Global Economic Forecasts
Group Economics Macro Research
27 May 2015
27/05/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
1.5
1.6
0.1
2.5
7.4
6.2
5.2
4.7
Japan
1.6
-0.1
1.1
1.2
0.3
2.8
0.8
1.4
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4 10.6
Eurozone
2016E
-0.4
0.9
1.8
2.3
1.3
0.5
0.4
1.7
12.0
11.6
11.2
Germany
0.2
1.6
2.0
2.5
1.6
0.8
1.0
2.0
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.3
France
0.4
0.4
1.4
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.7
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.2
Italy
-1.9
-0.3
0.5
1.0
1.3
0.1
-0.7
0.7
12.2
12.6
13.5
13.7
Spain
-1.2
1.4
2.8
2.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.4
1.8
26.1
24.5
22.6
20.4
The Netherlands
-0.7
0.9
2.1
2.2
2.6
0.3
0.1
1.6
7.3
7.4
7.0
6.6
Belgium
0.3
1.1
1.7
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
1.6
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.0
Austria
0.2
0.3
1.2
2.0
2.1
1.5
1.3
2.2
4.9
5.6
5.5
5.3
Finland
-1.2
-0.1
0.4
1.2
2.2
1.2
0.5
1.6
8.2
8.7
8.9
8.7
Greece
-4.4
0.7
0.5
2.7
-0.9
-1.6
-1.9
0.0
27.5
26.3
24.8
23.2
Portugal
-1.4
0.9
2.0
2.6
0.4
-0.2
0.1
1.5
16.4
14.3
13.3
12.6
0.2
5.3
3.7
3.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.7
13.1
11.0
9.5
8.5
UK
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.1
1.9
7.5
6.1
5.3
5.2
Sweden
1.3
2.2
2.4
2.7
0.2
0.0
0.4
1.0
8.2
7.9
7.6
7.3
Denmark
-0.5
1.1
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.6
1.1
5.7
4.9
4.7
4.5
1.7
1.5
0.8
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
Ireland
Switzerland Norway
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
Canada
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.0
2.0
0.5
2.1
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.0
Australia
2.8
2.9
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.7
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.0
New Zealand
2.7
3.5
2.9
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.0
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.7
2016E
World World trade
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.8
2.6
3.3
5.0
6.0
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Government debt (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
72
74
75
77
Japan
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
-8.3
-7.0
-6.5
-6.3
243
246
243
240
Eurozone
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
-2.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
91
92
92
91
6.9
7.6
7.3
7.0
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
77
75
71
68
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0
-1.5
-4.1
-4.0
-3.8
-3.5
92
95
97
98
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
-2.9
-3.0
-2.9
-2.9
129
132
134
134 102
US
Germany France Italy Spain
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.0
-6.8
-5.8
-4.2
-3.3
92
98
101
The Netherlands
11.0
10.3
10.0
9.7
-2.3
-2.3
-1.6
-1.0
69
69
68
67
Belgium
-1.5
0.4
1.5
1.5
-2.9
-3.2
-2.8
-2.6
104
107
107
106
Austria
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
-1.9
-1.6
81
85
87
86
Finland
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
-2.5
-3.2
-3.3
-3.1
56
59
63
64
Greece
-2.7
-2.8
-1.8
-1.8
-12.3
-3.5
-2.0
-0.5
175
177
177
175
Portugal
-0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.5
-4.8
-4.5
-3.5
-2.8
130
130
129
127
Ireland UK
4.4
6.0
6.0
5.5
-5.8
-4.1
-3.0
-3.0
123
110
110
105
-4.2
-3.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.8
-5.4
-4.4
-3.4
87
89
90
90
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics