Belarus: Media Dissidences in the Face of Authoritarianism
24
Ultimately, the EU’s idealism isn’t enough to hide its internal instability, rendering it vulnerable to future manipulation by Lukashenko. And even with a completely unified response, economic sanctions and political statements only go so far with such an aggressive, repressive dictator. Belarus encapsulates a larger conflict between authoritarianism and democracy, and increased Belarus-Russia cooperation could complicate the geopolitical situation in a region vital to U.S. and EU interests and democracy and the rule of law more broadly.
7. Recommendations for the Way Forward Alexander Lukashenko’s violent and ongoing attempts at suppressing the media and opposition movement in Belarus are well documented. And his February 2022 referendum on a new constitution threatens to further reinforce his hold on power.83 The EU and the U.S. have openly expressed their disagreement with Lukashenko’s presidential illegitimacy and re-emphasized their commitment to the democratic rule of law. The complex nature of events in Belarus, which have threatened the balance of power in the wider European continent, have presented both the Belarusian opposition and international stakeholders in support of democracy with multiple challenges: promoting the growth of democracy in Belarus; strengthening the Belarusian opposition; weakening Lukashenko’s grip on power; and managing the Russian reaction to unfolding developments in Belarus. It is likely that a combination of coordinated efforts from various global actors will be needed in order to identify and analyze issues, trends, drivers, as well as possible options and opportunities for the way forward in Belarus.
“Lukashenka Says Belarus Plans Constitutional Referendum By February 2022,” Radio Free Europe, September 28, 2021, https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka--belarus-constitution-/31482744.html. 83
February 2022
23
