Global Economic Forecasts
Group Economics Macro Research
18 August 2015
18/08/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
1.5
2.4
2.7
3.1
1.6
1.6
0.4
2.4
7.4
6.2
5.2
4.7
Japan
1.6
-0.1
1.0
1.2
0.3
2.8
0.7
1.4
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4 10.5
Eurozone
2016E
-0.3
0.9
1.5
2.2
1.3
0.5
0.2
1.5
12.0
11.6
11.1
Germany
0.4
1.6
1.8
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.6
1.8
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.2
France
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.3
1.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
9.9
Italy
-1.9
-0.4
0.3
0.9
1.3
0.2
-0.3
0.2
12.1
12.7
12.5
12.6
Spain
-1.2
1.4
3.1
2.9
1.4
-0.2
-0.2
1.3
26.1
24.4
22.3
20.1
The Netherlands
-0.4
1.0
2.3
2.4
2.6
0.3
0.4
1.5
7.3
7.4
6.9
6.5
Belgium
0.3
1.1
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
1.6
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.2
Austria
0.2
0.3
0.8
1.9
2.1
1.5
1.1
1.8
5.3
5.6
5.9
5.7
Finland
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
2.2
1.2
0.2
1.4
8.2
8.7
9.4
9.2
Greece
-4.4
0.7
-1.5
-4.5
-0.9
-1.4
-1.4
-0.2
27.5
26.5
26.2
28.1
Portugal
-1.4
0.9
1.9
2.2
0.4
-0.2
0.5
1.5
16.4
14.1
12.6
11.8
0.2
5.3
5.0
3.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.7
13.1
11.0
9.5
8.5
UK
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.1
1.9
7.5
6.1
5.3
5.2
Sweden
1.3
1.1
1.6
2.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.0
8.2
7.9
6.5
6.0
Denmark
-0.5
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.7
1.8
5.6
4.9
4.7
4.5
1.7
1.5
0.8
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-1.5
-0.6
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.6
Ireland
Switzerland Norway
2.0
2.2
1.4
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.0
Canada
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.0
2.0
0.5
2.1
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.0
Australia
2.8
2.9
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.7
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.0
New Zealand
2.7
3.5
2.9
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.0
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.8
2016E
World World trade
3.1
3.3
3.1
3.8
2.6
3.3
2.0
4.5
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Government debt (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
72
74
75
77
Japan
0.8
0.5
2.2
2.0
-8.3
-7.0
-6.5
-6.3
243
247
243
240
Eurozone
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.5
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-1.9
91
92
93
92
6.9
7.6
8.0
7.6
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.7
77
75
71
68
-2.0
-1.7
-1.2
-1.5
-4.1
-4.0
-3.8
-3.5
92
95
97
98
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
-2.8
-3.0
-2.9
-2.9
128
132
134
134 101
US
Germany France Italy Spain
1.5
0.6
1.1
1.0
-6.8
-5.8
-4.2
-3.3
92
98
100
The Netherlands
11.0
10.8
10.4
10.0
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-1.5
68
68
67
67
Belgium
-1.5
0.4
2.0
2.1
-2.9
-3.2
-3.0
-2.8
104
107
107
106
Austria
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
-2.0
-1.8
81
85
87
86
Finland
-1.9
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
-2.5
-3.2
-3.5
-3.2
56
59
64
65
Greece
0.6
0.9
2.0
4.0
-12.3
-3.5
-4.0
-3.5
175
177
200
200
Portugal
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.3
-4.8
-4.5
-3.7
-2.8
130
130
129
127
Ireland UK
4.4
6.0
6.0
5.5
-5.8
-4.1
-3.0
-3.0
123
110
110
105
-4.2
-3.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.8
-5.4
-4.4
-3.4
87
89
90
90
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics