[sample] 2010 Lithium Battery Development by TrendForce

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

2010 Lithium Battery Development Company Profile and

Service Snapshot

2010Q2 -Duff

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Business Model & Scope • Industries covered –

DRAM, Flash – No. 1 Worldwide

–

LCD – Top-tier

–

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EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Our Research Category

Market Intelligence

(DRAM, Flash)

(LCD Panel)

(LED)

(PV,EV/Battery)

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

EnergyTrend Market Intelligent Service Silver Member Service- PV Standard Price: USD 3,000

EnergyTrend Market Intelligence Service

Silver Member Service- EV / Battery Standard Price: USD 3,000

Customized Report Service Above USD 12,000

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Silver Member Service- EV / Battery Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL)

Unit(Thousand)

Material

6000

Cell

5000

Pack

4000 3000

Quarterly Market Trend (PPT) 2000 xEVs Market Overview and Forecast Battery Market Overview and Forecast

1000 0

Energy Trend Web Promotion

2009 2010(F)2011(F)2012(F)2013(F)2014(F)2015(F)2016(F)2017(F)

News Release

HEV

PHEV

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Outline 1. The Lithium Battery Market Status –Consumer vs. Power Applications 2. Battery Product Breakdown –Cost Structures –Price Trend 3. Business Strategies –Supply Chain VS Demand Strategy 4. Market Drive Forces –Drive Factors –Products in Taiwan 5 October 2010| Page 6 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

1. The Lithium Battery Market Status –Consumer vs. Power Applications 2. Battery Product Breakdown –Cost Structures –Price Trend 3. Business Strategies –Supply Chain VS Demand Strategy 4. Market Drive Forces –Drive Factors –Products in Taiwan 5 October 2010| Page 7 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development Li Batteries Have Been Growing with Increasing demand of Consumer Applications

Ni-Cd: Due to pollution problems, the use of Ni-Cd batteries limits to the medical and military areas NiMH: Much use in automatic area, but less in consumer products LIB: Have been stably growing with the demand of consumer applications Source: EnergyTrend ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

5 October 2010| Page 8

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Consumption of Power Applications will Increase Speedily 16

Li Battery market develop

Market size (B US)

12.4

12 9.4

10 8

14.2

10.4

8.8

8.6

7.2

6 4

2.2

0.2

0 2005

2007

2009

consumer product

2011(F)

2013(F)

2015(F)

Power product

Consumer product: increases stably, including NB, mobile etc. Power product: rises dramatically in the PS, automatic markets due to increasing the energy conservation business Source: EnergyTrend 2010.07 5 October 2010| Page 9 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

HEV Still Goes for Years A variety of challenges affect the vehicle market, and so does xEVs. Battery demand depends on the mainstreamed vehicle types. Reducing price of Hybrid has more influences than providing subsidy policies. 2010

2015

2020

HEV (Parity) Vehicle type

Market penetrate

PEV (Charging Convenience) HEV: 1.5% PEV: 0%

HEV: 60% PEV: 5%

HEV: 80% PEV: 20%

Source: EnergyTrend Note: PEV includes a variety of rechargeable xEVs, mainly concentrates on PHEV and BEV 5 October 2010| Page 10 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Battery Industry Grows with xEVs (千輛)

With lower battery system technology of threshold, HEV will be the mainstream of xEXs

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000

1000 0

2009 2010(F)2011(F)2012(F)2013(F)2014(F)2015(F)2016(F)2017(F) HEV PHEV EV

Source: EnergyTrend 2010.07

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Li Batteries Take an Important Rule in the NB Battery Market

Mobile: use single cell; have low technical barrier; produce in China NB: use 6~12 cells, have consistent quality of cell; produce in Japan and Korea Source: EnergyTrend 2010.07 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

5 October 2010| Page 12

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Korean Battery Business Road Map Grows

pcs (Million)

major LIB supplier shipment 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Reasons for Rising Shipment of Korean Batteries  Human Resource: draw talented professional  Price: balance between price and quality  Marketing: increase the chance of adopting system plants by packaging

2002 Sanyo

2004 Sony

2006 SDI

2008 LGC

2010(E) Panasonic

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

1. The Lithium Battery Market Status –Consumer vs. Power Applications 2. Battery Product Breakdown –Cost Structures –Price Trend 3. Business Strategies –Supply Chain VS Demand Strategy 4. Market Drive Forces –Drive Factors –Products in Taiwan 5 October 2010| Page 14 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Reversed Market Trend Q3 Outlook- Doubt but Expect

battery pack demand status (2010) 12.4

pack shipment (Million)

14 12 10

8.2

6.2

6 4

3.5

9.3

9.8

6.4

4.5

6 5

6.8 5.5

2010Q2

2010Q3(E)

2010Q4(F)

2 0 2010Q1 Symplo

Dynapack

Celxpert

Perhaps materials are sufficient, the supply and demand completely depend on the Q3 outlook. EnergyTrend estimated that the battery business growth is less than 5% 1. Win7 is used in companies and schools 2. Lack of labors in Q1 and the European debt crisis in Q2 result in weak demand in Q3. EnergyTrend forecasted that the business in Q3 improved after mid August. Source: EnergyTrend 2010.07 5 October 2010| Page 15 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Cost Structure of NB Battery and Supply Chain

NB battery cost ratio Gas gauge IC

Sanyo, Sony, Panasonic, LG, Samsung Price: $9.6~10.8

Protect IC

PCB Board

11%

14%

67%

Housing

TI, Renesas, Maxim Price: $1.5~1.8

Cell

Gold Circuit Electronics, Vertex Precision, Turboard Tech.,Inc Price:$2.2

Note: Based on 6 Cells(2.2Ah), total material cost is US$15.3

Coxon, Megaforce Price: $0.8~1.2

Cell is still the key component in supply chain. The cell supply mainly supports production capacity of battery module plants. Source: EnergyTrend 5 October 2010| Page 16 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development Price Trend Weak Demand Caused the Extended Price Competition Continues in Q2

lithium batery price trend 4.5 4

Cell price (US)

3.5

3 2.5

2010Q1

2010Q2

1.5

2010Q3

1 0.5 0

2.2Ah

2.4Ah

2.6Ah

2.8Ah

3.0Ah

1. Due to decreasing price, 2.2Ah is still the main product 2. 2.6Ah will be affected by the dropping price of 2.8Ah and create crowdingout effect 3. 3.0Ah is going to be produced, and it is expected to increase market share Source: EnergyTrend 2010.07 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

5 October 2010| Page 17

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Product Trend Thin Film Lithium Batteries vs. Thin Plastic Material

Cell

18650 (2.2 Ah)

Module

General Plastic Cover (0.8 mm)

Price (6 Cells+Cover)

$1.7 X 6 + 1

Strengths

Cost Competitive

IMF housing 18650 (2.2 Ah) 16650 (2.2 Ah)

Thin Plastic Material

$1.7 X 6 + 2

Cost Competitive & Performance

$2.2X 6 + 1

Innovative Issue

(0.5 mm) General Plastic Cover (0.8 mm) New type Cell

5 October 2010| Page 18

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Various Lithium Battery Applications Energy type <1kW

<10kW

>20kW

Factors of Li Battery Development 1. Price 2. System Integration

PV,wind

UPS

Battery electric vehicle

Power type 200~2kW

1~10kW

>10kW

LEV, power tool

City car, Golf car

Hybrid vehicle

1. Productâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Life Time 2. Charging Facilities

5 October 2010| Page 19

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Various Differences on Cost Structures Energy Cell Cost Structure(%)

Power Cell Cost Structure (%)

Cathode

Graphite

Separator

Cathode

Graphite

Separator

Electrolyte

binder

Other

Electrolyte

binder

Other

6% 5%

6% 4% 26%

45%

22%

18% 22%

10%

24%

12% Energy Storage Battery: development mainly depends on energy density since unit cost. The cost of the cathode material accounts for 45%.

High Power Battery: Because of strict demand on the life time, the consistent quality of materials is requested. The costs of material are evenly distributed.

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

1. The Lithium Battery Market Status –Consumer VS Power Applications 2. Battery Product Breakdown –Cost Structures –Price Trend 3. Business Strategies –Supply Chain VS Demand Strategy 4. Market Drive Forces –Drive Factors –Products in Taiwan 5 October 2010| Page 21 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Li Batteries on Customer Products Brand company

Cell company

EMS Organization

PCM

Design in

Software

Single cell (Prismatic)

Pack

Brand company

EMS

Pack company

By Negotiation

Module

Cell company Multi cell

Pack company

(Cylindrical)

5 October 2010| Page 22

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Advanced Development of Li Battery on Customer Products Thin Film

Prismatic Energy density: 1.2~1.5X Price: $ 1.3~2.0X

Affordable Price

Normal Cylindrical Capacity: 2.2Ah, Price: $1.7

Thin Film & Affordable Price

Thinner Cylindrical Capacity: 2.0~2.2Ah Price: 1.3X~1.5X

5 October 2010| Page 23

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Supply Chain Between NB Cell Company and Pack Company -Guarantee for Cell Company Cell company

C-1 Pack (cell house) Pack A (pack house)

Cell Pack company

C-2

P-1 P-3

Pack B (pack house)

Brand (including OEM/ODM) P-2 P-4

When cell supply >forecast (market demand), C-1need P-1 support (extra cell need pack house rearrange) When cell supply < forecast (market demand),P-1 need C-1 support(Cell source can be dominate by Cell company Source: EnergyTrend ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

5 October 2010| Page 24

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Relationship Between Cell Company and Pack Company -Guarantee for Brand Vendor

Drive the Price reasonable

Cell

Pack X% (cell house) Brand (including OEM/ODM) Pack A (1-X)% (pack house) Pack B (pack house) Outsourcing

5 October 2010| Page 25

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Li Battery Development in the Automobile Industry Electronic &Mechanical Brand

Electronic & Chemistry Module

Tier supplier

Cell company

Module company

Pack company

Chemistry

Cell

Cell Company

Car company

5 October 2010| Page 26

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

1. The Lithium Battery Market Status –Consumer VS Power Applications 2. Battery Product Breakdown –Cost Structures –Price Trend 3. Business Strategies –Supply Chain VS Demand Strategy 4. Market Drive Forces –Drive Factors –Products in Taiwan 5 October 2010| Page 27 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Driving Forces of EV Industry EV development needs the policy to support in the beginning, and climate changes always deeply influence the way of living

Climate Change

Influenced areas have spread from polar to the tropics

Air Quality

More than 60% CO2 emission from vehicle

New Green Industry

Bring new industry values & new job opportunities

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

EV Industry Development Challenges Challenges come from different aspects, and only the complete collocation can contribute the comprehensive development of EV

Technical

Battery: safety, cost, life Power Electronic: improved process Infrastructure: electric structure, power plant policy

Policy

Tax lose (oil consuming) Industry benefit balance

Business

Profitable business model for car companies and operation system service

5 October 2010| Page 29

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Main Motivations of Li Batteries on Customer Products and Power Field Main Factors 1.

Customer Products

1. 2.

Increasing penetration rate of communication facilities in emerging markets

Mobile

Breakthrough on thin film battery price Rising penetration rate of the Internet connection

NB 1. 2.

HEV meets the Euro IV emission standard in advance Improved technology

1. 2.

Cell price dropped to $400/kWh PHEVs price is not more than $ 30,000

HEVs PHEVs

Automobile 1. 2.

Cell price declined to $250/kWh Increasing penetration rate of charging facilities

BEVs 5 October 2010| Page 30

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Diverse Battery Development in Taiwan, But No Vertical Integration Niche market of cells and consuming applications

OEM Li / Ternary compound semiconductor material

OEM Over 50% of NB battery modules

Materials Cells

Modules

5 October 2010| Page 31

Market

Product Strategy

Policy

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Diverse Battery Development in Taiwan Company

Product

Type

Chemistry

Voltage (V)

cell-cylindrical

18650

LMO

3.6

cell-cylindrical

18650

NMC

3.8

cell-cylindrical

18650

LCO

3.7

cell-cylindrical

26700

LMO

3.6

cell-cylindrical

26700

NMC

3.8

Phet

cell-cylindrical

18650

LFP

3.2

PSI

cell-cylindrical

40138

LFP

3.2

cell-cylindrical

40138

LFP

3.2

cell-oblong cell-oblong cell-prismatic

sonata 4400 swing 4400 1882130s

LCO LCO LFP

3.7 3.7 3.2

cell-prismatic

4882160s

LFP

3.2

cell-polymer cell-polymer cell-polymer cell-polymer cell-polymer cell-polymer

7799130 7799130 xx3448 74J0 A5J0 606168

LMO LFP LCO LFP LFP LCO

3.6 3.2 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.7

cell-polymer

5799130

LFP

3.2

cell cell cell cell

5548135 7523192 / /

LCO NMC LMO LFP

3.8 3.7 3.6 3.2

E-One Moly

GP Lyno-power Amita PSE Synergy

(EXA)

Source: EnergyTrend

5 October 2010| Page 32

EnergyTrend: 2010 Lithium Battery Development

Thank you ~

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Founded in the year 2004, WitsView, a subsidiary brand of TrendForce, is composed of a team of TFT-LCD industry experts. The research ﬁeld covers the development and market trend of upstream components,mid stream panels and downstream system integrators and retailers. www.WitsView.com

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