150817 fx watch chf

Page 1

FX Watch

Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research Georgette Boele +31 20 629 7789

Stealth intervention by the SNB?

17 August 2015 • • • •

Swiss franc weakness There are signs of SNB stealth intervention More monetary policy easing is needed to support the economy Our new year-end EUR/CHF forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are 1.10 and 1.15 respectively First, an increase in the level of sight deposits could indicate

Swiss franc weakness Since the middle of July the Swiss franc has been the weakest major currency. Versus the euro it lost more than 4.5% and versus the US dollar around 1.6%. Is this weakness marketdetermined or has the invisible hand of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) helped the move? Below we argue the Swiss franc weakness has not come naturally by assessing changes

that the SNB has provided liquidity through short-term money market transactions. Second, they can also increase as a result of Swiss franc inflows which are deposited at the central bank. This steady increase in FX reserves could mean the following. First, the SNB could have been intervening at a modest pace to prevent that EUR/CHF moved lower at the height of the Greek saga, while pushing EUR/CHF higher

in the balance sheet of the SNB.

when sentiment has started to improve. Second, the steady increase in sight deposits could also be a sign of CHF inflows

Behaviour of sight deposits… In general, intervention in currency markets often coincides with a sharp increase in sight deposits. This is reflected by the close relationship between the increase in sight deposits and the increase in FX reserves at the SNB (see graph above). For example in August 2011, the Swiss franc rallied towards parity versus the euro. The SNB reacted by introducing the floor in EUR/CHF at 1.20 in September 2011. In this period there was a substantial increase in sight deposits. Another example is that after the SNB abandoned the floor in EUR/CHF in January

that are deposited at the central bank. Such inflows would result in upward pressure to the Swiss franc. Intervening in currency markets to weaken the Swiss franc is a strategy to alleviate this pressure. This morning total sight deposits increased only slightly.

SNB stealth intervention? Sight deposits in bn CHF

EUR/CHF

465

1.10

460

1.08

Increase in sight deposits signal FX intervention

455

1.06

In in bn CHF

450

1.04

600

445

1.02

500

440 Mar 15

of 2015, sight deposits also increased.

400

May 15 Sight deposits (lhs)

300

Jul 15

1.00 Sep 15

EUR/CHF (rhs)

200 Source: Bloomberg

100 0 11

12 FX reserves (lhs)

13

14

15

Sight deposits (lhs)

…and more evidence of currency intervention… The latest SNB FX reserves data from July show a total increase of 15bn CHF compared to June. Most of this increase

Source: Bloomberg

is the result of valuation effects due to the weakening of the Swiss franc. However, around 1/3 of the increase in total FX

A steady increase in sight deposits at the SNB… Since April of this year sight deposits at the SNB have increased at a steady rate. They are now about 4% higher than they were in April. These sight deposits are a major instrument to finance currency interventions. How can they increase?

reserves can’t be explained from currency movements and, therefore, are rises in the volume of reserves. This suggests that the SNB has intervened in currency markets in July to weaken the Swiss franc. Chairman Thomas Jordan said on 25 June that the Swiss franc is currently significantly overvalued. Monetary policy is guided by the SNB’s willingness to take an


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.