Global production
Aquaculture
bounces back A worldwide survey of producers reveals the post-2020 recovery is under way, but there are also winners and losers BY ROBERT OUTRAM
T
HE Global Seafood Alliance (GSA) Conference – no�onally in Sea�le this year, but actually online – also saw the unveiling of the GSA’s global aquaculture produc�on surveys and forecast, covering finfish and shrimp. Both surveys were produced by the GSA in associa�on with Rabobank, with addi�onal data from the United Na�ons Food and Agricultural Organisa�on (FAO) and analysts Kontali. Produc�on growth es�mate for 2020 and 2021, and forecasts for the coming year, were based on input from producers. The results were presented by Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Analyst, Seafood, with Rabobank. Shrimp shine in 2021 For the shrimp sector, it was a story of recovery from the slump in 2020, with further growth to come. Nikolik said: “For La�n America as a whole, it’s been a booming year for shrimp produc�on.” Mexico’s produc�on of vannamei shrimp declined slightly in 2020 compared with the previous year, but es�mates for 2021 suggest that, at just under 180,000 tonnes, the current year’s out will be 8% up year on year. Brazil’s output is expected to be at least 65,000 tonnes or more according to the GOAL survey, with some es�mates predic�ng as much as 100,000 tonnes. Ecuador remains a strong performer in the field, with con�nued year-on-year growth of 5.1% even during 2020 and expected growth of 10.2% to reach just
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under 800,000 tonnes. Indian produc�on contracted steeply by 12.5% in 2020. With 2021 output es�mated at around 700,000 tonnes, it is expected to take un�l 2023 to get back to the produc�on levels of 2019. China’s figures are controversial, Nikolik said. Officially, shrimp produc�on in China passed 2 million tonnes in 2018, with just under 2.2 million in 2019. Rabobank’s alterna�ve assessment, based on industry sources, suggests 2019 output was more like just over 500,000 tonnes, represen�ng a slight fall compared with 2018. Applying industry expecta�ons to official data, Rabobank suggests growth is resuming a�er a fairly flat 2020, with 9.1% growth in 2021, or a total for the current year of more than 2,300 tonnes. Vietnam is expected to record 13.6% growth for 2021, to around 760,000 tonnes, although growth next year is only predicted to be 0.9% and Rabobank feels official figures may be overstated. Indonesia’s figures are also disputed. Rabobank feels the official figures for 2019, of over 900,000 tonnes, are over-op�mis�c and believes the real figure, based on industry sources, could be more like 380,000 tonnes. Thailand, meanwhile, will see an es�mated 7.8% in growth for 2021, taking the country’s produc�on to just over 400,000 tonnes, while smaller producers such as the Philippines and Malaysia appear to be pre�y flat in growth terms. In total, produc�on
This page from top: India and Ecuador: shrimp exports by volume and value, 2020; Shrimp; Expected shrimp produc�on growth by region – CAGR = compound annual growth rate Opposite from top: Farmed carp, China; Global finfish produc�on – sources Rabobank, FAP, GSA; Global salmon produc�on by region
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09/12/2021 15:36:13
