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The Economist January 1st 2022
The Americas
The new left
Boric acid or placid?
S ANTIAGO
Chile’s millennial president-elect has promised to end “neoliberalism”
L
eftists cheered and investors trem bled when Gabriel Boric, a former stu dent protester whose political coalition in cludes the Communist Party, won Chile’s presidential election on December 19th. Contrary to expectations, he beat José Ant onio Kast, a hardright candidate, by a hef ty 11 percentage points. When Mr Boric is inaugurated in March, he will be, at 36, Chile’s youngest president in two centuries. Preliminary analysis suggests that much of his vote came from younger people, particularly women, who feel fed up with establish ment politics (see chart). But how radical will he be when in offi ce? Despite his grand plans to change Chile, for much of his fi rst year Mr Boric will be constrained by three forces. He will govern alongside an assembly that is rewriting the country’s constitution, a process that start ed in response to violent riots against in equality in 2019. He will be limited by Chile’s Congress, which is fragmented among 22 parties. And he will pay a price if he spooks markets too much. The relation ship between the presidency, the constitu tionwriters and legislators will determine how far the country lurches to the left. When he started out in politics, Mr Bor ic made a name for himself railing against the centrist parties that have governed the country since the end of Augusto Pino chet’s military dictatorship in 1990. He called the former centreleft president Ri cardo Lagos a “producer of discontent” and
claimed the Christian Democratic party had done little but “torpedo transforma tions”, ignoring the fact that such centrist parties oversaw years of impressive growth and a big reduction in poverty. The country grew at an average of 5% per year between 1990 and 2018, and poverty fell from 36% in 2000 to 9% in 2018. (Poverty now stands at 11%.) Since becoming a national deputy in 2014 Mr Boric has ruffl ed Congress by showing up with a mohawk, tattoos and— most shocking to some—without wearing a tie. More worryingly, in 2018 he visited a former Communist paramilitary exiled in France who is charged with assassinating Jaime Guzmán, the author of the country’s Smells like millennial spirit Chile, vote share in 2021 presidential election* By age and sex, % Gabriel Boric
José Antonio Kast 0
25
50
75
100
Under 30 Women Men 30-49
Women Men
50-69
Women Men
70+
Women Men
Source: Decide Chile
*Second round
dictatorshipera constitution (he later apologised for the visit). His initial presi dential manifesto included proposals to revise freetrade agreements and require companies to give half their board seats to workers. On the campaign trail he prom ised that “If Chile was the cradle of neolib eralism, it will also be its grave.” But after losing the fi rst round to Mr Kast, Mr Boric tempered his tone. He began to work with the centreleft parties and tweaked his manifesto after consulting a group of centrist economists. He promised to be tough on crime and recruited Izkia Siches, the popular head of the doctors’ un ion, to lead his campaign. He smartened up with a suit and new haircut. Having won, he vowed to be the president “of all Chileans” and to implement reforms “with fi scal responsibility”. Many are unconvinced. His platform remains radical. He vows to raise taxes by 8% of gdp over two fouryear terms and abolish private pension funds. He makes grand promises, such as free public tran sport for all and universal health care funded by a 7% levy on all workers, but shows less enthusiasm for fostering the economic activity that might help pay for such things. His original manifesto, which declared itself to be a feminist document, mentions “gender” 90 times but “econom ic growth” only ten. On December 20th he promised to can cel a big mining project on environmental grounds. He also supported a policy that would have let Chileans withdraw 10% of their pension savings for the fourth time in a year. This would have caused longterm damage to pension pots and increased in fl ation—which, at 6.7%, is already more than double the central bank’s target. Growing pains Much depends on the two political bodies that could limit Mr Boric’s plans. The con stitutional convention already skews to the left, although it will choose new lead ers on January 4th that could temper its radicalism. The institution that is most likely to constrain him is Congress. A gen eral election in November left the Senate split evenly between parties of the left and right; Mr Boric’s coalition commands only fi ve seats. The lower house is also almost tied, and Mr Boric’s coalition has only 37 of 155 seats. This should force him to seek broad support for his proposals. Mr Boric claims he is diff erent from oldguard leftists in the region. He calls himself a social democrat and has criti cised leftist dictatorships in Cuba, Venezu ela and Nicaragua. Some hope that his gov ernment will be similar to that of Brazil’s Luiz Inácio da Silva, or Lula, who moved from the left to the centre when president from 2003 to 2010. Moderates are holding their breath. n
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