GA4 Predictive Metrics

AUDIENCE: Intermediate TRAINING

GA4 Predictive Metrics

Today’s Agenda

● Predictive Metrics

○ What are Predictive Metrics?

○ What are the prerequisites for predictive metrics?

○ Which predictive metrics are available and what do they mean?

○ How do you use predictive metrics?

Training Goal

You will leave this training able to understand the predictive metric capabilities available in GA4.

You will learn what they are, what they need, what they mean, and how to use them. You will also be exposed to some common use cases where predictive metrics are valuable for facilitating analysis and insight.

To do this you will need to learn 2 concepts and 2 skills.

CONCEPTS SKILLS

You will become familiar with:

You will be able to:

● What a predictive metric is.

● When a predictive metric would be useful for your analysis and reporting work.

● Create, configure and edit an Exploration that uses predictive metrics

● Create, configure and edit a segment that uses predictive metrics.

GA4 Predictive Metrics

What Are GA4 Predictive Metrics?

Google Analytics automatically (if you meet the pre-reqs) provides Google machine-learning to your dataset.

The resulting metrics predict the future behavior of your users.

With predictive metrics, you learn more about your customers and can anticipate their next actions

What are the prerequisites for predictive metrics?

To train predictive models successfully, Analytics requires that the following:

1. A minimum number of positive and negative examples of purchasers and churned users. In the last 28 days, over a seven-day period, at least 1,000 returning users must have triggered the relevant predictive condition (purchase or churn) and at least 1,000 returning users must not.

2. Model quality must be sustained over a period of time to be eligible.

3. To be eligible for both the purchase probability and predicted revenue metrics, a property has to send the purchase and/or in_app_purchase events. When you collect the purchase event, you need to also collect the value and currency parameters for that event.

Predictive metrics for each eligible model will be generated for each active user once per day.

Note: If the model quality for your property falls below the minimum threshold, then Analytics will stop updating the corresponding predictions and they may become unavailable in Analytics.

Which predictive metrics are available and what do they mean?

METRICS

Metric Definition

Purchase probability

Churn probability

Predicted revenue

The probability that a user who was active in the last 28 days will log a specific conversion event within the next 7 days.

The probability that a user who was active on your app or site within the last 7 days will not be active within the next 7 days.

The revenue expected from all purchase conversions within the next 28 days from a user who was active in the last 28 days.

How do you use predictive metrics?

Predictive metrics aren’t available throughout GA4.They can only be used in the ‘User Lifetime’ exploration report and in segments/audiences.

Let’s go through the basic workflow for the User Lifetime report using predictive metrics.

User Lifetime Report

To create a User Lifetime report follow these steps:

1. In the left-hand navigation in GA4 go to ‘Explore’

2. Click ‘User lifetime’ in the provided tiles (you may need to use the arrows to show the option)

User Lifetime Report

3. In the Variables column, add the desired dimensions, metrics and segments to your list using the ‘+’. You will notice that the dimensions and metrics available are different from a Free Form report.

4. In the ‘Tab Settings’ column, drag and drop dimension(s) into your ‘Rows’ and ‘Columns’ (optional) section. Drag and drop metrics into your ‘Values’ section.

Many ‘Predictive’ ‘Lifetime’ or ‘LTV’ metrics are now available for the report.

The User Lifetime Report is very much a Free Form Report that has predictive metrics and user lifetime values. Configuration and interaction with the report follows the same steps.

User Lifetime Report

6. In the User Lifetime Report, you will now see how many of your users (or other chosen metric) that are included in each cohort.

Day/Week/Month 0 represents the time period that a user was acquired. If a user completed a transaction, for example, during week 0, they made a purchase on their first visit.

How do you use predictive metrics?

Now let’s make a segment using predictive metrics.

Click the + beside ‘Segments’in the Variables column.

Then choose the ‘Predictive’tab in the ‘Suggested Segments’section. Here is a list of the segments that are possible (‘Ready to use’) to make.

How do you use predictive metrics?

Click on the segment you want to make, the configuration will be added for you. Click ‘Save andApply’.Your segment using a predictive metric is complete.

You can also add additional rules during this step if you wish to make the segment more specific.

E.g. Users with a purchase probability above 90th percentile AND ‘first user medium equals Email.

GA4 Predictive Metrics

What some good uses of predictive metrics/lifetime value?

Predictive metrics are a great additional tool available to you in your reporting and analysis toolset.

These metrics can be used to perform the following tasks:

Create audiences that use predictive metrics are:

Answer questions about your paid media/campaigns:

Forecast where revenue is going to come from:

● Similar Audience - Likely 7 day purchasers

● Which paid campaigns deliver the best average LTV?

● Which medium is more likely to drive a higher revenue in the next 7 days?

● Retarget - Likely 7 day purchasers

● Suppress - Likely 7 day purchasers/churners

● Which acquisition source brought likely purchasing users to the site for the first time?

Questions?