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At the start of the second half of the '70s, the consensus is one of cautious optimism. but predictors are hedging, vacillating, sliding and "how€vering" all over the map when asked for specifics on when a strong home building situation will supplant the fragile housing recovery now limping through the winter.

Final figures on '75 are not yet in, but it's expected housing start figures will hit a 29 year Iow, between l.l * 1.2 million, down from '74's 1.4 million and a world away from '72's all-time record 2.4 million.

Although discouraging, notes the Federal National Mortgage Assn. (Fannie Mae) they must be weighed against the historical record of housing: for the 20 year period 1950-69, starts averaged only a shade over 1.4; and 1.45 is what Fannie Mae sees for '76. .the widely reported Wharton economic forecast sees a 57a - 6% real growth for the economy as a whole this year, about 47oin'77.

Most recent housing starts (Nov. '75) showed a 6% decline below Oct., which had been termed a "statistical fluke" bv economists; the 1,375,000 rat-e was 357o above the Nov. rate a year previous. . .stength of the recovery seemed to be best indicated by an encouraging 19mo. high in bldg. permits.

Pres. of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco says federal support of housing thru its various programs is self-defeating as they eggravate the industry's basic problems. .used homes get the action now: of all $$ being spent on housing, T2% is going for existing homes, compared with 30Vo ftve years ago, says Investors Mortgage Insurand Co.

Attempting to counter high home prices, NLBMDA has unveiled its Packaged Housing Progr_am, which offers six _wood_ frame styles from $20,000 & up,