Global Economic Forecasts
Group Economics Macro Research
23 September 2015
23/09/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
1.5
2.4
2.7
2.9
1.6
1.6
0.2
2.1
7.4
6.2
5.2
4.7
Japan
1.6
-0.1
0.7
1.2
0.3
2.8
0.7
1.0
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4 10.5
Eurozone
2016E
-0.3
0.9
1.6
2.0
1.3
0.5
0.1
1.4
12.0
11.6
11.1
Germany
0.4
1.6
1.8
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.4
1.7
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.2
France
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.3
1.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
9.9
Italy
-1.9
-0.4
0.3
0.9
1.3
0.2
-0.3
0.2
12.1
12.7
12.5
12.6
Spain
-1.2
1.4
3.1
2.9
1.4
-0.2
-0.2
1.3
26.1
24.5
22.3
20.1
The Netherlands
-0.4
1.0
2.2
2.5
2.6
0.3
0.4
1.4
7.3
7.4
6.9
6.4
Belgium
0.3
1.1
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
1.6
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.2
Austria
0.2
0.3
0.8
1.9
2.1
1.5
1.1
1.8
5.3
5.6
5.9
5.7
Finland
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
2.2
1.2
0.2
1.4
8.2
8.7
9.4
9.2
Greece
-4.4
0.7
-1.5
-4.5
-0.9
-1.4
-1.4
-0.2
27.5
26.5
26.2
28.1
Portugal
-1.4
0.9
1.9
2.2
0.4
-0.2
0.5
1.5
16.4
14.1
12.6
11.8
0.2
5.3
5.0
3.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.7
13.1
11.0
9.5
8.5
UK
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.1
1.9
7.5
6.1
5.3
5.2
Sweden
1.3
1.1
2.5
2.7
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.0
8.2
7.9
7.6
7.3
Denmark
-0.5
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.7
1.8
5.6
4.9
4.7
4.5
1.7
1.5
0.8
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-1.5
-0.6
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.6
Ireland
Switzerland Norway
2.0
2.2
1.4
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.0
Canada
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.0
2.0
0.5
2.1
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.0
Australia
2.8
2.9
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.7
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.0
New Zealand
2.7
3.5
2.9
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.0
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.7
2016E
World World trade
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.5
2.6
3.3
2.0
4.0
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Government debt (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
-2.0
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
72
74
75
77
Japan
0.8
0.5
3.0
3.5
-8.5
-7.7
-6.5
-6.3
243
247
243
240
Eurozone
2.6
2.9
3.4
3.4
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-1.9
91
92
93
92
6.9
7.6
8.0
7.6
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.7
77
75
71
68
-2.0
-1.7
-1.2
-1.5
-4.1
-4.0
-3.8
-3.5
92
95
97
98
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
-2.8
-3.0
-2.9
-2.9
128
132
134
134 101
US
Germany France Italy Spain
1.5
0.6
1.1
1.0
-6.8
-5.8
-4.2
-3.3
92
98
100
The Netherlands
11.0
10.8
11.1
10.6
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-1.5
68
68
67
66
Belgium
-1.5
0.4
2.0
2.1
-2.9
-3.2
-3.0
-2.8
104
107
107
106
Austria
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
-2.0
-1.8
81
85
87
86
Finland
-1.9
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
-2.5
-3.2
-3.5
-3.2
56
59
64
65
Greece
0.6
0.9
2.0
4.0
-12.3
-3.5
-4.0
-3.5
175
177
200
200
Portugal
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.3
-4.8
-4.5
-3.7
-2.8
130
130
129
127
Ireland UK
4.4
6.0
6.0
5.5
-5.8
-4.1
-3.0
-3.0
123
110
110
105
-4.2
-3.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.8
-5.4
-4.4
-3.4
87
89
90
90
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
2
Global Economic Forecasts – 23 September 2015
23/09/2015
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
Emerging Asia
6.5
6.3
6.2
6.0
4.6
3.5
2.5
2016E 3.1
Emerging Europe
1.8
1.3
-0.9
1.8
5.3
6.3
11.2
6.0
Latin America
2.4
1.0
-0.1
0.9
9.0
12.8
15.4
12.0
Middle East / North Africa
1.6
2.7
2.6
3.8
12.8
7.1
7.1
6.7
EM Total
4.7
4.4
3.8
4.4
6.4
5.8
6.2
5.3
Eurozone
-0.3
0.9
1.6
2.0
1.3
0.5
0.1
1.4
US
1.5
2.4
2.7
2.9
1.6
1.6
0.2
2.1
World
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.5
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.8
China
7.7
7.3
7.0
6.5
2.6
2.0
1.5
2.0
India
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.5
10.7
6.7
5.0
5.5
Turkey
4.1
2.9
3.0
3.0
7.5
8.9
7.5
7.0
Russia
1.3
0.6
-4.0
0.5
6.8
7.8
15.0
7.0
Brazil
2.7
0.2
-2.0
-1.0
6.2
6.3
9.0
6.1
2016E
Emerging economies*
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
1.2
1.8
2.5
2.0
-2.5
-2.2
-2.5
-2.5
Emerging Europe
-1.3
0.1
1.0
0.5
-1.6
-1.5
-3.0
-2.5
Latin America
-2.8
-2.9
-3.0
-3.0
-2.8
-4.8
-6.0
-4.5
8.8
5.3
-2.5
-1.0
0.7
-3.0
-8.5
-5.5
Emerging Asia
Middle East / North Africa Eurozone US
2.6
2.9
3.4
3.4
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-1.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
-2.0
-4.1
-2.8
-2.5
-2.2
Emerging economies* China
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.5
-1.9
-1.8
-2.5
-3.0
India
-2.6
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
-4.4
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
Turkey
-7.9
-5.8
-6.0
-6.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
Russia
1.7
3.2
5.0
4.0
-0.5
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
-4.0
-4.4
-3.5
-3.0
-2.9
-6.3
-7.5
-6.0
Brazil
* 2015 and 2016 for GDP growth, current account and b udget deficit are rounded. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
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3
Global Economic Forecasts – 23 September 2015
KEY RATES FORECASTS 23/09/2015
Official policy rate (%, eop)
3m interbank rate (%, eop)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
0.25
0.25
0.50
1.50
0.2
0.3
0.6
2016E 1.6
Japan
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2 0.0
Eurozone
0.25
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.0
UK
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.7
Sweden
0.75
0.00
-0.50
-0.50
0.8
0.3
-0.5
-0.3
Denmark
0.20
0.20
-1.00
-1.00
-0.2
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
-0.75
-0.75
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
Norway
1.50
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.5
1.5
0.8
1.3
Canada
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
1.1
1.2
0.5
1.0
Australia
2.50
2.50
1.75
2.25
2.6
2.7
2.0
2.5
New Zealand
2.50
3.50
2.75
3.00
2.7
3.7
3.0
3.2
10y government bond yields (%, eop)
Spread versus Bunds (% points)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2013
2014
2015E
US
3.0
2.2
2.3
2.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
2016E 0.3
France
Japan
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.0
2.3
1.4
1.0
0.5
Italy Spain
Eurozone (Bunds)
1.9
0.5
0.5
1.4
2.2
1.3
0.9
0.3
UK
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
The Netherlands
Sweden
2.5
1.2
1.3
2.0
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
Belgium
Denmark
2.0
0.9
0.8
1.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Austria
Switzerland
1.0
0.4
-0.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Finland
Norway
3.0
2.3
1.8
2.5
6.5
7.3
9.0
4.5
Greece
Canada
2.8
2.1
2.0
2.8
4.1
2.4
1.5
0.8
Portugal
Australia
4.3
3.3
2.5
3.5
1.7
0.8
1.0
0.5
Ireland
New Zealand
4.7
4.1
3.5
4.0
Exchange rates (versus USD, eop)* 2013
2014
2015E
Exchange rates (versus EUR, eop)* 2016E
USD
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1.38
1.21
1.00
1.10
EUR/USD
141
145
128
149
EUR/JPY EUR/GBP
USD/JPY
103
120
128
135
USD/EUR
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.91
GBP/USD
1.66
1.51
1.49
1.49
0.83
0.80
0.67
0.74
USD/SEK
6.35
7.77
9.5
8.6
8.75
9.40
9.5
9.5
EUR/SEK
USD/DKK
5.41
6.15
7.1
7.8
7.46
7.44
7.5
7.5
EUR/DKK
USD/CHF
0.91
0.99
1.1
1.0
1.25
1.20
1.1
1.2
EUR/CHF
USD/NOK
5.88
7.56
9.0
7.3
8.10
9.15
9.0
8.0
EUR/NOK
USD/CAD
1.07
1.16
1.4
1.5
1.47
1.40
1.4
1.6
EUR/CAD
AUD/USD
0.89
0.83
0.7
0.6
1.55
1.46
1.5
1.8
EUR/AUD
NZD/USD
0.82
0.77
0.6
0.6
1.68
1.57
1.7
2.0
EUR/NZD
USD/CNY
6.10
6.20
6.6
6.8
8.41
7.51
6.6
7.4
EUR/CNY
USD/INR
61.90
63.33
66
68
85.29
81.06
66
75
EUR/INR
USD/TRY
2.14
2.32
3.1
2.9
2.94
2.81
3.1
3.3
EUR/TRY
USD/RUB
32.73
60.74
60
55
45.10
73.50
60
61
EUR/RUB
USD/BRL
2.34
2.66
4.0
3.8
3.23
3.21
4.0
4.3
EUR/BRL
*2015 and 2016 are rounded figures Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
4
Global Economic Forecasts – 23 September 2015
Update: 23/09/15
Nom inal GDP
GDP grow th (% yoy)
EUR bn
Inflation (CPI, % yoy avg)
Forecast**:
Govt balance (% GDP)
Forecast: 2016
Governm ent debt (% GDP)
Forecast**: 2016
2014
2015
Forecast:
2014
2014
2015
2014
2015
2016
Russia
3447
0.6
-4.0
Poland
883
3.5
3.5
0.5
7.8
15.0
7.0
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
10
13
15
3.5
0.0
-0.5
1.5
-3.2
-3.0
-2.5
50
51
51
Czech Rep
301
2.0
3.5
3.0
0.4
1.0
1.5
-2.0
-2.0
-1.5
43
42
42
Hungary
223
3.6
3.0
2.5
-0.2
0.0
2.5
-2.6
-2.5
-2.0
77
75
74
Romania
371
2.8
3.0
3.5
1.4
0.2
0.9
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
40
40
42
Bulgaria
114
1.7
2.0
2.5
-1.4
0.7
2.0
-2.8
-3.0
-3.0
28
30
31
China
15235
7.3
7.0
6.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
-1.8
-2.5
-3.0
15
17
18
India
6253
7.3
7.5
7.5
6.7
5.0
5.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
51
48
47
South Korea
1601
3.3
2.5
3.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
34
34
33
Taiw an
934
3.8
2.0
3.0
1.2
-0.5
1.5
-0.8
-1.0
-0.5
33
33
33
Hong Kong
366
2.5
2.5
2.5
4.4
3.5
3.0
0.8
0.5
-0.5
40
39
41
Indonesia
2344
5.0
5.0
5.0
6.4
6.5
5.0
-2.2
-2.5
-2.0
26
28
29
Thailand
1003
0.9
3.0
3.5
1.9
-0.5
2.0
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
46
50
54
Singapore
407
2.9
2.0
2.5
1.0
0.0
1.5
1.3
-1.0
0.5
99
102
102
Malaysia
674
6.0
5.0
4.5
3.1
2.0
3.0
-3.4
-3.5
-3.5
53
54
55
Philippines
591
6.1
5.5
6.0
4.2
1.5
3.0
-0.6
-2.0
-2.0
45
46
46
Brazil
3080
0.2
-2.0
-1.0
6.3
9.0
6.1
-6.3
-7.5
-6.0
59
66
70
Mexico
1971
2.1
2.5
3.0
4.0
2.7
3.5
-3.2
-3.5
-3.0
42
45
47
Argentina
889
0.5
0.5
2.0
38
27
26
-2.5
-4.5
-3.0
43
46
45
Venezuela
538
-2.9
-6.0
-4.0
62
104
73
-13.2
-17.5
-12.0
53
55
56
Colombia
565
4.6
2.5
3.5
2.9
4.4
3.5
-2.0
-2.0
-2.5
46
47
47
Chile
368
1.9
2.0
3.0
4.4
4.4
4.4
-1.6
-3.0
-2.0
15
17
19
Peru
300
2.4
3.0
4.0
3.2
3.4
3.3
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
20
19
18
Turkey
1350
2.9
3.0
3.0
8.9
7.5
7.0
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
35
33
33
South Africa
659
1.5
2.0
3.0
6.1
4.8
5.1
-3.9
-4.5
-3.5
47
48
47
Macroeconomic forecasts and exchange rates (year end) Current account (% GDP) Forecast**: 2014
2015
Exchange rate against USD:
Exchange rate against EUR:
Recent
Recent
2016 23/09/2015
Forecast**: 2015
2016 23/09/2015
Forecast**: 2015
2016
Russia
3.2
5.0
4.0
66.54
60
55
74.09
60
61
Poland
-1.4
-2.0
-2.0
3.78
4.2
3.5
4.21
4.0
4.0
Czech Rep
-0.9
0.5
0.5
24.35
28
24
27.11
28
27
Hungary
4.4
5.5
6.0
280
320
280
312
320
310
Romania
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
3.98
4.5
4.3
4.43
4.5
4.5
Bulgaria
0.9
1.5
1.0
1.76
2.0
1.8
1.96
2.0
3.0
China
2.1
2.5
2.5
6.38
6.6
6.8
7.10
6.5
7.5
India*
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
65.90
66
68
73.38
66
75
6.3
6.0
5.5
1179
1250
1300
1313
1250
1450
12.3
13.0
11.0
32.62
33
34
36.32
33
37
1.9
2.5
1.0
7.75
7.8
7.8
8.63
8.0
8.5
Indonesia
-3.1
-2.0
-2.5
14497
15000
15600
16141
15000
17150
Thailand
3.2
2.5
1.5
35.98
36
37
40.06
36
41
19.1
20.0
19.0
1.42
1.5
1.5
1.58
1.5
1.5
Malaysia
4.3
1.5
2.0
4.30
4.4
4.3
4.78
4.5
4.5
Philippines
4.4
5.0
4.0
46.59
47
48
51.87
47
52
Brazil
-4.4
-3.5
-3.0
4.05
4.0
3.8
4.51
4.0
4.0
Mexico
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
16.88
17.0
16.0
18.79
17.0
17.5
Argentina
-0.9
-2.0
-2.0
9.39
10.6
13.1
10.45
10.5
14.5
Venezuela
0.8
-1.5
-1.5
6.28
6.3
6.3
7.00
6.5
7.0
-5.2
-7.0
-5.5
3073
3000
3100
3421
3000
3400
South Korea Taiw an Hong Kong
Singapore
Colombia Chile
-1.2
-0.5
-1.0
699
700
660
778
700
730
Peru
-4.0
-4.5
-4.0
3.21
3.2
3.3
3.58
3.0
3.5
Turkey
-5.8
-6.0
-6.0
3.03
3.1
2.9
3.38
3.0
3.0
South Africa
-5.4
-5.0
-5.0
13.72
15.28 14.0 13.2 Exchange rate EUR/USD Exchange rate USD/EUR
14.0 1.00 1.00
14.5 1.10 0.91
**Forec asts for GDP growth, govt balance, c urrent acc ount and FX are rounded So urce: A B N A M RO Gro up Eco no mics, EIU, Euro pean Co mmissio n
2014
2015
2016