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Rosa Whitaker, Tony Blair, and David Axelrod INTERNATIONAL EDITION
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SOUTH AFRICA Three divorces and an election
NIGERIA The Sanusi Legacy
EAST AFRICA Oil, gas & the new Great Game
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The new leaders behind Africa’s industrial renaissance
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ocal content – the phrase has rippled through Africa’s energy and mining sectors, gathering strength over the past decade. From workshops to conferences, from ministerial briefings to presidential speeches, African governments are devising frameworks that will hitch their domestic industries to the growth that foreign investment brings. Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Morocco, South Africa, Uganda, Gabon and Guinea have passed local content bills in recent years, often in the extractive industries. The Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act hastoughrequirementsongivinglocal companies priority in oil block licensingroundsandcompelsoilcompanies and service providers to hire Nigerians. Ghana’s local content law likewise gives local companies first preference in bidding rounds for oil blocks and requires a minimum 5% equity stake for Ghanaian firms – not including the government-owned Ghana National Petroleum Corporation – in every oil licence. The rationale is clear. After decades of natural resource flows out of African countries, economies remain locked into the lowest rung of economic development, with local companies unable to add value to raw commodities. The continent’s industrial fabric remains threadbare, and the growing number of young graduates will cause chaos if there are not enough jobs to fill. African Union Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma reminded African finance ministers in March that African countries have to “design a comprehensive industrial development framework […] to speed up and deepen value-addition of local production, linkages between
L The oil and gas sector is one of the pioneers in local content, and Nigeria leads the fray
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At last, African governments are encouraging the development of networks of small and capable local companies that can become a part of global supply chains and win government contracts
LOCAL CONTENT
the commodity sector and other economic sectors”. Guinea’s mines minister Kerfalla Yansané says: “We have been learning from our mistakes. Our mining companies were not integrated into the mainstream of our economy. Now we want them to be part of growth corridors. There should be a link between mining activities and the whole environment, meaning agriculture, services, transport, education and so on.” JOBS FIRST
For Jean-Louis Ekra, president of Afreximbank, this economic nationalist moment “is not just happening in Africa, because of the difficulty in job creation you see around the world. In Europe, whenever a company says it will move a factory abroad you have instant uproar from the government.” A panel of experts convened by Britain-based law firm Pinsent Masons earlier this year was unanimous: “Local content legislation [in Africa] is here to stay, and those companies that fail to recognise this evolving investment reality will quickly fall behind.” In places where governments have been working on this for some time, like Nigeria, there are real changes afoot. “One of the best testimonies to this is local participation in the annual CWC Nigeria Oil & Gas Conference,” says Fisoye Delano, senior vice-president of CAMAC International and previously managing director of the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company. “The number of Nigerian oilfield services providers has changed significantly, just as significantly as the number of indigenous exploration and production companies. Eighty-five percent of exhibitors in NOG 2014 were local service providers.” ●●●
(Source: TAR reader survey)
A MULTI-CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION Mostly sold through newsstand, The Africa Report offers a multi-channel distribution network to secure its target of influential and hard-to-target readership. On average per issue, newsstand account for 66% of the distribution, Airlines and Airport lounges for 12% and subscribers for around 7%; we also circulate 5% of our print-run through major events, 6% trough hotels and other selected venues, while 4% is free distribution to VIP decision makers (company MDs and CEOs and government officials).
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Africa in 2015 China down, Europe out, Africa digs deep
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UNMATCHED INTELLIGENCE, RIVETING READING. COUNTRY FOCUS Nigeria
53
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Mauritius
45
Children celebrate Nigeria’s independence, though the legacy still hangs heavy
TOURISM PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE IN THE ECONOMY WITH A DRIVE TOWARDS WOOING HIGH-NET-WORTH VISITORS
COUNTRY FOCUS HOLGER LEUE/CORBIS
Despite government hopes of Mauritius becoming a high-income country by the end of the decade, analysts fear the downturn in the key sugar and tourism industries, sparked by the European economic crisis, mean it will miss its 2020 target. Meanwhile, the financial sector remains under pressure due to concerns over the future of a crucial tax treaty
By Jana Marais in Port Louis
THE AFRIC A REPORT
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FINANCE SPECIAL
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MISSING THE SWEET SPOT T
Divide or conquer D
he year 2020 looms closer, with Mauritius’s stated ambition of becoming a high-income country by this date looking increasingly out of reach. As Mauritius transitions from an economy dependent almost exclusively on agriculture in the 1960s to one with strong textiles, finance and tourism sectors, it is still on course to be the richest non-resource-dependent country in Africa by 2025, according to estimates from local analysts. However, with doubts over the role Mauritius’s financial sector will play in India, ● ● ●
By Monica Mark in Lagos
THE AFRICA REPORT
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POLITICS
HISTORY | PEOPLE | POLITICS | ECONOMY | CULTURE
N° 58
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M A R C H 2 014
| DIPLOMACY
| BUSINESS
| OIL & GAS
| MINING
PAULO NOVAIS/EPA/MAXPPP
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Coal prices are down, but companies like Vale take a longer term, cyclical view
the commodity cycle is supposed to ensure that they lock in huge profits when global demand rises. Rather than a commoditycentric approach, the view they take is to look at whether their individual assets across the world – their mines and processing plants – continue to meet required performance thresholds. In this analysis, what matters more are things like tax and royalty rates, security and infrastructure. In taking the temperature of the continent’s mining sector, executives pay closest heed to its politics. INVESTOR-FRIENDLY
By Honoré Banda in Lusaka
rognosticators could be forgiven for taking a gloomy view of the mining sector. The global economy’s tentative recovery appears to be stalling. Chinese growth is slowing, Europe and Japan look headed for recession and the US faces an uncertain future without the stimulating effects of the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policy. Taken in sum, it makes for grim reading. Mining generates close to one third of the African continent’s gross domestic product, so if demand for natural resources falls, the negative effects will be wideTHE AFRICA REPORT
•
spread. Tax receipts will fall, government spending will be curbed and jobs will suffer. It could also spell the postponement of undeveloped mining projects that will no longer be profitable with lower mineral prices. That is at least how the conventional thinking goes. The reality is more nuanced. For one thing, the value of some minerals has improvedduringthepastfewmonths. While iron ore prices plummeted, dropping more than 40% since the start of the year and jeopardising a host of high-cost West African mines, prices for aluminium, zinc and nickel rose. Burundi is of inN° 66
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D E C E M B E R 2 014 - J A N UA R Y 2 015
teresttoinvestorsforitslargenickel reserves.Burundi’sMusongatiMiningisstartingpreliminaryworkson depositstherebutneedstoaddress the country’s weak transportation and electricity infrastructure. The consultants at EY argue that high energy prices and competition for water resources will be obstacles to greater mining growth in many African countries in 2015.
Iron ore prices plummeted by
40% during 2014
COPPER STILL COMPELS
Although copper prices fell around 8% between the end of 2013 and October 2014, the prospect of global supply shortfalls means many chief executives remain THE AFRICA REPORT
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N° 66
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MARCELO COELHO/VALE
A new land scape P
In 2010, The Africa Report began producing special issues and supplements that enhance a country’s unique potential, celebrate historical dates and promote the continent’s major events.
Not to be sold separately
DOSSIER MINING
The rise and rise of global commodity prices is over, but it’s not all gloom and doom in the mining sector. What we can expect in the coming year is a geographical shift in both the African countries offering the best investment environment and the global players looking to profit
SUPPLEMENTS
President José Eduardo dos Santos is using partnerships with China, Portugal and Brazil as the engine of Angola’s economic expansion
OUTLOOK is a supplement to THE AFRICA REPORT N°45
70
| AGRICULTURE
A global reach
The promise Nairobi looks to its region and across the Indian Ocean
•
outlook
at KENYA50 KENYA AT 50 is a supplement to THE AFRICA REPORT N°56
of a New East
own a rutted track in the neglected railway town of Zungeru in the Middle Belt lies a dilapidated building where a couple of British colonial governors drew up the frontiers of Africa’s most populous nation. With the stroke of a pen on 1 January 1914, what had formerly been the northern and southern protectorates became the single country of Nigeria. A century later, the abandoned house replete with history is for some a potent symbol of the current state of the
In the century since unity Nigeria has experimented with federalism in myriad forms. Today, as President Jonathan plans a national conference in the face of growing criticism, he fields demands ranging from restructuring and the division of states to autonomous control
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 14
In every issue of The Africa Report, the central section of the magazine is dedicated to a specific country, close-ups of performance and prospects in a high-growth African market.
committed to seeing through investments in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia. “The outlook for copper demand remains compelling as emerging economies transition to consumption-led growth,” said US-based Citibank in a recent report. Drilling down deeper, a host of other factors come into play. Major international mining companies like Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Vale and Glencore tend to pay little heed to short-term price volatility, even over a threeto four-year period. Instead, their strategy of investing throughout
One need only look at the contrast in investor sentiment in Côte d’Ivoire and South Africa. The West African country’s fledgling mining sector is dwarfed by South Africa, still one of the world’s largest precious metals producers. More exploration spending is heading in the direction of Côte d’Ivoire for its more favourable fiscal terms and a government that is seen, at least by company bosses, to encourage foreign investment in mining rather than raising the rents on it. Other countries with governments interested in attracting new investment, like Ethiopia, are host to more exploration efforts. The country has substantial reserves of potash, platinum and gold, and the government plans to triple revenue from the sector from its current level of $600m over the next decade. On the other hand, the country attracting the lion’s share of new spending on the continent is the DRC,longreputedforitscorruption and inefficiency. Its unparalleled store of riches, estimated to be at least twice as large as South Africa’s reserves, come with major political risks. Uncertainty lingers ahead of 2016’s presidential elections, while long-running tensions in the east andeventhecopper-miningheartlandofKatangacontinuetosimmer (see page 74). But the DRC’s copper mines, neglected under successive ● ● ●
DOSSIERS Also, in every issue, an in-depth portrait of one of the continent’s essential industries, its key players and success stories.
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