According to SANDAG’s regional growth forecast, most of the projected population growth is expected to take place around these opportunity areas. In fact, two of the areas that will see the largest population increase in Oceanside by 2035 are near existing and planned community centers. These community centers are areas of housing within walking or biking distance of transit stations, and are characterized by low- and mid-residential, office, and commercial buildings. Despite this, some of these areas are not currently served by any parks of recreation facilities, as seen in Figure 3-2. The City should encourage new development in these smart growth areas and should try to provide parks near these new population centers.
3.2 FUTURE CONDITIONS GDA In addition to the existing condition GDA performed in the previous chapter, access distances were calculated for all parks and future parks including special recreation facilities and schools with MOUs. This analysis used 2035 future populations, as projected by SANDAG’s regional growth forecast. For these future conditions, the parks and recreation facilities GDA effort looked at the percentage of future population that will be serviced by the existing community parks, neighborhood parks, recreation centers, school recreation areas with MOUs,
and special use parks. The future percentage of population being serviced by these facilities was evaluated using actual walking, driving, or biking distances utilizing the existing network routes that lead to park and recreation facilities (see Figure 3-3 and Figure 3-4). This analysis indicates those neighborhoods that might be currently adequately serviced by parks and other recreation facilities, but that may experience future deficiencies based on the expected population growth. Additionally, the existing park amenities are analyzed based on a ratio of amenity per future population. Given the current population growth trends and the location of existing facilities, about 24 percent of residents will be served by the 15-minute walkshed for the neighborhood parks and 87 percent of the community will be served by the 5-minute driveshed for parks, community centers, special use parks, and regional parks (see Table 3-2).
3.3 FUTURE CONDITIONS POPULATION BASED STANDARDS (PBS) Amenities that currently exceed the standards are expected to keep meeting them by 2035. However, the facilities that do not meet the level of standards today will have a greater deficiency in the future, as shown in Table 3-3. This type of analysis is import-
Table 3-2: Future Geographic Park Distribution and Population Served Total Acreage
# Population Served 2016
% Population Served 2016
# Population Served 2035
% Population Served 2035
15-Minute Walking Distance (Neighborhood Parks and School Facilities with MOU)
4,278
43,759
24.9%
45,902
24.3%
15-Minute Walking Distance (All Parks)
11,304
108,575
64.0%
119,876
63.6%
5-Minute Driving Distance (Community and Regional Parks)
17,711
150,980
88.9%
164,197
87.1%
5-Minute Driving Distance (All Parks)
18,176
155,697
91.7%
168,434
89.3%
Park Service Area
Park Service Area including parks outside of city limit but still within walk/drivesheds
34
15-Minute Walking Distance (Neighborhood Parks and School Facilities with MOU)
4,457
46,903
26.7%
49,473
26.2%
15-Minute Walking Distance (All Parks)
11,460
110,083
64.8%
121,714
64.6%
5-Minute Driving Distance (Community and Regional Parks)
18,068
153,738
90.6%
166,554
88.3%
5-Minute Driving Distance (All Parks)
18,407
156,386
92.1%
169,164
89.7%
CITY OF OCEANSIDE PARKS & RECREATION MASTER PLAN
