TAR122 - Q12023 - Africa in 2023 + Extractive

From KinshasaandMaputotoAddisandAbidjan, meettheAfrica Top30takingstridesintheircareers: VISITAFRIC AT OP 30.T RA CE .T V

POLITICS REDR AW N

tech-savvy youngpeopletakingtothestreets, holding ministersaccountable.

Thankstograssrootsactivists,Africanow hassomeofthemosttechnicallysophisticated electionsinthe world. Lookatthe voter verificationsystemsin KenyaandNigeria. Butpoliticalwilliscritical, eveninthehightechera.Shenanigans withelectorallistsand theriskofhacksintheelectoralcommission serveroffernewchances tofixthenumbers

In Kenya’snational electionsin August, WilliamRuto’s campaign ranafarbetter connectedand resourcedtechteamthanRaila Odinga’s.TheRutoteam’s masteryofthe electoralprocessescountered theinfluenceof Odinga’smoretraditionalistalliancebroking.

Shiftsinthe political weather canbeharde tointerpretthandisruptionsin demography, technologyandclimatechange, buttheyare justassubstantive. Politicalsystemsarewhere Africa’s mega-trendsconverge.

Forevery government,three factors standout:the demographictransitions underwhichAfricawillhave the world’s highest number of working-agepeople by 2050,thepoweroffinancialand communicationstechnologyto restructuretheireconomies,andthethreatof climatechangeto destroy production andforcemassmigration.

Someofthaturgencyplayedoutatthe COP27climate summit,where Global South delegateswontheargumentto setup alossanddamagefundtocompensate stateshit by climatedamage. The nextstage– organisingcontributionsand disbursing payments –willbemoretesting still, but alandmarkhasbeenpassed.

Gettingthereneeded cross- continental organisation.Africa wenttothesummitwith multiplicityofcontinental,nationaland local organisations,overlappingandclashingasthe sawfit.A newclimatepoliticsisemerging.

Formanygovernments,the ideaofdisrup tionconjuresuptrouble.Narrowly,forman inpower, itmeanshundredsofthousandsof

Asubscriptionto aVPN andanencrypted messagingserviceare derigeur formodern Africanactivists,whilesocial-mediaplatforms have boostedtheirsphereforcritiquingthe statusquo.Inresponse,rulingpartyapparatchiksare settingupmirrorsagainstthe ocialmedia r:toconfuseand ppositionpoliticalmessaging, and gime’s line. national heSahel,theHornandbeyond. uninparallelwith rnmentscrimitrictingor ivil-societyorganisations. bruarywill criticallytestthisdigital-analoguebalntcandidate but witha rcomethe la Tinubu heorganisationand ountrywithsome ormidable, hatiswhy atched.

#122 /January-February-March2023

17 AFRICAIN2023

Heav yweightelections, Benin bronze s, debt re structuring, fintech innovation,Gulfinves tment, por tdevelopment s, long-stay presidents,new re gional force s, striking nurs es…aglimpse of theyearahe ad

FEATURES

36 OPINION /TheshameofscapegoatingMandela

Youngcitizens and ANCleaders areblaming thefatherof South Africa forcontinued povert yandcrime,whilepopulis ts de stroyhis le gacy of tolerance and Africanunity.Whatifthe ANCtookalook at it self instead?

38 INTERVIEW /PresidentofGhana,NanaAkufo-Addo

PresidentAkufo -Addotalks to The Africa Report ab out thecountry’s recent $3bnde al withtheIMF,Ghana’s future ambitions, and how educationishis redline.

43 INVESTIGATION /TikTok &thepoliticsoftomorrow

As socialmedia become sthe ultimate toolb othfor savv ypoliticians andmanipulativeforeigngovernment s, The Africa Report analys es thes cale of disinformation in Ghana’sTikTokcommunity,and Big Tech’s manyfailure sonthe continent

104 EXTRACTIVESDOSSIER

Theincre asingallureofminerals linked totheenerg ytransition.

52 NIGERIA ELECTIONS

The‘change’electionin February will open up a pos t- Buhari era,withthe economykey forvoters.

68 DRCFOCUS

PresidentFélix Tshisekedi hasayeartoconvince theelectorate he’s worth anotherterm.

121 LIBYAFOCUS

Thecountry is tr ying toturn roundthe oils ectordespite politicalchaos

77REGIONBY REGION

From elections toactivism,the continent is proving it smet tleasit do esn’tjustrecover from the pandemic –itthrives.

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With arevenue €6.9billion,access to 47 ofthe54countries onthe co nt inentan dm oret han21,000employe es, theCFAO Grou p,Co rporat ion Fo rAfrica &O ve rseas , co ntributes to thegrow thofth eAfrican co ntinent,its industrializ at ionan dthe emergenceofthemiddleclass, drawingonitsin-depth fieldknowledgeandlocal expertise TheGrouppartnerswithleadinginternationalbrandsand coverstheentirevaluechain –import,production,distribution–inlinewiththebestinternationalstandards.

FREE TR ADE

If a SouthAfrican company wins a contract in a foreign country, nobodysuggests that such a company ought nottohave beenconsidered onaccountof being a foreigncompany [‘Accused fromallsides, Beijing counter-attacks’, TAR online, 3 Oct2022]. I am100% certainthat Chinese companies know how to build good roads. I have drivenonthemall over Africa.Iftheiroffer ischeaperanditwill mostlikelybecompleted withinthe timeagreed upon,I see no reason why they should notbe giventhesecontracts. While they are atit, perhapsthey should send a thousandengineersand take Eskom over.

Carl du Plessis

DIGITAL ON THE DOWN -LOW

I lived inBangui from Jan-June2018, andam stillintouchwith friends there. Noone I knew –lower-middle-class CentralAfricansand Eritreans – knew about themove tocrypto, nor

whatitmeant[‘CAR backsdownfromimplementing cryptocurrency law’, TAR online,27 July2022]. Perhaps a handfulofpoliticaland foreignelite s will be able touseitto move money inand out ofthe country That’s about it, apartfrom,ofcourse, thedreadfulprospectof Wagnerusingittomove diamondsandother ill- gottenprofitsbackto Russia.

Anonym ous

HOWTOGETYOURCOPYOFTHEAFRICAREPORT

A LONG WAY TO GO

Lai Mohammed wasn’tlying when recountingBuhari’s achievements[‘Buhari’s quality performance willboost Tinubu’s chances’, TAR online,18 Nov 2022],particularlyinthearea of infrastructure. Buharihas also done a great dealinotherareas inthepastseven-plus years of his administration:huge funds released for socialinvestmentandsecurity; agriculture has received a majorboost; [the]power supply is improving; EFCC andICPC have become a more fearfulbugbear of corruptNigerians. On theflip side, youthunemployment remainshigh, inflationis eatingtoo deeply intoourpockets, tertiary education is in chaos, andthe political atmosphere remainsuncertain, even volatile.

Gilber t Alabi Diche

BAD MANAGEMENT ?

One wondersindeed ifthefinanceminister isthesolecauseofthe inflationinGhana[‘I amnotguilty,butIam sorry forthehardship’, TARonline,22Nov 2022].Mostcountries arewrestlingwithprice hikes,andmostofthem areplayingwithREPO rateadjustments,which isanapproachto reduce moneysupplyinthe market. Thegistofthe matter isthatthere is

cost-pushinflationdueto hiccupsandorblockages onthesupplyside, thus reducingthe money supplyis onlyashort solution. The sustainable solutionistoaddress thesupplychain.Rising inflationary pressures, exacerbated by rising commodityprices, are compounding thepolicy challenges ofbalancing economic recovery withmaintaining price stability, says theIMF Jo el Uwizeye

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BidenracesBeijingandMoscow inthebattleforinfluence

of Africa’sbiggest banks &insurancefirms

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JANUARY COUPIN OUAGADOUGOU

People show their suppor t for the military af ter it deposed President Roch Marc ChristianKaboré outside RTB television headquar ters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on 24 Januar y.

Whileviolenceandmilitaryshowsofpower marredmanyAfricannations,peaceatleast descendedonEthiopiain2022.Climate changeandregimechangeviedfor attention,and WestAfricarejoicedatGhana goalsandthereturnoftwoBeninbronzes

AUGUST MOSCOWFLEXESMUSCLE

A member of the closeprotection unitfor Central African Republic president Faustin-Archange

Touadéra, composed of Russian private security company operatives from Sewa Security

Russian military consultants have set up training for the CAR Armed Forces and the Internal Securit y Forces

MARCH PETROLPANIC

JULY WOMENFORPEACEIN KHARTOUM

Sudane se women took tothe streets in the Bashdar station area in southern Khartoum on July 26,protesting against the military coup in 20 01 led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a spike in tribal violence that left more than 100 people dead

GUERCHOM

Rising petrol prices provoked by the war in Ukraine force motorcyclists in Bukavu, easternDRC, to queue up for the last affordable litres of fuel

YEARIN IMAGES

AUGUST ASHOCKFORJ-LO

The Angolanelection of 24 August took away much ofthe power of President Joâo Lourenços governing MPL A, leaving it with a le ss-than-t wo -thirds majority in parliament.

AUGUST BRONZESRESTITUTED

A bronze cockerel anda bust (below) werereturned tothe Oba of Beninpalace in Nigeria,whence they were looted by the British army in 1897

OCTOBER HIGH WATERS

Anaerial view shows the aftermath of the flooded landscape of Yenagoa, the capital town of Bayelsa, Nigeria, on 21 October. The flood and humanitarian crisisis worsening in Nigeria’s south.

CHEN CHENG/XINHUA/REA KOLA SULAIMON/AFP

NOVEMBER COP27

Ugandan climate activists

Vane ssa Nakate and AidahNakku take par t in the Fridays for Future strike during the COP27 summit in Eg ypt.

SEPTEMBER THE HUSTLERSTANDS TALL

Kenya’s new president, William Ruto, listens tothe national anthem during his swearing-in ceremony atMoi International Stadium in Nairobi.

EMILIE MADI/REUTERS BAZ RA TNER/REUTERS

NOVEMBER PEACEINETHIOPIA

After two yearsof brutal war in northern Ethiopia, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula (left) of the Ethiopian National Defence Force and General Tadesse Worede (right)of the Tigray Defence Forces shook hands, watched by formerpresidents of Nigeria and Kenya Olusegun Obasanjo and Uhuru Kenyatta

NOVEMBER AFRICANGOALS

Ghana’s Mohammed Salisu scores his first goal in the 28 November World Cup match against South Korea (3-2 to Ghana). Five African nations (Cameroon, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal and Tunisia) qualified for the 2022 contest in Qatar.

NOVEMBER REGIONALRESPONSE

Kenyan soldiers land in Goma, DRC, on 12 November as part of a regional military operation targeting theoffensives of the M23 rebels in the region.

YA SUYOSHI

DO YOU

REMEMBER

1

Howmanysickdays has PresidentMuhammadu Buharitakenduringhistwo termsinoffice?

a. 50

b. 100

c. Morethan200

Thinkyou’vegotagriponthecontinent’snews, factsandfigures?Thefirstfivepeopletoanswer all12questionscorrectlywillreceiveayear’s subscriptiontoourdigitaledition.Pleasee-mail youranswersto: quiz@theafricareport.com by1February2023.

7 Egypt depends ontheNile forhow muchofits water?

a. 85%

b. 65%

c. 97%

2

Howmanyjournalists were killed inAfricain 2022,accordingtoUnesco?

a. None

b. 6

c. 45

3

WhichAfrican citygrew the fastest in2022?

a. Lagos

b. Nairobi

c. Accra

4

Which controversial topic wasa last-minute addition to theagendaatthe COP27 inEgypt?

a. Climatecompensation

b. Adaptationfunding

c. Gasemissions

5 Piracy levelsin WestAfricaare…

a. Improving

b. Aboutthesame

c. Shivermetimbers!

6

Whichmodern-day countryisthesetting ofthebox- officehit The WomanKing?

a. Nigeria

b. Ghana

c. Benin

10

WhichAfrobeatsstar wonaMusicofBlack Origin(MOBO) award for BestInternational Actthis year?

a. Wizkid

b. Burna Boy

c. Rema

8

For whatdid Tanzania’s PresidentSamiaSuluhu use thecountry ’s $411,000 Independence Day budget?

a. Abigcountry-wide celebration

b. Redoingherpresidential residence

c. To build dormitories forchildrenwith specialneeds.

9

WhichAfricannation abolishedtheteaching ofEnglishinprimary schoolsthis year?

a. Nigeria

b. Morocco

c. Senegal

Blockbustermovie The WomanKing

11

WhichAfricancitycame outasthesafestonthe continentina2022 barometer?

a. AddisAbaba

b. Cape Town

c. Kigali

12

WhichAfrican leader isalsothe fatherof acurrentplayeron theUSteaminthe 2022FIFA WorldCup?

a. NanaAkufo-Addo

b. George Weah

c. WilliamRuto

WhilethemacroeconomicstormsblowninfromRussiaandUkraine willcontinuetoinflatepricesacrosstheregion,Africawillcontinueto defythepessimistswarningofdemographicexplosionandsecurity risksbydeliveringdemocraticprogressinNigeria,theDRC,Libyaand Zimbabwe... anon-exhaustivelist.Innovationandentreprenerial vervewillkeepsurprisingfinanciersacrossthecontinent,while Africa’sculturalexportshavealreadyconqueredtheiraudience.

CA N WE REFORM GLOBAL INST IT UT IONS IN A POLYCR ISIS?

sometimes echoing ideas longpushed by developing-countrypolicymakers InSeptember, attheUN General Assembly, US PresidentJoeBiden called for wholesale reformofthe UN Security Councilandthe vetorightsof thefive permanentmembers(Britain, China, France, Russiaand theUS). Biden argued thatAfricaand Latin America were woefullyunder-represented intheUNhierarchy.

Three world ve ctors– security, financial markets and planetary warming – are driving a push for sweeping changes in international institutions. Someofthemost radicalproposals for re structuring theinternational systeminmorethan75 yearswillbe onthetablein2023.

Advocates aren’tholdingtheircollective breath for positive responses fromthe key institutions – theUNagencies, theIMFandthe World Bank, and theG20groupofbiggest economies withitsricher, seniorbrother, theG7 Butpressure ismounting.

There is a strikingconsensus between activists, businesses andpolicymakersthattheinternationalsystem no longer works– eveniftheir prescriptions for fixing itdiffer radically.

That builds onthesense of a “hinge era” – that de cisionsabout health,

ecologyandglobalinequalitybeing made, ornotbeingmade, now could reverberate for the restofthecentury or longer.

Advocates for change draw parallels with1945:theendof World War II, whichsaw the establishmentofthe UN, theIMFandthe World Bank Thepriorities then were topreventthe outbreak ofanother war, tochannel fundsintopost-war reconstruction,and the growingacceptancethatEuropean states would have to surrendertheir colonies inAfricaand Asia.

Overthepastfive years, calls for change have beenfloodingintothe biggest institutions:more openand accountable governance, more resources, and innovative policies to dealwith spiralling debtcrises andthestillmore relentless threat ofclimatechange.

In2023,a slew of international commissions, some officialandsome studiously independent andnon-aligned, are duetoproduceviable strategies tobringaboutthis change.

Fuelled by the geopoliticalturmoil over Russia’s war onUkraine, many proposalsin2022 emanated fromthe political establishment inthe West,

It was the strongest call for top-down UNchange by any US President since thesystem was setup. Then,with Africanheadsofstateand government flyingto Washington DC for theUSAfrica leaders’ summitinDecember, Biden announced he would backthe admissionofthe AU as a permanent memberoftheG20, with thesame votingandattendancerightsasthe EU Thismove’s impact was lessened by the factthatit followed China’s and Turkey’s earlieradvocacy ofthe AU’s admission.TheEU looked behindthe curve ontheissue, despiteclaimingit was Africa’s naturalstrategic partner whenitorganiseda grandconference withthe AU inBrusselsin February

On a paralleltrack, US Treasury SecretaryJanet Yellenhascalled for a wide-ranging overhaul at the World Bank to respond tothemountingcosts ofclimatedamage, particularlyin low- tomedium-incomecountries. Shealso wantschanges toincentives and operatingmodels, andperhaps a more innovative use ofthe Bank’s financial resources.

At the Bank’s annual meetingwith theIMFin Washington DC inOctober, Yellenasked fora roadmap for changes by January. France and Germany added their weight tothe calls.

As inthecalls for UN reform,policymakersinAfrica, As iaand La tin America wanttheBank’s governance opened upwithstronger representation andpolicy inputsfromtheir regions.

The MultilateralDevelopment Banks (MDBs) were launchedusingsmall amountsofpaid-incapitalbacked by government guarantees (callable

capital). Today, inthe faceofthe debtandclimatetasks ahead,they are badlyunder-capitalised.

Western officials have criticise d the World Bank, thebiggest MDB, for failingto raise thetrillionsneeded for pandemic recovery. Butthe Bank hasjust$19bnofpaid-in capitaland $278bn ofcallable capital.

Theanswertothatcriticism would be rewritingtherules on theBank’s callable capital – something Western economies have long resisted.The OverseasDevelopmentInstitutein London reckons thatallowingcallable capital guarantees tobeincluded in lendingoperations could help raise another$1.3trn through the MDBs.

Themost radicalplantowhichthe G20 economies agreed inthe wake ofthepandemic was toendorse the issuanceofanother$650bnofspecial drawingrights(theIMF ’s re serve currency)toboostthe reserves ofthe hardest-hit developing economies.

TheFundissued theSDRsin August 2021. But by December2022theG20 hadbeenunable toagree how to redistributethe reserves. France called

onlossanddamage

Estimates from the International Ene rg y Age nc y fo r the co stof green-energy transitiontohit the UN’s net zero targetsputthose figures into perspective: $4trn a year for the rest ofthe decade, frompublic andprivate sources– ofwhichat least$1trnwill beneeded in developing economies.

Noneofthecomponents inthe currentsystemare remotely able to raisethose sums. The OECD reckons that$2trn a year would beneeded for allUNstates to reachtheorganisation’s Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 OECDmembers’ aid isrunning atunder$180bn.

for at least$100bntobetransferred toAfricabutlacked thebackingof other Europeanstates.

Thatnear-glacialpaceofchange mightacceleratein2023afterthelandmark decision by the COP27 climate summitinSharm-el-Sheik, which backed thelaunchof a specialfund tocompensate countries hit by loss anddamage fromclimate change Now the questionisfunding.

ProposalsfromMiaMottley, prime minister ofBarbados, for theIMF to issue a further$650bnofSDRstohelp finance lossanddamage compensation,as wellastofund clean-energy development, could begin tobreak the stalemate on climate finance

Anobviouswin would bemore effective actionagainsttaxfraudand a generalised crackdownonthetrade mispricing thatmakes up most ofthe illicitfinancialflows, which are costing Africaalonesome $100bn a year.

A scramble toboost local revenue-raising powersisunder way in states acrossthe world,butagreeing onmore effective globalrules totax capital andcorporationscould prove nearly astortuous asnegotiating reformsintheUNandthe World Bank

Butthe weightofchallenges confrontingtheinternationalsystemseem tobe relentlesslypushingtowards change. The alternative would bethe system’s gradual, even rapid,disintegration.Andwiththat would go much hopetoaddress theinterlinked crises of climate, foodandsecurity

Thepaceofchange mayspeedupafter theCOP27decision

ADRIA FRUITOS FOR TA R

Heav yweightr ivalsa nd new contenders

everalmajo re le ction sw ill be conteste do n thecontinentin 2023.InsomeAfricannations, pollscouldmeanthedifference betwe en reinvigorating asociety andcontinuing astagnantdynasty. Ifhope sare nothighinGabon, Zimbabwe’spoliticalsceneismore dynamic. Electoralproblemspersist.Vote rigging,intimidation,and regularlychanging electorallaws pose athreattodemocratic freedom.Butthestoryis apositiveonein re cent ye ars.Fro m2 01 1to2 022 ,42n ew African leaderstookofficeafteranelection, moret hanhalfofthemfromopposition parties.A turningpoint?

NIGERIA FEBRUARY

Nigerianelectionsin Februarywillheralda newage.IncumbentpresidentMuhammadu Buhari(picturedabove)has reachedhisterm limit,leaving formervicepresident Atiku Abubakar,therulingparty ’s Bola Tinibuand youth favourite PeterObitobattleitoutto determineNigeria’s brightfuture.

Tinubuhasshownhistenacity,defeating asittingvicepresident,Senatepresident, fivegovernorsandmanyotherstowinthe sought-afterpresidentialticketofthe AP C. ItishopedthiselectionwillmarkNigeria’s thirdsuccessfultransitionofpower, despite increasedviolenceseenthroughoutthecountry

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN VIA GETTY

Change, inwhatever formitcomes, willbe welcomedbythemajorityofNigerians,who aredissatisfiedwiththecurrentadministration’s lackoftransparencyoraccountability, andthepoorqualityoflifeaspeoplestrugglewithinflationnowrunningat over20%. Unemployment remainsat33%.

Violenceinallpartsofthecountry has reached acrescendo.The government response wasnine-monthbanon Twitter, whichmany activistshave classified as censorship,coincidingasitdid withthe#EndSARS,apeaceful campaignagainstpolicebrutalitythat was brutally put down by thepolice.

As withallelections,disinformationis highonthe list of worries,asonlineelection campaigningbecome scommonplaceand Big Techcompaniesmakes profitsbut failto moderateharmfulcontentinAfrica.

ViolentincidentsinvolvingIslamistgroup Boko Haramand varioussplintergroups arean everydayoccurance.Attacksonthe offices oftheIndependentNationalElectoral Commission(INEC)have alsogrowninrecent months,leadingtouncertaintyaboutthesafety ofholding ageneralelection.

Theviolencehas ledtoapproximatelythree millionNigeriansbeingdisplacedacrossthe country,which le aves thepossibilityof a legitimateelectionin doubt.Itislikely that the resultwillbe determinedintheSupreme Court,ashasbeencommoninpreviousyears whencandidateshavebeenunhappywiththe outcomeand viabilityofelections.

Buharihas repeatedlyassuredNigerians andtheinternationalcommunitythatelectionswill be fairandtransparent.Inhislast Independence Daybroadcast,hesaid: “Having witnessedatclosequartersthepains,angush anddisappointmentofbeing avictimofan unfairelectoralprocess,thepursuitofan electoralsystemandprocessesthatguarantee electionof leaders by citizens remainsthe guidinglightasIpreparetowind downour administration.”

DRC DECEMBER

InDecember2023,theDemocraticRepublicof Congo(DRC)willholdcountrywide elections, includingpresidential,nationalandprovincial assemblypolls,and,forthefirst time,members ofapproximately300municipalcouncils.The electionis expectedtocost$600m,including

aconsiderableamountspentonsecurity.The country facesanongoinginsurgencyfrom armedgroups,includingM23 –whichisalso thesubjectoftensionswithneighbouring Rwanda(seepage72).Theunresthas ledto thedisplacementof hundredsofthousandsof people, whichaddsanother logisticalcomplicationtotheprocess,alongwiththecontinued threatsof Covid-19andEbola.

The governmenthaspledgedtosticktothe timeframe of elections,avoiding delays which canoftenstretchouttheconstitutionalprocess andanger voters.Governmentspokesperson PatrickMuyayasaidinOctober:“Itisnot a questionofnegotiatingwiththeconstitutional deadlines, itis aquestionofus respectingthem andconsolidatingour democracy.”

President Félix Tshisekediwill faceoff againsthis formerallyMoïse Katumbi,the ownerof CongolesefootballclubTPMazembe (bothpictured below).

ZIMBABWE JULY/AUGUST

Zimbabwe hassuspended its by-electionsin favourof amoresecureandcohesivegenerationelectionsin2023

Oppositionfigure NelsonChamisa, leader oftheCitizens Coalition forChange(CCC),is expectedtogoupagainst PresidentEmmerson Mnangagwa.Mnangagwa’svictoryinJuly2018 wasfiercelycontested by Chamisa butpromptlydismissedbythecountry ’s Constitutional Court. PerhapsthiswillbeChamisa’s moment,

ELLIS/POOL/AFP; JOHANNA DE TESSIÈRES/COLLECTIF HUMA FOR JA

asthelaunchof theCCC on22January,2022, hasbroughtnewlifetothepoliticalscene. In March,in by-elections for28seats,the CCC won 19andtherulingZimbabwe AfricanNational Union-PatrioticFront(ZANU-PF)wonnine Arerunofprevious electoralviolenceis expected:ZANU-PF has not loosene dits griponthecountry,andhas rampedupits sponsoring of youthmilitiasinruralareas.

GABON SEPTEMBER

Gabon’s electionsare notlikely to result in change, butofthecontinuationofthe Bongo dynastywellintoitssixth decadeofrunning thecountry.Omar BongoOndimbabecame presidentin1967,andhisson, PresidentAli BenBongo, tookthe reinsuponhis father’s deathin2009

The Bongoclanisnottakinganychances. InNovember,oppositioncandidateSosthène OrphéeLendjediIbola wasarrestedandput inprison overanincidentatOyemStadiumin April2020.Heischargedwithcalling foran uprising,destructionof apublicfacility, and forforming aterroristorganisation.

Ibola,whohad recently returned to Gabon fromCanada,announcedhiscandidacyin

March2022,saying: “I am acandidatebecause Ilove my country.Faced withthelamentable stateinwhichourcountryfindsitself,Icannot remainindifferent”.Hisparty,Orientation Nouvelle, believeshisarrestisanattempt to sideline himfromthe election.

LIBYA DATEUNCLEAR

The long-awaitedLibyanelectionsdidnot happenin2022, but were cancelled three times, leavingthecountryinturmoil.Originally scheduled forDecember 2018, theelections were delayedbecauseofsecurityconcerns.In December2021anotherattemptatorganising an election washaltedbytheLibyanHigh NationalElectoral Co mmission(HNEC), citingpoororganisationandtheabsenceof anofficiallistofcandidatesorany formal campaigning.Sincethen,pressurehasbeen putonthecurrentpowers by boththe West andtheLibyanpublic toactswiftly.

The eastern governmentoftheHouseof Representativeshas saidanew electiondate willbe decidedattheendofJanuary2023, whileinterim PrimeMinisterAbdulHamid DbeibahinTripolicalled fora constitution tobewrittenbeforeelectionscan beheld.

Ha nd it over

In Au gust 202 2,th eH orniman Museumin Londonannouncedit wouldreturn72artefacts,including theculturallysignificant Be nin Bronzes,toNigeria.TheBronzes were taken by Britisharmedforces duringthesackingof BeninCityin 1897,andthishistoryof eventual slaveryandbloodyviolence –a symbolofthe repressionmetedout

by colonialpowersinAfrica –has had an extensiveimpact on West Africansocieties beyondthe removal oftheirculturalhistory.

The de cisionhas reignite dthe debate surroundingstolen cultural relicsin We sternmuseums,with manypeopleasking:‘Whynotjust returnthem?’ Agrowingnumber oforganisationsandcompanies have admitte dresponsibility for theiractionsincolonisationandthe transatlantic slave trade, the echoes ofwhichcanbeheardinthe racial injusticeand inequalitythatstill pervades in manye conomically

prosperousand democraticcountries thathave cuttheircolonialties However, notallorganisationsare as generous.TheBritishMuseum re fus es to re turnit sown Be nin Bronzes,saying: “Thecollections alsoofferanimportantopportunity foraudiencestounderstandthehistoryoftheBritishconquestof Benin Cityandto reflecton theimpact ofthisperiodofcolonialhistory.” Butthepressureismountingon theaugustinstitution:Cambridge Universityhasnowannounce dit will returnmorethan100 loote d BeninBronzes toNigeria.

Africa ndebtors face steeproada head

longanddifficult yearstretches out fortheAfrican governments thathave borrowedtoomuch. WhileGhana’s tormentisunderthespotlight(seepage38), Tunisia, KenyaandNigeriawill all facetough challenges inthe monthsahead,expertssay

Ghana’s wo es will be justthestart.In Decemberthecountrysoughtadomestic debt restructuringwhichwill deprivefinancial institutionsofincomefrom governmentbonds in2023and leavethemwith reducedinterest paymentsthereafter.This wasfollowedbya staff-levelagreementwiththeIMF fora$3bn credit facility,anaccord whichstillneedsto beapprovedatboardlevel.

Debtrestructuring‘inevitable’

The gove rnm en tsofarha sh ad a“captivea udienc e” fo rdebtproposalsinth e shapeofthecountry ’s banks,saysIrmgard Erasmu s, sen io rf inancial ec onomistat Oxford EconomicsinCape Town.But the domesticdebtswap won’tsuffice by itself, and arestructuringofpublic external debtis “inevitable”.The waythatprocessplays out willhelptosetthetone forrestructurings elsewhere, Erasmussays.

TheIMFhassaidthatmorethan20African countries were in,oratriskof,debtdistressin2022. Tunisiais aprimecandidate

forrestructuringin2023,Erasmussays:the country ’s existingIMFprogramme won’tbe enoughtomeetitsfinancingneeds, andthe fiscalaccount won’tbeenoughtoclosethe gap.Erasmus estimatesthat Tunisia’spublic debtattheendof2022standsatan“unsustainable” 84%ofGDP.

Kenyaalsohas aheavy debtburden,andthe prospectof acontractingeurozone economyin 2023willcurb demand forits exports.Erasmus predictsthat the country’s merchandisetrade deficitin 2023will exceed 10%of GDP.

TimeisonKenya’sside

Still, a$ 2bneurobond ex piryisnotdue until2024. The countryneedstodiversify itscreditorbase,andErasmus expectsthe governmentto exploreothertypesofsecurity suchassamurai(yen- denominated)panda (renminbi- denominated)andgreenbonds.

She expectsthecountry maybeabletoroll overpartofitseurobondand useothertypesof securitytomakeupthedifference.Compared with Tunisia,“timeis on Kenya’sside”.

Nigeriahas leftitself exposedbyfailing totakeadvantageofhighoilpricesandnot ensuring adequatesecurity forproduction, leadingto rampanttheft,saysanexecutive at amajor multinationalinNigeria who asked nottobe identified.A changeofgovernment isurgent,and “noonecan wait forachange of governor”atthecentralbank.

SUB-SAHARANAFRICAGDPGROWTH, %2022 Percent,red =countriesinfragileandconflict-afectedsituations

AGOAngola;BDIBurundi;BENBenin;BFABurkinaFaso;BWABotswana;CAFCentralAfricanRepublic;CIVCôted’Ivoire;CMRCameroon:CODDemocraticRepublicofCongo; COGRepublicofCongo;COMComores;CPVCaboVerde;ERIEritrea;ETHEthiopia;GABGabon;GHAGhana;GINGuinea;GMBTheGambia;GNBGuinea-Bissau;GNQ EquatorialGuinea;KENKenya;LBRLiberia;LSOLesotho;MDGMadagascar;MLIMali;MOZMozambique;MUSMauritius;MWIMalawi;NAMNamibia;NERNiger;NGANigeria; RWARwanda;SENSenegal;SLESierraLeone;SSDSouthSudan;STPSaoTomé ePrincipe;SWZEswatini;SYCSeychelles;TCDChad;TGOTogo;TZATanzania;UGAUganda; ZAFSouthAfrica;ZMBZambia;ZWEZimbabwe

Thebiggestissue,the executivesays, isthe availabilityof foreigncurrency. “Noonecan getdollars. SpeaktoanycorporateinNigeria. Theamountofmicromanagementbythecentral bankon dollarsismind-boggling.”

Nigeriahas leverstopullthatGhanadoesn’t, the executiveargues. ItcouldquicklyliftGDP by droppingitsfuelsubsidy.That wouldbring theriskofsocialunrest –butifthecountry were to follow thepathofGhana,socialunrest wouldbeguaranteed.Moreneedstogo wrong forNigeriatoenduplikeGhana,but “theycan do itiftheyare sillyenough”,the executive says.

Aftertheelectionsin February,Nigeria will face achoicebetweenthepaths takenby WilliamRutoin KenyaandNanaAkufo-Addo inGhana,says CharlieRobertson,globalchief economistatRenaissance CapitalinLondon. Robertsonthinksit likelythatthe Kenya blueprint,whereRutoscrappe dthepetrol subsidyonbeingelected,willhave thegreater influenceonNigeria’s newgovernment.“The leadingcandidatesseemtounderstandthat the fuelsubsidyisunaffordable,”Robertsonsays.

Politicalrisk

Africawillfacea “yearofausterity” in2023, Robertsonsays.The “cheapand easy ”borrowingthat existe din the2010s probably won’tbeavailable,andcountries will need toconcentrateonbuildinguptheirfiscaland foreign-currencypositions,heargues.

Robertsonsees theprospectofhigherinflationcombinedwith lowerper-headGDP raising politicalrisk onthecontinent.“Governments need tobefiscally responsiblefor avery long time,” buthistorygives scantcause forconfidencethat they willbe, hesays

Acheaper currency, whichhasalreadybeen achieved by Egypt,ispartofthesolution, Robertsonsays.TheNigerian andEthiopian economieswouldbenefitfromcurrenciesthat are30%to40%cheaper,whileKenya could use a20% decline,headds.

Hesees groundsfor optimismintheCFA franc region,where thecurrencyispeggedto theeuro. Robertson estimates thattheeurois 15%undervaluedagainstthe dollarandsays Senegal,driven by oilinvestment,and Côte d’Ivoire, canbenefit.Afurtherbrightspot,he says,isAngola,where publicfinanceshave beenstrengthenedbyhigheroilpricesand a credibleausterityprogramme

Airescapes from Af rica fintech bubble

Venture-capitalinvestmentintoAfricanfintechsurged to $1.6bnin2021from$230min2020,accordingtothe PitchBook financialdataprovider.PitchBook’s figure forthefirstninemonthsofthisyear–$1.3bn–suggests afull-yearfigureroughlyinlinewith 2021.

Despiteallthe hype,Africastillhasonly ahandfulof unicorns,orstart-upswitha $1bnvaluation. As McKinsey notesinresearchpublishedinOctober, Africanfintech investmenthasbeenslowing downin linewithglobal trends.The continent’stotaladdressablemarket, McKinseyargues, islimited by infrastructureconstraints, suchas weak mobile andinternetpenetrationinsome markets,lackofidentification, andlimitedpayment rails.Onlythree countries have real-timepaymentsand thenecessary payment-railinfrastructure, thefirmsays

Moretargetedinvestment

Prospects forgrowth arestill real:McKinsey forecasts thatAfrican fintech revenuescouldreacheighttimes theircurrent value by 2025. Butinvestmentmaybecome targetedonspecificfunctions withinthe broadfintech theme. McKinseysayseconomies withmaturefinancial systems,such asSouthAfricaandNigeria,will attract innovationinmore advancedfinancialservicessuchas business-to-business (B2B)liquidity,andanti–moneylaunderingandknow-your-customer (KYC)technology Marketswith less developedfinancialinfrastructure arelikelytoseeadvances inthelikes ofbanking as a service, andbuynow, paylaterinretailandsmalland medium-sizeenterprise(SME) lending.

That’sapositivedevelopment, arguesBuhleGoslar, CEO forAfrica at theJumofintech.Until recently,she says,only middle-class Africanconsumersinmajor cities couldshop one-commerceplatforms.“There wasnoviablebusinesscaseforbusiness-to-customer (B2C) e- commerceplatforms formiddle-tolow-income Africanconsumers,” duemainlytolimitedinternet accessibilityandother logisticallimitations.

“This is rapidlychanging,” says Goslar,whoisalsoon theboard attheCopiaGlobalB2C platform.Africa’slowtomiddle-incomeconsumer,shesays,canbe “instrumental”inthegrowthofe-commerce,while building new digitaland financialsolutionsintoe-commerceoffers willunderpinfuturegrowth.

Investorsfromt heGu lf ta ke af resh look at Africa

ulfcountries have longbeen lookingatNorthAfricaandbeyond as away todiversifyinvestments andstrengthensupplychains.

Moroccohassignificantinvestmentfromthe Gulf –Mubadala, forexample, thesovereignwealth fundoftheUnitedArabEmirates (UAE), inve stsacrosstourism, aerospace and energy.The UAE’sBukhatirGroupis investing$5bnin Tunisian real estate,while UAE-based AMEAPowerisinvestinginsolar energy.SaudiArabiahas long invested in Ethiopia –partlytocreatesupplychains for agricultural goodslikesugar.

And,ofcourse,the Gulfhas longinvested inports;beyondDubai’sarmwrestlewith China forcontroloftheportinDjibouti,there hasbeeninvestmentinportsin Berberaand Somaliland,inparttoserverichlandlocked hinterlandsin Ethiopia,butalsotohelpin prosecutingtheendlesswarin Yemen.

Butthereare newdynamicsatplay. First, thecollapseofEgypt’scurrencyhas created

aseries ofbargains,snappedupbyGulfinvestors.InApril,Cairoannouncedthe sale ofnearly$40bninassets overfour yearsto tryto reviveaneconomyincrisis.

Buyer ’s market

SeveralGulfcountrieshavejumpe datthe opportunityandhave alreadyspent some $20bnontheacquisitionof publicassetsfor sale. Sovereign wealthfunds of theUAEand SaudiArabiahave beenacquiring governmentowne dstakes in someofEgypt’sbiggest companies,includingshares in Fawryand CommercialInternationalBank(CIB)seized upon by AbuDhabi’sADQ lastApril.

Second,thereare theglobal ramificationsof Russia’s warinUkraine.Inthesameway that Moscow-linkedmercenarygroup Wagnerhas hadtopullsomefightersoutofMali,sotoo have Russian companiespulled their hornsin onthecontinent.Thesanctions levied by the USandothershave alsocreatedjeopardy for variousRussiancorporatetargets,saysone London-basedbanker requestinganonymity

AbuDhabirulerandUAEpresidentSheikhMohamedbinZayedal-Nahyan: seizinginvestmentopportunitiesfromEgypt’ssaleof$40bninassets

IN2023,AFRICAN ENTREPRENEURS WILLBETHEFOCUSOF PROPARCO’S ACTION

Private

responds toitsclients’needsandsupportstheminmeetingthecontinent’schallenges.

Theprivatesectoris awellspringofinitiativesand ageneratorofwealth for Africa. New innovation ecosystems are giving tech start-ups the opportunitytogrowandbecomemorestructuredastheydevelopinclusive digital services that meet the needs of the population. Their solutions facilitateaccesstoessentialservices,helpovercometheinfrastructure deficitandcontributetothedevelopmentofsustainablecitiesforthe benefitofall.However,thelackofadequatefinancingremainsoneofthe mainobstaclestothegrowthandexpansionofstart-ups,micro,smalland medium-sizedenterprises(MSMEs).

Choose Africa,theFrenchinitiativefor Africanentrepreneurs

To supportandacceleratethegrowthofAfrica’sentrepreneurialecosystem, ProparcoandtheAFDGrouphavedevelopedthe Choose Africa initiative. Since2018, atotalof 3billioneuroshasbeencommittedtomorethan 34000businessesandseveralhundredthousandmicro-enterprises. Some250localpartners,rangingfromincubatorsandinvestmentfunds tolocalbanksandmicrofinanceinstitutions,arecurrentlycontributingto thesuccessofthisinitiative.

Unpartenariatinternational :l’Alliancepourl’entrepreneuriaten Afrique(AforE)

InkeepingwiththespiritofChooseAfrica,the Alliancefor Entrepreneurshipin Africa (AforE)waslaunchedin2022by agroupof African,European,multilateralandbilateralinstitutions,ofwhichProparco is afoundingmember.Theaimofthisinternationalinitiativeistopooland channeltechnicalandfinancialresourcesfromitsmemberstobolsterthe developmentandsuccessofSMEs,andespeciallywomen-andyouthownedbusinesses.

sectordynamicsandperformancearethemaindriversofgrowthin Africa.Proparco

Local partnersand apresence ofover45yearsmeans we can understandandrespondtoour clients’needs.Giventhevery particularinternational context, 2023 will requireadaptability and responsivenesssothat we can playanactiveroleinsupporting thereal Africaneconomy.”

Françoise Lombard, CEOof Proparco

interest

olloréfinally gotthenodfromthe French regulatorin lateNovember forthe sale ofits$5.7bnportsbusinessinAfricato MSC,theItalian-Swissshippingglobal leader.Thenegotiations forthepurchase of BolloréAfrica Logisticscameat atime whenthe logisticscardshave beenshuffled by the Covid-19crisisandthesignificant capitalgainsmadebythegiantsinthesector.Itisup toAfricatotakeadvantageofthis.

Eventhoughtheinternationalportgroups Bolloré andMaerskarethe currentheavyweights,theystillonly have asmallpresenceinAfrica’s containerterminals, whicharedominated by afew selectoperators(seemap) Africahas longbeenthehuntinggroundof Bolloré. Moreoftenthannot,B olloréhas wonbidsinassociationwithAPM Terminals,theportsubsidiaryof Denmark’s Maersk.A series ofscandals,including onethatbroughtattentionfrom Frenchprosecutors, hasperhapscooled Bollore’sAfricanardour.

Shippingcompanies,withtheirpocketsfullthanks tothesurge infreightratessincethebeginningof2021, arelookingto gettheirhandson variouslinksinthe transportchain.Severalmaritimetransportgiantshave launched‘verticalintegration’drives worthhundreds ofmillionsof dollarsin abid tobettercoversupply linesacrossair,sea andland.

Sealin ks mu lt iply am id investor

Financedbyseveralpartnersanddevelopmentfinanceinstitutions –includingProparco, subsidiaryoftheAFDGroup focusedonprivatesectordevelopment–,the ARAF fund targets theissuesof foodsecurityandclimatechange.Itinvests in start-upsofferinginnovative solutions to improve the conditionsandclimateresilienceofsmallholder farmersinEast andWestAfrica.

TamerEl-Raghy’sass essmen ti sc le ar.“ Clima te changeiswreakinghavo c here,”warnsf ro mN airobithe manageroftheequityfundARAF

(Acumen Re silientAgriculture Fund)whichoperatesinseveral African countriesaffectedbyclimatechange.Intensefloods followedbylongperiodsofdrought whichdegradecultivatedareas… “Thesedisruptions weighespecially onthemostvulnerable– women, children –andsmall-scalefarmers whohavevery few means to protect andboosttheircrops.”T hishigh exposuretotheseclimateevents consequentlymakestheperformanceoftheagriculturesector in Kenya– and everywhereelsein Sub-SaharanAfrica–highly unstable,pointsoutthis expertwho

graduatedfromuni vers ities in CairoandNewYork. “Indeed, over half of thepeoplelivinginpovertyare smallholderfarmers.Yet theyprovide80% of the food consumedin the region ”

30%OF BENEFICIARIESLIVE BELOW THEPOVERTY LINE

Toa ddres st hi ss ituation , theARAF fund,which was launchedin2020byAcumen Capital-Partners–a subsidiary of Acumen, anorganizationspecializedinsupportingsocialenterprisesinAfrica–,invests in local start-upsofferinginnovativesolutions to smallholder farmers.The objectiveistobuild anecosystem thatwillgivefarmersinEastand West Africathemeans to increase theirincomesandimprove their

living conditionsandresilience to climate change “Wetargetthe mostvulnerablefarmers.30%live below thepovertyline”,saysTamer El-Raghy. ARAFissupportedby theGreenClimateFundand isfinancedwith$58millionfromseveralpartnersanddevelopment finan ce institutions,includin g Proparco whichtook a$5million stakein2021,throughFISEA+,the AFDGroup’sfacility implemented byProparco undertheChoose Africainitiative.Overthe next 4 years,thefundaims to safeguard some1,200jobsandindirectly support atotalof 2millionsmallholder farmers.(Seethe reporton ARAFfundinProparco’s Private Sectoran dD eve lo pment#38 magazinehttp://bit.ly/3VLp0M9)

Tamer El-Raghy CEO ARAF Fund

Strengtheningtheclimateresilienceofsmallholder farmersinAfrica

Thetemptat ions of th ird-termism

se le ction feve rs we eps the continentnext year,manyleadersareattemptingtorunfor a thirdterm, de spitetheircountries’two -termconstitutions. Presidentialtermlimits,which thoseinpowe rm ay seekto argueareu nneccesary,were designe dtominimiseabuseofoffice, open up governmentstoinnovation,andcreate a more evenplayingfieldwhererepresentationis key.

As manyAfricancountries fought hard for their democracies,the dangerofterms turninginto dictatorshipsisa very real ongthepeoplewhocamtheirvoicestobeheard s isnotthefirsttimepresave manipulated constiintheir favour.In2021, anP resident KaisSaied edthecountry’s constitud in Guinea, Côted’Ivoire, andUganda,constitutions enrewrittentoresetthe sidentialtermlimits.

turning into di concern am paign for But thi idents h tutions Tunisi abolish tion, an Rwanda have be pre ‘

Unconstitutional’

P re si de nt Fa ustinA rc hang eT ouadér a i nt he Ce nt ra lA frican Republicisattempting topursuethesame tacti c. In Se p tembe r, CA R’sConstitutional Co urtrul ed that th e incumbent’sattempts tochangetermlimits through acommission forconstitutionalreform were “unconstitutional”,and warned Touadéraagainstit.

The President,now 65,was ele cte dfollow ing ac ivil wa r, buthis re electionin

2020sparked violenceinthecountry.His followersstormedthecourtsbeforetheywere stoppe dbyUNpeacekeepers.Touadéra’s relationshipwiththeMoscow-linked Wagner mercenaries maygivehimthe edge against hisopponentsasthisplays out.

Sallwon’tbackdown

InSenegal, PresidentMackySall(picture d) isalsoattemptingto go fo ra thirdterm. Changestothecountry’sconstitutionin2016 shortene dp re side ntialtermsfromseve n tofiveyears,whichhisallies argueallows himtorun.Thecountryhasbeenstaunchly anti-termlimitsinthepast,recentlyblockingefforts by theEconomicCommunityof WestAfricanStatestoreviseitsDemocracy Protocoltolimitpresidentialtermstotwo in allmember state s.

In re sponse,o ppositionc andidate sa re coordinatingtoforman alliancein anattempt to blockthe changes that wouldallow Sall,thecurrentheadoftheAfricanUnion, tostandin2024. Hehas face dopposition fromallsides, includingfrom formerprime ministerAminata Touré, whoisstrongly againstthe move.

President WilliamRuto’s coalition,the Unite dDemocraticAlliance (UDA)hasalso mooted apossible plantoremove presidentialtermslimitsinKenya andimposean agelimitof75onpresidents.Ifitbecamea reality, thisnewsystemwouldallow Rutoto runanotherthree time s, effe ctivelywiping outhiscompetitor RailaOdinga.Despite thechaosthatthis ide ah asstirred up,i t appearsRutohimselfisnotinterested.He asked theUDA tostop “pushing forselfish andself-serving legislationlikechanging the Constitutiontoremove term limits”.

Greener grass

Manysocial-mediaplatformsin Africafeature vide ostempting bright yo ungAfricanstotake theirtalentelsewhereandbenefit fromtheirgifts.Butthe realityis altogetherdifferent.In theUK, the RoyalCollegeofNurseshas takentothepicketlinesforthe firsttime,citing long working hours withvirtuallynobenefits and verylittlepay.

ManyAfricanhealthcareworkers were scoutedtowork forthe UK'sN ationalHealthService, withthepromiseof abetterlife. Some13,000healthcareworkers arrived fromNigeriain2022alone. Many ofthem now complainof burnoutand depressiondueto poormanagementand alackof mentalhealthservices. Willthese saviourscontinuetobeneglected forthesakeofproppingupthe crippled NHS?

ISMY*COUNTRYHEADING INTHERIGHTDIRECTION?

Wrongdirection

Rightdirection

Tw ilight of theBlueHelmets

Watch formoresignsofthetwilightofinternational peacekeepingmissions in 2023.Thepoliticalwillbehind thebiginternationalmissionsisebbingonallsides. In theirstead, regionalandbilateralbodies aresettingup newsecurityarrangments.

Thestarkestchange isinMali,wheretheUN’s MINUSMA force, a$1.26bn ayearoperation,is losingsomeofits biggestcontributors –G ermany, Britain,Irelandand France.Until recently,FrancechampionedtheUNmission.

Knownasthemostdangerousmissioninthe world, MINUSMA’s problemshave multiplied sincethecolonels seized powerinMaliin2021,citingthe failureofthe authoritiestocombatthe wave ofjihadistattacks. The newjuntahasalsocriticisedthe MINUSMAoperations and restricted its operations, preferring to work with Russia’sWagnerGroup,closetotheKremlin.

Inthe CentralAfrican Republic, President FaustinArchangeTouadérahasalso recruitedWagnermercenaries, andsignedabilateralpeacekeeping dealwith President Paul Kagameof Rwanda,distancingtheUN’s operations.

IntheDRC, theEastAfrican Community(EAC)’sintervention force, ledbyKenya andlaunchedinNovember tocountertheM23militia’s attacksinthenorth-east, is thelatestbidbyaregiontotaketheinitiative.Likehis predecessor, DRCPresident Félix Tshisekedihadpromisedvotersthathe wouldwind downtheUNmission. TheEACmissioncantakeonsomeoftheUN’s former tasks butwillstruggletoraisethefinance

Stillmoreproblematic willbeaninternationalor regional missiontomonitorthetrucebetweenEthiopia’s federal governmentandthe Tigray leadership.Yet organising themissionisthetoppriorityiftheagreementistobe implementedand leadtosustainablepeace

Kenyan troopsare deployingto theDRCas partofa newregional force

T ON YK ARUMBA/AFP

Ourg uide to themajor events happen ingin2023

JANUARY

WorldEconomicForum

16-20JanuaryinDavos, Switzerland

JUNE

AFRICACEOFORUM

5-6JuneinAbidjan,Côted’Ivoire

AFRICAENERGYFORUM

20-23JuneinNairobi,Kenya

FEBRUARY MININGINDABA

6-9FebruaryinCape Town, SouthAfrica

AUANNUALSUMMIT inAddisAbaba,Ethiopia

PRESIDENTIALELECTION

25FebruaryinNigeria

MARCH

AFRICAENERGYINDABA, AFRICAGASFORUM

7-9MarchinCape Town, SouthAfrica

APRIL

INTERMODALAFRICA

18-20AprilinDurban, SouthAfrica

JULY

GENERALELECTION

Zimbabwe

AUGUST

AFRICASINGAPORE BUSINESSFORUM

Singapore

SEPTEMBER

UNGENERALASSEMBLY

12SeptinNew York,USA

GENERALELECTION

Gabon

OCTOBER

AFRICAOILWEEK

9-13OctoberinCape Town, SouthAfrica

NOVEMBER

AFRICACOMAFRICATECH

FESTIVAL

14-16NovemberinCape Town, SouthAfrica

IATF2023

21-27NovemberinAbidjan, Côted’Ivoire

COP28

30November –12December

inDubai,UAE

DECEMBER

GENERALELECTION

DemocraticRepublicofCongo

MAY ENLITAFRICA

16-18MayinCape Town, SouthAfrica

AfDBANNUALMEETING

22-26MayinSharmEl-Sheikh, Egypt

AFRICANINSURANCE ORGANISATIONANNUAL MEETING

27-30MayinAlgiers,Algeria

THEAFRICACEOFORUM

5-6JuneinAbidjan,Côted’Ivoire

AftertwoyearsabsentfromreallifecalendarsduetotheCovid-19 pandemic,the2022editionofTheAfricaCEOForummarkeda successfulreturntoformforJeuneAfriqueMediaGroup(publisher of TheAfricaReport).The2023conferencebringstogethertop businessleadersandinvestorsfromthecontinentandbeyond,for twodaysofnetworkingandseminarsinAbidjan.

HILAIRE DJEDJE/ACF

Africain2023

SOUTHERN AFRICA

EAST AFRICA

94 WEST AFRICA

CENTR AL AFRICA 100

NORTH AFRICA

Aswetakestockoftheyearthatwas, ourwritershavelookedaheadtowhat iscomingdownthepike:elections inmajoreconomieslikeNigeriaand theDRC,heroeswhoareleading byexample,energydeals,and fast-changingregionalalliances.

CountryReportEditors

Jaysim Hanspal and Nicholas Norbro ok

CountryReportContributors

Sherif Tarek Abouzid, Dami Ajayi, Eniola Akinkuotu, Anne -Marie Bissada,Musinguzi Blanshe, Franck Foute, Jaysim Hanspal, Fred Harter, Nicholas Norbrook, Jonas Nyabor, Carien duPlessis, Kanika Saigal, PatrickSmith, David Whitehouse

Whatto watchin 2023

By DAVIDWHITEHOUSE

Theonesafebetontheenergy transitiontodayisthatitwill unfoldaccordingtoAfrican rather than Westernpriorities.Theonly countryonthecontinentthat makes asignificantcontributionto globalcarbonemissionsisSouth Africa.Thestartofoperations atthecountry ’s firstcommercial liquefied naturalgas(LNG)plantat Virginiain Free StateinSeptember marksastep forwardindiversifyingthecountry ’s energysources.

RenergenistheheliumandLNG producerbehindthe VirginiaGas Project.ItsCEO,StefanoMarani, says thatenvironmental,social and governance(ESG) factorsare becomingincreasinglyimportant inSouthAfrica.Thecountryhas about400,000heavy- dutytrucks.

Fleet ownersknowthat relying ondieselriskscostingthem marketshare, Maranisays.The conversionofthecountry ’s truck fleettoliquefied naturalgas(LNG) ismaking“very goodprogress,” he adds.Electricbatteries powerful enoughtobeused by heavytrucks onSouthAfricanterrainareat leasta decade away.“LNGisthe only real solutionfroman ESG angle,”hesays

A he avy vehicle using LNG is about25%cheapertorunthan

a diesel vehicle, accordingto re search by Hannam &Partners inve stment bank. LNGtrucks are 8%more fuel-efficient, and carbon emissionsarereduce dby around30%, the re searchsays. Hannam estimates that about 50,000trucks could convertto LNG over thenext10 ye ars.

Renergen trades ontheSouth Africanand Australianstock markets. Phaseone LNGcapacity atthe Virginiaplant is 2,700 gigajoules (GJ)perday, risingto 24,000GJinphasetwo, whichis scheduled for 2025 The increase d production willbeuse d toserve the truckmarket, Maranisays

Theproject also produce s helium,and first-phase helium capacityof350kg perday will rise to 5,000kg inthesecondphase. Helium isuse d in nuclear power stationsand for fibre optics

Noshortageoffunders

TheUSInternational Development Finance Corporation hassigned a retainerletterunder whichitwill evaluatemaking a loanof up to$500mtofund the project’s secondphase Marani wantsto raise $250min further debtandsays that fundershave offered himasmuchas $700m.

Blue Gem ResearchinSouth Africasays inanotethatthetotal

SIMONDA WSON/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY

Thefutureofmining includesLNGtrucks,which arecheaperandcleaner

AcceleratingactivityacrossAfrica’s extractiveslandscapein2023willshow whether,andhow,thecontinent’s resourcescancontributetoaninclusive energytransition

capital expenditurebill forphase twoislikelytobeabout$1bn.The large pool of debtfundersinterestedinphasetwogives Renergen thetimeandflexibilitytofindthe bestsourcesofequityinvestment, Blue Gemsays.

Pollutionfromdie sel-powere d trucksincludes carcinogenicsubstance s, which arereduce dbyup to90% by theuseofLNG,Marani says.Fromafiscalperspective, this canbe a“majorboon”in termsofsavingsonhealthcosts. Forpolicymakers,promoting LNGuseinsteadofdieselisan “absoluteno-brainer.”

One wayforwardwouldbefor governmentstoprovide incentives fororiginal equipmentmanufacturersto developall-LNGtrucks. Morefillingstationsarealso needed to supporttheshiftto LNG,Maranisays.Theprocessof gettingtruckstoswitchtoLNGin SouthAfricaiscurrentlycompletely dependenton Renergen, Marani explains.Moremarket entrantsindifferentpartsofthe country wouldmakeLNG amore practicalandvisibleoptionand increaseitsuse.“Competition downstreamwillbenefitour business,” Maranisays.

Guinea’slargestgoldmine

The fact thatsolar batterie sare not yetpowerfulenoughmeans thatdieselandhe avyfuels continueto dominatein We st Africa,says AndrewPardey, managingdirectorof Predictive Discovery,whichtrades onthe Australianstock exchangeand countsBlackRock amongits inve stors.“Everysecondtruckis adie selorhe avy-fueltruck,” he says. “Solaronly workswhenthe sunshine s.”

Thecompanyneedstogenerate its ownpowerforits gold-mining projectatBankanin Guinea.The mostlikelysolutionwillbe acombinationofdieselandheavyfuels,

withsome solar power, Pardey says.Thecompanyplanstosubmit ascopingstudyto Guinea’sgovernment by theendof2023,which wouldthenenableittoapply fora miningpermit.

Pardey is aformerCEOof Centamin,whichoperatesEgypt’s only gold mine.TheBankan projectlies intheSiguiriBasin,the least-explored regioninthe West AfricanBirimiangreenstonebelt. Once developed,Bankanwillbe Guinea’slargest gold mine,andthe potential forfurtherdiscoveries meansitcouldbecomeoneofthe largestin WestAfrica, Pardey says.

Thecourageto‘failfast’ Bankan’s current re sourceof4.2m ounces re sts largely onopenpits, andundergrounddrilling islikely toincrease the estimate,Pardey says.The next re source estimate fromBankanis dueinlateJanuary or early February.G oldmining, Pardey argue s, canimprove GDP and livelihoodsin Guinea,while generating value forshareholders Africahasan estimate d30%of the world’smineral re serves,yet manyjurisdictions remainunderexplored.Theglobalenergy transitionhas le dtoincrease dneed forcopper, lithium,graphite and cobalt.Thathas le dtoa plethora ofjuniorminersseekingfinance forAfricanproje ctdevelopment.

The trend overthepast20 ye arshasbeenformining majors tooutsourcerisky exploration activitytojuniorminers,which incre ase sthealreadyconsiderablerisksforinve stors,saysTim Livesey,CEOofOrioleRe sources, agoldexploreroperating in Cameroon.Livesey isoptimistic about gold production prospe cts inthecountry,callingita “brand newfrontier ”. Heis frank about therisksfacingsmaller exploration companie s, with the sector having be come “a lotmore precarious”.

EXTRACTIVE COMMODITYPRICES: THEBIGFOUR

Operatorsneed tohave the courage to “fail fast”, and get outof a licence ifit won’t work “There are too many junior exploration projectsthatwill never reallymake it,but they keep spending” because it’s an easier option thanbiting the bullet, Livesey says. Investors, inturn, need tounderstandjurisdictionand geology, as wellas having confidencein the team doingthe exploration:“It’s easy to get caughtupin the hypeand lose a lot ofmoney. ‘Do your own research’ is very real in the explorationspace.”

Matureoilfields

Africancountries are pushing aheadwith fossil-fuel exploration evenas many inthe West are demandinga shifttonew energy sources. According to GlobalData,about 70 crude and natural-gasprojectswillstart operatinginsub-SaharanAfrica by 2025 The projectswilladd about 2.3m barrelsperdayof crude andcondensate production,and 9.6bn cubic feet perday ofgas, the research says.

It’s crucialtoconsider the “social context of energytransition”, says Paul McDade, CEOofAfentra, whichisin the process of buying

oilproductionand exploration assetsoffshore Angola.Though the Westispushing for energy transition, Africahas not yethad thechance toindustrialise, he points out.

“The past is important,” inthe sense thathistorical fossil fuels were part of the process of raising living standards inthe West, but notinAfrica,McDade says. “Africa needs hydrocarbons. There’sa big social impactifAfrica moves away tooquickly.”

Afentra trades on London’s Alternative InvestmentMarket (AIM).Thecompany ispurchasingassetsoffshore Angolafrom state- owned oilandgascompany Sonangoland Croatia’s INA.

McDade sees scopetocreate shareholder valuethrough buying mature oil fieldsthatthemajors don’t wantto hold.He plansto workwith Sonangol to increase recovery from Block3/05inthe Lower CongoBasin,whichhas

beeninproduction since the1980s. Many oilassetsintheNorth Sea offshore theUKhave changed handsin the same way recently, andMcDade, a formerCEOof Tullow Oil,says a similar pattern can developoffshore WestAfrica, if sufficientcapital isprovided.

McDade sees a shift in Western attitudes as a result ofthe war between Russiaand Ukraine, with energy-security issues climbingthe agendaalongside climate change. Someinstitutionsandpension fundsthathadbeenmoving money outof fossil fuels on ESG grounds have paused duetothe outperformanceofthe resources sector, hesays.There’s nowa renewed “opennesstoinvesting in hydrocarbons”.

That, McDade argues,has been accompanied by ashift inpolitical emphasis The COP27 in Egypt, hesays, had a “pragmatic” tone, in contrastwiththe“idealistic” approach atthe COP26 inGlasgow “Those who caused and benefited from theemissionsneed tocontributemore.”

TransparencyinAngola

newcrudeandnatural-gasprojectswill startoperatinginsub-SaharanAfricaby 2025,accordingtoGlobalData

Electricbusesfor studentsinAbidjan

Some would arguethatseeking social justice for Africaiswhere the real idealismlies. The history ofthe oil andgasindustryin West Africastretches back to the 1950s, yet most people inNigeria and Angola have notbenefited. McDade says that thetwo countries are “relatively youngandtheir politics are still developing”.

InAngola,at least, McDade sees grounds for hopethat resources can bebetterused infuture. The country ’s regulatory environment has improvedsincehisprevious experiencethere in the early 2000s Inthepast, he recalls,state oil company Sonangoleffectively used to regulate itself. Afentra’s purchaseofAngolanassetshas so far been“verytransparent and well-governed”.

SIAKAMBOU/AFP

PERENCO, PARTNERINGTHEDRC FORMORETHAN20YEARS

PerencoisproudtosupporttheDRC inthesustainabledevelopmentofits oilandgas resourcesand,over thepasttwodecades,tohavemade animportanteconomicandsocial contributiontothecountry.

ARESPONSIBLEAPPROACH FORTHELONGTERM

Since2000,Perencohasinvestedheavilyinnew wellsanddevelopedinnovativesolutionstomaintain productionlevelsandslowthenaturaldeclineofthe reservoirs.

ThisstrategydemonstratesthedeeptechnicalknowhowandingenuityofPerenco’steams. Today,Perencocontinuestoinvestingas recoveryin theDRC,withgasflarereductionprojectsandLPG production.

DEVELOPINGSKILLSANDEMPOWERING COMMUNITIES

Perencoactivelysupports awiderangeofcommunity programsineducation,health,agroforestryand environmentalprotection,aswellashelpingtosupply waterandelectricitytotheinhabitantsofMuanda.

Theseactionsformpartof asustainabilitystrategyfor thecommunities:sustainableprojects,withpositiveand lastingbenefits.

www.perenco.com

SUPPORTINGTHREEORPHANAGES

Aspartofitssocialactionplan,Perencoisproudto beactivelyassistinglocalorphanages,supporting 121childrenacrossthreehomesinMuanda.Perenco providesassistancewithfood,healthcare,infrastructure maintenance,includingthewaterandelectricitysupply, andalsoeducation,whichextendstofinancialsupport forchildrentogoontostudyatuniversity

IMPORTANTSUPPORTFOREDUCATION

Perencofinancesmorethan ahundredhighereducationscholarshipsforchildrenfromvillagesclosetoits operations.Thecompanyalsoprovideseducational equipmentforuniversitiesandengineeringschoolsin theDRC.

Perencoisinvolvedintheconstructionandupkeepof schoolbuildings,thedonationoffurniture,andschool equipmentincludingtextbooksforthestudentsof Muanda.

Foundedthirty years ago, Perenco isanindependenthydrocarbonproducerinvolvedin the entirelifecycleofprojects, from exploration to decommissioning.Gross productionisover475,000 BOE ofoilandgasperday.Thegroup’sstrength liesin thetechnical ingenuityand versatility ofits 6,800employees,whodeliver safe andenvironmentallyaware solutions to oilandgas fieldsaround the world. By enhancinganddevelopinglocal resources,Perenco isproud to support economicgrowthand social development whereveritworks. Perenco operatesin15partner countries and isbasedin the United Kingdom.

Tr istan Pascall

by DAVIDWHITEHOUSE

FirstQuantum Minerals, Zambia’s largestcopperproducer, will apply for new explorationlicences latein 2022 or earlyin2023, saysTristan Pascall,who took over asCEOin May. Pascall says that President Hakainde Hichilemahascaused “a realturnaroundinthecountry”.

Hichilema,elected presidentin August2021, wants to raise copper production to 3mtonnesa year, fromabout800,000tn a year in 2021. Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe said in Octoberheplanstolimitthe licencesa company canhold tofive, topreventspeculative holdings.

FirstQuantum’s 2021copper outputof 816,000tn made it the world’s sixth-largest copper producer In May, the company announced plans fora $1.25bn expansionofits Kansanshimine inZambia,whichproduces more copperthanany other African mine. Thecompany also operates theSentinelopen-pitcoppermine, 150km west of Solwezi,inNorth Westernprovince.

FirstQuantum’s Enterprisenickel sulphidedeposit is12kmnorth-west oftheSentinelmine, allowing for existinginfrastructure tobeshared. Pascallsays theEnterpriseproject will become Africa’s largestnickel mine andpotentiallymake the company oneofthe world’s top 10nickelproducers. Firstore at Enterpriseis targetedearly in2023, with a potential forannualproductionof over 30,000tonnes.

Windowofopportunity

A slowing global economy means theshort-term outlook for copper prices is muted. But medium-term global prospectsare “solid”due to theenergytransition,whichwill account for 50%ofglobal copper demandgrowth overthe nextfive years, according to Fitchanalysts The world needs more copper for wind power, andtohelp improve the range and reliability ofAfrican nationalgrids. It’s hard to find substitutes,butthe globaldiscovery rateisslowing down, Pascallsays

Zambiahas a “window of opportunity ”, but stillneeds to

overcomeits logisticschallenges, Pascallsays. The railway network is “undermaintained”, andtrucks from thecompany’s Zambianoperations take abouttwo weeks to reach portsatRichardsBay inSouth Africa, WalvisBay inNamibiaand Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam.

There is a global need for two or three Sentinel-size mines coming onstream every yeartomeet demand, Pascallsays Buthigher regulatoryandcompliance requirementsinareas suchas biodiversity – which Pascall welcomes– are contributingtothe factthat it now takes an average of16 yearsto get a new mine built. Inthe yearsafter 2025, it’s hard tosee where thenew mines willcomefrom,headds

Copper recycling willneed to increaseinfuture. Current rates are between20% and40% Pascall notes that copperisnotpartofthe USInflation Reduction Act, which targets a40% reductioninUS carbonemissions by 2030 versus 2005 levels The US and Europe are onlynow “starting to wake up” totheneed toensure supplyof mineralssuch as copper, nickel, tantalum and rare earths. The global energy transitiontherefore gives Zambia a uniquechance tousecopperandnickeltodrive national economic development.

‘T here’s been a real turnaround in the country’

The CEOofFirstQuantumMinerals saystheCanadian minerplanstorestartexplorationfor copperandnickel inZambiaandrampupexistingprojects

FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS

UNBE ATABLE COMBINATION

SPEEDINTHEAIRAND FAST ERTURNAROUNDS.

Reaching amaximumcruisespeedofMach 0.80, carrying 26t, andoperating at aceilingof36,000ft, the twinturbofan-poweredC-390Millennium delivers outstandingtacticalperformancewith strategiceffect.Forthecrew,new innovations includingthefullyautomatedcargo handlingand aerial systemsthatreduce workload andimprove productivity. Alreadyproveninservicewiththe BrazilianAir Forceand,withcontracts signed by the PortugueseandHungarianAir Forces, themulti-mission C-390takesmobility to thenext leveleveninthemostchallenging environments.

#C390UnbeatableCombination embraerds.com

Photographic record madeduringtheunpavedrunway testcampaign.

C-390 MILLENNIUM

WARMGLOW

Uranium mining with a cr ypto tw ist

MadisonisbettingthatthecryptowealthycanbeenticedintoinvestingintoNamibian uraniumexplorationandminingintheirfavouritecurrency

By DAVIDWHITHOUSE

Canada-listed MadisonMetals has reacheda first-of-its-kind agreement to secure funding for itsuraniumprojectsinNamibia throughthesale ofnon-fungible tokens(NFTs),Duane Parnham, executive chairmanandCEO, tells

The Africa Report Thecompany has reacheda forward-sales agreementwithblockchain operator Lux Partnersto deliver upto20mpounds ofU308 uranium oxide fromMadison’s projects in Namibia. Fulfilmentofthe delivery will backthe NFTs, and sales of thetokenswill generatecash for corporateuse.

Theagreementwill allow Madison “to access fundingat a premium” to analysts’ valuationsof thecompany, and has thepotential to “revolutionisethefundingof juniorminers”, Parnham says.

Madisonshares were approved for tradingon the OTCQB venture marketintheUSinlateSeptember. Lux, a fintech domiciled intheIsle

ofMan, willinitiallytokenise 7.65m poundsofU3O8that Madisonhas contributed tothepartnership. The plan is for theNFTs tobecreated on LuxNetworkandmade available on everymajorblockchain.

Greatertransparency

Uranium does not trade onanopen marketlike other commodities, but prices are negotiated directly. That meansNFTs cancreategreater markettransparency, Parnhamsays. “Otherswill wanttocomeintothe ecosystem.”

Namibiaholds the fifth-largest totaluranium resources inthe world and currentlysupplies about 10%of world demand. Prices have increased this year amid theenergycrisistriggered by the

2.6%

Russia-Ukraine war. Accordingto Cameco, uranium jumped to$51per poundat the endof Augustfrom $43atthe startof2022

InSeptember, Madison agreed tobuy a 23%interest in mining licence (ML)121 inNamibia’s Erongo uraniumprovince, where thecompany alreadyholdsrightsto the(EPL)7011 prospectinglicence

Ithasalsosigneda binding letterof intentwith localcompany Otjiwa Miningand Prospectingtobuyan 85%interest intwo furtherprospectinglicenses.

The NFT financewillhelp Madison to keepdrillingand advance itsprojects towards production,andgive thecompany scopetostart purchasing uraniumitself, Parnham says Theagreementwill “change the businessof mining and accessing capital,” he is convinced.

Thecompany isapplying for furtherexplorationlicencesin Namibia,says Parnham,who has worked in the country for more than 20 years.

Averageannualgrowthofglobalnuclear generationcapacityto2040,according tothe WorldNuclearAssociation.

EAST AFRICA’S GROU NDHOG DAY

YANNGWET

Cameroon-bornjournalistbasedinKigali,authorof Vousavezditretour? (EditionsPrésenceAfricaine,2022), exploringexperiencesofreturningtothecontinent

4July1994.Rwandan PatrioticFront(RPF) militaryforces, ledbyPaul Kagame,seize Rwanda’s capitalKigali.The Rwandanarmy, whichhadjustcommittedgenocide against the Tutsi,was defeated. Apanicked Rwandan population,includingtheHutu Interahamwe militia, wentinto exile. Allthese lovelypeople settled inhugeUNcampsinGoma,DRC Fed,housedandwhitewashedbytheinternationalcommunity,the genocidaires continuedtosow deathupon Rwandafrom Goma. Tiredofglobalindifference,theRPF armycrossedtheborderin1996 toeradicate these forces,who were later reunitedunderthe Forces DémocratiquesdeLibérationdu Rwanda (FDLR)banner, startingthefirst Congowar Itsspectrecontinuestohaunt relationsbetweentheDRCand Rwanda morethan 25 yearslater.Reports frominternationalorganisations pointtoanalliancebetweenthe

Congolesearmy(Forces Armées dela RépublicDémocratique duCongo;FARDC)andthe FDLRaspartofthe FARDC’s operationsagainsttheM23rebels (themselves accused of receiving support fromKigali).

Kagame’s provocative30November remarksuggestingDRCPresident Tshisekedi

wasinstrumentalisingthe Rwandanissuein theupcomingpresidentialcampaign was highlightedbythemedia,whomissedthe rest ofhisspeech(“PeaceinEastern Congomeans peace forus”,etc.)and Kagame’sallusionto theongoing existentialthreattheFDLRposes.

Butthemessage wasclear:ifheneeded to (ashedid26years ago), Kagame woulduse wartoimposepeace.Thepointofno return seemedstrangelyclose.

Wa sitc ro sse dafew da ys later by Tshisekedi,whotoldcivilsociety leaders“it isthe Rwandan regime,headedbyKagame, thatistheenemyofCongo”,addingthat Rwandans were notenemies,but“brothers whoneed oursolidaritytoridusandAfrica ofthiskindofbackwardleadership”?

The1996 warled to the overthrow of Zaire (nowDRC)’sMobutuSeseSekoandtheinstallationofJoseph-DésiréKabila, aRwandanally inthe waragainstthe genocidaires andtheir institutionalallies.Butthehoneymoonwith Kabila wasshort-lived.Hewantedtoshakeoff the Rwandans’cumbersometutelage, which Rwanda wouldnotaccept.Lackingthemilitary capacitytoimposehiswill, Kabilasetup avast militarycoalitionwithAngola,Zimbabwe and armedmilitias,includingtheinfamousFDLR TheSecondCongoWar beganin1998and involved at leastnineAfricancountries and dozensofarmedgroups,allengaged inthe wholesaleplunderingofCongo’sresources.

The earlyclose relationshipbetweenpresidents TshisekediandKagame saw multiple goodwill gestures andcooperationagreements. Again,thehoneymoon wasshort-lived.Again, the breakwith Rwanda onthe Congoleseside seemstohave takenthe formof an alliance withthe remainsoftheFDLR.Acoalition again hasbootson Congolesesoil.Thistime it’s anEast African Communityinitiativeto “imposepeace”–toquoteKenyanpresident Ruto, whosecountryisthelargestcontributor ofmentothe regionalforce.Kenya hasbecome amajor economicplayerintheDRC. Ishistory repeatingitself?