150608 turkey watch

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Group Economics Emerging Market Research

Turkey Watch

Peter de Bruin +31 20 3435619

Erdogan’s presidential hopes in tatters

8 June 2015 

AKP unexpectedly failed to secure a majority,…

…as the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party easily clears the 10% hurdle for parliamentary presentation

Turkish lira dives as coalition talks will be challenging, and there is a chance of a snap election after 45 days

More positively, election outcome will give the central bank some breathing space

AKP unexpectedly failed to secure a majority…

considerably weaker than before the financial crisis, when

According to the latest exit polls, President Erdogan’s AKP has

significantly higher growth rates were the norm. In order to

failed to grab an outright majority in the latest elections. The

achieve stronger growth the savings rate will need to rise,

party captured 40.9% of the vote. This is easily the largest vote

which should bolster investment and exports. This would

share, but falls well short of the 2011 election result when

necessitate tighter monetary policy in the short run that would

49.8% of the votes were seized. As a result, the AKP failed to

would hamper growth even more. It therefore has been a

win the 276 seats needed to form a single-party government

policy that Erdogan’s AKP has been unwilling to support.

(Turkey’s parliament exists of 550 seats).

Growth slower than before the crisis …as the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party clears parliamentary threshold

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The loss of the AKP was mostly due to the success of the proKurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) which, with 13.1% of the vote, easily cleared the 10% hurdle for parliamentary presentation. It received strong backing from its Kurdish support base, as tensions between the government and the

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Kurds have steadily risen over the past time. This reflects the perception among Kurds that Turkey has not done enough to stem the fight of IS against the Kurds in Syria. In addition, in the run up to the elections, the AKP had distanced itself from

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the peace process with the PKK and had struck an increasingly nationalistic tone, hoping that it would deter non-

Source: EIU

Kurds for voting for the HDP. MHP most likely coalition power And voters reject Erdogan’s attempts to acquire more

The AKP’s nationalistic rhetoric notwithstanding, nationalist

power…

voters voted for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). It

In addition, the HDP has attracted votes from many liberal

secured 16.3% of the votes, up from 13.0% during the last

secular Turks which fear President Erdogan’s ambitions.

general elections. The MHP is the most likely candidate to

Indeed, underlying the change in the political landscape are

form a coalition with the AKP, as the two parties have some

voters’ rejections against Erdogan’s desire to change the

overlap in their support bases, though coalition talks are likely

constitution in order to strengthen the role of the presidency.

to be challenging. Indeed, the main opposition partner, the

This was largely seen as an attempt to reduce checks and

Republican People’s Party (CHP), which secured 25% of the

balances by curtailing the power of the parliament and had

votes, has indicated that it does not want to form a coalition

ignited fears of an increasingly authoritarian president.

with the AKP, as has the HDP. Alternatively, the AKP could form a minority government, or, theoretically, the HDP and

…while the weak economic backdrop is not helping either

CHP could try to form a minority government themselves.

Finally, as usually is the case, support for the incumbent party

According to Turkish law, parties now have 45 days to form a

tends to be less whenever the economic backdrop is weaker.

new government. If they do not succeed within this time frame,

With growth expected to come in at just 3% this year, and the

President Erdogan could call for new elections.

unemployment rate trending gradually upwards, the current economic track record is not much to write home about. It is


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