Em fx weekly 20 august 2015

EM FX Weekly From bad to worse

Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research Georgette Boele, tel,+31 20 6297789 Roy Teo +65 6597 8616

20 August 2015     

Sell-off in commodities drags down EM FX… …as well as risks to growth outlook and political uncertainty China’s shift in FX regime has pressured others to follow More EM FX weakness ahead mainly because of the Fed The inclusion of the yuan in the SDR basket will be delayed until at least October 2016

Sell-off in commodities drag down EM FX…

speculative grade has not disappeared. Therefore, the real is

This year the performance of emerging market (EM) currencies

one of the worst performing currencies so far this year. Only

has gone from bad to worse. What explains the fall and what

the Ukrainian Hryvnia and the Kazakhstan’s tenge have

happens next? One factor explaining the weakness is the

weakened more. In Turkey, coalition talks broke down and

substantial drop in commodity prices, which has hurt major

early elections are quite possible. This has sent the lira to a

commodity exporters (CRB has dropped by around 16% year-

new low this year.

to-date). Renewed weakness in oil prices driven by oversupply has weighed on the currencies of oil exporters such as the

Change in currency regimes?

Russian ruble, the Mexican peso and the Colombian peso.

Last but not least, the change in FX policy in China has also unnerved EM currencies, especially currencies of countries

Performance

that export much to China or compete with China on third markets (see our FX watch – Impact of yuan devaluation). The

In % with US dollar as basis

UAH KZT BRL COP TRY MYR CLP MXN ZAR IDR RUB PEN ARS KRW THB HUF PLN SGD CZK VND PHP INR CNH CNY TWD -45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

year-to-date

-15

-10

-5

0

5

5-days

Source: Bloomberg

Mexican peso also falls in this category. This week Vietnam (exporter of for example crude oil, rice and coffee) devaluated the dong for the third time this year and widened the currency’s trading band. Today, Kazakhstan (exporter of oil & gas, ferrous metals and grain) decided to change its currency regime to a free-float and pursue an inflation-targeting regime. Currently, financial markets are speculating that Saudi Arabia may change its FX regime as well, creating downward pressure of the Saudi Riyal.

More weakness ahead Overall, we expect further weakness in EM FX in coming months, especially Asia FX, the Brazilian real and Turkish lira.

The start of the Fed’s tightening cycle will be the main negative going forward. On the other hand, an eventual recovery in oil prices should provide some respite for the Russian ruble and the Mexican peso (as well as stronger domestic growth).

…as well as risks to growth outlook and political uncertainty

Stable Chinese yuan stabilize sentiment in Asian FX

In addition, the domestic demand outlook has deteriorated in

Since 14 August, the yuan reference rate has been steady as

most EM economies. Risks to China’s economic growth have

the onshore yuan rate converged to the new reference rate. As

been most in focus. This has sent ripples to the overall EM

a result, volatility expectations and the demand to hedge

outlook, weighing on currencies. Moreover, political uncertainty

weakness in the yuan has subsided. This had a similar positive

has also been a major driver of weakness, for instance in the

spill over effect on other Asian currencies. On 19 August, the

Brazilian real and the Turkish lira. The worsening fiscal and

IMF announced that the inclusion of the yuan in the SDR

political woes in Brazil make it harder to break out of the

basket will be delayed until at least October 2016. This is to

vicious economic spiral and the risk of downgrade by S&P to

allow users more time to make necessary adjustments. After

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EM FX Weekly - From bad to worse

the announcement, yuan forwards were sold off, implying larger depreciation expectations as the potential demand from reserve managers is likely to be more subdued before the yuan is included in the SDR basket. Separately, sentiment in the Thai baht (THB) was weak after bomb blasts in Bangkok.

More headwinds to the economy are likely as tourism is likely to be impacted in the near term.

CNH discount to CNY to persist into September Next week, a gauge of China’s manufacturing sector (published on 21 August) will be crucial for the direction in the yuan. A weak print is likely to increase market speculation that a weaker yuan is needed to support the economy. As a result we expect the contagion effect to impact Asian currencies negatively. The offshore yuan (CNH) discount to the onshore yuan (CNY) is likely to widen. We expect this discount to persist well into September, due to continued uncertainty surrounding China’s economic growth and Fed’s interest rate lift-off date. We expect corporates with foreign currency liabilities to hedge during periods when the yuan strengthens.

Hence any gains in the yuan are unlikely to be sustainable. We maintain our year end yuan forecast of 6.55 against the US dollar.

ABN AMRO emerging market currency forecasts USD/CNY (onshore) USD/CNH (offshore) USD/INR USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/THB USD/TWD USD/IDR USD/RUB USD/TRY USD/ZAR EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/HUF USD/BRL USD/MXN USD/CLP

20-Aug 6.39 6.45 65.4 1,185 1.40 35.63 32.57 13,883 67 2.98 12.98 4.20 27.50 313 3.49 16.71 697

Q3 2015 Q4 2015 6.50 6.55 6.55 6.55 66 66 1,200 1,240 1.43 1.46 36.00 36.40 32.80 33.40 14,000 14,300 65 50 2.90 2.85 12.20 12.20 3.95 3.90 27.50 27.50 315 320 3.50 3.60 15.50 15.50 630 630

Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics

Q1 2016 6.60 6.60 67 1,250 1.47 36.60 33.50 14,400 48 2.85 12.20 3.85 27.40 320 3.60 15.25 635

Q2 2016 6.65 6.65 67 1,270 1.49 36.80 33.70 14,600 47 2.85 12.20 3.85 27.25 325 3.55 15.25 640

Q3 2016 6.70 6.70 68 1,290 1.50 37.00 33.80 14,800 46 2.85 12.20 3.85 27.00 325 3.55 15.00 645

Q4 2016 6.75 6.75 68 1,300 1.52 37.30 34.00 15,000 45 2.85 12.20 3.85 26.75 330 3.50 15.00 650

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EM FX Weekly - From bad to worse

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