Crecimiento, Equidad e Inflaci贸n una visi贸n cuantitativa Profesor Juan Jovan茅
Panamá: una economía con un alto nivel de crecimiento Tasa de Crecimiento Promedio Anual 2004 – 2012 = 8.3%
Fuente: INEC
Gini A単o
Nacional
Urbano
Rural
2001
0.555
0.499
0.540
2002
0.567
0.515
0.553
2003
0.563
0.507
0.554
2004
0.541
0.484
0.545
2005
0.529
0.480
0.524
2006
0.540
0.484
0.549
2007
0.524
0.471
0.528
2008
0.524
0.466
0.546
2009
0.523
0.475
0.505
2010
0.519
0.469
0.511
2011
0.531
0.485
0.527
Fuente: CEPAL
ΔGINI = β0 + β1TPIB + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS : 2001 -2011
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= ΔGINI GIN
R-SQUARE = 0.0365 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = -0.0840 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.15277E-03 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.12360E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.12221E-02 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = -0.24000E-02 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 30.8593 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS TPIBP
-0.70794E-03
0.1286E-02 -0.5504
0.597
-0.191
-0.1910
1.6106
CONSTANT 0.14654E-02
0.8038E-02 0.1823
0.860
0.064
0.0000
-0.6106
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.8869 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.0966 RHO = -0.13969 RESIDUAL SUM = -0.10408E-16 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.15277E-03 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 0.92117E-01 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.0365 RUNS TEST: 7 RUNS, 4 POS, 0 ZERO, 6 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.8429
TGINI = β0 + β1TPIB + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS: 2002 - 2011
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= TGINI
R-SQUARE = 0.0351 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = -0.0855 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 5.2728 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 2.2963 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 42.182 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = -0.46475 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -21.3865 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS TPIBP
-0.12894
CONSTANT 0.23924
0.2390
-0.5395
0.604
-0.187
-0.1874
1.5148
1.493
0.1602
0.877
0.057
0.0000
-0.5148
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.9105 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.1228 RHO = -0.15538 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.44409E-15 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 5.2728 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 17.076 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.0351 RUNS TEST: 7 RUNS, 4 POS, 0 ZERO, 6 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.8429
La prueba de χ2 muestra que se puede aceptar la hipótesis nula de que la distribución de los ingresos por deciles en el 2010 no es significativamente distinta a la observada en el 2003 DECIL
2003
2010
1
0.73
1.10
0.18753425
2
1.73
2.20
0.12768786
3
2.71
3.32
0.13730627
4
3.76
4.43
0.1193883
5
4.92
5.58
0.08853659
6
6.39
6.93
0.0456338
7
8.33
8.76
0.02219688
8
11.27
11.30
7.9858E-05
9
16.98
16.30
0.02723204
10
43.18
40.08
0.22255674
Calculada Tabular( 9 grados de libertad 0.050) Fuente: CEPAL
0.97815258 16.92
Los asalariados han perdido en tĂŠrminos relativos relativ
Fuente: INEC
La Presencia de una situaci贸n inflacionaria que tiene especial fuerza en el componente de alimentos
Inec
IPC = Β1FAO + β2 EXEPIB + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS = 2003 - 2012
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= IPC
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.3850 POSITIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.075777 NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.924223 R-SQUARE = 0.8205
R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.7981
VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 45.509 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 6.7460 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 364.07 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 116.83 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -32.1632 RAW MOMENT R-SQUARE = 0.9974 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS FAO
0.14606
0.6705E-01
2.178
0.061
0.610
0.4524
0.2040
EXEPIB
2.3732
0.2886
8.223
0.000
0.946
0.5728
0.7947
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.3850 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.5389 RHO = 0.21588 RESIDUAL SUM = 1.5377 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 45.509 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 47.104 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.8285 RUNS TEST: 5 RUNS, 6 POS, 0 ZERO, 4 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -0.5620
lnIPC = Β1lnFAO + β2lnEXEPIB + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS: 2003 - 2012
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= LNIPC
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.42078 DURBIN-WATSON: POSITIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.088485 NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.911515 R-SQUARE = 0.7565 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.7260 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.43994E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.66328E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.35195E-01 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 4.7534 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 14.0578 RAW MOMENT R-SQUARE = 0.9998 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS LNFAO
0.10665
0.1208
0.8829
0.403
0.298
0.2471
0.1135
LNEXEPIB
1.1504
0.1670
6.889
0.000
0.925
0.8664
0.8864
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.4208 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.5786 RHO = 0.23632 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.67347E-02 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.43994E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 0.48339 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.7974 RUNS TEST: 5 RUNS, 6 POS, 0 ZERO, 4 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -0.5620
IPA = Β1FAO + β2 EXEPIB + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS: 2003 - 2013
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= IPA
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.78403 DURBIN-WATSON: POSITIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.246341 NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.753659 R-SQUARE = 0.8588 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.8412 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 90.217 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 9.4983 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 721.74 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 127.70 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -35.5848 RAW MOMENT R-SQUARE = 0.9957 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO P ARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS FAO
0.35010
0.9440E-01
3.709
0.006
0.795
0.6830
0.4474
EXEPIB
1.8030
0.4064
4.437
0.002
0.843
0.2741
0.5523
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.7840 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.9823 RHO = 0.00860 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.37104 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 90.217 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 71.468 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.8589 RUNS TEST: 7 RUNS, 5 POS, 0 ZERO, 5 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.6708
lnIPA = Β1lnFAO + β2lnEXEPIB + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS: 2003 - 2013
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= LNIPA
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.69517 DURBIN-WATSON: POSITIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.202600 NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.797400 R-SQUARE = 0.8617 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.8444 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.54229E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.73640E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.43383E-01 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 4.8340 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 13.0120 RAW MOMENT R-SQUARE = 0.9998 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS LNFAO
0.37877
0.1341
2.824
0.022
0.707
0.5958
LNEXEPIB 0.79677
0.1854
4.298
0.003
0.835
0.4073
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.6952 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.8835 RHO = 0.08285 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.32046E-02 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.54229E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 0.55065 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.8642 RUNS TEST: 7 RUNS, 5 POS, 0 ZERO, 5 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.6708
0.3962 0.6037
REXEPIB = β1TUC + u OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS: 2003 - 2010
DEPENDENT VARIABLE= EXEPIB
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 2.29973 DURBIN-WATSON: POSITIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.554166 NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION TEST P-VALUE = 0.445834 R-SQUARE = 0.8473 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.8282 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 2.2554 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 1.5018 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 18.043 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 39.120 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -17.1402 VARIABLE ESTIMATED NAME COEFFICIENT TUC 0.50173 CONSTANT -7.0492
STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY ERROR 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS 0.7531E-01 6.663 0.000 0.920 0.9205 1.1802 6.946 -1.015 0.340 -0.338 0.0000 -0.1802
DURBIN-WATSON = 2.2997 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.5553 RHO = -0.19897 RESIDUAL SUM = -0.17764E-14 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.2554 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 11.013 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.8473 RUNS TEST: 6 RUNS, 5 POS, 0 ZERO, 5 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.0000
RPIB = βo+ β1TUC + u 10 OBSERVATIONS = 2003 – 2012 DEPENDENT VARIABLE= REPIB R-SQUARE = 0.7726 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.7441 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.74097 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.86080 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 5.9278 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 32.340 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -11.5747 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR TUC -0.22502 0.4316E-01 CONSTANT 53.046 3.981
T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY 8 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS -5.213 0.001 -0.879 -0.8790 -0.6403 13.32 0.000 0.978 0.0000 1.6403
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.3226 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.4696 RHO = 0.32304 RESIDUAL SUM = -0.72387E-13 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.74097 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 6.7299 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.7726 RUNS TEST: 4 RUNS, 5 POS, 0 ZERO, 5 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -1.3416
A単os
Fuente: INEC y CEPAL
Salario
Productividad
Medio Real
del Trabajo
2004
100.0
100.0
2005
98.8
102.4
2006
100.8
109.0
2007
102.1
117.1
2008
97.9
122.2
2009
100.5
124.7
2010
107.7
133.4
2011
107.8
137.9
2012
111.5
146.2
Los Losprecios preciosrelativos relativosdistorsionados distorsionadospor porla lapresencia presenciade de estructuras estructurasde demercado mercadode decompetencia competenciaimperfecta imperfecta �ndice de precio agropecuario al por mayor y de alimentos al por menor. 2004 – 2012 (2004 = 100)
Fuente: INEC
En conclusión: La visión neoliberal basada en la hipótesis del "trickle-down theory" resulta totalmente errónea para el caso de Panamá. El crecimiento no asegura automáticamente una creciente y necesaria equidad social. Una buena parte de la inflación observada se debe a factores especulativos vinculados con las estructuras oligopólicas observadas en la economía. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de los bienes básicos El país necesita de políticas públicas democráticas, activas y conscientes para avanzar en términos de equidad y sostenibilidad.
“La verdadera paz no es sĂłlo la falta de tensiones. Es la presencia de justicia.â€? Martin Luther King, Jr.