One day solar energy will determine the gas price en def

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Hans van Cleef – Senior Energy Economist ABN AMRO Hendrik Steringa – Researcher, writer

ABN AMRO Energy One day solar energy will determine the gas price “One day solar energy will determine the gas price”. This surprising prophecy, made by a senior strategist of Gasterra several years ago during a presentation at the Energy Convention in Groningen, the Netherlands, has hitherto failed to materialise. Meanwhile, however, shale gas has asserted itself as the main driving force behind the gas price in some regions, notably in the US. But not in Europe. The gas market, unlike the oil market, remains strongly regional and in Europe, where the shale gas revolution has yet to get off the ground, shale gas has so far only had a limited impact on the gas price. Europe must therefore rely mainly on energy saving and renewable energy to influence the demand for, and price of, gas. With renewable energy becoming increasingly prominent in the European energy and climate policy, the question on the table is: can renewable energy one day determine the gas price? And, if so, when? On the eve of the global energy transition That we are on the eve of a fundamental change in the energy world is sufficiently clear by now. The movement towards more sustainable energy is under way. This is due to a combination of a progressively tightening climate and environmental policy, dependence on unreliable regimes, rapid technological developments and falling cost prices of renewables, such as wind and solar. Sooner or later, renewable energy will replace fossil fuels as the main source of energy. The sudden surge in the supply of gas and oil from unconventional sources appears to have postponed this at present. Even so, various reputable organisations remain convinced that renewable energy will take

over from fossil fuels as the main energy source. No so much because of a lack of oil and gas, but rather due to simple economic reasons: an abundant supply and, ultimately, the lower cost of renewables. Or as a Saudi Arabian minister put it several years ago: ‘The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones’ Graph 2: Cost of power generation (in USD per MWh)

Graph 1: New investment in renewable energy (in bln USD)

Source: Economist.com

Source: Economist.com


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