Group Economics
Daily Insight
Macro & Financial Markets Research Aline Schuiling & Maritza Cabezas
Eurozone GDP growth picks up
+ 31 20 343 5606
14 May 2015
GDP growth in the eurozone picked up in the first quarter of this year … … growth was somewhat below the forecasts, but the report held some positive surprises as well US consumers cautious, but we expect a breakthrough in consumer spending in the coming months
Eurozone GDP growth picked up in Q1 … GDP expanded by 0.4% qoq in the first quarter of this year, up
GDP growth 2015 Q1 selective eurozone countries
from 0.3% in 2014Q4. The outcome was below the consensus
% qoq
and our own forecast. Still, the report held some positive surprises as well. Growth in France (0.6% qoq) and Italy
l
1.0
Eurozone
(0.3%) was stronger than expected, after both countries had significantly underperformed the eurozone last year. Italy’s
0.5
economy moved out of recession, with GDP recording its first expansion after five consecutive quarters of contraction or stabilization. Another surprise was Greece. Although the
0.0
economy moved back into recession, the decline was smaller in Q1 (-0.2%) than in Q4 (-0.4%), despite the rising uncertainties about a new deal with Europe and the IMF and
-0.5 ES
FR
NL
PT
IT
DE
BE
AT
FN
GR
Grexit worries. On the other side of the spectrum, the data for Germany (0.3%) and the Netherlands (0.4%) came in lower
Source: Bloomberg
than expected, although both countries had registered very high growth rates in Q4 and the slowdown probably partly
US consumers cautious
reflects the normal pattern of volatility in the quarterly numbers.
Yesterday’s April retail sales report showed that consumer spending failed to pick up as expected, although March’s data
… on the back of exports and consumption
was upwardly revised from an already strong level. At the
Although the details of growth have not yet been published, we
same time, February’s retail sales were slightly downwardly
think that net exports contributed positively to growth. The
revised. Headline retail sales were flat in April following a
weak euro should have supported exports, although the
revised 1.1% gain in March. The retail sales control component
temporary slowdown in the US economy in Q1 might have
(ex. autos, gas, building materials and food services), which is
limited the expansion. Still, eurozone industrial production,
direct input for GDP was also flat, down from 0.5% the
which tends to move roughly in line with exports, accelerated
previous month. Looking at the details, the largest decline was
in Q1. Moreover, growth in car registrations and retail sales
in vehicles and furniture, while spending on health was strong.
suggest that private consumption growth was a bit higher in Q1
Certain discretionary spending components, including clothing,
than in Q4. Finally, fixed investment probably expanded
sport goods and restaurants remained firm.
moderately in Q1, roughly in line with growth in Q4. Breakthrough in consumer spending still to come Further increase in growth expected
Until now, consumers have been saving much of the gains
The eurozone economy should gather pace in the coming
from the cheaper gasoline. Gasoline prices increased in April
quarters. The impact of the weak euro and low energy prices
but remain below year-ago levels, suggesting that consumers
will continue to work its way through the economy with a delay.
are still benefitting from lower fuel costs . We expect to see a
Meanwhile monetary conditions are expected to ease further
breakthrough in consumer spending in the coming months as
on the back of the ECB’s QE programme and we expect more
households will eventually use the windfall gains from lower
euro weakness in the second half of this year. Moreover, bank
energy costs. Moreover, consumer confidence remains at high
lending conditions have eased in the past few quarters, while
levels, while the labour market remains strong.
both the housing market and the labour market have bottomed out and should improve further in the coming quarters.
2
Eurozone GD DP growth pick ks up – 30 April 2015
Financial marketts
F Financial marke ets
Close
Cha ange 1 day Change 5 days Change C YTD
C Currency marketts
C Currency marke ets
12 2/05/2015
E UR-USD X-RAT TE
E EUR/USD
1.1242
0.0445
-0.7154
-7.0909
Ja apanese Yen S pot
U USD/JPY
119.71
0.0919
-0.0919
0.1086
A AUD-USD X-RAT TE
A AUD/USD
0.8048
0.8016
0.9407
-1.4329
U USD-CHF X-RAT TE
U USD/CHF
0.9269
0.0539
-1.0033
7.2284
N NZD-USD X-RAT TE
N NZD/USD
0.7461
1.2760
-0.4536
-4.2725
G GBP-USD X-RAT TE
G GBP/USD
1.5649
-0.3502
2.7377
0.4364
U USD-SGD X-RAT TE
U USD/SGD
1.3289
0.3462
-0.2107
-0.3161
U USD-CAD X-RAT TE
U USD/CAD
1.1973
0.0585
0.4928
-2.9901
B ond markets
B Bond markets
ange 1 day Change 5 days Change C YTD Cha
Close -0.2010
-0.0030
0.0190
-0.1030
G Germany Generic Govt 10Y Y 10-year German n Govt Bond yield
0.6210
-0.0540
0.0350
0.0800
Y Yield curve Germ many
G German Governm ment Bonds 2 2-year 2 German Govt G Bond yield d
Y Yield curve Germ many
0.8220
-0.0510
0.0160
0.1830
U Generic Govt US vt 2 Year Yield 2-year 2 US Treas sury Bond yield
0.5882
-0.0079
-0.0469
-0.0763
U Generic Govt US vt 10 Year Yiel 10-year US Trea asury Bond yield d
2.2236
-0.0253
-0.0195
0.0524
Y Yield curve US
Y Yield curve US
1.6354
-0.0174
0.0274
0.1287
U USD SWAP SEM MI 30/360 2YRUS U 2-year swap p rates
0.8590
-0.0148
-0.0425
-0.0353
U USD SWAP SEM MI 30/360 10YU US 10-year swa ap rates
2.2913
-0.0293
-0.0335
0.0052
1.4323
-0.0145
0.0090
0.0405
U swap curve US E UR SWAP ANN NUAL
2 YRE EU 2-year swap p rates
0.1045
-0.0045
0.0035
-0.0705
NUAL E UR SWAP ANN
10 YREU E 10-year swa ap rates
0.8880
-0.0580
-0.0208
0.0760
0.7835
-0.0535
-0.0243
0.1465
E swap curve EU E uribor 3 Month ACT/360
E Euribor 3 Month ACT/360
-0.0090
0.0000
-0.0010
-0.0870
CE LIBOR USD 3 Month IC
IC CE LIBOR USD D 3 Month
0.2766
-0.0033
-0.0032
0.0210
JP PMorgan EMBI Plus SovereigJ JPMorgan EMB I Plus Sovereign S
366.8100
8.1400
-1.4600
-20.6300
E quity markets
E Equity markets
Close
N NIKKEI 225
N Nikkei 225
19,765
0.71
1.19
13.26
H HANG SENG INDEX
H Hang Seng Inde ex
27,249
-0.58
-1.42
15.44
13,860
-0.81
-0.98
15.64
H HANG SENG CH HINA ENT INDH Hang Seng Chin na Enterprises Index
Chan nge 1 day %Change 5 days %Ch hange YTD%
S &P/ASX 200 IN NDEX
A Australian Stock k Exchange S& &P/ASX 200
5,715
0.71
0.40
5.62
dex STI S traits Times Ind
S Singapore Straitts Times Index
3,453
0.31
-0.19
2.62
P E uro Stoxx 50 Pr
E Euro Stoxx 50 In ndex
3,596
0.63
1.06
14.28
X S &P 500 INDEX
S S&P 500 Index
2,099
-0.29
0.46
1.95
M MSCI AC World Daily TR GrosM MSCI World Daiily Total Return Gross USD
812
-0.27
0.51
5.77
A AEX-Index
491
0.32
2.59
15.57
14
0.07
-3.14
-27.81
A AEX Index
C CBOE SPX VOL LATILITY INDXC Chicago Board Options O Exchan nge Volatility C Commodity mark kets
C Commodity marrkets
TR R/CC CRB TR Index I
R Reuters/Jefferies s CRB Total Re eturn
G GOLD SPOT $/O OZ
G Gold spot USD/ Oz
G Generic 1st 'CL' Future
Close
Chan nge 1 day %Change 5 days %Ch hange YTD%
232
1.24
0.11
0.50
1,197
0.25
0.39
1.01
G Generic first NY MEX Crude Light future
61
0.91
0.61
15.07
G Generic 1st 'CO' Future
G Generic first Bre ent Crude Oil futture
67
0.78
-0.58
17.53
LM ME COPPER
L LME Copper 3 Months M Rolling Forward
6,440
1.18
-0.62
2.22
479
0.63
3.29
-18.74
3MO ($)
G Generic 1st 'W ' Future So ource: Bloomberg
G Generic first Wh heat future Chic ago Board o
3
Eurozone GD DP growth pick ks up – 30 April 2015
Day
Da ate
Time
Country
Key Economic Indicators and Eve ents
P Period
Latest outccome
Consensuss
Saturday
09/05 5/2015
03:30:00
CN
CPI - % yoy
Apr
1.5
1.6
Monday Monday
11/05 5/2015 11/05 5/2015
13:00:00 13:00:00
GB GB
Policy rate - % BoE siize of asset purchasse programme - GBP bn
May 11 M May
0.5 0 375.0
0.5
Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday
12/05 5/2015 12/05 5/2015 12/05 5/2015
14:00:00 15:00:00 16:00:00
IN US US
CPI - % yoy NFIB small s business optim misme - index US Job b Openings by Indusstry
Apr Apr Mar
4.9 96.9 4994
Wednesday W W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday W Wednesday
13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015 13/05 5/2015
07:30:00 07:30:00 07:30:00 07:30:00 08:00:00 08:00:00 09:30:00 10:30:00 10:30:00 11:00:00 11:00:00 14:30:00 16:00:00
CN CN CN CN CN CN FR DE DE NL GB GB EC EC US US
M2 mo oney growth - % yoy Aggreg gate financing - CNY Y bn New lo oans - CNY bn Fixed investments - % yoyy y Industrial production - % yoy Retail sales - % yoy GDP - % qoq CPI - % yoy GDP - %qoq GDP - % qoq ant count unemployyment rate - % Claima Chang ge in claimant countt - thousands Industrial production - % mom m GDP - % qoq Retail sales - % mom ess inventories - % mom Busine
Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr 1Q P Apr F 1Q P 1Q P Apr Apr Mar 1Q A Apr Mar
11.6 6 1181.6 1180 13.5 5.6 10.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 2.3 -20.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 0.3
Thursday T T Thursday T Thursday
14/05 5/2015 14/05 5/2015 14/05 5/2015
08:30:00 14:30:00 14:30:00
IN US US
Wholesale price index - % yoy p index - % mom Prod. prices Prod. prices p index excl foo od and energy - % mom m
Apr Apr Apr
-2.3 0.2 0.2
Friday Friday Friday Friday
15/05 5/2015 15/05 5/2015 15/05 5/2015 15/05 5/2015
14:30:00 15:15:00
US US KR RU
Empire e State PMI - Manuf. general business conditions c - index May Industrial production - % mom m Apr May 15 M Policy rate - % 1Q A GDP - % yoy
-1.2 -0.6 1.75 0.4
12.1 1300.0 860 13.5 5.8 10.4 0.4 0.4 0.6
0.1 0.5
ABN AMRO
0.4 0.6 0.7
-0.4 0.6 0.3
-2.3
-1.0
-2.5
-3.0
So ource: Bloomberg, Reuters, ABN AMR RO Group Econom mics (we provide ow wn forecasts only fo or selected k ey varriables and events))
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