TRADE & COMMODITIES
Coal exporters chasing higher volumes
JUNE 2022
www.drycargomag.com
Richard Scott, Bulk Shipping Analysis
DCi 4
Exporters gained advantages from a global revival in coal import demand last year amid economies and energy markets recovering from the worst effects of the pandemic. In 2022 many coal exporters may continue to see increased volumes, despite expectations for the world economy’s growth being revised downwards. An exception to the generally positive coal export picture is Russia, where signs suggest a large decline could occur. Two prominent influences in particular seem likely to affect the evolution of coal trade during the remainder of this year and into 2023. A more marked deceleration of global economic recovery than previously
expected is now widely foreseen, reflecting inflationary pressures and, in China, pandemic lockdowns causing economy activity to weaken. The second aspect is the war between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in many countries ceasing to buy coal from Russia, the world’s third-largest exporter. Earlier this year it seemed realistic to envisage world seaborne coal trade growing by up to 2% in 2022 as a whole, after a 5% rebound in 2021 from the previous year’s huge reduction. But prospects for further growth have receded. Although a number of importing countries may raise their purchases, others may see declines. Contrasting views for the two
biggest importers suggest higher levels in India and lower volumes in China. Coal supplies on the international market seem set to be constrained this year. However, a possible large-scale downturn in Russia’s exports could be accompanied by offsetting increases by other suppliers, enabling overall trade to remain broadly flat. Currently, supplies look sufficient to satisfy the volume of import demand predicted.
ENERGY DEMAND FOUNDATIONS Events in the past couple of years have demonstrated dramatically how changes in the pace and pattern of global economic activity affect energy consumption and the
