Fx flash q2 cpi not a game changer 27 july 2016

FX Flash

Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research

27 July 2016

Q2 CPI not a game changer for AUD  AUD firms after Q2 CPI was stronger than expected

Roy Teo

 Further RBA easing in August still likely

Senior FX Strategist Tel: +65 6597 8616 roy.teo@sg.abnamro.com

AUD firms after Q2 CPI was stronger than expected The Australian dollar (AUD) rose by 50 pips to 0.7565 after Australia’s inflation in the second quarter was stronger than expected. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation held steady at 1.7%yoy versus market expectations of 1.5%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services. Non-tradable inflation rose 1.6% yoy, the third consecutive quarter of decline which is the lowest level since the second quarter of 1999. Tradable inflation recorded no movement at 0% over the last twelve months.

Inflation remains below RBA’s 2-3% target range %

Speculators remain net long AUD Number of contracts

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Mar-11

150000 100000 50000 0 -50000

Jun-12

Sep-13

CPI non tradables YoY %

Dec-14

Mar-16

-100000 Jan-11

RBA trimmed mean YoY%

Jul-13

Oct-14

Jan-16

CFTC net non-commerical AUD futures positions

CPI tradables YoY% Source: ABS

Apr-12

CFTC non-commerical long AUD futures positions

Source: CFTC

Further RBA easing in August still likely We maintain our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to cut the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 1.5% at the next monetary policy meeting on 2 August. Despite the recent decline in the AUD, it remains 2% stronger against currencies of Australia’s main trading partners since the RBA’s last monetary policy meeting on 7 June. The strength in the AUD TWI, if sustained, is likely to push tradable inflation lower and weigh on service exports, which is highly sensitive to movements in the exchange rate. Slower house price

Insights.abnamro.nl/en

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FX Flash - Q2 CPI not a game changer for AUD - 27 July 2016

gains and subdued wage growth are also likely to weigh on non-tradable inflation. As financial markets are pricing in only about 50% probability (down from 60% before the CPI numbers) that the RBA will ease next month, a weaker AUD is likely as speculative long AUD positions are liquidated. The AUD has failed to close above 0.7650 since late June.

We favour fading any recovery in the AUD for downside target of around 0.72 in the coming months.

Find out more about Group Economics at: https://insights.abnamro.nl/en/

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FX Flash - Q2 CPI not a game changer for AUD - 27 July 2016