Global sea level is projected to rise up to two feet by the end of the century. Much of downtown Damariscotta is already vulnerable to high water levels such as those anticipated during 100-year storms. Except for the area immediately along the waterfront and the large drainage in the southern part of the site, Round Top Farm's elevation will prevent widespread flooding from the river on the property. However, most of downtown and other low-lying areas along the river are likely to be inundated by increases in sea level with damaging effects for the community.
www.forestadaptation.org Round Top Farm currently has many mature shade trees around expectations. It’s perhaps best to think of these projections as indicators of possibility and potential change. the buildings on site, primarily northern red oak and some maples. These trees appear to be in SOURCE: This handout summarizes the full model results for Eastern and Coastal Maine, due to browntail moth. The most immedigenerally goodavailable to fair condition despite past defoliation at www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/combined/resources/summaries. More information on vulnerability and adaptation in the New England region can be found at www.forestadaptation. ate danger to most of the individual trees is root compaction from the adjacent driveway. org/new-england. A full description of the models and variables are provided in Iverson et al. 2019 (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/57857 and www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/59105) and Peters et al. 2019 There are two particularly notable red oaks near the farmhouse that are believed to be the oldest (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/58353). www.forestadaptation.org specimens on site and are much loved for their distinctive size and growth patterns. While oaks are projected to fare well in this area in the future, Coastal Rivers will need to monitor for pest activity and may need to take specific measures to protect and extend the lifetime of the two oldest trees. Despite these limits, models provide useful information about future
Sea Level Rise
Round Top Farm
Many of the trees currently growing along the riverfront and drainages are white pine and hemlock, many of which already appear to be in poor health. Coastal Rivers will need to plan for succession of these trees to maintain a vegetated buffer along these sensitive waterways, particularly as many are similar in age and likely to leave large gaps upon mortality.
Predicted inundation zones from sea level rise (Lincoln County Regional Planning Commission/ Maine Geological Survey)
Not for construction. Part of a student project and not based on a legal survey.
Spring 2022
Designed By: Veronica Chudik & Hope Matis
Designed For: Coastal Rivers Conservation Trust
Round Top Farm Comprehensive Plan
SOURCE: This handout summarizes the full model results for Eastern and Coastal Maine, available at www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/combined/resources/summaries. More information on vulnerability and adaptation in the New England region can be found at www.forestadaptation. org/new-england. A full description of the models and variables are provided in Iverson et al. 2019 (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/57857 and www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/59105) and Peters et al. 2019 (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/58353).
Climate Change Effects
leaf diseases affecting beech and pine species. Browntail Despite these limits, modelsarea, provide useful information about future success. If a species is rare or confined to a small model results may expectations. It’s perhaps best to of these projections be lessresult reliable. These factors, and others, coulddefoliation causethink a particular speciesas indicators of moth infestations in partial or whole of Projected summer climate equivalent for the state possibility and potential change. to perform better or worse than a model projects. Human choices will also of Maine under different climate change scenarios hardwood trees, particularly oakdistribution, and apple, which Photos: (from top) iStockphoto.com/Andy Thorington; Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife; iStockphoto.com/Greg Nicholas; Captains of Industry; iStockphoto.com/Ben Thomas continue to influence forest especially for treecan species that (Union of Concerned Scientists) are projected to increase. Planting programs may assist the movement of lead to tree mortality. future-adapted species, but this will depend on management decisions.
88 Village Hill Rd.Northampton, MA 01060 413-369-4044 www.csld.edu
Climate Change Effects
3 Round Top Lane, Damariscotta, ME 04543
emissions is lowered, however, projections Precipitation and winter snow. The Northeast show that many of the changes will be far less region is projected to see an increase in winter dramatic. Emissions choices we make today—in precipitation on the order of 20 to 30 percent. Maine, the Northeast, and worldwide—will Slightly greater increases are projected under Climate Change Projections CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL TREE SPECIES for help determine the climate our children and the higher-emissions scenario, which would Individual Tree Species EASTERN AND COASTAL MAINE Climate change is anticipated to affect several factors on site, including temperature, andless vegetation. It will be critical grandchildren inherit, and shape the conse- hydrology, also feature winter precipitation fallingto asprovide cool rest areas for visitor comfort, as wellquences as implement slow and infiltrate to reduce (Eastern and Coastal Maine) for theirmeasures economy,toenvironment, and stormwater snow and more as rain. erosion, protect water quality, CLIMATE CHANGE CAPABILITY and retain water on site. CRCT should also plan for succession in site vegetation, particularly in vulnerable areas along water bodies, by planting This region’s forests will be quality of life. Snow is nearly synonymous with winter in CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL TREE SPECIES POOR CAPABILITY affected by a changing climate and encouraging species appropriate for future suchhere thatdescribes large gaps do notand occur. and other stressors during thisAND COASTAL American MAINE mountain-ash Pitch pine The climate researchconditions summarized Maine an integral part of many favorite winEASTERN century. A team of managers and Balsam poplar Red pine how climate change may affect Maine and ter activities and traditions. If higher emissions researchers created an assessment Black spruce Serviceberry CLIMATE CHANGE CAPABILITY that describes theThis vulnerability region’s forests will be Maine other Northeast states under affected by a changing climate Bur oak POOR CAPABILITY Striped maple of forests in the region (Janowiak and other stressors during this American mountain-ash Pitch pine Vegetation et al. 2018). This report includes Tamarack (native) century. A team of managers Jack and pine Balsam poplar 1961–1990 Red pine Temperature & Precipitation two different emissions sceinformation on observed and researchers created an assessment Migrating State Mountain Black maple White spruce spruce Serviceberry that describes future climate trends, and alsothe vulnerability narios. The higher-emissions Striped maple of forests in the region (Janowiak 2010–2039 Pin cherry Bur oak Climate summarizes key vulnerabilities et al. 2018). This report includes As a result of changing temperature and precipitation Jack pine Tamarack (native) scenario assumes continued for forested natural communities. The Landscape Change Research information on observed and FAIR CAPABILITY Mountain maple White spruce Average temperatures across the Northeast have already risen an Changes in average sumfuture climate trends, and also updated the predicted Climate Change to Treeshift Atlas, and this handout patterns, manyGroup treerecently species are their 2010–2039 Balsam fir Pin cherry Northern white-cedar heavy reliance on fossil fuels, summarizes key vulnerabilities summarizes that information. Full Tree Atlas results are available online at estimated 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970. Average temperatures in FAIR CAPABILITY Red spruce for forested of natural communities. The Landscape Change Research Eastern hemlock mer heat index—a measure distributions. The Northern Institute Applied Science www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/. Two climate presented to “bracket” Group recentlyscenarios updated theare Climate Change Tree Atlas, and this handout causing heat-trapping emisBalsam fir Northern white-cedar Gray summarizes that information. Full Tree Atlas(2070 resultsto are2099) available online at birchEastern hemlock Maine are projected to rise another five to ten degrees by the end of a range of possible futures. These future climate projections of how hot it actually feels, Red spruce 2040–2069 has partnered with various agencies to generate 2040–2069 climateprojecscenarios are presented to “bracket” GOOD CAPABILITY sions to rise rapidly over the provide information aboutwww.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/. how individual treeTwo species may respond to a Gray birch a range of possible futures. These future climate projections (2070 to 2099) 2070–2090 given temperature and the century depending on emissions scenarios, creating a climate simchanging climate. Results for “low” and “high” emissions scenarios can be American beech tions for major tree species in the Northeast based GOOD CAPABILITY Northern red oak provide information about how individual on tree species may respond to a course of the century. The lowercompared on the reverse side of this handout. changing climate. Results for “low” and “high” emissions scenarios canAmerican be American beech Northern red oak humidity—could strongly ilar to the current Mid-Atlantic. This may result in increased incidence elm Quaking aspen their ability to tolerate predicted future climate condicompared on the reverse side of this handout. 2070–2090 American elm Quaking aspen emissions scenario assumes a Bigtooth aspen Red maple affect Mainers’ quality of The updated Tree Atlas presents additional information helpful to interpret of heat stress and respiratory ailments such as asthma for many site Bigtooth aspen Red maple updated Tree Atlas presents additional information helpful to interpret tions and their tree ability migrateThe rapidly enough to keep speciesto changes: Black cherry Sugar maple tree species changes: Black cherry Sugar maple shift away from fossil fuels in life in the future. Red arrows visitors. • Suitable habitat - calculated based onexplain 39 variables that explain where • changes. Suitable habitatSome - calculated based on 39 variables that where Swamp whiteoak oak Black oak Black oak Swamp white pace with these species, such as northoptimum conditions exist for a species, including soils, landforms, and favor of clean energy technolooptimum for a species, including soils, landforms, and Ironwood White oak track what summers couldconditions existclimate variables. Ironwood White oak climate variables.are predicted to adapt well ern red oak and red maple, MIXED RESULTS • Adaptability - based on life-history traits that might increase or gies, with causing emissions to defeel like over the course MIXED RESULTS American basswood Green ash decrease tolerance of expected changes, such as the ability to Winter precipitation is projected to increase, a higher percentage • Adaptability based on life-history traits that might increase or and remain important components inchanges, the eastern Maine American hornbeam Green Paper withstand different forms of American basswood ashbirch decrease such asdisturbance. the ability to of the century under the tolerance of expected cline by mid-century. falling as rain instead of snow. Summer rainfall is expected to become Black ash Silver maple • Capability - a rating of the species’ ability to cope or persist with climate American hornbeam Paper birch withstand different forms of disturbance. woods. Other signature species such as eastern white change in this region based on suitable habitat change (statistical Boxelder White ash higher-emissions scenario; research also As explores adaptability (literature review and expert opinion), andBlack ash Silver maple more unpredictable, with more frequent andThe intense storms. a • Capability - a rating of themodeling), species’ ability to cope or persist with climate Eastern white pine Yellow birch pine and eastern hemlock, may decline. abundance (FIA data). The capability rating is modified by abundance yellow arrows trackchange whatin this region based on suitable habitat change (statistical Boxelder White ashPOTENTIAL NEW HABITAT WITH MIGRATION actions that individual houseinformation; ratings are downgraded for rare species and upgraded for result, periods of drought may alternate with damaging storm events, modeling), adaptability (literature review and expert opinion), and Bitternut hickory Pignut hickory abundant species. Eastern white pine Yellow birch summers in the state could holds,and businesses, abundance (FIA data). The capability rating is modified by abundance • Migration Potential Model - when combined with habitat suitability, Black walnut Sassafrass increasing the likelihood of localized flooding erosion and and governstress to NEW HABITAT WITH MIGRATION POTENTIAL These projections do not include additional an estimate of afor species’ colonization likelihood for new information; ratings are downgraded rarepressures species and upgraded forhabitats. This feel like under the lowerBlackgum Scarlet oak Higher-Emissions Scenario rating can be helpful for assisted migration or focused management ments in the Northeast can Bitternut hickory Pignut hickory abundant species. Chestnut oak Shagbark hickory both infrastructure and vegetation. (see the table section: “New Habitat with Migration Potential”). from pests and •disease, whose effects are anticipated emissions scenario. Eastern redcedar Slippery elm Lower-Emissions Scenario Migration Potential Model - when combined with habitat suitability, Black walnut Sassafrass take today to reduce emissions Remember that models are just tools, and they’re not perfect. Model Mockernut hickory Yellow-poplar estimate of a species’ colonization likelihood for new habitats. This to become more an severe with climate change. particScarlet oak projections can’t account for allOf factors that influence future species Blackgum to levels consistent with stayrating can be helpful forsuccess. assisted migration focusedtomanagement If a species is rareor or confined a small area, model results may Chestnut oak Shagbark hickory ular concern in Midcoast theThese hemlock woolly beare lessHabitat reliable. factors, and others, could cause a particular species (see the tableMaine section: “New with Migration Potential”). ing below the lower-emissions to perform better or worse than a model projects. Human choices willEastern also redcedar Slippery elm adelgid, emerald ash borer, browntail moth, and bark and to influence forest distribution, especially for tree species that Remember that models arecontinue just tools, and they’re not perfect. Model Mockernut hickory Yellow-poplar are projected to increase. Planting programs may assist the movement of scenario, and to adapt to the projections can’t account for all factors that influence future species future-adapted species, but this will depend on management decisions.
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