Global Economic Forecasts
Group Economics Macro Research
27 May 2015
27/05/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
1.5
1.6
0.1
2.5
7.4
6.2
5.2
4.7
Japan
1.6
-0.1
1.1
1.2
0.3
2.8
0.8
1.4
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4 10.6
Eurozone
2016E
-0.4
0.9
1.8
2.3
1.3
0.5
0.4
1.7
12.0
11.6
11.2
Germany
0.2
1.6
2.0
2.5
1.6
0.8
1.0
2.0
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.3
France
0.4
0.4
1.4
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.7
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.2
Italy
-1.9
-0.3
0.5
1.0
1.3
0.1
-0.7
0.7
12.2
12.6
13.5
13.7
Spain
-1.2
1.4
2.8
2.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.4
1.8
26.1
24.5
22.6
20.4
The Netherlands
-0.7
0.9
2.1
2.2
2.6
0.3
0.1
1.6
7.3
7.4
7.0
6.6
Belgium
0.3
1.1
1.7
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
1.6
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.0
Austria
0.2
0.3
1.2
2.0
2.1
1.5
1.3
2.2
4.9
5.6
5.5
5.3
Finland
-1.2
-0.1
0.4
1.2
2.2
1.2
0.5
1.6
8.2
8.7
8.9
8.7
Greece
-4.4
0.7
0.5
2.7
-0.9
-1.6
-1.9
0.0
27.5
26.3
24.8
23.2
Portugal
-1.4
0.9
2.0
2.6
0.4
-0.2
0.1
1.5
16.4
14.3
13.3
12.6
0.2
5.3
3.7
3.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.7
13.1
11.0
9.5
8.5
UK
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.1
1.9
7.5
6.1
5.3
5.2
Sweden
1.3
2.2
2.4
2.7
0.2
0.0
0.4
1.0
8.2
7.9
7.6
7.3
Denmark
-0.5
1.1
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.6
1.1
5.7
4.9
4.7
4.5
1.7
1.5
0.8
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
Ireland
Switzerland Norway
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
Canada
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.0
2.0
0.5
2.1
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.0
Australia
2.8
2.9
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.7
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.0
New Zealand
2.7
3.5
2.9
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.0
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.7
2016E
World World trade
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.8
2.6
3.3
5.0
6.0
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Government debt (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
72
74
75
77
Japan
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
-8.3
-7.0
-6.5
-6.3
243
246
243
240
Eurozone
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
-2.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
91
92
92
91
6.9
7.6
7.3
7.0
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
77
75
71
68
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0
-1.5
-4.1
-4.0
-3.8
-3.5
92
95
97
98
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
-2.9
-3.0
-2.9
-2.9
129
132
134
134 102
US
Germany France Italy Spain
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.0
-6.8
-5.8
-4.2
-3.3
92
98
101
The Netherlands
11.0
10.3
10.0
9.7
-2.3
-2.3
-1.6
-1.0
69
69
68
67
Belgium
-1.5
0.4
1.5
1.5
-2.9
-3.2
-2.8
-2.6
104
107
107
106
Austria
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
-1.9
-1.6
81
85
87
86
Finland
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
-2.5
-3.2
-3.3
-3.1
56
59
63
64
Greece
-2.7
-2.8
-1.8
-1.8
-12.3
-3.5
-2.0
-0.5
175
177
177
175
Portugal
-0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.5
-4.8
-4.5
-3.5
-2.8
130
130
129
127
Ireland UK
4.4
6.0
6.0
5.5
-5.8
-4.1
-3.0
-3.0
123
110
110
105
-4.2
-3.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.8
-5.4
-4.4
-3.4
87
89
90
90
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
2
Global Economic Forecasts – 27 May 2015
27/05/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
Emerging Asia
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.4
4.7
3.5
3.0
2016E 3.4
Emerging Europe
1.8
1.3
-0.7
2.0
5.3
6.2
10.7
5.3
Latin America
2.4
0.9
0.3
2.0
8.9
12.6
13.1
10.3
Middle East / North Africa
1.5
2.8
3.0
4.2
13.5
7.4
7.0
6.8
EM Total
4.6
4.4
4.0
4.8
6.5
5.8
6.1
5.2
Eurozone
-0.4
0.9
1.8
2.3
1.3
0.5
0.4
1.7
US
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
1.5
1.6
0.1
2.5
World
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.8
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.8
China
7.7
7.4
7.0
7.0
2.6
2.0
2.0
2.5
India
6.4
7.2
7.5
7.5
10.7
6.7
5.5
5.5
Turkey
4.1
2.9
3.0
3.5
7.5
8.9
7.0
6.5
Russia
1.3
0.6
-4.0
0.5
6.8
7.8
15.0
6.0
Brazil
2.7
0.1
-1.0
2.0
6.2
6.3
8.3
5.8
2016E
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
1.2
1.8
2.5
2.0
-2.5
-2.3
-3.0
-3.0
Emerging Europe
-1.4
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-1.6
-1.5
-3.0
-2.5
Latin America
-2.5
-2.7
-3.0
-3.0
-2.8
-4.7
-5.5
-3.5
8.5
6.0
-1.0
1.5
0.3
-1.9
-7.0
-4.0
Emerging Asia
Middle East / North Africa Eurozone US
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
-2.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
Emerging economies* China
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-2.5
-3.0
India
-2.6
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
-4.5
-4.1
-4.0
-4.0
Turkey
-7.9
-6.0
-4.5
-5.5
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
-1.5
Russia
1.6
3.2
3.0
2.5
-0.5
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
-3.4
-3.9
-4.0
-4.0
-2.9
-6.3
-6.5
-4.0
Brazil
* 2015 and 2016 for current account and b udget deficit are rounded figures Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
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3
Global Economic Forecasts – 27 May 2015
KEY RATES FORECASTS 27/05/2015
Official policy rate (%, eop)
3m interbank rate (%, eop)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
US
0.25
0.25
0.75
2.25
0.2
0.3
0.9
2.4
Japan
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
Eurozone
0.25
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
UK
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.75
0.6
0.6
1.0
2.0
Sweden
0.75
0.00
-0.50
-0.50
0.8
0.3
-0.5
-0.3
Denmark
0.20
0.20
-1.00
-1.00
-0.2
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
-1.00
-1.00
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
Norway
1.50
1.25
1.00
1.25
1.5
1.5
0.8
1.5
Canada
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.25
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.5
Australia
2.50
2.50
1.75
2.25
2.6
2.7
2.0
2.5
New Zealand
2.50
3.50
3.50
4.00
2.7
3.7
3.7
4.3
10y government bond yields (%, eop)
Spread versus Bunds (% points)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
3.0
2.2
2.7
2.9
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.1
France
Japan
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.0
2.3
1.4
0.7
0.6
Italy
Eurozone (Bunds)
1.9
0.5
0.5
1.4
2.2
1.3
0.4
0.3
Spain
UK
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
The Netherlands
Sweden
2.5
1.2
0.8
1.5
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.1
Belgium
Denmark
2.0
0.9
0.6
1.2
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
Austria
Switzerland
1.0
0.4
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Finland
Norway
3.0
2.3
1.4
2.0
6.5
7.3
4.5
3.0
Greece
Canada
2.8
2.1
2.0
2.8
4.1
2.4
1.2
0.8
Portugal
Australia
4.3
3.3
2.5
3.5
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.2
Ireland
New Zealand
4.7
4.1
4.0
5.0
Exchange rates (versus USD, eop)* 2013
2014
2015E
Exchange rates (versus EUR, eop)* 2016E
USD USD/JPY
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1.38
1.21
1.00
1.15
EUR/USD
141
145
128
155
EUR/JPY EUR/GBP
103
120
128
135
USD/EUR
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.87
GBP/USD
1.66
1.51
1.49
1.51
0.83
0.80
0.67
0.76
USD/SEK
6.35
7.77
9.5
8.3
8.75
9.40
9.5
9.5
EUR/SEK
USD/DKK
5.41
6.15
7.1
7.8
7.46
7.44
7.5
7.5
EUR/DKK
USD/CHF
0.91
0.99
1.1
1.0
1.25
1.20
1.1
1.1
EUR/CHF
USD/NOK
5.88
7.56
8.0
6.5
8.10
9.15
8.0
7.5
EUR/NOK
USD/CAD
1.07
1.16
1.3
1.4
1.47
1.40
1.3
1.6
EUR/CAD
AUD/USD
0.89
0.83
0.7
0.7
1.55
1.46
1.4
1.7
EUR/AUD
NZD/USD
0.82
0.77
0.7
0.6
1.68
1.57
1.5
1.8
EUR/NZD
USD/CNY
6.10
6.20
6.3
6.4
8.41
7.51
6.0
7.0
EUR/CNY
USD/INR
61.90
63.33
65
66
85.29
81.06
65
76
EUR/INR
USD/TRY
2.14
2.33
2.9
2.9
2.94
2.82
2.9
3.3
EUR/TRY
USD/RUB
32.73
60.74
50
45
45.10
73.50
50
52
EUR/RUB
USD/BRL
2.34
2.66
3.2
3.1
3.23
3.21
3.0
3.4
EUR/BRL
*2015 and 2016 are rounded figures Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
4
Global Economic Forecasts – 27 May 2015
Update: 27/05/15
Nom inal GDP
GDP grow th (% yoy)
EUR bn
Inflation (CPI, % yoy avg)
Forecast:
Govt balance (% GDP)
Forecast: 2016
Governm ent debt (% GDP)
Forecast**: 2016
2014
2015
Forecast:
2014
2014
2015
2014
2015
2016
Russia
3363
0.6
-4.0
Poland
862
3.3
3.5
0.5
7.8
15.0
6.0
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
10
13
15
4.0
0.0
-0.5
1.0
-3.2
-3.0
-2.5
50
51
51
Czech Rep
299
2.0
3.5
3.0
0.4
1.0
1.5
-2.0
-2.0
-1.5
43
42
42
Hungary
224
3.6
2.5
2.5
-0.2
0.0
2.5
-2.6
-2.5
-2.0
77
75
74
Romania
371
2.8
3.0
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.5
-1.8
-1.5
-1.5
39
39
39
Bulgaria
114
1.5
1.5
2.5
-1.6
-0.5
1.0
-2.8
-3.0
-3.0
28
30
31
China
15083
7.4
7.0
7.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
-1.8
-2.5
-3.0
16
17
19
India
6253
7.2
7.5
7.5
6.7
5.5
5.5
-4.1
-4.0
-4.0
50
49
47
South Korea
1601
3.3
3.0
3.5
1.3
1.0
2.0
0.3
0.5
1.0
36
36
35
Taiw an
934
3.7
3.5
3.5
1.2
0.5
1.5
-1.4
-1.0
-1.0
33
34
35
Hong Kong
366
2.5
2.5
3.0
4.4
3.5
3.0
0.8
-0.5
-1.0
40
41
43
Indonesia
2330
5.0
5.0
5.5
6.4
6.5
5.0
-2.2
-2.0
-2.0
25
25
26
Thailand
934
0.7
3.5
4.0
1.9
0.0
2.5
-2.2
-2.0
-2.0
50
54
57
Singapore
407
3.0
3.0
3.5
1.0
0.5
1.5
1.3
-1.5
0.5
105
109
109
Malaysia
654
6.0
5.0
5.0
3.1
2.0
3.0
-3.6
-4.0
-4.0
54
55
55
Philippines
591
6.1
6.5
6.5
4.2
2.5
3.5
-0.6
-2.0
-2.0
45
44
44
Brazil
3101
0.1
-1.0
2.0
6.3
8.3
5.8
-6.3
-6.5
-4.0
59
64
64
Mexico
1971
2.1
2.5
3.0
4.0
3.6
3.9
-3.2
-3.5
-3.0
42
45
47
Argentina
842
0.5
-0.5
1.0
37.6
27.7
26.3
-2.5
-3.5
-2.5
39
41
41
Venezuela
538
-4.0
-6.0
-4.0
62.2
74.0
49.8
-13.2
-17.5
-12.0
53
57
60
Colombia
564
4.6
3.5
3.5
2.9
4.4
3.5
-1.4
-2.0
-1.5
47
48
46
Chile
366
1.9
3.0
4.0
4.4
3.9
3.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.0
15
16
17
Peru
300
2.4
4.0
5.0
3.2
2.8
3.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
20
20
19
Turkey
1350
2.9
3.0
3.5
8.9
7.0
6.5
-1.3
-1.5
-1.5
35
33
32
South Africa
666
1.5
2.2
3.0
6.1
4.5
5.1
-4.0
-4.0
-3.0
47
45
44
Macroeconomic forecasts and exchange rates (year end) Current account (% GDP) Forecast**: 2014
2015
Exchange rate against USD:
Exchange rate against EUR:
Recent
Recent
2016 27/05/2015
Forecast**: 2015
2016 27/05/2015
Forecast**: 2015
2016
Russia
3.2
3.0
2.5
50.60
50
45
55.14
50
52
Poland
-1.4
-2.0
-2.0
3.80
3.9
3.3
4.14
4.0
4.0
Czech Rep
-0.9
0.5
0.5
25.16
28
23
27.42
28
27
Hungary
4.4
5.5
6.0
284
320
290
309
320
330
Romania
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
4.09
4.4
4.4
4.46
4.5
5.0
Bulgaria
0.9
1.5
1.0
1.79
2.0
1.7
1.96
2.0
3.0
China
2.2
2.5
2.0
6.20
6.3
6.4
6.76
6.5
7.5
India*
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
64.00
65
66
69.74
65
76
6.3
5.0
5.5
1101
1150
1150
1200
1150
1300
12.3
13.5
12.5
30.63
32
33
33.38
32
37
1.9
3.5
3.5
7.75
7.8
7.8
8.45
8.0
9.0
Indonesia
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
13210
13700
14100
14396
13700
16200
Thailand
2.4
2.0
1.5
33.75
34
35
36.78
34
40
19.1
20.5
19.5
1.35
1.4
1.5
1.47
1.5
1.5
Malaysia
4.4
3.0
4.0
3.63
3.5
3.2
3.96
3.5
3.5
Philippines
4.1
4.5
3.5
44.71
44
43
48.72
44
49
Brazil
-3.9
-4.0
-4.0
3.14
3.2
3.1
3.42
3.0
3.5
Mexico
-2.1
-2.0
-1.5
15.32
15.5
15.0
16.69
15.5
17.5
Argentina
-1.0
-1.5
-1.0
8.97
11.3
13.6
9.78
11.5
15.5
Venezuela
1.3
-2.0
-1.0
6.28
6.3
6.3
6.84
6.5
7.0
-5.2
-7.0
-5.0
2545
2300
2300
2773
2300
2650
South Korea Taiw an Hong Kong
Singapore
Colombia Chile
-1.1
-1.5
-1.5
613
630
650
668
630
750
Peru
-4.1
-4.5
-4.0
3.15
3.1
3.2
3.44
3.0
3.5
Turkey
-6.0
-4.5
-5.5
2.64
2.9
2.9
2.87
3.0
3.5
South Africa
-5.4
-5.0
-4.5
12.05
13.14 12.2 12.2 Exchange rate EUR/USD Exchange rate USD/EUR
12.0 1.00 1.00
14.0 1.15 0.87
**Forec asts for govt balance, c urrent acc ount and exc hange rates are rounded So urce: A B N A M RO Gro up Eco no mics, EIU, Euro pean Co mmissio n
2014
2015
2016