Global Economic Forecasts
Group Economics Macro Research
18 August 2015
18/08/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
1.5
2.4
2.7
3.1
1.6
1.6
0.4
2.4
7.4
6.2
5.2
4.7
Japan
1.6
-0.1
1.0
1.2
0.3
2.8
0.7
1.4
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4 10.5
Eurozone
2016E
-0.3
0.9
1.5
2.2
1.3
0.5
0.2
1.5
12.0
11.6
11.1
Germany
0.4
1.6
1.8
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.6
1.8
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.2
France
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.3
1.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
9.9
Italy
-1.9
-0.4
0.3
0.9
1.3
0.2
-0.3
0.2
12.1
12.7
12.5
12.6
Spain
-1.2
1.4
3.1
2.9
1.4
-0.2
-0.2
1.3
26.1
24.4
22.3
20.1
The Netherlands
-0.4
1.0
2.3
2.4
2.6
0.3
0.4
1.5
7.3
7.4
6.9
6.5
Belgium
0.3
1.1
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
1.6
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.2
Austria
0.2
0.3
0.8
1.9
2.1
1.5
1.1
1.8
5.3
5.6
5.9
5.7
Finland
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
2.2
1.2
0.2
1.4
8.2
8.7
9.4
9.2
Greece
-4.4
0.7
-1.5
-4.5
-0.9
-1.4
-1.4
-0.2
27.5
26.5
26.2
28.1
Portugal
-1.4
0.9
1.9
2.2
0.4
-0.2
0.5
1.5
16.4
14.1
12.6
11.8
0.2
5.3
5.0
3.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.7
13.1
11.0
9.5
8.5
UK
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.1
1.9
7.5
6.1
5.3
5.2
Sweden
1.3
1.1
1.6
2.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.0
8.2
7.9
6.5
6.0
Denmark
-0.5
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.7
1.8
5.6
4.9
4.7
4.5
1.7
1.5
0.8
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-1.5
-0.6
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.6
Ireland
Switzerland Norway
2.0
2.2
1.4
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.0
Canada
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.0
2.0
0.5
2.1
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.0
Australia
2.8
2.9
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.7
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.0
New Zealand
2.7
3.5
2.9
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.0
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.8
2016E
World World trade
3.1
3.3
3.1
3.8
2.6
3.3
2.0
4.5
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Government debt (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
72
74
75
77
Japan
0.8
0.5
2.2
2.0
-8.3
-7.0
-6.5
-6.3
243
247
243
240
Eurozone
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.5
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-1.9
91
92
93
92
6.9
7.6
8.0
7.6
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.7
77
75
71
68
-2.0
-1.7
-1.2
-1.5
-4.1
-4.0
-3.8
-3.5
92
95
97
98
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
-2.8
-3.0
-2.9
-2.9
128
132
134
134 101
US
Germany France Italy Spain
1.5
0.6
1.1
1.0
-6.8
-5.8
-4.2
-3.3
92
98
100
The Netherlands
11.0
10.8
10.4
10.0
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-1.5
68
68
67
67
Belgium
-1.5
0.4
2.0
2.1
-2.9
-3.2
-3.0
-2.8
104
107
107
106
Austria
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
-2.0
-1.8
81
85
87
86
Finland
-1.9
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
-2.5
-3.2
-3.5
-3.2
56
59
64
65
Greece
0.6
0.9
2.0
4.0
-12.3
-3.5
-4.0
-3.5
175
177
200
200
Portugal
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.3
-4.8
-4.5
-3.7
-2.8
130
130
129
127
Ireland UK
4.4
6.0
6.0
5.5
-5.8
-4.1
-3.0
-3.0
123
110
110
105
-4.2
-3.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.8
-5.4
-4.4
-3.4
87
89
90
90
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
2
Global Eco onomic Fore ecasts – 18 August 201 15
18/08/201 15
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
20 013
2014
2015E
2016E E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Emerging g Asia
6.5 6
6.4
6.2
6.4
4.6
3.5
2.7
3.2
Emerging g Europe
1.8
1.3
-0.9
1.9
5.3
6.3
11.2
5.5
Latin Ame erica
2.4 2
1.0
-0.2
1.3
9.0
12.8
15.3
11.9
Middle Ea ast / North Africa
1.4
3.0
2.9
4.0
13.5
7.3
7.2
6.8
EM Total
4.6 4
4.4
3.8
4.7
6.5
5.8
6.3
5.2
Eurozone
-0 0.3
0.9
1.5
2.2
1.3
0.5
0.2
1.5
US
1.5
2.4
2.7
3.1
1.6
1.6
0.4
2.4
World
3.1 3
3.3
3.1
3.8
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.8
China
7.7 7
7.4
7.0
7.0
2.6
2.0
1.5
2.0
India
6.9 6
7.3
7.5
7.5
10.7
6.7
5.5
5.5
Turkey
4.2 4
2.9
3.0
3.5
7.5
8.9
7.4
6.5
Russia
1.3
0.6
-4.0
0.5
6.8
7.8
15.0
6.0
Brazil
2.7 2
0.1
-2.0
0.0
6.2
6.3
8.8
5.9
Budget balance (% GDP)
Current account (% GDP) 20 013
2014
2015E
2016E E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Emerging g Asia
1.2
1.7
2.5
2.0
-2.5
-2.3
-2.5
-3.0
Emerging g Europe
-1.3
0.1
1.0
0.5
-1.6
-1.5
-3.0
-2.5
Latin Ame erica
-2 2.8
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
-2.8
-4.7
-5.5
-4.0
Middle Ea ast / North Africa
8.9 8
5.9
-0.5
1.0
0.5
-2.9
-7.5
-5.0
Eurozone
2.6 2
2.9
3.3
3.5
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-1.9
US
-2 2.4
-2.4
-2.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
Emerging g economies* China
1.9
1.8
2.5
2.5
-1.9
-1.8
-2.5
-3.0
India
2.6 -2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
-4.4
-4.0
-4.0
-4.0
Turkey
-7 7.9
-5.8
-5.5
-6.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
Russia
1.7
3.2
5.0
4.0
-0.5
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
Brazil
-4 4.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-2.9
-6.3
-6.5
-4.5
* 2015 an nd 2016 for current account a and b udgett deficit are rounded d figures Source: Thomson T Reuters Da atastream, EIU, ABN N AMRO Group Eco onomics
Fin nd more about G Group Econom mics on https:///insights.abna amro.nl/en/cattegory/econom my/
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3
Global Eco onomic Fore ecasts – 18 August 201 15
KEY K RAT TES FOR RECASTS S 18/08/2015
Official policy ratte (%, eop)
3m inte erbank rate (%, eop))
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
20 013
2014
2015E
2016E
US
0.25
0.25
0.75
1.75
0.2
0.3
0.7
1.7
Japan
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
Eurozone
0.25
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
UK
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.7
Sweden
0.75
0.00
-0.50
-0.50
0.8
0.3
-0.5
-0.3
Denmark
0.20
0.20
-1.00
-1.00
-0.2 -
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
-1.00
-1.00
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
Norway
1.50
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.5
1.5
0.8
1.3
Canada
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
1.1
1.2
0.5
1.0
Australia
2.50
2.50
1.75
2.25
2.6
2.7
2.0
2.5
New Zealand
2.50
3.50
2.75
3.00
2.7
3.7
3.0
3.2
p) 10y government bond yields (%, eop
Spread d versus Bunds (% points) p
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
20 013
2014
2015E
2016E
US
3.0
2.2
2.8
3.0
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
France
Japan
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.0
2.3
1.4
1.0
0.5
Italy
Eurozone (Bunds)
1.9
0.5
0.9
1.8
2.2
1.3
0.9
0.3
Spain
UK
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
s The Netherlands
Sweden
2.5
1.2
1.3
2.0
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
Belgium
Denmark
2.0
0.9
1.2
1.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Austria
Switzerland
1.0
0.4
-0.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Finland
Norway
3.0
2.3
1.8
2.5
6.5
7.3
9.0
4.5
Greece
Canada
2.8
2.1
2.0
2.8
4.1
2.4
1.5
0.8
Portugal
Australia
4.3
3.3
2.5
3.5
1.7
0.8
1.0
0.5
Ireland
New Zealand
4.7
4.1
3.5
4.0
( USD, eop)* Exchange rates (versus 2013
2014
2015E
nge rates (versus EU UR, eop)* Exchan 2016E
USD
20 013
2014
2015E
2016E
1.38 1
1.21
1.00
1.15
EUR/USD
141
145
128
155
EUR/JPY
USD/JPY
103
120
128
135
USD/EUR
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.87
GBP/USD
1.66
1.51
1.49
1.51
0.83 0
0.80
0.67
0.76
EUR/GBP
USD/SEK
6.35
7.77
9.5
8.3
8.75 8
9.40
9.5
9.5
EUR/SEK
USD/DKK
5.41
6.15
7.1
7.8
7.46 7
7.44
7.5
7.5
EUR/DKK
USD/CHF
0.91
0.99
1.1
1.0
1.25 1
1.20
1.1
1.2
EUR/CHF
USD/NOK
5.88
7.56
8.5
7.0
8.10 8
9.15
8.5
8.0
EUR/NOK
USD/CAD
1.07
1.16
1.4
1.5
1.47 1
1.40
1.4
1.7
EUR/CAD
AUD/USD
0.89
0.83
0.7
0.6
1.55 1
1.46
1.4
1.8
EUR/AUD
NZD/USD
0.82
0.77
0.6
0.6
1.68 1
1.57
1.6
2.0
EUR/NZD
USD/CNY
6.10
6.20
6.6
6.8
8.40 8
7.51
6.6
7.8
EUR/CNY
USD/INR
61.90
63.33 6
66
68
85 5.29
81.06
66
78
EUR/INR
USD/TRY
2.14
2.33
2.9
2.9
2.94 2
2.82
2.9
3.3
EUR/TRY
USD/RUB
32.73
60.74 6
50
45
45 5.10
73.50
50
52
EUR/RUB
USD/BRL
2.34
2.66
3.6
3.5
3.23 3
3.21
3.6
4.0
EUR/BRL
*2015 and 2016 arre rounded figures Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream m, EIU, ABN AMRO G Group Economics
4
Global Eco onomic Fore ecasts – 18 August 201 15
Update: 18/08/15
Nom iinal GDP
GDP g grow th (% yoy)
EUR bn
Inflation ((CPI, % yoy avg)
Forecast**:
Governm ent debt d (% GDP)
Govt balance (% GDP)
Forecast:
Forecast**:
Fore ecast:
2014
20 014
2015
2016
20144
2015
20 016
2014
2015
20166
2014
2015 2
2016
Rus ssia
3447
0 0.6
-4.0
0.5
7.8
15.0
6.0 6
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
10
13
15
Pola and
883
3 3.5
3.5
4.0
0.0
-0.5
1.5 1
-3.2
-3.0
-2.5
50
51
51
Cze ech Rep
301
2 2.0
3.5
3.0
0.4
1.0
1.5 1
-2.0
-2.0
-1.5
43
42
42
Hun ngary
223
3 3.6
3.0
2.5
-0.2
0.0
2.5 2
-2.6
-2.5
-2.0
77
75
74
Rom mania
371
2 2.8
3.0
3.5
1.4
0.2
0.9 0
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
40
40
42
Bulg garia
114
1 1.7
2.0
2.5
-1.4
0.7
2.0 2
-2.8
-3.0
-3.0
28
30
31
China
15235
7 7.4
7.0
7.0
2.0
1.5
2.0 2
-1.8
-2.5
-3.0
15
17
19
Indiia
6253
7 7.3
7.5
7.5
6.7
5.5
5.5 5
-4.0
-4.0
-4.0
51
50
48
Sou uth Korea
1601
3 3.3
2.5
3.5
1.3
1.0
2.0 2
0.6
0.0
0.0
34
34
33
Taiw w an
934
3 3.8
2.5
3.5
1.2
0.0
1.5 1
-1.3
-1.5
-1.5
33
33
33
Hon ng Kong
366
2 2.5
2.5
3.0
4.4
3.5
3.0 3
0.8
0.5
-0.5
40
40
42
Indo onesia
2330
5 5.0
5.0
5.5
6.4
6.5
5.0 5
-2.3
-2.5
-2.0
25
26
26
Tha ailand
1014
0 0.9
3.0
3.5
1.9
-0.5
2.0 2
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
46
51
55
Sing gapore
407
2 2.9
2.5
3.0
1.0
0.0
1.5 1
1.3
-1.0
0.5
99
102
102
Mallaysia
674
6 6.0
5.0
5.0
3.1
2.0
3.0 3
-3.4
-4.0
-3.5
53
54
54
Phillippines
591
6 6.1
6.0
6.0
4.2
2.0
3.0 3
-0.6
-2.0
-2.0
45
45
44
Bra azil
3101
0 0.1
-2.0
0.0
6.3
8.8
5.9 5
-6.3
-6.5
-4.5
59
65
68
Mex xico
1971
2 2.1
2.5
3.0
4.0
2.7
3.6 3
-3.2
-3.5
-3.0
42
45
47
Arg gentina
890
0 0.5
-0.5
2.0
38
28
26
-2.5
-3.5
-2.5
39
41
41
Ven nezuela
538
-2 2.9
-6.0
-4.0
62
104
73
-13.2
-17.5
-12.0
53
55
56
Colo ombia
564
4 4.6
2.5
3.5
2.9
4.3
3.1 3
-1.4
-2.0
-2.5
47
48
48
Chile
368
1 1.9
2.5
3.5
4.4
4.0
3.4 3
-1.6
-2.0
-1.0
15
16
16
Perru
300
2 2.4
4.0
5.0
3.2
3.4
3.3 3
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
20
19
18
Turrkey
1350
2 2.9
3.0
3.5
8.9
7.4
6.5 6
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
35
34
33
Sou uth Africa
659
1 1.5
2.0
3.0
6.1
4.7
5.1 5
-3.9
-4.5
-3.5
47
48
47
Ma acroeconomic forecasts and exchange rate es (year end) Curre ent account (% GD DP) Forecast**: 20 014
2015
Exchangee rate against USD:
Exchange ra ate against EUR:
Recent
Recent
2016 18/08/20155
Forecast**: 2015
20 016 18/08/2015
Forecast**: 2015
20166
Rus ssia
3 3.2
5.0
4.0
65.255
50
45
72.26
50
52
Pola and
-1 1.4
-2.0
-2.0
3.766
3.9
3.3 3
4.16
4.0
4.0
Cze ech Rep
-0 0.9
0.5
0.5
24.400
28
23
27.02
28
27
Hun ngary
4 4.4
5.5
6.0
2799
320
290 2
309
320
330
Rom mania
-0 0.5
-1.0
-1.0
4.000
4.5
4.3 4
4.43
4.5
5.0
Bulg garia
0 0.9
1.5
1.0
1.777
2.0
1.7 1
1.96
2.0
3.0
China
1 1.8
2.5
2.5
6.399
6.6
6.8 6
7.08
6.5
8.0
Indiia*
-1 1.3
-1.5
-2.0
65.311
66
68
72.33
66
78
6 6.3
5.0
4.5
11833
1250
13 300
1310
1250
1500
12 2.3
13.0
11.5
32.300
33
34
35.77
33
39
1 1.9
4.0
2.5
7.755
7.8
7.8 7
8.59
8.0
9.0
Indo onesia
-2 2.9
-2.5
-2.5
137888
14300
150 000
15269
14300
17250
Tha ailand
3 3.2
2.5
2.0
35.400
36
37
39.20
36
43
19 9.1
20.0
19.0
1.411
1.5
1.5 1
1.56
1.5
1.5
Mallaysia
4 4.3
3.0
4.0
4.111
4.1
4.2 4
4.55
4.0
5.0
Phillippines
4 4.4
5.0
4.0
46.333
47
47
51.31
47
55
Bra azil
-4 4.5
-4.0
-3.5
3.477
3.6
3.5 3
3.84
3.5
4.0
Mex xico
-2 2.1
-2.0
-2.0
16.399
15.5
15 5.0
18.15
15.5
17.5
Arg gentina
-0 0.9
-1.5
-1.5
9.255
10.6
12 2.8
10.24
10.5
14.5
Ven nezuela
0 0.8
-1.5
-1.5
6.299
6.3
6.3 6
6.97
6.5
7.0
Colo ombia
-5 5.2
-7.0
-5.0
29922
3000
3100
3313
3000
3550
Chile
-1 1.2
-1.0
-0.5
6899
630
650 6
763
630
750
Perru
-4 4.0
-4.5
-4.0
3.255
3.2
3.3 3
3.59
3.0
3.5
Turrkey
-5 5.8
-5.5
-6.0
2.855
2.9
2.9 2
3.16
3.0
3.5
Sou uth Africa
-5 5.4
-5.0
-5.0
12.877
14.26 12.2 12 2.2 Exchange rate EUR/USD E Exchange rate USD/EUR U
12.0 1.00 1.00
14.0 1.15 0.87
Sou uth Korea Taiw w an Hon ng Kong
Sing gapore
**Fo orec asts for GDP gro owth, govt balanc e, current ac count and FX are rounded So urce: u A B N A M RO Gro up Eco no mics, EIU, Euro pean Co mmissio n