Daily Insight
Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research
09 November 2015
Spain’s Catalan struggle Aline Schuiling
Spain’s Catalan regional parliament set for independence roadmap…
Senior Economist
…obstacles mean that the process is unlikely to succeed
Tel: +31 20 343 5606
ECB officials tell Reuters that there is consensus for deposit rate cut,
aline.schuiling@nl.abnamro.com
while QE options still in discussion Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research
Spain’s Catalan regional parliament starts walking the road to independence
Tel: +31 20 343 5616
The regional parliament of Catalonia, representing a region that has a share of around
nick.kounis@nl.abnamro.com
19% in Spain’s GDP, voted in favour of a resolution to set up a roadmap for an independence process on Monday. The pro-independence parties Junts pel Si and CUP won a majority of the seats in the Catalan parliament during the 27 September regional election, but did not win the majority of votes. The parties of the pro-independence group are on opposite ends of the political spectrum and the only issue binding them together is the pursuit for independence. Therefore, it is no surprise that the item was on the agenda at the first parliamentary session following the elections. According to reports in the press, the text of the resolution gives parliament 30 days to start working on a new Catalan constitution, which would later be voted on in a referendum. Moreover, the regional parliament should begin establishing a new tax office and social security administration. Catalan independence does not seem likely That said, the regional parliament’s quest for independence will likely fail. To start with, the fact that the pro-independence parities did not get the majority of the votes during the 27 September elections is limiting the chances of a “yes” victory during an independence referendum. Moreover, Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy has vowed to take legal action against the Catalan parliament if it were to declare independence, while Spain’s constitutional court has already stated that any declaration of independence would be illegal. Finally, European leaders have warned that Catalonia would have to ask to be readmitted to the EU following independence, while countries such as Belgium, Italy and the UK, which have pro-independence regions within their own borders as well, will probably hinder re-entrance. ECB consensus around deposit rate cut – QE discussions ongoing Meanwhile, the debate on the ECB’s next steps continues to rage. Reuters gave an update on the issue, quoting a number of unnamed Governing Council members. According to the officials, a consensus was forming for the option of a cut in the deposit
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