Unsustainable Status Quo - 9
An Unsustainable Status Quo A Complacent Conflict
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lthough Cyprus has been divided for nearly 50 years, the island has experienced few instances of violence since 1974. Yet, the length and relative stability of the conflict has produced an embedded sense of complacency, both on the island and within the international community. This relative comfort with the conflict’s status quo has reduced the incentive for actors to commit to long-term and extensive negotiations toward a settlement. The success of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), which will soon reach its sixtieth year of operation on the island, may actually impede peacemaking, since the absence of war reduces the parties’ incentive for negotiation.34 The United States and the UN likely do not want UNFICYP to become a perpetual peacekeeping force. In addition, numerous barriers to restarting talks, including the issues of security guarantees and non-recognition of the government in the North, reinforce the complacency surrounding a solution. Furthermore, the conflict is old enough to have become grounded in the identity and belief systems of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities. Transforming ingrained understandings of the conflict and the ‘other’ will be difficult to disrupt. Although the status quo may be comfortable, it is not sustainable. The history of protracted conflicts illustrates that stalemates often evolve into flashpoints of conflict — and frequently with little warning. The 2016 and 2020 clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh were triggered after approximately two decades of a relatively nonviolent ceasefire. Meanwhile, one RoC government representative cautioned that the dynamics of the Cyprus conflict are “shifting quickly.” That official’s warning demonstrates the need for renewed
efforts to manage the conflict to prevent tensions from escalating further and forestall Turkey’s creeping annexation from hardening the island’s division. Unforeseen developments could escalate the conflict, given that it features half a century of mutual suspicion and distrust. Recent developments, such as the energy dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkey’s call for a two-state solution,35 could lead to violence within the next decade. A compounding factor is the growing economic frustrations of a younger generation of Turkish Cypriots in the North. Lessons from conflicts in the Balkans, Northern Ireland, and Israel-Palestine illustrate how young people may inherit, internalize, and accelerate the grievances of their parents.36 Policymakers should prepare in advance for the potential that violence is renewed on the island. Regionally, the Cyprus conflict could impact the energy dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean, perhaps jeopardizing U.S. economic interests and international freedom of movement. Unilateral maritime delimitation efforts by Turkey and exploration of offshore hydrocarbons have created new tensions in the conflict that could jeopardize the stability on the island. It is not unlikely that Turkish and Greek or Cypriot ships could experience an altercation off the coast of Cyprus or in the Aegean Seas that could trigger a broader conflict. Furthermore, prolonging the dispute for too much longer increases the likelihood that Turkey deepens its involvement in the conflict. The international community will find it more difficult to coordinate a peace process between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots if Turkey continues to increase its interference in the energy dispute. On a global scale, maintaining the status quo could harm U.S. interests in limiting Russian
