Introduction - 3
Introduction T
he island of Cyprus has emerged as a geopolitical hotspot in the Eastern Mediterranean, requiring greater U.S. policy attention in the coming years. Historically, the Cyprus problem has been rooted in competing ethnic and nationalist identities between the two communities of the island: the majority Greek Cypriots and the minority Turkish Cypriots. Although Cyprus suffered bouts of intense violence in the early Cold War period, the situation on the island has settled into a protracted status quo. The two Cypriot communities remain deadlocked in a conflict that involves competing claims to territory, ethnic identities, and geopolitics between the two communities’ “motherlands,” Greece and Turkey. Although Cyprus has experienced low levels of violence since the 1980’s, new sources of tension pose threats to the stability of the island’s current environment. Interstate disputes over the island’s offshore hydrocarbon resources are intensifying. The economic aspirations of the Turkish Cypriots in the North, especially among youth, continue to go unmet. Russia has deepened its financial and military ties to the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) over the past decade, Turkey has adopted an increasingly aggressive stance in the Eastern Mediterranean, and China has signaled a burgeoning economic interest in Cyprus. Despite the island’s relatively stable history, intractable conflicts do not remain frozen forever. Instead, they can deteriorate with little warning, as illustrated by the recent escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the situation in Western Sahara. The incoming administration should stay ahead of the conflict curve and chart a strategic policy for Cyprus that addresses novel threats to the status quo and regional stability.
This report seeks to build upon existing U.S. foreign policy doctrine that positions the Eastern Mediterranean as a strategic space deserving special attention through a tailored foreign policy framework. The transition to a new administration presents an opportunity for considered analysis of this conflict and region of the world to redefine America’s compelling interests and priorities. Our analysis also considers potential scenarios that can threaten the stable status quo. To that end, this report presents a comprehensive strategy on the Cyprus conflict linking it to U.S. foreign policy priorities in Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the broader international environment. The analysis and policy recommendations put forward in this report make the following assumptions about the character of the conflict and its regional environment. • At the local level, we assume the continuation of the internal conflict’s status quo, characterized by a largely stable security situation between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. To the extent that any inter-communal conflict occurs in the coming years, our strategy assumes that violence would be rare and hyperlocalized as it has been since Turkey’s military intervention in 1974. • Our report assumes that Turkish President Erdogan remains in power through at least the first several years of the incoming administration and maintains Turkey’s aggressive foreign policy approach in the region. A sudden leadership change in Turkey, such as through a military coup or an electoral defeat in Turkey’s national elections scheduled for 2023, would necessitate reevaluating the U.S. strategy for Cyprus that is recommended in this report.
