V.
WATER IMPLICATIONS
Solarizing the agricultural power supply may endanger Rajasthan’s groundwater resources by increasing farmers’ ability to draw water at a near-zero marginal cost. Solar-powered electricity schemes endeavor to supply farmers with a reliable supply of daytime electricity, which will likely bring benefits to agriculture. However, farmers may use newly-generated solar power to pump even more groundwater than they could before. Prior experience with off-grid solar pumps in Rajasthan suggest that farmers respond to increased electricity supply by increasing cropping intensity or growing more water-intensive crops.96 This does not necessarily mean solarization will worsen the groundwater crisis, but it remains a possibility. Solar-powered irrigation may both (1) cause farmers who already own pumps to draw more water and (2) incentivize farmers without pumps to acquire one. Considering the extreme levels of groundwater overexploitation in Rajasthan, policies should not ignore the risk posed by solarization to groundwater resources. There is insufficient evidence to rule out the possibility that solarization will exacerbate groundwater overextraction. The only data to suggest how farmers may respond to the incentives that grid-connected solarization offers are from small pilot studies in other Indian states. These studies have not shown that solarization results in water conservation, and in general have not measured water extraction results adequately. Furthermore, their results may not be relevant for KUSUM implementation in Rajasthan due to differences in scope of interventions, implementation details, and local factors such as agricultural practices and water scarcity. Absent empirical evidence, predictions of farmer responses to solarization often rely on economic analysis.97 This ignores that farmers may have non-economic reasons for selling water, such as familial ties or religious or moral values, or that their economic motivations may be difficult to predict. For example, researchers at the World Bank calculate that farmers of most crops grown in Rajasthan would have an economic incentive to sell electricity to the grid if provided with a reasonable FiT.98 Such analysis doesn’t typically account for the possibility that farmers switch to growing higher value but more water-intensive crops. Coupling solarization with irrigation efficiency improvements is unlikely to reduce groundwater extraction. A common misconception is that increasing water efficiency necessarily conserves water; however, examples from across India (and other parts of the world) suggest the opposite is often true. For example, a previous off-grid solar pump scheme in Rajasthan required farmers to own drip irrigation systems to be eligible. Though this was found to increase the productivity of per unit water use, total use did not decrease.99 Technologies and practices that improve the effectiveness of irrigation application (e.g. by applying water at optimal times and locations in plant root zones) can lead to higher-yielding plants, boosting profitability but not necessarily reducing the overall water application.100
37
