15 minute read
გეოპოლიტიკა
from My World 29
ახლო აღმოსავლეთის ცვალებადი გეოპოლიტიკა
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რევაზ გაჩეჩელაძე
axlo aRmosavleTSi ZiriTadi samxedro-politikuri Zala da uryevi politikuri avtoriteti XIX saukunidan moyolebuli, asze meti wlis ganmavlobaSi, didi britaneTi iyo.
XX saukunis Sua wlebidan ki II msoflio omSi gamarjvebuli, magram mkveTrad dasustebuli didi britaneTi mTel msoflioSi ganlagebul Tavis mravalricxovan koloniaze nebayoflobiT da mSvidobianad ambobda uars, gansxvavebiT safrangeTisagan, romelmac uqmad daRvara didi sisxli vietnamsa da alJirSi. londonma axlo aRmosavleTis regionidanac daiwyo gasvla, rodesac 1 946 wels datova iordania da 1 948 wels – palestina. es ar niSnavs, rom mas ar darCa ekonomikuri interesebi am regionSi, Tumca interesebi Seicvala: axla axloaRmosavlur navTobs aRar aqvs sasicocxlo mniSvneloba britaneTisaTvis – is yvelgan SeiZleba SeiZinos! londoni ufro dainteresebulia gayidos Tavisi samxedro mrewvelobis nawarmi sparseTis yuris qveynebSi da gamdidrebuli yofili proteqtoratebidan moizidos investiciebi Tavis kunZulze. saudieli mefiswulebi, kataris, quveiTis, abu-dabis, dubais amirebi (yofili Seixebi) da elitebis sxva mdidari wevrebi did fuls ixdian inglisSi sasaxleebis, maRaziebis, kompaniaTa aqciebis an safexburTo klubebis SesaZenad.
didi britaneTis oficialuri politikuri gavlena regionSi sabolood 1 971 wels dasrulda, rodesac gaeros damoukidebeli wevrebi gaxdnen yofili proteqtoratebi – omani, katari, bahreini, gaerTianebuli arabuli saamiroebi (SemoklebiT – gasi, romelic Svidi saamiros federaciaa da 1 971 wlamde cnobili iyo „SeTanxmebiTi omanis“ saxeliT). quveiTi ukve 1 961 wlidan iyo gaeros wevri. 1 967 wels damoukidebeli gaxda adeni.
omani
ras-al-xaima
um-al-kaiuvaini ajmani dubai Sarja
jebel-ali
abu-dabi
gaerTianebuli arabuli saamiroebi
saudis arabeTi
an-naSaSi al-aini
omani
magram regioni dominantis gareSe ar darCenila.
XX saukunis Sua xanebidan axlo aRmosavleTis hegemonis rolSi did britaneTs umtkivneulod Caenacvla amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi, romlis ZiriTadi metoqe regionSi gaxda sabWoTa kavSiri.
ukve 1 945 wlis 1 4 Tebervals, rodesac II msoflio omi arc iyo damTavrebuli, amerikul mZime kreiser „kuinsis“ gembanze erTmaneTs Sexvdnen amerikis prezidenti franklin delano ruzvelti da saudis arabeTis mefe abdulaziz al-saudi. garigebis Tanaxmad (romelic axla aRaraa saidumlo!), navTobis stabiluri miwodebis sanacvlod, demokratiis mTavarma bastionma usafrTxoebis garantia misca Sua saukuneebSi CarCenil absolutur monarqias, sadac 1 964 wlamde oficialurad arsebobda monoba. adamianis uflebaTa damcvelebi am SeTanxmebas „eSmakiseul garigebas“ uwodeben.
rub al-xalis udabno dubaisTan
geopolitika
bareli (kasri, inglisurad „barrel“) – XIX saukunis Sua wlebidan gamoiyeneba nedli navTobis sazomad. is udris daaxloebiT 1 59 litrs.
Seilgazi – Tixafiqlidan specialuri da ZviradRirebuli meTodiT mopovebuli sawvavi airi. analogiuri meTodiT xdeba navTobis mopovebac.
fiqali WaburRili
gazis nakadi
wyali, qviSa da qimikatebi Sedis WaburRilSi
wyali, qviSa da qimikatebi
fiqali naprali
gazis nakadi
napralebi
„civi omis“ periodSi, 1 946-1 990 wlebSi, rodesac arsebobda globaluri dapirispireba amerikasa da sabWoTa kavSirs Soris, amerikis politikas axlo aRmosavleTSi, erTi ingliseli mecnieris sityvebiT, gansazRvravda sami ram – „israeli, navTobi da komunizmis SeCereba“.
dReisaTvis es triada Zalian daviwrovda da erT amocanamde davida.
rac Seexeba navTobs, XXI saukuneSi amerika uzrunvelyofilia sakuTari navTobiTa da airiT (ZiriTadad es aris Seilgazi).
ufro metic, rodesac erTi bareli navTobis msoflio fasi 50-60 dolaris farglebSi meryeobs, amerika am nedleulis eqsportSi konkurentulic ki aris. 201 9 wels is iyo pirveli navTobmwarmoebeli qveyana msoflioSi, uswrebda saudis arabeTsac da ruseTsac. magram ufro dabali fasebis SemTxvevaSi, rac 2020 wels gardauvali Cans, amerikuli navTobi da airi arakonkurentunariania da axlo aRmosavleTis nedleuls upiratesoba SeiZleba mieces. Tumca, axloaRmosavluri navTobiT momarageba aSS-s axla naklebad esaWiroeba, radgan SeuZlia moaxdinos importi mezobeli da sxva, ufro axlomdebare, qveynebidan.
samagierod, amerikis sasicocxlo interesebSia, rom navTobiT vaWroba mTel msoflioSi mxolod amerikuli dolariT xorcieldebodes. es, upirvelesad, damokidebulia axlo aRmosavleTis navTobmompovebel qveynebze, gansakuTrebiT, navTobis udides eqsportior saudis arabeTze. amitomac TeTri saxli saocrad lmobieria arabuli reJimebis, maT Soris, saudis arabeTis samefo ojaxis mier adamianis uflebaTa uxeSi darRvevebis mimarT. gasakviri araa, rom sparseTis yuris qveynebis aTeul miliardobiT Rirebulebis samxedro SeiaraReba, ZiriTadad, SeerTebul StatebSia damzadebuli: misi warmoeba amerikul kompaniebs amdidrebs da milionobiT amerikels asaqmebs.
„komunizmis SeCerebis“ amocana amerikisaTvis gulisxmobda sabWoTa kavSiris gavlenis gavrcelebis winaaRmdeg brZolas, Torem sakuTriv „komunizms“ axlo aRmosavleTis konservatiuli sazogadoebrivi azri isedac ar swyalobda!
stalinis droindelma sabWoTa kavSirma Tavdapirvelad fsoni dado israelze, romlis damoukideblobac 1948 wlis maisSi dauyovnebliv cno da arabul qveynebTan omisas samxedro saWurvliTac ki moamaraga.
aSS-is prezidenti franklin delano ruzvelti kreiseris gembanze xvdeba saudis arabeTis mefe abdulaziz al-sauds, 1 945
magram kremlis geopolitikuri gaTvla, rom ebrauli saxelmwifo sabWoTa marioneti gaxdeboda, ar gamarTlda.
1 950-iani wlebis Suidan sabWoTa kavSirma daiwyo arabuli qveynebis e. w. „antiimperialisturi“ reJimebis mxardaWera, romlebmac ver miiRes saTanado daxmareba dasavleTidan da sanacvlod moskovs mimarTes. am reJimebis sagareo-politikuri veqtori araviTar ideologias ar eyrdnoboda: reJimi imis mxares iyo, vinc mets ixdida. magaliTad, 1 956 wlidan kremli samxedro da ekonomikur daxmarebas uwevda egviptis prezidents (faqtobrivad – diqtators) gamal abdel nasers. magram rodesac naseris memkvidrem, momdevno prezidentma anvar sadaTma meti daxmarebis piroba miiRo vaSingtonisagan, egviptis sagareo-politikuri orientacia umal Seicvala da proamerikuli gaxda. moxda „geopolitikuri Zvra“!
ufro metic, sadaTma iqamde arabebis mtrad miCneul israelis saxelmwifosTan diplomatiuri urTierToba daamyara, ris gamoc egvipte danarCeni arabuli qveynebis risxvis obieqti gaxda: egvipte garicxes „arabul saxelmwifoTa ligidan“ (marTalia, es droebiTi zoma aRmoCnda!). sadaTi, sxvaTa Soris, arabma nacionalistma mokla.
kairo ki dRemde iRebs finansur daxmarebas vaSingtonisagan.
axlo aRmosavleTi
axlo aRmosavleTSi sabWoTa kavSirs ar hqonda iseTi ekonomikuri interesebi, romlebmac Tavis droze regionSi miiyvana didi britaneTi (satransporto komunikaciebi da navTobi) an amerika (navTobi). kremls regionSi, ZiriTadad, geopolitikuri miznebi amoZravebda: is amocanad isaxavda „imperialisturi qveynebis“, anu, arsebiTad, amerikisa da didi britaneTis, poziciis dasustebas da TavisTvis samxedro-politikuri sayrdenis mopovebas. amisaTvis sabWoTa kavSiri mzad iyo, didi xarji gaeRo samxedro da ekonomikuri daxmarebisaTvis. misi komunisturi xelmZRvaneloba xSirad Tvals xuWavda imazec ki, rom diqtatoruli, magram „antiimperialisturi“ reJimi sastikad devnida adgilobriv komunistebs (magaliTad, egvipteSi, eraySi, siriaSi).
sabWoTa kavSirs realuri mokavSire axlo aRmosavleTSi ar hyolia, gansxvavebiT amerikisagan, romelsac periodulad hyavda mokavSireebi da mudmivad hyavs erTi mokavSire – israeli.
egviptesTan, siriasa da iordaniasTan 1 967 wlis „eqvsdRian omSi“ israelis gamarjvebis Semdeg sabWoTa kavSirma gawyvita diplomatiuri urTierToba israelTan. israelis ugulebelyofiT kremlma sababi misca amerikas mkveTrad proisraeluri gamxdariyo.
nikita xruSCovi (1 894-1 971 ) da gamal abdel naseri ( 1 91 8-1 970)
anvar sadaTi (1 91 8-1 981 )
geopolitika
eqvsdRiani omis kadrebi
israel-sabWoTa kavSiris urTierToba aRdga mxolod 1 991 wels, rodesac sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo saqmeTa ministri iyo eduard SevardnaZe – amitomac israelSi is dRemde sakmaod popularuli figuraa.
1 991 wlamde bevri arabuli qveyana da palestinelebi TavianT mTavar „megobarsa da imeds“ kremlSi xedavdnen. 1 991 wlis Semdeg ki, rodesac sabWoTa kavSiri daiSala da mis samarTalmemkvidres, ruseTis federacias, Tavad Seeqmna rTuli saSinao da sagareo viTareba, man Seuwyvita daxmareba regionis arabul qveynebs.
amrigad, „komunizmis SeCerebis“ amocana amerikas moexsna.
vaSingtonis erT-erT ZiriTad amocanad axlo aRmosavleTSi rCeba israelis usafrTxoebis sruli dacva. amas vaSingtonis yvela administracias daJinebiT Seaxsenebs xolme umdidresi ebrauli lobi, romelic did gavlenas axdens amerikis axloaRmosavlur politikaze.
1 950-iani wlebidan amerikis yvela administracia ekonomikur da samxedro sferoSi exmareboda israels, romelic amJamadac amerikuli samxedro daxmarebis udidesi beneficiaria, Tumca umaRlesi donis sakuTari samxedro mrewvelobac aqvs.
1 967 wlis „eqvsdRian omSi“ gamarjvebis Sedegad, israelma kontroli dauwesa yofili britanuli samandato palestinis mTel teritorias da saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebis ugulebelyofiT daiwyo ebrauli axalSenebis mSenebloba arabebiT dasaxlebul md. iordanes „dasavleT napirze“, romelic istoriulad marTlac iyo iudea da Somroni (samaria). ori aTasi wlis winandeli istoriuli samarTlianobis aRdgena Tanamedrove pirobebSi gamouval Cixs qmnis sicocxlisunariani palestinis saxelmwifos Sesaqmnelad. palestineli arabebis gansaxlebis arealSi Rrmad SeWrili ebrauli axalSenebi da satransporto infrastruqtura arabul dasaxlebebs erTmaneTTan daukavSirebel an Zneli gziT dakavSirebul „kunZulebad“ aqcevs.
mixail gorbaCovi (dab.1 931 ) da ronald reigani (1 91 1 -2004)
eduard SevardnaZe (1 928-201 4)
axlo aRmosavleTi
1949-1967
xaifa
xmelTaSua zRva
Tel-avivi
ierusalimi
beTlemi
Raza
mkvdari zRva
დღეს
xaifa
xmelTaSua zRva
Tel-avivi
ierusalimi
beTlemi
Raza
mkvdari zRva
iranis islamuri revoluciis lideri aiaTola xomeini (1 902-1 989)
egvipte iordania
egvipte iordania
israeli palestinelebi
amerikis prezidentebis kritika israelis saaxalSeno politikis mimarT formalur xasiaTs atarebs xolme. prezidentma donald trampma ki 2020 wels faqtobrivi legitimacia mianiWa am axalSenebs. manve gadaitana aSS-is saelCo ierusalimSi da amiT faqtobrivad cno ierusalimi israelis dedaqalaqad. maSin, roca gaeros 1 980 wlis rezolucia ukanonod acxadebs aRmosavleT ierusalimis aneqsirebas israelis mier.
amerikis gavlena gavrcelda regionis sxva qveynebzec. 1 940-iani wlebis meore naxevarSi vaSingtonma faqtobrivad ixsna TurqeTi sabWoTa agresiisagan. SemdgomSic amerika TurqeTis mTavari mokavSire iyo. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ki ankaras moexsna moskovis SiSi da man ufro damoukidebeli sagareo politika wamoiwyo. XXI saukunis dasawyisidan amerikul-Turquli urTierTobebi naklebad guliTadi xdeba, magram isini mainc natoeli mokavSireebi arian.
monarqiuli iranis mfarveli amerika iyo, Tumca Sahis reJimi sulac ar iyo „demokratiis Suqura“: ufro piriqiT! 1 979 wlis islamuri revoluciis Semdeg ki iranis religiurma xelmZRvanelobam moaxdina „geopolitikuri Zvra“ da Tavis mTavar mtrebad dasaxa amerika da israeli. es dapirispireba dRemde grZeldeba. vaSingtoni damoukideblobis garantad moevlina sparseTis yuris qveynebs. 1991 wels aSS-is mier Seqmnilma koaliciam brZoliT aRudgina damoukidebloba quveiTs, romlis aneqsireba 1 990 wels moaxdina erayis diqtatorma sadam huseinma. aseTi qcevis upasuxod datoveba regionisaTvis cudi precedenti iqneboda. Tanac, sadam huseini did safrTxes uqmnida ufro samxreTiT mdebare saudis arabeTs, navTobis mTavar mimwodebels dasavleTisaTvis, im dros – amerikisTvisac.
2003 wels amerikis prezidentma jorj buSma (umcr.) wamoiwyo samxedro operacia „Tavisufleba erays“, romelic miznad isaxavda sadam huseinis diqtatoruli reJimis damxobas. es mizani marTlac sakmaod swrafad iqna miRweuli, magram, saboloo jamSi, am operaciam daarRvia myife politikuri wonasworoba eraysa da mTel regionSi. dagegmili „patara Zlevamosili omis“ nacvlad, amerikul armias rva welze metxans mouwia darCena eraySi, sadac daiwyo samoqalaqo omi sunitebsa da Siitebs Soris, rasac Zalian
iranis Sahi mohamed reza fehlevi (1 91 9-1 980) da amerikis prezidenti riCard niqsoni (1 91 3-1 994)
geopolitika
sadam huseini loculobs quveiTze Tavdasxmis Semdeg
sparseTis yuris omi, 1 991
didi msxverpli mohyva; erayis 1 ,5-milioniani qristianuli umciresoba TiTqmis xuTjer Semcirda, misi didi nawili ltolvilad iqca; TiTqmis damoukidebeli gaxda erayis qurTistani; amerikelebis mier iranis mtris, sadam huseinis, damxobam eraySi gamoacocxla proiranuli Zalebi, Siitebi, romlebic qveynis mosaxleobis umravlesobas warmoadgenen da met-naklebad demokratiulad Catarebuli arCevnebis Semdeg maTi mxardaWerili partiebi dResac marTaven erays; erayis armiis umuSevrad darCenilma oficrebma daxmareba gauwies 201 4 wels gamocxadebul teroristul warmonaqmns – „islamur saxelmwifos“.
zemoxsenebuli operaciis arapirdapiri Sedegi iyo e. w. „arabuli gazafxuli“ 201 1 wels da imave wels antisamTavrobo gamosvlebis dawyeba siriaSi, rac, sabolood, samoqalaqo omSi gadaizarda. siriaSi omi ukve meaTe welia grZeldeba.
siriis samoqalaqo omSi monawile Zalebi warmoudgenlad Wrelia. xSirad Wirs imis gageba, vin visi mokavSirea an visi mteri. siriis „memkvidreobiTi prezidenti“ baSar al-asadi ukve 20 welia marTavs qveyanas, mamamisis – hafiz asadis Semdeg, romelic 30 wlis ganmavlobaSi rkinis xeliT marTavda sirias.
asadis reJimis opozicia SeiZleba demokratiulic iyos da islamisturic. met-naklebad demokratiuli mimarTulebis, magram sust opoziciur Zalebs dasavleTi – aSS da evrokavSiri – uWerda mxars; jamSi, ufro Zlier, magram sxvadasxva mimarTulebis, xSirad urTierdapirispirebul, isla-
erayis armiis ieriSi quveiTze hafiz al-asadi (1 930-2000)
axlo aRmosavleTi
sadam huseinis Zeglis Camogdeba omis Semdeg
mistur jgufebs ki afinansebs katari, saudis arabeTi, gaerTianebuli arabuli saamiroebi. zogadad, siriis opozicias Tavidanve miemxro TurqeTi, baSar al-asads ki – irani. sirieli qurTebi, romlebic adre al-asads mtrad miiCnevdnen, damaskos winaaRmdeg ar gamosulan, magram kontroli dauweses qveynis teritoriis meoTxeds, umeteswilad dausaxlebel udabnos, magram iq arsebuli navTob-sarewebiTurT. maSin, roca qurTebs amerika aiaraRebs, amerikis natoeli mokavSire TurqeTi qurTebis SeiaraRebul nawilebs „teroristebad“ miiCnevs“ da a. S.
siriis omSi CaerTnen rogorc axlo aRmosavleTis regionis saxelmwifoebi (samxedro Zalis meSveobiT – TurqeTi da irani,
vladimir putini da baSar al-asadi siriis samoqalaqo omi
finansurad – sparseTis yuris qveynebi), ise regionsgareSe Zalebi, upirvelesad – amerika da ruseTis federacia.
ruseTi 201 5 wels mxsnelad moevlina siriis TiTqmis damarcxebuli prezidentis baSar al-asadis represiul reJims.
formalurad ruseTi siriaSi mivida baSar al-asadis TxovniT teroristul warmonaqmn „islamur saxelmwifosTan“ sabrZolvelad, romelic im dros marTlac warmoadgenda globalur safrTxes.
es e. w. „saxelmwifo“ Seqmnes radikalma sunitma islamistebma. amitomac isini daupirispirdnen islamis sxva mimarTulebas – Siitebs, maT Soris, iranis islamur respublikasac, romelic Siituri saxelmwifoa. 201 6 wels „islamuri saxelmwifo“ erayisa da siriis teritoriis did nawilze batonobda.
mama-Svili buSebi
geopolitika
siriis samoqalaqo omis metoqe mxareebisa da omSi CarTuli saxelmwifoebis kontrolis qveS myofi teritoria, 2020 wlis dasawyisSi
afrini
alepo jarablusi
manbiji ras al-aini
tel-abiadi
raka
xmeimimi
tartusi deir ez-zori
palmira kamiSli
damasko
kuneitra tulul al-safa
deraa siriis samTavrobo Zalebi
sirieli qurTebi (aSS-is mxardaWeriT)
TurqeTis armia da TurqeTis mxardamWeri meamboxe Zalebi
islamistebi da sxva meamboxeebi
israelis mier okupirebuli golanis maRlobi
ruseTis samxedro bazebi
qurTi mebrZoli qalebi siriis samoqalaqo omSi
islamuri saxelmwifos mebrZolebi maT mier aRebul qalaq rakaSi, 201 4
„islamuri saxelmwifos“ fanatikosma mebrZolebma faqtobrivi genocidi mouwyes adgilobriv iezid da qristian mosaxleobas, gaanadgures miwaze ganlagebuli da muzeumebSi daculi „warmarTuli“ istoriuli Zeglebi, romlebic evropelma, erayelma, sirielma arqeologebma da sxva mecnierebma msoflios SeunarCunes. magaliTad, siriaSi „islamurma saxelmwifom“ gaanadgura berZnul-romauli palmiras naqalaqari.
teroristuli warmonaqmni erayisa da siriis teritoriaze faqtobrivad daamarcxes adgilobrivi qurTebis gasamxedroebulma nawilebma, amerikis armiis daxmarebiT, da erayis Siiturma Zalebma, romelTac iranis „islamuri revoluciis mcvelTa“ nawilebi exmarebodnen.
ruseTis samxedro moqmedeba siriaSi, ZiriTadad, xdeba sahaero-saraketo Zalebis meSveobiT. „islamur saxelmwifosTan“ brZolis garda, da ufro gametebiTac ki, rusulma aviaciam ieriSi miitana baSar alasadis ZiriTad mterze, Wrel da erTmaneTTan daukavSirebel, urTierTdapirispirebul opoziciur Zalebze, rogorc islamistebze, ise e. w. „demokratebze“.
„islamuri saxelmwifo“ maqsimaluri gafarToebis dros, 201 6 wlis dasawyisSi
alepo
homsi
damasko TurqeTi
kobani
el-hasaqa
raka
dair el-zavri mosuli
sinjari erbili
kirkuki
baiji
siria
el-qaimi hadita
irani
ramadi
faluja
baRdadi
erayi
`islamuri saxelmwifos~ uSualo kontrolis qveS
`islamuri saxelmwifos~ sruli moqmedebis areali
erayis qurTistanis mTavrobis kontrolis qveSi
siriis konfliqtSi CarTva kremlis Sorsmimavali geopolitikuri miznis nawilad moCans: mas unda samxedro TvalsazrisiT damkvidrdes xmelTaSua zRvis auzSi. 201 5 wels kremlma uvadod miiRo xmeimimis samxedro-sahaero baza, xolo 201 7 wlidan, 49 wlis vadiT – farTobi siriis tartusis navsadgurSi, sadac ukve sabWoTa periodidan arsebobda ruseTis samxedro-sazRvao Zalebis materialur-teqnikuri uzrunvelyofisa da SekeTebis punqti. formalurad tartusSi baza ar aris, radgan is sakmaod mcire zomisaa, magram „punqti“ ruseTis flotisaTvis jerjerobiT sakmarisia. siriis samxedro konfliqti saSualebas aZlevs ruseTs sabrZolo viTarebaSi gamoscados axali SeiaraReba da kargad gawvrTnas Tavisi oficrebi da rigiTi Semadgenloba.
axlo aRmosavleTi
kremls damaskoSi esaWiroeba masze damokidebuli reJimi, romelsac jer kidev 2005 wels Camoawera sabWoTa kavSiris droindeli 1 3,4 miliardi dolaris odenobis valis 73 procenti da axlac amaragebs samxedro SeiaraRebiT.
axlo aRmosavleTis eqspertma stiven kukma ase Seajama ruseTis moqmedeba: „siriaSi rusebma moaxdines politikuri nebisa da gamZleobis demonstracia... rusebi ar apireben wasvlas, maT aqvT dasavleTis dasustebis strategia, romelic axlo aRmosavleTSi iwyeba“.
siriis samoqalaqo omis kidev erTi, ase vTqvaT, „arapirdapiri“ monawile gaxda israeli, romlis aviacia periodulad ayenebs winmswreb saraketo dartymebs siriis teritoriaze ganlagebul iranisa da proiranuli Zalebis samxedro bazebsa da sawyobebs. gasagebia, rom israeli saxifaTod miiCnevs iranuli Zalebis miaxloebas mis sazRvrebTan.
ruseTs xels ar aZlevs dapirispireba israelTan da saTanado zomebs iRebs, raTa Tavidan aicilos ori qveynis samxedro aviaciis urTierTSexla siriis sahaero sivrceSi.
siriis konfliqtSi Cabmuli ruseTis taqtikuri mokavSire gaxda Siituri iranis islamuri respublika, romelic ibrZvis rogorc sunitebis mier daarsebuli „islamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRmdeg, ise sakuTari interesebisaTvis siriaSi. ruseTs da irans siriaSi aqvT ara saerTo, aramed „paraleluri“ miznebi. Teiranis saboloo mizania libanis navsadgurebamde saimedo satransporto wvdomis miReba, rac lojistikurad advili gansaxorcielebeli ar aris. amisaTvis irani mWidrod TanamSromlobs siriis mmarTvel reJimTan da libanis Siitur organizacia „hezbolasTan“. siriis samoqalaqo omis dawyebisTanave irani uzrunvelyofda baSar al-asadis reJimis sicocxlisunarianobas.
sirieli qali uyurebs rusi da amerikeli jariskacebis Sexvedras
geopolitika
palmira afeTqebamde da afeTqebis Semdeg
sakuTriv iranelebTan erTad siriaSi ibrZvian Siiti moxaliseebi avRaneTidan, pakistanidan, erayidan. es mTlianad saxmeleTo Zalebia.
siriis konfliqtSi baSar al-asadis mowinaaRmdege Zalebis mxares Tavidanve aqtiurad CaerTo TurqeTi. am TvalsazrisiT is ruseTisa da iranis mowinaaRmdegea, magram imavdroulad maTi partnioricaa siriis krizisis mowesrigebis sakiTxSi. TurqeTi iSviaTi saxelmwifoa, romelic gverds uvlis iranisaTvis dawesebul sanqciebs. Tavis mxriv, iranic ufrTxildeba TurqeTTan partniorul (magram ara strategiul) TanamSromlobas.
ankaras da moskovs, ufro zustad ki, TurqeTisa da ruseTis prezidentebs – rejef Taif erdoRansa da vladimir putins CamouyalibdaT ucnauri „megobroba“: isini TanamSromloben, magram Tan metoqeebic arian. ankaras, romelic uSualod emezobleba sirias, uxdeba Segueba im faqtTan, rom 201 5 wlidan samxreTidan mas „daumezoblda“ ruseTi, baSar al-asadis mTavari dasayrdeni.
TurqeTs ar SeuZlia aqtiurad SeewinaaRmdegos ruseTs siriaSi, radgan mis moqmedebas zRudavs misi ekonomikuri mibmuloba ruseTze: TurqeTi iqidan iRebs moxmarebuli bunebrivi airis or mesameds; ruseTi uSenebs mas atomur eleqtrosadgurs, romlis birTvuli sawvavi ruseTidan Semova, xolo naxmari sawvavis narCenebi ruseTSi wava; rusi turistebi TurqeTis sakurorto zonis ZiriTadi momxmareblebi arian; ruseTi Turquli saqonlis erT-erTi udidesi bazaria; ruseTma mihyida TurqeTs uaxlesi sahaero-sazenito sistema S-400. yvelafers Tavi rom davaneboT, ruseTi samxedro TvalsazrisiT TurqeTze Zlieria.
meore mxriv, Savi zRvis erTaderTi gasasvleli ruseTis samxedro da savaWro flotisaTvis – bosforisa da dardanelis sruteebi – TurqeTis xelSia! TurqeTi natos wevria da amis gaTvaliswineba ukve moskovs uxdeba.
TurqeTis geopolitikuri amocanaa ar dauSvas qurTuli avtonomiis Seqmna siriis teritoriaze, radgan sazRvris gadaRma, TurqeTis teritoriaze, aTjer meti qurTi cxovrobs.
axla ise Cans, rom vaSingtoni cdilobs rogorme ganeridos axlo aRmosavleTis problemebs, magram Seqmnili viTareba amis saSualebas mas ar aZlevs. 201 9 wels prezidentma trampma gaiyvana is amerikuli Zalebi, romlebic qurTebis gasamxedroebul nawilebs da TurqeTis armias aSoriSorebdnen siriis CrdiloeT sazRvris mimdebare zonaSi, Tumca SezRuduli raodenobis amerikuli samxedro kontingenti mainc rCeba siriaSic da eraySic. katarsa da bahreinSi ganlagebulia didi amerikuli samxedro-sazRvao da samxedro-sahaero bazebi. sparseTis yureSi xSirad morigeobs erTi an ori amerikuli aviamzidi.
axlo aRmosavleTi
bosforis srute
kosmosidan danaxuli bosforis srute (CrdiloeTiT), marmarilos zRva da dardanelis srute (samxreT-dasavleTiT)
vaSingtonis amJamindeli administracia Seecada minimumamde daeyvana amerikis roli siriis konfliqtis daregulirebaSi.
pasiuroben dasavleT evropis saxelmwifoebic, riTac kargad sargeblobs kremli.
rogorc vxedavT, axlo aRmosavleTis politika aRsavsea konfliqtebiT, paradoqsuli kavSirebiTa da dapirispirebiT, rac regions urTulebs mSvidobian ganviTarebas. geopolitikuri viTareba regionSi stabiluri ar aris.
axlo aRmosavleTis istoriulad cvalebad geopolitikas hqonda da momavalSic eqneba garkveuli, Tundac iribi, gavlena saqarTvelos sve-bedze.
saqarTvelo garkveulwilad CarTulia axlo aRmosavleTis problemebSi. amis magaliTebia qarTuli samxedro nawilebis monawileoba erayisa da avRaneTis samxedro operaciebSi, saqarTvelos muslimi moqalaqeebis CarTva „islamuri saxelmwifos“ mxares.
marTalia, aseTi CarTuloba TiTqos ukve warsulSia, magram regioni metismetad axlosaa CvenTan, rom is ugulebelvyoT!
