high-level networking that France’s minister of foreign trade, Franck Riester, has been pushing. Adenuga, for example, was introduced to French satellite communications group Eutelsat. That meeting has borne fruit, with a partnership that was due to be signed in late September at a special Lagos-themed event at the Elysée Palace in Paris. It should see the deployment of 500 wifi relay stations in rural areas of Nigeria that will be connected to a Eutelsat satellite. Likewise, French group Vocalcom, which already manages the call centre software for Globacom in Nigeria, hopes to cement a new deal in the mobilemoney sector with glo. It has not been entirely plain sailing for the France-Nigeria relationship. A deal between BUA Group and St Gobain to create a

plasterboard factory in Nigeria fell through, with BUA’s Rabiu choosing a Turkish firm instead. The initial deal had been announced in June. Sources inside the Elysée [the presidential residence] stress that this simply underlines both the tough competitive outlook for all companies globally, French included, and the need for exactly this kind of relationship-building diplomacy to build closer ties.

Lagos comes to the Elysée The Elysée Palace event is a way for President Macron to keep the Franco-Nigerian Business Council active. It also marks the end of France’s Africa2020 cultural season, for which the Elysée Palace and courtyard has been transformed into a immersive sound and visual replica of Lagos for the enjoyment of Macron and some 100 guests. France’s Nigeria strategy is

$5bn

JONATHAN SARAGO/MEAE

After France agreed to provide Sudan with a $1.5bn bridging loan to help the country clear its arrears with the IMF, Macron indicated at a conference in May that he was open to fully clearing Sudan’s $5bn debt to France

part of a larger reset that the European country is seeking in its relations with the continent. With this in mind, France will be holding a France-Africa Summit in Montpellier on 8 October. It will attempt to bring new voices into what is an occasionally fraught relationship, weighed down by colonial baggage and current-day flashpoints over the role of French security forces in the Sahel and of France’s central bank in the management of the CFA currency regimes. Led by Cameroonian philosopher Achille Mbembe, a series of France-Nigeria Dialogues will bring the perspective of youth and diaspora groups into the conversation. This marks a wider and deeper engagement with the continent for France. In May, Paris held a conference on the financing of Africa’s economies, at which it announced debt relief for Sudan. It also held a separate event in support of Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in order to help Sudan better reintegrate into the global economic system. France took the opportunity to push for a new deal for the continent, asking for a redistribution of the recent disbursal of IMF special drawing rights.

Trade minister Franck Riester meets messrs Rabiu, Dangote and Elumelu

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117 / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

LAST WORD

WHAT THE PAPERS DON’T SAY AFRICA NO FILTER

MOKY MAKURA Executive director, www.AfricaNoFilter.org

By the end of 2021, 13 African countries will have held presidential elections. That’s 13 different opportunities for global media to paint the same picture of rigged and, in some cases, violent elections. This has become the single story of democracy in Africa. Is it an African election if it’s not unfair, violent or marred by chaos and social-media shutdown? We won’t have long to wait for an answer because in the next three months Somalia, Cabo Verde, Gambia and Libya will hold their elections. Elections in Benin, Chad, Djibouti, Niger, Congo, São Tomé e Príncipe, South Sudan and Uganda have done little to change the narrative, so it was with great interest that I kept my eyes on Zambia’s August elections for the country’s next president. It was a race with two frontrunners: President Edgar Lungu, who had been in office since 2015, and businessman Hakainde Hichilema, who won 59% of the votes. Contrary to the dominant narrative in the reporting, Zambia is not new to democratic elections. Hichilema himself has participated in five previous elections and will be the country’s seventh president since the late Kenneth Kaunda, Zambia’s first president, who served from 1964 to 1991 and died earlier this year.

138 THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 117

With a free and fair election now under Zambia’s belt, and with the benefit of hindsight, many of the media headlines and predictions appear almost laughable. For The Economist, a free and fair election was not on the horizon. ‘Zambia’s election is crucial,’ the magazine reported some days before election day, ‘but it’s not a fair fight. Hakainde Hichilema deserves to be elected, but the world should prepare for a rigged vote.’ The Economist wasn’t the only news platform that predicted chaos. ‘Zambians head to the polls, but hopes of a free election are slim,’ said South Africa’s Business Day Live. CAJ News Africa declared the country had hit ‘rock bottom’ after Lungu initially rejected election results. However, Lungu went on to accept the results and subsequently congratulated the new president in a handover of power that was free from violence. Reports that didn’t suggest that the elections would be unfair said poverty, economic woes and Covid-19 underscored the polls. Zambia’s economy is indeed in recession due to Covid-19, but this is a global issue that also created a public health and economic crisis in the US. The Zambian election had its expected clichés. The internet was shut down, but the law prevailed when the High Court ruled that access should be fully restored. There were accusations and counteraccusations of violence against members of the campaigning parties, and even a military presence on election day. Still, there was a high turnout at polling stations. It showed that Zambians had faith in the democratic system working, as evidenced by the peaceful handover of power in previous general elections. This stereotypical framing of African elections is problematic and feeds a narrative about this continent that many Africans and their leaders are trying to move away from. Elections in Africa are not a test for democracy; they are proof that democracy and institutions meant to uphold the system work, despite the typical politicking of elections everywhere.

STEP INTO THE TALLEST AND WIDEST CABIN IN THE INDUSTRY.

NOVOSIBIRSK URUMQI NEW YORK MUMBAI CARACAS

LAGOS

SAO PAULO

MAURITIUS

BUENOS AIRES

The incomparable Falcon 6X cabin. 6-feet, 6-inches (1.98 m) tall, 8-feet, 6-inches (2.58 m) wide. With wide aisles. Bright, extra-large windows and skylight. Whisper-quiet cabin. Cutting-edge technology. Amazing. Range from Lagos: Standard Aircraft, 6 passengers, M.80, ISA, 85% Boeing Annual Wind Reliability, NBAA-IFR Reserves

WWW.FALCON6X.COM I FRANCE: +33 1 47 11 88 68 I USA: +1 201 541 4600