FX Convictions Euro recovery temporary
Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research
Georgette Boele +31 20 629 7789 Roy Teo +65 65 978616
DISCLAIMER: This report has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead. This report is marketing communication and not investment research and is intended for professional and eligible clients only.
19 May 2015 We have kept most of our main FX convictions…but have closed our sterling call Since our latest report on 2 April, we have kept in place our long US dollar views versus the euro, the yen the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. However, we have closed our short sterling call. The surprising election outcome has reduced political risk for now. We have therefore revised our forecasts and to close our sterling short versus the US dollar with a small positive total return. The BoE rate hikes will likely come into focus and this will support sterling in our view.
Recent bounce in EUR/USD to be temporary… Stronger-than-expected eurozone data, weaker-than-expected US data, combined with an improved investor sentiment and higher bond yields gave strong support to the euro. EUR/USD rallied from below 1.06 to around 1.14 or an increase of more than 7%. This rally is temporary in our view. We remain of the view that EUR/USD will move lower. The ECB’s aggressive QE programme will continue to push the euro lower and weigh on eurozone yields again. In addition, stronger US economic data will trigger a 25bp rate hike at the September Fed meeting. Financial markets will adjust to factor in further Fed rate increases this year and next year. We expect this to happen over the coming months. This is a major positive driver for the US dollar. We have adjusted our near-term forecasts to reflect the recent dynamics. We hold on to our view that EUR/USD will move below parity this year. But towards the end of this year, the possibility of ECB exit will already result in a recovery in the euro. Therefore, our new EUR/USD forecast for the end of 2015 is 1.00.
…also more yen weakness because of more monetary policy easing ahead… It is likely that weakness in the Japanese yen also has further to go. This is because USD/JPY is very sensitive to developments in the interest rate spread between the US and the Japanese economies. While US short-term interest rates will move higher, we expect the BoJ to step up its monetary easing programme later this year.
Negative on Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar We expect the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar to be pushed down by the dovish stance of the respective central banks. A combination of interest rate cuts and/or intervention to weaken the currencies are likely options. The rebound in the US dollar will be particularly marked against these currencies.
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FX Convictions - Euro recovery temporary - 19 May 2015
Currency Forecasts majors Red/bold = change in forecasts
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/USD EUR/GBP USD/CHF EUR/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD EUR/SEK EUR/NOK
19-May 1.1183 119.96 134.15 1.5594 0.7171 0.9319 1.0422 0.7976 0.7405 1.2172 9.2884 8.3461
Q2 2015 1.10 122 134 1.55 0.71 0.95 1.05 0.78 0.73 1.23 9.50 8.25
Q3 2015 1.00 125 125 1.47 0.68 1.05 1.05 0.73 0.69 1.27 9.50 8.25
Q4 2015 1.00 128 128 1.49 0.67 1.05 1.05 0.72 0.68 1.30 9.50 8.00
Q1 2016 1.05 130 137 1.52 0.69 1.00 1.05 0.7 0.66 1.31 9.50 8.00
Q2 2016 1.05 135 142 1.50 0.70 1.00 1.05 0.68 0.65 1.33 9.50 7.75
Q3 2016 1.10 135 149 1.51 0.73 0.95 1.05 0.67 0.64 1.34 9.50 7.50
Q4 2016 1.15 135 155 1.51 0.76 0.96 1.10 0.66 0.64 1.35 9.50 7.50
Q4 2015 6.30 65 1,130 1.40 34.00 31.50 13,700 50 2.85 12.20 3.90 27.50 320 3.20 15.50 630
Q1 2016 6.35 65 1,140 1.42 34.50 31.80 13,800 48 2.85 12.20 3.85 27.40 320 3.20 15.25 635
Q2 2016 6.37 66 1,150 1.43 34.80 32.00 13,900 47 2.85 12.20 3.85 27.25 325 3.10 15.25 640
Q3 2016 6.38 66 1,150 1.44 34.80 32.20 14,000 46 2.85 12.20 3.85 27.00 325 3.10 15.00 645
Q4 2016 6.40 66 1,150 1.45 34.80 32.50 14,100 45 2.85 12.20 3.85 26.75 330 3.10 15.00 650
Source: ABN AMRO
Currency Forecasts major emerging markets Red/bold = change in forecast
USD/CNH USD/INR USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/THB USD/TWD USD/IDR USD/RUB USD/TRY USD/ZAR EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/HUF USD/BRL USD/MXN USD/CLP Source: ABN AMRO
19-May 6.21 64 1,088 1.33 33.43 30.47 13,190 49 2.58 11.86 4.04 27.50 306 3.01 15.11 600
Q2 2015 6.22 64 1,100 1.34 33.50 30.80 13,200 53 2.65 12.00 3.95 27.50 310 3.05 15.25 630
Q3 2015 6.26 65 1,130 1.37 33.80 31.30 13,500 52 2.85 12.20 3.95 27.50 315 3.25 15.50 630
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FX Convictions - Euro recovery temporary - 19 May 2015
Georgette Boele +31 20 629 7789 Roy Teo +65 65 978616
Performance and update of high conviction views • • • •
Dollar sell-off…and turnaround in the euro… …while high oil prices support oil currencies Improvement in investor sentiment, China stimulus and weaker dollar supported EM FX We expect more dollar strength ahead and keep our long positions versus euro, yen, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar
Dollar sell-off…
…and turnaround in the euro…
The US dollar has fallen under pressure since the FOMC
Stronger-than-expected eurozone data, combined with an
meeting on 18 March. The Fed has sounded more dovish than
improved investor sentiment and higher bond yields gave
expected. In addition, US data releases have been weak,
strong support to the euro. EUR/USD rallied from below 1.06
leading financial markets to adjust downwards expectations of
to around 1.14 or an increase of more than 7%.
Fed rate hikes this year and next. …while higher oil prices support oil currencies
Dollar out of favour 2 April – 18 May
Since the end of March Brent oil prices have rallied by around
Spot performance against the USD, in USD terms, in %
20%. This has supported the Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble.
10 8
Improvement in investor sentiment, China stimulus and
6
weaker dollar supported EM FX Emerging market currencies have benefited from a weaker US
4
dollar as market expectations that rates would be hiked at a 2
slower pace in the US increased. In addition, the general
0
improvement in investor sentiment resulted in currencies with more attractive yields coming into vogue again. Lastly,
-2 NOK
AUD
GBP
SEK
EUR
CHF
CAD
JPY
NZD
Chinese monetary stimulus supported the currencies of countries that are dependent on Chinese growth/trade.
Source: Bloomberg
EM stronger versus US dollar 2 April – 18 May 10y yield spread drives EUR/USD 10y yield spread in %
Spot performance against the USD, in USD terms, in % EUR/USD (inverse scale)
-0.5
1.50
16 12
1.40
8
-1.0
1.30
10y GE - US spread (lhs)
EUR/USD (rhs) Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg, ABN AMRO Group Economics
INR
THB
IDR
CNY
MXN
TRY
ZAR
KRW
-4 HUF
1.00
TWD
Apr 15
SGD
Jan 15
CLP
Oct 14
PLN
Jul 14
0
BRL
Apr 14
1.10
RUB
-2.0 Jan 14
4
CZK
1.20
-1.5
4
FX Convictions - Euro recovery temporary - 19 May 2015
Since our latest report on 2 April, we have kept in place
Fed rate increases this year and next year. We expect this to
our long US dollar views versus the euro, the yen the
happen over the coming months. This is a major positive driver
Australian dollar and the New Zealand. However, we have
for the US dollar. We have adjusted our near-term forecasts to
closed our sterling short versus the dollar.
reflect the recent dynamics. We hold on to our view that EUR/USD will move below parity this year. But towards the
Our open and closed high conviction 2015 views
end of this year, the possibility of ECB exit will already result in
High conviction views Open Position base currency EUR/USD Short since 20 November 2013 USD/JPY Long since 20 November 2013 AUD/USD Short since 3 July 2014 NZD/USD Short since 30 March 2015
a recovery in the euro. Therefore, our new EUR/USD forecast for the end of 2015 is 1.00.
2y yield spread to widen further 2y yield spread in %
Closed AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CNY KRW/JPY EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/SEK EUR/PLN USD/MXN USD/CHF CNH/JPY EUR/MXN GBP/USD
Closed short on 5 February 2014, re-opened on 3 July 2014 Closed short on 6 January 2014 Closed long on 5 February 2014 Closed short on 6 February 2014 on opening Closed long on 5 February 2014 Closed short on 16 June 2014 Closed long on 1 July 2014 Closed long on 3 July 2014 Closed short on 2 September 2014 Closed short on 30 September 2014 Closed long on 31 October 2014 Closed long on 10 November 2014 Closed short on 12 December 2014 Closed short on 19 May 2015 at 14.30
EUR/USD (inverse scale)
0.0
1.40
-0.2
1.30
-0.4 1.20 -0.6 1.10
-0.8 -1.0 Jan 13
1.00 Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
2y spread Germany-US (lhs)
Jan 15 EUR/USD (rhs)
Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics Source: Bloomberg, ABN AMRO Group Economics
Position for dollar strength ahead… From July 2014 until the Fed meeting in March 2015, the US
…followed by a recovery in 2016
dollar index rose by around 20%. Since then, weaker-than-
We expect a recovery in EUR/USD to start at the end of this
expected US data releases and a less hawkish Fed have
year. This is because a stronger eurozone economy and pick-
resulted in the US dollar moving lower. Has the rally come to
up inflation will probably result in financial markets starting to
an end now? We don’t think so. We still expect the US dollar to
price in a tapering from ECB QE next year. This should push
rise 10-15% on trade-weighted terms in the coming year. So
the euro higher. We expect it to rebound to 1.15 by the end of
we see the current weakness in the US dollar as an
2016.
opportunity to position for strength ahead. The strong ascent in the US dollar was to a considerable
Still a case for BoJ to increase monetary stimulus Despite a relatively optimistic growth and inflation outlook from
extent the result of the divergence of monetary policies across
the Bank of Japan (BoJ), we maintain our view that there is still
the globe, divergence in macroeconomic fundamentals and
a case for the BoJ to step up stimulus to the economy later this
weakness in other currencies. Going forward, these trends
year given that economic momentum has stalled. We do not
have a way to run. We continue to expect more Fed rate hikes
think that this is priced in by financial markets given that
in 2015 and 2016 than financial markets are currently
speculative short positions have declined to the lowest level
anticipating. This is because of our above-consensus view on
since late 2012, close to neutral. Given that core inflation is not
the US economy. We therefore expect financial markets to
expected to reach the central bank’s 2% target till fiscal year
adjust their US rate expectations upwards as the prospect of a
2016, we expect monetary policy in Japan to remain very
September hike becomes more concrete.
accommodative over the next two years. Widening interest rate differentials between US and Japan will be negative for
…and euro weakness in 2015…
the yen. In addition, we expect local life insurers to position
Looking ahead, we remain of the view that EUR/USD will
and buy overseas assets during periods of yen strength. Our
decline. The aggressive QE programme by the ECB will
USD/JPY year-end target is 128.
continue to push the euro lower. In addition, strong US economic data will warrant a 25bp rate hike at the September Fed meeting. Financial markets will adjust to factor in more
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FX Convictions - Euro recovery temporary - 19 May 2015
Japanese life insurance investment plans
is a successful renegotiation Mr Cameron would support
Japanese Life insurers
ongoing membership in such a referendum. It is likely that the
Investment plans
Nippon Life Plans to increase investment in foreign Insurance, largest lif e bonds w ithout currency hedges. insurer Increase investment in foreign stocks and bonds Dai-Ichi Life, 2nd To increase foreign stock, alternate largest lif e insurer holdings. To boost hedged foreign bond holdings. Meiji Yasuda, 3rd Boost f oreign stocks but restrain largest lif e insurer hedged foreign bond holdings
UK will vote to stay in the EU in our view. Opinion polls suggest that there is a majority in favour of membership (although as the election showed – they can be wrong). Furthermore, we think it is likely that the Prime Minister will achieve the changes he is looking for, as it looks like his ambitions in this regard are quite modest. Much of the political establishment and business are likely to support the ‘in’ camp.
Sumitomo Lif e, 4th largest lif e insurer
Expand f oreign bond holdings. May boost unhedged foreign debt holdings. Reduce foreign stock holdings
UK exit from the EU would likely a be a negative for the UK economy as it would lose free access to the biggest single
Source: Bloomberg
market in the global economy. This would be bad for UK exporters as well as foreign direct investment into the country
Conservative win boosts sterling Sterling outperformed other major currencies following the
with of view to accessing the EU. The uncertainty surrounding
election, which showed the Conservatives achieved an outright
the negotiations and referendum would likely weigh on UK
majority in parliament. This came as a complete surprise as
assets. However, this will only be a negative for sterling once
polls had suggested that no party would win a majority. With
the referendum comes closer into view.
political election uncertainty now behind us, sterling rallied strongly across the board. Going forward, the market will
RBNZ ‘talks down’ the NZD, dovish monetary policy bias
probably focus on when the BoE will start its hiking cycle. It is
Since our FX Watch on 30 March 2015, our short position
likely that financial markets are currently underestimating the
versus the USD call has yielded about 1.5% despite its
number of rates hikes this year and next year by the BoE (see
negative carry. We remain negative on the NZD for several
graph below). Therefore, we expect sterling to receive support
reasons. For a start, the central bank is of the opinion that the
when financial markets adjust upwards their rate hike
currency is unjustifiably high and unsustainable. Though data
expectations. We have adjusted our sterling forecasts to reflect
from the RBNZ showed that they did not intervene to weaken
this view. In addition, we closed our sterling short versus the
the currency in March, we do not rule out such actions going
US dollar with a small positive total return of 1.6%.
forward given the central bank’s greater discomfort with the strong exchange rate.
We expect more rate hikes than is priced in Moreover, the economy will feel the effects of lower dairy
In %
income, drought and fiscal consolidation. Economic growth will
2.50
also be impacted and inflationary pressures decline as an El
2.00
Nino event is likely this year. House price inflation is expected
1.50
to slow after both the government and the central bank recently announced further measures to cool the housing
1.00
market (to take effect from October 2015). As a result nontradable inflation is expected to decline, weighed by subdued
0.50 0.00 Jun 15
wage growth and lower food prices. Hence, we now think that Dec 15 3M on 18 May 2015
Jun 16
Dec 16
Our expectation
an interest rate cut in the last quarter of this year is more likely. Last but not least, foreign investors’ position remain a risk as non-residents holdings account for 70% of government bonds,
Source: Bloomberg, ABN AMRO Group Economics
the highest level since late 2009. We maintain our Q2 and year end NZD/USD forecast of 0.73 and 0.68 respectively.
However, with the Conservatives winning the elections and returning to government with a small majority, the Brexit issue has come into the limelight. Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on UK membership of the EU by 2017 at the latest. Before that, he intends to renegotiate the UK’s relationship with the EU with other countries. If there
AUD recovery a false dawn In our view, the recent recovery in the Australian dollar (AUD) is not sustainable for several reasons. First, we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 1.75% in the third quarter of this year. This is
6
FX Convictions - Euro recovery temporary - 19 May 2015
despite the fact that they have not signalled this. Second, the RBA signals that it is not comfortable with the strength of the AUD. For example the last monetary policy statement stated that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary.� Third, we expect the economy to remain relatively weak and this should weigh on the outlook for the currency. Fourth, an El Nino event this year is expected to provide more headwinds to the economic recovery. Lastly, we expect the US dollar to recover later this year. In the short term, we now expect the sentiment in the AUD to be less negative until the RBA signals that a rate cut is imminent. As a result, we have raised our second quarter AUD/USD forecast from 0.75 to 0.78. However we maintain our year-end target of 0.72 given that financial markets have not priced in a rate cut in the third quarter.
Financial markets have not priced in a rate cut in Q3 %
Level
2.25
0.83 0.81
2.00 0.79 1.75 0.77 1.50 Jan-15
0.75 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Sep 15 cash rate futures implied interest rate (lhs) AUD/USD (rhs)
Bloomberg, ABN AMRO Group Economics
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FX Convictions - Euro recovery temporary - 19 May 2015
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