n. iosebaSvili z. beriZe n. murakaSvili
s t a t i s t i k a ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi
Tbilisi - 2010
2
3
naSromi eZRvneba Cveni maswavleblis profesor Saler benias naTel xsovnas.
naSromSi gaSuqebulia statistikis gamoyenebis aqtualuri sakiTxebi. Teoriuli masala ganmtkicebulia uaxlesi statistikuri informaciiT, amoxsnilia sanimuSo magaliTebi da amocanebi.
wigni rekomendirebulia saxelmZRvanelod agraruli universitetis biznesi da marTvis specialobis studentebisaTvis.
redaqtori:
sruli profesori l. CiburdaniZe
recenzenti: asoc. prof. l nozaZe
Sesavali statistikuri mecnierebis Tanamedrove meTodebi farTod gamoiyebneba biznesis marTvis sferoSi. amis gamo aucilebelia statistikis zogadi Teoriis aTvisebasTan erTad studentebma Seiswavlon konkretuli praqtikuli meTodebi, romelTa gamoyenebiTac xdeba ekonomikisa da biznesis marTvis sferoSi mimdinare movlenebisa da procesebis analizi. statistika kacobriobis arsebobis aseulobiT wlebis manZilze yovelTvis iTvleboda saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis ucilobel, efeqtur instrumentad. sabazro urTierTobebze gadasvliT kidev ufro gafarTovda misi gamoyenebis areali TiTeuli ojaxis, biznesmenis, menejeris, mecnieris da mkvlevaris statistikuri informaciis sxva momxmareblebis mier, sxvadasxva saxis gadawyvetilebebis miRebisas. winamdebare damxmare saxelmZRvanelos Sinaarsi da struqtura srulad Seesabameba saswavlo disciplinis `statistika ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi~- moqmed silabuss. saxelmZRvanelos momzadebisas gamoyenebuli iqna bolo wlebSi gamoqveynebuli statistikuri literatura da uaxlesi statistikuri monacemebi. imedi gvaqvs saxelmZRvanelo daxmarebas gauwevs agraruli universitetis biznesi da marTvis specialobis studentebs. avtorTa koleqtivi siamovnebiT miiRebs da gaiTvaliswinebs saxelmZRvanelos irgvliv gamoTqmul SeniSvnebsa da winadadebebs.
4
5 Tema 1. mosaxleobis statistika
socialur-demografiuli statistika, rogorc statistikuri mecnierebis uZvelesi dargi, Seiswavlis mosaxleobisa da misi ganviTarebis kanonzomierebebs sazogadoebis ganviTarebis konkretul pirobebSi. mosaxleoba adamianTa erTobliobaa, romelic sazogadoebis materialuri da sulieri cxovrebis erTerTi aucilebeli elementia geografiul garemosa da materialuri dovlaTis warmoebasTan erTad. mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaze, struqturasa da dinamikaze, jandacvis mdgomareobasa da ganaTlebis doneze didadaa damokidebuli sazogadoebaSi materialuri da sulieri dovlaTis warmoebis ganviTareba. amitom statistika Seiswavlis mosaxleobis ricxovnobas, Semadgenlobas (struqturas), agreTve, dinamikas drosa da sivrceSi. mosaxleobis, rogorc rTuli erTobliobis Seswavla, SeuZlebelia misi sxvadasxva niSniT dajgufebis gareSe. mosaxleobis statistikis ZiriTadi maCveneblebidan gamoyofen demografiuli procesebisa da situaciebis Sefasebisa (romelis Seqmnilia konkretul teritoriaze, konkretul drosa da sivrceSi) da maTi momavalSi ganviTarebis (prognozirebas) Semdeg maxasiaTeblebs. demografiuli situaciebis maxasiaTeblebia: 1. mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis maCveneblebi. 2. mosaxleobis Semadgenlobis (struqturis) maCveneblebi. 3. mosaxleobis ganaxlebisa da migraciis maCveneblebi. calkeuli konkretuli kvlevebis pirobebSi SesaZlebelia mosaxleobis Sesaxeb sxvadasxva maCveneblebis miReba da sxvadasxva amocanebis gadawyveta, magram, rodesac mosaxleobis statistikur aRweras awarmoeben, gamoyofen mosaxleobis statistikuri Seswavlis Semdeg ZiriTad amocanebs: 1. mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da misi qveynis teritoriebis mixedviT ganlagebis gansazRvra. 2. mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da struqturis (Semadgenlobis) sxvadasxva niSnebiT Seswavla:
a) demografiuli (sqesi, asaki, ojaxuri mdgomareoba), b) eTnikuri (erovneba, mSobliuri ena), g) ganaTlebis profesiuli saqmianobisa da sxva. 3. mosaxleobis migraciis Seswavlas. 4. mosaxleobis socialuri maxasiaTeblebis gansazRvras. amrigad, mosaxleobis statistikur maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis ZiriTadi mizania qveynis konkretul teritoriaze, konkretul droSi formirebuli demografiuli situaciis, misi ganviTarebis Seswavla. ra saWiroa socialur-demografiuli garemos Seswavla ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis ganviTarebisaTvis? ekonomika, biznesi da menejmenti mxolod xalxis normaluri cxovrebisa da ganviTarebisaTvisaa saWiro. amitom mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, Semadgenlobis, dinamikis, am safuZvelze moTxovna-miwodebis ganviTarebis, agreTve, cxovrebis donis, Semosavlebis, danaxarjebis, mecnierebis, kulturis, ganaTlebis, jandacvis da qveyanaSi iuridiul-ekonomikuri samarTlianobis Seswavlis gareSe SeuZlebelia nebismieri swori ekonomikuri politikis gatareba da biznesmenuri, agreTve, menejmenturi gadawyvetilebis miReba. amis garda, socialur-demografiuli situacia, biznes garemos erTerTi mniSvnelovani indikatoria. aq ganixileba biznesis ganviTarebis garemos ganmsazRvreli iseTi sakiTxebi, rogoricaa mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraoba, aqedan gamomdinare biznesisaTvis saWiro SromiTi resursebi, cxovrebis done da samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba, socialuri infrastruqtura (ganaTleba, jandacva, sakanonmdeblo baza da samarTlianobis statistikis indikatorebi) da sxv. mosaxleobis statistikuri Seswavla misi ricxovnobis SeswavliT iwyeba. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis informaciuli wyaroebia, pirvel rigSi, sayovelTao aRwerebi da Semdgom, aRweraTaSoris periodebSi, mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobis aRricxvis maCveneblebi. mosaxleoba xasiaTdeba iseTi kategoriebiT, rogoricaa mudmivi, saxeze myofi, droebiT mcxovrebi da droebiT wasuli mosaxleoba. mudmiv mosaxleobas miekuTvneba is pirni, romlebic mudmivad cxovroben, xolo saxeze myofT - vinc
6
7
aRweris kritikul momentSi imyofebian (miuxedavad imisa, isini cxovroben mudmivad Tu ara, mocemul dasaxlebul punqtSi). droebiT macxovreblebs miekuTvneba saxeze myofi mosaxleobis nawili, romlebic droebiT cxovroben mocemul teritoriaze, magram mudmivi sacxovrebeli gaaCniaT sxva teritoriaze. maSasadame, mudmiv sacxovrebelze isini CaiTvlebian droebiT wasul mosaxleobad. Tu saxeze myofT davumatebT droebiT wasul da gamovaklebT droebiT macxovreblebs, miviRebT mudmiv mosaxleobas. mosaxleobis ricxovrobis safuZvelze statistika angariSobs mosaxleobis saSualowliur sidides, agreTve, struqturas da dinamikas. Tu gvaqvs mosaxleobis ricxovnoba wlis dasawyissa da wlis bolos, maSin saSualowliuri sidide SeiZleba martivad davadginoT maTi jamis orze gayofiT. magaliTi. mudmivi mosaxleobis ricxovnobam saqarTveloSi 2007 wlis dasawyisSi Seadgina 4394,7 aTasi, xolo wlis bolos 4371,3 aTasi kaci. maSasadame saSualowliuri ricxovnoba Seadgens:
y
4394,7 4371,3 4383 aTasi kacs 2
Zalian xSirad mocemulia mosaxleobis ricxovnoba ramdenime wlis pirveli ianvrisTvis. am SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis saSualowliuri ricxovnoba qronologiuris gamoyenebiT:
y
dadgindeba
saSualo
1 1 y1 y 2 y3 y n 2 y 2 n 1 sadac y
- aris saSualowliuri ricxovnoba;
y1 , y 2 , y3 ,, y n
- mosaxleobis wlis pirveli ianvrisaTvis;
ricxovnobaa
TiToeuli
n - welTa raodenoba. magaliTi. saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis ricxovnobam 1 ianvrisaTvis aTas kacebSi Seadgina Sesabamisad 2003-2008 wlebSi: wlebi 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 mosaxleobis 4342,6 4315,2 4321,5 4401,3 4394,7 4382,1 ricxvi (aTasi kaci) am monacemebiT 2003-2008 wlebSi saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis saSualowliuri ricxovnoba Seadgenda:
0.5 4342.6 4315.2 4321.5 4401.3 4394.7 0.5 4382.1 5 4359,01 aTasi kacs mosaxleobis ricxovnobis struqtura, anu Semadgenloba Seiswavleba sxvadasxva niSniT. maT Soris mniSvnelovania eTnikuri (erovneba, mSobliuri ena), demografiuli (sqesi, asaki, ojaxuri mdgomareoba), socialuri (klasobrivi Semadgenloba), ekonomikuri da profesiuli. struqturuli Semadgenloba gamoisaxeba CvenTvis saintereso niSnis mqone (sqesi, asaki da a.S.) mosaxleobis ricxovnobis procentuli SefardebiT mosaxleobis saerTo ricxvTan. y
8
9
magaliTi. gansakuTrebiT sainteresoa bavSvebis da moxucebis xvedriTi wili mTels mosaxleobaSi. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0 dan 15 957,3 926,5 905,7 889,4 855,2 824,8 wlamde mosaxleoba (aTasi kaci) 65 wlis 711,2 706,4 703,4 716,0 722,0 724,9 zeviT mosaxleoba (aTasi kaci) sul mosaxleoba 4342,6 4315,2 4321,5 4401,3 4394,7 4382,1 (aTasi kaci) 15 wlamde asakis 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.2 19.5 18.8 mosaxl. xvedriTi wili % 65 wlis 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 zeviT mosaxl. xvedriTi wili % 15 wlamde asakis mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili (struqtura) procentobiT Seadgens:
2003 wels 2008 wels
957.3 100 22.0% 4342.6 824.8 100 18.8% 4382.1
65 wlis zeviT mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili (struqtura) procentobiT Seadgens:
2003 wels
2008 wels
711.2 100 16.4% 4342.6 724.9 100 16.5% 4382.1
sainteresoa agreTve mosaxleobis struqtura dasaqmebul adamianebze damokidebuli adamianebis raodenobis mixedviT anu e.w. damokidebulebis koeficienti. 2003-2008 wlebis monacemebis damokidebulebis koeficienti iqneba:
mixedviT
saqarTveloSi
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1668,5 1632,9 1609,1 1605,4 1577,2 1549,7
0 da 15 wlamde da 65 wlis zeviT (aTasi kaci) 2674,1 2682,3 2712,4 2795,9 2817,5 2832,4 15-64 wlamde SromisunarianTa ricxvi (aTasi kaci) 0.61 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.55 damokidebulebis 0.62 koeficienti mTeli msoflios ganviTarebad qveynebSi damokidebulebis koeficienti klebulobs, asevea saqarTveloSic. damokidebulebis maRali koeficienti niSnavs ekonomikuri zrdis nakleb potencials, ganviTarebul qveynebSi damokidebulebis koeficienti mTeli msoflios masStabiT zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba. mosaxleobis dinamikas qronologiuri TariRebis (Tveebi, kvartlebi, wlebi da a.S.) mixedviT statistika swavlobs dinamikis SefardebiTi sidideebis gamoyenebiT. imave Cvens mier zemoT mocemuli cifrebidan Cans, rom mosaxleobis ricxovnobis dinamikis koeficientma 2003-2008 wlebSi Seadgina:
KK
4382,1 100 100,91 4342,6
10
11
rac niSnavs, rom saqarTveloSi am wlebSi mosaxleobis raodenobam moimata TiTqmis 1 %-iT. statistika Seiswavlis, agreTve, mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobis maCveneblebs. mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobis maCveneblebi mosaxleobis bunebriv moZraobas ganekuTvneba Sobadoba, sikvdilianoba, qorwineba, ganqorwineba da sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobis cvlilebani. bunebrivi moZraobisagan gansxvavdeba migracia. migracia ewodeba mosaxleobis gadaadgilebas erTi teritoriuli adgilidan meoreze xangrZlivi an xanmokle periodiT, romelsac Tan axlavs mudmivi sacxovrebeli adgilis Secvla. sxvagvarad migracias mosaxleobis meqanikur moZraobas uwodeben. zogjer saqme gvaqvs e.w. qanqarisebur migraciasTan, romlis qveS igulisxmeba adamianebis sistematuri wasvla da ukan dabruneba samuSaod an saswavleblad. mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraoba rTuli socialur-ekonomikuri procesia, romlis cifrobrivi daxasiaTebiT statistika iZleva SromiTi resursebis raodenobis, urbanizaciis (soflidan qalaqisaken mosaxleobis moZraoba) da sxva sakiTxebis Seswavlis saSualebas qveynisa da regionebis mixedviT. mosaxleobis bunebriv moZraobas axasiaTebs Sobadobis, sikvdilianobis, bunebrivi matebis, qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis absoluturi da SefardebiTi maCveneblebi. absoluturi maCveneblebia wlis manZilze dabadebulTa, gardacvalebulTa da bunebrivi matebis (maT Soris sxvaoba) ricxvi, xolo Tu am absolutur sidideebs aviRebT SefardebiT mosaxleobis 1000 sulze gaangariSebiT (promilebSi %0 ), miviRebT mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis koeficientebs. es koeficientebi iZleva analizisa da sxvadasxva qveynebis, regionebis urTierTSedarebis saSualebas. Tu wlis manZilze dabadebulTa ricxvs aRvniSnavT
N N-iT,
gardacvalebulTa ricxvs
M - M-iT, bunebrivi matebis absolutur
mniSvnelobas
xolo
-Ti,
mosaxleobis
saSualowliuri
S -iT, maSin ricxovnobas ganisazRvreba formuliT: KS
Sobadobis
koeficienti
(
KS )
N 1000 S
mokvdaobis koeficienti:
Km
M 1000 S
bunebrivi moZraobis koeficienti:
K
N M 1000 1000 S S
bunebrivi moZraobis motanili SefardebiTi maCveneblebi agebulia mosaxleobis saerTo saSualowliuri ricxovnobis mimarT. amitom maT sxvagvarad uwodeben saerTo koeficientebs. cxadia, isini gansxvavdeba calkeuli asakobrivi, socialuri, sqesobrivi da sxva jgufebis mixedviT. Tu msgavs gaangariSebebs vawarmoebT mosaxleobis aseTi struqturuli qvedanayofebis mixedviT, miviRebT e.w. bunebrivi moZraobis specialur koeficientebs. magaliTad, Sobadobis saerTo koeficientTan erTad metad sainteresoa qalTa nayofierebis anu Sobadobis specialuri koeficienti, romelsac angariSoben wlis manZilze dabadebulTa ricxvis SefardebiT 15-49 (fertiluri) asakis qalTa saSualowliur ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. gamoyofen, agreTve, bavSvTa sikvdilianobis specialur koeficients, romelic sikvdilianobis saerTo koeficientebisagan gansxvavebiT gaiangariSeba mocemul wels 1 wlamde asakis gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvis SefardebiT ara bavSvTa saSualo-wliur, aramed dabadebulTa ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. magram 1 wlamde gardacvlilebidan nawili ekuTvnis mimdinare, nawili - gasul wels dabadebulebs. xSirad dabadebulebidan 2 nawils miakuTvneben mocemul wels dabadebulebs, maSin bavSvTa sikvdilianobis specialuri koeficienti miiRebs aseT saxes:
12
13
KM 
m1 2 1 N1  N 0 3 3
1000
ZiriTadi demografiuli maCveneblebi (koeficientebi)
sadac:
K M - bavSvTa sikvdilianobis specialuri koeficientia, m1 - 1 wlamde gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvi,
N 1 - mocemul wels dabadebulTa ricxvi, N 0 - gasul wels dabadebulTa ricxvi. xSirad angariSoben, agreTve, ,,sicocxlianobis~ koeficients dabadebulTa ricxvis SefardebiT gardacvlilTa ricxvTan, romelic gamoisaxeba procentebSi. absoluturi da SefardebiTi maCveneblebiT xasiaTdeba, agreTve, daqorwinebulTa da ganqorwinebulTa ricxvi. absoluturi maCvenebelia daqorwinebulTa da ganqorwinebulTa ricxvi wlis manZilze. Tu maT cal-calke gavyofT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxvze da gavamravlebT 1000-ze, miviRebT daqorwinebis an ganqorwinebis saerTo koeficients. magram aseTi SefardebiTi maCveneblebis nakli isaa, rom ar iTvaliwinebs asakobriv da sqesobriv gansxvavebas. amitom angariSoben specialur koeficientebs cal-calke vaJebisa da qalebis, agreTve, fertiluri asakisaTvis. mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia, agreTve, qorwinebis saSualo xangrZlivoba, romelic miuTiTebs ojaxis simtkiceze da SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes am movlenis saTanado analizisaTvis.
2003 Sobadoba (aTas kacze) gardacvaleba (aTas kacze) 1 wlamde gardacvaleba (aTas cocxlad dabadebulze) bunebrivi mateba (aTas kacze) mkvdradSobadoba (aTas dabadebulze) qorwineba (aTas kacze) ganqorwineba (aTas kacze)
2004
2005
2006
2007
10,7
11,5
10,7
10,9
11,2
10,6
11,3
9,9
9,6
9,4
24,8
23,8
15,8
13,3
0,0
0,2
0,8
1,3
1,8
17,3
17,2
15,6
14,7
12,7
2,9
3,4
4,1
5,0
5,7
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,5
0,5
19,7
rogorc statistikuri monacemebidan irkveva bolo wlebSi saqarTveloSi SeimCneva ZiriTadi demografiuli maCveneblebis gaumjobeseba. mosaxleobis bunebriv moZraobasTan erTad statistika Seiswavlis, agreTve, migracias, anu mosaxleobis meqanikur gadaadgilebas erTi qveynidan (regionidan) meore qveyanaSi (regionSi). erTmaneTisagan ansxvaveben Siga (erTi qveynis an regionis farglebSi) da gare (erTi qveynidan an regionidan meoreSi) migracias. mosaxleobis moZraoba SeiZleba iyos ori mimarTulebis: qveyanaSi an regionSi Camosvla (imigracia) da
14
15
qveynidan an regionidan wasvla (emigracia). maT Soris sxvaoba warmoadgens migraciis saldos, romelic gansazRvravs mosaxleobis meqanikur matebas an klebas mocemul regionSi.
weli 1991-1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
gare migraciuli saldo (aTasi kaci) -790.2 -36.1 -35.2 -32.6 -27.8 -27.5 5.5 76.3 -12.1 -20.7 -10.2 34.2
rogorc cxrilidan Cans saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis gare migraciis saldo bolo wlebSi mniSvnelovnad gaumjobesda, rac uTuod metyvelebs cxovrebis pirobebis gaumjobesebaze. migraciis maCveneblebi aris absoluturi (CamosulTa da wasulTa ricxvi) da SefardebiTi. es ukanaskneli gaiangariSeba absoluturi maxasiaTeblebis SefardebiT mocemul teritoriaze mcxovrebTa saSualo wliur ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. TiToeuli maTgani SeiZleba gaviangariSoT migraciis mizezebis (axali mSeneblobisaTvis muSaxelis organizebuli Segroveba, axalgazrdobis saswavleblad wasvla da sxv.), sqesis, asakis, erovnebisa da sxva niSnebis mixedviT.
mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gaangariSebis meTodebi mosaxleobis zemoTmotanili statistikuri maCveneblebi axasiaTebs mimdinare da wasul periodSi mosaxleobis moZraobis suraTs. amasTan erTad biznesis, menejmentis da mTeli ekonomikis ganviTarebisaTvis didi mniSvneloba eniWeba mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gaangariSebas. mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxvonobis dasadgenad gvaqvs eqstrapolaciisa da asakgadanacvlebis meTodebi. eqstrapolacia gulisxmobs warsul periodSi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis cvalebadobis tendenciebis gavrcelebas momavalze. aq SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes iseTi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa mosaxleobis saSualowliuri zrdisa da matebis tempebi da sxv. mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba saSualowliuri absoluturi matebis gamoyenebiT SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes formuliT:
St S0 t xolo saSualowliuri zrdis tempis gamoyenebiT:
St S0 K sadac,
S t - mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobaa; S0
sawyisi dasawyisisaTvis:
ricxovnoba
- mosaxleobis warsul periodSi;
perspeqtiuli
saSualowliuri
periodis
absoluturi
mateba
K - saSualowliuri zrdis tempi;
t - perspeqtiuli periodis xangrZlivoba wlebSi. asakgadanacvlebis meTodi gulisxmobs TiToeuli asakobrivi jgufisaTvis Sobadobis da sikvdilianobis koeficientebis safuZvelze momdevno asakis mqone mosaxleobis ricxvis dadgenas.
16
17 mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis statistika
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis Seswavlisas statistikis winaSe dgas oTxi ZiriTadi amocana: 1) cxovrebis donis arsebuli suraTis daxasiaTeba; 2) cxovrebis donis struqtura (adamianTa calkeuli kategoriebis, socialuri jgufebis, regionebis, agreTve, qalaqis, soflis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT); 3) mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dinamika qronologiuri TariRebis (Tve, kvartali, weli) mixedviT; 4) cxovrebis doneze moqmedi faqtorebis analizi. ekonomikur literaturaSi ar arsebobs ”mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis” erTmniSvnelovani ganmarteba, amasTan dakavSirebiT sadiskusioa sakiTxi, Tu romeli maCveneblebis gamoyenebaa mizanSewonili mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis adekvaturi statistikuri asaxvisaTvis. analizis sawarmoeblad gaiangariSeba mTeli rigi maCveneblebi, romlebic Semdeg ZiriTad blokebSia dajgufebuli: _ mosaxleobs Semosavlebis maCveneblebi; _ mosaxleobis gasavlebis, materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis maCveneblebi; _ danazogebi; _ dagrovili qonebis maCveneblebi da mosaxleobis binebiT uzrunvelyofa; _ mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis, siRaribis donisa da sazRvrebis maCveneblebi; _ socialur-demografiuli maxasiaTeblebi; _ mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis Semajamebeli maCveneblebi. mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis Sesafaseblad zemoT moyvanili statistikur maCvenebelTa sistemis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebis (Semosavali, moxmareba) gamoyeneba ver uzrunvelyofs Seswavlili movlenebis Sesaxeb srul warmodgenas. aqedan gamomdinare, samecniero wreebSi mimdinareobs diskusiebi erTiani Semajamebeli maCveneblis gaangariSebis meTodologiis SemuSavebis mizanSewonolobisa da aucileblobis Sesaxeb, romelTa Seqmnas mravali mecnieri skepticizmiT uyurebs. bunebrivia, es ar aris erT-erTi urTulesi problema, romlis gadawyvetac
uzrunvelyofda mosaxleobis keTildReobis ganzogadebuli maCveneblebis formirebasa da praqtikaSi damkvidrebas. ramdenime wlis winaT, gaeros ganviTarebis programaSi (1995w.) mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis erTiani agregatuli maCveneblis gaangariSebis nimuSis saxiT SemoTavazebul iqna adamianis potenciuri ganviTarebis indeqsi (apgi), romelic Seadgens krebsiT indeqss da moicavs 3 ZiriTad maCvenebels, romlebic asaxaven cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovan aspeqtebs: 1. axalSobilTa mosalodneli sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobis maCvenebeli; 2) ganaTlebulobis miRweuli donis maCvenebeli; 3) erT sul mosaxleze mTliani Sida produqciis (mSp) realuri moculobis (dolarebSi, myidvelunarianobis paritetis safuZvelze) maCvenebeli. qvemoT ganvixilavT adamianis potenciuri ganviTarebis indeqsis (apgi) Semadgeneli TiToeuli maCveneblis indeqsi gaiangariSeba Semdegi formuliT:
Ii
X i X imin. X imaqs. X imin.
,
X i i aris maCveneblis faqtobrivi mniSvneloba. sadac X imaqs. X imin
da - Sesabamisad i – maCveneblis minimaluri da maqsimaluri mniSvnelobebi. kerZod: 1. axalSobilTa mosalodneli sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobis maCveneblis indeqsis gamosaangariSeblad, sicocxlis xangrZlivobis minimalur maCveneblad aiReba 25 weli, xolo maqsimalur maCveneblad _ 85 weli. maSin ”sicocxlis” indeqss Semdegi formulis gamoyenebiT gamoiangariSeben:
I1
X 1 25 85 25 .
18
19
2. ganaTlebulobis miRweuli donis indeqsi ganisazRvreba rogorc ori sub-indeqsis Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikuli: 1)
i21) 2
3 srulasakovan mosaxleobaSi ganaTlebulobis indeqsi ( wiliT da 2) moswavleTa erToblivi wilis (dawyebiT, saSualo, umaRles kerZod,
saswavlo
dawesebulebebSi)
indeqsi
(
i22 ) 1
3 wiliT,
I 2 i21 2 i22 1 3 3. ”codnis”
indeqsis
roca gamosaangariSeblad
mosaxleobaSi (15 wlisa da meti)
X imaqs. 100%
b) roca
.
dolars, (e.i. 5448 dolari aris msyidvelobiTunarianobis paridetis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli erT sul mosaxleze mSp-is realuri moculoba. Tu mocemul qveyanaSi faqtobrivi Semosavali
X3
X3 X3
( ) metia mis sawyis doneze ( ), e.i Tu gadametebis diskontirebas awarmoeben Sesabamisi
maSin formulebis
dolarze, maSin
I3
X imin. mniSvnelobad aiReba ”0”,
X3
X 3 5448
srulasakovan
moswavleTa erToblivi wilis indeqsi gamoiangariSeba 24 welze naklebi pirebisaTvis, xolo wilis sazRvriTi mniSvneloba aiReba rogorc ”codnis” indeqsis gamoangariSebisas (e.i. 0 da 100%). 3. erT sul mosaxleze mSp-is realuri moculoba gaiangariSeba dolarebSi myidvelobiTi unarianobis protestis gaTvaliswinebiT (mup), romlis koreqtirebac xdeba im SemTxvevaSi, Tu qveyanaSi faqtobrivi Semosavali 1 sul mosaxleze metia vidre sawyisi maCvenebeli, romelic msoflioSi aRiarebulia rogorc saSualo suladobrivi maCvenebeli. es maCvenebeli dReisaTvis Seadgens 5448
X3
X X
3 3 , gamoyenebiT. Tu maSin realuri mSp-s moculobis indeqsis gaangariSebisas aiReba am maCvenebelTa faqtobrivi mniSvneloba. mSp-s realuri moculobis minimalur maCveneblad erT sul mosaxleze aiReba 100 dolaris myidvelobiTunariani pariteti (mup), xolo maqsimaluri diskontirebuli mniSvneloba aiReba 5448 dolaris myidvelobiTunariani pariteti. maSasadame, erT sul mosaxleze mTliani Sida produqciis realuri moculobis indeqsi gamoiangariSeba Semdegi maCvenebliT, kerZod:
X 3 100 5448 100
X 3 5448 dolarze, maSin X 3' 100 I3 5448 100
zemoT Tqmulidan gamomdinare, ganviTarebis indeqsi (apgi) Seadgens
I ad.p.gan.
adamianis
potenciuri
I1 I 2 I 3 . 3
adamianis potenciuri ganviTarebis maCveneblis gaangariSebis meTodologia mudmiv srulyofas ganicdis. masSi jer kidev bevri sadiskusio sakiTxia. sxvadasxva qveynebSi es sakiTxebi sxvadasxvanairad wydeba, ase magaliTad amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis cxovrebis donis maCvenebelTa sistema 13 ganyofilebas moicavs. esenia: garemomcveli sfero, demografiuli situacia, dasaqmeba, Sromis pirobebi, TviT cxovrebis makroekonomikuri maCveneblebi (mTliani Sida produqti, erovnuli produqti da sxva), socialuri uzrunvelyofa, jandacva, ganaTleba, sabinao
20 pirobebi, kultura, dasveneba da garToba, satransporto uzrunvelyofa, erovnuli Tavdacva, moqalaqeTa samarTlebrivi dacva. amJamad yvela qveynisaTvis rekomendebulia gamosayeneblad gaeros mier SemuSavebuli maCvenebelTa sistema, romelic moicavs: 1. mosaxleobis demografiul maxasiaTebels (Sobadoba, sikvdilianoba da sxva); 2. sanitarul-higienur pirobebs; 3. sasursaTo saqonlis moxmarebas; 4. sabinao pirobebs; 5. ganaTlebasa da kulturas; 6. Sromis pirobebsa da dasaqmebas; 7. mosaxleobis Semosavlebsa da danaxarjebs; 8. sacxovreblis Rirebulebas da samomxmareblo fasebs; 9. satransporto saSualebebiT uzrunvelyofas; 10. dasvenebis organizacias; 11. socialur uzrunvelyofas; 12. adamianis Tavisuflebas. gaeros mierkve gamoyofilia sainformaciao ekonomikuri maCveneblebi, romlebic uSualod cxovrebis dones ar axasiaTeben, magram gamoiyeneba am ukanasknelTa gasaangariSeblad. maT ganekuTvneba: erovnuli Semosavali, mTliani Sida produqti mosaxleobis erT sulze, socialuri momsyaxurebis raodenoba da saxeebi, mosaxleobis simWidrove, kavSirgabmulobis saSualebebi, beWdviTi sityva da sxva. zemoT CamoTvlili maCveneblebidan SeiZleba gamovyoT zogadi da kerZo indikatorebi. zogads SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT: 1. mTliani Sida produqti an mTliani erovnuli Semosavali mosaxleobis erT sulze; 2. cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi; 3. mosaxleobis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi; 4. mosaxleobis potencialuri ganviTarebis indeqsi; es maCveneblebi mTlei qveynisa da misi calkeuli regionebis mixedviT zogadad axasiaTeben mosaxleobis cxovrebis dones, xolo kerZo maCveneblebi (saSualo xelfasi, saSualo Semosavlebi, saSualo danaxarjebi, kvebis produqtebis moxmareba, jandacvis, ganaTlebis, kulturis, iuridiuli samarTlianobis) calkeuli indikatorebis mixedviT axasiaTeben cxovrebis donis ama Tu im mxares. mTliani Sida produqti, romelic sabazro fasebSi gamosaxuli qveynis mocemul teritoriaze warmoebuli produqciisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebaa Sualeduri moxmarebis gareSe anu damatebul
21 RirebulebaTa jami mosaxleobis erT sulze zogadad kargad axasiaTebs cxovrebis dones. aseTnairad SeiZleba, agreTve cxovrebis done, zogadad, qveynis masStabiT davaxasiaTod mTliani erovnuli Semosavlis mixedviT mosaxleobis erT sulze. cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi SedarebiT Zveli maCvenebelia da mas amJamad zomaven samomxmareblo fasebis harmoniuli indeqsiT:
I
q p 1 iq p 1
1
1
1
sadac q1 - samomxmareblo saqonlisa fizikuri moculobaa saangariSo periodSi;
da
momsaxurebis
p1 - samomxmareblo saqonlis an momsaxurebis erTeulis sabazro fasi an tarifia saangariSo periodSi;
i - calkeuli saxis samomxmareblo saqonlis fasis an momsaxurebis tarifis individualuri indeqsia. samomxmareblo saqonelSi gaerTianebulia ori jgufis saqoneli: sasursaTo da arasasursaTo. pirvel jgufSi Sedis puri da puris produqtebi, xorci da xorcis produqtebi, rZe da rZis produqtebi, Tevzeuli, kartofili, xoli, bostneuli da sxva, xolo meore jgufSi - fexsacmeli, tansacmeli, kulturulsayofacxovrebo da sameurneo saqoneli, msubuqi avtomanqanebi, aveji da sxva. momsaxurebaSi Seitaneba satransporto, sabinao-komunaluri, kavSirgabmulobis, jandacvis, ganaTlebis da sxva uamravi saxis momsaxurebani. magaliTi. davuSvaT mocemul qveyanaSi, regionSi, qalaqSi da sxva teritoriul erTeulSi saangariSo periodSi gayiduli saqonlis da momsaxurebis saerTo Rirebulebam
q p 1
1
Seadgina
22
23
406 aTasi lari. maT Sorisaa sasursaTo saqonelbrunvis moculoba - 200,0 aTasi, arasasursaTo - 180,0 aTasi, xolo momsaxurebis Rirebuleba 26,0 aTasi lari. sasursaTo saqonelze samomxmareblo fasebi gaizarda 5%-iT, arasasursaToze - 20%-iT, xolo momsaxurebis tarifebi ar Secvlila. rogor Seicvala cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi?
I
q p 1 i q p 1
1
1
1
200.0 180.0 26.0 1 1 1 200.0 180.0 26.0 1.05 1.20 1.0
1.105 maSasadame, saangariSo periodSi sabaziso periodTan SedarebiT samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsma Seadgina 1,105, rac mianiSnebs cxovrebis Rirebulebis 10,5%-iT gaZvirebaze. mosaxleobis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebuli sididea da ase gamoisaxeba:
1 i q1 p1 I q1 p1 Cvens zemoT motanil magaliTSi :
I
1 0.904 1.105
rac imas niSnavs, rom mosaxleobas fulis imave raodenobiT saangariSo periodSi SeuZlia mxolod 9,6%-iT naklebi raodenobis
saqoneli da momsaxureba SeiZinos. esec cxovrebis saerTo donis daqveiTebaze mianiSnebs. zemoT CamoTvlili maCveneblebis garda, gaeros eqspertspecialistebi sxvadasxva qveynebis cxovrebis donisa da sxva miznebisaTvis, gvTavazoben integralur, sinTezur maCveneblebad gamoviyenoT erovnuli Semosavali, 50 wlis zemoT asakSi gardacvlilTa wili gardacvlilTa saerTo ricxovnobaSi da SinameurneobebSi sursaTze danaxarjebis xvedriTi wili. sociologiur gamokvlevebSi Zalian xSirad iyeneben e.w. ,,daZabulobis~ indikators, romelsac sami ZiriTadi maCvenebliT angariSoben. esenia: samomxmareblo saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT adamianTa moTxovnis dakmayofilebis xarisxi, danaSaulobaTa done, social-politikuri, ekonomikuri, ekologiuri da sxva sakiTxebiT ukmayofilo adamianTa wili. am maCvenebelTa (koeficientebis saxiT) martivi saSualo ariTmetikulis gaangariSebiT adgenen ,,daZabulobis indikatoris~ koeficientebs. Tu es koeficienti 0,40,8 farglebSia, eqspertebis azriT arsebobs socialuri daZabuloba, 0,9-dan 1,4-mde, lokaluri konfliqtebia, 1,4-dan 2-mde - regionSi socialuri afeTqeba, Tu 2-ze metia, maSin es metyvelebs masobriv socialur afeTqebaze. mosaxleobis Semosavlebi da xarjebi cxovrebis donis erTerTi mniSvnelovani indikatoria Semosavlebi, maTi struqtura da dinamika. mosaxleobis Semosavlebi aris is maqsimaluri Tanxebi, romlebic garkveul periodSi SeiZleba daixarjos moxmarebaze da imave dros periodis bolosaTvis SenarCunebul iqnas periodis dasawyisSi arsebuli raodenobis kapitali. amJamad, statistika aRricxavs da aanalizebs Semdegi saxis Semosavlebs: daqiravebuli Sromidan (xelfasi, premia, erTjeradi daxmarebani da sxv.), TviT dasaqmebidan (mogeba da sxv.), soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvidan (sakuTar mamulSi moweuli soflis meurneobis produqciis realizaciidan), qonebidan (qonebis gaqiravebidan, procenti anabridan, wilidan, dividendebi aqciebidan, procenti obligaciebidan, qira sakuTrebis gaqiravebidan da sxva).
24 ucxoeTidan miRebuli gzavnilebani (fuladi da arafuladi), qonebis gayidvidan (binis, agarakis, sayofacxovrebo teqnikis, manqanebis, miwis, pirutyvis da sxvaTa gayidvidan), axloblebisagan miRebuli fuli, pensiebi, stipendiebi, daxmarebani, fulis sesxeba an danazogebis gamoyeneba, arafuladi Semosavlebi (sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis warmoebuli, humanitaruli daxmarebis an axloblebisagan miRebuli produqtebis Rirebuleba). cxovrebis doneze kargad metyvelebs saSualo Semosavlebi mosaxleobis erT sulze (gaiangariSeba mTliani Semosavlebis SefardebiT mosaxleobis ricxovnobaze), misi struqtura (gaiangariSeba Semosavlebis TiToeuli saxelobis moculoba SefardebiT saSualo suladobriv maCvenebelze da 100-ze gadamravlebiT, da dinamika (gaiangariSeba dinamikis SefardebiTi sidideebis gamoyenebiT). Sinameurneobis saSualoTviuri suladobrivi Semosavlebi (lari) saqarTveloSi
25
saSualo Tviuri Semosavlebis ganawileba erT Sinameurneobaze wlebis mixedviT lari fuladi Semosavlebi da transfertebi daqiravebuli Sromidan TviTdasaqmebidan soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvidan qonebidan(gaqiravebidan, procenti anabridan) pensiebi, stipendiebi, daxmarebebi ucxoeTidan miRebuli gzavnilebi axloblebisagan miRebuli fuli arafuladi Semosavlebi Semosavlebi, sul sxva fuladi saxsrebi qonebis gayidva fulis sesxeba an danazogis gamoyeneba fuladi saxsrebi, sul fuladi da arafuladi saxsrebi, sul fuladi Semosavlebis xvedr.wili % arafuladi Semosavl. xvedr.wili %
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
130,5
152,1
171,9
190,2
224,4
257,1
297,6
378,4
52,7
57,5
60,4
67,4
87,5
107,2
132,9
166,1
24,3
28,9
32,2
36,6
39,5
40,7
42,5
52,8
21,4
28,9
30,8
34,3
32,1
32,2
27,2
30,4
1,6
1,0
1,6
2,3
3,3
1,4
3,9
3,4
12,3
12,2
8,3
15,6
25,6
32,5
41,3
63,0
8,5
10,8
18,5
12,5
13,8
14,8
17,3
19,3
9,6
12,8
20,1
21,6
22,7
28,2
32,7
43,4
92,8
92,4
88,0
87,5
79,1
81,7
74,1
86,7
223,3
244,4
259,9
277,7
303,5
338,7
371,8
465,1
18,6
44,4
41,7
42,7
43,2
46,7
50,4
72,2
7,0
8,8
8,3
9,3
5,3
6,9
5,8
10,4
11,5
35,6
33,4
33,4
37,9
39,8
44,7
61,8
149,0
196,5
213,6
232,9
267,6
303,7
348,1
450,6
241,8
288,8
301,6
320,4
346,7
385,4
422,2
537,4
58.43
62.2
66.2
68.5
73.9
75.9
80.06
81.35
41.57
37.8
33.8
31.5
26.1
24.1
19.94
18.65
26 am maCveneblebis Sedareba saarsebo minimumTan gvaZlevs warmodgenas cxovrebis doneze. Tu am absoluturi maCveneblebiT gaviangariSebT struqturas, miviRebT, rom fulad Semosavlebs saerTo SemosavlebSi eWira 2001 wels 58.43%, xolo 2009 wels 81.35 % amave wesiT dadgindeba arafuladi Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili. miviRebT Sesabamisad 41,57% 2001 w. 18,65% - 2009 w. am safuZvelze SeiZleba gavakeToT daskvna imis Sesaxeb, rom izrdeba fuladi Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili da mcirdeba arafuladi Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saSualosuladobriv Tviur SemosavlebSi, rac saqarTveloSi sabazro movlenebis ganviTarebiT aixsneba. dinamikis SefardebiTi sididis gamoyenebiT 2001-2009 wlebSi Semosavlebi saqarTvelos SinameurneobebSi gaizarda 465.1/223.3=2.08 -jer anu 208 %-iT. es ki metyvelebs cxovrebis donis gaumjobesebaze. SemosavlebTan erTad cxovrebis dones axasiaTebs, agreTve, mosaxleobis danaxarjebi, maTi struqtura da dinamika. mosaxleobis xarjebSi Tanamedrove periodSi aRiricxeba, rogorc fuladi (sursaTis, sasmelis, Tambaqos nawarmis, tansacmlis, fexsacmlis, saojaxo momsaxurebis, jandacvis, saTbobisa da eleqtroenergiis, transportis, ganaTlebis, kulturisa da dasvenebis, transfertis, danazogis, sasoflosameurneo qonebis SeZenis), ise arafuladi (naturiT momsaxurebis) xarjebi. xarjebis moculoba mosaxleobis erT sulze, misi struqtura da dinamika metyvelebs cxovrebis doneze.
27
saSualo Tviuri xarjebis ganawileba erT Sinameurneobaze wlebis mixedviT lari
samomxmareblo fuladi xarjebi sursaTze, sasmelze, Tambaqos nawarmze tansacmelsa da fexsacmelze saojaxo moxmarebis saqonelze
2001
2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008
201,8
216,7
219,8 245,7 265,4 289,6 322,6 386,2
106,7
113,0
116,8
131,6
133,9 146,6 155,7
177,5
12,2
12,4
13,3
14,5
14,9
15,1
15,3
17,7
25,6
7,6
7,6
9,1
9,7
10,3
12,3
13,8
janmrTelobis dacvaze
11,5
15,7
13,8
15,3
19,5
23,4
27,6
38,2
saTbobsa da eleqtroenergiaze
17,1
20,0
20,0
21,8
26,1
29,9
36,3
46,6
transportze
12,4
25,7
22,2
23,5
27,0
26,8
30,0
39,5
ganaTleba, kulturasa da dasvenebaze
7,3
13,3
6,2
6,6
7,9
9,4
12,8
13,5
sxva samomxmareblo xarjebi
9,2
9,1
19,9
23,1
26,5
28,1
32,6
39,3
arafuladi xarjebi
92,8
92,4
88,0
87,5
79,1
81,6
74,1
86,6
samomxmareblo xarjebi, sul
294,6
309,1
307,8 333,2 344,6 371,2 396,8 472,8
arasamomxmareblo fuladi xarjebi
27,2
50,1
49,7
45,9
38,0
42,1
46,6
62,9
sasoflo-sameurneo xarjebi
5,8
7,1
6,6
6,5
7,3
6,8
8,5
9,3
transfertebze
0,7
5,7
9,1
9,4
9,4
10,3
12,4
12,6
dazogvaze an gasesxebaze
20,6
23,2
26,1
22,7
13,7
19,1
21,3
31,5
7,4
7,6
6,0
4,4
9,5
qonebis SeZenaze
0,0
14,2
7,9
fuladi xarjebi, sul
228,9
266,8
269,5 291,6 303,4 331,7 369,2 449,0
xarjebi, sul
321,7
359,1
357,5 379,1 382,6 413,4 443,4 535,7
28 saqarTvelos SinameurneobebSi erT Sinamerneobaze Tviuri danaxarjebi 2001-2008 wlebSi gaizarda mTlianad 294.6 laridan 472.8 laramde anu 1,605-jer (60.5%-iT). zemoT CamoTvlili maCveneblebi axasiaTeben cxovrebis dones saerTod qveyanasa da mis calkeul regionebSi. magram isini warmodgenas ver gviqmnian calkeuli fenebis cxovrebis doneTa Soris gansxvavebebze. amitom statistika swavlobs Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis diferenciaciis anu cxovrebis doneebis (mdidrebis, saSualo macxovreblebis, Raribebisa da Ratakebis) mixedviT am indikatorebis gansxvavebulobis process. gansxvaveba ekonomikurad metad da naklebad uzrunvelyofili mosaxleobis cxovrebis doneTa Soris kontrastuli rCeba, agreTve, ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis mqone qveynebSic. amJamad, mdidarTa 20%-is Semosavlebis moculoba naklebad uzrunvelyofili mosaxleobis 20%-is Semosavlebs aWarbebs TurqeTSi 16-jer, avstraliaSi, axal zelandiasa da portugaliaSi - 8-9-jer, amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi, italiaSi, safrangeTSi, fineTsa da daniaSi saSualod 7-jer, belgiaSi, iaponiaSi, niderlandebSi, did britaneTsa da espaneTSi - saSualod 5-jer da ufro metad. saqarTveloSi mdidrebis bolo deciluri jgufis Semosavlebi da danaxarjebi daaxloebiT 40-jer aWarbebs Raribebis pirveli deciluri jgufis Sesabamis maCvenebels. es imas niSnavs, rom jerjerobiT saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis mdidarTa ekonomikuri mdgomareoba Seudareblad gansxvavebulia RaribTa mdgomareobisagan. mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis diferenciaciis gasazomvad msoflio statistikur mecnierebaSi mravali indikatoria SemuSavebuli. aqedan yvelaze gavrcelebulia koncentraciis korado jinis koeficienti. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:
29
K pi qi 1 pi 1qi sadac:
pi
im mosaxleobis xvedriTi wilia (nazardi
koeficientebis saxiT), romlebsac gaaCniaT mocemuli i -uri jgufis araumetes maqsimaluri mniSvnelobis toli Semosavali;
qi mosaxleobis saxiT).
-uri jgufis Semosavlebis xvedriTi wilia mTlian SemosavlebSi (nazardi koeficientebis
magaliTi (cifrebi pirobiTia).
saSualoTviuri Semosavlebi erT sulze (lari) 300 -mde 300-350 350-400 400-zevi sul
mosaxleobis ricxvi mln. kaci 1.9 1.4 0.9 0,3 4.5
SevadginoT saangariSo cxrili.
xvedriTi % 42.22 31.11 20.00 6.67 100,0
wili
30
31
1.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 4.5
maSasadame
0.42 0.31 0.20 0.07 1.0
p1 0.42
Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili
275.0 325.0 375.0 425.0 sul
mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebi jgufebis da saerTo ricxovnobis mixedviT lari 522.5 455.0 337.5 127.5 1442.5
mosaxl. ricxovnobis xvedriTi wili
saSualoTviuri Semosavlebi erT sulze (lari)
mosaxleobis ricxvimln. kaci
mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da ricxovnobis xvedriTi wilebis nazardi jamebi xvedriTi wilebis nazrdi jami mosaxl. Semosavlericxvis bis mixedviT mixedviT
0.36 0.32 0.23 0.09 1.0
0.42 0.73 0.93 1.0 -
p2 0.73
0.36 0.68 0.91 1.0 -
p3 0.93
p4 1.0
q1 0.36
q2 0.68
q3 0.91
q4 1.0
CavsvaT zemoT motanil formulaSi miRebuli sidideebi. gveqneba
K pi qi1 pi1qi
0.42 0.68 0.73 0.91 0.93 1.0 0.73 0.36 0.93 0.68 1.0 0.91 0.075 jinis koeficienti (Semosavlebis koncentraciis maCvenebeli) gviCvenebs Semosavlebis faqtobrivi ganawilebis gadaxras maTi Tanabari ganawilebis xazidan. Tanabari ganawilebisas jinis indeqsi nulis tolia, absoluturi uTanabrobisas ki – erTis. saqarTveloSi ukanasknel periodSi jinis koeficienti mTliani Semosavlebis (da agreTve mTliani xarjebis) mixedviT
izrdeba 2005 w.-0,44 2006 w.-0,45 2007 w.-0,46 da 2008 w.-0,48 rac cxadia cxovrebis uTanabrobaze metyvelebs. cxovrebis donis maCveneblebidan mniSvnelovania, agreTve, siRaribis indikatorebi. maTgan aRsaniSnavia siRaribis done, siRrme da simwvave. siRaribis maCvenebelTa garkvevamde, saWiroa vicodeT cneba sasursaTo minimumi (kalaTa), samomxmareblo minimumi (kalaTa) da sacxovrebeli minimumi anu saarsebo minimumi, medialuri da modaluri moxmareba. am ukanaskneli aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi msoflio ekonomikur-statistikur literaturaSi siRaribis cnebis mravalnairi ganmarteba ganixileba. aqedan yvelaze gavrcelebulia ganmarteba, romelic siRaribis qveS ara marto materialur, aramed sulier faqtorebsac gulisxmobs. am safuZvelze ganmarteba SeiZleba ase CamovayaliboT: siRaribe aris Semosavlebis (fuladi da arafuladi) ukmarisoba adamianis fiziologiuri da sulieri arseboba-ganviTarebisaTvis saWiro minimalurad aucilebel materialur RirebulebaTa da momsaxurebis moxmarebisaTvis. am ganmartebidanac Cans, rom siRaribe SefardebiTi kategoriaa da gansxvavebulia qveynebis mixedviT. magaliTad, msoflio bankis monacemebiT, Raribad iTvleba pirovneba, romelsac dReSi 4 dolarze naklebi Semosavali gaaCnia. saqarTveloSi ki amJamad aseTi Semosavali didad aWarbebs saarsebo minimums da saTanado pirovnebac saSualo macxovreblad iTvleba. sasursaTo minimumi (kalaTa) ewodeba kvebis produqtebis im nakrebs, rac fiziologiuri normebis, maTi kaloriulobisa da sabazro fasebis mixedviT, minimalurad mainc saWiroa adamianis fizikuri arsebobisa da sicocxlisunarianobis SesanarCuneblad. kvebis produqtebze anu sursaTze (puri da puris produqtebi, xorci da xorcis produqtebi, rZe da rZis produqtebi, Saqari, xili da baRCeuli) moxmarebis fiziologiur normebs gansazRvravs samedicino samecniero-
32
33
kvleviTi institutebi mocemul qveyanaSi adamianTa asakobrivi, sqesobrivi, cxovrebis bunebriv-klimaturi pirobebis, zneCveulebebis, tradiciebis, kulturisa da sxvaTa gaTvaliswinebiT. sasursaTo minimumis (kalaTas) mimatebuli arasasursaTo saqonlis moxmareba da gaweuli momsaxurebis Rirebuleba Seadgens samomxmareblo kalaTas (minimums), xolo amas damatebuli sxvadasxva gadasaxadebi da Sesatanebi, miviRebT sacxovrebel anu saarsebo minimums. saarsebo minimums xSirad siRaribis absolutur zRvarsac uwodeben. statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri moxmarebis fiziologiuri normebis safuZvelze, pirvel rigSi, angariSobs sasursaTo minimums, xolo danarCens saarsebo minimums (arasasursaTo saqonlis, agreTve, momsaxurebis, gadasaxadebis da sxvaTa moculobas) adgens im Tanafardobidan gamomdinare, romelic ukve praqtikulad Camoyalibebulia mocemul periodSi. magaliTad, dRes saqarTveloSi sursaTisa da sxva samomxmareblo RirebulebaTa Soris Tanafardoba saqarTveloSi Seadgens 0,4 : 0,6-s. es imas niSnavs, rom SinameurneobaTa SerCeviTi gamokvlevebiT mosaxleobis mTliani danaxarjebis 40% sursaTze modis. magaliTi: Tu sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebulebam Seadgina TveSi 100 lari, maSin danarCeni Rirebulebis moculoba saarsebo minimumamde, gaiangariSeba martivi proporciiT: 0,4 - 100 lari 0,6 - X lari
X
100 0.6 150 lars 0.4
aqedan cxadia, rom saarsebo minimumi Seadgens 100+150=250 lars. aseTnairad, pirvel rigSi, angariSoben Sromisunariani mamakacis saarsebo minimums, xolo danarCeni kategoriisaTvis gamoiyeneba Sromisunariani mamakacis mimarT dadgenili normativebi koeficientebis mixedviT. magaliTad, qalebisaTvis
es koeficientia 0,84. amis msgavsad gvaqvs bavSvebisaTvis, moxucebisaTvis da a.S. am indikatorebis safuZvelze dgindeba, agreTve, sxvadasxva suladobis ojaxebis saarsebo minimumebi. amis garda siRaribis gasazomvad gamoiyeneben, agreTve, medianur da modalur moxmarebasac, romlebsac siRaribis SefardebiT zRvars uwodeben. medianuri moxmareba moxmarebis sididea, romlis zemoT moxmareba gaaCnia mosaxleobis 50%-s, xolo qveviT, agreTve, 50%-s. modaluri - yvelaze gavrcelebuli moxmarebaa mocemuli qveynis mosaxleobaSi. siRaribis statistikuri maCveneblebia: siRaribis done, siRrme da simwvave. siRaribis done ewodeba Raribi mosaxleobis xvedriTi wils mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi. es SeiZleba gaviangariSoT formuliT:
K
q n
K - siRaribis done anu RaribTa xvedriTi wilia mTels mosaxleobaSi;
q n
- Raribebis ricxovnoba;
- mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba; amasTan Raribad iTvleba mosaxleobis is kategoria, romelsac saarsebo minimumze naklebi Semosavali aqvs. siRaribis done zogadad axasiaTebs mocemul qveyanaSi RaribTa xvedriT wils. magram Raribebis mTeli kontigentidan yvela erTnairi cxovrebis donis araa. zogierTi maTgani axlosaa Tavisi SemosavlebiT siRaribis zRvarTan. isini SesaZlebelia sul mokle xanSi gadascildes mas da saSualo macxovrebelTa zonaSi gadavidnen. amitom statistika
34
35
angariSobs, agreTve, siRaribis siRrmes. es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs siRaribis zRvridan (saarsebo minimumidan) Semosavlebis mixedviT Raribebis daSorebis saSualo manZils da gaiangariSeba formuliT:
p1
z y i
nz
sadac
p1 - siRaribis siRrme; z - saarsebo minimumia mocemul yi i
- Raribi mosaxleobis Semosavlis sidide);
periodSi;
- mosaxleobis ricxovnoba mocemul qveyanaSi, regionSi. formulis mricxveli asaxavs Raribebis moxmarebis saerTo moculobas, rac maT saarsebo minimumamde anu siRaribis zRvramde misaRwevad sWirdebaT, xolo mniSvneli - mTeli mosaxleobis saarsebo minimumis donis saerTo moxmarebaa. es maCvenebelic araa srulyofili indikatori, imdenad, ramdenadac gamokvlevis miRma rCeba TviT RaribTa Soris cxovrebis donis gansxvavebuli suraTi. amsitom statistikis Teoriasa da praqtikaSi SemoRebulia mesame maCvenebeli -
p2
siRaribis statistikis maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi
-iuri wevris moxmarebis (an
n
siRaribis simwvave
2
siRaribis ufro Rrma analizisaTvis am maCveneblebs angariSoben ara marto saarsebo minimumis anu siRaribis absoluturi zRvris mimarT, aramed medianuri moxmarebis (SefardebiTi zRvris) 60 da 40 procentis mimarT. es ukanasknelni gviCvenebs RaribTa qveda fenebis (Ratakebis) ekonomikur mdgomareobas, rac socialuri politikis gatarebis safuZvelia.
q
i 1
1 q z yi p2 n i 1 z
is gaiangariSeba Semdegi formuliT:
siRaribis maCveneblebi % 2005 2006 siRaribis medianuri mimarT medianuri mimarT siRaribis medianuri mimarT medianuri mimarT siRaribis medianuri mimarT medianuri mimarT
2007
2008
done moxmarebis 40 %-is
24.1
23.3
21.3
22.1
moxmarebis 60 %-is
10.1
9.4
9.2
9.5
siRrme moxmarebis 40 %-is
7.6
7.2
6.9
7.0
moxmarebis 60 %-is
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.7
simwvave moxmarebis 40 %-is
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.2
moxmarebis 60 %-is
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
saqarTveloSi 2005-2008 wlebSi, rogorc, siRaribis saerTo done aseve siRaribis siRrme da siRaribis simwvave
36
37
medianuri moxmareba 40%-is da 60%-is mimarT SesamCnevad klebulobs. rac niSnavs cxovrebis pirobebis gaumjobesebas.
jandacvis (samedicino)
statistika
cxovrebis donisa da siRaribis portretis maCvenebelia, agreTve, janmrTelobis dacvis mdgomareoba qveyanasa da mis calkeul regionebSi. zogjer samedicino statistikas sanitarul statistikasac uwodeben. statistikis es dargi samedicino movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobriv mxares Seiswavlis Tvisebriv mxaresTan mWidro kavSirSi konkretul drosa da sivrceSi. mis amocanebSi Sedis mosaxleobis daavadebaTa, sikvdilianobis, invalidobis, adamianis fizikuri ganviTarebis, jandacvis dawesebulebebisa da samedicino kadrebis moculobis, struqturis, dinamikisa da maTze moqmedi faqtorebis statistikuri Seswavla. amisTvis statistika iyenebs mis xelT arsebul mosaxleobis janmrTelobis, jandacvis, klinikuri statistikis, garemo samyaros mdgomareobisa da sxva maCveneblebs. mosaxleobis jandacvis mdgomareobas axasiaTebs rogorc demografiuli (sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba, mokvdaobis saerTo da specialuri koeficientebi da sxv.), ise sakuTriv avadobis maCveneblebi. amJamad sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba saqarTveloSi Seadgens mamakacebisaTvis 69, xolo qalebisaTvis 75 wels, rac garkveulwilad adamianTa janmrTelobis mdgomareobaze metyvelebs. samedicino statistika gansakuTrebul yuradRebas aqcevs 1 wlamde bavSvebisa da 1-14 wlebSi mozardTa sikvdilianobis Sesawvlis (sikvdilianobis anu mokvdaobis absoluturi da SefardebiTi maCveneblebis gaangariSebis meTodebi ukve cnobilia wina masalidan). samedicino statistika mokvdaobis saerTod da kerZo maCveneblebs ganixilavs sikvdilianobis mizezebTan (sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis, sasunTqi gzebis, saWmlis
momnelebeli organoebis daavalebebi, agreTve, ubeduri SemTxvevebi da mowamlva, infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebi da sxva) mWirdro urTierTkavSirSi. ganixileba TiToeuli daavadebis mixedviT gardacvlilTa ricxvi, maTi dinamika wlebis mixedviT da struqtura calkeuli mizezebis mixedviT. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom saerTaSoriso statistikis mixedviT 1 wlamde bavSvTa asakis kontigentSi CaiTvleba yvela bavSvi (miuxedavad wonisa, sigrZisa da dedis fexmZimobis xangrZlivobisa), romelmac dedis organizmidan sruli mocilebis Semdeg gamoavlina sicocxlisunarianobis Tvisebebi (ara marto sunTqva, aramed sicocxlis yovelgvari sxva niSnebi: guliscema, pulsacia da sxva). bavSvTa asakSi sivdilianobis mizezebSi statistika sxva saerTo faqtrebTan erTad gamoyofs, agreTve, anomaliurad dabadebulebs da ganixilavs maT rogorc saerTo ricxovnobis, agreTve, struqturisa da dinamikis mixedviT. samedicino statistikis erTerTi mniSvnelovani ubania jandacvis, samedicino momsaxurebis, sawarmoo travmatizmisa da klinikuri procesebis raodenobrivi Seswavla. jandacvasa da samedicino momsaxurebas axasiaTebs samedicino momsaxurebasTan dakavSirebuli Semosavlebi da danaxarjebi, samedicino momsaxurebiT mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa da samedicino dawesebulebebis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi. maCvenebelTa pirvel jgufSi Sedis jandacvaze gaweuli danaxarjebis moculoba, maTi Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan da mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan, samedicino personalis xelfasi, danaxarjebi samedicino aparaturis SeZena-eqsploataciaze da a.S. maCvenebelTa meore jgufs ganekuTvneba stacionaluri (saavadmyofoebis, sawolTa raodenobis, eqimTa raodenobis) dawesebulebebiT, agreTve, ambulatoriul-poliklinikuri (dawesebulebebis saerTo raodenoba, maTi Sefardeba mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan, am dawesebulebebSi eqimTa raodenoba, maT mier avadmyofebis miReba da a.S.) momsaxurebiT mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofis xarisxi. maCvenebelTa mesame
38
39
jgufs axasiaTebs jandacvis dawesebulebebSi avadmyofTa movla da mkurnaloba (hospitalizebul avadmyofTa saSualowliuri ricxovnoba, stacionarSi avadmyofis yofnis xangrZlivoba, poliklinikuri mkurnalobisaTvis avadmyofTa saSualowliuri ricxvi da sxva). statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris informaciia: janmrTelobis dacvis ZiriTadi maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi
moraluri statistika
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 21.0 21.4 20.3 20.6 20.0 20.3
eqimebis ricxovneba (aTasi kaci) mosaxleobis 10000 48.4 kacze saavadmyofoTa ricxvi 248 saavadmyofoSi 18.2 sawolebis ricxvi (aTasi) erTi avadmyofis 9.2 saavadmyofoSi yofnis xangZlivoba (dRe) poliklinikebis ricxvi 1100 poliklinikebSi erT 94.4 cvlaSi avadmyofTa miRebis ricxvi (aTasi)
narkotikuli nivTierebebisa da alkoholuri sasmelebis moxmarebis SemTxvevebs. mniSvnelovani amocanebi dgas, agreTve, klinikuri statistikis winaSe, romelic korelaciurregresiuli analizis safuZvelze miznad isaxavs daadginos mkuvrnalobis Catarebuli cdebi ramdenad sakmarisia miRebuli Sedegebis mixedviT kanonzomierebaTa dasadgenad da Sesabamisi meTodis gasavrceleblad.
49.6
46.6
46.7
45.5
46.3
246 17.8
242 17.1
244 16.5
245 14.6
244 14.1
8.6
7.7
7.4
7.3
6.8
1113 94.3
1123 92.1
1124 88.0
1140 84.8
1090 87.4
samedicino statistika swavlobs, agreTve, warmoebaSi profesionalur daavadebaTa raodenobas mizezebis mizedviT, warmoebaSi ubedur SemTxvevebs momuSaveTa 1000 sulze gaangariSebiT da a.S. amasTan statistika daavadebaTa mizezebis kvlevisas aanalizebs ara marto warmoebis kulturas da mavne pirobebs, aramed avadmyofTa qcevis wesebs da maT mier Tambaqos,
cxovrebis doneze metyvelebs, agreTve, moraluri statistikis maCveneblebic. igi Seiswavlis rogor sasamarTlo (danaSaulebani, samoqalaqo an administraciuli samarTaldarRvevebi, kanondarRvevebi da sxv.), ise samarTalgareSe, moraluri movlenebis (alkoholizmi, narkomania, prostitucia da sxv.) raodenobriobas Tvisebriv mxaresTan mWidro kavSirSi konkretul drosa da sivrceSi. moraluri statistikis amocanebia Seiswavlos yvela samarTlebrivi, agreTve, arasamarTlebrivi-moraluri movlenebisa da procesebis saerTo raodenoba, maTi struqtura danaSaulobaTa an adamianTa socialuri jgufebis mixedviT, dinamika da ganviTarebis kanonzomierebani, agreTve, moraluri movlenebis sxva movlenebTan urTierTkavSiri. moraluri statistikis amocanebSi Sedis ganixilos moraluri movlenebis ara marto negatiuri (danaSaulobani, kanondarRvevani da a.S.), aramed pozitiuri (Sromis, ojaxursayofacxovrebo, samSoblos dacvis, sponsoruli daxmarebisa da sxva sferoebSi) gavlenis statistikuri maCveneblebi. moraluri statistikis amocanaTa gadawyvetis mizniT farTod gamoiyeneba absoluturi da SefardebiTi sidideebi, saSualo sidideebi, SerCeviTi dakvirveba, variaciis maCveneblebi, dinamikis mwkrivebi, korelaciur-regresiuli analizis meTodebi da sxva. aucilebelia, magaliTad, iseTi mZime sisxlis samarTlis danaSaulobani, rogoricaa mkvleloba,
40
41
gaupatiureba, yaCaRoba, qurdoba, sxeulis mZime dazianeba da sxva ganvixiloT ara marto saerTo raodenobis, aramed SefardebiT mosaxleobis 10000 sulze, dinamikaSi qronologiuri TariRebis mixedviT, maT gamomwvev mizezebTan (SurisZieba, siZulvili, anerviuleba, xulignoba, wakamaTeba, Cxubi da sxv.) mWidro kavSirSi. es maCveneblebi saSualebas iZleva am danaSaulTa mixedviT erTmaneTs SevadaroT sxvadasxva regioni, qveyana, wlebi da gavakeToT saTanado daskvnebi saxelmwifos mier Sesabamisi RonisZiebebis gasatareblad kriminologiuri situaciis gaumjobesebis mimarTulebiT. registrirebuli danaSaulebi saqarTveloSi
sul registrirebuli danaSauli maT Soris: mZime danaSauli ganzrax mkvleloba janmrTelobis mZime dazianeba gaupatiureba Zarcva yaCaRoba qurdoba narkotikebis Senaxva gasaReba avtoavariebi, romlebmac gamoiwvia dazaralebulTa sikvdili arasrulwlovanTa mier Cadenili danaSauli
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
17397
24856
43266
62283
54746
44644
10326
17833
24320
29249
13158
13028
499
538
697
640
741
653
253
371
368
271
157
200
52
62
141
167
156
100
556
1316
2087
2751
1615
1167
1013
1733
1925
2160
1208
1008
5593
10634
16256
27657
18586
14814
1945
1941
2074
3542
8493
8699
308
385
445
499
511
551
617
557
755
997
674
759
aseTive WrilSi SeiZleba ganvixiloT pozitiuri moraluri movlenebi da procesebi. magaliTad, sponsoroba mosaxleobis socialurad daucveli fenebis dasaxmareblad unda ganvixiloT rogorc saerTo raodenobis, ise calkeulis moculobis, agreTve, SefardebiT donori organizaciebisa da socialurad daucveli mosaxleobis ricxovnobis mimarT (10000 sulze gadaangariSebiT) da a.S. amasTan moraluri statistika gaiangariSebs rogorc individualur, ise krebsiT maCveneblebs. magaliTad, Tu samarTlebrivi statistika TiTeuli sisxlis an samoqalaqo samarTlis danaSauls ixilavs individualurad misi gaxsnadobis procentis, saerTo raodenobis, mosaxleobis ricxovnobis an kidev calkeuli asakobrivi (mcirewlovanebSi, mozardebSi da a.S.), sqesobrivi (mamakacebi, qalebi) da sxva
jgufebis 100000 sulze, maSin saqme gvaqvs individualur statistikur maCveneblebTan. magram Tu gaviangariSebT ama Tu im saxis maCvenebels (gaxsnadobis procenti, mcirewlovanTa asakSi an mozrdilebSi, qalebSi an mamakacebSi) yvela danaSaulis mixedviT, gveqneba krebsiTi maCvenebeli, romelic gviCvenebs rogoria regionSi, qalaqSi an mxareebSi mdgomareobis saerTo suraTi. danaSaulTa gaxsnis procenti (gaxsnil danaSaulTa raodenoba Sefardebuli registrirebul danaSaulTa ricxvze da gamravlebuli 100-ze) an kidev damnaSaveobis koeficienti calkeul danaSaulTa mixedviT aris individualuri, xolo yvela danaSaulis mixedviT krebsiTi statistikuri maCveneblebi. amasTan krebsiT maCvenebels angariSoben saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikulis gamoyenebiT, sadac wonebad gamoyeneulia registrirebul danaSaulTa ricxvi. qveyanaSi da calkeul regionebSi damnaSaveobis dasaxasiaTeblad sasamarTlo statistika iyenebs kriminogenurobis koeficients, rasac angariSoben gamovlenil damnaSaveTa ricxvis SefardebiT 14-dan 60 wlamde (qalebisaTvis) da 65 wlamde (mamakacebisaTvis) mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan da 100000-ze gadamravlebiT. Tu,
42 magaliTad is Seadgens 500-s, niSnavs imas, rom yoveli 100000 kacidan mocemul teritoriaze 500 damnaSavea. maSasadame, am maCveneblis gadideba mianiSnebs kriminogenuri situaciis gauaresebaze da piriqiT. ganaTlebis, mecnierebis, xelovnebisa da kulturis statistika mosaxleobis cxovrebis done aisaxeba, agreTve, ganaTlebis, mecnierebis, xelovnebisa da kulturis sistemaSi. ganaTleba TavisTavad saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebaTa farTo sistemas moicavs. maT Sorisaa skolamdeli asakis bavSvTa saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi (baga, baRi, baga-baRi da sxv.), romelTa ZiriTadi movaleobebia aRzardos da moamzados 3-6(7) wlebis bavSvebi skolisa da cxovrebisaTvis, zogadi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi (dawyebiTi skolebi, saSualo skolebi, liceumebi, gimnaziebi, skola-internetebi da sxv.), saSualo da umaRlesi profesionaluri ganaTlebis saswavlo dawesebulebebi. saSualo specialuri profesionaluri ganaTlebis sistema moicavs sxvadasxva saxis saswavleblebs, teqnikumebs, kolejebs. umaRlesi saswavleblebi sxvadasxva specialobis bakalavrebs, magistrebsa da doqtorantebs amzadeben. aqedan gamomdinare ganaTlebis statistikis maCvenebelTa pirveli jgufi axasiaTebs ganaTlebis sistemis dawesebulebaTa raodenobas, struqturas da dinamikas wlebis mixedviT, agreTve, maT raodenobas 10000 macxovrebelze gaangariSebiT, rac ganaTlebis Seqmnil pirobebze metyvelebs mocemul qveyanasa da mis calkeul regionebSi. ganaTlebis sistemis statistikur maCvenebelTa meore jugfi axasiaTebs moswavle axalgazrdobis kontigentis saerTo raodenobas, maT struqturas ganaTlebis saxeebis mixedviT da dinamikas. ganaTlebis statistikis krebsiTi maCveneblebia calkeul specialobaTa mixedviT umaRles damTavrebulTa raodenoba mosaxleobis 10,0 aTas macxovrebelze, maTi struqtura da dinamika.
43 movitanoT statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris informacia saqarTveloSi studentTa ricxvis Sesaxeb dargebis mixedviT
sul studenti: maT Soris: pedagogiuri humanitaruli da xelovneba biznesi da samarTalmcodneoba sabunebismetyvelo mecnierebani sainJinro soflis meurneoba samedicino
bakalavriati magistratura umaRlesi da profesiul rezidentura i 74900 9664 9073 2407 17618
361 1865
57 781
30820
5002
1137
6488
845
673
6672 3754 7141
1233 130 228
1702 141 4582
kulturisa da xelovnebis statistika swavlobs xelovnebisa da kulturis (muzeumebis, Teatrebis, biblioTekebis, klubebis, dawesebulebebis) raodenobas, Semadgenlobas, dinamikas da sxva maCveneblebs.
44
45 Tema 2. SromiTi resursebisa da Sromis bazris statistika
SromiTi resursebisa da Sromis bazris statistika ekonomikuri statistikis erT erTi mniSvnelovani sakiTxia, romelic Seiswavlis SromiTi resursebis ricxovnobisa da Semadgenlobis , dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis, SromisanazRaurebis donisa da dinamikis, momuSaveTa Sromis pirobebis sakiTxebs. produqciis warmoebisa da momsaxurebis sferoSi mudmivad funqcionirebs sami ZiriTadi elementi: Sroma, ZiriTadi kapitali, anu Sromis iaraRebi da sabrunavi kapitali (Sromis sagnebi). aqedan mTavaria Sroma da masTan dakavSirebuli Sromis bazari. am sferoebSi moizideba muSaxelis ZiriTadi nawili da aq SemuSavdeba personalis marTvis ekonomikuri biznesmenuri da menejmenturi politika SromiTi resursebis maRalefeqtiani gamoyenebis mimarTulebiT. Sromis saerTaSoriso standartebis mixedviT, Sromis bazarSi ganixileba aqtiuri mosaxleoba, dasaqmeba da umuSevroba, mosaxleobis klasifikacia statusis mixedviT, samuSao Zalis moZraoba, Sromis nayofiereba, samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba, SromiTi konfliqtebi. biznes garemos mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs SromiTi resursebis, ekonomiurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis, dasaqmebulebis, agreTve umuSevrobis situaciuri movlenebi da procesebi qveyanasa da mis calkeul regionebSi. SromiTi resursebi mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli Sromisunarian mosaxleobasTan. Sromisunariani mosaxleoba Sromisunariani asakis, fizikurad janmrTel adamianTa erTobliobaa. Sromisunariani asaki wesdeba Sromis kanonmdeblobiT. saerTaSoriso statistikaSi Sromisunarian asakad iTvleba 15-dan 65 wlamde asakis mqone mosaxleoba. Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleoba iyofa or nawilad: Sromisunariani da araSromisunariani (fizikurad arajanmrTeli adamianebi, invalidebi da sxv.) mosaxleoba. swored Sromisunariani mosaxleoba warmoadgens SromiTi
resursebis ZiriTad wyaros, magram garkveuli nawili (warmoebisagan mowyvetiT moswavle axalgazrdoba, diasaxlisebi, CvilbavSviani dedebi, saSinao meurneobaSi dasaqmebulni da sxv.) ar monawileobs warmoebaSi. amitom Sromisunariani asakis mqone mosaxleobisagan unda ganvasxvaoT e.w. dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba, romelic moicavs meurneobaSi momuSave Sromisunarian, agreTve, sapensio asakis mqone adamianTa erTobliobas, I da II jgufis invalidebs da gamonaklisis saxiT arasrulwlovanebs, romelTaTvisac dawesebulia araumetes 4 saaTiani samuSao dRe. rogorc Cans, SromiTi resursebis raodenobrivi da xarisxobrivi Semadgenloba damokidebulia ara marto mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaze, aramed mis asakobriv, sqesobriv da sxva struqturaze. aseTi niSnebis mixedviT statistikam unda Seiswavlos SromiTi resursebis Semadgenloba da moZraoba, gamoyenebis efeqturoba, perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba, ganlageba qveynis calkeuli teritoriuli erTeulebisa da regionebis mixedviT da a.S. SromiTi resursebis ricxovnoba da Semadgenloba xasiaTdeba rogorc absoluturi, aseve SefardebiTi da saSualo sidideebiT. absoluturi maCveneblebia: SromiTi resursebis ricxovnoba mimdinare da perspeqtiuli periodisaTvis (yoveli wlis dasawyissa da bolosaTvis), absoluturi mateba, gamouyenebeli SromiTi resursebi, migraciis saldo. SromiTi resursebis gaangariSebis amosavali baza Sromisunariani mosaxleobaa, risTvisac saWiroa Sromisunariani asakis mqone mosaxleobis ricxovnobas gamovakloT imave asakis mqone araSromisunariani pirebis (I da II jgufis invalidebi, SeRavaTiani sapensio asakis mqoneni) ricxvi. SromiTi resursebis absoluturi mateba miiReba sxvaobiT periodis (Cveluberivad aiReben wels) bolosa da periodis dasawyisis absolutur monacemTa Soris. es sxvaoba gamowveulia rogorc bunebrivi, aseve meqanikuri moZraobiT. bunebriv moZraobas TavisTavad gansazRvravs bunebrivi mateba da
46
47
kleba. bunebrivi matebaa SromiTi resursebis Sevseba mozardi Taobis gadasvliT Sromisunarian asakSi, xolo kleba ganpirobebulia Sromis unariani asakidan gamosvliT, dainvalidebiT, saSeRavaTo pensiaze gadasvliTa da sikvdilianobiT. meqanikur matebasa da klebas gansazRvravs Sesabamisad Sromisunariani mosaxleobis imigracia (Camosvla) da emigracia (wasvla). gamouyenebeli SromiTi resursebis ricxovnoba ganisazRvreba, rogorc sxvaoba Sromisunariani mosaxleobis (potencialuri SromiTi resursebis) da dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobas Soris. igi Seswavlil unda iqnes mizezebisa da faqtorebis mixedviT, rac statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa. migraciis saldo, anu sxvaoba CamosulTa da wasulTa Soris, teritoriuli erTeulebisa da regione:bis mixedviT metad mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia SromiTi resursebis moZraobis dasaxasiaTeblad. gansakuTrebuli mniSvnelobisaa aRniSnuli maCveneblebis gaangariSeba Sromisunariani asakobrivi jgufebis (magaliTad 1625, 25-50, 50-59) mixedviT. SromiTi resursebis yvelaze mniSvnelovani nawilia 25-50 wlis Sromisunariani mosaxleoba, radgan igi iTvleba kvalificiurad pirvel jgufTan da meti energiis mqoned mesame jgufTan SedarebiT. mimdinare periodisaTvis, am absoluturi maCveneblebis dadgena warmoebs mosaxleobis aRweris, mimdinare statistikis (mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobis) masalebis gamoyenebiT. SedarebiT rTulia SromiTi resursebis dadgena perspeqtiuli periodisaTvis. mas miaxloebiT angariSoben (mTeli qveynis masStabiT migraciis saldos gauTvaliswineblad) Semdegi formuliT:
N t N 0 (1 K bunebr) t d Sr.asak. K Sr.Sr.asak .
sadac
Nt -
mosaxleobis
periodis bolosaTvis; N 0 - mosaxleobis
ricxovnobaa
ricxovnoba
perspeqtiuli
amosavali
wlis
dasawyisisaTvis; K bunebr. - mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis koeficienti;
t - perspeqtiuli periodis welTa raodenoba; d Sr.asak - Sromisunariani asakis mqone mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili mosaxleobis mTlian ricxovnobaSi;
K Sr.Sr.asak
- Sromisunariani mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobaSi. SromiTi resursebis ricxovnobis saSualo maCveneblebidan ZiriTadia SromiTi resursebis saSualowliuri ricxovnoba. igi gaiangariSeba mosaxleobis saSualowliuri ricxovnobis gaangariSebis msgavsad da gamoiyeneba SromiTi resursebis zrdisa da matebis tempebis dasadgenad. SromiTi resursebis kvlavwarmoebis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba specialuri SefardebiTi maCveneblebi. maT ganekuTvneba: a) SromiTi resursebis bunebrivi matebis koeficienti
N bun.mat.
romelic
iangariSeba
wlis
resursebis absoluturi matebis resursebis promilebSi:
saSualowliur
K bun.mat.
ab.mat. T Sr.r.
1000
abs.mat.
ricxvTan
ganmavlobaSi
SromiTi
SefardebiTi SromiTi
T Sr.r.
gamosaxuls
48 TavisTavad bunebrivi mateba miiReba SromiTi resrusebis bunebrivi Sevsebisa da bunebrivi klebis sxvaobiT. aqac mosaxleobis Sobadobisa da sikvdilianobis, koeficientebis msgavsad SeiZleba dadgindes SromiTi resursebis bunebrivi Sevsebisa da bunebrivi klebis koeficientebi promilebSi. b) SromiTi resursebis meqanikuri moZraobis koeficientebi (meqanikuri Sevsebis klebisa da matebis koeficientebi). es SafardebiTi maCveneblebi calkeuli regionebisa da teritoriuli erTeulebisaTvis dgindeba, vinaidan aq adgili aqvs mosaxleobis migracias. g) Sromisunariani asakis mqone mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili mosaxleobis mTlian ricxovnobaSi; d) Sromisunariani mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobaSi. e) mosaxleobis dasaqmebulobis koeficienti, romelic SeiZleba dadgindes ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa SefardebiT mosaxleobis mTlian ricxovnobasTan gamosaxuls promilebSi. didi mniSvneloba eniWeba Sromis bazarze ganisazRvros ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba. ekonomikurad aqtiuria 15 da meti wlis mosaxleoba, romelic dasaqmebulia ekonomikuri saqmianobiT an umuSevaria. statistika angariSobs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis xvedriT wils mTels mosaxleobaSi ama Tu im konkretuli momentisaTvis. dasaqmebuli ewodeba 15 da meti xnis mosaxleobas, romelic dakavebulia ekonomikuri saqmianobiT. amasTan pirovneba miekuTvneba dasaqmebuls Tu saangariSo periodSi is erTi saaTiT mainc iyo dakavebuli ekonomikuri saqmianobiT. statistika angariSobs dasaqmebulTa xvedriT wils 15 da meti asakis mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobis mimarT (zogierT qveyanaSi Zalian maRalia araSromisunarian asakSi dasaqmebulTa ricxovnoba. amitom dasaqmebulTa xvedriT wils angariSoben, agreTve 10 da meti asakis mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobis mimarTac). Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier umuSevroba
49 mkacri kriteriumebiT ganisazRvreba 15 da meti wlis asakis mqone im mosaxleobis raodenobiT, romlebic gamosakvlevi kviris ganmavlobaSi ar eweva ekonomikur saqmianobas, mzad aris daiwyos muSaoba da eZebs samuSaobs, xolo Serbilebuli kriteriumiT - gansxvavebiT mkacri kriteriumisagan, ar eZebs samuSaos, radgan xeli aqvs Caqneuli da imedi ara aqvs samuSaos Sovnisa. statistika umuSevrobis dones (rogorc Serbilebuli ise mkacri kriteriumiT) swavlobs Sesabamisi kategoriis umuSevarTa ricxovnobis SefardebiT ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan. bizness garemos mimzidvelobas didaT gansazRvravs samuSao Zalis ricxovnoba, Semadgenloba, moZraobisa da gamoyenebis situacia qveyanasa da mis calkeul regionebSi. farTo gagebiT samuSao Zala adamianis Sromis unaria, xolo viwro gagebiT - SromiTi resursebis nawilia, rac dasaqmebulia warmoebaSi. magram SromiTi resursebis dasaqmebuli nawili, samuSao Zala ar niSnavs am ukanasknelis srulyofilad efeqturad gamoyenebas. amitom samuSao Zalis gamoyenebis efeqturobis dasaxasiaTeblad statistikur praqtikaSi SemoRebulia samuSao dro. samuSao drois raodenoba warmoadgens potencialuri SromiTi resursebisa da samuSao Zalis gamoyenebis mniSvnelovan maCvenebels. samuSao Zala pirvel yovlisa dasaqmebulobis statusis mixedviT Seiswavleba. amisaTvis iyenebs mosaxleobis ekonomikurad aqtiuri nawilis (dasaqmebulebi da umuSevrebi) saerTaSoriso klasifikacias. gamoiyofa ori msxvili saklasifikacio jgufi: daqiravebulebi da TviTdasaqmebuli. daqiravebulia muSakTa is kategoria, romlebTanac kapitalisa da sxva aqtivebis mflobelebs gansazRvruli samuSaos Sesrulebis mixedviT saTanado anazRaurebaze gaformebuli aqvs SromiTi xelSekruleba. TviTdasaqmebulebia pirebi (samuSaos mimcemi, individualurad momuSaveni, koleqtiuri sawarmoebis wevrebi,
50 araanazRaurebad samuSaoebze momuSave Sinameurneobis muSakebi), romlebic iReben sammarTvelo gadawyvetilebebs an am funqciebs andoben (delegireba) sxva pirovnebebs. daqiravebulni TavisTavad daiyofa samoqalaqo da samxedro samuSao Zalad (am ukanasknelSi ar aRiricxeba miliciis, saSinao jarebisa da iusticiis samxedro nawilebi), agreTve, mudmiv, droebiT, sezonur muSakebad. TviTdasaqmebulebi, rogorc zemoTaa naCvenebi, sxvadasxva kategoriisaa. maT Soris: 1. samuSaos mimcemni is muSaknia, romlebic mudmivad muSaoben sakuTar sawarmoSi da iyeneben daqiravebul Sromas; 2. individualurad momuSaveni (erTi ojaxis an Sinameurneobis wevrebi), garkveuli Semosavlis miRebis mizniT muSaoben mudmivad TavianT sawarmoSi da, rogorc wesi, ar iyeneben daqiravebul Sromas (cxadia, saWiroebisa da gansakuTrebul SemTxvevebSi SeuZliaT gamoiyenon daqiravebuli Sroma sezonur an SemTxveviT samuSaoebze); 3. koleqtiuri sawarmos wevrebi (daqiravebuli muSakebis garda) is pirnia, romlebic rogorc koleqtiuri sawarmos mewileebi, muSaoben mocemul koleqtiur sawarmoSi; 4. araanazRaurebad samuSaoze momuSaveni, romlebic Sromas ewevian naTesavebis ojaxur meurneobebSi. amis msgavsad xdeba, agreTve, umuSevrebis statusis gansazRvra wina periodSi ukanaskneli dasaqmebis xasiaTis mixedviT. amis garda 1988 wlidan arsebobs, agreTve, ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia (dssk88), romelic gamoyofs momuSaveTa 10 saklasifikacio jgufs. es kategoriebia: 1. marTvis organoebis xelmZRvanelebi; 2. umaRlesi donis kvalifikaciis specialistebi; 3. saSualo donis kvalifikaciis specialistebi; 4. mosamsaxureebi (aRricxvisa da momsaxurebis, informaciis momwodeblebi, gamformeblebi da sxv.);
51 5. momsaxurebis sferos (vaWrobis, sabinao-komunaluri da sxv.) muSakni; 6. soflis meurneobis, xetyis da samonadiro meurneobis kvalificiuri muSakni; 7. samrewvelo, samSeneblo, satransporto, kavSirgabmulobis, samxatvro, geologiuri da wiaRiseuli sawarmoebis kvalificiuri muSakni; 8. operatorebi, memanqaneebi da sxv.; 9. kvalificiuri muSebi; 10. samxedro Zalebi. esaa dasaqmebulTa dargobrivi klasifikacia. amasTan erTad sawarmoebisa da organizaciebis doneze gamoiyofa xelmZRvanelebis (marTvis Tanamdebobis pirni), specialistebis (sainJinro-teqnikuri, ekonomikuri da sxva msgavsi samuSaoebis), momsaxureebis (dokumentebis gamformeblebis, informaciis momzadebis, aRricxva-kontrolis da sxv.) da muSebis (uSualod sawarmoo, satransporto, teqnologiuri operatorebis Semsrulebelni da sxv.) kategoriebi. statistika Seiswavlis, agreTve, samuSao Zalis moZraobas, Semadgenlobas sqesis, asakis, profesiebis, ganaTlebisa da sxva niSnebis mixedviT. samuSao Zalis moZraobasa da gamoyenebas axasiaTebs siobrivi, saSualo siobrivi, samuSaoze gamocxadebulTa, faqtobrivad momuSaveTa ricxvi, cvladobis, cvlis reJimis gamoyenebis, samuSao Zalis brunvis intensivobis koeficientebi. siobriv ricxvSi Seitaneba samuSaoze erT dReze meti xniT miRebuli yvela (mudmivi, sezonuri da droebiTi) momuSave. amrigad, am siaSi moxvdeba rogorc samuSaoze gamocxadebulni, aseve sxvadasxva mizeziT (mivlineba, avadmyofoba) samuSaoze aragamocxadebulebi, sxva sawarmodan mivlinebulni da a.S. siobrivi ricxvi ganisazRvreba drois ama Tu im momentisaTvis, magaliTad 1 ianvrisaTvis. raodenobrivad igi dadgindeba Semdegnairad: wina dRis siobriv ricxvSi myofT,
52 mimatebuli mocemul dRes siobriv ricxvSi CarTuli da gamoklebuli siobrivi ricxvidan amoRebuli. saSualo siobrivi ricxvi ganisazRvreba saangariSo Tvis yvela kalendaruli dRis siobrivi jamis (gamosasvlel da uqme dReebSi siobriv ricxvad CaiTvleba wina samuSao dRis siobrivi ricxvi) gayofiT Tvis kalendarul dReTa ricxvze (28, 29, 30 an 31). aseTi meTodi gamoiyeneba maSinac, roca sawarmo axalia da ar umuSavnia srul Tves. magram aseTi wesiT gaangariSebuli saSualosiobrivi ricxvi ar gamogvadgeba saSualo xelfasisa da Sromis nayofierebis gaangariSebisaTvis, vinaidan masSi moxvda is pirebic, romlebic xelfass ar Rebuloben mocemul sawarmoSi (damatebiT SvebulebaSi myofi dedebi, studentebi, romlebic imyofebian sawarmoo praqtikaze da sxv.), amitom aseTi kategoriis muSakebi unda gamoiTiSnon siobrivi ricxvidan da Semdeg imave wesiT davadginoT saSualosiobrivi ricxvi. Tveebis mixedviT saSualosiobrivi ricxvis safuZvelze (martivi saSualo ariTmetikulis gamoyenebiT) ganisazRvreba kvartalis an wlis saSualosiobrivi ricxvi. samuSao Zalis gamoyenebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia cvladobis koeficienti. igi gaiangariSeba samive cvlaSi namuSevari (Tu muSaobis reJimi samcvliania) kaccvlebis ricxvis gayofiT umaRles cvlaSi gamomuSavebuli kaccvlebis ricxvze (rogorc wesi umaRlesia pirveli cvla, romelSic yvelaze meti muSa gamodis samuSaoze). Tu cvladobis koeficients SeufardebT cvlis reJimiT dawesebuli cvlebis raodenobas, miviRebT cvlis reJimis gamoyenebis koeficients. samuSao Zalis brunvis intensivobas gansazRvravs samuSao Zalis brunva miRebisa da daTxovnis mixedviT, denadobis koeficienti, kadrebis mudmivobisa da cvalebadobis koeficientebi. Tu samuSaoze miRebulTa da samuSaodan daTxovnilTa ricxvs cal-calke SevufardebT mocemul periodSi saSualosiobriv ricxvs, miviRebT samuSao Zalis
53 brunvis koeficientebs Sesabamisad miRebisa da daTxovnis mixedviT. samuSaodan wasulTa erTi nawili (samxedro savaldebulo samsaxurSi, saswavlebelSi wasvla da a.S.) gansazRvravs aucilebel brunvas, xolo meore (sakuTari nebasurviliT, Sromis disciplinis darRveviT, kvalifikaciisadmi SeufereblobiT da sxv.) - zedmet brunvas anu denadobas. Tu zedmeti brunvis ricxvs SeufardebT saSualosiobriv ricxvs, miviRebT denadobis koeficients. misi gadideba metyvelebs kadrebian arasakmao muSaobaze da iwvevs mraval urayofiT movlenas. didi mniSvneloba aqvs agreTve kadrebis mudmivobisa da cvalebadobis maCveneblebis gaangariSebas biznesSi. samuSao Zalis erTi nawili mudmivad muSaobs mTeli saangariSo periodis ganmavlobaSi. Tu maT ricxvs gavyofT saSualo siobriv ricxvze, miviRebT mudmivobis koeficients. samuSao Zalis meore nawili cvalebadia. Tu miRebis raodenobas gamovaklebT wasulTa raodenobas da gavyofT saSualosiobriv ricxvze, miviRebTa kadrebis cvalebadobis koeficients. am koeficientis gadideba dadebiTad moqmedebs sawarmos muSaobaze, vinaidan sawarmos rekonstruqcia-gafarToeba moiTxovs axali samuSao Zalis miRebis aucileblobas da saTanadod aisaxeba produqciis gamoSvebis gadidebaSi. kadrebis moZraobas Tvis, kvartlisa da wlis ganmavlobaSi asaxavs samuSao Zalis balansebi. balansi moicavs samuSao Zalis raodenobas periodis dasawyisSi, mis matebasa da klebas periodis ganmavlobaSi da raodenobas periodis bolos. amasTan, mateba da kleba unda gaiSifros wyaroebisa da mizezebis mixedviT. matebis wyaroebia: organizebuli Segroveba, umaRlesi da saSualo specialuri saswavleblebidan miRebulni, sxva sawarmodan gadmoyvanili da a.S. klebas gansazRvravs gaTavisufleba xelSekrulebis vadis gasvlis gamo, samxedro savaldebulo samsaxurSi wasvla da sxv. balansis TiToeul muxlSi SeiZleba gamoiyos sqesi, asaki, kvalifikacia, staJi, ganaTleba da sxva niSnebi.
54 soflis meurneobaSi samuSao Zalis balansebi moicavs mozardebs 12-11 wlamde, sapensio asakis mqone da sxva pirebs, romlebic muSaoban agrofirmebSi. amitom am balansebSi samuSao Zalis raodenoba ara marto fizikur erTeulebSi gamoisaxeba, aramed pirobiT srul Sromis unarianTa raodenobaSic. samuSao Zalis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia kadrebis momzadeba da kvalifikaciis amaRleba. kadrebis momzadeba sawarmoebSi warmoebs, rogorc individualuri ise brigaduli formiT, agreTve kvalifikaciis amaRlebis skolebSi da a.S. statistikam unda daadginos momzadebuli kadrebis ricxvi profesiebis momzadebis wyaroebis, kvalifikaciisa da sxva niSnebis mixedviT. sawarmoebSi muSaTa kvalifikaciis doneze msjeloben saSualo Tanrigis mixedviT. mas angariSoben saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikulis gamoyenebiT, sadac variantebis mniSvnelobaa Tanrigebi, xolo wonebi - TiToeuli Tanrigis muSaTa raodenoba. saSualo Tanrigis amaRleba niSnavs kvalifikaciis donis amaRlebas biznesSi, rac ganapirobebs Sromis nayofierebis zrdas. samuSao Zalis gamoyenebas axasiaTebs samuSao drois, agreTve, Sromis pirobebisa da maTi dacvis statistika. arsebobs kalendaruli, satabelo, maqsimalurad SesaZlebeli, gamocxadebuli da faqtiurad namuSevari drois fondebi. samuSao drois balanss biznesSi aqvs Semdegi tolobis forma: a) muSaobis faqtobrivi drois fonds + mTliani mocdenebi = gamocxadebuli muSaobis drois fonds; b) gamocxadebuli muSaobis drois fonds + aragamocxadebani = maqsimalurad SesaZlebeli muSaobis drois fonds; g) gamocxadebuli muSaobis drois fonds + morigi Svebulebani = satabelo drois fonds; d) satabelo drois fonds + gamosasvleli da uqme dReebi = kalendaruli drois fonds.
55 samuSao drois balansebi moicavs, rogorc sasargeblo muSaobas, aseve danakargebs. es maCveneblebi unda Seudardes gegmurs da miviRebT samuSao drois gamoyenebis maCvaneblebs. amisaTvis xSirad angariSoben erTi muSis an muSakis mier gamomuSavebuli dReebis raodenobas mocemul periodSi. magaliTad, Tu weliwadSi mTlianad gamomuSavebulia 22000 kacdRe da saSualosiobrivma ricxvma Seadgina 1000 kaci, maSin erT kacze modis 220 dRe. Tu gegmuri maCvenebeli Seadgenda 260 dRes, maSin samuSao drois gamoyeneba udris:
220  100  84.6% 260 analizisaTvis mniSvnelovania, agreTve, biznesSi samuSao dRis saSualo xangrZlivobis maCvenebeli, romelsac angariSoben mocemul periodSi gamomuSavebuli kacsaaTebis SefardebiT erTi muSis mier faqtobrivad namuSevari dReebis ricxvze. es maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba ori wesiT. Tu mxedvelobaSi miviReT, rogorc ganakveTuri, ise zeganakveTuri saaTebis raodenobas, maSin gaangariSebuli maCvenebeli warmoadgens samuSao dRis srul xangrZlivobas, xolo Tu gamovTiSavT sazeganakveTo saaTebs, maSin ganakveTuri samuSao dRis xangrZlivobas. swored es ukanaskneli unda SevudaroT Sesabamis gegmur xangrZlivobas da miviRebT samuSao dRis gamoyenebis koeficients, romlis gadideba Sromis nayofierebis amaRlebisa da TviTRirebulebis Semcirebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani faqtoria. samuSao Zalis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia biznesSi Sromis pirobebisa da dacvis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi. is moicavs Sromis meqanizaciisa da muSebis spectansacmliT, specfexsacmliT, profilaqtikuri miznebisaTvis sawarmoebis xarjze muSebis kvebis produqtebiT (rZe, qoni da sxv.) momaragebas, travmatizmis, daavadebaTa gavrcelebis Sesabamis maCveneblebs. magaliTad, travmatizmis Seswavlis mizniT statistika adgens sikvdilianobis, droebiT Sromis unaris dakargvis, mudmivad dainvalidebis da sxvaTa
56
57
SemTxvevebs 1000 kacze procentobiT momuSaveTa saSualosiobrivi ricxvis mimarT da a.S. daavadebaTa Seswavla mizezebis mixedviT miuTiTebs sanitarul-higienuri pirobebis doneze biznesSi, rac Sromis dacvis pirobebis gaumjobesebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani winapirobaa. biznesSi samuSao Zalis gamoyenebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia Sromis nayofiereba. is konkretuli Sromis Sedegianobaa, romlis amaRlebas didi mniSvneloba aqvs sameurneo mSeneblobisa da mravali socialur-ekonomikuri amocanis gadasaWrelad. misi gadideba gulisxmobs muSis (muSakis) mier gamomuSavebuli produqciis erTeulze daxarjuli drois Semcirebas. statistika swavlobs biznesSi Sromis nayofierebis dones, dinamikas, maszed moqmed faqtorebs raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT da sxva sakiTxebs. Sromis nayofierebis done gaizomeba drois erTeulSi gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobiT an piriqiT, gamoSvebuli produqciis erTeulze daxarjuli drois raodenobiT. Tu gamoSvebuli
produqciis
raodenobas
aRvniSnavT
q -iT,
daxarjuli drois raodenobas T -iT, Sromis nayofierebis done
q T
gamoisaxeba Semdegi formuliT: T t q produqciis erTeulis Sromatevadobaa. sadac erTimeorisagan asxvaveben saaTobriv, dRiur, Tviur, kvartalur da wliur Sromis nayofierebas. saaTobrivi Sromis nayofiereba gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi gamoSvebuli produqciis raodenobis SefardebiT amave periodSi ZiriTadi da damxmare muSebis mier daxarjuli kacsaaTebis raodenobasTan. es maCvenebeli ar moicavs gacdenebs,
mocdenebs da drois sxva danakargebs. amitom is Sromis nayofierebis yvelaze zusti maCvenebelia. dRiuri Sromis nayofiereba gaizomeba gamoSvebuli produqciis SefardebiT muSebis mier gamomuSavebuli kacTdReebis raodenobasTan. am maCveneblebze ukve gavlenas axdens Sigacvlis mocdenebi. Tviur Sromis nayofierebas angariSoben TveSi gamoSvebuli produqciis raodenobis gayofiT muSebis (miiReba erTi muSis Sromis nayofiereba) an muSakTa (miiReba erTi muSakis Sromis nayofiereba) saSualosiobriv ricxvze. es maCvenebeli ukve damokidebulia Tvis ganmavlobaSi samuSao drois gamoyenebaze. gaangariSebis msgavsi meTodi gamoiyeneba saSualokvartaluri da saSualowliuri Sromis nayofierebis gasaangariSeblad. Sromis nayofierebis dinamika izomeba naturaluri, SromiTi da RirebulebiTi indeqsebiT. naturaluri indeqsi gamoiyeneba biznesSi erTsaxeliani produqciis warmoebis SemTxvevaSi. igi aris cvalebadi, fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Semadgenlobis. statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa gaarkvios calkeuli faqtoris (am SemTxvevaSi TiToeuli firmis Sromisnayofierebisa da xvedriTi wilis anu struqturuli cvalebadobis) gavlena saerTo maCveneblis cvlilebaze. swored am amocanis gadasawyvetad gamoiyeneba statistikaSi cvalebadi, fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Semadgenlobis indeqsebi. Sromisnayofierebis gaangariSebis zogadi principi erTnairia meurneobis yvela dargSi. magram gamoSvebuli produqciisa da Sesrulebuli samuSaos gazomvis specifika ganapirobebs Sromisnayofierebis donisa da dinamikis dadgenis Taviseburebebs mrewvelobaSi, soflis meurneobaSi, mSeneblobaSi, transportsa da vaWrobaSi.
58
59
mrewvelobaSi Sromis nayofiereba SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes warmoebuli an realizebuli sabazro produqciis Rirebulebis mixedviT. soflis meurneobaSi Sromis nayofierebis gaangariSebis specifika isaa, rom aq cocxali Sroma ixarjeba ara ubralod mza produqciis Seqmnaze, rogorc mrewvelobasa da mSeneblobaSi, aramed miwis, mravalwliani nargavebisa da pirutyvis movlaze. amitom aq jer iangariSeba Sromis nayofierebis arasruli maeCveneblebi - cocxali Sromis danaxarjebi erTi ha naTes farTobze an erT sul pirutyvze T da Semdeg sruli maCveneblebi (1 ha naTesi farTobidan an 1 suli pirutyvidan gayofiT):
t
miRebuli
produqciis
moculobaze
q
T q
sadac t produqciis erTeulis Sromatevadobaa. maSasadame, Sromis nayofierebis dinamika soflis meurneobaSi gaiangariSeba sabaziso periodis Sromatevadobis
T0 q 0 SefardebiT saangariSo periodis Sromatevadobaze T T T q j 0 : 1 0 1 q 0 q1 T1 q 0
T1 q1
maSasadame,
Sromis
nayofierbis
indeqsi
soflis
T0 T meurneobaSi gaizomeba Sromatevadobisa 1 da mosavlianobis an q produqtiulobis 1 indeqsebis namravliT. q0 mSeneblobaSi gamoSvebuli produqcia da Sromis nayofierebac izomeba Sesrulebuli samSeneblo-samontaJo samuSaoebis saxarjTaRricxvo RirebulebiT. transportSi Sromis nayofierebis gasazomad gadaziduli tvirTi (tona-kilometrebi) da gadayvanili mgzavrebi (mgzavrkilometrebi) gadaiyvaneba erT pirobiT naturalur erTeulSi. gadayvanisaTvis praqtikaSi miRebulia, rom 1 t/km tolia erTi mgzavr-kilometrisa. gansxvavebulia mxolod sahaero transportze, sadac 1 t/km-is TviTRirebuleba etoleba 11,12 mgzavr/kilometrs. yvela saxis transportis muSaobis moculoba, gadayvanili pirobiT naturaluri zomis erTeulSi gaiyofa muSakTa saSualo ricxvze da miiReba Sromis nayofierebis done. am doniT xdeba, agreTve, misi dinamikis gazomvac. vaWrobaSi Sesrulebuli samuSaos moculoba gamoisaxeba saqonelbrunviT (realizacia, Sesyidva an miwodeba) naturalur an RirebulebiT zomis erTeulebSi. am maCvenebliT gaizomeba Sromis nayofierebis done da dinamika wlebis mixedviT.
60
61 samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebisa da SromiTi konfliqtebis statistika
sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi biznesmenebs da menejerebs ainteresebT ara marto xelfasis, aramed samuSao Zalis daqiravebaze mTliani danaxarjebis moculoba, struqtura da dinamika. Sromis statistikosebis me-11 saerTaSoriso konferenciis rezoluciaSi Cawerilia: ,,samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebi aris samuSao Zalis daqiravebasa da Senaxvaze gaweuli xarjebi, kerZod: 1. pirdapiri xelfasi 2. gamoumuSavebuli drois anazRaureba (Svebuleba, sadResaswaulo dasvenebis dReebi) 3. premiebi da fuladi jildoebi 4. kveba, sawvavis xarji da sxva naturaluri danaxarjebi 5. binis danaxarjebi 6. danaxarjebi socialur uzrunvelyofaze 7. profesiuli kvalifikaciis amaRlebisTvis swavlis xarjebi 8. kulturul-sayofacxovrebo xarjebi 9. da sxva. 10. gadasaxadebi, rogorc Sromis Rirebuleba. amitom statistikam unda Seiswavlos zemoT CamoTvlili danaxarjebis moculoba, struqtura da dinamika, rac biznesmenebs, ekonomistebs, menejerebs miscems swori strategiisa da taqtikis SemuSavebis saSualebas adamianTa resursebis marTvis saqmeSi. Sromis anazRaureba firmebSi, organizaciebsa da dawesebulebebi warmoebs ori formiT: droiTi da sanardo. sanardo formis dros anazRaurebis sidides gansazRvravs Sesrulebuli samuSaos an momsaxurebis moculoba da xarisxi. misi sistemebia: pirdapiri sanardo, sanardo-premiuli, sanardoprogresuli, akordul-premiuli. pirdapiri sanardos pirobebSi
anazRaurebis sidide gamoSvebuli produqciis an Sesrulebuli samuSaos erTeulisaTvis ar icvleba. sanardo-premiulis dros amasTan erTad miRweuli xarisxobrivi maCveneblebisaTvis gaicema premiac. sanardo-progresulis SemTxvevaSi winaswar dadgenili gamomuSavebis normis gadaWarbebiT Sesrulebis TiToeuli procentisaTvis Sefaseba anu anazRaureba produqciis, an Sesrulebuli samuSaos erTeulisaTvis progresulad diddeba. akordulis dros Sesrulebuli samuSaosaTvis anazRaureba gaicema winaswari SeTanxmebis mixedviT, xolo akordul-premiulis dros, garda amisa emateba premiebic xarisxobrivi maCveneblebisaTvis. sanardo anazRaureba 2 saxisaa: individualuri da koleqtiuri anu brigaduli. individualuris dros TiToeuli muSakis anazRaureba damokidebulia piradad misi Sromis Sedegebze, xolo brigadulis pirobebSi - brigadis, koleqtivis Sromis saerTo Sedegebze. es ukanaskneli misi efeqturobis gamo ufro met gavrcelebas poulobs Tanamedrove pirobebSi. droiTi forma gulisxmobs anazRaurebis gacemas gamomuSavebuli droisa da kvalifikaciis mixedviT. mas ori sistema gaaCnia: martivi droiTi da droiTi premiuli. martivi droiTi xelfasis pirobebSi anazRaurebis moculoba ganisazRvreba satarifo ganakveTiTa (ama Tu im kvalifikaciis muSis erTi saaTis anazRaureba) da namuSevari drois namravliT, xolo droiTi premiulis SemTxvevaSi masTan erTad gaicema premiebic raodenobrivi da xarisxobrivi maCveneblebisaTvis. firmebSi, sawarmoebsa da dawesebulebebSi aRiricxeba xelfasis saaTobrivi, dRiuri da Tviuri fondebi. saaTobriv fondSi Sedis anazRaureba satarifo ganakveTebis mixedviT, premiebi, anazRaureba ZiriTadi Sefasebebis mixedviT, danamatebi monarde muSebisaTvis progresuli SefasebebiT, danamatebi Ramis saaTebSi muSaobisaTvis, danamatebi brigadirobisaTvis da sxva.
62 saaTobrivi fondi SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes Tviurad, kvartalurad da wliurad. dRiur fondSi Seitaneba saaTobrivi fondi da agreTve, CvilbavSviani dedebis anazRaureba damatebiTi SvebulebisaTvis, cvlisSiga mocdenebisaTvis muSisagan damoukidebeli mizezebiT, zeganakveTuri muSaobisaTvis da sxv. Tviuri fondi moicavs dRiur fonds da agreTve, anazRaurebas kvalifikaciis asamaRleblad mivlinebulTaTvis, morigi damatebiTi SvebulebisaTvis, warmoebisgan mowyvetiT moswavle axalgazrdebisaTvis, ufaso komunaluri momsaxurebis Rirebulebas da sxvas. xelfasis analizi warmoebs absoluturi da SefardebiTi maCveneblebiT. absoluturi gadaxra (gadaxarjva an ekonomia) gamovlindeba faqtobrivad daricxuli xelfasis donis SedarebiT absolutur fondTan. magram es maCvenebeli ar iZleva xelfasis fondis xarjvis swor suraTs. es gamowveulia imiT, rom xelfasis absoluturi fondi mocemulia produqciis 100iT Sesrulebis pirobebisaTvis. magram faqtobrivad daricxuli xelfasi Seesabameba sawarmoo davalebaTa Sesrulebis faqtobriv maCveneblebs. amasTan, produqciis gadaWarbebiT gegmis Sesrulebis 1%-ze ar ixarjeba xelfasis 1%, vinaidan yvela kategoriis muSakTagan mxolod erTi nawilis (sanardo anazRaurebaze myofi muSakis an sxv. kategoriis) xelfasi diddeba produqciis gamoSvebis pirdapirproporciulad. es garemoebani gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnas biznesSi xelfasis analizis dros. Sromis anazRaurebis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia Sromis saSualo anazRaureba. Sromis saSualo anazRaurebis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT, rogorc xelfasi, aseve sxva saxis gacemulobani. wliurad maTi jamis Sefardeba muSakTa saSualowliur ricxvTan mogvcems saSualowliur anazRaurebas. erTimeorisagan ansxvaveben saSualo saaTobriv, saSualodRiur
63 da saSualoTviur xelfass. pirveli gaiangariSeba xelfasis saaTobrivi fondis SefardebiT namuSevari kacsaaTebis ricxvTan, meore - xelfasis dRiuri fondiT SefardebiT namuSevari kacdReebis raodenobasTan, xolo mesame - xelfasis Tviuri fondis gayofiT muSakTa saSualosiobriv ricxvze. am maCveneblebis mixedviT SeiZleba gaizomos saSualo xelfasis dinamikac. Sromisa da anazRaurebis pirobebis gauareseba biznesSi Zalian xSirad iwvevs SromiT konfliqtebs damqiravebelTa da daqiravebulTa Soris. amitom statistikam unda Seiswavlos, agreTve, SromiTi konfliqtebis raodenoba, struqtura da dinamika. am SeswavlaSi unda gaiTvaliswinos 1993 wlis Sromis statistikosTa saerTaSoriso konferenciis mier miRebuli normebi. statistikosebi Seiswavlian biznesSi konfliqtebis (warmoebis SeCerebiTa da SeCerebis gareSe), gaficvlebis, lokautebis (ramdenime samuSao adgilis sruli an nawilobrivi daxurva) saerTo raodenobas mizezebis (xelfasis, premiis Semcireba, Tavisdroze gaucemloba, Sromis pirobebis Secvla sxva muSebisadmi mxardaWera da a.S.) mixedviT, warmoebis danakargebs, konfliqtSi monawileTa xvedriT wils da sxva maCveneblebs, rac biznesmenebisa da menejerebisaTvis aucilebeli informaciaa biznesis marTvis saqmeSi. statistikaSi ganasxvaveben SromiTi konfliqtebis Semdeg saxeobebs: 1. samuSaoebis Sewyvetis gareSe SromiTi konfliqtebi. aseT SemTxvevaSi sakonfliqto mxareebis mier wamoyenebuli moTxovnebis gadawyvetas molaparakebiT axorcieleben an warmarTaven iseT saqmianobas arasamuSao drois monakveTSi, romlebic uzrunvelyofen konfliqtis mogvarebas. 2. samuSaoebis SewyvetiT SromiTi konfliqtebi, romelTa or saxeobas gamoyofen:gaficvebi da lokautebi. gaficvebi aris mSromelTa erTi an ramdenime jgufis mier samuSaoebis droebiTi Sewyveta Tavis moTxovnebis SeTavazebis
64 mizniT, an win aRudgebian, gamoxaton TavianTi ukmayofileba administraciis gadawyvetilebaze an mxari dauWiron danarCeni mSromelebis moTxovnebsa da ukmayofilebas. lokauti moicavs warmoebis gaCerebas da xelfasebis gacemis Sewyvetas, raTa profesiuli kavSiri iZulebuli gaxdes daTanxmdes damqiraveblis (administraciis) mier SeTavazebul pirobebs. statistikis praqtikaSi gamoyofen konfliqtebis or fgufs: konfliqtebis pirvel jgufs miakuTvneben konfliqtebs, romlebic warmoiSvnen koleqtiuri SromiTi xelSekrulebis SedgenisaTvis, mewarmeebis warmomadgenlebsa da mSromelTa profesiul organizaciebs Soris warmarTuli molaparakebis procesSi, Semdegi sakiTxebis ganxilvisas: dasaqmebuloba(sakadro politika, personalis gadaadgileba, sawarmos daxurva, personalis kvalifikacia), - xelfasebi, premiebi da Sromis anazRaurebis danarCeni sakiTxebi, - Sromis pirobebi (samuSao drois xangrZlivoba, Sromis organizacia da Sromis usafrTxoeba), - profesiuli kavSirebis saqmianoba. - mSromelTa sxva jgufebisadmi mxardaWera samuSaos momcemTaTvis moTxovnebis wayenebis gareSe, - mTavrobis ekonomikuri da socialuri politikisadmi protestis gamoxatva an politikuri moTxovnebis wamoyeneba, - danarCeni mizezebi, romlebmac molaparakebani CixSi moamwyvdies da sxva. meore jgufis konfliqtebi warmoSobilia ara koleqtiuri SromiTi xelSekrulebis Sedgenisas, aramed Sromis anazRaurebis pirobebiT (Sromis anazRaurebis vadebis darRveva, xelfasis gadideba, inflaciebi). SromiTi konfliqtebis Sesaxeb informaciebs agroveben yovelTviurad. maTi detaluri analizis sawarmoeblad monacemebis dajgufebas awarmoeben Semdegi mimarTulebebiT: SromiT konfliqtebSi monawileTa jgufebis ricxovnobis
65 dadgena, konfliqtebis raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mosaxleobis ricxovnoba, romlebic monawileobdnen konfliqtebSi, samuSao drois danakargebis raodenoba, erTi gaficvis saSualo xangrZlivoba da a.S. es maCveneblebi muSavdeba calkeuli dargebis, regionebisa da qveynis masStabiT. SromiTi konfliqtebis saerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis rekomendebulia Semdegi maCveneblebis gamoyeneba: 1. yovel 1000 muSakze konfliqtebis Sedegad samuSao drois danakargebi:
konfliqtebis Sedegad dakarguli samuSao dro muSakebis saSualo siobrivi ricxovnoba
1000;
2. mSromelTa konfliqtSi monawileTa ricxvi yovel 1000 mSromelze:
mSromelTa konfliqtSi monawileTa ricxvi 1000. muSakebis saSualo siobrivi ricxovnoba rogorc analizi uCvenebs, Cvens qveyanaSi gaficvebs da sxva saxis samuSaos Sewyvetis procesebs ara aqvT masStaburi xasiaTi, es im azrs adasturebs, rom saqarTvelos ekonomika jerjerobiT muSaobs arasruli dasaqmebis reJimSi, miuxedavad amisa, mSromelTa mxridan ukmayofilebis gamoxatvis mizezad rCeba Sromis anazRaurebis gadaxdis vadebis uxeSi darRvevebi, fasebis zrdis pirobebSi Semosavlebis indeqsebis gamouyenebloba, xelfasebis dabali done da a.S.
66
67 Tema 3. sabanko da sadazRvevo statistika
ekonomikuri Teoriis ganmartebiT krediti (laT. Credirum sesxi, vali) droebiT Tavisufali fuladi saxsrebis an saqonlis gacema valad gansazRvruli vadiT fiqsirebuli procentis safasurad. ganasxvaveben moklevadian (erT wlamde), saSualovadian (erTi wlidan sam wlamde) da grZelvadian (sam welze meti xangrZlivobiT) kreditebs. sakredito urTierTobebs bankebi (ZiriTadad komerciuli) awarmoeben kreditorebTan. amitom statistika sabanko-sakredito saqmianobas swavlobs qveyanaSi an regionSi bankebis saWiroebis, TviT bankebis funqcionirebis da bankebis sakredito maCveneblebis mixedviT. bankebis saWiroebis statistikuri maCveneblebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba mocemul qveyanaSi biznesis da mewarmoebis ganviTarebis mixedviT organizaciebisa da mosaxleobis Tavisufali fuladi saxsrebis nakadis saerTo moculoba. am maCveneblisa da erTi bankis momsaxurebis moculobis safuZvelze SeiZleba dadgindes bankebis saWiro raodenoba mocemul periodSi. aq gaiangariSeba, agreTve, bankebisa da maTi filialebis saerTo qselis sidide, maTi raodenoba 100,0 aTas macxovrebelze da Sefardeba bankebis siWarbe an nakleboba mocemul regionSi. sxvadasxva statistikur maCvenebelTa safuZvelze angariSoben sabanko saqmianobis pirobebis SefardebiTi mimzidvelobis indeqss Semdegi formulis daxmarebiT:
I 5 I1 I 2 I 3
1 I5 I4
sadac I - sabanko saqmianobis pirobebis SedarebiTi mimzidvelobis indeqsia;
I 1 - safinanso nakadebis moculobis indeqsia mocemul qveyanaSi an regionSi;
I 2 - safinanso nakadebis koncentraciis indeqsia; I 3 - bankebis an filialebis raodenobis indeqsia; I 4 - arasafinanso operaciebis xvedriTi wilis indeqsi; I 5 - realuri aqtivebis dinamikis indeqsi. formulaSi motanili pirveli indeqsi gviCvenebs sabanko saqmianobisaTvis saWiro fuladi resursebis dinamikas (Tu izrdeba indeqsi, mimzidveloba matulobs an piriqiT). safinanso nakadebis koncentracia anu moculoba erT moqmed bankze an filialze bankTaSorisi konkurenciis maCvenebelia imdenad, ramdenadac dabali koncentraciis SemTxvevaSi bankTaSorisi konkurencia maRalia, xolo maRali koncentraciis SemTxvevaSi sabanko saqmianobisadmi mimzidvelobis xarisxi dabalia da konkurenciac klebulobs. mesame indeqsi gviCvenebs bankebis raodenobis zrdis an klebis tendencias (zrdis SemTxvevaSi - mimzidveloba izrdeba, xolo klebis SemTxvevaSi - mcirdeba). meoTxe indeqsi arasafinanso operaciebis anu sxva saxis biznesiT (samrewvelo, samSeneblo da a.S.) bankis dakavebuloba amcirebs bankebis zrdisadmi interess anu mimzidvelobas. bolos realuri aqtivebis zrda adidebs sabanko biznesisadmi mimzidvelobis xarisxs. aqve saWiroa ganvmartoT ra aris realuri aqtivebi. sabanko aqtivebisa da pasivebis absoluturi anu normaluri moculoba ver daaxasiaTebs srulyofilad bankebis gaxsnisadmi mimzidvelobis xarisxs. amitom statistikaSi gamoiyeneba realuri aqtivebi. zemoT motanili mizidulobis indeqsis safuZvelze biznesmenebsa da moqalaqeebs SeuZliaT airCion esa Tu is banki regionSi da masTan awarmoon urTierTobani.
68
69
sakredito Tanxebis gamoyenebis maCveneblad statistikaSi cnobilia sami ZiriTadi indikatori: kreditis brunvis ricxvi ( K ), kreditis brunvadoba dReebSi ( t ), produqciis gamoSvebis moculoba sakredito resursebis erT larze. brunvaTa ricxvi ( K ) ganisazRvreba Semdegi formuliT:
K
Q S
sadac, K - brunvaTa ricxvia mocemul periodSi (Tve, kvartali, weli);
Q-
S
9.2 12.8 11 2
mln lars.
kreditis brunva gacemis an dafarvis mixedviT;
S - kreditis saSualo naSTebi. kreditis saSualo naSTi TveSi ganisazRvreba Tvis dasawyissa da Tvis bolos sakredito davalianebaTa jamis orze SefardebiT, saSualokvartaluri naSTi sami Tvis saSualos, xolo saSualowliuri - oTxi kvartlis saSualos mixedviT. Tu gvaqvs mocemuli ramdenime Tvis dasawyisisaTvis sakredito davalianebaTa naSTebi, maSin saSualoTviuri naSTi gaiangariSeba saSualo qronologiuris daxmarebiT. kreditis dReebSi brunvadobis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa mocemuli periodis kalendaruli dReebis ricxvis ( T ) Sefardeba brunvadobis koeficientTan: t
da mcirdeba brunvadoba dReebSi, umjobesdeba kreditis gamoyenebis efeqtianoba. magaliTi. komerciuli bankis sakredito davalianebam 2009 wlis pirveli ianvrisaTvis Seadgina 9.2 mln lari, xolo wlis bolos anu 2010 wlis dasawyisSi 12,8 lari. kreditis brunvam dabrunebadobis mixedviT Seadgina 40,0 mln lari. amoxsna saSualowliuri sakredito naSTebi Seadgens:
T K
sadac, T - kalendaruli dReebis ricxvia mocemul periodSi. gacemuli kreditis erT larze damatebiT gamoSvebuli produqciis raodenoba gaiangariSeba gamoSvebuli produqciis (gacemuli kreditis gamoyenebis xarjze) SefardebiT gacemuli kreditis moculobasTan. Tu izrdeba am maCveneblisa da agreTve, brunvadobis koeficientis mniSvneloba
Q 40.0 3.64 11 S T 360 t 99 dRe K 3.64
brunvadobis koeficienti: brunvadoba dReebSi:
K
Tanamedrove sabanko sistemaSi erTerTi mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs mosaxleobis Tavisufali fuladi saxsrebis mobilizacias da miznobriv gamoyenebas. amis garda bankebi awarmoeben, agreTve, sakredito operaciebs, mosaxleobidan sabinao qiris, sayofacxovrebo da kavSirabmulobis momsaxurebis gadaxdisa da sxva operaciebs, rac afarToebs maTi moqmedebis sferos da pasuxismgeblobas Tavisufali fuladi Tanxebis efeqturad gamoyenebis saqmeSi. mosaxloebis Tavisufali fuladi saxsrebi, rac bankebSi Seitaneba anabrebis saxiT, SeiZleba iyos mokiTxvamde, vadiani da momgebiani, xolo gacemuli krediti SeiZleba iyos rogorc moklevadiani, ise grZelvadiani. statistika calkeuli regionebis mixedviT bankebis saerTo qseliTa da maTi raodenobiT mosaxleobis saSualo wliuri ricxovnobis 1000 sulze, axasiaTebs macxovrebelTa uzrunvelyofis xarisxs saSemnaxvelo saqmis organizaciiT, xolo meanabreTa saerTo ricxviT, maTi struqturiT qalaqisa
70
71
da soflis mcxovrebTan, agreTve, socialuri niSnebiT, axasiaTebs anabrebis ganawilebas da a.S. TviT anabrebs statistika swavlobs maTi saSualo sididiT erT meanabreze (naSTebis jami gayofili meanabreTa ricxvze) anabrebis saSualo sididiT erT mcxdovrebze, wlebis mixedviT anabrebis absolutur matebas, zrdisa da matebis tempebsa da sxva. saanabro operaciebs statistika axasiaTebs Senatanebis (mokiTxvamde, vadiani, momgebiani) saerTo brunvis, anabrebis raodenobis, anabrebis naSTebis, dinamikis, mogebaTa raodenobis, maTi Rirebulebis, Senaxvis saSualo vadis, brunvaTa ricxvis, anabrebis mozidvisa da Cawolis koeficientebisa da sxva maCveneblebis mixedviT. am maCvenebelTa statistikur gaangariSebebSi mniSvnelovania anabrebis saSualo naSTis gaangariSeba. statistika mas angariSobs saSualo qronologiuris
0.5S1 S 2 S 3 0.5S n n 1 S1 , S 2 , S 3 ,S n - qronologiuri periodebis n qronologiuri anabrebis naSTebia, xolo
S
daxmarebiT. sadac
dasawyisSi periodebis ricxvi. Tu Senatanebi wlis manZilze Zalian mkveTrad icvleba, maSin umjobesia gamoviyenoT saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikulis formula:
S
Sf f
sadac S - larebis raodenoba, romlebic inaxeboda ama Tu im periodiT;
f
- Senaxvis periodis dReebis ricxvi. Tu am formulas SevabrunebT, miviRebT Senaxvis saSualo vadas.
wlis manZilze saSemnaxvelo bankSi sabrunavi uwyisiT cnobilia anabrebis ukan dabrunebis Tanxa (
S ). Tu am Tanxas
SevufardebT anabrebis saSualo naSTs ( S ), miviRebT brunvadobis koeficients. Tu wlis manZilze kalendaruli dReebis raodenobas SevufardebT brunvadobis koeficients, miviRebT brunvadobas dReebSi. periodis ganmavlobaSi anabrebis Semosvlasa da gasvlas Soris sxvaoba anabrebis mozidvis absolituri maCvenebelia. miTi SefardebiT periodis dasawyisSi anabrebis naSTan miReba anabrebis mozidvis koeficienti, xolo periodis ganmavlobaSi anabrebis SemosavlobaTa jamTan - anabrebis Cawolis xarisxi. anabrebis Cawolis koeficientisa da Senaxvis vadis mixedviT SeiZleba vimsjeloT mosaxleobis danazogebis stabilurobaze, rac cxovrebis donis erTerTi statistikuri maCvenebelia. biznesisa da menejmentis saqmianobaSi mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs aradeterminirebul, SemTxveviT, stoqastur movlenebsa da procesebs. amaTgan garkveuli nawili (stiqiuri ubedurebani, avadmyofobani, avariebi, travmatizmi, ubeduri SemTxvevebi, sikvdilianoba, mousavlianoba gvalvebis gamo da sxva) zogjer masobriv xasiaTs Rebulobs. amitom qveyanaSi arsebobs sadazRvevo sistema, romelic iTvaliswinebs calkeuli pirebis socialuri dacvisa da qonebis anazRaurebis safinanso uzrunvelyofas. statistika, rogorc masobrivi socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobriobis Semswavleli mecniereba, farTod gamoiyeneba am tipis safinanso-ekonomikur urTierTobaTa Seswavlis saqmeSiac. dazRvevis sistema SeiZleba iyos saxelmwifoebrivi da kerZo. orive maTgani SeiZleba moicavdes socialur, pirad da qonebriv dazRvevas. sazogadoebaSi yvelaze adre warmoiSva qonebrivi dazRveva, rac Tavidanve dakavSirebuli iyo avariebTan, stiqiur ubedurebasTan da qurdobasTan. statistika Seiswavlis am
72 movlenebis raodenobriobas rogorc absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi maCveneblebiT. absoluturi an moculobiTi maCveneblebia: saerTo sadazRvevo Tanxa, sadazRvevo mindori, sadazRvevo obieqtebis ricxvi, dazaralebuli obieqtebis ricxvi, sadazRvevo SemTxvevaTa raodenoba da sxva. saerTo sadazRvevo Tanxa ganisazRvreba avariebis, stiqiuri ubedurebisa da qurdobis albaTobis mixedviT. vinaidan urTierTdamoukidebeli SemTxveviTi sidideebia, amitom maTi albaTobis jami udris calkeuli SemTxveviTi sididis albaTobaTa jams; soflis meurneobaSi qonebrivi dazRveva xSirad vrceldeba mousavlianobis SemTxvevebze (setyva, gvalva, stiqiuri ubedureba da sxva). Tu magaliTad, dazRveva 50%iania, maSin saxelmwifo aanazRaurebs saSualo saheqtaro da faqtiur mosavlianobaTa Soris sxvaobis naxevars da a.S. yvelaze gavrcelebuli da didmasStabiania socialuri dazRveva. saxelmwifo institucionaluri erTeulebis miznobrivi socialuri anaricxebis xarjze qmnis biujets, romelsac Semdeg iyenebs moqalaqeTa dazRvevisaTvis avadmyofobis, travmatizmis, sapensio, mSobiarobis, Cvili bavSvebis da sxvaTa uzrunvelsayofad. statistika Seiswavlis araSromisunarianTa saerTo ricxovnobas, maT struqturas, sqesis, asakis, socialuri da sxva niSnebis mixedviT, daavadebaTa saerTo ricxovnobas, dedebis da Cvili bavSvebis saerTo ricxovnobas, romelsac gaeweva ufaso samedicino momsaxureba, daxmarebani fexmZimobisa da mSobiarobis dros, Svebulebis anazRaureba, Seiswavlis pensionerTa saerTo ricxovnobas da maT struqturas moxucebulobis, avadmyofobis, marCenalis dakargvis gamo, invalidobis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT. aqve gamoiyofa invalidebi 100%-iani (I jgufi). 50%iani (II jgufi) da 25%-iani (III jgufi) Sromis unarianobis dakargviT. statistika angariSobs agreTve, socialuri dazRvevis SefardebiT maCveneblebs. aqedan mniSvnelovania daavadebaTa da
73 travmatizmis SemTxvevaTa koeficienti (am mizezebiT gamowveul araSromisunarianTa ricxvi 10000 momuSaveze), daavadebis sirTulis koeficienti (erTi daavadebis saSualo xangrZlivoba), daavadebis da travmatizmis saSiSroebis koeficienti (daavadebiT an travmatizmiT dakargul dReTa raodenoba 10000 momuSaveze) da a.S. dazRvevis erTerTi saxeobaa agreTve, piradi dazRveva. piradi dazRvevis saxeebia ubeduri SemTxvevebisa sicocxlis dazRveva. ubeduri SemTxvevebi (sikvdili an Sromisunarianobis dakargva) savsebiT albaTur xasiaTs atarebs da dazRvevis gadaxda warmoebs maSin, Tu SemTxvevebi moxda afeTqebiT, transportSi iaraRis gamoyenebiT, sidamwvris, daxrCobis, cxovebis Tavdasxmisa da sxva SemTxvevebiT. ubeduri SemTxvevebis dazRveva umTavresad erTi wlis vadiT xdeba. 2009 wlis 31 dekembris mdgomareobiT saqarTvelos sadazRvevo bazarze moqmedebda 14 sadazRvevo kompania. mzRvevelebis mier mowodebuli monacemebidan gamomdinare, moziduli premiis mixedviT, romelic sadazRvevo xelSekrulebebSi dafiqsirebul jamur sadazRvevo premias warmoadgens, sadazRvevo bazris koncentracia 83.6 procentiT xuT sadazRvevo kompaniaze modis. 2009 wlis ganmavlobaSi gaformda 1,832,453 sadazRvevo polisi. moqmedi polisebidan 116,568 Seadgenda fizikur pirebze gacemul polisebs, 2009 wlis ganmavlobaSi dazRveuli saxmeleTo satransporto saSualebaTa raodenoba 29,936 Seadgens, xolo sahaero da mcuravi satransporto saSualebaTa raodenoba, Sesabamisad 43-is da 17-is tolia. statistikuri angariSgebis mixedviT 2009 wlis ganmavlobaSi mozidulma jamurma premiam 372.4 mln lari Seadgina, xolo mzRvevelebis mier sakuTari riskebis gadanawilebis mizniT gaformebuli gadazRvevis xelSekrulebebis Sesabamisma gadazRvevis premiam 48.6 mln lari Seadgina. moziduli jamuri premia 2008 wlis Sesabamis maCvenebels 34 procentiT, xolo 2007 wlis maCvenebels 213 procentiT aRemateba. rogorc
74 monacemebidan Cans, 2009 wels moziduli premiebis zrdis tendencia Semcirebulia 2008 welTan SedarebiT, radgan 2008 wlis moziduli premia 135 procentiT aRemateboda 2007 wlis monacems. aRniSnuli maRali zrdis tempi mniSvnelovanwilad ganapiroba janmrTelobis dazRvevis saxelmwifo programis amoqmedebam, romelsac sadazRvevo bazarze sakmaod didi wili uWiravs. 2009 wels wina welTan SedarebiT zogierT saxeobaSi SeiniSneboda moziduli premiis Semcirebac (sicocxlis dazRveva, tvirTebis dazRveva, qonebis dazRveva, saxmeleTo satransporto saSualebaTa dazRveva), Tumca saerTo jamSi, bazris moculoba 1/3-iT aris gazrdili. aRniSnuli zrda didwilad ganapiroba samedicino dazRvevis saxeobaSi (54 procenti) moziduli premiis zrdam, radgan es saxeoba ZiriTad nawils warmoadgens jamur monacemebSi da misi cvlileba mniSvnelovnad aisaxeba saerTo monacemebze. moziduli jamuri premiis maCveneblebis mixedviT SeiZleba gamovyoT qonebis (8.2 procenti), saxmeleTo satransporto saSualebaTa (7.6 procenti) da valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis (5.4 procenti) dazRveva. dazRvevis sxva saxeobebi metnaklebad Tanabari TanafardobiT monawileoben mozidul premiaSi. aqve unda gamovyoT dazRvevis 2 saxeoba, sadac saqmianoba saerTod ar ganxorcielebula, es saxeobebia: sarkinigzo satransporto saSualebaTa dazRveva da iuridiuli xarjebis dazRveva. 2009 wlis sadazRvevo Semosavlis 77.9 procents samedicino dazRveva Seadgens, xolo 8.1 procentiT meore adgilze saxmeleTo satransporto saSualebaTa dazRveva modis. aseve dazRvevis sxva saxeobebidan sadazRvevo SemosavalSi SedarebiT maRali wiliT SeiZleba gamovyoT qonebis (3.7 procenti) da valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis (3.2 procenti) dazRveva. sadazRvevo kompaniebis 2009 wlis sadazRvevo zaralis odenoba 173.1 mln lars Seadgens. aqedan 155.1 mln lari samedicino dazRvevaze modis. sxva saxeobebTan SedarebiT sadazRvevo
75 zaralebSi 6.5 procentiT mniSvnelovani wili uWiravs saxmeleTo satransporto saSualebaTa dazRvevas, aseve SeiZleba gamovyoT valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis dazRveva 1.5 procentiT. Ffulis Rirebulebis zrda procentis daricxvisas. investirebuli an nasesxebi fuli warmoadgens anabris an valis ZiriTad Tanxas da mas uwodeben prinsipals. investirebuli fuli sargeblis saxiT gamoimuSavebs procents, anu mas ericxeba procenti, romelsac investori iRebs da piriqiT, nasesxeb fulze msesxebeli ixdis procents. martivi procentis SemTxvevaSi, wlis ganmavlobaSi procentis saxiT daricxuli Tanxa ar emateba ZiriTad kapitals (prinsipals.) mag: 100 l.-ze gadasaxdeli (an misaRebi) 15%-iani martivi saprocento ganakveTis SemTxvevaSi daricxuli Tanxebi pirvel, meore da mesame wels Sesabamisad iqneba 15 l., 30 l, da 45 l. martivi procentis SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi formulebi:
I
100 I 100 I PRT p T 100 an RT an PR
sadac: P = prinsipali (ZiriTadi Tanxa) R = wliuri saprocento ganakveTi % T = dro (wlebis raodenoba) I = procentis saxiT dagrovili Tanxa magaliTi: pirovneba yoveli wlis pirvel ianvars awarmoebs 160l.is investicias, xolo 31 dekembers investirebul Tanxas wliuri 12%-iana ganakveTiT ericxeba sargebeli, romelic grovdeba calke angariSze. mas, Tavis mxriv, ar ericxeba aranairi procenti. gamoTvaleT mTliani Tanxa, romelic investors unda daubrundes 31 dekembers mexuTe 160 l.-is Setanis Semdeg.
76
77
weli(1 ianvari) investireba (l.) 1. 160
2.
160+160=320
3.
160+320=480
4.
160+480=640
5.
160+640=800
2.
1100
1100+110=1210
12 160 19.20 lari 100
10 1100 110 100
3.
1210
1210+121=1331
12 320 38.40 lari 100
10 1210 121 100
4.
1331
1331+133.1=1464.1 10 1331 133.1 100
procenti (31 dekemberi)
12 480 57.60 lari 100 12 640 76.80 lari 100 12 800 96.00 lari 100
sul mTliani Tanxa mexuTe wlis 31 dekembrisaTvis = (800+288) l. (prinsipali da martivi procenti jamSi) = 1088 lars rTuli procentis SemTxvevaSi, yovelwliurad daricxuli procenti emateba ZiriTad Tanxas da momdevno wells procentis daricxva warmoebs jamur Tanxaze. magaliTad, 1,000l-ze daricxuli 10%-iani wliuri, rTuli saprocento ganakveTis SemTxvevaSi oTxi wlis ganmavlobaSi dagrovili Tanxa gamoiTvleba Semdegnairad:
weli prinsipali(l) 1. 1000
procenti(l)
10 1000 100 100
mTliani Tanxa(l) 1000+100=1100
amocanis amoxsnis alternatiuli Canaweri iqneba: weli
prinsipali(l)
mTliani Tanxa(l)
1.
1000
1000(1+0.1)=1100
2.
1000(1+0.1)
1000(1+0.1)(1+0.1)=1000(1+0.1)2=1210
3.
1000(1+0.1)2
1000(1+0.1)2(1+0.1)=1000(1+0.1)3=1331
4.
1000(1+0.1)3
1000(1+0.1)3(1+0.1)=1000(1+0.1)4=1464.1
amrigad, rTuli procentis SemTxvevaSi, mTliani (A) Tanxa n_uri wlis bolosaTvis gamoisaxeba formuliT:
A P(1 r )n sadac 100r = procentis (%) saxiT warmodgenil wliur saprocento ganakveTis (sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, am formulaSi procenti warmodgenilia aTwiladis saxiT. magaliTad, 12%-s formulaSi CavwerT, rogorc 0,12). rTuli procentebi, ZiriTadad, gxvdeba Semnaxvel anabrebze. momavali Rirebuleba gviCvenebs mocemuli investirebuli Tanxis Rirebulebas momavalSi.
momentisaTvis
78
79
magaliTi a) gamoTvaleT 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi procentis saxiT dagrovili Tanxa, Tu wliuri rTuli saprocento ganakveTi = 4%-s, ZiriTadi Tanxa = 624l. b) gansazRvreT is Tanxa, romlis investireba saWiroa dRes 5%-iani wliuri, rTuli saprocento ganakveTiT imisaTvis, rom 10 wlis mere miviRoT 10,000l. amoxsna a) gamoviyenoT A P(1 r ) formula, sadac: P=624l, r=0.04 da n=10 maSin: A=624(1+0.04)10=624(1.04)10=923/67 amrigad, dagrovili rTuli procenti = (923.67-624)l = 299.67l.
magaliTi mocemulia xuTwliani anuiteti yovelwliurad 100l-is gadaxdiT. anuitetis saprocento ganakveTi Seadgens 10%-s. ra iqneba am anuitetis saboloo anu momavali Rirebuleba? (am anuitetis koeficienti cxrilidan = 6.1051). anuitetis momavali Riurebuleba formulis saSualebiT Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba: FV(momavali Rirebuleba) me-5 wels = 100l x 6.1051 = 610.51l
n
b)
A P(1 r )n formulaSi SevitanoT A=10000l, r=0.05 da
n=10 gveqneba: 10000=P(1+0.05)10
P
10000 (1.05)10
P=6139.13l.
amrigad, 6,139.13 aris investirebisTvis saWiro Tanxa.
anuiteti – aris yovelwliurad erTi da imave Tanxebis regularulad miReba (gadaxda). anuiteti fuladi nakadia. anuitetis momavali Rirebuleba (anu gadaxdisas dagrovili mTliani Tanxa) SegviZlia gamovTvaloT Semdegi formuliT: momavali Rirebuleba n-uri wlisaTvis
P(1 r ) n 1 r
anuitetis amocana SegviZlia amovxsnaT formulis gamoyenebis gareSec anuitetis cxrilebis saSualebiT. cxrilebSi mocemulia koeficientebi anuitetis saprocento ganakveTisa da gadaxdis periodebis mixedviT.
moyvanil magaliTebSi procentebis daricxva simartivisaTvis xdeboda weliwadSi erTxel. magram, SesaZlebelia, procentis daricxva xdebodes yovelkvartalurad, yovelTviurad da yoveldRiuradac ki. am SemTxvevebSic igive formula gamoiyeneba, mxolod erTmaneTisagan unda ganvasxvavoT wliuri da nominaluri saprocento ganakveTebi. finansuri institutebi, ZiriTadad, iyeneben or saprocento ganakveTs: pirvelia – nominaluri ganakveTi, xolo meore – wliuri (moqmedi) saprocento ganakveTi da aRiniSneba (APR) simboloTi. magaliTi sakredito baraTebiT operaciebis warmoebisaTvis kompania yovelTviurad iRebs sakomisios 3.5%-is odenobiT. davuSvaT, rom klientma sakredito baraTiT SeiZina 100l-is Rirebulebis saqoneli da mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi ar gadaixada sakomisio. gamoTvaleT klientis davalianeba wlis bolosaTvis da wliuri saprocento ganakveTi (APR). amoxsna 12 Tvis
r a P1 100
bolosaTvis
n
sadac: P=sawyisi Tanxaa
davalianebis
Tanxa
iqneba:
80
81
r=saprocento ganakveTia n=drois periodia a=dagrovili Tanxaa periodis bolosaTvis 12
amrigad,
3.5 100 1 151.11 100
APR,Sesabamisad, gamoiTvleba Semdegi formuliT:
r 100 1 151.11 100 aqedan:
r 100 51.11 r=51.11% APR=51.11% 100 arsebobs gamosaTvlelad.
formulebi
martivi
da
rTuli
procentebis
fuladi nakadebis diskontirebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba maTi droiTi Rirebuleba. diskontirebis procesSi momavali fuladi nakadebis Rirebuleba daiyvaneba axlandel Rirebulebaze, rac TavisTavad niSnavs Semdegs: ra Rirs dRes is Tanxa, romelsac miviRebT momavalSi. ori sainvesticio proeqtis Sedarebis umartives meTods warmoadgens maTi fuladi nakadebis Sedareba. upiratesoba mieniWeba im proeqts, romelsac gaaCnia ufro didi sufTa fuladi nakadi (yvela amonagebisa da xarjis gaTvaliswinebiT). Tumca, es martivi meTodi ar iTvaliswinebs fulis droiT Rirebulebas. cxadia, investirebuli Tanxis miReba umjobesia moxdes droSi adre, xolo nasesxebi Tanxis dabruneba _droSi gvian. dro gansazRvravs fulis droiTRirebulebas. martivad rom vTqvaT, visurvebdiT migveRo 100l axla vidre erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi. amis asaxsnelad SeiZleba ramdenime mizezi arsebobdes:
Tanxebis gadavadebis, TavisTavad, axlavs riski SesaZloa fondma, sadac investireba ganxorcielda, ver aanazRauros Tanxebi erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi. 100l-is tolia Tanxis miRebiT dRes, Sansigvaqvs miviRoT am Tanxaze sargebeli procentis saxiT. magaliTisaTvis, usafrTxoa sabanko depozitze Tanxis ganTavsebis Semdeg, erTi wlis vadaSi, procentis saxiT miviRebT10l. xolo Tu Cven erTi wlis Semdeg miviRebdiT 100l, Cvens davkargavdiT procentebs,romlebic SegveZlo migveRo sabanko depozitidan. inflacia amcirebs 100l-is Rirebulebas.sxva sityvebiT rom 100l-iT dRes SevisyidiT ufro met produqts,vidre imace TanxiT erti wlis Semdeg. gansxvavebul situaciebSi fuls gaaCnia gansxvevebuli droiTi Rirebuleba. magaliTad: is, visTvisac fulis droiT Rirebulebas didi mniSvneloba aqvs, ar daTanxmdeba 100l-is miRebis gadavadebas, Tu sargebeli misgan ar eqneba maRali, dauSvaT 50l erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi. sxvisTvis, visTvisac fulis droiT Rirebulebas arsebiTi mniSvneloba ara aqvs, SesaZlebelia misaRebi iyos wlis ganmavlobaSi mxolod 1l-iani sargeblis miRebac ki. am meorisTvis fulis droiTi Rirebuleba dabalia. pirvelisTvis dRevandeli 100lis Rirebuleba tolia 150l-is erTi wlis Semdeg, xolo meorisaTvis 101l-is. Tumca orive SemTxvevaSi 150l-is da 101l-is mimdinare Rirebuleba erTi da igivea da tolia 100l. fulis droiTi Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba fuladi nakadebis diskontirebiT. diskontirebis meTodi, romelic fundametnaluria fuladi nakadebis mimdinare Rirebulebis daTvlisas, warmoadgens rTuli procentis gamoTvlis piruku meTods. magaliTi klientma bankSi Seitana anabari 2,000l-is odenobiT, 5%-iani wliuri rTuli saprocento sargebelis ganakveTis sargeblis qveS. mogeTxovebaT, gamoTvaloT: a) Tanxa, romelic dagrovili iqneba klientis angariSze erTi wlis Semdeg
82
83
ori wlis Semdeg sami wlia Semdeg b) Tanxa, romelic saWiroa depozitze Sesatanad, rom miviRoT 2,500l erTi wlis Semdeg ori wlis Semdeg sami wlia Semdeg amoxsna a) dagrovili Tanxa cxadia, momavalSi misaRebi Tanxebi SeiZleba davadginoT ariTmetikuli gamoTvlebis saSvalebiT, magram ufro mosaxerxebelia formulis gamoyeneba: sabolood dagrovili Tanxa S P(1 r ) sadac, P = prinsipali r = wliuri saprocento ganakveTi (warmodgenili aTwiladis saxiT) n= wlebis raodenoba, romlis ganmavlobaSic deponirebulia prinsipali 1-li wlis Semdeg S=2,000lx(1.05)=2,100l me-2 wlis Srmdeg S=2,000lx1.05x1.05=2,000lx1.052=2,205l me-3 wlis Semdeg S=2,000lx 1.053= 2,315.25l B n
b) momdinare Rirebuleba am SemTxvevaSi saboloo Tanxa, S cnobilia da unda vipovoT prinsipali P. kvlav viyenebT formulas, saidanac gvaqvs:
P
S (1 r ) n
1-li wlis Semdeg rom miviRoT 2,500l, dRes unda moxdes Semdegi Tanxis investireba:
Px1.05=2,500l
P 2,500x
1 2.380.95 l 1.05
2,381l-is investireba wliuri 5%-is SemTxvevaSi mogvcems 119.05l, rac jamSi udris 2,500l) me-2 wlis Semdeg rom miviRoT 2,500l dRes unda moxdes Semdegi Tanxis investireba: Px1.052=2,500l
P 2,500x
1 2.267.57 l 1.052
(Semowmeba advilia, radgan 2,267.57 ori wlis procentebis daricxvis Sedegad gaizrdeba 2,500l-mde) me-3 wlis Semdeg 2,500l-is misaRebad dRes gvWirdeba:
P 2,500
Semdeg
1 2.159.59 1.053
zemoT moyvanili magaliTis b) punqtSi gamovTvaleT momavali Tanxebis mimdinare Rirebulebebi. axla ukve Segvizlia gavakeToT aseTi daskvna: 5%-iani investirebisas, 1 wlis Semdeg miRebuli Tanxa2,500l ekvivalenturia DdRevandeli 2,380.95l-isa, miuxedavad imisa, rom es Tanxebi sididiT gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan. 2,380.95 l-s ewodeba 2,500l-is mimdinare Rirebuleba erTi wlis vadiTa da 5%iani ganakveTiT. fuladi nakadebis Semcveli produqtis Sesafaseblad aucilebelia ganisazRvros gasuli da Semosuli fuladi nakadebis ( romelTac momavalSi eqneba adgili) mimdinare Rirebulebebi. Cven mier zemoT ganxiluli diskontirebis analiziT ganisazRvreba, ramdenad SesaZlebelia proeqtebSi Tanxebis investireba an sesxad aReba, procentebis miReba an gadaxda, amave dros fulis droiTi Rirebulebac. Tu gasul fulad nakadebs aviRebT uaryofiTi niSniT, xolo Semosul nakadebs dadebiTi niSniT, maSin proeqtis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba (NPV) iqneba fulis yvela nakadis diskontirebul RirebulebaTa jami.
84
85
r wliuri saprocento ganakveTis (diskontirebis ganakveTi) pirobebSi, n raodenobis wlis Sermdeg misaRebi S Tanxis mimdinare Rirebuleba PV gamoiTvleba formuliT:
PV S
1 (1 r ) n
ipoveT qvemoT moyvanili Tanxebis mimdinare Rirebulebebi: a) 1,000l-is, romelsac miviRebT 1 wlis Semdeg diskontirebis 10%-iani ganakveTisas. b) 4,000l-is, romelsac miviRebT 2 wlis Semdeg diskontirebis 5%-iani ganakveTisas. g) 10,000l-is, romelsac miviRebT 5 wlis Semdeg diskontirebis 8%-iani ganakveTisas. mimdinare Rirebulebis moZebna gamoTvlis Sebrunebuli procesia. a)
PV 1000
rTuli
procentis
1 909.09 1.10
(dRevandeli 909.09l tolfasia erTi wlis Semdeg misaRebi 1,000l-is. xolo wlis ganmavlobaSi procentis saxiT daricxuli Tanxa tolia 90.91l) b)
1 PV 4000 3628.12 (SeamowmeT Tavad, rom 1.052
3,628.12l rTuli, 5% daricxviT ori wlis Semdeg mogvcems 4,000l-s) g)
PV 10000
1 6806 1.085
sainvesticio proeqtebis SefasebisaTvis saWiro gaangariSebis gasamartiveblad Seqmnilia mimdinare Rirebulebis koeficientebis (diskontirebis koeficientebi) cxrilebi. sadac koeficientebi miTiTebulia proeqtis vadisa da saprocento ganakveTebis mixedviT,
xolo Tavad koeficientebi warmoadgenen fulis erTeulis diskontirebul Rirebulebebs, Sesabamisi procentiTa da vadiT.magaliTad: cxrilSi 10% wliuri diskontirebis ganakveTis da 2 wlis Sesabamisi koeficienti tolia 0.826-is. es niSnavs, rom ori wlis Semdeg 10 %-iani diskontis ganakveTisas misaRebi 1l-is mimdinare Rirebuleba tolia 0.826l-is. mimdinare Rirebulebis koeficientebis cxrilebi msgavsia anuitetis koeficientebis cxrilebisa. magaliTi ganixileba danadgaris Sesyidvis sakiTxi imavdroulad sakiTxi 1.5 mln l-is gadaxdis pirobiT. mosalodneli Semosavali iqneba: 0.9 mln l pirveli wlis bolos, 0.6 mln l meore wlis bolos da 0.5 mln l mesame wlia bolos. gamoiyeneT diskontirebis koeficientebis cxrilebi da gamoTvaleT am proeqtis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba. amoxsna NPV(000l)= -1,500+[900x0.909]+[600x0.826]+[500x0.751]=189 rogorc ukve avRniSneT, aniutetierTidaigive Tanxebis regularuli gadaxda.
aris
yovelwliurad
magaliTi diskontirebis 10%-iani ganakveTisas sami wlis ganmavlobaSi warmoebs 500l-is toli Tanxebis gadaxda yovelwliurad. ipoveT mocemuli anuitetis mimdinare Rirebuleba. mimdinare (diskontirebuli) Rirebuleba PV SegviZlia davTvaloT rogorc 500l-is diskontirebul RirebulebaTa jami sami sxvadasxva periodis mixedviT:
1 1 1 PV PV 500 500 500 (1.10) (1.10) 2 (1.10) 3 455 413 376 1244
86
87
SevniSnoT, rom diskontirebisas mimdinare momenti Seesabameba drois nulovan periods. maSin, drois pirveli periodi Seesabameba mimdinare momentidan aTvlil pirveli wlis bolos da ase Semdeg. vTqvaT erTi da igive fuladi nakadisaTvis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba diskontis 12%-iani ganakveTisaTvis aris uaryofiTi _ 97l, xolo 8%-iani ganakveTisas, dadebiTi+108l. am faqtis axsna mdgomareobs SemdegSi: sesxi 12%-iT rom yofiliyo aRebuli, saprognozo varaudi iqneba, rom investori dakargavs daaxloebiT 97l-s. sesxi 8%-iT rom yofiliyo aRebuli, saprognozod ivaraudeba, rom investori gamoimuSavebs damatebiT daaxloebiT 108l-s. amrigad, proeqtis wminda mimdinare Rirebulebis dadebiTi mniSvneloba miuTiTebs proeqtis momgebianobaze. zogjer saWiroa iseTi anuitetis mimdinare Rirebulebis gamoTvla, romelic droSi usasrulod didxans grZeldeba, anu Tanxebis gadaxda warmoebs ganusazRvreli drois ganmavlobaSi. aseT anuitets ewodeba usasrulo anuiteti. mimdinare Rirebuleba n-uri raodenoba wlebis ganmavlobaSi gadaxdili A anuitetisa r diskontirebis ganakveTisas moicema Semdegi formuliT: mimdinare Rirebuleba
1 1 A 1 r (1 r )n
ra moxdeba,Tu am formulaSi n gaxdeba usasrulod didi? roca n miiswrafvis usasrulobisken, maSin (1+r)n-is mniSvnelobac miiswrafvis usasrulobisaken da maSin
1 (1 r) n
wiladi miiswrafvis
nulisken. aqedan gamomdinare, diskontirebis koeficienti miiswrafvis
1 sken. r uwyveti
A
anuitetis
mimdinare
Rirebuleba
A diskontirebis ganakveTisas, gamoisaxeba formuliT: PV . R
r
magaliTi 5,000l-is
mimdinare
Rirebuleba,
romelic
yovelwliurad
5000 miiReba diskontirebis 8%-iani ganakveTiT, udris: 62500 0.08 Tema 4. monetaruli da fiskalur-sagadasaxado statistika fuli da fuladi mimoqceva Tanamedrove ekonomikur sistemaSi fuladi nakadebi fulis raodenoba aqtiur rols TamaSoben da iTvlebian mTeli ekonomikuri procesebis mTavar regulatorad. saqarTvelos realobaSi istoriulad Camoyalibda da erovnuli kanonmdeblobiT ganmtkicda fuladi mimoqcevis organizaciis forma, romelsac Tanamedrove terminologiiT ewoda fuladi sistema, xolo aRniSnuli sistemis Semadgeneli elementebia: fuladi erTeuli, fulis emisiis sesxebi da Tanmimdevroba. Cveni qveynis mTavroba yvelanairad uwyobs xels mimoqcevaSi fulis raodenobis regulirebas, ayalibebs saxelmwifos fulad-sakredito politikas, romelic SeiZleba ganvixiloT or aspeqtSi. farTo gagebiT fuladsakredito politikis funqciaSi Sedis: fuladi reformis gatareba, naRdi fulis emisia, mTavrobis mier sxvadasxva obligaciebis gamoSveba, xolo viwro gagebiT fulad-sakredito politika moicavs fulis mimoqcevaze mxolod iribi zedamxadvelobis normebs. fuladi reforma tardeba fuladi mimoqcevis mosawesrigeblad da igi iTvaliswinebs fuladi sistemis srul an nawilobriv gardaqmnas. xolo rac Seexeba uSualod fulisa da fuladi mimoqcevis statistikas, igi warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes meqanizms radgan swored misi meSveobiT xdeba fuladi
88 mimoqcevis sferoSi mimdinare masobrivi movlenebis raodenobrivi mxaris Sefaseba. Cveni qveynis fulad-sakredito sistemaSi fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis obieqtad iTvleba fuladi sistemis obieqtebi: oficialuri fuladi erTeuli, fulis emisiis saxeebi da Tanmimdevroba, fuladi mimoqcevis organizaciis formebi da regulirebis meTodebi. fulisa da fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis mizania fulad-sakredito sistemis maregulirebeli organoebis uzrunvelyofa Sesabamisi utyuari informaciiT, fuladi sistemis mdgomareobis Sesaxeb. fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia: fuladi masis zomebis, struqturis da dinamikis gamoTvla, da misi ganawileba regionebSi da mosaxleobis jgufebSi; naRdi da unaRdo emisiis parametrebis gansazRvra; naRdi fulis kupiurebis gansazRvra; im raodenobrivi parametrebis gamovlineba, romlebic asaxaven fulis mimoqcevis gavlenas ekonomikaze da inflaciis doneze. fulisa da fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis maCveneblebi Seadgenen sam urTierTdakavSirebul bloks: makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis bloks, romelic gansazRvravs fulisa da fuladi mimoqcevis kavSirs ekonomikis realur seqtorTan. fulis saxeebis bloki; fulis masis maCveneblebis bloki anu fuladi agregatebis bloki. am blokebidan TiToeuli Seicavs maCvenebelTa garkveul nakrebs. makroekonomikuri bloki moicavs Semdeg maCveneblebs : fulis nominaluri masa; fulis brunva;
89 fulis mimoqcevis siCqare; fulis realuri masa; nominaluri da realuri fuladi masebis indeqsi; fulis brunvis siCqaris indeqsi; ekonomikis monetarizaciis done; fulis msyidvelobiTi unari; fulis saxeebis bloki ki moicavs: naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi; naRdi fuli ara sabanko sistemaSi; naRdi fuli sabanko salaroebSi; unaRdo fulis masa; fuladi multiplikatori; fuladi baza; fasiani qaRaldebi fulad mimoqcevaSi; msoflio fuli; fuladi masis maCveneblebis bloki axasiaTebs fulis masis gamoTvlis sxvadasxva tipis midgomas da Seicavs: fuladi agregatebis tradiciul sistemas: fuladi agregati
M0
fuladi agregati
M1
fuladi agregati
M2
fuladi agregati _ es aris iseTi likviduri finansuri aqtivebis moculobis maCvenebeli, romelic gamoiyeneba fulis nacvlad. maCveneblebis nacionaluri sistema Seicavs Semdegi saxis fulis agregatebs:
M
0 fulis agregati _ Seicavs likvidur aqtivebs, naRd fuls mimoqcevaSi.
M
absoluturad
1 (saxsrebi romlebic arsebobs fuladi agregati dawesebulebebis da organizaciebis angariSebze) + (saxelmwifo dazRvevis saxsrebi) + (mosaxleobis depozitebi Semnaxvel
90
91
bankebSi moTxovnamde) + (mosaxleobis depozitebi komerciul bankebSi) fuladi
agregati
M2
da
sawarmoebis
mosaxleobis
depozitebi Semnaxvel bankebSi. aRniSnuli agregati ZiriTadi maCvenebeli statistikaSi.
M
M2 +
3 fuladi agregati = serTifikatebi) + (saxelmwifo obligaciebi).
vadiani
M 2 aris
(depozituri
M3
agregats xSirad uwodeben “erTobliv fulad masas.” Anu farTo fuli. amasTanave ssf-is meTodologiis Tanaxmad fuladi masis dasaxasiaTeblad miRebulia Semdegi agregatebi: agregati “fuli” – moicavs bankebis da moTxovnamde anabrebis gareT arsebul fuls. e.i. igi warmoadgens faqtiurad qveynis gankargulebaSi arsebul mTel fulad saxsrebs da igi
M 1 -is analogiuria. agregati “kvazi fuli” – warmoadgens fuladi sistemis likvidur depozitebs da moicavs vadian da Semnaxvel depozitebs, aseve depozitebs ucxour valutaSi. agregati “farTe fuli” – es aris “fuli” da “kvazi fuli” agregatebis jami. agregatebis aseTi klasifikacia saSualebas iZleva gakontroldes da gaanalizdes ekonomikaSi fulis wyaroebis miwodebis struqtura da dinamika. saqarTveloSi erovnuli bankis monacemebiT agregatebis mixedviT (milion larebSi) fulis masis dinamika 2004-2008 wlebSi Semdeg suraTs iZleva:
2004
2005
2006
1521.6
1924.9
2689.9 4027.5 4305.1
4656.8
847.2
1071.0
1392.8
2149.3
1862.5
2139.5
616.0
736.3
827.4
1152.1
1082.6
1186.8
sadepoziti valdebulebebi (erovnul valutaSi) sadepoziti valdebulebebi (ucxour valutaSi)
231.2
334.8
565.5
997.2
779.9
1035.8
674.4
853.9
1297.0
1878.2
2442.6 2517.3
M 0 -is wili M 2 -Si
79.8
75.8
66.7
61.0
69.3
57.5
55.7
55.6
51.8
53.4
43.3
45.9
676.2
811.4
929.5
1310.5
1290.7
1457.9
farTo fuli
M3
fulis masa M 2 bankebs gareT arsebuli naRdi fuli
2007
2008
2009
M0
%
M 2 -is wili M 3 -Si % lari mimoqcevaSi
cxrilidan Cans, rom Zalian swrafi tempebiT gaizarda fulis masa saqarTveloSi 2004-2009 wlebSi, gaizarda sadepozito valdebulebebi erovnul valutaSi, xolo SedarebiT naklebi tempebiT gaizarda sadepozito valdebulebani ucxour valutaSi. Semcirda bankebs gareT arsebuli naRdi fulis wili fulis masaSi, rac miuTiTebs saqarTvelosi sabanko sistemis ganviTarebaze. fulis ZiriTadi masa qveyanaSi mimoiqceva sabanko sistemis meSveobiT. amitom saxelmwifo sabanko kreditis statistikur Seswavlas didi mniSvneloba eniWeba qveynis sabanko politikis SemuSavebis saqmeSi. sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi sakredito operaciebs bankebis orsafexuriani sistema
92
93
anxorcielebs. am sistemis pirvel safexurze dgas qveynis mTavari, erovnuli banki, xolo meoreze - komerciuli bankebi. fiskaluri ekonomikuri politikis statistika saxelmwifo banki qveyanaSi atarebs ekonomikis regulirebis fulad-sakredito politikas. amisaTvis awesebs komerciuli bankebisaTvis moziduli Tanxebis savaldebulo rezervebis normebs, maT mier gacemuli kreditebisaTvis da fasiani qaRaldebis SeZenisaTvis saWiro da savaldebulo normativebs. saxelmwifo banki gascems, agreTve, kreditebs saerTod da komerciuli bankebis refinansirebisaTvis. saxelmwifo sabanko politikis meSveobiT anxorcielebs, agreTve, qveyanaSi sakredito urTierTobaTa regulirebas da amiT xels uwyobs erovnuli valutis kursis ganmtkicebas. saxelmwifo, safinanso ekonomikuri politikis erTerTi Semadgeneli nawilia, agreTve, fiskaluri ekonomikuri, anu sabiujeto-sagadasaxado politika, rasac is anxorcielebs fiskaluri statistikis meSveobiT. fiskaluri statistika Seiswavlis sabiujeto Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis (maT Soris sagadasaxado Semosavlebis) dones anu moculobas, struqturas, dinamikas da maTze moqmedi faqtorebis korelaciur-regresiul analizs. sityva biujeti inglisuri warmoSobisaa (Budget) da niSnavs CanTas. cnobilia, rom me-17 saukunis inglisSi lordTa palatis winaSe moxsenebiT gamomsvlel xazinis kanclers win fuliT savse tomara edo, romelsac tribunis nacvlad dasayrdnoblad iyenebda. ase warmoTqvamda kancleri sityvas qveynis finansebis wyaroebisa da xarjebis Sesaxeb, romelsac ,,biujets~ uwodeben. amis Semdeg dRemde biujeti yvela qveynis fuladi resursebis warmoqmnisa da ganawilebis gegmis saxiTaa cnobili da centralur adgils iWers fiskaluri politikis SemuSavebis saqmeSi.
arsebobs biujetis sxvadasxva saxeebi. maT Sorisaa naerTi (konslidirebuli) biujeti, saxelmwifo biujeti da teritoriuli erTeulebis biujetebi. naerTi biujti moicavs saxelmwifo da teritoriuli erTeulebis biujetebs. Tavis mxriv, saxelmwifo biujeti moicavs centralur biujetsa da specialuri saxelmwifo fondebis biujetebs. ekonomikuri Teoriis mixedviT biujetis Semsavlebis xuTi wyaroa dasaxelebuli: gadasaxadi Semosavalze, gadasaxadi moxmarebaze, gadasaxadi sakuTrebaze, arasagadasaxado Semosavlebi da sxva gadasaxadebi. amis garda Semosavlebi moicavs, agreTve, oficialur transpertebsac, romlebic aris araanazRaurebadi, aradabrunebadi, araaucilebeli Semosavlebi. maT gaaCniaT nebayofobiTi xasiaTi Cuqebis, reparaciebis (gamarjvebuli qveynis mier omiT miyenebuli zaralis anazRaureba damarcxebuli qveynisaTvis), subvenciebis (centraluri organoebis mier miznobrivi dafinansebisaTvis qvemdgomi organoebisaTvis Tanxebis gamoyofa) da sxvaTa saxiT. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mier rekomendirebulia saxelmwifo biujetis Semosavlebis Semdegnairi klasifikacia: I. saerTaSoriso Semosavlebi da miRebuli oficialuri transpertebi (II + VII); II. saerTaSoriso Semosavlebi (III + V); III. mimdinare Semosavlebi (IV + V); IV. sagadasaxado Semosavlebi (maT Soris: saSemosavlo, mogebis, kapitalis sabazro Rirebulebis gadidebis, socdazRvevis anaricxebis, xelflasis fondisa da samuSao Zalis, sakuTrebis, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, sagareo vaWrobisa da sagareo operaciebis da sxva gadasaxadebi); V. arasagadasaxado Semosavlebi; VI. Semosavlebi kapitalis operaciebidan; VII. miRebuli oficialuri transpertebi. arsebobs, agreTve, sabiujeto xarjebis saerTaSoriso klasifikaciebi. maT Soris ZiriTadi funqcionaluri
94 (saxelmwifos Sesasrulebeli funqciebis mixedviT) sabiujeto xarjebis klasifikaciaa, romlis mixedviTac gamoiyofa: 1. saerTo xasiaTis saxelmwifo momsaxurebis xarjebi; 2. Tavdacvis xarjebi; 3. saxelmwifo wesrigisa da usafrTxoebis xarjebi; 4. ganaTlebis xarjebi; 5. jandacvis xarjebi; 6. socdazRvevisa da socuzrunvelyofis xarjebi; 7. sabinao-komunaluri xarjebi; 8. dasvenebis organizaciis, kulturisa da religiis xarjebi; 9. saTbob-energetikuli kompleqsis xarjebi; 10. soflisa da xe-tyis meurneobis, TevzWerisa da samonadireo xarjebi; 11. samTomopovebuli mrewvelobisa da sasargeblo wiaRiseulis (saTbobis gamoklebiT), gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobisa da mSeneblobis xarjebi; 12. transportisa da kavSirgabmulobis xarjebi; 13. sxva saxis momsaxurebis xarjebi, romlebic dakavSirebulia ekonomikis saqmianobasTan; 14. xarjebi, romlebic ar miekuTvneba ZiriTad jgufebs. biujetis Semosavlebsa da danaxarjebs Soris sxvaoba gvaZlevs deficits (xarjebi Warbobs Semosavlebs) an proficits (xarjebi naklebia Semosavlebze). saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mier rekomendirebulia deficitis Sesavsebad saSinao (Tanxebi miRebuli saxelmwifos sxva seqtoridan) da sagareo (Tanxebi miRebuli ucxoeTidan) dafinanseba. saqarTvelos biujetis Semosavlebi da xarjebi agebulia saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciebis mixedviTa da adgilobrivi Taviseburebebis gaTvaliswinebiT. SemosavlebSia sagadasaxado (saSemosavlo, mogebis, damatebuli Rirebulebis, aqcizis, sabaJo da sxva gadasaxadebi), saxelmwifo fondebis (dasaqmebis, socuzrunvelyofis, sagzao da sxva saxelmwifo
95 fondebi) Semosavali, arasagadasaxado Semosavlebi (Semosavlebi privatizaciidan da sxv.) da grantebi. 2001-2007 wlebSi saqarTvelos naerTi biujetis mixedviT Semosavlebi Semdeg suraTs iZleva: saqarTvelos naerTi biujetis Semosavlebi (mln lari) 2001
2002
2003
2004
739.7
817.4
933.1
691.6
794.8
sagadasaxado 630.5 Semosavlebi arasagadasaxado 61.1 ucxouri grantebi
Semosavlebi da grantebi Semosavlebi sul: maT Soris:
48.1
2005
2006
2007
1773.7 2607.8
3773.2
5158.6
884.6
1649.0 2503.3
3579.2
4935.1
722.6
806.6
1322.1 1836.0
2633.1
3732.6
72.1
78.1
259.9
280.4
482.5
753.4
22.6
48.4
124.7
104.5
194.0
223.5
cxrilSi mocemuli absoluturi sidideebi TavisTavad ver axasiaTeben raime kanonzomierebas. amitom saWiroa struqturis, dinamikis da sxva saxis SefardebiTi sidideebis gaangariSeba. 2001 wels naerTi biujetis mTlian SemosavlebSi sagadasaxado Semosavlebs eWira
630.5 100 85.2% 739.7 arasagadasaxado Semosavlebs
61.1 100 8.3% 739.7 xolo grantebs
96
97
48.1  100  6.5% 739.7 2007 wels es maCveneblebi Seadgenda Sesabamisad 72.4 %s, 14.6 %-s, 4.3 %-s, rogorc Cans, Semcirda sagadasaxado Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili da gaizarda arasagadasaxado SemosavlebiT xvedriTi wili. es niSnavs qonebis privatizaciis tempebis daCqarebas saqarTveloSi. Semosavlebis dinamika 2001-2007 gviCvenebs, rom mkveTrad gaizarda biujetis Semosavlebi vardebis revoluciis Semdgom periodSi, rac gadasaxadebis amoRebis administrirebis gaZlierebasa da Crdilovani ekonomikis Semcirebaze mianiSnebs. saxelmwifos fiskaluri ekonomikuri politikis gatarebis ZiriTadi instrumenti sagadasaxado sistemaa. ekonomikuri Teoriis ganmartebiT gadasaxadi savaldebulo mosakrebia, romelsac mTliani erovnuli produqciis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis gziT qveynis iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebi uxdian saxelmwifos, Sesabamisi kanonmdeblobiT dadgenili sagadasaxado ganakveTebis mixedviT. iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebia sawarmoebi, firmebi, organizaciebi da moqalaqeebi, romlebic ewevian ama Tu im saxis saqmianobas. arsebobs saerTo saxelmwifoebrivi da adgilobrivi gadasaxadebi. saerTo-saxelmwifoebrivi gadasaxadebi, romlebic amoiReba centraluri sagadasaxado organoebis mier da avsebs federaluri (centraluri) biujetis saSemosavlo nawils. aseTia: saSemosavlo gadasaxadi, mogebis gadasaxadi, damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi, aqcizi, sabaJo gadasaxadi, socialuri gadasaxadi. adgilobrivia gadasaxadi, romelic amoiReba adgilobrivi organoebis mier da avsebs adgilobrivi (municipaluri) biujetis saSemosavlo nawils. aseTia qonebis gadasaxadi da saTamaSo biznesis gadasaxadi. ekonomikuri Teoria gadasaxadebis klasifikacias awarmoebs sxvadasxva niSnebiT. maT Soris gamoiyofa: piradpiri,
romliTac uSualod pirdapir ibegreba gadamxdelis Semosavali da qoneba (saSemosavlo gadasaxadi, miwis gadasaxadi, socialuri dazRveva, ekologiuri gadasaxadi da sxv.) arapirdapiri, romelic wesdeba saqonlis fasze, agreTve momsaxurebis tarifze wanamatis saxiT da romlis uSualo gadamxdelia momxmarebeli. magram vinaidan is fasSi Sedis, biujetSi gadaixdeba gamyidvelis mier (damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi, saaqcizo gadasaxadi, sabaJo gadasaxadi, saqmianobis monopoliur saxeebze gadasaxadi da sxv.). gamoyenebis niSniT gadasaxadebi ori saxisaa: saerTo (Tavs iyris erTian saxelmwifo xazinaSi da gamoiyeneba saerTo miznebis dasafinanseblad) da specialuri (socialuri dazRvevis Tanxa, sagzao fondi, da sxv.), romlis Tanxebi miznobrivia da gamoiyeneba mxolod specialuri daniSnulebiT. sagadamxdelo ganakveTebis mixedviT SeiZleba gvqondes fiqsirebuli (dabegvris erTeulze dawesebuli myari, fiqsirebuli sagadasaxado ganakveTi, romelic ar icvleba dabegvris obieqtis cvalebadobasTan dakavSirebiT), progresuli (progresulad izrdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTebi) da regresiuli (dabegvris obieqtis gadidebasTan erTad ki ar diddeba, aramed mcirdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTebi) gadasaxadebi. sagadasaxado statistikis amocanebia gadasaxadebis moculobis, struqturis, dinamikis, gadasaxadebze moqmedi faqtorebis Seswavla da prognozireba. sagadasaxado statistikis winaSe arsebuli amocanebis gadawyvetisaTvis aucilebelia gadasaxadebis amosavali xazis Seswavla, rasac safinanso-sagadasaxado mecniereba iZleva. aseTia gadasaxadis gadamxdelebi, dabegvris obieqti da sagadasaxado ganakveTebi. marTlac SeuZlebelia sagadasaxado statistikam Seiswavlos gadasaxadebis moculoba, struqtura sxvadasxva niSnebis mixedviT da maT Soris gadamxdelebis mixedviTac, an kidev gadasaxadebis dinamika, zemoTaRniSnuli parametrebis codnis gareSe.
98 rogorc saqarTvelos sagadasaxado moqmedi kodeqsiTaa dafiqsirebuli saSemosavlo gadasaxadis gadamxdelebi arian rezidenti da ararezidenti fizikuri pirebi. moqmedi sagadasaxado kodeqsiT ganmartebulia, rom ,,rezidentad iTvleba fizikuri piri, romelic faqtobrivad imyofeba saqarTvelos teritoriaze 182 dReze met xans nebismier 12-Tvian periodSi, romelic mTavrdeba sagadasaxado wels, an igi sagadasaxado wlis ganmavlobaSi imyofeba ucxoeTSi saqarTvelos saxelmwifo samsaxurSi~. amave sagadasaxado kodeqsiT ganmartebulia, rom saqarTveloSi yofnis dRed iTvleba dRe, romlis ganmavlobaSiac fizikuri piri imyofeboda saqaraTvelos teritoriaze, miuxedavad am yofnis xangrZlivobisa. fizikur pirs ar miekuTvneba diplomatiuri statusis mqoneni da maTi ojaxis wevrebi, ucxo qveynis saxelmwifoSi myofi pirebi da maTi ojaxis wevrebi (saqarTvelos moqalaqeebis garda), saqarTvelos teritoriaze ucxoeTis erTi saxelmwifodan meoreSi gamvleli piri. ararezidenti aris piri, romelic ar aris saqarTvelos rezidenti. saSemosavlo gadasaxadis dabegvris obieqtad, moqmedi sagadasaxado kodeqsis mixedviT, miCneulia Semosavali, romelic miiReba erTobliv (mTlian) Semosavlebsa da sagadasaxado kodeqsiT gaTvaliswinebul gamoqviTvebs Soris sxvaobiT. mTliani Semosavlebi rezidentisaTvis moicavs rogorc saqarTveloSi, aseve mis farglebs gareT miRebul Semosavlebs, xolo ararezidentisaTvis saqarTvelos wyaroebidan miRebul Semosavlebs. maT miekuTvneba ekonomikuri saqmianobiT miRebuli yvela Semosavali, maT Soris xelfasi, premia, samewarmeo saqmianobiT saqonlis realizaciidan an momsaxurebis, samewarmeo saqmianobisaTvis gamoyenebuli aqtivebis realizaciis, agreTve arasamewarmeo saqmianobiT miRebuli Semosavlebi (dividendebi, procentebiT miRebuli Semosavlebi, qonebis ijariT gacemis, valebis CamoweriT da sxva Semosavlebi
99 yovelTviuri daubegravi minimumis jamis, winaT dabegrili dividendebisa da procentebis Semosavlis gamoklebiT). saSemosavlo gadasaxadis ganakveTia 25%. saSemosavlo gadasaxadisagan Tavisufalia ucxoeTis diplomatis an sakonsulos TanamSromlis daqiravebuli Sromis Sedegad miRebuli Semosavali, granti, saxelmwifo pensia, memkvidreobamde miRebuli qonebis realizaciiT miRebuli Semosavali, alimenti da sxv. mogebis gadasaxadis gadamxdelebia saqarTvelosa da ucxouri sawarmoebi. dabegvris obieqtia mogeba, romelic ganisazRvreba gadamxdelis mTlian Semosavalsa da am Semosavlis miRebasTan dakavSirebul xarjebs Soris sxvaobiT (garda aqtivebis Rirebulebisa, romelSiac Seitaneba ZiriTadi saSualebebis SeZenis, damontaJebisa da sxva kapitaluri xarjebi, agreTve garda im xarjebisa, romlebic dakavSirebuli ar aris ekonomikur saqmianobasTan: fizikuri piris mier piradi moxmarebisaTvis gaweuli xarjebi, maT Soris xelfasis saxiT miRebuli Semosavali, garTobaze gaweuli xarjebi finansTa saministros normis zeviT da a.S.). aq ar unda gavigoT ise, rom ZiriTadi saSualebebis Rirebulebis nawili ar gamoiqviTeba mTliani Semosavlidan amortizaciis saxiT. piriqiT, amortizaciis Rirebuleba mTliani Rirebulebidan gamoiqviTeba normatiuli procentebis saxiT. amasTan amortizacia ar daericxeba araamortizirebad saSualebebs, rogoricaa miwa, xelovnebis nimuSebi da sxv. sawarmos mogebis sagadasaxado ganakveTi moqmedi kodeqsiT Seadgens 15%-s damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi, rogorc arapirdapiri gadasaxadi, aris ,,saqarTvelos teritoriaze saqonlis, samuSaos, momsaxurebis, warmoebisa da mimoqcevis procesSi Seqmnili Rirebulebis nawili, agreTve saqarTvelos teritoriaze Semotanili yvela dasabegri saqonlis Rirebulebis nawilis biujetSi savaldebulo Senatani.
100 damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi saqarTveloSi 1992 wlidan dainerga (1958 wels pirvelad frangebma SemoiRes da Semdeg swrafad gavrcelda sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi). ekonomikuri statistikis ganmartebiT damatebuli Rirebuleba aris ,,warmoebuli saqonlisa da gaweuli momsaxurebis Rirebulebasa da warmoebis procesSi mTlianad moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis (Sualeduri moxmareba) RirebulebaTa Soris sxvaoba. amasTan warmoebuli saqonlisa da gaweuli momsaxurebis RirebulebaSi Seitaneba: a) yvela saxis saqoneli maTi gamoyenebis miuxedavad, maT Soris sxva momxmareblebisadmi miwodebuli, aseve TviT mwarmoeblis mier sakuTari saboloo moxmarebis, agreTve dagrovebisa da materialuri saSualebebis maragTa SevsebisaTvis gankuTvnili; b) sxva institucionaluri erTeulebisaTvis, kerZod saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebis da komerciuli organizaciebisaTvis gaweuli arasabazro momsaxureba; v) SinamosamsaxureTa mier anazRaurebadi momsaxureba (ojaxis wevrebis mier urTierTaraanazRaurebadi) momsaxureba, rogoricaa sarecxis recxva, kerZebis momzadeba da sxv. ar Seitaneba produqciisa da momsaxurebis saerTo RirebulebaSi. ekonomikuri statistika miuTiTebs agreTve, Sevides warmoebis moculobaSi Crdilovani ekonomikis (arakanonieri), agreTve, kanonieri, magram gadasaxadebisagan Tavis aridebis mizniT maluli ekonomikis (maluli warmoeba) mier warmoebuli produqciisa da gaweuli momsaxurebis Rirebulebac. Sualeduri moxmareba, romelic gamoiyeneba damatebuli Rirebulebis gasaangariSeblad, aris saqonlisa da sabazro momsaxurebis Rirebuleba (ZiriTadi fondebis gamoklebiT), romelic mocemul periodSi gamoyenebul iqna sxva saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sawarmoeblad. is moicavs: a) Sromis sagnebs (nedleulsa da ZiriTad masalebs), eleqtroenergias, saTbobs, Tesls, sakvebs, sakuTari warmoebisa
101 da nayid naxevarfabrikatebs, medikamentebs, kvebis produqtebs, spectansacmels, sakancelario sagnebs da a.S. b) sxva sawarmoebisa da pirebis mier Sesrulebuli samuSaosa da gaweuli momsaxurebis anazRaureba (transportiT momsaxureba, remonti, kavSirgabmulobisa da gamoTvliTi centrebis momsaxureba, komunaluri momsaxureba, konsultaciebis, iuristebis, bankebis, reklamisa da sxvaTa momsaxureba da a.S.); v) samivlinebo Tanxebis anazRaureba. aqedan cxadia, rom damatebuli Rirebulebis gadamxdelebad iTvleba yvela pirovneba, vinc eweva raime saxis saqmianobas, romelsac moaqvs Sesabamisi Rirebuleba, xolo dabegvris obieqtad unda miviCnioT ara ,,dasabegri operacia da dasabegri importi~, rogorc es saqarTvelos sagadasaxado kodeqsSia aRniSnuli, aramed damatebuli Rirebuleba da importi, romelic warmoiSoba Sesabamisi ekonomikuri saqmianobiT. damatebuli Rirebulebis sagadasaxado ganakveTebi gansxvavebulia qveynebis mixedviT. misi ganakveTebi metwil qveynebSi meryeobs 20-30%-is farglebSi. igi Seadgens, magaliTad, aaS-ebSi 11%-s, inglisSi 15%-s, gfr-Si daaxloebiT 6%-s, SvedeTSi 7%-s, safrangeTSi 8%-s, saqarTveloSi Tavidan 28%-s Seadgenda, SemdegSi 14%-mde davida, amJamad 18%-ia. aqcizi, rogorc arapirdapiri gadasaxadi wesdeba iseTi masobrivi moxmarebisa da ganusazRvreli raodenobiT realizebad produqtebze, rogoricaa, Saqari, Cai, marili, benzini, asanTi, Tambaqo da alkoholuri sasmelebi. aqciziT saxelmwifo anxorcielebs optimalur-fiskalur politikas, zogjer zRudavs zogierTi saqonlis moxmarebas da xels uwyobs antimonopoluri kanonis qmediTunarianobas. zogierT qveyanaSi aqcisze modis sagadasaxado Semosavlebis 20-25%. saqarTveloSi aqcizuri gadasaxadi arc Tu didi xnis winaTaa SemoRebuli, Tumca misi moqmedebis areali TandaTanobiT farTovdab.
102 aqcizis gadamxdelebia aqcizuri saqonlis mwarmoeblebi an importiorebi saqarTveloSi. aqciziT dabegvris obieqtia aqcizuri saqonlis miwodeba saqarTveloSi ar sawyobidan gatana (maT Soris damkveTis nedleuliT damzadebuli) an importi ucxoeTidan. aqcizis sagadasaxado ganakveTebi wesdeba rogorc individualuri wesiT, mtkice odenobiT saqonlis erTeulze, ise universaluri anu procentobiT saqonlis Rirebulebisadmi. saqarTveloSi moqmedi sagadasaxado kodeqsiT, magaliTad, msubuqi avtomobilebisadmi dawesebulia 15%-iani aqcizi, xolo yurZnis 1 litra Rvinoze fiqsirebuli 50 TeTri erT litrze da a.S. sabaJo gadasaxadis gadamxdelebia iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebi, romlebic awarmoeben eqsport-importis operaciebs. misi sagadasaxado bazaa eqsport-importis moculoba, xolo ganakveTi 12%. socialuri gadasaxadi, gankuTvnilia socialuri uzrunvelyofisaTvis, romelsac gadasaxadis gadamxdelebi ixdian Sromis anazRaurebisa da masTan gaTanabrebul Tanxebze. aseTi saxis gadasaxadis gadamxdelia damqiravebeli mewarme, fizikuri da iuridiuli pirebi, romlebic Sromas unazRaureben daqiravebulebs da TviT daqiravebuli pirebi, dasabegravi obieqtia mewarmesa da raime saqonlis mqone Semosavali da daqiravebulebis xelfasi. ukanasknel periodamde misi ganakveTi iyo 20%. amJamad es gadasaxadi gauqmebulia da dawesebulia erTiani 25%-iani saSemosavlo gadasaxadi. qonebis gadasaxadi ori saxisaa: fizikuri pirebis qonebis gadasaxadi da sawarmoTa qonebis gadasaxadi. fizikuri qonebis gadasaxadis gadamxdelebia qonebis gadasaxadiT dasabegravi obieqtebis mesakuTre fizikuri pirebi, dabegvris obieqti saqarTvelos urbanul teritoriaze arsebuli, xolo araurbanul teritoriaze ekonomikuri saqmianobisaTvis gamoyenebuli iseTi uZravi qoneba (miwis garda), rogoricaa
103 Senoba-nagebobani an maTi nawilebi, xolo sagadasaxado ganakveTia maTi sabuRaltro Rirebulebis 0,1 procenti. sawarmoTa qonebis gadasaxadis gadamxdelebia sawarmoebi (maT Soris samamulo da ucxouri, agreTve, maTi damoukidebel angariSze myofi da bankSi angariSsworebis angariSis mqone filialebi da organizaciebi, romelTa qonebis nawili gamoiyeneba ekonomikuri saqmianobisaTvis). sawarmoTa qonebis gadasaxadis dabegvris obieqtia sawarmos balansze ricxuli ZiriTadi saSualebebi, daumontaJebeli mowyobiloba, daumTavrebeli dabandebani da aramaterialuri aqtivebi. dasabegravi Rirebuleba gaiangariSeba CamoTvlili aqtivebis narCeni saSualowliuri Rirebulebis 1 procentiani ganakveTiT. saTamaSo biznesis gadasaxadis gadamxdelebad iTvlebian pirebi, romlebic ewevian sawarmeo saqmianobas latariebiT, kazinoebiT, azartuli da sxva saTamaSo miznebiT. dabegvris obieqtia latariis bileTebis realizaciidan miRebuli amonagebi, TamaSebisaTvis gamoyenebuli magidebi, saTamaSo aparatebi, totalizatorebi, bingos salaroebi da sxv. sagadasaxado ganakveTebia latariis bileTebis realizaciidan miRebuli amonagebis ara umetes 20%-isa, kazinos, samorines TiToeuli magididan TveSi 5000-dan 10000 laramde, totalizatoris, bingos, lotos salaroebze TveSi 300-dan 600 laramde da a.S. axal sagadasaxado kodeqsSi, romelic amJamad ganxilvis procesSia ormagdeba totalizatoris, kazinoebis da bingos gadasaxadi. sagadasaxado politikis gatarebisaTvis saWiroa gvqondes Semosavlebis indikatorebis statistikuri suraTi, rac iZleva am movlenebisa da procesebis droSi ganviTarebis kanonzomierebebs.
104
105 Tema 5. fasebisa da inflaciis statistika
fasi aris saqonlis Rirebulebis fuladi gamoxatuleba. gegmuri ekonomikis pirobebSi fasi warmoadgenda produqciisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebis fulad sazom indikators. sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi mas gansazRvravs ara produqciisa da momsaxurebis warmoebaze gaweuli danaxarjebi da aqedan gamomdinare Rirebuleba, aramed bazarze arsebuli moTxovnamiwodeba. amitom sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi fasi SeiZleba ganisazRvros Semdegnairad: fasi aris yidva-gayidvis procesSi saqonlis (produqciis) an momsaxurebis erTeulisaTvis, moTxovna-miwodebis Sesabamisad, gadasaxdeli Tanxa. fasebi Tavad moqmedebs moTxovna-miwodebis regulirebaze, gamoiyeneba makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis (mTliani Sida produqtis, erovnuli Semosavlis, erovnuli sisdidris da sxva) gasaangariSeblad, mosaxleobis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis, cxovrebis donis dasadgenad da sxva mravali makroekonomikuri problemis gadasaWrelad. biznesSi, menejmentSi, marketingSi da sxva sferoebSi is adamianTa yoveldRiuri saqmianobis mZlavri instrumentia. yvela am sferoSi fasebi asrulebs saaRricxvo (produqciisa da momsaxurebis moculobis, mogebisa da rentabelobis dadgena da sxv.), mastimulirebel (maRali fasis produqciisa da momsaxurebis meti raodenobis warmoeba, nedleulis, saTbobis, masalebis, eleqtroenergiis da sxva danaxarjebis ekonomia da a.S.) da ganmanawilebel (mis SemadgenlobaSi ara marto danaxarjebis, aramed saxelmwifo biujetSi gadasaxadebis da sxvaTa gaTvaliswineba) funqciebs. sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi fasebi aris sxvadasxva saxis. amaTgan qveyanaSi dominirebs sabazro fasebi. sabazro fasebi aris Tavisufali fasebi, romlebic yalibdeba bazarze moTxovnamiwodebis, agreTve, myidvelisa da gamyidvelis interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT. igi moicavs, agreTve, damatebuli Rirebulebisa da aqcizis gadasaxadebs.
sabazro fasebi qveyanaSi yalibdeba moqmedi fasebis bazaze. maT Sorisaa gamyidvelis, myidvelisa da ZiriTadi sacalo fasebi, momsaxurebis fasebi da tarifebi. gamyidvelis fasi ewodeba im fass, romliTac gamyidveli yidis saqonels da momsaxurebas. gamyidvelis fasis erTerTi nairasaxeobaa mwarmoeblisa da ZiriTadi fasebi. mwarmoeblis fasia is fasi, romelsac Rebulobs mwarmoebeli produqciis an momsaxurebis erTi erTeulis gayidviT. is moicavs TviTRirebulebas anu warmoebisa da momsaxurebis danaxarjebs (nedleuli da ZiriTadi masalebi, saTbobi da eleqtroenergia, naxevarfabrikatebi, ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizacZia, xelfasi, socdazRvevis anaricxebi socdazRvevaze da sxv.), gadasaxadebs (aqcizis, damatebuli Rirebulebis da importze gadasaxadebis garda) produqtebze da importze subsidiebis gamoklebiT. ZiriTadi fasi aris mwarmoeblis mier produqciisa da momsaxurebis erTeulze miRebuli fasi, produqtebze yvela saxis gadasaxadis gamoklebiT da subsidebis CaTvliT (garda importze subsidisa). aqedan cxadia, rom mwarmoeblis fassa da ZiriTad fass Soris aseTi damokidebula aris: mwarmoeblis fasi - mwarmoeblis fasSi CarTuli produqtebze gadasaxadebi + produqtebze subsidiebi = ZiriTad fass. myidvelis fasi saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebis fasia, romelic moicavs mwarmoeblis fass, agreTve, satransporto-savaWro daTbobas da wminda gadasaxadebs (mwarmoeblis fasSi gaTvaliswinebuli gadasaxadebis gareSe). sabiTumo fasi ewodeba im fass, romliTac samomxmareblo saqoneli biTumad gadaecema msxvili partiebiT mwarmoeblidan savaWro qsels an teqnikuri daniSnulebis nawarmi - uSualo momxmarebels. rogorc wesi, sabiTumo fasSi SeaqvT warmoebis danaxarjebi da mogeba. masSi ar Seitaneba aqcizisa da damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi.
106 sacalo fasebi ewodeba im fasebs, romliTac saqoneli da momsaxureba uSualod mieyideba mosaxleobas. masSi Seitaneba sabiTumo fasi, savaWro daTboba (mimoqcevis xarjebi da mogeba), agreTve, damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi da aqcizi. momsaxurebis fasebi da tarifebi gamoiyeneba momsaxurebis (satransporto, kavSirgabmulobis, sabinao-komunaluri, sanitaruli da sxv.) sferoebSi. sabazro, Tavisufali fasebis garda zogierT gardamavali ekonomikis qveyanaSi moqmedebs, agreTve, saxelmwifo fasebi, romlebic wesdeba im dargebis produqtebze, romlebsac monopoliuri mdgomareoba uWiravT bazarze (eleqtroenergia, airi da sxv.) saxelmwfio fasi SeiZleba iyos zRvruli (magaliTad, saafTiaqo medikamentebze) fasi, romlis zeviT ar SeiZleba dawesdes fasi, fiqsirebuli (saxelmwifos mier mkacrad gansazRvruli fasi mosaxloebisaTvis) da regulirebadi (romelic SeiZleba saxelmwifos mier Seicvalos calkeuli regionebisa da periodebis mixedviT). fasebis statistikis winaSe dgas Semdegi amocanebi: bazarze saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fasebze dakvirveba. fasebis klasifikacia fasebis struqturis analizi fasebia variaciis analizi mosaxleobis cxovrebios doneze fasebis moqmedebis gazomvis maCvenebelTa sistemis SemuSaveba da gaangariSeba inflaciis donis gansazRvris meTodebis SemuSaveba da misi gavlenis Seswavla ekonomikis ganviTarebaze. fasebis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis realizeba xorcieldeba Sesabamisi maCvenebelTa sistemis safuZvelze, romelic SeiZleba ase CamovayaliboT: fasebis donis maCveneblebi fasebis struqturis maCveneblebi fasebis variaciis maCveneblebi fasebis elastiurobis maCveneblebi
107 fasebis dinamikis maCveneblebi
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi (sfi) asaxavs fasebis saSualo cvlilebas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fiqsirebul kalaTaze, romelsac moxmarebisaTvis SeiZens qalaqis mosaxleoba. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fasebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis gamosaTvlelad, grovdeba saqarTvelos xuTi qalaqis (Tbilisi, baTumi, quTaisi, gori, Telavi) sacalo vaWrobisa da momsaxurebis obieqtebSi – maRaziebSi, bazrebSi, benzingasamarT sadgurebSi, vaWrobisa da momsaxurebis sxva obieqtebSi. samomxmareblo kalaTaSi Semavali 282 dasaxelebis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sewonvis struqtura Camoyalibebulia SinameurneobaTa gamokvlevis safuZvelze sfi-is gaangariSebis bazaa 2006 wlis dekemberi. samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi iTvleba mniSvnelovan ekonomikur maCveneblad, romelic axasiaTebs inflaciis dones da gamoiyeneba ekonomikaSi fasebis cvlilebis donesTan dakavSirebuli procesebis analizisa da prognozirebisTvis. samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi gaiangariSeba laspeiresis indeqsiT:
I
pq p q
1 0 0
p
0
1 - konkretuli saqonlis (momsaxurebis) fasia sadac: (tarifia) saangariSo periodSi.
108
109
p0
- konkretuli saqonlis (tarifia) sabaziso periodSi periodSi.
(momsaxurebis)
fasia
q0
- konkretuli saqonlis (momsaxurebis) fizikuri moculobaa sabaziso periodSi. procentuli cvlileba wina TvesTan gaiangariSeba formuliT:
I t sadac:
I t I t 1 100 I t 1 I t
aris sfi-is procentuli cvlileba wina
I I TvesTan, t - saangariSo Tvis sfi, t 1 - wina Tvis sfi. saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris informaciiT, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi 2002-2008 wlebSi ase gamoiyureba. samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
saSualo wliuri wina wlis saSualo wliurTan dekemberi wina wlis dekemberTan saSualo wliuri 1995 wlis saSualo wliurTan
105.6
104.8
105.7
108.2
109.2
109.2
110.0
105.4
107.0
107.5
106.2
108.8
111.0
105.5
211.9
222.0
234.6
253.9
277.2
302.8
333.1
rogorc cxrilidan Cans samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi yovel wels wina welTan SedarebiT umniSvnelod izrdeba, xolo 1995 welTan SedarebiT Zalzed didia zrda. ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÀ ÒÈÖËÉ ÓÏÝÉÀËÖÒ-ÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÖÒÉ ÊÀÔÄÂÏÒÉÀÀ. ÉÂÉ, ÒÏÂÏÒÝ ÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÖÒÉ ÌÏÅËÄÍÀ, ÃÉÃÉ áÀÍÉÀ ÀÒÓÄÁÏÁÓ. ÌÀÒÈÀËÉÀ, ÌÉÓÉ ßÀÒÌÏÛÏÁÉÓ ÆÖÓÔÉ ÐÄÒÉÏÃÉ ÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÖÒ ËÉÔÄÒÀÔÖÒÀÛÉ ÀÒ ÓÀáÄËÃÄÁÀ, ÌÀÂÒÀÌ ÈÉÈØÌÉÓ ÚÅÄËÀ ÌÊÅËÄÅÀÒÉ ÈÅËÉÓ, ÒÏÌ ÉÂÉ ÃÀÀáËÏÄÁÉÈ ×ÖËÉÓ ÛÄÌÏÙÄÁÉÓ ÐÄÒÉÏÃÓ ÄÌÈáÅÄÅÀ. ÈÅÉÈ „ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ“ ÝÍÄÁÀ ßÀÒÌÏÛÏÁÉËÉÀ ËÀÈÉÍÖÒÉ inflatio-ÓÀÂÀÍ, ÒÀÝ ÍÉÛÍÀÅÓ ÂÀÁÄÒÅÀÓ. ÅÀÒÀÖÃÏÁÄÍ, ÒÏÌ ÐÉÒÅÄËÀà ÔÄÒÌÉÍÉ „ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÀ“ áÌÀÒÄÁÀÛÉ ÛÄÌÏÅÉÃÀ ÜÒÃÉËÏÄÈ ÀÌÄÒÉÊÀÛÉ 1861-1865 ßËÄÁÛÉ ÃÀ ÉÂÉ ÀÙÍÉÛÍÀÅÃÀ ÉÓÄÈ ÐÒÏÝÄÓÓ, ÒÏÌÄËÉÝ ÉßÅÄÅÃÀ ÁÒÖÍÅÀÛÉ ÀÒÓÄÁÖËÉ ØÀÙÀËÃÉÓ ×ÖËÉÓ ÌÏÝÖËÏÁÉÓ ÆÒÃÀÓ, ÞÉÒÉÈÀÃÀà ÃÀÊÀÅÛÉÒÄÁÖËÓ ÓÀÌáÄÃÒÏ áÀÒãÄÁÉÓ ÃÀ×ÉÍÀÍÓÄÁÀÓÈÀÍ. ÈÖÌÝÀ, ÞÍÄËÉÀ ÉÌÉÓ ÌÔÊÉÝÄÁÀ, ÒÏÌ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÖÒ ÐÒÏÝÄÓÄÁÓ Ö×ÒÏ ÀÃÒÉÍÃÄË ÐÄÒÉÏÃÛÉ ÀÒ äØÏÍÃÀ ÀÃÂÉËÉ. ÀÌÉÓ ÓÀ×ÖÞÅÄËÓ ÉÞËÄÅÀ XVII ÓÀÖÊÖÍÉÓ ÓÀ×ÒÀÍÂÄÈÛÉ ØÀÙÀËÃÉÓ ×ÖËÉÓ ÛÄÌÏÙÄÁÀ, ÒÏÌÄËÉÝ ÓÖË ÌÏÊËÄ ÃÒÏÛÉ ÃÀÌÈÀÅÒÃÀ ÌÏÖÈÏÊÀÅÉ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÈ ÃÀ ØÅÄÚÍÉÓ ÓÀ×ÉÍÀÍÓÏ-ÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÖÒÉ ÓÉÓÔÄÌÉÓ ÌÏÛËÉÈ. ÀÙÓÀÍÉÛÍÀÅÉÀ, ÒÏÌ „ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ“ ÊÀÔÄÂÏÒÉÀ ÜÒÃÉËÏÄÈ ÀÌÄÒÉÊÉÃÀÍ ÈÀÍÃÀÈÀÍÏÁÉÈ áÌÀÒÄÁÀÛÉ ÛÄÌÏÅÉÃÀ ÄÅÒÏÐÉÓ ØÅÄÚÍÄÁÛÉ ÃÀ, ÖÐÉÒÅÄËÄÓ ÚÏÅËÉÓÀ, ÃÉà ÁÒÉÔÀÍÄÈÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀ×ÒÀÍÂÄÈÛÉ. ÈÀÅÃÀÐÉÒÅÄËÀà ÀÙÍÉÛÍÖËÉ ÊÀÔÄÂÏÒÉÀ ÂÀÌÏÉÚÄÍÄÁÏÃÀ ÁÀÍÊÉÒÄÁÉÓÀ ÃÀ ×ÉÍÀÍÓÉÓÔÄÁÉÓ ßÒÄÛÉ, áÏËÏ ÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÖÒ ËÉÔÄÒÀÔÖÒÀÛÉ ×ÀÒÈÏà ÌÉÓÉ ÂÀÌÏÚÄÍÄÁÀ ÓÀÈÀÅÄÓ ÉÙÄÁÓ XX ÓÀÖÊÖÍÉÓ ÃÀÓÀßÚÉÓÉÃÀÍ. ×ÀØÔÏÁÒÉÅÀà ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÖÒÌÀ ÐÒÏÝÄÓÄÁÌÀ ×ÀÒÈÏ ÂÀÓÀØÀÍÉ ÌÉÉÙÏ ÐÉÒÅÄËÉ ÃÀ ÌÄÏÒÄ ÌÓÏ×ËÉÏ ÏÌÄÁÉÓ ÛÄÌÃÄ ÃÀ ÓßÏÒÄà ÀÌ ÃÒÏÉÃÀÍ ÉßÚÄÁÀ ÌÉÓÉ ÓÉÙÒÌÉÓÄÖËÉ ÌÄÝÍÉÄÒÖËÉ ÊÅËÄÅÀ, ÈÖÌÝÀ ÉÂÉ ãÄÒ ÊÉÃÄÅ ÀÒÀÀ ÓÒÖËÚÏ×ÉËÀà ÛÄÓßÀÅËÉËÉ ÃÀ ÌÉÓÉ ÌÈÄËÉ ÒÉÂÉ ÈÄÏÒÉÖËÌÄÈÏÃÏËÏÂÉÖÒÉ ÀÓÐÄØÔÄÁÉ ÃÙÄÓÀÝ ÃÉÓÊÖÓÉÉÓ ÓÀÂÀÍÓ ßÀÒÌÏÀÃÂÄÍÓ. ÌÓÏ×ËÉÏ ÂÀÌÏÝÃÉËÄÁÀ ÂÅÉÜÅÄÍÄÁÓ, ÒÏÌ ×ÖËÀÃÉ ÌÀÓÉÓ ÌÀÔÄÁÀ ÀÖÝÉËÄÁËÀà 2-3 ÈÅÉÓ ÛÄÌÃÄ ÉßÅÄÅÓ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ ÆÒÃÀÓ. ÌÀÂÀËÉÈÀÃ, 19881992 ßËÄÁÛÉ ÀÛÛ-ÛÉ ×ÖËÀÃÉ ÌÀÓÉÓ ÓÀÛÖÀËÏßËÉÖÒÉ ÆÒÃÉÓ ÔÄÌÐÉ ÛÄÀÃÂÄÍÃÀ 5,4 ÐÒÏÝÄÍÔÓ, áÏËÏ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ ÆÒÃÉÓ ÓÀÛÖÀËÏßËÉÖÒÉ ÔÄÌÐÉ - 4,9%. ÓÀ×ÒÀÍÂÄÈÛÉ ÛÄÓÀÁÀÌÉÓÀà 10,6 ÃÀ 2,9%, ÉÀÐÏÍÉÀÛÉ - 5,6 ÃÀ 2,2%. ÒÖÓÄÈÛÉ 1993 ßÄËÓ ßÀÒÌÏÄÁÉÓ ÃÀÝÄÌÉÓ ÐÉÒÏÁÄÁÛÉ ×ÖËÉÓ ÌÀÓÉÓ ÆÒÃÀÌ 17,3%-ÉÈ ÂÀÌÏÉßÅÉÀ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ ÔÄÌÐÉÓ ÚÏÅÄËÈÅÉÖÒÉ ÆÒÃÀ 20-
110 25 ÐÒÏÝÄÍÔÉÈ. ÀÍÀËÏÂÉÖÒ ÊÀÍÏÍÆÏÌÉÄÒÄÁÀÓ ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÛÉ 1992-1995 ßËÄÁÛÉ.
111 äØÏÍÃÀ
ÀÃÂÉËÉ
ÈÀÍÀÌÄÃÒÏÅÄ ÂÀÂÄÁÉÈ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ ÀÒÓÉ ÌÃÂÏÌÀÒÄÏÁÓ ÄÒÏÅÍÖËÉ ÅÀËÖÔÉÓ ÂÀÖ×ÀÓÖÒÄÁÀÛÉ ÓÀØÏÍËÉÓ, ÌÏÌÓÀáÖÒÄÁÉÓ ÃÀ ÖÝáÏÖÒÉ ÅÀËÖÔÄÁÉÓ ÌÉÌÀÒÈ. ÌÀÂÒÀÌ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÉÓ ÛÉÍÀÀÒÓÛÉ ÌÀÉÍÝ ÌÈÀÅÀÒÉÀ ×ÀÓÄÁÉ, ÌÉÓÉ ÓÀÄÒÈÏ ÃÏÍÉÓ ÆÒÃÀ. ÈÖÌÝÀ, ÒÏÂÏÒÝ ÖÊÅÄ ÀÙÉÍÉÛÍÀ, ×ÀÓÄÁÉÓ ÆÒÃÀ ÚÏÅÄËÈÅÉÓ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÀÓÈÀÍ ÀÒÀÀ ÃÀÊÀÅÛÉÒÄÁÖËÉ. ×ÀÓÄÁÉÓ ÆÒÃÀ ÛÄÉÞËÄÁÀ ÂÀÌÏßÅÄÖËÉ ÉÚÏÓ ÓÀØÏÍËÉÓ ÌÏÈáÏÅÍÉÓ Ö×ÒÏ ÌÀÙÀËÉ ÃÏÍÉÈ ÌÉßÏÃÄÁÀÓÈÀÍ ÛÄÃÀÒÄÁÉÈ. ÀÓÄÈÉ ÃÉÓÐÒÏÐÏÒÝÉÀ ÌÈÄË ÒÉ ÛÄÌÈáÅÄÅÀÛÉ ÀÒ ßÀÒÌÏÀÃÂÄÍÓ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÀÓ. ÃÀÌÏÖÊÉÃÄÁËÀà ×ÖËÀÃÉ Ó×ÄÒÏÓÀÂÀÍ, ÓÀØÏÍÄËÆÄ ×ÀÓÄÁÉ ÛÄÉÞËÄÁÀ ÛÄÉÝÅÀËÏÓ ÛÒÏÌÉÓ ÍÀÚÏ×ÉÄÒÄÁÉÓ ÀÌÀÙËÄÁÉÓ, ÝÉÊËÖÒÉ ÃÀ ÓÄÆÏÍÖÒÉ ÒÚÄÅÄÁÉÓ, ÊÅËÀÅßÀÒÌÏÄÁÉÓ ÓÉÓÔÄÌÀÛÉ ÓÔÒÖØÔÖÒÖËÉ ÞÅÒÄÁÉÓ, ÁÀÆÒÉÓ ÌÏÍÏÐÏËÉÆÀÝÉÉÓ, ÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÉÓ ÓÀáÄËÌßÉ×ÏÄÁÒÉÅÉ ÒÄÂÖËÉÒÄÁÉÓ, ÂÀÃÀÓÀáÀÃÄÁÉÓ ÀáÀËÉ ÂÀÍÀÊÅÄÈÄÁÉÓ ÛÄÌÏÙÄÁÉÓ, ×ÖËÀÃÉ ÄÒÈÄÖËÉÓ ÃÄÅÀËÅÀÝÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÒÄÅÀËÅÀÝÉÉÓ, ÁÀÆÒÉÓ ÊÏÍÉÖØÔÖÒÉÓ ÝÅËÉËÄÁÉÓ, ÓÀÂÀÒÄÏÄÊÏÍÏÌÉÊÖÒÉ ÊÀÅÛÉÒÄÁÉÓ ÆÄÂÀÅËÄÍÉÓ, ÓÔÉØÉÖÒÉ ÖÁÄÃÖÒÄÁÉÓ ÃÀ ÓáÅÀ ×ÀØÔÏÒÄÁÉÓ ÆÄÌÏØÌÄÃÄÁÉÓ ÛÄÃÄÂÀÃ. ÝáÀÃÉÀ, ÒÏÌ ×ÀÓÄÁÉÓ ÚÏÅÄËÂÅÀÒÉ ÆÒÃÀ ÀÒÀÀ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÀÓÈÀÍ ÃÀÊÀÅÛÉÒÄÁÖËÉ, ÀÌÉÔÏÌ ÂÀÍÓÀÊÖÈÒÄÁÉÈ ÌÍÉÛÅÍÄËÏÅÀÍÉÀ ÌÊÀ×ÉÏà ÂÀÌÏÉÊÅÄÈÏÓ ÉÍ×ËÀÝÉÖÒÉ ÌÏÅËÄÍÄÁÉÓ ÂÀÌÏÌßÅÄÅÉ ×ÀØÔÏÒÄÁÉ ÃÀ ÌÉÆÄÆÄÁÉ. inflacias iwvevs fulis mimoqcevis arxebis Warbi, zedmeti fulis masiT avseba Sesabamisi sasaqonlo uzrunvelyofis anu sasaqonlo masis adeqvaturi zrdis gareSe. Sedegad izrdeba fasebi rogorc samomxmareblo, ise sawarmoo daniSnulebis saqonelze, Zvirdeba mosaxleobis saarsebo saSualebebi, biznessa da menejmentSi produqciisa da momsaxurebis TviTRirebuleba, ecema mogeba. mTavroba rig SemTxvevebSi, iZulebulia gaataros dezinflaciuri RonisZiebani mimoqcevidan fulis masis amoRebis politika gadasaxadebis gazrdis, Sromis anazRaurebis Semcirebis, sakredito restriqciis anu sakredito Tanxebis Semcirebis, saxelmwifo biujetidan ekonomikis, agreTve, socialurkulturuli RonisZiebebis dafinansebis Semcirebisa da sxva RonisZiebebis gatarebis gziT.
inflaciuri movlenebi mravali, sxvadasxva niSniT SeiZleba davajgufoT anu movaxdinoT maTi klasifikacia. am niSnebidan yvelaze mTavaria inflaciis siswrafe. am niSniT inflacia SeiZleba iyos ,,mcocavi~ (mJRavndeba fasebis TandaTanobiT zrdaSi xangrZlivi periodis manZilze), ,,Wenebadi~ (mJRavndeba fasebis naxtomisebur zrdaSi) da hiperinflacia (berZnuli hnper - zeviT) (mJRavndeba fasebis Zalze maRali zrdis tempebSi). miRebulia, rom TveSi 50%-mde fasebis zrda Wenebadia, xolo 50%-ze zeviT hiperinflaciaa. amis garda inflacia SeiZleba iyos Ria (romelic kargad Cans samomxmareblo saqonelsa da sawarmoo resursebze fasebis zrdiT) da daxuruli (rac gamowveulia sasaqonlo deficitiT da Cans arapirdapir, warmoebis danaxarjebis gadidebiTa da mogebis TandaTanobiTi SemcirebiT biznesSi). inflaciis sidides (dones) statistikaSi zomaven procentulad saangariSo da sabaziso periodebis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsebis safuZvelze Semdegi formulis gamoyenebiT:
Iinfl.
sadac
I p1 I p0
I p1 I p0 I p0
Iinfl.
100
- inflaciis done procentulad;
- saangariSo periodis fasebis indeqsi;
- sabaziso periodis fasebis indeqsi. mocemuli formala asedac SeiZleba Caiweros:
112
113
Ip Iinfl. 1 1 100 Ip 0 magaliTi. rogorc zemoT mocemuli cxrilidan Cans, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsma saqarTveloSi 2007 wels
I 9.2
I 10.0
p0 p1 Seadgina: , xolo 2008 wels cxadia am periodSi inflaciis done Seadgens:
Iinfl.
I p1 I p0 I p0
100
10.0 9.2 100 8.7% 9.2
e.i. saqarTveloSi inflaciis procenti 2007-2008 wlebSi Seadgenda: 8.7 % cxadia, inflaciis es maCveneblebi asaxulia Sesabamisi wlebis mixedviT gaangariSebuli iseTi mniSvnelovani makroekonomikuri indikatoris sidideebSi, rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqti. 2003 w., magaliTad, saqarTveloSi mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebam mimdinare fasebSi (nominaluri sidide) Seadgina 8564 mln lari, xolo 2007 da 2008 wlebSi, Sesabamisad 16994 mln da 19070 mln lari. maSasadame 2008 wels saqarTveloSi nominaluri mTliani produqti gaizarda 2007 wlis mimarT 1,12-jer anu 12%-iT, xolo 2003 wlis mimarT 2,23-jer, anu 123%-iT. magram es maCveneblebi araa realuri, vinaidan maTi nawili gadidebulia ara realurad qveyanaSi warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, aramed inflaciis xarjze. rogor gamovTiSoT inflaciis gavlena makroekonomikur maCveneblebze da davadginoT maTi dinamikis realuri suraTi?
amisaTvis msoflio statistikur Teoriasa da praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba e.w. deflilirebis meTodi. deflilireba ewodeba ekonomikuri maCveneblebidan inflaciis gavlenis gamoTiSvis process, romlis ganxorcielebis miznebisaTvis gamoiyeneba deflatorebi. deflatori (laT. deflecto) ewodeba koeficients, romelic gamoiyeneba fulad gamosaxulebaSi gaangariSebuli ekonomikuri maCveneblebis gadasaangariSeblad, wina periodis donesTan maTi saerTo mniSvnelamde dayvanis mizniT. ricxobrivad igi udris fasebis zrdis indeqss. msoflio statistikur Teorias da praqtikaSi defliatirebis procesis sami ZiriTadi meTodia gamoyenebuli. erTmagi defliatirebis, ormagi defliatirebisa da ekonomikuri maCveneblis fizikuri moculobis dinamikis defliatirebis meTodi. erTmagi deflirebis procesSi defliatorebad gamoiyeneba samomxmareblo fasebis an mTliani Sida produqtis indeqsi (mTliani Sida produqtis indeqsia am maCveneblis saangariSo periodis anu mimdinare fasebiT gamosaxuli sididisa da imave maCveneblis sabaziso periodis fasebSi gamosaxuli sidideebis ganayofi). samomxmareblo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebis indeqs-defliatorisagan gansxvavebiT, mTliani Sida produqtis indeqs-defliatori asaxavs, agreTve, Sromis anazRaurebis, ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis da wminda gadasaxadebis nominaluri masis cvalebadobas, rac gamowveulia fasebis cvalebadobiT. indeqs-defliatori mTels msoflioSi iangariSeba paaSes fasebis indeqsiT:
Idefl.
pq p q
1 1 0 1
114
115
sadac, wiladis mricxveli mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebaa saangariSo periodis fasebiT, xolo mniSvneli igive mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebaa sabaziso periodis fasebiT. nebismieri ekonomikuri maCveneblis (am SemTxvevaSi mimdinare fasebiT gamosaxuli mTliani Sida produqtis deflireba) warmoebs mimdinare periodSi amave mimdinare periodis fasebiT gamosaxuli nominaluri sididis indeqsdeflatorze gayofiT
qp q p I
1 1
1
0
defl.
magaliTi. saqarTveloSi mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebam, rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, 2003 wels Seadgina 8564 mln lari, xolo 2008 wels 19070 mln lari. zrdam 222.7%, anu moimata 122.7%-iT. am wlebSi samomxmareblo fasebi gaizarda 1,05-jer, rac SeiZleba gamoviyenoT indeqsdefliatorad. maSasadame 2008 wlis mTliani Sida produqti 2003 wlis fasebSi Seadgens:
q p 1
0
q1 p1 I defl.
19070 18161.9 1.05
mln. lars
mixedviT warmoebs rogorc produqciisa da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSvebis, aseve Sual3gamoSvebisaTvis defliatorad gamoiyeneba mTliani gamoSvebis fasebis paaSes indeqsi, xolo Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis moxmarebuli nedleulis, masalebis, saTbobis, naxevarfabrikatebisa da sxvaTa fasebis defliatori). maSasadame, pirvel etapze ekonomikis calkeuli dargebis mixedviT gaiangariSeba gamoSveba Sesadaris fasebSi (mimdinare fasebSi mTliani gamoSvebis fasebis indeqsze anu defliatorze gayofiT), meore etapze - Sualeduri moxmareba Sesadaris fasebSi (Sualeduri moxmareba mimdinare fasebSi gayofili Sualeduri moxmarebis elementebis fasebis defliatorze anu indeqsze), xolo mesame etapze - maTi sxvaobiT (gadafasebul mTlian gamoSvebas gamoklebuli gadafasebuli Sualeduri moxmareba) miiReba damatebuli Rirebuleba sabazro periodis fasebiT. dargebis mixedviT gaangariSebul damatebul RirebulebaTa jami gvaZlevs mTliani Sida produqtis realur Rirebulebas. defliatirebis mesame meTodi gulisxmobs sabaziso periodis damatebuli Rirebulebis
q p 0
0
eqstrapoliacias produqciisa da momsaxurebis fizikuri moculobis indeqsis gamoyenebiT. es ase SeiZleba Caiweros:
q1 p0
q p q p q p 1 0
0
0
maSasadame, am wlebSi mTliani Sida produqtis realuri moculoba gaizarda 2,12-jer. ormagi defliatirebis meTodi gulisxmobs mTliani Sida produqtis sawamroo meTodiT gaangariSebis kvalobaze TviT warmoebis doneze ekonomikis dargebis mixedviT. dargebis
0
0
sadac,
q p 1
0
produqciis damatebuli Rirebulebaa Sesadaris fasebSi;
116
117
q p q p
წლიური ინფლაცია
1
0
0
0
წლიური ინფლაცია (სამომხმარებლო ფასების ინდექსის პროცენტული ცვლილება წინა წლის შესაბამის თვესთან), %
produqciis fizikuri moculobis indeqsia;
q p 0
0
sabaziso periodis damatebuli Rirebulebaa. inflaciuri movlenebi da procesebi ekonomikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli inerciis kanonebis ZaliT didxans inarCuneben ganviTarebis Camoyalibebul tendenciebs. amas kargad iTvaliswineben biznesmenebi da awarmoeben nedleulis, saTbobis, eleqtroenergiis, naxevarfabrikatebis an mTlian mza produqciis winaswar Sesyidvas, riTac fasTasxvaobiT Rebuloben mogebas. aseT mogebas dasavleTis ekonomistebi holdingur mogebas uwodeben. aseTi saqmiTaa dakavebuli ara marto calkeuli biznesmenebi, aramed specialuri msxvili holdinguri kompaniebic da korporaciebic. es kompaniebi, umetes SemTxvevebSi, ar floben raime saxis TavianT sawarmoo potencials da holdinguri operaciebiT mniSvnelovani wili uWiravT calkeuli firmebis aqciaTa sakontrolo paketSi. saqarTvelos statiatikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemebiT inflaciis maCvenebeli Semdeg suraTs iZleva:
საშუალო წლიური ინფლაცია (12 თვის საშუალო), %
იანვარი-96
42,9
127,6
იანვარი-97
11,8
36,3
იანვარი-98
6,7
6,7
იანვარი-99
13,2
4,1
იანვარი-00
8,5
18,6
იანვარი-01
4,9
3,8
იანვარი-02
4,7
4,7
იანვარი-03
5,5
5,6
იანვარი-04
5,2
4,8
იანვარი-05
9,3
6,1
იანვარი-06
5,2
7,9
იანვარი-07
10,4
9,6
იანვარი-08
10,7
9,3
იანვარი-09
4,4
9,4
იანვარი-10
2,7
1,6
თებერვალი-10
5,6
1,9
მარტი-10
5,8
2,2
აპრილი–10
5,6
2,6
მაისი–10
4,0
2,7
ივნისი-10
3,7
2,8
118
119
Tema 6. safondo birJebis da fasiani qaRaldebis statistika fasiani qaRaldebiT vaWroba mimdinareobs saerTaSoriso safinanso bazrebze, iseTi msxvili finansuri centrebis birJebze, rogoricaa niu-iorki, londoni, parizi, frankfurti, tokio, ciurixi. SegaxsenebT, rom garda safondo (savaluto) birJebisa (Stock Exchanges) arsebobs aseve sasaqonlo birJebi (Commodity Exchanges),sadac mimdinareobs vaWroba garkveuli saqonliTa da produqtebiT (feradi liTonebiT, bambiT, SaqriT da a.S.). birJebi viTardebian ramdenime aswleulis ganmavlobaSi. pirveli maTgani Camoyalibda antverpenSi 1531 wels, Semdeg londonSi 1561 wels, niuiorkSi uol tritze 1792 wels. birJa uol stritze niu-iorkSi warmoadgens kerZo sazogadoebas, romelic erTianebs daaxloebiT 1500 wevrs. am birJis romelime wevris sikvdilis SemTxvevaSi, ms adgils yidian auqcionze masze, vinc mets gadaixdis. dasavleTis yvela qveyanaSi birJebs akontrolebs specialuri saxelmwifo organo, agaliTad, aSS-Si — safondo birJebis saqmeebisa da fasiani qaRaldebis komisia. ResdReobiT msoflios udidesi birJa tokioSia. masSi xdeba 1520 sawarmos qciis kotireba. fasiani qaRaldebiT vaWroba warmoebs e.w. sabirJo dros, magaliTad, niuiorkis birJaze: 8—12-mde da 13.30—16 saaTamde. myidvelisa da gamyidvelis saxiT birJaze SeiZleba mogvevlinos mxolod brokeri makleri) (Broker), romelic asrulebs Tavisi kllientebis SekveTebs da amisaTvis Rebulobs brunvidan garkveul procents. arsebobs e.w. sabrokero firmebi an samaklero kantorebi. amerikuli firmebidan msxvilesia — `meril linCi~, romlis qonebac Sefasebulia 55 miliard dolarad. masSi dasaqmebulia
44 aTasi adamiani, romlebic mudmivad emsaxurebian 5 milion klients. bazarze arsebuli fasebis moZraobis tendenciebis mixedviT ganasxvaveben xarebis an daTvebis bazars. xarebis bazars (Bull Market) adgili aqvs, rodesac fasebi izrdeba aqciebis aqtiuri Sesyidvis Sedegad. daTvebis bazris (Bear Market) dros, aqciebis fasebi iklebs am aqciebze dabali moTxovnis arsebobis gamo, rac niSnavs, rom SeTavazebuli aqciebi ar gaiyideba fasis daklebis gareSe. rodesac vsaubrobT birJebze, fasiani qaRaldebiT vaWrobaze, unda vicodeT ramdenime terminis mniSvneloba. safondo birJa — organizacia, romlis wevrebsac aqvT ufleba iyidon da gayidon fasiani qaRaldebi sxva pirebisaTvis. sasaqonlo birJa — specializirebulia operaciebze, romelic dakavSirebulia Zvirfas liTonebTan, saTbobTan, ucxour valutasTan da sasoflo-sameurneo produqciasTan (marcvleuli, saqoneli, Saqari) marJa — (marJiT vaWroba) es aris aqciebis yidva fuliT, romlis nawilic sesxis saxiT aRebulia brokerTan. marJis ganakveTi winaswar aris gansazRvruli (magaliTad, aSS-Si is ganisazRvreba federaluri sarezervo sistemiT). fuli, romelic brokerTan iyo aRebuli sesxis saxiT, ukan unda daubrundes mas procentebiT. marJiT nayidi aqciebi brokerTan inaxeba garantis saxiT. aqciis danawevreba— rodesac aqcionerebs erTi aqciis magivrad aZleven 2 da met aqciebs. magaliTad, Tu I-is aqcia Rirda 150 dolari, xolo
120 firmam moaxdina aqciis danawevreba 5—1-Tan mimarTebaSi, maSin I-is erTi aqciis mflobeli avtomaturad gaxdeba 5 aqciis mflobeli. magram erTi aqciis Rirebuleba iqneba ara 150 dolari, aramed 30 dolari. umTavresad es keTdeba imis gamo, rom investorebs gauadvildeT mTliani lotis (100 aqciis) SeZena. loti — romelime kompaniis 100 aqcia. jeradi loti — aqciaTa partia, romelic aris 100-is jeradi. diversifikacia — ewodeba process, romlis drosac kapitalis Cadeba xdeba sxvadasxva faseulobebSi (Cvens SemTxvevaSi, fasian qaRaldebSi), raTa SevamciroT investiciis riski. magaliTad, investorma SeiZleba Cados Tavisi kapitalis 30% swrafad zrdad aqciebSi, romlisTvisac damaxasiaTebelia maRali riski. kidev 30% konservatorul saxelmwifo obligaciebSi. 15% — Semosavlian aqciebSi, xolo danarCeni Tanxa ganaTavsos bankSi gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebisaTvis da SemdgomSi ufro kargi (perspeqtiuli) fulis ganTavsebis (investiciis) molodiniT. imis gamo, rom kapitalis gadanawileba xdeba sxvadasxva seqtorebSi, misi mTlianad dakargvis albaToba dayvanilia minimumamde. investiciuri strategiis es tipi, rogorc wesi, iwodeba investiciuri strategiis portfelad. hedjireba — investicia, romelic icavs investors danakargebisagan sxva investiciaze. hedjireba aris umniSvnelovanesi instrumenti, raTa Seamciron TavianTi riskebi mwarmoeblebma, gadamamuSaveblebma da gamyidvelebma, radgan sufTa saxiT hedjireba niSnavs saqonlisa da produqciis yidvas da gayidvas fiuCersul bazarze — mimdinare situaciidan da samomavlo moTxovnebidan gamomdinare. aqciebis kotirebis (kursis) indeqsi (Quotation Index) — es aris birJebze umniSvnelovanesi kursis maCvenebeli. is, rogorc wesi, aerTianebs umsxvilesi sawarmoebis aqciebis
121 kurss. aqciebis kotirebis indeqsi warmoadgens birJaze klimatis Tavisebur indikators. sabirJo indeqsebi warmoadgenen safondo vaWrobisa da calkeul dargebSi mdgomareobis statistikuri ganzogadebis, kvlevisa da prognozirebisaTvis sakvanZo maCvenebels. zogierTi maTgani warmoadgens aqciis kursis cvlilebis ubralo saSualo ariTmetikuls, zogi ki warmoadgens indeqss am sityvis tradiciuli mniSvnelobiT, anu saSualo Sewonil sidides. bevri indeqsi gamodis, rogorc safondo vaWrobis damoukidebeli obieqti: am indeqsebis mixedviT formdeba fiuCersuli kontraqtebi, gamoiwereba ofcionebi da ofcionebi fiuCersul kontraqtebze. dou-jonsis indeqsi Seqmnes 1884 wels Carlz doum (Charles Dow) da eduard jonsma (Eduard Jones) (aqedan Semoklebulia dou-jonsi). Tavdapirvelad maT aiRes imdroindeli 11 mTavari korporaciis aqciebis Rirebuleba. maT Sekribes am aqciaTa fasi da gayves 11-ze. indeqsi modernizebuli iqna 1928 wels. igi ganisazRvreba dRis ganmavlobaSi yovel saaTSi. arsebobs dou-jonsis oTxi indeqsi: 1. dou-jonsis samrewvelo indeqsi ( DJIA) — aris 30 msxvili samrewvelo korporaciis aqciebis kursis cvlilebis saSualo maCvenebeli (maT Soris ori kompania — `ameriken eqspres~ da `ameriken telefon end telegraf~ ar SeiZleba CaiTvalos samrewvelod, magram isini Sedian am indeqsSi). dou-jonsis samrewvelo indeqsi warmoadgens safondo bazrebis yvela maCvenebelTa Soris yvelaze Zvelsa da yvelaze metad gavrcelebuls. misi Semadgenloba ar aris ucvleli, misi komponentebi SeiZleba Seicvalos aSS-s ekonomikisa da bazarze msxvili samrewvelo korporaciis mier dakavebuli poziciidan gamomdinare, Tumca Tanamedrove pirobebSi aseTi SemTxvevebi iSviaTia. McDonald’s Corporation aris pirveli sacalo vaWrobis firma, romelic vaWrobs kvebis produqtebiT da moxvda doujonsis samrewvelo indeqsSi
122 im 30 kompaniis aqciaTa CamonaTvali, romelic CarTulia doujonsis samrewvelo indeqsSi Alcoa, Exxon-Mobil, McDonald's, American Express, General Electric, Merck, AT&T Corp, General Motors, Microsoft, Boeing, Hewlett-Packard, MN Mining Manufacturing (3M), Caterpillar, Home Depot, Morgan JP, Citigroup, Honeywell, Philip Morris, Coca Cola, IBM, Procter & Gamble, Disney, Intel, SBC Communications, DuPont, International Paper, United Technologies, Eastman Kodak, Johnson & Johnson, Walmart. 2. dou-jonsis satransporto indeqsi ( DJTA) aris saSualo maCvenebeli, romelic axasiaTebs 20 satransporto korporaciis (aviakompaniis, sarkinigzo korporaciisa da saavtomobilo gzebis kompaniis) aqciebis fasebis moZraobas. 3. dou-jonsis komunaluri indeqsi ( DJUA) — saSualo maCvenebeli, romelic axasiaTebs gazisa da eleqtromommaragebeli 15 kompaniis aqciebis kursis cvlilebebs. 4. dou-jonsis krebiTi indeqsi (The Dow Jones Composite) (cnobilia agreTve dasaxelebiT indeqs-65) — maCvenebeli, romelic dgeba samrewvelo, satransporto da komunaluri indeqsebis bazaze. dou-jonsis indeqsis garda aSS-Si gavrcelebulia iseTi indeqsebi, rogoricaa: indeqsi `sTendard end fuarz-500~ (warmoadgens 500 korporaciis aqciebis sabazro Rirebulebis saSualo Sewonils. masSi Sedis 400 samrewvelo korporacia, 20 satransporto, 40 safinanso da 40 komunaluri kompania), indeqsi `sTendard end fuarz-100~, niu-iorkis safondo birJis indeqsi, amerikis safondo birJis ZiriTadi sabazro indeqsi (warmoadgens 20 wamyvani samrewvelo korporaciis aqciebis fasis cvlilebis saSualo maCvenebels), amerikis safondo birJis sabazro Rirebulebis indeqsi (warmoadgens maCvenebels, romelic ganisazRvreba masSi komponentebis saxiT CarTuli
123 korporaciebis mier gamoSvebuli yvela aqciis sabazro Rirebulebis mixedviT. pirvelad igi gamoqveynebuli iyo 1973 wels da 1983 wlis ivlisamde aerTianebda 100 punqts. 1993 wlis ivlisSi moxda misi kotireba. igi moicavs komponentebis saxiT 800 gamoSvebis aqciebs). rodesac vsaubrobT fasian qaRaldebsa da safondo birJebze, aucileblad unda vaxsenoT NASDAQ-i. aSS-is safondo birJebis Sesaxeb 1934 wels miRebul kanonSi 1938 wels Setanili iqna sayovelTaod cnobili e.w. melonis Sesworebebi, romlis Sesabamisad, daarsda fasiani qaRaldebis dilerTa nacionaluri asociacia (NASD) NASD-s zedamxedvelobs fasiani qaRaldebisa da birJebis komisia. igi aris uzarmazari TviTregulirebadi organizacia, romlis wevrebs aqtiurad warmoadgenen aSS-s yvela is brokerdilerebi, romlebic dakavebulni arian fasiani qaRaldebis biznesiT. NASDAQ-is aqciebis bazari aris yvelaze ufro mowinave fasiani qaRaldebis bazari, romelic imarTeba da regulirdeba NASD-is mier. igi warmoadgens uzarmazar eleqtronul, demonstrirebul (ekranul) aqciebis bazars. iyenebs ra mowinave kompiuterul da telekomunikaciur teqnologiebs, sadac CarTulni arian monawileebi, NASDAQ-i aZlevs uflebas monawile firmebs sakuTari da investorebis xarjze realur droSi Seasrulon garigebebi. NASDAQ-i tradiciuli birJebisagan gamoirCeva bazris Semqmnelebis (Market Makers) mravalferovnebiT, romlebic Ria konkurencias uweven erTmaneTs investorebis davalebebis Sesrulebaze. daarsda ra 1970 wels, dResdReobiT NASDAQ-ze xdeba amerikis bazarze aqciebiT Sesrulebuli garigebebis naxevarze meti da igi warmoadgens msoflioSi meore bazars vaWrobis moculobiT. NASDAQ-Si ufro meti adgilobrivi da sazRvargareTuli kompaniaa listingSi Setanili, vidre aSS-is yvela sxva fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze erTad aRebuli. yovelwliurad NASDAQze aqciebis wliuri brunva miaxloebiT Seadgens 100- 102
124 miliard cals, rac Tanxobrivad udris 2,4-2,5 trilion dolars. aqciebis saSualo dRiuri brunva Seadgens 400-402 milion cals, xolo Tanxobrivad — 9,4-9,6 miliard dolars. NASDAQ-is listingSi CarTulia miaxloebiT 5200 kompaniis aqciebi da registrirebulia miaxloebiT 520 bazris Semqmneli. sxva qveynebis indeqsebidan aRsaniSnavia inglisSi: `FT-30~ — uZvelesi indeqsia inglisSi (1935 w.); `FT-100~ — yvelaze popularuli indeqsi inglisSi, iangariSeba 100 kompaniis aqciis kursidan; `FT-250~ — gamoiTvleba saSualo sididis kompaniebis aqciebis kursidan, es is Semdegi 250 kompaniaa, `FT-100~-Si Semaval kompaniebs rom mosdevs. `FT-350~ — aerTianebs indeqss `FT-100~ da `FT-250~. saerTo indeqsi FT did britaneTSi yvelaze ufro momcveli indeqsia, iangariSeba 750 kompaniis aqciaTa kursis mixedviT dReSi erTxel. iaponiis ZiriTadi indeqsebia: nikei (Nikkei) 1950 wlidan iangariSeba tokios birJis erTi seqciis 225 aqciis bazaze dou-jonsis indeqsis msgavsad. klasikuri indeqsi TOPIX 1968 wlidan iangariSeba tokios birJis erTi seqciis yvela aqciidan. germaniaSi ZiriTadi safondo indeqsia DAX — iangariSeba 30 aqciis bazaze. iangariSeba agreTve kompozituri indeqsi CDAX — 320 aqciis bazaze. safrangeTSi ZiriTadi safondo indeqsi CAC-40 da generaluri indeqsi CACGeneral, igive SBF 250. CAC-40 iangriSeba safrangeTis birJebis sazogadoebis mier 40 umsxvilesi kompaniis aqciebis bazaze. 1993 wlidan `uol sTriT jornel~ aqveynebs `doujonsis~ msoflio indeqss, (Dow Jones World Stock Index), romelic iTvleba 13 qveynis 2200 kompaniis aqciebiT. fasiani qaRaldebis bazari saqarTveloSi jer kidev ganviTarebis Canasaxobriv stadiaSia. “saqarTvelos safondo birJa~ aris saaqcio sazogadoeba da moqmedebs “mewarmeTa
125 Sesaxeb” da `fasiani qaRaldebis bazris Sesaxeb~ saqarTvelos kanonebis Sesabamisad. misi sruli saxelwodebaa: qarTulad _ saaqcio sazogadoeba `saqarTvelos safondo birJa~; inglisurad – GSE. bolo dros ganviTarebulma movlenebma (finansuri krizisi, agvistos movlenebi) mkveTrad Seamcira aqtivoba safondo bazarze da Seaferxa mimdinare ganviTarebis procesebi. miuxedavad sirTuleebisa safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagento saangariSo periodSi ganagrZobda aqtiur TanamSromlobas bazris monawileebTan da atarebda RonisZiebebs bazris ganviTarebis xelSewyobisaTvis. birJis saqmianobis ZiriTad mizans warmoadgens saqarTveloSi fasiani qaRaldebis gamWvirvale da likviduri organizebuli bazris Camoyalibeba, sicocxlisunariani savaWro meqanizmis Seqmna da misi funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofa. birJis saqmianobis sagania: a) fasiani qaRaldebisa da sxva finansuri instrumentebis yidvisa da gayidvis Sesaxeb winadadebebis Segroveba; b) fasiani qaRaldebis sajaro vaWrobis organizeba sabirJo wesebis da procedurebis Sesabamisad; g) sabirJo vaWrobebis Sedegebis Sesaxeb da safondo bazarTan dakavSirebuli sxva informaciis gavrceleba. d) kanoniT gaTvaliswinebuli sxva saqmianoba. birJis sawesdebo kapitali Seadgens 30 000 (ocdaaTi aTas) lars. sawesdebo kapitali dayofilia 3 000 000 (sam milion) cal aqciad, romelTagan TiToeulis nominaluri Rirebuleba Seadgens 0.01 (erT meased) lars.
GSX indeqsi
(SemdgomSi - `indeqsi~) warmoadgens birJis savaWro sistemis oficialur indikators da misi gaangariSeba da gamoqveyneba xdeba qvemoT moyvanili wesebis mixedviT. indeqsis portfeli, an indeqsis baza warmoadgens fasiani
126 qaRaldebis nusxas, romlis safuZvelzec dgeba indeqsi. indeqsis bazaSi, ZiriTadad, Sedis savaWro sistemis listingSi arsebuli fasiani qaRaldebi.
saqarTvelos fasiani qaRaldebis bazari 2009 wlisTvis warmodgenili iyo bazris Semdegi licenzirebuli monawileebis saxiT: 1 safondo birJa, 1 fasiani qaRaldebis centraluri depozitari, 10 sabrokero kompania da 8 registratori. saqarTvelos safondo birJis mier mowodebuli informaciiT, 2009 wlis 31 dekembris monacemebiT saqarTvelos safondo birJis sistemaSi daSvebuli iyo 146 emitentis fasiani qaRaldi. mocemuli periodisTvis fasiani qaRaldebis garigebaTa saerTo moculobam Seadgina: 98.9 mln laris Rirebulebis 3 mlrd cali fasiani qaRaldi. aqedan birJis savaWro sesiaze dadebul garigebaTa moculobaa 12.7 mln erTeuli, RirebulebiT _ 3.1 mln lari, xolo birJis gareT dadebul garigebaTa moculoba _ 3 mlrd erTeuli, RirebulebiT _ 95.8
127 mln lari. dafiqsirebul garigebaTa saerTo moculobaSi registratorebis mier birJaze dafiqsirebul garigebaTa moculobas 98.3 procenti, xolo Rirebulebas 94.1 procenti uWiravs (moculobiT 2,9 mlrd cali, RirebulebiT _ 90.1 mln lari). sabrokero kompaniebis mier birJaze dadebul da dafiqsirebul garigebaTa raodenobam Seadgina 3,186, fasiani qaRaldebis moculobam _ 126.1 mln erTeuli, xolo Rirebulebam _ 17.6 mln lari. fasiani qaRaldi ewodeba fulad an sasaqonlo dokuments, romelic mflobels gansazRvruli qonebis an fuladi Semosavlis miRebis uflebas aZlevs. misi saxeebia: obligacia (obligatio) niSnavs valdebulebas da erTerTi gavrcelebuli fasiani qaRaldia. obligaciis mflobelma Seitana fuladi saxsrebi mocemuli fasiani qaRaldis SesaZenad da obligaciis gamomSvebi (anu emitenti), rogorc emisioneri, valdebulia warmodgenisTanave gaanaRdos is nominaluri Rirebulebis mixedviT, rasac dafarvas uwodeben. aqcia (action) - fasiani qaRaldia, romelic adasturebs misi mflobelis mier wilis Setanas aqcioneruli sazogadoebis sawesdebo kapitalSi. aqcioners ufleba aqvs miiRos aqcioneruli sazogadoebidan wili dividendis saxiT an kidev gayidos safondo birJaze Sesabamisi saaqcio kursis mixedviT. Tamasuqi (wechsel gacvla) grZelvadiani fasiani qaRaldia, romelic Sedgenilia werilobiTi formiT. Tamasuqi, am fasiani qaRaldis mflobels aZlevs kanoniT aRiarebul uflebas, miiRos fuladi vali gasazRvruli pirobebiT dafiqsirebuli vadis ganmavlobaSi. depozituri sertifikati (depoziti warmoSobilia laTinuri sityva depositum-isagan, rac niSnavs Sesanaxad datovebuls, magaliTad, fuladi anabrebi bankSi - sabanko depozitebi, xolo sityva sertifikati laTinuri sityva certifico-isaganaa warmoSobili da niSnavs ,,vamowmeb~) fasiani
128 qaRaldi, romelic adasturebs serTifikatis mflobelis mier fuladi saxsrebis bankSi Cadebas. Ceki dadgenili formis fuladi fasiani qaRaldia. is upiro gankargulebaa imis Taobaze, rom Cekis mlobelze (pirovnebaze, romelzedac gaica Ceki) Sesabamisma sakredito dawesebulebam unda gasces Sesabamisi Tanxa. ,,bankSi es Tanxa Camoiwereba Cekis gamcemis saCeko angariSebidan da gadaigzavneba an uSualod gaicema bankis mier Cekis mflobelze. aseTi saCeko operacia winaswaraa gaTvaliswinebuli saCeko xelSekrulebaSi banksa da Cekis gamcems Soris~. statistika safondo birJasa da fasian qaRaldebs Seiswavlis rogorc moculobiTi, ise xarisxobrivi maCveneblebiT. TiToeuli maTgani ganixileba fasiani qaRaldebis pirveladi da meoradi bazrebis mixedviT. pirvelad bazarze xdeba fasiani qaRaldebis emisia (gamoSveba) da maTi ganTavseba safondo birJaze, xolo meoard bazarze - garigebani da gayidvebi. orTave bazarze moqmedebs rogorc saxelmwifo, ise kerZo biznesi da menejmenti. saxelmwifo uSvebs, magaliTad, saxelmwifo moklevadian obiligaciebs da federaluri sesxebis obligaciebs. fasiani qaRaldebi SeuZlia gamouSvas, agreTve, adgilobrivi, municipaluri TviTmmarTvelobis organoebmac. pirveladi bazris moculobiTi statistikuri maCveneblebia: fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSvebis (emisiis) moculoba, bazarze ganTavsebis moculoba, gayidvidan amonagebis moculoba, saxelmwifo biujetSi (Tu es exeba saxelmwifosa da adgilobrivi organoebis mier gamoSvebul fasian qaRaldebs) Tanxebis mozidvis moculoba. emisiis anu gamoSvebis moculoba ganisazRvreba gamoSvebuli fasiani qaRaldebis gadamravlebiT nominalur anu sabazro Rirebulebaze. fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze ganTavsebis saerTo moculoba ganisazRvreba auqcionebze investorebis raodenobis gadamravlebiT nominalur fasze.
129 fasiani qaRaldebis gayidvebisagan miRebuli amonagebi ganisazRvreba gayiduli fasiani qaRaldebis raodenobis maT faqtiur fasebze gadamravlebiT. biujetSi gayidvebisagan moziduli Tanxebi ganisazRvreba mTliani saxelmwifos mier gamoSvebuli fasiani qaRaldebis gayidvis Rirebulebasa da dafarvis Tanxebis Soris sxvaobiT. statistika Seiswavlis, agreTve, TviT safondo birJis muSaobis safinanso-ekonomikur rogorc moculobriv, ise xarisxobriv maCveneblebs. safondo birJis, rogorc organizebuli erTeulis saerTo xasiaTis safinanso-ekonomikuri maCveneblebi iseTivea, rogoricaa Cveulebrivi rogorc safinanso ise arasafinanso seqtoris maCvenebelTa sistema (gamoSvebuli produqciis an momsaxurebis saerTo moculoba, momuSaveTa ricxovnoba, ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitali, mogeba-zarali, rentabeloba da sxv.). safondo birJis specifikuri ekonomikur-statistikuri maCveneblebia: birJis tevadoba, likviduroba, koncentracia, ,,Sefasebadoba~, struqtura, Semosavlianoba da sxv. birJis tevadoba anu bazris moculoba aris listing gavlili emitetentebisa (aqciebis, obligaciebis da sxv.) da kapitalizaciis (bazris masStabis - aqciebis Rirebulebis) saerTo moculoba. am maCvenebliT SeiZleba SevadaroT erTmaneTs sxvadasxva qveynis safondo birJebi. msoflioSi gamoirCeva yvelaze didi tevadobis 10 safondo birJa. maT Sorisaa: niu-iorkis (aSS) (10,0 trilion dolarze meti moculobis) nasdakis (aSS) (5,0 trilionze meti tevadobis) tokio (iaponia) (2,4 trilionze meti tevadobis) londonis (inglisi) (2,3 trilionze meti tevadobis) germaniis (1,0 trilionze meti) parizis (safr.) (991,0 mlrd dolarze meti) Sveicariis (689,0 mlrd dolarze meti)
130
131
amsterdamis (603,0 mlrd dolarze meti) italia (569 mlrd dolarze meti) toronto (543,0 mlrd dolarze meti) birJis likviduroba niSnavs birJis mTliani sabrunavi kapitalis gadaqcevis siswrafes fulad kapitalSi, anu vaWrobis siswrafes. misi pirdapiri maCveneblebia brunvadobis koeficienti
K
K da brunvadobis dReebi t
Q S
sadac, Q sabazro fasebSi;
- birJaze garigebaTa mTliani Rirebuleba
S - birJaze sabrunavi kapitalis (fasiani qaRaldebis) saSualo naSTi mocemul periodSi:
t
T K
sadac, T - kalendaruli dReebis ricxvia mocemul periodSi. safondo birJis koncentraciis maCvenebelia birJis kapitalis xvedriTi wili saerTo sabirJo kapitalis moculobaSi qveyanaSi da msoflioSi. magaliTad, zemoTmotanili 10 msxvili safondo birJidan niu-iorkis birJas uWiravs 24,0%-ze meti, nasdakis birJas 22,0%-ze meti da a.S. safondo birJis ,,Sefasebadobas~ angariSoben aqciis sabazro fasis SefardebiT mogebasTan da msjeloben aqciis kursis cvalebadobaze mogebasTan mimarTebaSi. safondo birJis mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia, agreTve, struqtura fasiani qaRaldebis mixedviT. aq CvenTvis cnobili struqturis SefardebiTi sidideebis gamoyenebiT gaiangariSeba fasiani qaRaldebis xvedriTi wili da am safuZvelze birJis
cvalebadi, fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Semadgenlobis indeqsebi. struqturuli cvalebadobani gavlenas axdens birJis safinanso-ekonomikuri maCveneblebis cvalebadobaze (maRali mogebis fasiani qaRaldebis xvedriTi wilis gadideba saerTo garigebaTa moculobaSi adidebs birJis Semosavlianobasa da mogebas, an kidev piriqiT). safondo birJis saerTo Semosavlebi Semosavlis sami sxvaobiT ganisaRzvreba: 1. Semosavlebi safondo birJis saerTo momsaxurebidan (fasiani momsaxurebis gavrceleba, sakliringo da sadepozito momsaxureba, sawevro Senatanebi da sxv.); 2. treidingis gadasaxadebi. treideri (ing. tradevaWroba) pirovnebaa, romelic monawileobs sabrokero da sadilero vaWrobaSi birJaze. treidingis gadasaxadebSi Sedis sabirJo mosakreblebi sabirJo garigebaTa mixedviT, saarendo terminalebiT momsaxureba da sxv. 3. listingze gadasaxadebi. listingi (ingl. list-sia) niSnavs kompaniis aqciebis siaSi Setanas. aqciebis siaSi Seitaneba is aqciebi, romelTa kotireba warmoebs mocemul birJaze. kotireba fasebis dadgenas gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldebze, valutasa da sxva saqonelze birJaze moqmedi sakanonmdeblo wesebisa da normebis mixedviT. sruli kotireba gulisxmobs fasebis dadgenas, romelsac sTavazoben birJis gamyidvelebi da myidvelebi. ukanaskneli periodis monacemebiT saSualod msoflios safondo birJebze swrafad izrdeba treidingidan Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili (31,2%-dan 42,7%-mde) da mcirdeba listingisa da saerTo momsaxurebidan safondo birJebis Semosavlebis xvedriTi wili. biznesmenebi, investorebi da menejerebi safondo birJaze fasiani qaRaldebis yidva-gayidvis garkveuli qcevis wesebsa da struqturas emorCilebian. pirvel yovlisa, gaiTvaliswineba bankebis depozitebze sabanko procenti, romelsac isini
132
133
miiReben Tavisufali fuladi Tanxebis bankebSi ganTavsebisas. cxadia, fasiani qaRaldis yidvisas biznesmenma, investorma da menejerma unda miiRos meti ekonomikuri sargebeli, vidre am Tanxis bankebSi depozitebze ganTavsebis pirobebSi miiReben. amitom statistikaSi dadgenilia meTodologia, romliTac gaiangariSeba fasiani qaRaldebidan Semosavlis sidide. magaliTad, obligaciisagan mosalodneli Semosavlebi ori nawilisagan Sedgeba: obligaciis arsebobis mTliani periodis manZilze procentuli Semosavlebi da sesxis (anu obligaciis nominalis ganaRdebis Tanxa). ama Tu im periodSi obligaciis Rirebulebas gansazRvraven Semdegi formulis gamoyenebiT: n
P t 1
Q
1 E
t
Q1
1 E N
sadac t , t -iuri sakupone procentuli gadaxdis nomeria; (kuponi fasiani qaRaldis nawilia mosaxevi talonis saxiT, romelic saTanado dros moexeva fasian qaRalds da banks gadaecema gasanaRdeblad) n - sakupone gadaxdebis raodenoba;
E - mimdinare saganakveTo kursia, romelsac uwodeben, agreTve, ganTavsebis ganakveTs da Cveulebrivad refinansirebis (axali fasiani qaRaldebis gamocemis) ganakveTis tolia;
Q1 - obligaciis nominaluri Rirebulebaa; N - obligaciis dafarvamde darCenili wlebi; Q sakupone Semosavali anu procentuli gadasaxdelebi;
QQ K
1 ( , sadac K - sakupone ganakveTia). obligaciis gamoSvebis momentSi sakupone da mimdinare saganakveTo kursebi erTmaneTs emTxveva. amasTan rogorc formulidan Cans:
a) Tu
K E maSin obligaciis
fasi nominalur Rirebulebaze dabalia da amboben, rom obligacia iyideba diskontiT; b) Tu piriqiTaa, K E maSin obligaciis fasi ufro maRalia, vidre misi nominaluri Rirebuleba da amboben, rom obligacia iyideba premiiT. aqedan ekonomikuri daskvna:
Tu refinansirebis ganakveTi ( E ) mcirdeba, obligaciidan miRebuli Semosavlebi diddeba da aWarbebs im Tanxebs, romlebic SeiZleboda biznesmenebs mieRoT am Tanxebis bankebSi sadepozito angariSebze ganTavsebiT, amitom aseT SemTxvevaSi investorebi upiratesobas aniWeben obligaciebis SeZenas. analogiuri gaangariSebani SeiZleba vawarmooT aqciis fasis gansazRvrisaTvis. sabolood miviRebT, rom aqciis fasi pirdapirproporciulia dividendisa da ukuproporciulia aqciis Semosavlianobis procentisa anu igive refinansirebis koeficientisa ( E ), rac Cven Rirebulebis gansazRvrisaTvis.
gamoviyeneT
obligaciis
savaluto gacvliTi kursi ewodeba erTi qveynis valutis fass, rac gamosaxulia sxva qveynis valutiT anu fuladi erTeulebiT. ase xdeba, magaliTad, ucxouri investiciebis dabandebisas sxva qveyanaSi, saerTaSoriso kreditebis miRebisas, saerTaSoriso savaWro garigebisas turistuli da samivlinebo mogzaurobisas da sxv. savaluto bazari ewodeba savaluto birJaze an birJis gareT bankTaSorisi da savaluto jixurebis meSveobiT valutis yidva-gayidvis urTierTobebs. valuta, romelic gamodis da mimoiqceva bazarze, SeiZleba iyos konventirebadi an arakonvertirebadi. rTuli konventirebadi ewodeba valutas, romlis mixedviT sabazro garigebebs araviTari winaRobani ar gaaCnia, xolo arakonvertirebadi valutis mimarT TiTqmis yvela operaciazea dawesebuli garkveuli sakanonmdeblo SezRudvebi. arsebobs, agreTve, nawilobriv konvertirebadi
134 valuta, romlis mixedviT mxolod zogierT operaciazea dawesebuli garkveuli SezRudvebi. msoflioSi arsebobs rogorc regionaluri (evropaSi londonis, ciurixis, frankfurtis, aziaSi - tokios, hinkongis, singapuris, amerikaSi - niuiorkis, losanJelesis, Cikagos) ise erovnuli savaluto bazrebi. regionalur bazrebze warmoebs msoflios ZiriTadi savaluto erTeulebis kotireba, xolo erovnul bazrebze rogorc Tavisufali konvertirebadi msoflio valutis ise erovnuli valutebis operaciebi. savaluto kotireba ewodeba valutis kursis dadgenas savaluto bazrebze (sityva kotireba warmoSobilia franguli sityva koter-isagan), rasac awarmoeben Sesabamisi kotirebis komisiebi da aqveyneben biuletenebSi. savaluto kursi savaluto bazarze yalibda moTxovna-miwodebis mixedviT. amas ewodeba Tavisuflad mcocavi savaluto kursi. xSir SemTxvevaSi aseTi stiqiuri procesis mosawesrigeblad erovnuli bankis meSveobiT TviT mTavroba axdens intervencias bazarze, ris Sedegadac yalibdeba SedarebiT gawonasworebuli, gamoTanabrebuli savaluto kursebi. swored aseTi kursebis formirebis proceduraa savaluto kotireba. savaluto kursi SeiZleba iyos sxvadasxva saxis: pirdapiri, Sebrunebuli, kros-kursi, forvarduli, fiuCersuli, myidvelis, gamyidvelis, gacvliTi da sxv. pirdapiri kursi ewodeba mocemuli qveynis savaluto erTeulze sxva qveynis savaluto erTeulebis raodenobriobas, xolo arapirdapiri, Sebrunebuli, ki piriqiT, sxva qveynis savaluto erTeulis gamosaxvaa ama Tu im qveynis valutis raodenobiT. magaliTad, 2010 wlis pirveli ivlisisTvis 1 larze modioda 0,537 aSS dolari (pirdapiri kursi), xolo 1 dolarze - 1,863 lari (Sebrunebuli kursi). kros - kursi or savaluto erTeulTa Soris urTierTSefardebaa, rac gansazRvrulia maTi mesame savaluto erTeulTan SefardebiT. magaliTad, 2010 wlis 1 ivlisisTvis:
135 1 aSS dolari = 1,863 lars, 1 aSS dolari = 28.936 rusul maneTs, 1 rusuli maneTi =
28.936 15.532 lars. 1.863
forvarduli kursi ewodeba arasabirJo garigebidan, saswrafod ori samuSao dRis ganmavlobaSi angariSsworebas. gamyidvelis kursi aris is kursi, romliTac banki hyidis valutas, xolo myidvelis kursi - romliTac banki yidulobs valutas. saerTaSoriso saxelmwifoebriv da biznesmenur saqmianobaSi erTob mniSvnelovania valutis gacvliTi kursi. gacvliTi kursi aris ori sxvadasxva qveynis valutris is raodenoba, romliTac SeiZleba iyido saqonlisa da momsaxurebis erTnairi moculoba. magaliTi. 1 kg. Zroxis xorci = 9,5 lars, 1 kg. Zroxis xorci = 90 maneTs. aqedan cxadia, rom 1 maneTi =
9.5 0.1055 lars. 90
maSasadame, Tu Cveulebrivi kursis mixedviT 1 maneTi 0,0519 lars Seadgens, zemoTmotanili magaliTis mixedviT Zroxis xorcis gacvliTi kursis 1 maneTi = 0,1055 lars. sxvagvarad amas uwodeben valutis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis paritets. saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi msyidvelobiTi unarianobis paritets angariSoben ara mxolod erTi saxis saqonlis, aramed saqonelTa jgufebisa da mTeli sasaqonlo nomenklaturis mixedviT. msyidvelobiTi unarianobis paritetis indeqsi aseTi saxisaa:
I msy.unar.p arit.
qp q p a
a
a
b
136
137 sadac,
qa - aris ,,a~ qveynis saqonlis jgufis an mTeli
sasaqonlo produqciis fizikuri moculoba; pa da pb - Sesabamisad ,,a~ da ,,b~ qveynebis fasebia mocemul periodSi. es sxva araferia Tu ara samomxmareblo fasebis teritoriuli indeqsi. ase angariSoben, magaliTad, kvebis produqtebis moxmarebas fiziologiur normebis mixedviT jer ,,a~ qveynis fasebiT, Semdeg ,,b~ qveynis fasebiT da Sefardeba gvaZlevs msyidvelobiTi unarianobis paritetis indeqss kvebis produqtebis mixedviT. magaliTad, saqarTveloSi 2004 wlamde moqmedebda kvebis produqtebze Semdegi odenobis moxmarebis fiziologiuri normebi (saSualowliuri moxmareba kg-obiT erT sulze). puri da purproduqtebi 115 kartofili 53 bostneuli da baRCeuli 107 xili, kenkra, yurZeni 90 Saqari 40 xorci da xorcis produqtebi 78 rZe da rZis produqtebi 405 kverci (calobiT) 210 aseT normativebs amravleben Sesyidvis anu sabazro fasebze, gamosaxuls jer erovnuli valutiT, Semdeg ki im qveynis valutiT, romlis mimarT undaT daadginon mocemuli qveynis valutis paritetuli kursi da jamSi Rebuloben mocemuli saxis kvebis produqtebis mixedviT sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebulebas. vTqvaT, saqarTvelosa da aSS qveynebis mixedviT davuSvaT, rom qarTul valutaSi (larobiT) aseTi saxis kvebis produqtebze sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebulebam Seadgina 700 lari, xolo aSS dolarobiT - 400 dolari. maSasadame
700 1.75 lari erTi dolaris mimarT. es imas 400
niSnavs, aSS dolari paritetulia 1,75 larisa, xolo 1 lari
400 0.571 dolarisa. 700 aseTi gacvliTi kursiT iwarmoebs savaluto kavSirurTierTobani amerikis SeerTebul Statebsa da saqarTvelos Soris. arsebobs gacvliTi kursis sxvadasxva saxeobani. maT Sorisaa nominaluri savaluto gacvliTi kursi, realuri savaluto gacvliTi kursi, realuri efeqturi gacvliTi kursi da nominaluri efeqturi gacvliTi kursi. nominaluri savaluto gacvliTi kursi araa damokidebuli inflaciur procesebze, xolo danarCeni - asaxavs inflaciuri procesebis zemoqmedebas savaluto gacvliT kursze. nominalur gacvliT kurss sxvagvarad SeiZleba vuwodoT faqtiuri gacvliTi kursi.
ოფიციალური ყოველდღიური გაცვლითი კურსები ვალუტების მიხედვით – წარმოადგენს ეროვნული ბანკის მიერ წინა დღეს დადგენილ კურსებს, რომლებიც მოქმედებაშია მოცემული თარიღისათვის.
რეალური
გაცვლითი კურსები (RExR) გაანგარიშებულია შესაბამისი ნომინალური გაცვლითი კურსების ინდექსების (In) შებრუნებული სიდიდის გამრავლებით საქართველოსა და შესაბამისი პარტნიორი j ქვეყნის სამომხმარებლო ფასების ინდექსების (CPIgeo და CPIj) შეფარდებაზე:
RExR 1
In
CPIgeo CPIj
138
139
რეალური ეფექტური გაცვლითი კურსი – ასახავს ლარის გაცვლითი კურსის ინდექსის ცვლილებას საქართველოსა და მის ძირითად სავაჭრო პარტნიორ ქვეყნებში, სამომხმარებლო ფასების ინდექსებს შორის თანაფარდობის ცვლილების გათვალისწინებით. იგი გაიანგარიშება როგორც საქართველოსა და მის 12 ძირითად სავაჭრო პარტნიორ ქვეყანაში (აზერბაიჯანი, აშშ, გაერთიანებული სამეფო, გერმანია, თურქეთი, იტალია, ნიდერლანდები, რუსეთი, საფრანგეთი, სომხეთი, უკრაინა, შვეიცარია) რეალური გაცვლითი კურსების შეწონილი საშუალო გეომეტრიული:
P REER i 1 Pi 12
სადაც
1 ei
wi
,
ei არის ლარის ნომინალური გაცვლითი კურსი i
პარტნიორი ქვეყნის ვალუტის მიმართ, wi - i ქვეყნის წონა საქართველოს საგარეო სავაჭრო ბრუნვაში, P და Pi სამომხმარებლო ფასების ინდექსი საქართველოში და i პარტნიორ ქვეყანაში. რეალური ეფექტური გაცვლითი კურსის ინდექსის ზრდა ნიშნავს ეროვნული ვალუტის რეალურ გამყარებას და ექსპორტის კონკურენტუნარიანობის დაქვეითებას, ხოლო შემცირება – პირიქით.
ნომინალური ეფექტური გაცვლითი კურსი – წარმოადგენს პარტნიორი ქვეყნების მიმართ (აზერბაიჯანი, აშშ, გაერთიანებული სამეფო, გერმანია, თურქეთი, იტალია, ნიდერლანდები, რუსეთი, საფრანგეთი, სომხეთი, უკრაინა, შვეიცარია) ლარის ნომინალური გაცვლითი კურსის ინდექსების შეწონილ საშუალო გეომეტრიულს:
NEER 1 ei i 1 12
სადაც
wi
,
ei არის ლარის ნომინალური გაცვლითი კურსი i
პარტნიორი ქვეყნის ვალუტის მიმართ, wi - i ქვეყნის წონა საქართველოს საგარეო სავაჭრო ბრუნვაში. ნომინალური ეფექტური magaliTi. saqarTveloSi laris nominalurma kursma 2010 wlis ianvarSi Seadgina 1,8125, anu 1 aSS dolari udrida 1,8125 lars. 2010 wlis ivnisis bolos Seadgina 1,7430. zrdis tempi:
In
1.7430 0.9617 1.8125
anu daiklo (1-0,9617)X100=3.83 procentuli punqtiT. magaliTi. saqarTveloSi nominaluri gacvliTi kursis indeqsma 2010 wlis ivnisis bolos Seadgina 142,1. samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsebma saqarTveloSi 220,3%, amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi 142,2%.
RExR 1
CPIgeo 1 220.3 0.0109023 In CPIj 142.1 142.2
anu 109.02 % es maCvenebeli ianvris TvesTan SedarebiT gaizarda 9.02%-iT. maSasadame, Tu saqarTveloSi laris nominaluri gacvliTi kursi aSS dolaris mimarT Semcirda 3.83%-iT, realuri, piriqiT - gaizarda 9.02%. es gamoiwvia iman, rom inflaciis tempebi ufro maRali iyo saqarTveloSi, vidre amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi.
140
141 Tema 7. mewarmeobis
statistika
saqarTvelos kanoni „mewarmeTa Sesaxeb“ samewarmeo saqmianobas gansazRvravs rogorc marTlzomier da araerTjerad saqmianobas, romelic orientirebulia mogebaze da xorcieldeba damoukideblad da organizebulad. sawarmo aris ekonomikuri erTeuli, romelic awarmoebs saqonels an eweva momsaxurebas, damoukideblad iRebs ekonomikur gadawyvetilebebs sakuTari resursebis ganawilebis Sesaxeb (flobs gadawyvetilebaTa miRebaSi Tavisuflebis gansazRvrul xarisxs). sawarmo axorcielebs erT an ramodenime saqmianobis saxes, erTi an meti adgilmdebareobis mixedviT. praqtikaSi, subieqtTa umravlesoba dakavebulia Sereuli xasiaTis saqmianobiT (erTdroulad axorcielebs erTze met saqmianobis saxes). Sesabamisad ganasxvaveben: ZiriTadi saqmianoba warmoadgens saqmianobas, romelic gamoirCeva konkretuli ekonomikuri subieqtis mier mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis SeqmnaSi udidesi wiliT. amgvarad, ar aris aucilebeli ZiriTadi saqmianobis wilad modiodes ekonomikuri subieqtis mier Seqmnili mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis 50 procenti an meti. damxmare saqmianoba warmoadgens saqmianobis saxeebs, romlebic qmnian pirobebs subieqtis mier ekonomikuri saqmianobebis (ZiriTadi da araZiriTadi) gansaxorcieleblad (sabuRaltro aRricxva, transportireba, Senaxva, yidvebi, reklama, remonti da teqnikuri ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebi gansazRvrulia saqarTvelos erovnul klasifikatorSi `ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebi~ (sek 001-2004), romelic efuZneba ekonomikur saqmianobaTa saxeebis evropul klasifikators NACE (Nomenclature des Activities de Communaute Europeenne) [damtkicebulia 2004 wlis 22 dekembers, saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis ministris brZanebiT].
sawarmo SeiZleba iyos individualuri (fizikuri) an iuridiuli piri. saqarTvelos kanoni „mewarmeTa Sesaxeb“ gansazRvravs sawarmos organizaciul-samarTlebrivi formis Semdeg tipebs: • individualuri sawarmo (fizikuri piri); • solidaruli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba; • komandituri sazogadoeba; • SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba; • saaqcio sazogadoeba; • kooperativi. individualuri sawarmos mflobeli aris fizikuri piri, romelsac aqvs samewarmeo wesiT mowyobili organizacia, mowesrigebuli sakaso da sabuRaltro saqme. samarTlebriv urTierTobebSi igi gamodis Tavisi saxeliT. solidaruli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba aris sazogadoeba, romelSic ramdenime fizikuri piri erToblivad, erTiani safirmo saxelwodebiT eweva samewarmeo saqmianobas da partniorebi sazogadoebis valdebulebebisaTvis kreditorebis winaSe pasuxs ageben rogorc solidaruli movaleebi: uSualod, pirdapir mTel valdebulebebze, SeuzRudavad mTeli Tavisi qonebiT. solidaruli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoebis partniorebi SeiZleba iyvnen mxolod fizikuri pirebi. komandituri sazogadoeba aris sazogadoeba, romelSic ramdenime piri erToblivad, erTiani safirmo saxelwodebiT eweva samewarmeo saqmianobas. amasTan, erTi an ramdenime partnioris (komanditebi) pasuxismgebloba Semoifargleba sazogadoebis kreditorebis winaSe gansazRvruli sagarantio Tanxis gadaxdiT, xolo sxva partniorebis (personalurad pasuxismgebeli partniorebi – komplementarebi) pasuxismgebloba SezRuduli ar aris. komplementarebi SeiZleba iyvnen mxolod fizikuri pirebi. SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba aris sazogadoeba, romlis pasuxismgebloba misi kreditorebis winaSe Semoifargleba mTeli Tavisi qonebiT, xolo partnioris
142 pasuxismgebloba - sawesdebo kapitalSi misi wilis odenobiT. aseTi sazogadoebis dafuZneba SeuZlia erT pirsac. saaqcio sazogadoeba aris sazogadoeba, romelsac aqvs erTi da igive nominaluri Rirebulebis mqone aqciebad dayofili sawesdebo kapitali. sawesdebo kapitali unda Seadgendes sul mcire 15000 lars. kooperativi aris wevrTa SromiT saqmianobaze dafuZnebuli sazogadoeba, romlis mizania wevrTa interesebis dakmayofileba da igi mimarTuli ar aris upiratesad mogebis miRebaze. sawarmoebi zomis mixedviT daiyofa Semdegnairad: msxvili, saSualo da mcire. mcire da saSualo sawarmoebs ganekuTvneba yvela organizaciul-samarTlebrivi formis sawarmo, romelSic dasaqmebulTa saSualo wliuri raodenoba da romlis wliuri brunva ar aRemateba Semdeg zRvrul odenobebs: • mcire sawarmoebisaTvis - 20 dasaqmebulsa da 0.5 milion lars; • saSualo sawarmoebisaTvis - 100 dasaqmebulsa da 1.5 milion lars; • msxvil sawarmoebs ganekuTvneba sawarmo, sadac dasaqmebulTa raodenoba aRemateba 100 kacs da wliuri brunvis moculoba 1.5 milion lars. sawarmoTa zemoT aRniSnuli gradacia moqmedebs 2002 wlidan. iuridiul pir sawarmos miekuTvneba: solidaruli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba, komandituri sazogadoeba, SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba, saaqcio sazogadoeba da kooperativi. ekonomikur saqmianobad iTvleba nebismieri saqmianoba, romelic warimarTeba mogebis, Semosavlis an kompensaciis misaRebad, miuxedavad aseTi saqmianobis Sedegebisa. ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebi gansazRvrulia saqarTvelos erovnuli klasifikatoris mixedviT. brunva aris saangariSi periodSi ekonomikuri saqmianobis maCvenebeli, romelic Seesabameba mocemuli
143 erTeulis mier ganxorcielebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gayidvis moculobas. brunva moicavs yvela gadasaxadsa Tu baJs saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze (garda dRg-isa da brunvasTan pirdapir kavSirSi myofi sxva gadasaxadebisa). masSi CairTveba agreTve yvela xarji (satransporto, SefuTvis da a.S.), romlebic daekisreba myidvels. fasTa daweva, fasdaklebebi Tu fasdaTmobebi, agreTve dabrunebuli taris Rirebuleba SeiZleba gamoiricxos brunvidan (naRdi angariSsworebisas mxolod fasdaklebebis gamoricxviT). brunvaSi ar CairTveba ZiriTadi kapitalis gayidva, agreTve subsidiebi warmoebaze, romlebic miRebulia saxelmwifo organoebidan. produqciis gamoSveba gansazRvravs ekonomikuri erTeulis mier faqtobrivad warmoebuli produqciis raodenobas da realizebuli produqciis moculobas, gadayidvisaTvis SeZenili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, agreTve materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlilebebis CaTvliT. gamoSvebuli produqcia ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad: brunva + kapitalizebuli saqoneli da momsaxureba + usasyidlod gacemuli sakuTari warmoebis mza produqcia + Sromis anazRaureba, romelic gaica dasaqmebul personalze naturaluri saxiT - gadasayidad gankuTvnili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvebi +/- daumTavrebeli warmoebis moculobis cvlileba (+ zrda, kleba) +/- mza produqciis maragebis cvlileba (+ zrda, - kleba) +/- gadasayidad gankuTvnili saqonlis maragebis cvlileba (+ zrda, - kleba) = gamoSvebuli produqcia kapitalizebuli produqcia (sakuTari sargeblobisaTvis warmoebuli produqcia) gulisxmobs im saqonlis Rirebulebas, romelic warmoebulia sakuTari ZalebiT da rCeba mwarmoeblebs sakuTari saboloo moxmarebisa Tu investirebisaTvis.
144 ukanasknelSi moiazreba rogorc ZiriTadi materialuri, ise aramaterialuri aqtivebis (programuli uzrunvelyofis Seqmna da a.S.) warmoebas. sakuTari sargeblobisaTvis Seqmnili produqcia is produqciaa, romelic ar iyideba da misi Rirebuleba Sefasdeba ZiriTadi fasebis mixedviT, romelic arsebobs msgavs produqciaze. Tu es SeuZlebelia, maSin Sefaseba moxdeba warmoebis xarjebis mixedviT. unda aRiniSnos, rom kapitalizebuli saqoneli SeiZleba CarTuli iqnes investiciebSic. damatebuli Rirebuleba ZiriTad fasebSi eyrdnoba gamoSvebul produqcias, romelsac emateba subsidiebi produqtebze, akldeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvebi (garda ucvlelad gadayidvisaTvis SeZenili produqtisa), agreTve akldeba an emateba nedleulis, masalebisa da sxva Sromis sagnebis maragebis cvlileba. aRniSnuli sidide warmoadgens damatebul Rirebulebas, romelic Sefasebulia ekonomikuri erTeulis warmoebiTi saqmianobis sxvadasxva faqtoruli xarjebis Rirebulebis mixedviT. damatebuli Rirebuleba ZiriTad fasebSi ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad: brunva - saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvebi +/- saqonlisa da momsaxurebis maragebis cvlileba + kapitalizebuli produqcia (anu sakuTari sargeblobisaTvis warmoebuli produqcia) + subsidiebi produqtebze .......................... = damatebuli Rirebuleba ZiriTad fasebSi Sualeduri moxmareba ganisazRvreba rogorc im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculoba, romelic moxmarebulia danaxarjebis saxiT warmoebis procesSi. am SemTxvevaSi gamoricxulia ZiriTadi kapitali, romlis moxmareba ganixileba rogorc ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba. saqoneli da momsaxureba warmoebis procesSi SeiZleba iqnes gamoyenebuli an transformirebuli.
145 Sualeduri moxmareba ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad: saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvebi - saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvebi ucvlel mdgomareobaSi gadayidvisaTvis +/- nedleulis da masalebis, sxva Sromis sagnebis maragebis cvlileba .......................... = Sualeduri moxmareba wliuri mogeba an zarali warmoadgens sawarmos saqmianobis buRaltruli balansis Sedegs. igi gvevlineba rogorc warmoebiTi, finansuri da eqstraordinaruli saqmianobebidan miRebuli mogebebis an zaralis jami, romlis gaangariSebisas gaiTvaliswineba gadaxdili gadasaxadebi da RirebulebiTi koreqtirebebi. mTliani mogeba warmoadgens mogebas, romelic miiReba sawarmos saqmianobis Sedegad, moicavs mTlian mogebas warmoebidan da mogebas finansuri operaciebidan. mTliani mogeba warmoadgens sawarmos rentabelobis maCvenebels da gamoiyeneba wliuri mogebis an zaralis gamosavlenad. mTliani mogeba gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad: mTliani mogeba warmoebidan + finansuri Semosavlebi - finansuri xarjebi + sxva Semosavlebi warmoebiTi saqmianobidan - sxva warmoebiTi xarjebi .......................... = mTliani mogeba mTliani mogeba warmoebidan warmoadgens mogebas, romelic miiReba warmoebiTi saqmianobidan Sromis faqtoruli danaxarjebis anazRaurebis Semdeg. Sromis mwarmoebluroba, kapitalis mwarmoebluroba, kapitalaRWurviloba gansazRvraven ama Tu im saqmianobis ekonomikur efeqturobas.
146 Sromis mwarmoebluroba (erT dasaqmebulze) = produqciis gamoSveba / dasaqmebulTa raodenoba. kapitalis mwarmoebluroba = produqciis gamoSveba / ZiriTadi kapitali. kapitalaRWurviloba = ZiriTadi kapitali / dasaqmebulTa raodenoba. ZiriTadi kapitali (fiqsirebuli aqtivebi) ganisazRvreba rogorc warmoebiTi aqtivebi, romlebic mravaljer an xangrZlivad (erT welze meti xnis ganmavlobaSi) gamoiyeneba warmoebis procesSi. ZiriTadi kapitali moicavs ara mxolod mowyobilobebs, manqanebs, nagebobebs, aramed rogorc zrdad aqtivebs, rogoricaa cxovelebi da mcenareebi, romlebic mravaljer da xangrZlivad qmnian produqtebs (xili Tu rZis produqtebi); aseve warmoebaSi gamoyenebul iseT aramaterialur aqtivebs, rogoricaa programuli uzrunvelyofa da mxatvrul nawarmoebTa originalebi. dasaqmebulebad iTvlebian is pirebi, romlebic muSaoben konkretul sawarmoSi (igulisxmeba momuSave mesakuTreebic, regularulad momuSave partniorebic da saojaxo sawarmoTa araanazRaurebadi muSakebic), agreTve is pirebi, romlebic muSaoben am sawarmos gareT, magram miekuTvnebian mas da Sesabamisad anazRaurebasac misgan iReben (e. i. savaWro warmomadgenlebi, momwodeblebi, SekeTebis (saremonto) da saeqsploatacio brigadebi). erTiani saxelmwifo registri aris saqarTveloSi mTavari kompleqsuri registri, romelic identifikaciis erTiani principebis safuZvelze afiqsirebs qveynis teritoriaze sazogadoebrivi an samewarmeo saqmianobiT dakavebul yvela iuridiul da fizikur pirs da Seicavs reglamentirebul cnobebs maT Sesaxeb. monacemebi ZiriTadad efuZvneba adgilobrivi sagadasaxado samsaxurebis monacemebs.
147 mewarmeobis statistikam unda aRweros ekonomikuri saqmianobiT dakavebuli subieqtebi da mogvces maTi saqmianobis statistikuri maCveneblebi. statistikis amocanebi samewarmeo saqmianobis ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis sferoSi mdgomareobs samewarmeo saqmianobis moculobis, struqturis, dinamikisa da movlenebs Soris korelaciur-regresiuli urTierTkavSiris SeswavlaSi. mewarmeoba, biznesi da menejmenti moicavs ekonomikuri saqmianobis TiTqmis yvela sferos. saqarTvelos erovnuli klasifikatori, romelic saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris mieraa SemuSavebuli, ekonomikuri saqmianobis Semdeg ZiriTad seqciebs ganixilavs: saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT, 2010 wlis 1 aprilis mdgomareobiT.
148
149
საქმიანობის სახე
სუბიექტების რაოდენობა
სულ
307628
სოფლის მეურნეობა, ნადირობა და სატყეო მეურნეობა
3896
თევზჭერა, მეთევზეობა
173
სამთომოპოვებითი მრეწველობა
569
დამამუშავებელი მრეწველობა
15061
ელექტროენერგიის, აირისა და წყლის წარმოება და განაწილება
541
მშენებლობა
5761
ვაჭრობა, ავტომობილების, საყოფაცხოვრებო ნაწარმისა და პირადი მოხმარების საგნების რემონტი
235397
სასტუმროები და რესტორნები
4643
ტრანსპორტი და კავშირგაბმულობა
7973
საფინანსო შუამავლობა
1777
ოპერაციები უძრავი ქონებით, იჯარა და მომხმარებლისათვის მომსახურების გაწევა
8309
სახელმწიფო მმართველობა
1989
განათლება
2545
ჯანმრთელობის დაცვა და სოციალური მომსახურება
3328
კომუნალური, სოციალური და პერსონალური მომსახურების გაწევა
15649
სხვა
TiToeuli qvedargebs.
17
seqcia
moicavs
qveseqciebs,
dargebsa
da
ekonomikuri saqmianobis yvela saxis mewarmeoba da Sesabamisi sawarmoebi SeiZleba dajgufdes kapitalis kuTvnilebadobis niSniT. es niSani miuTiTebs Tu vis ekuTvnis mewarmeobis Sesabamisi sawarmoo erTeulis (sawarmos anu damoukidebeli meurne-subieqtis, romelic awarmoebs saqonels, momsaxurebas, asrulebs samuSaoebs, eweva sxvadasxva saxis ekonomikur saqmianobas) sawarmoo kapitali, qoneba, aqtivebi da Semosaval-gasavali. am niSniT gamoiyofa saxelmwifo, municipaluri, koleqtiuri, kerZo da kerZo Sereuli sawarmoebi. saxelmwifo sawarmos sawesdebo kapitalis 50 %-ze meti saxelmwifo sakuTrebaSia, misi xelmZRvaneloba iniSneba saxelmwifo organoebis mier, dafinansebac biujeturi saxsrebidan warmoebs da amitom maT zogjer saxazino sawarmoebsac uwodeben. municipaluri sawarmos (municipaliteti - germanuli munizipaliacet - adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis sistemaSi arCeviTi organo. municipalitets ufleba aqvs SemoiRos adgilobrivi gadasaxadebi da sakuTrebaSi iqonios kanoniT daSvebuli municipaluri qoneba; mTeli kapitali municipaluri sakuTrebaa. koleqtiuri sawarmos qoneba sxvadasxva pirTa koleqtiuri sakuTrebaa. koleqtiuri sawarmoebis tipuri formebia saaqcio sazogadoeba, erToblivi sawarmoebi (sxvadasxva qveynis firmebis erTiani, saerTo sawarmo, romelic Seqmnilia sxvadasxva qveyanaSi ganlagebul organizaciaTa ZalisxmeviT produqciis warmoebis, momsaxurebisa da realizaciis warmarTvis mizniT), korporaciebi, kooperativebi da sxv.
150
kerZo piri aris ekonomikuri subieqti, romlis sawesdebo kapitalis 50 %-ze meti kerZo piris sakuTrebaSia, sawarmoebis qoneba ekuTvnis erT an ramdenime kerZo pirs. misi nairsaxeobaa nebismieri individualuri sawarmo, romlebic kerZo kapitaliT awarmoeben raime saxis Rirebulebas (produqcias an momsaxurebas, ewevian markentingul da sxva saxis saqmianobas), kerZo, ojaxuri mewarmeoba da sxv. kerZo Sereuli aris subieqti, romlis sawesdebo kapitalSi saqarTvelos moqalaqisa da ucxoeli kerZo piris wilobrivi monawileobaa. sabazro ekonomikaze gardamavalma, Seuqcevadma procesebma mniSvnelovani biZgi misca mewarmeobis ganviTarebas saqarTveloSi. oficialuri statistikuri monacemebiT 20032009 wlebSi mniSvnelovnad amaRlda samewarmeo saqmianoba. brunva gaizarda 5523.0 mln laridan 2003 wels, 16475,7 2238,6 mln laramde 2009 wels, anu gaizarda 198.3%-iT, gamoSvebuli produqcia gaizarda 156.5 %-iT, dasaqmebulTa saSualo Tviuri anazRaureba gaizarda 139,4 laridan 564.9 laramde, anu 305.2 %-iT.
151
საკუთრების ფორმების მიხედვით (2010 წლის 1 აპრილის მდგომარეობით) საკუთრების ფორმა
სუბიექტთა რაოდენობა
სულ
307628
კერძო პირები
287646
კერძო პირი-საქართველოს მოქალაქე
282390
უცხოელი კერძო პირი
2777
კერძო შერეული
2479
სახელმწიფო
7776
მუნიციპალიტეტი
1493
საკუთრების სხვა ტიპი
10713
152
153 gamokvlevebi. specialuri gamokvlevebidan farTod gamoiyeneba SerCeviTi dakvirvebani.
ბიზნეს სექტორი 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
5523.0
7248.4
10076.3 13090.3 17544.4 19650.7 16475.7
saqonelwarmoebis dargTa produqcia ბრუნვა, მლნ.ლარი გამოშვებული 3492.6
4374.8
5838.3
7412.6
9645.4
10248.4 8960.1
1773.3
2238.6
2796.8
3479.4
4541.8
5162.6
…
შუალედური მოხმარება, 1719.3 მლნ.ლარი
2136.2
3041.5
3933.1
5103.7
5085.8
…
ფიქსირებული აქტივები, 4364.8 მლნ.ლარი
4942.8
5415.1
6040.5
7935.9
9257.1
…
297795
322779
388946
360987
361209 349250
316553
139.4
161.6
204.5
285.8
381.6
564.9
პროდუქცია, მლნ.ლარი დამატებული ღირებულება, მლნ.ლარი
დასაქმებულთა რაოდენობა, კაცი დასაქმებულთა საშუალო თვიური
519.8
შრომის ანაზღაურება, ლარი
statistikuri informaciis mopovebis miznebisaTvis saqarTveloSi tardeba mewarmeobis rogorc specialuri (erTjeradi, perioduli), ise mimdinare (yovelwliuri)
saqonelwarmoebis dargTa produqcia ewodeba TiToeuli dargis saqmianobis pirdapir da sasargeblo Sedegs. esaa mrewvelobaSi samrewvelo-sawarmoo saqmianobis pirdapiri da sasargeblo Sedegi, soflis meurneobaSi sasoflo-sameurneo sawarmoo saqmianobis pirdapiri da sasargeblo Sedegi, mSeneblobaSi - saamSeneblo-sawarmoo saqmianobis pirdapiri da sasargeblo Sedegi. rogorc Cans TiToeuli dargis produqcia xasiaTdeba sami ZiriTadi niSniT da amitom sxva, ara am dargis profilis saqmianobis Sedegi ar CaiTvleba mocemuli dargis produqciis saerTo moculobaSi. magaliTad, nebismieri organizaciul-samarTlebrivi formis sawarmoSi mxolod samrewvelo-sawarmoo da ara sasoflosameurneo saqmianobis Sedegebi CaiTvleba mrewvelobis dargis produqciad, agreTve, mxolod sasoflo-sameurneo sawarmoo saqmianobis Sedegebi CaiTvleba sasoflo-sameurneo poroduqciad da a.S. TiToeuli dargis produqciaSi CaiTvleba, saqmianobis ara arapirdapiri Sedegebi (narCenebi da sxv.), aramed pirdapiri Sedegebi, agreTve ara wundebuli, anu arasasargeblo produqcia, aramed mxolod vargisi produqcia. aqedan gamomdinare TiToeuli dargis produqciis saerTo moculoba ganisazRvreba ara marto am dargSi, aramed sxva ara am dargis profilis sawarmoTa Sesabamisi Sedegebis SejamebiT. magaliTad, mrewvelobis produqciis RirebulebaSi Seitaneba rogorc TviT mrewvelobis, ise sxva dargebis, agreTve SinameurneobaTa samrewvelo-sawarmoo saqmianobis pirdapiri da sasargeblo Sedegebi, soflis meurneobis produqciaSi - rogorc TviT soflis meurneobaSi, aseve, ara sasoflo-sameurneo dargebSi
154 ganxorcielebuli sasoflo-sameurneo sawarmoo saqmianobis pirdapiri da sasargeblo Sedegebi da a.S. samrewvelo produqciis SemadgenlobaSi aRiricxeba: 1. realizebuli produqciis Rirebuleba; 2. Tavisi ZiriTadi kapitalis kapitaluri remonti da arasamrewvelo dawesebulebaTaTvis (magaliTad, sabavSvo bagabaRebisaTvis, dasasvenebeli saxlebisaTvis) gadacemuli samrewvelo saqoneli; 3. Tavisi muSa-mosamsaxureebisaTvis Sromis asanazRaureblad gadacemuli produqciis Rirebuleba; 4. sxva sawarmoebisaTvis humanitaruli daxmarebisaTvis gadacemuli produqciis Rirebuleba; 5. daumTavrebeli warmoebis, agreTve, mza produqciis naSTebis sxvaoba (mateba+, kleba-). imisaTvis, rom SevadaroT samrewvelo produqciis moculoba danaxarjebs da gavigoT mogeba-zarali, yvela saxis zemoTCamoTvlili produqciis saxeobani (maT Soris samrewvelo xasiaTis samuSaoebi) aRiricxeba moqmed mimdinare fasebSi. amis garda, produqciis fizikuri moculobis dinamikis dasadgenad, gamoiyeneba, agreTve, ucvleli anu Sesadari fasebic. dasavleTis zogierT qveyanaSi, samrewvelo produqciis saerTo moculoba, mxolod damatebuli RirebulebiT ganisazRvreba, rac qveyanaSi iZleva iseTi makroekonomikuri maCveneblis gaangariSebis saSualebas, rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqti. soflis meurneobis produqciis RirebulebaSi aRiricxeba memcenareobisa da mecxoveleobis mza produqtebis Rirebuleba, agreTve, daumTavrebeli warmoebis naSTebis mateba an kleba. es ukanaskneli gaiangariSeba am wlisa da momavali wlis mosavlianobis misaRebad gaweuli samuSaoebis RirebulebaTa sxvaobiT memcenareobaSi, xolo mecxoveleobaSi suladobis mixedviT. rogorc statistikosebi ityobinebia, soflis meurneobis produqciis moculobis gaangariSebis mowinave meTodologiuri
155 gamocdilebis gaziarebis miznebisaTvis sayuradReboa evrokavSiris qveynebis praqtika. am qveynebSi soflis meurneobis produqciis moculobas angariSoben e.w. ,,erovnuli fermis~ meTodiT. am meTodiT qveynis soflis meurneoba ganixileba rogorc erTiani erovnuli ferma da amitom misi produqciis Rirebulebiadan unda gamoiTiSos produqciis fermebs Sorisa da fermis Sida urTierTmiwodebani. aqedan gamomdinare soflis meurneobis produqciaSi unda aRiricxos: 1. savaWro organizaciebisadmi soflis meurneobis mza produqciis miwodebani saboloo moxmarebisaTvis mosaxleobisaTvis misasyidad; 2. sasoflo-sameurneo nedleulis miwodebani samrewvelo sawarmoebisaTvis gadasamuSaveblad; 3. miwodebani eqsportSi; 4. fermebis mier saboloo moxmarebani; 5. daumTavrebeli warmoebisa da mza produqciis naSTebis cvlilebani (zrda+, kleba-). soflis meurneobis damatebuli Rirebulebis gasaangariSeblad evropis rig qveynebSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi saxis sabalanso gaangariSeba: ?? TiToeuli maCveneblis gasaangariSeblad dgeba ekonomikuri angariSebi, romlebic xasiaTdeba sabalanso principiT da sabolood gamoiyeneba qveynis masStabiT soflis meurneobis produqciis moculobis dadgenis miznebisaTvis. mSeneblobis produqciad iTvleba Senobebisa da nagebobebis, agreTve, individualuri saxlebis mSeneblobis iseT samuSaoTa Rirebuleba, rogoricaa samSeneblo-samontaJo, geologiur-saZiebo, saproeqto-saZiebo, miwis sairigaciosamelioracio samuSaoebi, agreTve, Senobebisa da nagebobebis mimdinare da kapitaluri remonti, individualuri binebis mSenebloba da sxv. transportis dargis produqciad iTvleba yvela saxis transportis (saavtomobilo, sarkinigzo, sahaero, sazRvaosamdinaro, samilgayvano da sxv.) mier tvirTis gadazidvisa da
156
157
mgzavrebis gadayvaniT miRebuli Semosavlebi, agreTve, sagzao meurneobaSi gzebis mimdinare da kapitaluri remontis samuSaoTa Rirebuleba. vaWrobis produqciis RirebulebaSi aisaxeba rogorc saSinao, ise sagareo bazrobebis saqonlis yidva-gayidviT miRebuli Semosavlebi. es Semosavlebi warmoiqmneba saqonlis Sesasyid da gasayid fasTa Soris sxvaobiT anu savaWro daTmobiT da sxva araferia Tu ara mimoqcevis xarjebisa da savaWro mogebis jami. momsaxurebis sferos statistika mewarmeoba, biznesi da menejmenti Zalian farTodaa fexmokidebuli momsaxurebis bazarze. ra aris momsaxureba? momsaxureba (inglisuri sityva servise-ganaa warmoSobili) SromiTi saqmianobis iseTi sferoa, romlis drosac ar iqmneba nivTobrivi produqti, aramed warmoiqmneba raime sasargeblo efeqti, riTac kmayofildeba adamianis esa Tu is moTxovnileba. momsaxureba Tanamedrove msoflio statistikis Teoriasa da praqtikaSi miCneulia sawarmoo sferod, romlis ganviTarebis did perspeqtivebze isic metyvelebs, rom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis mTlian Sida produqtSi mas uWiravs 75%, inglisSi 64% da a.S.
momsaxurebis saxeebi momsaxureba sxvadasxva saxisaa. Tanamedrove pirobebSi momsaxurebis Zveli, tradiciuli dargebis (satransporto, safinanso, samedicino, sayofacxovrebo, kavSirgabmulobis, savaWro, religiuri, saeklesio da sxv.) gverdiT swrafad viTardeba axali (sainformacio, kompiuteruli, samecniero, sabirJo da sxv.) dargebi. momsaxureba SeiZleba iyos materialuri da aramaterialuri, sawarmoo da samomxmareblo,
anazRaurebadi da araanazRaurebadi, sabazro da arasabazro da sxva. materialur momsaxurebas ganekuTvneba manqanebis SekeTebani, individualuri samkervalo mewarmeoba, samedicino momsaxureba, samrecxaoebi, qimwmenda da sxva, xolo aramaterialurs - iuridiuli konsultaciebi, saaudito, saganmanaTleblo da sxva saxis momsaxurebani. rogorc materialuri ise aramaterialuri momsaxurebani SeiZleba iyos sawarmoo da arasawarmoo (piradi, samomxmareblo) momsaxureba. sawarmoo momsaxureba, magaliTad, sawarmoTa ZiriTadi kapitalis mimdinare, saSualo da kapitaluri remonti, xolo samomxmarebloa ganaTleba, radio da tele momsaxureba da a.S. saerTaSoriso statistikuri praqtika da gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis rekomendaciebiT sabazro anu (anazRaurebadi) momsaxurebas iseTi saxis momsaxurebas miakuTvneben, romlebic finansirdeba biujetidan an sazogadoebrivi da politikuri organizaciebis mier. rogorc sabazro, ise arasabazro momsaxurebis statistikuri saerTaSoriso klasifikaciebis mixedviT SeiZleba gamovyoT Semdegi saxis segmentebi: sayofacxovrebo, satransporto, kavSirgabmulobis, sabinao-komunaluri, kulturuli, turistul-saeqskursio, fizkulturisa da sportis, samedicino, veterinaluri, sanitarul-ganmajansaRebeli, samarTlebrivi xasiaTis, sabankosafinanso, saganmanaTleblo, savaWro da sxva saxis momsaxurebani. TiToeuli saxis momsaxureba xasiaTdeba sxvadasxva servisiT magaliTad, sabinao-komunaluri momsaxurebis ekonomika da biznesi moicavs daqiravebuli da saarendo sacxovrebliT, Senobebisa da mowyobilobis mimdinare, saSualo, agreTve, kapitaluri SekeTebis, eleqtroenergiiT, gaziT, wyliT, gaTbobiT, sakanalizacio, satelefono, radiosa da teleqseliT
158 momsaxurebis, agreTve, sanitaruli dasufTavebis biznesservisiT uzrunvelyofas. turistul-saeqskursio biznesSi Sedis turistTa ganTavsebis, kvebis, satransporto, sayofacxovrebo, saeqskursio, kulturul-masobrivi sportuli, gamajansaRebeli da sxva servisuli biznes-momsaxureba. am servisul momsaxurebaTa Sesabamisad evrosabWos qveynebSi moqmedebs turistul momsaxurebaTa statistikuri klasifikacia. maT Sorisaa: sastumroebiT momsaxureba, kvebiT momsaxureba, sasmelebis gayidviT momsaxureba, sasadilo da binaze mza sakvebis mitaniT momsaxureba, turistul momsaxurebaTa biuros mier momsaxureba, kulturis, religiis da organizebuli dasvenebis sferoSi administraciuli momsaxureba da sxv. satransporto-kavSirgabmulobis biznes-servisi moicavs yvela saxis satransporto-kavSirgabmulobis transportis (sarkinigzo, saavtomobilo, samilgayvano, sazRvao, samdinaro, sahaero gadayvanis da satvirTo gadazidvebis, agreTve, kavSirgabmulobis) momsaxurebis serviss. am dargis produqcia gaizomeba mgzavr-kilometrobiT da tona-kilometrobiT. gamoiyeneba momsaxurebis tarifebi (fuladi anazRaurebis ganakveTi satransporto momsaxurebis erTeulisaTvis) an fraxtebi (wylis transportiT gadaziduli tvirTis erTeulis anazRaureba). kulturisa da sportis samomsaxureo biznes-servisSi Sedis Teatrebis, kinoTeatrebis, filarmoniebis, muzeumebis, biblioTekebis, samkiTxveloebis, klubebis, kulturis saxlebis, sportuli sanaxaobebis, fizkulturisa da sportulgamajansaRebeli organizaciebis samomsaxureo servisi. sasamarTlo momsaxurebis biznes-servisi moicavs sanotaro, saadvokato, sadamcvelo firmebis samosamsaxureo serviss. sabanko-safinanso biznes-servisSi Sedis rogorc anazRaurebadi, ise araanazRaurebadi operaciebi.
159 anazRaurebadia xelfasis gadaricxvebi, seifebis arendiT momsaxureba, Zvirfas faseulobaTa Senaxva, valutis gacvla, angariSebis gaxsna da warmoeba, sadazRvevo momsaxureba da sxv. araanazRaurebadia sadepozito angariSebis gaxsna, warmoeba da sxv. saaudito momsaxurebis biznes-servisma didi gavrceleba hpova sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi. auditi (laTinuri sityva audio-msmeneli, Zvel sasuliero saswavleblebSi mowinave, maRali akademiuri moswrebis moswavleebs andobdnen sxva moswavleebis gamocdas. isini usmendnen maT da Rebulobdnen informacias Tu rogor aiTvises ganvlili saswavlo masala da Seasrules saTanado davalebani. saWiro SemTxvevaSi aseTi mowinave mowafeebi konsultaciebsac utarebdnen CamorCenil moswavleebs) aris mewarmis, biznesmenis safinanso angariSgebianobis damoukidebeli eqspertiza sameurneo-safinanso operaciebis moqmedi kanonmdeblobisadmi, agreTve, sabuRaltro aRricxvianobis sisrulisa da sizustisadmi Sesabamisobis Sesaxeb. auditi SeiZleba iyos gare (rodesac auditorul mewarmeobas, sawarmoebisa da organizaciebis winaswari dakveTis safuZvelze, anxorcielebs gare auditoruli forma, kompania) da Sida (rodesac auditorul eqspertizas anxorcielebs TviT organizaciis, firmis, kompaniis specialuri funqcionaluri ganyofileba, biuro, samsaxuri, romlebic administraciulad emorCilebian mocemuli dawesebulebis xelmZRvanelobas). saaudito biznes-servisi moicavs sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobis gacnobas, gasinjvas, Sedarebas moqmedi kanonmdeblobisadmi, daskvnas da rekomendaciebs. momsaxurebis raodenobrivi da xarisxobrivi statistikuri maCveneblebi qveyanaSi da mis calkeul regionebSi ganisazRvreba momsaxurebis bazris socialurekonomikuri potencialis (SromiTi, finansuri da materialuri resursebis moculoba, maTi xarisxi da balansireba), moTxovnisa da miwodebis mdgomareobis (moTxovna, miwodeba, maTi urTierTSefardeba, tevadoba da momsaxurebiT
160
161
uzrunvelyofa), realizaciis (moculoba, struqtura, dinamika rogorc mTlianad aseve mosaxleobis erT sulze gaangariSebiT), fasebisa da tarifebis (fasebisa da tarifebis done, struqtura, fasebisa da tarifebis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsebi), infrastruqturis (momsaxurebis sawarmoTa ricxvi, maTi struqtura, sawarmoo simZlavre, teqnikuri aRWurviloba, satransporto, kavSirgabmulobisa da da sxva saSualebebiT uzrunvelyofa), momsaxurebis gawevis ekonomikuri Sedegebis maCveneblebis (realizaciidan amonagebi anu saoperacio Semosavlebi, mogeba, damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi) da efeqturobis (mogeba, resursebis mimarT, danaxarjebis mimarT, rentabeloba da sxv.) da sxva saxis indikatorebi.
marketingis statistika sityva marketingi warmoSobilia inglisuri sityva market-isagan da bazars, gasaRebas niSnavs. amitom marketingi yovelgvari komerciuli saqmianobis nebismier etapze (warmoeba, gacvla, moxmareba) gamoiyeneba da xorcieldeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gasaRebis, gacvlis ganviTarebis, daCqarebis, moTxovnilebis ukeT dakmayofilebisa da saboloo jamSi mogebis miRebis stimulirebisaTvis. marketinguli servisi moicavs bazrebis analizs, moTxovna-miwoebis gansazRvras, bazrebis segmentirebas, fasebis politikas, strategias, reklamas da sxv. bazari sazogadoebis ganviTarebis adreuli safexurebidanve, saqonelwarmoebis ganviTarebasTan erTad, yovelTvis warmoadgenda adamianTa urTierTobis erTerT mniSvnelovan sferos. bazarze upirispirdeboda erTmaneTs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moTxovna-miwodeba. magram bazris Seswavla rogorc ekonomikurad ise statistikurad gansakuTrebul rols sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi iZens. aq
unda movixsenioT bazarTa sxvadasxva saxeobani. maT Soris: saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari, investiciebis bazari, Sromis bazari, fasiani qaRaldebis bazari da sxva. isini mWidro urTierTkavSirSi arian da erTmaneTs ganapirobeben. maTi ganviTarebis zogadi kanonzomierebani moTxovna-miwodebis TvalsazrisiT daaxloebiT erTnairia. amitom aq da SemdgomSic ganixileba mxolod saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistika, romelic ganapirobebs sxva saxis bazrebis statistikur maCvenebelTa sistemasac. bazari aris Tavisufali partniorebis, gamyidvelebisa da myidvelebis yidva-gayidvis urTierTobaTa sistema, rasac ZiriTadad gansazRvravs moTxovna-miwodebis raodenobrivi Tanafardobani. sabazro statistikam unda Seiswavlos bazris tevadoba anu moTxovna-miwodebis moculobani, moTxovnamiwodebis struqtura, dinamika qronologiuri TariRe;bis mixedviT da sxva movlenebTan korelaciur-statistikuri urTierTkavSiri. sabazwro statistikis Seswavlis obieqtia bazari, anu sabazro-ekonomikuri movlenebi da procesebi, xolo sagani - am movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobrivi mxare Tvisebriv mxaresTan mWidro kavSirSi konkretul drosa da sivrceSi. winamdebare naSromSi sabazro statistikaSi ganixileba bazris koniuqturis marketinguli gamokvlevis da sasaqonlo birJis statistika. sityva koniuqtura warmoSobilia laTinuri sityva conjungo-sagan, rac niSnavs SeerTebas. bazris koniuqtura aris bazarze arsebuli situacia, romelsac gansazRvravs moTxovnamiwodebis urTierTSefardebani, maTi ganviTarebis tendenciebi, konkretuli brZolis masStabebi, Zala, komerciuli riskis done da sxva faqtorebi. maSasadame, koniuqtura am faqtorTa urTierTzemoqmedebis SeerTebis saerTo Zalis ganmsazRvreli fenomenia, rac erTob saWiroa sabazro ekonomikis marTvisa da regulirebisaTvis. konuqturis Seswavla aucilebeli pirobaa marketingisa da komerciuli saqmianobis warmarTvisaTvis,
162 agreTve, socialur-ekonomikuri, sagadasaxado da sakanonmdeblo politikis gasatareblad bazris saxelmwifo regulirebis mizniT. bazris koniuqtura xasiaTdeba variaciiT, ciklurobiT, sezonurobiTa da dinamiurobiT. koniuqturis variacias anu cvalebadobas gansazRvravs rogorc mudmivad moqmedi ise SemTxveviTi xasiaTis faqtorebi, maT Soris SeiZleba iyos socialur-ekonomikuri, bunebriv-klimaturi, demografiuli, sazogadoebriv-politikuri, organizaciuli da sxva saxis faqtorebi. koniuqturis ciklurobas ganapirobebs moTxovnis (bazarze wayenebuli moTxovnileba, romelsac gansazRvravs adamianTa fuladi Semosavlebi da aqedan gamomdinare msyidvelobiTi unarianoba) an miwodebis Semcireba an gadideba, Semdeg stabilizacia da isev gadideba an Semcireba. sezonur cvalebadobas gansazRvravs saqonlis damzadebis sezonuroba an sxva msgavsi faqtori. bazari cvalebadia droSi, misi sazRvrebi diddeba an mcirdeba qronologiuri TariRebis mixedviT. aqedan gamomdinare koniuqturis statistikam unda Seiswavlos moTxovna-miwodebis Tanafardobani, koniuqturis cikluroba, sezonuroba, dinamika, konkurenciuli brZolis, komerciuli riskis, agreTve, bazris monopolizaciis xarisxi, bazris regionaluri gansxvavebani, koniuqturis saprognozo parametrebi da sxva. bazarze arsebuli situaciis daxasiaTeba da prognozirebisaTvis gamoiyeneba rogorc sistematuri ise perioduli informaciuli masala. sistematuri xasiaTis masalas iZleva e.w. sasignalo informaciebi, romlebic dRiuri, dekaduri, Tviuri da sxva qronologiuri TariRebis mixedviT moedineba qvemdgomi (samrewvelo, savaWro, samarketingo da sxv.) rgolebidan. es informacia exeba warmoebis, saqonelbrunvisa da sasaqonlo maragebis moculobas, fasebs, finansebs, socialurdemografiul sakiTxebs da sxva saxis masalas.
163 sistematuri xasiaTis masala zogjer ver axasiaTebs CvenTvis saintereso yvela sakiTxs da ar iZleva koniuqturis prognozirebis saSualebas. es ki aucilebelia sabazro ekonomikis marTvisa da organizaciis aqtualuri sakiTxebis gadawyvetisaTvis. amitom saWiro informaciis misaRebad periodulad awarmoeben bazarze momuSave muSakebis, warmoebis dargTa specialistebis, agreTve, mecnier-eqspertebis gamokiTxvas. gamokiTxva warmoebs rogorc anketis meSveobiT, ise intervius saxiT, specialurad Sedgenil kiTxvarebze pasuxebis gacemis gziT. mTavari maCveneblebi, romlebic erTmaneTs upirispirdeba bazarze da gansazRvravs koniuqturas aris moTxovna da miwodeba. momxmarebelTa survili sawonelsa da momsaxurebaze gansazRvravs moTxovnilebas, xolo moTxovnileba fuladi resursebis gaTvaliswinebiT ayalibebs bazarze moTxovnas. miwodebas warmoqmnis warmoebisa da momsaxurebis sferos ganviTareba. moTxovnisa da mowodebis urTierTSefardebiT yalibdeba bazarze saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gansazRvruli, gamawonasworebeli fasebi, romelTa meSveobiT xdeba konkretuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidva da momxmarebelTa dakmayofileba. moTxovna SeiZleba iyos potencialuri an daxuruli (yalibdeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze gamosasvlelad momzadebis stadiaSi), Camoyalibebuli (formirdeba moTxovna-miwodebis urTierTSefardebiT), alternatiuli (yalibdeba momxmareblis mier sxva saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenis survilis gamomJRavnebisas), spontanuri (gamomJRavneba uecrad momxmareblis mier bazarze misTvis sasurveli saqonlis an momsaxurebis saxeobis aRmoCenisas), gadadebuli (rodesac myidveli fuls TandaTanobiT agrovebs ama Tu im moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad), daukmayofilebeli (rodesac bazarze myidveli ver poulobs Sesabamis saqonels) da sxva. TavisTavad moTxovna-miwodebis maCveneblebi SeiZleba
164 iyos moTxovnisa da miwodebis moculoba, struqtura, elastiuroba, dinamika da sxva. koniuqturis maCveneblebs miekuTvneba, agreTve, proporciuloba (moTxovnisa da miwodebis urTierTSefardeba), bazris struqtura (saqonelbrunvis, gamyidvelebisa da myidvelebis, agreTve, regionaluri Wrilisa da sxva maCveneblebis mixedviT), komerciuli riski (sainvesticio riski, marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa miRebis riski da sxv.), koniuqturis cvalebadoba (variaciis maCveneblebi), saqmiani aqtiuroba (dakveTebis portfeli, garigebaTa raodenoba da dinamika da a.S.). es maCveneblebi gansazRvravs bazarze situacias da amiT iZleva Sesabamis marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa miRebis saSualebas. sabazro situaciis koniuqturuli Sefasebani warmoebs xarisxobrivi da atributuli, agreTve, raodenobrivi maCveneblebiT. bazarze situacia an keTilmyofeli anu maRali koniuqturis an kidev arakeTilmyofeli anu dabali konuqturis SeiZleba iyos. maRali koniuqturuli situaciis niSnebia: balansirebuli moTxovna-miwodeba, gawonasworebuli fasebi, stabiluri an mzardi realizacia da a.S. dabali koniuqturis niSnebia: bazris disproporcia, moTxovnis mkveTri Semcireba, saqonlis deficiti, fasebis cvalebadoba, maragebis gaumarTlebeli zrda da a.S. xSirad situacias bazarze axasiaTebs sami saxis indikatori: saqonelbrunvis, fasebisa da maragebis indeqsebi. am indikatorebis cvlilebas ganixilaven qronologiuri TariRebis dinamikaSi. cnobili dinamikuri mwkrivebis damuSavebis analizuri xerxebis gamoyenebiT daadgenen indikatorebis ganviTarebis tendenciebs. aq rogorc cnobilia, SeiZleba gvqondes sami SemTxveva: indikatoris zrdis tendencia, klebis tendencia an stabiluri mdgomareoba. Cvens magaliTze anu motanili sami indikatoris gamoyenebiT maRali koniuqturis maCveneblebia saqonelbrunvis gadideba, fasebisa da maragebis
165 Semcireba. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi saqme gvaqvs dabali koniuqturis SemTxvevasTan bazarze. dabali koniuqturis Sesacvlelad saWiroa Sesabamis marketingul RonisZiebaTa gatareba. TiToeuli marketinguli gadawyvetileba garkveuli riskis tolfasia, ris gamo pirvel rigSi unda Sefasdes riski. riskis Sefaseba damokidebulia misi saxeobisagan: dabandebuli kapitalis nawilobrivi an mTlianad dakargvis, gakotrebis, kreditis dakargvis, inflaciis, konkurentis mier bazridan gamodevnis da sxva saxeobis riski. riskis Sefasebis yvelaze gavrcelebuli meTodia saeqsporto meTodi, rac TavisTavad eyrdnoba koniuqturis Sefasebis mdidar statistikur masalas. sabazro statistikis Seswavlis erTerTi mniSvnelovani sakiTxia moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastiurobis anu cvalebadobis raodenobrivi Seswavla. am cvalebadobas raodenobrivad gamosaxaven elastiurobis koeficientiT. elsatiurobis koeficienti zogadad gviCvenebs saSedego faqtoris procentul cvalebadobas faqtoruli niSnis erTi procentis cvalebadobisas.. Tu elastiurobis koeficienti erTze metia, maSin saqme gvaqvs pirdapir kavSirTan da Tanac ultra anu Zlier elastiurobasTan. aseTi kavSiri SeiZleba gamovlindes moTxovnisa da fuladi Semosavlebis urTierTkavSiris analizis pirobebSi. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu erTis toli an erTze naklebia elastiurobis koeficienti, maSin saqme gvaqvs mcire anu infra elastiurobasTan (unitaruli moTxovna). Tu faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas moTxovna mcirdeba (magaliTad, fasebis cvalebadobasTan urTierTkavSirSi), maSin saqme gvaqvs Sebrunebul anu ukukavSirTan. me-19 saukunis 80-ian wlebSi germanelma ekonomistma da sociologma e. engelma daadgina, rom ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad mcirdeba kvebis produqtebze danaxarjebis xvedriTi wili (da ara absoluturad) da diddeba fufunebis sagnebze danaxarjebis xvedriTi wili. es kanoni atarebs engelis kanonis
166 saxelwodebas da farTod gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis saojaxo biujetur gamokvlevebSi. bazarze moTxovnis elastiurobis ufro dawvrilebiTi daxasiaTebisaTvis didi mniSvneloba aqvs saqonelisa da momsaxurebis urTierTSemcvlelobis faqtorTa gaTvaliswinebas. fasebis gadidebisas moTxovna ufro metad mcirdeba maRali xarisxisa da metad ZviradRirebul saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze. magaliTad, purze fasebis momatebisas Tavs iCens jifenis paradoqsi: rac ufro Zvirdeba puri, miT metad yidulobs mas momxmarebeli. magram puris moxmarebis struqturaSi mcirdeba maRali xarisxisa da ZviradRirebuli puris moxmareba da diddeba dabali xarisxis da SedarebiT naklebfasiani puris moxmareba. aq gamovlindeba nivTis sargeblianobis xarisxi: maRali xarisxis saqonlis SedarebiT naklebi raodenobaa saWiro adamianis moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad da amitom misi Semcvleli xarisxis saqonlis meti masa esaWiroeba momxmarebels ama Tu im saWiroebisaTvis. bazarze moTxovnis Seswavlisas vlindeba, agreTve, veblenis paradoqsi, rac imaSi mdgomareobs, rom fufunebis sagnebs momxmareblebi iZenen ara imdenad maTi samomxmareblo TvisebebisaTvis, ramdenadac socialuri daniSnulebisaTvis (prestiJuloba, moda da a.S.). amitom zogjer jifenis paradoqss ewodeba - siRaribis efeqti, xolo vebleris paradoqss - simdidris. elastiurobis zemoTmotanili Teoriuli koeficientis formuliT SeiZleba davadginoT moxmarebis mgrZnobianobis xarisxi maszed moqmedi romelime faqtoris cvalebadobis mimarT mosaxleobis calkeuli jgufebis mixedviT. aseTi jgufebi SeiZleba gamoiyos ojaxis erT sulze Semosavlis mixedviT. magaliTad, ojaxis raodenoba, romelTagan TiToeul ojaxis wevrs TveSi aqvs Semosavali 50-dan 100-laramde da a.S. bazari Tavisi bunebiT stiqiuri xasiaTisaa, rasac zogjer kapitalis koncentraciisa da saqonlis masis gadidebis kvalobaze Tan sdevs stagnaciisa da sazogadoebisaTvis sxva,
167 metad arasasurveli movlenebi. amitom, Tavidanve, mowinave maRalganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis mqone qveynebSi, mecnierebis winaSe daiasaxa sabazro procesebis ganviTarebis, prognozirebisa da regulirebis gadaudebeli amocanebi. am amocanebis gadawyvetas emsaxureba sabazro ekonomikis Tanmdevi mecnieruli codnis dargi - marketingi. marketingi nebismieri moTxovna-miwodebis Seswavlis gziT miznad isaxavs bazris marTvisa da regulirebis sistemis SemuSavebas, xolo marketinguli gamokvleva, rogorc misi erTerTi Semadgenli nawili - bazris ganviTarebis winaswarSecnobas da am safuZvelze prognozirebas gulisxmobs. marketinguli gamokvlevis ZiriTadi etapebia sakiTxis ekonomikuri dasma, informaciis mopoveba, informaciis damuSaveba da analizi, prognozireba da rekomendaciebis SemuSaveba. sakiTxis ekonomikuri dasma bazris marTvisa da regulirebis amocanebis gansazRvras gulisxmobs, rasac unda mohyves marketinguli informaciis - cifrebis, faqtebis, cnobebisa da sxva saanalizo da saprognozo monacemebis Segroveba. rogorc Cans marketinguli gamokvlevis yvela etapze statistikas, rogorc socialur-ekonomikuri Semecnebis mZlavr iaraRs, gansakuTrebuli roli da niSvneloba eniWeba. mis amocanebSia: bazarze moTxovna-miwodebis, konkurenciuli brZolisa da sxvaTa Sesaxeb utyuari, saimedo, mecnieruli informaciis Segroveba, informaciis damuSaveba da analizi. Sesabamisi mecnieruli, statistikuri meTodebiT, konkurenciuli brZolis, agreTve bazris ganviTarebis parametrebis mecnieruli winaswarxedva da Sesabamisi sarekomendacio prognozebis SemuSaveba. sabazro procesebis regulirebisaTvis saWiro cifrebi, faqtebi, monacemebi unda Segrovdes saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, miwodebis, moTxovnis, realizaciis, fasebis, konkurenciis Sesaxeb. am informaciis matarebeli anu wyaroebia momxmareblebi (individualuri, koleqtiuri), mosaxleoba, firmebi, sawarmoebi, organizaciebi da dawesebulebebi. am monacemebis mopovebisaTvis
168 SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas marketinguli samsaxurebi da misi calkeuli qveganyofilebani an kidev komerciul sawyisebze Seqmnili specialuri marketinguli firmebi. es ukanasknelni valdebulni arian saTanado anazRaurebiT moipovon marketinguli informacia, gadaamuSaon, gaukeTon mas saTanado mecnieruli analizi da Sesabamisi rekomendaciebi warudginon damkveTs maTi qcevisa da momavalSi gasatarebel marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa Sesaxeb. mowinave qveynebSi (magaliTad, safrangeTSi da sxv.) saqonlis momxmareblebsa da mwarmoeblebs Soris informaciis urTierTgacvla gaTvaliswinebulia Sesabamisi kontraqtebiTa da sakanonmdeblo aqtebiT. am SemTxvevaSi mwarmoebeli Tavis Tavze iRebs, miawodos momxmareblebs informacia produqciis warmoebisa da moxmarebis, agreTve, sakuTari informacia bazris Sesaxeb (bazris tevadoba mTlianad calkeuli segmentebis mixedviT, momxmareblis anketirebis monacemebi, bazris koniuqturuli Sefasebani), demografiuli maxasiaTeblebi, monacemebi konkurent-mwarmoebelTa da maTi qmedebis Sesaxeb, sruli informacia SeTavazebul saqonelze (serTifikaciisa da testirebis monacemebi, konkurentunarianoba da a.S.). momxmareblebi, Tavis mxriv, valdebulni arian miawodon mwarmoeblebs informacia sacalo momxmareblebis (klienturis), materialur-teqnikuri bazis (sasawyobo meurneobis, satransporto qselis da sxv.), momxmarebelTa Sexedulebebis, qcevis, reklamis, efeqturobis, adgilobrivi bazris tevadobisa da sxvaTa Sesaxeb. xSirad araoficialuri monacemebis mosapoveblad ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi mimarTaven e.w. marketinguli dazvervis gamoyenebas, rac uzrunvelyofs konfidencialuri da naxevrad konfidencialuri informaciis mopovebas da gadamuSavebas. msxvil marketingul firmebsa da samecniero-kvleviT organizaciebs, agreTve, saxelmwifo statistikis organoebs gaaCniaT SerCeviTi dakvirvebis gziT miRebuli informaciis saSualebani (panelebi). magaliTad, saxelmwifo statistikis
169 paneli moicavs 60,0 aTas SerCeviT ojaxs, romlebsac evalebaT sistematurad miawodon informacia statistikis organoebs sakuTar biujetze (wliur Semosavlebsa da gasavlebze) da yvela im sakiTxze, rasac moicavs programa. gamoiyeneba, agreTve, savaWro korespondentebi, romlebic ganlagebulni arian sayrden punqtebSi da sistematurad awvdian bazris Sesaxeb informacias savaWro firmebs. marketinguli informaciis mopovebisa da SegrovebisaTvis farTod gamoiyeneba gamokiTxvebi, romlebic SeiZleba iyos zepiri da werilobiTi. gamokiTxvis obieqtia individualuri momxmareblebi an msxvili savaWro firmebi. xSirad gamosakiTx pirs (respodents) saubars utareben teqstirebis anu urTierTgamomricxav kiTxvebze pasuxebis lmixedviT. gamokiTxvisaTvis xSirad iyeneben anketebs, romlebic moicavs gamokiTxvis miznebsa da amocanebs, respodentis anu gamosakiTxavi piris Sesaxeb saWiro cnobebs, saprogramo kiTxvarebis CamonaTvals bazris Sesaxeb, romlebsac unda gaeces pasuxebi da a.S. gamokiTxvis erTerTi gavrcelebuli saxeobaa saeqsperto gamokvleva, romelSic monawileobs kvalificiuri, didi codnisa da gamocdilebis mqone specialistebi. maTi pasuxebis ganzogadeba iZleva bazris marTvisa da regulirebis metad saWiro da saimedo, sarekomendacio masalas. am saqmeSi did gamoyenebas poulobs saeqsperto SefasebaTa delfis meTodi, tvinis Setevis meTodi da sxva, romlebsac warmatebiT iyeneben bazris ganviTarebis prognozirebis saqmeSi. mopovebuli informaciis damuSavebis, dajgufebis, Tavmoyrisa da saanalizo maCveneblebis gaangariSebis Sedegad iqmneba sami marketinguli banki: informaciis banki, romelic formdeba cxrilebis, disketebis, magnituri lentebisa da sxvaTa saxiT, rac warmoadgens sistematizebuli informaciis Senaxvisa da gamoyenebis saSualebas: statistikuri banki monacemebis Tavmoyrisa da dajgufebis, agreTve analizis statistikuri meTodebis erToblioba; modelebis banki -
170 marketinguli modelebis erToblioba, romlebic iZleva optimaluri gadawyvetilebis miRebis saSualebas. es masalebi saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas bazris regulirebisa da marTvis saqmeSi. marketinguli gamokvleva farTo speqtris praqtikuli da samecniero xasiaTis samuSaoebs moicavs. amitom mis safuZvlad gamoyenebulia sxvadasxva saxis mecnieruli gamokvlevani rogorc raodenobrivi, formaluri (avtorebi: f. kotleri, d. koksi, r. bazeli, f. bikekeri, p. maslovi da sxv.), ise araformaluri (avtori k. simmondsi da sxv.) analizis meTodebi. marketpnguli gamokvlevis meTodologiaSi farTo adgils iWers statistikuri dakvirvebis, dajgufebis, Tavmoyris, saSualoebisa da dispersiuli analizis, dinamikuri mwkrivebis, saindeqso, SerCeviTi dakvirvebis, korelaciur-regresiuli da sxva saxis meTodebi. statistikuri Sefasebis gamoyenebis gareSe warmoudgenelia optimalur, marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa miReba da mis safuZvelze bazris marTva da regulireba. mniSvnelovan gamoyenebas poulobs, agreTve, wrfivi da arawrfivi programirebis, TamaSTa Teoriis, stoxasturi programirebis, masobrivi momsaxurebis, imitaciuri modelirebis da sxva meTodebi. maSasadame, marketingul gamokvlevaSi gamoiyeneba yvela is meTodi, romelic uzrunvelyofs gadawyvetilebaTa mecnierulobas (mecnierulad dasabuTebuli masalis uzrunvelyofa), kompleqsurobas (bazris muSaobis yvela aspeqtis gamokvleva), sistemurobas (moqmedebaTa logikuri Tanmimdevroba), operatiulobas (Tavisdroul gadawyvetilebaTa miRebas), perspeqtiulobas (dasabuTebuli, saimedo prognozebis miReba), efeqturobas (naklebi danaxarjebis maRali saSedego maCveneblebis miReba). marketinguli strategia principul, prioritetul da sabazro gadawyvetilebaTa kompleqsia, rac ganapirobebs savaWro firmis bazarze xvedriTi wilis zrdas, saqonlisa da
171 momsaxurebis gadidebas, axali saqonlis warmoebasa da bazarze gatanas, mogebis gadidebas da sxv. savaWro firmis strategia bazarze SeiZleba iyos SeteviTi, TavdacviTi da ukandaxeviTi. strategia ganisazRvreba bazarze Zlieri, TavdacviTi - saSualo, xolo ukandaxeviTi araxelsayreli, susti poziciebiT. amasTan savaWro firmis pozicias gansazRvravs ori jgufis faqtorebi: sabazro da sakuTar SesaZleblobaTa faqtori: bazris situacia da sakuTar SesaZleblobaTa faqtorebi. bazris situacias gansazRvravs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saerTo moculobis zrdis teompebi, sasaqonlo maragebi, fasebis cvalebadoba, konkurenciis intensiuroba, bazris tevadoba, mogebis saSualo norma da sxva. sakuTar SesaZleblobebs - firmis xvedriTi wili bazarze, saqonlis konkurentunarianobis done, firmis safinansosakredito potenciali, firmis imiji da a.S. SesaZlebelia am faqtorebis mixedviT ganisazRvros mravalganzomilebiani saSualo bali calcalke rogorc bazris situaciisaTvis, aseve savaWro firmis sakuTari SesaZleblobebis, anu konkurentunarianobisaTvis. amisaTvis saeqsperto wesiT TiToeul faqtors mianiWeben misi moqmedebis siZlieris mixedviT balur Sefasebas, xolo im rolis mixedviT, rasac is imsaxurebs faqtorTa kompleqsSi - rangis mniSvnelobas. faqtorTa TiToeuli kompleqsisaTvis ganisazRvreba saSualo bali saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikulis gamoyenebiT. am reitingis (Tu aseT saSualo balebs gamoviangariSebT calcalke faqtorTa TiToeuli jgufisaTvis, maSin maTi saSualo geometriuli daaxasiaTebs savaWro firmis reitings) mixedviT (maRali, saSualo da dabali) savaWro firmas SeuZlia ganaxorcielos Sesabamisad SeteviTi, TavdacviTi an ukandaxeviTi strategia, rac erTob saWiroa gakotrebis Tavidan acilebisa da mdgomareobis gajansaRebis miznebisaTvis. rogorc Cans TavdacviTi strategia firmas SeuZlia airCios or SemTxvevaSi (orive SemTxvevaSi pozicia saSualoa): sabazro situacia xelsayrelia, magram firmis konkurentunarianoba
172
173
dabalia an piriqiT - sabazro situacia araxelsayrelia, magram firmis konkurentunarianoba maRalia. bunebrivia, rom savaWro firmis mier gatarebuli marketinguli gadawyvetilebani SeteviTi strategiis dros iqneba dabali, Tavdacvis dros saSualo, xolo ukandaxeviTi strategiis dros - maRali riskis matarebeli. xSirad statistika bazarze savaWro firmis reitingis dadgenis gaangariSebaTa rTul kompleqss amartivebs da mimarTavs mxolod firmis xvedriTi wilis gaangariSebas. Tu bazarze yvela firmis mier realizebuli saqonlis saerTo masaSi izrdeba mocemuli savaWro firmis xvedriTi wili, maSin firmis xelmZRvaneloba mimarTavs SeteviT strategias. Tavis dazRvevis mizniT, amasTan erTad, aumjobesebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis dizainur (nakeTobis esTetikur ier-saxes), stailingur (stilisa da modisadmi Sesabamisobis xarisxi) da ergonomikur (produqciis gamoyenebisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebisas komfortuloba da siamovneba) Tvisebebs. savaWro firmebis marketinguli strategiis SemuSavebis saqmeSi statistika iTvaliswinebs, agreTve, saqonlis moTxovnisadmi simwifis fazas. rogorc cnobilia saqoneli da momsaxureba sul xuT fazas gaivlis: Seqmna, bazarze gatana, zrda, simwife da dacema. am fazebis mixedviT statistika agebs mrudebs (abscisTa RerZze gadizomeba fazebi xangrZlivobaTa mixedviT da ordinatTa RerZze saqonlisa da momsaxurebis realizaciis moculoba) da mis safuZvelze iZleva marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa rekomendaciebs.
sasaqonlo birJis statistika sabazro statistikis erTerTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia sasaqonlo birJis statistika. sasaqonlo birJa sabazro ekonomikis ganviTarebis erTerTi mniSvnelovani institutia. is aris iuridiulad da
organizaciulad gaformebuli, mudmivmoqmedi, saqonlis biTumad gacvlis garigebaTa bazari, romlis elementebia saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moTxovna-miwodebis,f asebis, komerciul garigebaTa maRalorganizebuli regulireba. sasaqonlo birJa SeiZleba iyos specializebuli romelime saxeobis saqonlis (xorblis, navTobproduqtebis, Saqris, kauCukis, Savi da feradi liTonebis, xe-tyis masalebis da a.S.) da universaluri, sxvadasxva saqonlis yidva-gayidvis garigebaTa sfero. sasaqonlo birJaze sabiTumo garigebani SeiZleba iyos realuri saqonliT, forvarduli, fiuCersuli, opcionuri, xejirebuli da spredinguli. realuri saqonlis garigeba gulisxmobs, rom birJas gaaCnia sasawyobo Senobebi, sadac arsebul realur saqonelze xdeba sabiTumo garigebani. am saxis garigebisagan gansxvavebiT forvarduli garigeba marTalia realur saqonelze warmoebs, magram gadaxdis ganvadebas gulisxmobs garigebis momentSi arsebuli fasebiT. aseTi garigeba fasebis Semcireba an gadidebazea navaraudevi (gamyidveli fiqrobs, rom fasebi mcirdeba da myidveli ki piriqiT). zemoTCamoTvlili garigebebisagan gansxvavebiT fiuCersuli garigebisas araa aucilebeli mocemul momentSi realuri saqonlis arseboba. is qaRaldze garigebas gulisxmobs sakontraqto wesiT, riTac dafiqsirdeba garkveuli vadis gasvlis Semdeg Sesabamisi nomenklaturisa da asortimentis saqonlis miwodebis aucilebloba. zemoTCaTmoTvlili garigebani warmoSobs sabirJo spekulaciis or sxvadasxva variants: sakaso da vadian garigebas. pirvel SemTxvevaSi pirJis muSakni yiduloben saqonels fasebis gadidebis imediT da fasTa sxvaobiT moelis mogebas, xolo vadiani garigebisas (romlis erTerTi saxeoba fiuCersuli garigebaa) kontraqti daideba iseT saqonelze, romelzedac birJis muSakni fasebis Semcirebas moelian. xejirebuli garigeba igive fiuCersuli garigebaa, mxolod im gansxvavebiT, rom xdeba fasebis mosalodneli cvlilebis winaswardazRveva. Cveulebrivad, imisaTvis, rom
174 saqonlis gamyidvelma daizRvios Tavi da SeinarCunos momavalSi sakaso fasi, SeiZens fiuCersul kontraqts saqonlis gayidvaze. Tu vadiani da sakaso fasebi icvleba erTi mimarTulebiT da gansxvaveba maT Soris, e.i. bazisi, ar icvleba, maSin xejireba iqneba idealuri, radgan gamyidveli arc igebs da arc agebs. imave saqonlis Sesyidvaze myidveli SeiZens saqonlis Sesyidvis fiuCersul kontraqts xejirebis mizniT. opcionuri garigeba ewodeba iseT garigebas, rodesac erTi pirovneba SeuTanxmdeba meores da garkveul periodSi iZens am saqonlis Sesyidvis uflebas fiqsirebuli fasiT. risTvisac meore pirovnebas uxdis premiis garkveul Tanxas. spredinguli garigeba garigebis specifikuri formaa da gulisxmobs sxvadasxva fiqsirebuli garigebisaTvis raime mogebis miRebas. statistikuri amocanebia Seiswavlos sabirJo moTxovnamiwodebis moculoba, struqtura, dinamika, sxva movlenebTan urTierTkavSiri, sabirJo koniuqtura da misi cvlilebani faqtorTa zemoqmedebiT, garigebaTa raodenoba, maTi struqtura saxeobaTa mixedviT, dinamika da sxva sakiTxebi. sabirJo statistikis maCveneblebi uSualod gamomdinareobs amocanebidan da moicavs: birJebis saerTo raodenobas, maT struqturas saxeobaTa mixedviT da dinamikas, sabirJo saqonelbrunvis saerTo moculobas, saqonelbrunvis struqturas, dinamikas saqonelbrunvaze moqmedi faqtorebis raodenobriv, korelaciur-regresiul analizs, fasebis dones, dinamikas da urTierTkavSirs moTxovna-miwodebasTan, fasebis kotirebas, garigebaTa raodenobas, maT struqturas da am safuZvelze saqmian aqtivobas, sabirJo operaciebis warmoebiT birJebis ekonomikuri efeqtianobis maCveneblebs, maT Soris mogebas, saerTo Semosavals, gadasaxadebs biujetSi da sxva maCveneblebs. sasaqonlo birJis saqmianobas asaxavs saqmiani aqtiuroba, romlis maCveneblebia ganacxadTa ricxvi, ganacxadTa saSualo sidide, sabiTumo saqonelbrunva, sabirJo fasebi da sxva. am
175 maCvenebelTa mixedviT aigeba rogorc naturaluri, ise RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi da Sesabamisad naturaluri da RirebulebiTi, individualuri da saerTo (agregatuli) indeqsebi da a.S. naturaluri indeqsebi gamoiyeneba calkeuli saxis saqonlis (Saqari, xorbali, Tevzi da sxv.) fizikuri moculobis dinamikis gasazomavad saangariSo periodSi sabaziso periodTan SedarebiT, xolo sxvadasxva saxis saqonlis birJaze yidvis an gayidvis saerTo moculobis dinamikis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba RirebulebiTi indeqsebi, romlebic miiReba sxvadasxva saqonlis Sesabamis fasobriv gamosaxulebaSi gamosaxvis gziT. sabirJo saqmitanobis saqonelbrunvis, fasebis (rogorc individualuri, ise saerTo), agreTve saSualo Sewonili, saSualo ariTmetikuli, saSualo harmoniuli da sxva saxis indeqsebi gaiangariSeba im meTodologiiT, rac naCvenebi iyo indeqsebis Sesabamis TavSi. sabirJo saqmianobis situacias anu koniuqturas axasiaTebs moTxovna-miwodebis, fasebis, garigebaTa da sxva maCveneblebis cvalebadobani drosa da sivrceSi. maT Sesaswavlad farTod gamoiyeneba variaciis, saindeqso, korelaciiT, SerCeviTi dakvirvebis da sxva saxis meTodebi. saqonelbrunvis statistikis maCveneblebi da maTi daxasiaTeba saqonelbrunva savaWro samewarmeo saqmianobis erTerTi ZiriTadi statistikuri indikatoria. erTimeorisagan ansxvaveben ori saxis saqonelbrunvas: sabiTumos da sacalos. sabiTumo saqonelbrunva ewodeba savaWro organizaciebis mier saqonlis Sesyidvas Semdgomi gayivdis mizniT. mas ekuTvnis, agreTve sawarmoebisa da sxva sabiujeto organizaciebisadmi saqonlis miyidva. sacalo vaWroba ewodeba saqonlis miyidvas uSualod mosaxleobisadmi. sabiTumo da sacalo saqonelbrunvis jams ewodeba saerTo saqonelbrunva. es maCvenebeli pirobiTia, vinaidan
176 moicavs ganmeorebiT aRricxvas. amitom angariSoben ufro realur maCvenebels, romelsac ewodeba wminda saqonelbrunva. mTeli qveynis masStabiT wminda saqonelbrunva emTxveava sacalo saqonelbrunvas, xolo calkeuli regionebis da savaWro organizaciebis mixedviT is amasTan erTad moicavs saqonlis gayidvas regionisa da organizaciis farglebs gareT. saqonelbrunvis erTerTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia rgoladobis koeficienti, romelic gaiangariSeba saerTo saqonelbrunvisa da wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobaTa urTierTSefardebiT. igi gviCvenebs, Tu ramdenrgoliania sasaqonlo mimoqceva. amasTan dakavSirebiT icvleba mimoqcevis xarjebis moculobac. magaliTad, orrgoliani sistemis dros gvaqvs sasawyobo sabiTumo saqonelbrunva, rodesac saqoneli jer Sedis sabiTumo organizaciebis sawyobebSi da Semdeg gadaecema sacalo qsels, xolo erTrgoliania - satranzito sabiTumo saqonelbrunva, roca saqoneli mwarmoeblidan pirdapir egzavneba sacalo qselis savaWro organizaciebs mosaxleobaSi sarealizaciod. saqonelbrunva icvleba socialur-ekonomikuri, demografiuli, savaWro-organizaciuli da sxva faqtorebis gavleniT. misi Seswavla statistikis erTerTi ZiriTadi amocanaa. saqonelbrunvis saerTo moculoba calkeuli saqonlis gayidvaTa jamia. misi sidide gansakuTrebiT mosaxleobis erT sulze gaangariSebiT, mosaxleobis materialuri da kulturuli cxovrebis donis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia da amitomac mis dinamikaSi, wlebis mixedviT Seswavlas didi mniSvneloba aqvs. es amocana wydeba saqonelbrunvis dinamikuri mwkrivebis Sedgenisa da maTi korelaciur-regresiuli analizis meSveobiT. saqonelbrunvis dinamikis Seswavla xdeba indeqsebis gamoyenebiT. cnobilia saqonelbrunvis saerTo da fizikuri moculobis indeqsebi, isini gamoiyeneba im SemTxvevaSi, roca cnobilia saqonlis realizacia calkeuli jgufebisa da
177 dasaxelebis mixedviT. magram xSirad, gansakuTrebiT arasasursaTo saqonlis sacalo vaWrobaSi, cnobilia gayidvaTa raodenoba ara calkeuli nomenklaturuli poziciebis mixedviT, aramed fulad formaSi. amitom am SemTxvevaSi saqonelbrunvis dinamikis gasazomad viyenebT saqonelbrunvis fizikuri moculobis indeqsis sxva formas, kerZod:
1
I
i
q1 p1
p
q p 1
sadac,
1
i p - fasebis jgufuri an individualuri indeqsi;
q1 p1 - calkeuli jgufis saqonlis gayidvaTa raodenoba fuladi formiT saangariSo periiodSi. sasaqonlo maragebis statistikis maCveneblebi sasaqonlo maragebi vaWrobaSi saWiroa sasaqonlo mimoqcevis uwyveti msvlelobisaTvis. gamoiyofa mimdinare, sadazRvevo, sezonuri maragebi. amasTan ZiriTadia mimdinare maragi, romelic saWiroa yoveldRiuri saWiroebisaTvis, sezonuri maragi iqmneba xilze, kartofilze da sxva saxis produqtze mosaxleobis momaragebisaTvis mTeli sezonis ganmavlobaSi. miwodebis vadebis darRvevis, agreTve navigaciis sezonurobis da sxva faqtorebis gavleniT zogjer Semoizideba e.w. sadazRvevo maragi. es maragebi cal-calke ki ar inaxeba, aramed erTad aris savaWro organizaciebSi da qmnian sasaqonlo maragebs. mimdinare maragebis moculoba damokidebulia saqonlis realizaciis moculobaze. rac metia realizacia, miT metia saWiro sasaqonlo maragebi. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saqonelbrunva unda iyos uzrunvelyofili sasaqonlo
178
179
maragebiT. xSirad es uzrunvelyofadoba gaiangariSeba dReebSi, romlis normativebic arsebobs. igi dgindeba ama Tu im TariRisaTvis sasaqonlo maragebis gayofiT dRiuri realizaciis moculobaze. sasaqonlo maragebi aRiricxeba periodis ama Tu im momentisaTvis (dasawyisSi da bolosaTvis). garda amisa aucilebelia maTi saSualos gaangariSeba (saSualoTviuri, saSualokvartaluri, saSualowliuri). saSualoTviuri sasaqonlo maragi gaiangariSeba Tvis dasawyisisa da bolos maragebis jamis orze gayofiT. saSualokvartaluri sasaqonlo maragi dadgindeba sami Tvis saSualoTviuri maragebis saSualos mixedviT. amave gziT, kerZod, oTxi kvartlis saSualo maragebis mixedviT gaiangariSeba saSualowliuri sasaqonlo maragebi. saSualo maragebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba saqonelbrunvis siswrafis maCveneblebi: brunvadobis koeficienti
K br. 
Q q
K da brunvadoba dReebSi ( t )
t
T K br.
sadac, Q - mocemul periodSi realizebuli saqonlis jamia (saqonelbrunva); T - dReTa raodenoba mocemul periodSi. brunvadobis koeficienti gviCvenebs Tu ramdenjer gadabrunda mocemul periodSi saSualo maragi, xolo brunvadobis dReebSi ki ramdeni dRe sWirdeba erT gadabrunebas.
Tema 8. investiciebis statistika investiciebis qveS igulisxmeba yvela saxis nivTobrivi an inteleqtualuri faseulobani, romlebic mogebis miRebis mizniT dabandebulia samewarmeo da sxva saxis saqmianobaSi. statistikuri Seswavlilobis TvalsazrisiT investiciebis or saxeobas gamoyofen. finansurs da arafinansurs. finansur investiciebSi SeaqvT wminda finansuri dabandebani aqciebis, obligaciebis, fasiani qaRaldebis, agreTve, sxva sawarmoTa sawesdebo kapitalSi wilis, sabanko serTifikatebis, depozitebis, xolo arafinansurSi materialuri faseulobebis (miwa, Senobebi, nagebobani, mowyobiloba da sxv.) SesaZenad. investiciebis statistikis amocanebi mdgomareobs investiciebis saerTo moculobis, maTi struqturis (calkeul saxeobaTa mixedviT), investiciebis dinamikisa da maTze moqmedi faqtorebis SeswavlaSi. investiciuri saqmianoba makroekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT ekonomikuri ganviTarebis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi faqtoria. jer erTi, saxelmwifosa da kerZo seqtoris investiciebi, moziduli ucxo investiciebi, mosaxleobis SemosavlebTan erTad, erToblivi moTxovnis ZiriTadi komponentia. meore, investiciebi axali teqnologiebis dasanergad (gansaxorcieleblad) sawarmoebis modernizaciisaTvis ekonomikuri, finansuri da socialuri progresis sawindaria. gardamaval ekonomikaSi investiciebis didi rolisa da mniSvnelobis gamo, investiciebi statistikuri gamokvlevebis mixedviT saqarTveloSi sawarmoTa statistikuri gamokvlevis moqmed angariSebiT formaSi, am sakiTxebs specialuri ganyofileba eZRvneba. aq Seitaneba investiciebi finansur da arafinansur (ZiriTad da sabrunav) aqtivebSi (sawarmoSi sakuTari da sxva subieqtebidan moziduli finansuri saxsrebis an uSaulod sawarmosaTvis qonebis gadacemis formiT ganxorcielebuli) arafinansuri da finansuri (finansuri
180 aqtivebis gazrdis an valdebulebaTa dasafaravad dabandebuli) investiciebi, daumTavrebeli warmoebisa da mza nawarmis maragebis wminda zrda aseve miekuTvneba sawarmos mier sabrunav saSualebebSi ganxorcielebul investiciebs. საქართველოს სტატისტიკის ეროვნული სამსახურის მონაცემებით, 2009 წელს საქართველოში განხორციელებული პირდაპირი უცხოური ინვესტიციების მოცულობა 759,1 მლნ. აშშ დოლარს შეადგენს. 2009 წელს საქართველოში განხორციელებული ინვესტიციების მიხედვით არაბეთის გაერთიანებული ემირატები ლიდერობს, რომლის მიერ აღნიშნულ წელს განხორციელდა 169,8 მლნ. აშშ დოლარის ინვესტიცია. საქართველოში განხორციელებული პირდაპირი უცხოური ინვესტიციების მიხედვით, უმსხვილესი ქვეყნებია: არაბეთის გაერთიანებული საემიროები – 169,8 მლნ. აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 22,4%); ეგვიპტე – 167,5 მლნ. აშშ დოლარი (22,1%); ნიდერლანდები – 105,7 მლნ. აშშ დოლარი (13,9%); თურქეთი – 89,5 მლნ. აშშ დოლარი (11,8%); პანამა – 73,4 მლნ. აშშ დოლარი (9,7%); გაერთიანებული სამეფო – 63,5 მლნ. აშშ დოლარი (8,4%) პირდაპირი უცხოური ინვესტიციები სექტორების მიხედვით შემდეგნაირად ნაწილდება: მრეწველობა - 143,9 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 28,5 პროცენტი); უძრავი ქონების სექტორი - 103,6 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 20,5 პროცენტი); სამშენებლო სექტორი - 65,7 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 13 პროცენტი); ენერგეტიკის სექტორი - 30,1 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 6 პროცენტი);
181 ტრანსპორტი და კავშირგაბმულობა - 29,3 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 5,8 პროცენტი); საბანკო სექტორი - 7,6 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 1,5 პროცენტი); სოფლის მეურნეობა, თევზჭერა - 5 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 1 პროცენტი); დანარჩენი მომსახურება - 120 მლნ აშშ დოლარი (მთლიანი ინვესტიციების 23,7 პროცენტი); საქართველოში განხორციელებული პირდაპირი უცხოური ინვესტიციების ყველაზე დიდი წილი საწარმოებში განხორციელებულ ინვესტიციებზე მოდის.
pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi saqarTveloSi weli
Mmln.aSS dolari
2004
499,1
2005
449,8
2006
1190,4
2007
2014,8
2008
1564,0
2009
658,4
wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri
182
183
saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi qveynebis mixedviT
qveynebi
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
sul
449,785 1,190,375 2,014,842 1,563,963
maT Soris: azerbaijani
66,920.2 77,804.5
41,368.1
23,943
24,596.0
avstria
14,732.2 10,749.3
11,384.4
51,463
14,451.3
4,900.2
58,586.2
187,815.5
1,279.6
15,032.2
dania
319.0
42,477.8
227,926.4 34,858 158,126.2 256
safrangeTi
14,383.3 17,221.7
43,726.0
8,180
11,944.8
germania
5,031.8
56,987.8
40,591
3,658.0 20,283.9
virjinis k-bi (brit.) CexeTi
20,380.8
156,847
759,078.6
5,691.8 15,057.3 139.8
indoeTi
29.0
61.9
26,998
italia
22,833.5 47,219.1
15,228.1
6,048
1,172.5
luqsemburgi
553.1
261.1
9,245.7
5,731
6,206.3
18,530.2
299,277.2 135,870 34,200.1 2,693
54.9
niderlandebi
492.0
norvegia
23,620.9 77,894.8
panama
-
ruseTi
38,737.6 34,210.0
280.5
130,858.7 306,576
arabeTis gaerTianebuli emiratebi TurqeTi gaerTianebuli samefo
3,391.6
422.6
105,679.7 1,877.3
6,177.7
-2,470
73,414.1
88,996.5
26,212
2,049.5
21,812.5 129,727.8 93,871.1
169,784.0
164,526
89,506.3
132,925.8 186,824.1 145,474.8 148,908
63,549.2
pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis moculobam saqarTveloSi 2007 wels 2014,8 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, rac 4,5-jer metia 2004 wlis maCvenebelze.
finansebis roli samewarmeo saqmianobaSi da statistikis amocanebi safinanso statistika farTod gamoiyeneba rogorc mimdinare, ise sainvesticio samewarmeo saqmianobis efeqtianobis SefasebisaTvis. mewarmeobis finansebi fuladi formis safinanso urTierTobania saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis, gacvlisa da realizaciis mTels procesSi. es urTierTobani warmoiqmneba: 1. TviT mewarmeobis Sida saqmianobaSi fulad-safinanso resursebis warmoqmnis, ganawilebisa da gamoyenebis procesTan dakavSirebiT; 2. bankebTan urTierTobis procesSi sabanko sesxebis miRebis, maTze procentebis gadaxdis da sxva momentebTan dakavSirebiT; 3. sxva mewarmeebTan da sameurneo subieqtebTan eqsportimportis operaciebis, ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis, maT Soris fasiani qaRaldebis SeZenis saqmeSi da sxva; 4. sadazRvevo kompaniebTan sxvadasxva saxis sadazRvevo fondebis warmoqmnisa da gamoyenebis procesSi da a.S. statistikis amocanebia Seiswavlos safinanso resursebis moculoba, struqtura, dinamika, warmoqmna, gamoyeneba, agreTve, mogebis, rentabelobis (Semosavlianobis) gansazRvra, mewarmeobis safinanso-sakredito valdebulebebisa da gadaxdisunarianobis Sefaseba. samewarmeo ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis moculobiT safinanso-statistikur indikatorebs ganekuTvneba:
184
185
samewarmeo ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis moculobiTi safinanso-statistikuri indikatorebi a. mimdinare samewarmeo-saqmianobisaTvis: sawesdebo kapitali, TviTRirebuleba, mimoqcevis xarjebi, Semosavlebi, mogeba-zarali, gadasaxadebi saxelmwifo biujetSi, debitoruli da kreditoruli davalianebani, sabrunavi saxsrebi, sadazRvevo Sesatanebi biujetgareSe saxelmwifo fondebSi, sakuTari da nasesxebi safinanso resursebi da sxv. b. sainvesticio dabandebebisaTvis: investiciebis saerTo moculoba calkeul saxeobaTa mixedviT, Semosavlebi investiciebidan da a.S. sawesdebo kapitali, rogorc safinanso resursebis pirveldawyebiTi wyaro, warmoiqmneba mewarmeobis dafuZnebis momentSive damfuZneblebis mier Senatanebis aqcioneruli kapitalis, sapaio da sxva xarjze materialuri (ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis) da aramaterialuri (damfuZnebelTa iuridiuli ufleba miwis, inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis, bunebrivi resursebis, patentebis, licenziebis, savaWro markebis da sxvaTa sargebloba) aqtivebis Sesaqmnelad. TviTRirebuleba mniSvnelovani safinanso-ekonomikuri indikatoria, romelic gviCvenebs Tu ra ujdeba mewarmeobas, bizness, menejments, saqonlis momsaxurebis warmoeba da realizacia. misi Semcireba mewarmeobis, biznesisa da menejmentis mogebis gadidebis, am safuZvelze safinansoekonomikuri saqmianobis gajansaRebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani faqtoria. TviTRirebuleba (produqciis, saqonlis, momsaxurebis), rogorc absoluturi safinanso-statistikuri indikatori, gamoiyeneba sawarmoo da samomsaxureo samewarmeo ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi. masSi Seitaneba sawarmoTa statistikuri gamokvlevis formaSi naCvenebi yvela saxis
saoperacio danaxarji (garda gadasayidad gankuTvnili im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvebze gaweuli danaxarjebisa, romelic formisa da Tvisebebis Seucvlelad gadaiyida wlis ganmavlobaSi damatebuli Rirebulebisa da aqcizis gareSe). es xarjebia: 1. nedleuli da ZiriTadi masalebi, makompleqtebeli nawarmi da naxevarfabrikatebi; 2. saTbobi, sawvavi da energia; 3. gare organizaciebis an fizikuri pirebisagan gaweuli momsaxurebis anazRaurebisaTvis daricxuli xarjebi; 4. saijaro qira; 5. Sromis anazRaureba dasaqmebul personalze; 6. daricxuli socialuri gadasaxadi; 7. mimdinare warmoebaSi gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTis amortizacia; 8. warmoebis xarjebSi Sesuli gadasaxadebi da mosakreblebi. am xarjebiT SeiZleba Sedges warmoebisa da momsaxurebis mTliani xarjTaRricxva, sasaqonlo produqciis mTliani TviTRirebuleba, danaxarjebi sasaqonlo produqciis erT larze da saqonlis (momsaxurebis) erTeulis TviTRirebuleba. sasaqonlo produqcia igive produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) gamoSvebaa, rac moicavs saoperacio Semosavlebis brunvas mTlianad saqmianobis (rogorc ZiriTadi ise araZiriTadi) yvela saxeobaTa mixedviT. mza produqciis sasaqonlo (igive, produqciis gamoSveba) produqcia gaiangariSeba mimdinare sabazro fasebSi saerTo saqmianobis yvela saxeobis mixedviT saoperacio Semosavlebis (produqciis) saerTo brunvisa da mza produqciis maragebis cvlilebis safuZvelze, gadasayidad gankuTvnili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvebze gaweuli saoperacio danaxarjebis gamoklebiT. mTliani TviTRirebuleba Sefardebuli sasaqonlo produqciis moculobaze, gvaZlevs iseT metad mniSvnelovan
186 indikators, rogoricaa danaxarjebi sasaqonlo produqciis erT larze. Tu es maCvenebeli erTs aWarbebs (magaliTad udris 1,2 lars) mewarmeoba zaraliania (sasaqonlo produqciis erT larze zarali Seadgens 20 TeTrs), xolo Tu erTze naklebia (magaliTad 0,8), mewarmeoba momgebiania (sasaqonlo produqciis erT larze mogeba 20 TeTria). aqedan daproeqtdeba mewarmeobis regulirebis Sesabamisi ekonomikuri, biznesmenuri da menejmenturi RonisZiebani. samewarmeo ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi gvaqvs, agreTve, mTliani gamoSveba anu mTliani Semosavlebi, romelic produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) gamoSvebasTan erTad moicavs Sromis naturaluri anazRaurebis saxiT, usasyidlod an barteruli wesiT gacemuli produqciis Rirebulebas, kapitalizirebul saqonelsa da momsaxurebas (sakuTari warmoebisaTvis an investirebisaTvis warmoebuli produqciis Rirebuleba), grantebsa da Semowirulobebs, daumTavrebeli warmoebis naSTebis cvlilebas (+mateba, -kleba), arasaoperacio Semosavlebs (saprocento Semosavlebi, dividendebi da sabrunavi kapitalis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavlebi da sxv.), agreTve, subsidiebs warmoebasa da produqciaze. amis Sesabamisad gvaqvs mTliani xarjTaRricxva, romelic moicavs saoperacio xarjebs, agreTve, arasaoperacio da gauTvaliswinebel xarjebs (saprocento xarjebi, mimdinare warmoebaSi gamouyenebel ZiriTad kapitalze daricxuli amortizacia, realizebuli da Camowerili kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba da sxv.). Tu mTlian gamoSvebas (Semosavlebs) gamovaklebT xarjTaRricxvas, miviRebT mogebas an zarals. TviTRirebulebis msgavsi maCvenebeli mimoqcevis sferoSi aris mimoqcevis xarjebi. aseTi mimoqcevis (vaWrobis an sxva dargis) ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizacia, muSakTa Sromis anazRaureba, transportirebis, garTobis, ganaTebis, SefuTvis, daxarisxebis da sxva xarjebi. produqciis erTeulis TviTRirebuleba erTerTi mniSvnelovani indikatoria samewarmeo ekonomikaSi, biznessa da
187 menejmentSi. biznesmenebi da menejerebi swored am maCvenebels udareben saqonlis momsaxurebis fasebs (tarifebs). Sedegad arkveven ekonomika da biznesi momgebiania Tu zaraliani, vinaidan kargad ician, rom gansxvaveba sabazro fassa (tarifs) da TviTRirebulebas Soris aris samewarmeo biznesis mogeba. amitom produqciisa da momsaxurebis erTeulis (1 cali nakeTobis, erTi wyvili fexsacmlis, 1 kilovatsaaTi eleqtroenergiis, erTi mgzavris gadayvanis anu mgzavr/kilometris, erTi tona tvirTis erT km-ze gadazidvis anu t/km-is da sxv.) TviTRirebulebis sworad gaangariSebas didi mniSvneloba eniWeba samewarmeo ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi. produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) erTeulis TviTRirebulebis gaangariSebisaTvis anu kalkulaciisaTvis mewarmeobis mTliani danaxarjebi unda davajgufoT sakalkulacio muxlebis mixedviT anu ZiriTad da zednadeb xarjebad (sawarmoTa statistikuri dakvirvebis formaSi xarjebi dajgufebulia mxolod ekonomikuri elementebis mixedviT, rac ar iZleva produqciis erTeulis TviTRirebulebis pirdapiri gaangariSebis saSualebas). pirdapiri xarjebia nedleulis, ZiriTadi masalebis, naxevarfabrikatebis, teqnologiuri saTbobis, teqnologiuri eleqtroenergiis, ZiriTadi xelfasis da sxva danaxarjebi. am xarjebis mixedviT mewarmeobaSi arsebobs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis erTeulze xarjvis normebi, romelTa gadamravlebiT sabazro fasze vRebulobT Sesabamis TiToeuli ZiriTadi danaxarjis moculobas. amis garda mewarmoebaSi arsebobs zednadebi (saerTo, administraciuli da sxva) xarjebi, romlebic sxvadasxva saxis ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegad warmoebuli produqciis erTeulze unda ganawildes romelime pirdapiri, ZiriTadi danaxarjis pirdapirproporciulad. Cveulebrivad aseT ZiriTad danaxarjad miiCneven ZiriTad xelfass, romelic produqciis erTeulze mocemulia saTanado Sefasebebis mixedviT.
188
189
magaliTi. ZiriTadi xelfasis fondi mewarmeobaSi yvela saxis produqciis warmoebisaTvis Seadgens 100,0 aTas lars TveSi, xolo zednadebi xarjebi - 200,0 aTass. am SemTxvevaSi zednadebi xarjebi orjer metia ZiriTad xelfasze, anu Seadgens 200 %-s. Tu, magaliTad, mewarmeobaSi sami (,,a~, ,,b~, da ,,g~) saxis produqcia iwarmoeba da TiToeulze moqmedi satarifo sistemiT ixarjeba ZiriTadi xelfasi Sesabamisad 2 lari, 1,5 lari da 3 lari, maSin zednadebi xarjebi TiToeul maTganze Seadgens
2 200 4 100
3 200 6 100
lars,
1.5 200 3 100
lars,
da
lars. sabolood rogorc ZiriTadi ise zednadebi
xarjebis jami gvaZlevs produqciis erTeulis TviTRirebulebas. safinanso-statistikur absolutur indikatorTa Soris sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi gansakuTrebul adgils iWers debitoruli da kreditoruli davalianebani. debitoruli davalianebaa saangariSo davalianeba myidvelebTan, biujetTan da sxva debitorebTan. aseTia, magaliTad angariSvaldebul pirTa davalianeba, avansi, romelic gacemulia mimwodeblebisa da moijarade organizaciebisadmi da a.S. am SemTxvevaSi debitoria is subieqti, iuridiuli an fizikuri piri, romelic movalea e.i. valdebulia mocemuli mewarmis mimarT. kreditoruli davalianebis SemTxvevaSi ki piriqiTaa. mocemuli mewarme warmoadgens debitors anu valdebuls sxva iuridiuli an fizikuri pirebisadmi saqonlis an momsaxurebis miwodebis, biujetisadmi gadasaxadebis gadaxdis, muSamosamsaxureebisadmi Sromis anazRaurebis gacemis da sxva urTierTobis dargSi. kreditoruli davalianebebis sistematuri gadaWarbeba (mxolod droebiTaa dasaSvebi) debitoruli davalianebisadmi arajansaRi safinanso-ekonomikuri
mdgomareobis maCvenebelia da metyvelebs mewarmis, biznesmenis gadaxdisuunarobaze. safinanso-statistikur absolutur maCvenebelTa Soris erT-erTi mniSvnelovania, agreTve, mewarmeobis mTliani (da maT Soris sakuTari da nasesxebi) sabrunavi saxsrebis moculoba da struqtura. sabrunavi saxsrebi Sedgeba sabrunavi fondebis (mimdinare, sadazRvevo, sezonuri, teqnologiuri maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba da momavali periodis xarjebi) da mimoqcevis fondebisagan (mza produqcia, mza produqcia sawyobSi, gadagzavnili myidvelebze, gzaSi, da fuladi saxsrebi angariSsworebis angariSze bankSi). mTlianad sabrunavi saxsrebis Rirebuleba saWiroa samewarmeo ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis uwyveti funqcionirebisa da ganviTarebisaTvis. amitom im SemTxvevaSi, roca ar hyofnis ama Tu im momentSi sawarmos sakuTari sabrunavi saxsrebi nedleulis masalebis, saTbobis da sxva mimdinare maragis SesaZenad, agreTve, dasaqmebul pirTaTvis Sromis asanazRaureblad da sxva miznebisaTvis, mewarmes, biznesmensa da menejers SeuZlia gamoiyenos nasesxebi sabrunavi saSualebani. nebismieri samewarmeo biznesisa da menejeruli saqmianobis ZiriTadi mizania mogebis miReba. es indikatori biznesisa da menejmentis yvelaze mTavari absoluturi maCvenebelia. Tanamedrove sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi warmoiqmneba mogebis oTxi ZiriTadi saxeoba: produqciis realizaciidan miRebuli mogeba, sabalanso mogeba, saerTo da wminda mogeba. produqciis (saqonelisa da momsaxurebis) realizaciidan miRebuli mogeba ganisazRvreba realicaiidan amonageb Tanxasa (aqcizis, agreTve, damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadis gamoklebiT) da TviTRirebulebas Soris sxvaobiT. cxadia, Tu TviTRirebulebaSi gaTvaliswinebuli danaxarjebi aWarbebs
190 produqciis realizaciidan miRebul amonagebs, maSin warmoiqmneba zarali, rac mewarmeobis gakotrebis maniSnebelia. sabalanso mogeba mTliani mewarmeobis sameurneosafinanso saqmianobis Sedegia, romelic produqciis realizaciidan miRebuli mogebis garda Seicavs qonebis gayidvidan da arasarealizacio operaciebidan miRebul Semosavals (sxvaoba arasarealizacio Semosavlebsa da danaxarjebs Soris). mewarmoebis arasarealizacio Semosavlebia is Semosavlebi, romlebic miiReba ara produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) realizaciidan, aramed sameurneo-sabazro saqmianobis da sxva operaciebidan. aseTia, magaliTad, sauravoebi, jarimebi, romlebic mocemulma sawarmom daakisra momwodeblebsa da myidvelebs, savaluto kursis dadebiTi gansxvaveba, aqciebidan da sxva fasiani qaRaldebidan Semosuli dividendebi da sxva saxis Semosavlebi, Semosavlebi sxva sawarmoTa kapitalSi wilobrivi monawileobisaTvis da sxv. samewarmeo ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi arasarealizacio SemosavlebTan erTad arsebobs arasarealizacio danaxarjebic. maT Sorisaa saarbitraJo da sasamarTlo danaxarjebi, ekonomikuri sanqciebiT gamowveuli danaxarjebi (jarimebi, sauravoebi da sxv.), ucxouri valutis operaciebze uaryofiTi sakurso gansxvavebani, mza produqciis, agreTve, sawarmoo maragebis CamofasebiT miRebuli zarali, stiqiuri ubedurebiT gamowveuli danaxarjebi, dakonservebuli sawarmoo simZlavreebidan miRebuli zarali da sxv. mTliani mogeba igive sabalanso mogebaa, mxolod im gansxvavebiT, rom misi gaangariSebisaTvis jarimebi da sauravoebi gaiTvaliswineba mxolod im nawiliT, rac rCeba biujetSi da arasabiujeto fondebSi maTi gadaricxvis gamoklebiT. wminda mogeba miiReba mTliani mogebidan biujetSi gadasaxadebisa da arasabiujeto saxelmwifo fondebSi sadazRvevo Sesatanebis gamoklebiT.
191 CamoTvlili absoluturi safinanso-statistikuri maCveneblebis safuZvelze warmoebs samewarmeo ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis funqcionirebis SefardebiTi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba da Sedegebis statistikuri Sefasebani. samewarmeo biznesisa da menejmentis SefardebiTi safinanso-statistikuri indikatorebi samewarmeo ekonomikis, biznesisa da menejmentis mimdinare saqmianobis SefardebiT safinanso-statistikur maCvenebelTa Soris, Tavisi mniSvnelobiT, gamoiyofa safinanso simtkicis, rentabelobis da brunvadobis indikatorebi, xolo sainvesticio saqmianobaSi investiciebis Semosavlebis koeficientebi. biznesis, ekonomikisa da menejmentis safinanso-simtkicis qveS igulisxmeba mewarmoebis materialur da aramaterialur aqtivebSi dabandebuli Tanxebis Tavis droze anazRaurebisa da yvela safinanso valdebulebaTa gadaxdisunarianoba. amisaTvis safinanso statistikis msoflio Teoriasa da praqtikaSi ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba ori indikatori. esenia: 1.
mewarmeobis avtonomiurobis koeficienti:
K avt. 
K avt.
sadac,
Qsak. QmTl.
ď‚´ 100
- mewarmeobis avtonomiurobis koeficienti,
procentobiT;
Qsak. QmTl.
- sakuTari safinanso resursebi; - mTliani safinanso resursebi.
192
193
Tu es koeficienti dinamikaSi izrdeba, es imas niSnavs, rom sakuTari safinanso resursebiT mewarmeobis valdebulebaTa gadaxdisunarianoba umjobesdeba. 2.
saerTo likvidurobis koeficienti:
K likv. sadac,
Qlikv. Qdav.
K likv.
saerTo
likvidurobis
koeficientia, procentobiT;
Qlikv.
- likviduri Tanxebi (fuladi resursebi fasian
qaRaldebSi, sasaqonlo-materialur faseulobaTa maragebSi dabandebuli fuladi resursebi da debitoruli davalianebani):
Qdav
0.3 mln. lari 100 20% 1.5 mln. lari TviTRirebuleba - 0,8 mln. lari. realizebuli produqciis rentabeloba:
100 -davalianebaTa
Rirebulebam 1,5 mln lari. amonagebi realizaciidan 1,0 mln. lari. aqedan mewarmeobis saerTo rentabeloba udris:
- mewarmeobis moklevadiani davalianebani.
Tu es koeficienti 100-ze naklebia, mewarmeoba aragadaxdisunaria, xolo Tu 100-ze metia, safinansoekonomikuri mdgomareoba mtkicea, vinaidan nebismier dros sawarmos SeuZlia gadaixados yovelgvari moklevadiani safinanso valdebulebani da gaagrZelos muSaoba normalur situaciaSi. rentabeloba mewarmeobis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani SefardebiTi, xarisxobrivi maCvenebelia. is mogebis procentuli Sefardebaa resursebTan (ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitali, aramaterialuri resursebi), romelic resursebis gamoyenebis efeqtianobas axasiaTebs an produqciis TviTRirebulebasTan (axasiaTebs danaxarjTa gamoyenebis efeqtianobas). magaliTi. wliurma sabalanso mogebam samewarmeo biznesSi Seadgina 300,0 aTasi lari, xolo ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis, agreTve, aramaterialuri aqtivebis saSualowliurma
1.0 - 0.8 100 25% 0.8 rentabelobis amaRleba mewarmeobis ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi sami ZiriTadi faqtoris zemoqmedebiT ganisazRvreba. esenia: produqciis erTeulis TviTRirebulebis Semcireba, fasebis gadideba da struqturuli Zvrebi. cxadia, ramdenadac mcirea produqciis danaxarjebi anu erTeulis TviTRirebuleba da maRalia fasi, miT metia mogebis absoluturi moculoba da resursebis gamoyenebis efeqtianoba anu rentabeloba. am ori faqtoris amoqmedeba biznessa da menejmentSi did winaaRmdegobas awydeba bazrebis dapyrobisaTvis konkurenciul brZolaSi, ramdenadac orTave umTavresad sabazro moTxovna-miwodebis kanonebiT yalibdeba da bevrad araa damokidebuli biznesmenur da menejerul unarianobaze. gansxvavebiT am ori faqtorebisagan, rentabelobis amaRlebis mesame faqtori, struqturuli Zvrebi, SedarebiT zustad gamoxatavs mewarmeobis efeqtianobaze biznesmenTa da menejerTa unaris, gergilianobis zemoqmedebas. swored aq iCens Tavis biznesmenTa da menejerTa unari erTi da mxolod erTi metad mniSvnelovani amocanis gadawyvetis (ra vawarmooT, rogor vawarmooT da visTvis vawarmooT) efeqtianoba.
194
195
magaliTi. firmaSi iwarmoeba sami dasaxelebis produqcia; ,,a~, ,,b~ da ,,g~. erTeulis TviTRirebuleba da fasebi saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi aseT suraTs iZleva:
produ qciis saxeo bani
fasi lari
erTeulis TviTRirebuleba lari
mogeba erTeulze lari
produqciis gamoSveba cali
fasi lari
erTeulis TviTRire buleba lari
mogeba erTeulze lari
II kvartali
produqccis gamoSveba cali
I kvartali
500 600 900
5.0 10.0 15
4.5 8.0 14.0
0.5 2.0 1.0
550 1200 1000
5.0 10.0 15.0
4.5 8.0 14.0
0.5 2.0 1.0
produqciis calkeul saxeobaTa mixedviT rentabeloba (mogeba %-obiT TviTRirebulebisadmi): sabaziso periodSi: ,,a~ saxis produqciaze ,,b~ saxis produqciaze ,,g~ saxis produqciaze
0.5 100 11% 4.5 2 100 25% 8 1 100 7% 14
saangariSo periodSi anu II kvartalSi rentabelobis maCveneblebi calkeuli saxis produqciis mixedviT ar Secvldila anu darCa igive, rac iyo I kvartalSi. Seicvala mxolod produqciis nomenklaturis anu dasaxelebis mixedviT struqtura, rac gamoiwvia menejeruli RonisZiebebis gatarebam yvelaze metad rentabeluri produqciis (,,b~ saxis produqciis) xvedriTi wilis amaRlebis mimarTulebiT. I kvartalSi firmaSi ,,b~ saxis produqciis gamoSvebis xvedriTi wili saerTo gamoSvebaSi Seadgenda:
600 10 100 27% (500 5) (600 10) (900 15) xolo II kvartalSi
1200 10 100 40% (550 5) (1200 10) (1000 15) axla vnaxoT aseTma struqturulma Zvrebma anu ,,b~ saxis nawarmis xvedriTi wilis gazrdam produqciis saerTo gamoSvebaSi II kvartalSi I kvartalTan SedarebiT, ra gavlena moaxdina firmis mogebis gadidebasa da rentabelobis amaRlebaze. am kiTxvaze, rogorc indeqsebis Teoriidanaa cnobili, pasuxs iZleva indeqsebs Soris urTierTkavSiris formula:
q z q z
1 1
0 0
q z q z q z q z 1 0
1 1
0 0
1 0
196
197 anu
I qz I q I z
sadac
q1
da
q0
TiToeuli saxis
produqciis moculobaa saangariSo (II kvartali) da sabaziso (I kvartali) periodebSi;
z1
da
z0
-
TiToeuli
saxis
produqciaze
mogeba
I str.
q z q z
1 0 0 0
(550 0.5) (1200 2.0) (1000 1.0) (500 0.5) (600 2.0) (900 1.0)
1.56
Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi;
I qz
Iz Iq
- cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsia; - struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi; - ucvleli Semadgenlobis indeqsi.
cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsi gviCvenebs firmaSi saerTo mogebis gadidebas ori faqtoris (produqciis moculobisa da produqciis erTeulze mogebis) cvalebadobis, struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi struqturuli Semadgenlobis anu calkeuli saxis produqciis warmoebis moculobis cvalebadobis, xolo ucvleli anu fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsi - produqciis erTeulze mogebis cvalebadobis xarjze. Cvens mier zemoTmotanili cxrilis monacemebis safuZvelze gamovTvaloT cvalebadi, fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Semadgenlobis indeqsebi.
I cval .
q z q z
1 1
0 0
1.56
I fiqs.
q z q z
1 1
1 0
1
(550 0.5) (1200 2.0) (1000 1.0) (500 0.5) (600 2.0) (900 1.0)
(550 0.5) (1200 2.0) (1000 1.0) (550 0.5) (1200 2.0) (1000 1.0)
I cval. I fiqs. I str. 1.0 1.56 1.56 rac dasturdeba indeqsebs Soris urTierTkavSiris formulidan. maSasadame, miuxedavad imisa, rom ucvleli darCa rogorc fasebi, aseve produqciis erTeulis TviTRirebulebani, struqturuli Zvrebis xarjze anu maRalrentabeluri produqciis (,,b~) gamoSvebis xvedriTi wilis mkveTri amaRlebis gziT menejerma miaRwia saerTo mogebis Tanxis gadidebas II kvartalSi I kvartalTan SedarebiT 1325 lariT anu 56%-iT. sabrunavi saxsrebis gamoyenebis SefardebiTi maCveneblebidan aRsaniSnavia, agreTve, brunvadobis indikatorebi (brunvadobis koeficienti, brunvadoba dReebSi da sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis koeficienti), romlebic mkiTxvelisaTvis ukve cnobilia sabrunavi saxsrebis statistikis Sesabamisi Tavisadmi miZRvnili masalidan. mimdinare saqmianobisgan gansxvavebiT, sainvesticio samewarmeo saqmianobaSi, mimdinare momgebianoba ganisazRvreba SemosavlianobiT. sainvesticio Semosavlianoba ZiriTadad ori faqtoriT ganisazRvreba. esenia: sainvesticio kapitalze fasTa sxvaoba wlis ganmavlobaSi da dividendebi. fasTa sxvaobas anu holdingur mogebas Tu mivumatebT dividendebs da SevufardebT wlis dasawyisSi investoris mier dabandebuli investiciebis moculobas, miviRebT investiciebis Semosavlianobas procentobiT.
198
199
magaliTi. wlis dasawyisSi korporaciis aqciebi investorma SeiZina 2500 aSS dolarad. wlis bolos aseTi aqciebis sabazro fasma 3000 aSS dolari Seadgina. wlis manZilze dividendis saxiT investorma am aqciebiT miiRo 700 aSS dolari. aseT SemTxvevaSi aqciebis Semosavlianoba procentobiT Seadgens:
(3000 2500) 700 100 48% 2500 Tema 9. sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa statistika nebismieri qveynis ekonomikis aRmavloba yovlad warmoudgenelia sxva qveynebTan produqciisa da saqmianobis urTierTgacvlis gareSe. am saqmianobis urTierTgacvla nivTobrivad gulisxmobs saqonlis, samuSao Zalisa da kapitalis gacvlas ekonomikurad urTierTxelsayrel pirobebSi. es imas niSnavs, rom arsebobs Sromis saerTaSoriso danawileba, romlis safuZvelze calkeuli qveynis xalxebi specializebulia maTTvis ekonomikurad iafi da maRalxarisxovani produqciis warmoebaze, gaaCniaT am saqonlis ,,Warbi~ maragi da SeuZliaT misi gacvliT monawileoba miiRon saerTaSoriso brunvaSi. nivTobrivad es saqoneli SeiZleba iyos rogorc warmoebis saSualebani, ise moxmarebis sagnebi da maTi urTierTgacvla warmoadgens TiToeuli qveynis sawarmoo ZalTa ganviTarebis ucilobel pirobas. amis garda, ama Tu im qveyanas SeiZleba hqondes ,,Warbi~ SromiTi resursebi da inteleqtualuri potenciali, risi gacvlad agreTve qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebis erT-erTi faqtoria. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobebSi igulisxmeba: savaWro-ekonomikuri, samecniero-teqnikuri, safinansosakredito, savaluto urTierTobani, agreTve, saerTaSoriso
gadazidvebi, ucxouri turizmi da sxva urTierTobebi. aqedan yvelaze mniSvnelovania, Tavisi moculobiT, laris savaWroekonomikuri TanamSromloba ucxoeTTan, rac Tavis asaxvas hpovebs sagareo vaWrobaSi. aranaklebi mniSvnelobisaa rogorc yvela qveynis, ise saqarTvelosaTvis samecniero-teqnikuri TanamSromloba ucxoeTTan, rac mniSvnelovanwilad aisaxeba erToblivi sawarmoebis SeqmniT mrewvelobis, mSeneblobis, soflis meurneobis, vaWrobisa da sxva metad mniSvnelovan dargebSi. es dargi amJamad Tavisi moculobiT mcirea, magram progersulad mzardia da unda vivaraudoT, rom is perspeqtivaSi erT-erT wamyvan adgils daiWers sagareoekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa sferoSi. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirurTierTobani mravalmxrivia, romelTa maCveneblebi moicavs mraval ganmartebasa da definicias. maT Sorisaa: importi, eqsporti, eqsport-importis saldo, reeqsporti, sagadamxdelo balansi, erTiani sasaqonlo nomenklatura, barteri, ucxouri valuta, garigebis valuta, savaluto kursi, sagareo vaWrobis brunva, dempingi, kliringi, defliatori, defliacia, kompensaciuri SeTanxmebani, saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi, gadasayvani maneTi, generaluri vaWroba, uxilavi vaWroba, saerTaSoriso tranziti da sxv. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa zemoT CamoTvlil maCvenebelTa statistikaSi gvaqvs importis statistika, eqsportis statistika, reeqsportis statistika, sagareo vaWrobis saldos statistika, sagadamxdelo balansis statistika da a.S. importi ewodeba saqonlis Semozidvas sxva qveynebidan, eqsporti ki samamulo warmoebis saqonlis sxva qveynebSi gadazidvas niSnavs. reeqsporti wina periodSi importirebuli saqonlis gatanaa sxva qveynebSi. eqsporti, importi da reeqsporti (CaiTvleba eqsportis saerTo moculobaSi) aisaxeba naturalur da RirebulebiT formaSi. RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi maTi Tanxa aisaxeba nacionalur valutaSi larebSi. larebSi oficialuri kursiT gadaiyvaneba yvela
200 sagareo vaWrobis saerTo brunva (eqsport-importis jami). eqsportSi ar Seitaneba humanitaruli daxmarebis mizniT sazRvargareT usasyidlod gaziduli saqonlis Rirebuleba, gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis (gaeros) teqnikuri daxmarebis fondSi sawevro Sesatanebi, saerTaSoriso gamofenebze gatanili saqonlis Rirebuleba, safosto gzavnilebaTa da sazRvargareT wasul moqalaqeTa piradi bargis Rirebuleba da a.S. eqsport-importis sagareo vaWrobis saldo ewodeba sxvaobas eqsportsa da imports Soris. is SeiZleba iyos aqtiuri (,,plius~ niSniT), roca eqsporti aWarbebs imports da pasiuri (,,minus~ niSniT), roca sawinaaRmdego SemTxvevasTan gvaqvs saqme. sagadamxdelo balansi ewodeba urTierTSefardebas mocemul qveyanaSi ama Tu im periodSi sazRvargareTidan savaluto Semosavlebsa da am qveynis sazRvargareT gadaxdebs Soris. balansis ZiriTadi elementebia fuladi Semosavlebi da gadasaxdelebi, rac dakavSirebulia eqsport-importTan, oqros valutis rezervebis cvlilebani, Semosavlebi da gasavlebi sxvadasxva saxis momsaxurebisaTvis (transporti, turizmi da sxv.), arasavaWro gzavnilebani, gacemuli da miRebuli kreditisaTvis Semosavlebi da gadasaxadebi, sxva qveynebSi gacemuli da sxva qveynebidan miRebul investiciebTan dakavSirebuli Semosavlebi da gadasaxdelebi da sxv. sagadamxdelo balansis Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris sxvaobas ewodeba sagadamxdelo balansis saldo, romelic sagareo vaWrobis balansis msgavsad SeiZleba iyos aqtiuri (Semosavlebi aWarbebs gasavlebs) da pasiuri (gasavlebi metia Semosavlebze). sagareo vaWrobis erTiani sasaqonlo nomenklatura sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia. is gulisxmobs, rom mravali dasaxelebis saqoneli klasificirebulia garkveuli niSnebiT da Seqmnilia erTiani sasaqonlo nomenklaturis sistema, romelic
201 gamoiyeneba eqsport-importis statistikur aRricxvaSi rogorc erTi, ise ramdenime qveynis farglebSi. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa erT-erTi maCvenebelia barteri, romelic gulisxmobs saqonlis urTierTgacvlas sxvadasxva qveynebs Soris fuladi angariSsworebis gareSe. ucxouri valuta ucxour saxelmwifoTa sakredito saSualebaSi (veqsili, Ceki), romlebic gamoiyeneba saerTaSoriso urTierTangariSsworebaSi. valuta iyofa sam jgufad: konvertirebadi, nawilobriv konvertirebadi da arakonvertirebadi. konvertirebadi anu ukuqcevadi ewodeba iseT valutas, romelic Tavisuflad icvleba sxva valutaze. nawilobriv konvertirebadi valuta qveynis iseTi fuladi erTeulia, romelic savaluto SezRudvebs cvlis ara yvela savaluto operaciaze, aramed mxolod ucxoeTidan Camosul fizikur da iuridiul ararezident pirTaTvis. arakonvertirebadi anu araukuqcevadi valuta ewodeba fulad erTeuls, romelic Caketilia erTi qveynis farglebSi da mxolod saSinao mimoqcevaSi gamoiyeneba. garigebis valuta is valutaa, romelSiac aisaxeba sagareo vaWrobis saqoneli, momsaxureba an saerTaSoriso kreditis Tanxa. savaluto kursi erTi qveynis fuladi erTeulis ,,fasia~, gamosaxuli sxva qveynis fulad erTeuliT. mas awesebs bankebi da oqros standartiT ganisazRvreba oqros paritetiT anu fulad erTeulTa oqros SemcvelobiT. sagareo vaWrobis brunva eqsportisa da importis jamia fulad formaSi gamosaxuli ama Tu im kalendaruli drois monakveTSi. dempingi ewodeba dabal fasebSi (saqinao saerTaSoriso fasebTan SedarebiT) saqonlis gadazidvas sxva qveyanaSi. es warmoebs bazrebis ,,dapyrobis~ mizniT da zarali daifareba saqinao bazris maRali fasebis xarjze.
202 kliringi qveynebs Soris angariSsworebaa naRdi fuladi erTeulebis gareSe urTierTmoTxovnaTa CaTvlis gziT. qveynebs Soris urTierTdavalianeba daifareba urTierTSemxvedri sagadamxdelo valdebulebebiT (CekebiT, gzavnilebiT da sxv.). defliatori fasebis indeqsia, romelic fasebis cvalebadobis Tavidan asacileblad gamoiyeneba RirebulebiT maCvenebelTa erTi romelime sabaziso wlis maCveneblebSi gadasayvanad. defliacia saxelmwifos mier gayalbebuli fuladi masis Semcirebaa gadasaxadebis gadidebis, sabiujeto danaxarjTa Semcirebis, saqonlis fasebis Semcirebis, kreditze moTxovnis Semcirebis da sxvaTa gziT. sakompensacio SeTanxmebani ewodeba saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTSeTanxmebas, romlis mixedviT erToblivi sawarmoebis mSeneblobisas xdeba manqanebis, mowyobilobis, masalebisa da sxvaTa miwodeba, xolo sakompensaciod mimwodebeli qveyana miiRebs am mowyobilobiT, masalebiT da sxv. gamoyenebiT warmoebul produqcias. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi sxvadasxva saxelmwifoTa xelmoweriTa da SeTanxmebiT Seiqmna aSS-ebSi Catarebul saerTaSoriso konferenciaze 1944 wels da miznad isaxavs saerTaSoriso savaluto TanamSromlobis gaumjobesebas am fondis wevri qveynebis safinanso problemebis gadawyvetis dargSi. awarmoebs statistikuri masalebis Segrovebasa da damuSavebas kursis, oqros savaluto rezervebis fuladi mimoqcevisa da sabanko saqmianobis, saerTaSoriso komerciuli ganakveTebisa da sxvaTa Sesaxeb. generaluri vaWroba saerTaSoriso statistikis maCvenebelia. es maCvanebeli gamoiyeneba eqsport-importis gasaangariSeblad sagareo vaWrobis e.w. ,,saerTo~ sistemiT aRricxvis pirobebSi. is moicavs importSi: saqonels, Semoziduls mocemul qveyanaSi gadasamuSaveblad da moxmarebisaTvis; saqonels, romelic Semozidulia qveyanaSi gadasamuSaveblad sabaJo kontroliT; saqonels, Sesyiduls
203 qveynis sagareo savaWro organizaciebis mier da miwodebuls uSualod mesame qveynisaTvis; eqsportSi: mocemul qveyanaSi warmoebul saqonels, wina periodSi mocemul qveyanaSi sabaJo kontroliT gadasamuSaveblad Semozidul da mimdinare periodSi gazidul saqonels (reeqsports) da a.S. ,,uxilavi vaWroba~ gamoiyeneba da asaxavs iseT gadasaxadebs da Semosavlebs (transportis dazRveva, safostosatelegrafo da satelefono kavSirebi turizmi, kulturuli gacvlebi, sakomisio operaciebi), romlebsac kavSiri ara aqvT eqsport-importis operaciebTan. saerTaSoriso tranziti iseTi saqonlis gadazidvaa, romlis gamgzavni da mimRebi punqtebi imyofeba mocemuli qveynis farglebs gareT. Tu saqoneli Semodis sabaJo sawyobSi da aqedan egzavneba mimReb qveyanas, maSin aseT gadazidvas ewodeba arapirdapiri tranziti, xolo Tu saqoneli ar Semodis sabaJos sawyobSi da sabaJos uzrunvelyofiT pirdapir egzavneba myidvel qveyanas, maSin aseTi gadazidva pirdapiri saerTaSoriso tranzitia. 21sagareo vaWrobaSi saqarTvelo iyenebs misi aRricxvis `zogad meTods�, rac niSnavs, rom saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvis kriteriumia mis mier qveynis sabaJo sazRvris gadakveTa. eqsportSi igulisxmeba rogorc erovnuli warmoSobis produqciis gatana, ise importirebuli saqonlis reeqsporti. importSi igulisxmeba qveyanaSi produqciis Semotana, romelic gamiznulia saboloo moxmarebisaTvis an Semdgomi eqsportirebisaTvis. eqsporti aRricxulia FOB, anu eqsportiori qveynis frankosazRvris fasebSi. importi aRricxulia CIF, anu importiori qveynis franko-sazRvris fasebSi, rac niSnavs, rom saqonlis fasSi CarTulia importiori qveynis sazRvramde misi transportirebisa da dazRvevis xarjebi. informaciis ZiriTadi wyaroa saqarTvelos finansTa saministros Semosavlebis
204
205
samsaxuris satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebi, romlebsac emateba monacemebi im saqonlis eqsport-importis Sesaxeb, romlebic ar fiqsirdeba qveynis sabaJo sazRvarze (eleqtroenergia, bunebrivi airi). partniori qveynis dadgenis kriteriumebia: importis dros – gamomgzavni qveyana, eqsportis dros – saboloo daniSnulebis qveyana. saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvisaTvis gamoiyeneba `sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo nomenklatura (ses sn)~, romelic agebulia saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistemis safuZvelze. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi saerTaSoriso saqmianobis mniSvnelovani kategoriaa, romelic gulisxmobs erTi qveynis ekonomikis rezidenti erTeulis mier sxva qveynis rezidenti sawarmos marTvaSi kontrolis an mniSvnelovani gavlenis qonas. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis monacemTa formireba xorcieldeba: sawarmoTa sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis kvartaluri da wliuri statistikuri gamokvlevis, privatizaciisa da saqarTveelos komerciuli bankebis angariSgebis safuZvelze.
saqonelbrunvaSi mxolod is saqonelia (patentebisa da licenziebis yidva-gayidva, satransporto saSualebaTa remonti, samSeneblo samuSaoebis xelmZRvaneloba da Catareba da a.S.), romlebsac nivTobrivi forma gaaCniaT. amasTan erTad sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvaSi ar CairTveba is Semoziduli an gaziduli saqoneli (humanitaruli daxmarebis gziT usasyidlod saqonlis Semozidva-gazidva, Senatanebi gaeros teqnikuri daxmarebis fondSi, gamofenebze an gaziduli saqoneli da sxv.), romelic komerciul xasiaTs ar atarebs, e.i. ar icvleba valutaze. statistikam unda Seiswavlos sagareo vaWrobis moculoba, dinamika da struqtura. saqonelbrunvis fulad moculobas axasiaTebs eqsportimportis jami gamosaxuli fulad formaSi. amitom statistikis amocanaa eqsportisa da importis Sesaxeb Sesabamisi organizaciebidan statistikuri masalis Segroveba, damuSaveba da analizi. saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemebiT:
sagareo vaWrobis statistika Sromis danawilebis safuZvelze saxelmwifoTa ganviTarebul sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa Soris wamyvani adgili sagareo vaWrobas uWiravs. sagareo vaWroba eqsport-importis wesiT qveynebs Soris saqonlis urTierTgacvlaa urTierTxelsayrel pirobebSi yidva-gayidvis gziT. sagareo vaWrobis Sedegebi sxvadasxva maCvenebelTa sistemiT gamoisaxeba, romelTagan yvelaze mniSvnelovania RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi. am, ukanasknels miekuTvneba sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunva anu eqsport-importis wesiT gaziduli da Semoziduli saqonlis Rirebuleba. saqonelbrunvaSi CaiTvleba is saqoneli, romelic xasiaTdeba saqonlis nivTobrivi formiT da fulze gacvlis niSniT. amitom
sagareo vaWroba ( milioni aSS dolari) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
საგარეო სავაჭრო ბრუნვა საქონლის რეგისტრირებული ექსპორტი (FOB) საქონლის რეგისტრირებული იმპორტი (CIF) საგარეო ვაჭრობის სალდო
3355.4
4613.0
6447.3 7800.0 5500.1
2010 ianvarimaisi 2434.5
865.5
936.0
1232.4
607.5
2490.0 3677.0 5214.9
1495.5
1130.6
6304.6 4369.5
1827.0
-1624.5 -2741.0 -3982.5 -4809.1 -3238.9
-1219.5
206 2009 wels saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvam 5,500.1 mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, rac 2008 wlis Sesabamis maCvenebelze 29.5 procentiT naklebia. amavdroulad, savaWro deficiti 3,238.9 mln. aSS dolars gautolda, rac wina wlis maCvenebelze 32.7 procentiT naklebia. saqonlis registrirebuli eqsporti, 1,130.6 mln. aSS dolari, 2008 wlis maCvenebels 24.4 procentiT CamorCeba, xolo saqonlis registrirebuli importi wina wlis maCvenebelze 30.7 procentiT naklebia da 4,369.5 mln. aSS dolars utoldeba. importirebuli saqonlis 40.7 procenti samomxmarebloa, 12.5 procenti _ sainvesticio da 45.7 procenti Sualeduri moxmarebis saqoneli. 2009 wels eqsportirebul saqonels Soris feroSenadnobebi tradiciulad pirvel pozicias ikavebs, Tumca am produqciis eqsporti wina welTan SedarebiT 51.3 procentiT naklebi iyo. meore poziciazea oqro, romlis eqsportis wliuri zrdis tempi 16.1 procents Seadgenda. oqros eqsportis zrda oqroze saerTaSoriso fasebis matebiT iyo ganpirobebuli. oqros saeqsporto fasi 2009 wels wina welTan SedarebiT 38.2 procentiT iyo gazrdili. mesame pozicia msubuqi avtomobilebis eqsports eWira, romelic wina welTan SedarebiT 30.8 procentiT Semcirda. 2009 wlis eqsportSi aRiniSneboda garkveuli pozitiuri tendenciebi. kerZod, Txilis eqsporti 2.2 -jer gaizarda wina welTan SedarebiT da meoTxe pozicia daikava. Semdeg poziciaze iyo mineraluri sasuqebi. 2009 wels aRsaniSnavia citrusovani xilis eqsportis mkveTri zrda. am periodSi gatanili saqonlis Rirebuleba oTxjer aRemateboda wina wlis eqsports. citrusebis eqsportis 75 procenti ukrainaSi ganxorcielda, 16 procenti _ azerbaijanSi, 7 procenti _ belorusSi, xolo danarCeni sxvadasxva qveynebSi. 2008 wlis meoTxe kvartalidan saqarTvelos eqsportSi dafiqsirda axali dasaxelebebi, cocxali cxovelebi, cxvrebi da msxvilfexa rqosani pirutyvi.
207 cocxali cxvrebis wliurma eqsportma 2009 wels 17 milioni aSS dolari Seadgina, rac wina wlis Sesabamis maCvenebelTan SedarebiT 16-jer metia. cxvrebis ZiriTadi wili saudis arabeTSia eqsportirebuli. rac Seexeba msxvilfexa rqosan pirutyvs, 2009 wlis ganmavlobaSi 16.9 milioni aSS dolaris Rirebulebis saqonelis eqsporti ganxorcielda, umetes wilad azerbaijanSi. saqonlis importis aRniSnuli ganawileba sakmaod stabiluria bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi. Sualeduri moxmarebis saqonelSi wamyvani adgili uWiravs navTobproduqtebs da bunebriv airs. mniSvnelovani wili aqvs agreTve samSeneblo masalebs, xorbals da fqvils. qarTuli eqsportis 42.5 procenti samrewvelo saqonlisgan Sedgeba, raSic wamyvani adgili feroSenadnobebs, avtomobilebis reeqsports da azotovan sasuqebs uWiravs. saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva 2003 wlidan mudmivad mzardi tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda. agvistos saomari moqmedebebis, da Semdgom, msoflio finansuri krizisis gavleniT, 2008 wlis mesame kvartalidan dafiqsirda kvartaluri, xolo Semdgom wliuri vardna, rogorc registrirebuli eqsportis, aseve importis SemTxvevaSi. 2009 wels aRdga kvartaluri zrdis tendencia, magram wliuri zrdis maCveneblebi kvlav uaryofiTi iyo (gamonaklisi iyo registrirebuli eqsporti 2009 wlis meoTxe kvartalSi sadac dafiqsirda dadebiTi zrdis tempi 22.0 procenti. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom wina wlis Sesabamisi periodidan eqsporti sagrZnoblad Semcirebuli iyo). eqsportis vardna 2009 wels, msoflio finansuri krizisis gamo saerTaSoriso fasebis klebiT iyo ganpirobebuli. fasebi gansakuTrebiT Semcirebuli iyo ZiriTad qarTul saeqsporto saqonelze, Sav da ferad liTonebze. importis klebaze yvelaze didi gavlena msubuqi avtomobilebis gayidvebis Semcirebam moaxdina. wina welTan SedarebiT msubuqi avtomobilebis importi 64.0 procentiT iyo Semcirebuli. gansakuTrebiT daiklo axali, ZviradRirebuli
208
209
avtomobilebis importma. importis klebaSi agreTve mniSvnelovani wvlili Seitana navTobproduqtebze saerTaSoriso fasebis vardnam. navTobproduqtebis importis Rirebuleba 2009 wels wina welTan SedarebiT 27.2 procentiT naklebi iyo, amavdroulad importirebuli saqonlis raodenoba wina wlisas 13.4 procentiT aWarbebda. sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis dinamikis gasazomavad iyeneben indeqsebs. isini gviCvenebs movlenebis ganviTarebas drosa da sivrceSi. Tu movlenebs, am SemxTvevaSi sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvas, ganvixilavT droSi, kerZod wlebis mixedviT, indeqsebi gveqneba individualuri, jgufuri da saerTo. calkeuli saxis saqonlsi (manqanebis, saTbobis, xorcis, karaqis da sxva) fizikuri moculobis cvalebadobas eqsportSi an importSi gviCvenebs individualuri indeqsebi, romelic gamoisaxeba formuliT:
q1 q0
iq sadac
iq
- ama Tu im konkretuli saqonlis fizikuri
da
q0
I qp
saerTo saqonelbrunvis
I qp
q p 1
1
gaizomeba
saangariSo
periodis
SefardebiT
sabaziso
periodis
p0
sadac
p1
da
p0
saqonlis
1
1 0
rogorc vxedavT saqonelbrunvis saerTo indeqsi asaxavs ori faqtoris (saqonlis fizikuri moculoba da saqonlis erTeulis fasi) zemoqmedebis Sedegs. saqonelbrunvis mxolod fizikuri moculobis gavlenas asaxavs fizikuri indeqsi
Iq
q p q p 1
0
0
0
saqonelbrunvis fizikuri moculobis indeqsi SegviZlia gaviangariSoT, agreTve, saqonlis fizikuri moculobis individualuri an jgufuri indeqsebisa da saqonelbrunvis moculobis safuZvelze, rasac ewodeba saqonelbrunvis fizikuri moculobis saSualo ariTmetikuli indeqsi:
mocemuli saqonlis fizikuri moculobaa
indeqsi
q p q p 0
Iq
Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso wlebSi. Tu gvaqvs ara erTi saxeobis saqoneli, aramed saqonlis jgufebi (magaliTad, manqanebi, mowyobilobani da satransporto saSualebebis jgufi an kvebis produqtebis jgufi), maSin maTi fizikuri moculobis dinamika eqsportSi an importSi gaizomeba jgufuri indeqsebiT.
0
erTeulis fasia Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi:
moculobis indeqsia;
q1
q
saqonelbrunvasTan
i q p q p q
iq
sadac, individualuri
iq
q p q p 1
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
-
iq
saqonlis
q1 q0
an
fizikuri
moculobis
jgufuri
indeqsebia
210
211
q0 p0
- wona, anu calkeuli saxis saqonlis mixedviT
saqonelbrunva sabaziso periodSi. Tu
saSualoariTmetikul
mniSvnelobas indeqss:
miviRebT
Iq
0
0
CavsvavT
saqonelbrunvis fizikuri
q1 q0 p0
q q p
indeqsSi
0
q p q p 1
0
0
0
iq -s
moculobis
davuSvaT rom, gvaqvs ori jgufis saqoneli, jgufuri indeqsebia: I jgufis saqonelze - 1,02, xolo II jgufis saqonelze - 1,19, es imas niSnavs, rom eqsportSi I jgufis saqonlis fizikuri moculoba gaizarda 2%-iT, xolo II jgufis saqonlis fizikuri moculoba - 19%-iT. jgufuri indeqsebis safuZvelze SegviZlia gaviangariSoT saqonelbrunvis fizikuri moculobis cvalebadoba saSualoariTmetikuli indeqsis daxmarebiT:
I
i q p q p q
0
0
0
0
ise, rom Tu sabaziso periodis saqonelbrunvis moculobam eqsportSi I jgufis saqonelze Seadgina 48000 lari, xolo II jgufis saqonelze 38000 lari, maSin indeqsi miiRebs saxes:
I
i q p q p
1.17
q
0
0
0
0
(1.02 48000) (1.19 38000) 48000 38000
rogorc Cans, mTliani eqsportis saqonelbrunvis fizikuri moculoba gaizarda 17%-iT. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa mniSvnelovani maCveneblebi eqsporti da importi. eqsporti ewodeba samamulo samrewvelo da sasoflosameurneo warmoebis nawarmis gazidvas sazRvargareT yidvagayidvis gziT. masSi Sedis, agreTve, ucxoeTidan importis wesiT Semoziduli saqoneli, romelmac gaiara samamulo warmoebiT Sesabamisi gadamuSaveba da isev romelime ucxo qveyanas mieyida. sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi saqonlis gadamuSavebad iTvleba iseTi damuSaveba, romlis Sedegad is Rebulobs axal Tvisebriobas. samamulo saqonels miakuTvneben mxolod im importul produqcias, romelmac gadamuSavebis Sedegad Rirebuleba moitana Sesasyidi fasis 50%-ze metad, amitom statistikurad dafasoeba, SefuTva, garegani saxis gaumjobeseba da sxva operaciebi gadamuSavebaSi ar CaiTvleba. eqsportSi Sedis agreTve is importuli saqoneli, romelic yovelgvari gadamuSavebis gareSe ,,pirdapiri reeqsportis~ saxiT gadis ucxoeTSi gasasyidlad. zogjer ekonomikurad mizanSewonilia romelime qveyanaSi saqonlis Sesyidva da importis gareSe pirdapir im qveynisadmi miwodeba, romlis winaSe garkveuli valdebuleba gaaCnia mocemul qveyanas. aseTma operaciam miiRo ,,arapirdapiri reeqsportis~ saxelwodeba da Sesabamisi saqonlis Rirebulebac adidebs eqsportis saerTo saqonelbrunvis moculobas. eqsportis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa statistikur monacemTa urTierTSesadarisobis uzrunvelyofa. gansakuTrebul siZneles warmoadgens eqsportis jamobrivi maCveneblebis urTierTSedareba. aq mravali qveyana sagareo vaWrobaze saerTo moculobis dasadgenad gamoiyenebs or sistemas; ,,specialursa~ da ,,saerTos~. ,,specialuri~ sistemiT sagareo vaWrobaSi Seitaneba samamulo warmoebis saqoneli, agreTve, qveyanaSi sabaJo kontrolis qveS gadasamuSaveblad Semoziduli da ,,nacionalizebuli~ saqoneli.
212
213
,,saerTo~ sistemiT sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis gaangariSebisas ,,specialuri~ sistemiT zemoTCamoTvlil saqonels daemateba ,,Tavisufali zonidan gaziduli saqonlis Rirebuleba~. ,,Tavisufali zona~ is teritoriaa, sadac sagareo savaWro operaciebi dasaSvebia sabaJo kontrolis, sabaJo gadasaxadebis gareSe. statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa eqsportis dinamikis, anu misi droSi, wlebis mixedviT cvalebadobis gazomva, ra mizniTac iyeneben rogorc individualur, aseve saerTo indeqsebs. individualuri indeqsebiT zomaven calkeuli konkretuli dasaxelebis saqonlis fizikuri moculobis cvalebadobas, xolo saerTo indeqsebidan gvaqvs sami urTierTdakavSirebuli indeqsi:
eqsportis
saerTo
fizikuri moculobis indeqsi
Rirebulebis
Iq
I qp eqsportis
da eqsportis fasebis indeqsi
Ip maT Soris kavSiri, rogorc statistikis Teoriidanaa cnobili, ase gamoisaxeba:
I qp I q I p
q p q p
anu
sadac,
q1
1
1
0
0
da
q0
q p q p q p q p 1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
- eqsportSi gagzavnili saqonlis
fizikuri moculobaa saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi.
p1
da
p0
- saeqsporto produqciis erTeulis fasia
saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi.
importi ewodeba saqonlis Semozidvas ucxo qveynebidan yidva-gayidvis gziT. saqonlis imports safuZvlad udevs mravali faqtori, romelTagan mniSvnelovania: ekonomikuri efeqtianoba, drois mogeba, msoflios masStabiT mecnierebisa da teqnikis miRwevebis danergva samamulo warmoebaSi da sxva. importi Sedgeba im saqonlisagan, romelzedac samamulo warmoeba an ar arsebobs, an kidev arsebobs, magram misi warmoebis moculoba ver akmayofilebs moTxovnilebas. importis ekonomikuri efeqtianoba gulisxmobs imas, rom Sesabamisi saxis saqonlis xarisxi maRalia da amasTan erTad misi SeZenisa da transportirebis xarjebi naklebia samamulo warmoebis saqonlis Sesabamis danaxarjebze. rig SemTxvevebSi am pirobis garda unda gaviTvaliswinoT, agreTve, drois faqtori, romlis mogebasac didi sameurneo mniSvneloba aqvs. es xdeba maSin, roca ama Tu im saxis produqciaze moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis aucilebloba da samamulo warmoebis dawyeba droSi erTmaneTs mniSvnelovnad scildeba. am SemTxvevaSi samrewvelo da sasoflo-sameurneo warmoebis produqciis an kidev saxalxo moxmarebis saqonlis importi gamarTlebulia da mniSvnelovan sameurneo efeqts iZleva drois mogebis TvalsazrisiT. didi mniSvneloba eniWeba, agreTve, moZvelebuli da moralurad gacveTili warmoebis saSualebebis Secvlas importirebuli Tanamedrove, msoflio standartebis Sesabamisi maRali warmadobis manqana-iaraRebiT, rac mniSvnelovnad amaRlebs samamulo warmoebis ekonomikur efeqtianobas da xalxis Sesabamisi samamulo warmoebis mier gamoSvebuli saqonliT dakmayofilebis dones. saqonlis importi SeiZleba gamoiwvios, agreTve, zogierTi, sruliad SemTxveviTi faqtoris zemoqmedebam, rac iwvevs saqonlis mwvave deficits ama Tu im drois monakveTSi. aseT faqtorebs miekuTvneba araxelsayreli bunebriv-klimaturi pirobebis gamo mousavlianoba sasoflo-sameurneo savargulebze, wyaldidobis, xanZari da zogierTi sxva stiqiuri movlena, politikuri situacia mocemul qveyanaSi da a.S.
214 importi warmoiSoba, agreTve, saerTaSoriso specilizaciisa da kooperirebis ganviTarebiT. Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis bazaze mocemul qveyanaSi viTardeba im produqciis warmoeba, romlisTvisac arsebobs xelsayreli bunebriv-klimaturi da ekonomikuri pirobebi. amitom xdeba sxva saxis saqonlis importi da Sesabamis moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofileba. statistika swavlobs importis saerTo moculobas, struqturas, dinamikas da sxva ekonomikur da araekonomikur faqtorebTan mWidro urTierTkavSirs. importis moculobas statistika swavlobs ,,sagareo vaWrobis erTiani sasaqonlo nomenklaturis~ mixedviT Sesadar fasebSi, ris Sesaxebac saaRricxvo-statistikur informacias agrovebs saTanado sagareo vaWrobis organizaciebisa da gaerTianebebis meSveobiT. importis registracia xdeba ucxo qveynidan saqonlis sazRvarze gadmotanis momentSi, ris Sedegadac is iTvleba mocemuli qveynis materialuri simdidris Semadgenel nawilad. importis struqtura eqsportis analogiuria. igi ganixileba im ucxo qveynebis mixedviT, romelTa bazarzedac SeiZineba saqoneli. TiToeuli qveynisaTvis ,,sagareo vaWrobis erTiani sasaqonlo nomenklatura~ ganixileba mowodebis kategoriebis (kliringi, Caketili valuta, Tavisufali valuta da a.S.) mixedviT. yvelaferi es winaswar dadebuli savaWro xelSekrulebebisa da SeTanxmebebis safuZvelze dgindeba rogorc saprognozo ise faqtobrivi monacemebis mixedviT. importis struqtura xasiaTdeba sxvadasxva niSnebiT. maT Soris statistikaSi gavrcelebulia sasaqonlo (calkeuli saxis saqonlis sasaqonlo gjufebis, sasursaTo da arasasursaTo saqonlis da a.S.) struqturis, teritoriuli struqturis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT importirebuli saqonlis Seswavla rogorc naturalur-nivTobrivi, ise RirebulebiTi formiT. es ukanaskneli maCvenebeli saSualebas iZleva gaviangariSoT importis dinamika (eqsportis saindeqso meTodis msgavsad), misi zrdisa da matebis tempebi wlebis mixedviT.
215 statistika importis struqturaSi Semozidul da gazidul saqonelsa da mimwodebel qveynebs ajgufebs ori niSniT: ,,qveyana-saqoneli~ da ,,saqoneli-qveyana~. aq kargad Cans, saqonelTa is jgufebi, romelTa mixedviT mocemuli qveyana aris sufTa anu netto-eqsportiori da piriqiT, bruttoeqsportiori da brutto-importiori. es maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba vaWrobis marTvis, prognozirebisa da regulirebis saqmeSi.
sagareo vaWrobis fasebis statistika fasi sagareo vaWrobis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani kategoriaa. is gadamwyvet rols asrulebs qveynis Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebaSi monawileobis maqsimaluri efeqitanobis miRwevis amocanis gadawyvetis saqmeSi. fasebis done da dinamika sagareo vaWrobis Sesabamis organizaciebis yoveldRiuri saqmianobis areSia saeqsporto-saimporto operaciebis ganxoricielebasTan dakavSirebiT. maTi meSveobiT xdeba sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa organizacia, marTva da regulireba. fasebis meSveobiT wydeba sagareo vaWrobis ekonomikuri efeqtianobis gansazRvra, eqsportis, importis da maTi RirebulebiT formaSi kontrolis, saqonelbrunvis donis, struqturisa da dinamikis, msoflio bazris da mis calkeul seqtorebSi saqonlis vaWrobis momgebianobis da sxva metad mniSvnelovan amocanaTa gadaWra. saqonlis fasebis Sesaxeb yvelaze sarwmuno informaciis wyaroa sagareo savaWro gaerTianebebsa da ucxour kontragentebs Soris savaWro garigebani yidva-gayidvis Sesaxeb (kontraqtebi). magram sakontraqto fasebi xSirad ixreba faqtobrivi fasebisagan, rac gamowveulia sakontaqto garigebebsa da faqtobrivad saqonlis warmoebis dros Soris gansxvavebiT. gavrcelebulia erTwliani, xuTwliani, aTwliani
216 da meti xnis savaWro garigebani, romlis ganmavlobaSic icvleba warmoebis pirobebi da saqonlis fasis Camoyalibebaze moqmedi saSinao da sagareo faqtorebi. amis gamo xSirad mxareTa Soris urTierTSeTanxmebiT wesdeba saqonlis sakontraqto sabaziso sortis fasi. imave kontraqtiT ganisazRvreba saqonlis xarisxobrivi maCveneblebis sabaziso sortisagan gadaxrebis sazRvrebi. amis mixedviT saqonlis faqtobrivi miwodebisas ganisazRvreba realuri saangariSsworebo fasi. sakontaqto fasebis registraciisas statistika iyenebs mTliani dakvirvebis saxeobas, rac aucilebelia eqsportimportis operaciebis regulirebisa da operatiuli marTvisaTvis. sakontraqto fasebis cvalebadobis qveS gulisxmoben mxareTa urTierTmolaparakebis bazaze Zvelis nacvlad axali fasebis dadgenas. statistika swavlobs sagareo vaWrobis fasebis dones (sakontraqto fasebis sidides), maT dinamikas wlebis mixedviT da misi ganmsazRvreli faqtorebis gavlenis xarisxs. sagareo vaWrobis fasebis done ganisazRvreba savaWro garigebebiT da aisaxeba sakontraqto molaparakebebSi. sakontraqto fasebis dadgenisas saqonlis myidvelebi da gamyidvelebi iTvaliswineben msoflio fasebis dones. saqonlis msoflio fasis qveS igulisxmeba bazarze realizebuli saqonlis internacionaluri Rirebulebis warmoebis internacionaluri fasi) fuladi gamoxatuleba. amas garda fasis done yovelTvis ganisazRvreba miwodebis bazisis mixedviT. sagareo vaWrobaSi miwodebis bazisi ewodeba saqonlis miReba-Cabarebis geografiul adgils, sadac saqonelze sakuTrebis ufleba gamyidvelidan gadadis myidvelze. msoflio sagareo vaWrobis praqtikaSi gavrcelebulia sakontraqt o fasebis dadgena sxvadasxva bazisze. maT Soris gvaqvs frankosazRvari an saqonlis mimwodeblis an mimRebis posti. es imas niSnavs, rom internacionaluri Rirebulebis garda fasebi moicavs an gagzavnis, portSi gemis portamde saqonlis
217 gadazidvis, an kidev daniSnulebis portamde mitanis xarjebs. saqonelbrunvis donisa da dinamikis Sesadarisobis uzrunvelsayofad sxvadasxva sabaziso sakontraqto fasebi gadaiyvaneba miwodebis erTian bazisSi. praqtikulad fasebi gadaiyvaneba gamgzavnis an mimRebis franko-sazRvris sabaziso fasSi, rac sagareo vaWrobis RirebulebiT maCveneblebs xdis urTierTSesadariss. statistika angariSobs sxvadasxva saqonlis saSualo fass Semdegi formulis gamoyenebiT:
p
qp q
p - saeqsporto sadac, erTeulis individualuri fasia;
q
an
saimporto
saqonlis
- eqsportis an importis fizikuri moculobaa,
p - saqonlis saSualo fasia. magaliTi: davuSvaT, rom eqsportSi gagzavnili rkinis madnis moculobam Sedagina 1000000 tona. es moculoba miewoda sam momxmarebels. pirvels, 300000 tona, meores 500000 tona da mesames 200000 tona. kontraqtis mixedviT pirveli momxmareblis madanSi rkinis Semcveloba Seadgenda 50%-s, meore momxmareblis madanSi - 55%-s, xolo mesame myidvelis madanSi 60%-s. momxmarebeli ixdis rkinis Semcvelobis erTeulisaTvis 2 lars. maSasadame, pirvelma momxmarebelma erTi tona rkinis madnisaTvis unda gadaixados 100 lari, meorem 110 lari, xolo mesamem 120 lari. am monacemebis safuZvelze erTi tona rkinis madnis saSualo fasi Seadgens:
218
219
p
qp (300000 100) (500000 110) (200000 120) 300000 400000 300000 q
109
lars. sagareo vaWrobis, maT Soris eqsportisa da importis fasebis dinamika gaizomeba individualuri da saerTo (agregatuli) indeqsebis gamoyenebiT. individualuri indeqsi zomavs calkeuli konkretuli dasaxelebis saqonlis erTeulis fasis dinamikas Semdegi formulis gamoyenebiT:
sadac
p1
ip
- saqonlis erTeulis fasia saangariSo da
calkeuli jgufis saqonlis saSualo fasis indeqsi
ip
gamoisaxeba formuliT:
sadac
q p q p q1
1
1
1
0
da
q0
mocemuli jgufis saqonlis fizikuri
moculobaa saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi.
I eqsp.saS.f asi I imp.saS.fa si
I vaWr.pir.
I imp.saS.fa si
- fasis individualuri indeqsia;
sabaziso periodebSi.
Ip
I vaWr.pir.
I eqsp.saS.f asi
p0
da
statistika swavlobs Tu rogori unda iyos sagareo vaWrobis pirobebi saangariSo periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT. aseTi pirobebis gasarkvevad angariSoben ,,vaWrobis pirobebis~ indeqss Semdegi formuliT:
sadac,
p1 p0
ip
,vaWrobis pirobebis~ indeqsi
- ,,vaWrobis pirobebis~ indeqsia;
- eqsportis saSualo fasis indeqsi; - importis saSualo fasis indeqsi.
mocemul indeqsebze ar moqmedebs sagareo vaWrobis saldo dadebiTia Tu uaryofiTi. mas ver cvlis, agreTve, valutis kursis cvalebadoba da amitom is Sesadarisia sxvadasxva qveynebisaTvis da gamoiyeneba saTanado saanalizo miznebisaTvis. Tu ,,vaWrobis pirobebis~ indeqsi erTis tolia, maSin ityvian, rom ,,vaWrobis pirobebi~ saangariSo periodSi iseTive iyo, rogorc sabaziso periodSi, Tu erTze naklebia, maSin saangariSo periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT gvqonda araxelsayreli ,,vaWrobis pirobebi ~, xolo Tu indeqsi metia erTze, maSin mocemul periodSi gacilebiT xelsayreli ,,vaWrobis pirobebi~ gvqonia. magaliTad, Tu ,,vaWrobis pirobebis~ indeqsma ama Tu im periodSi mocemuli qveynisaTvis Seadgina 1,03, maSin ,,vaWrobis pirobebis~ gaumjobesebis Sedegad mocemuli qveyana sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis yovel 100 savaluto erTeulze Rebulobs damatebiT mogebas 3 savaluto erTeuliT an piriqiT, maSin wagebas Rebulobs yovel 100 savaluto erTeulze 3 savaluto erTeuls.
220
221 geografiuli ganlagebis statistika
sagareo vaWrobis da sxva sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa geografiuli (teritoriuli) ganlagebis qveS igulisxmeba qveynis SigniT da sazRvargareT ekonomikurad aqtiuri raionebis teritoriuli ganlagebis upiratesobaTa gamoyeneba sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa maqsimaluri ekonomikuri efeqtianobis miRebis mizniT. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa teritoriuli ganlagebis ekonomikur safuZvels warmoadgens sawarmoo ZalTa ganlageba da aqedan gamomdinare optimaluri saeqsporto da saimporto partniorebis SerCeva. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa swori geografiuli ganlageba xels uwyobs ucxo saxelmwifoebTan ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis Semdegom gaRrmavebas, saqonelbrunvis teritoriuli ganawilebis gaumjobesebas qveynis bunebrivi ekonomikuri Taviseburebebis gaTvaliswinebiT da sxva metad mniSvnelovani amocanebis gadawyvetas. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa swori geografiuli ganlagebis obieqturi winamZRvaria saxelmwifopartniorebis teritoriuli mdebareoba, maTi ganviTarebis bunebrivi pirobebi, ekonomikis yvela dargSi (mrewvelobis, soflis meurneoba, mecnierul-teqnikuri progresi, ganaTleba, kultura da a.S.) miRwevebi, mdgomareoba mosoflio saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTobaTa sistemaSi da sxva. sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa teritorituli ganlagebis sakiTxebis marTvisa da organizaciis saqmeSi gamoiyeneba ekonomikuri geografiis fuZemdebluri debulebani sawarmoo ZalTa ganlagebis, Sromis sazogadoebrivi danawilebis, ekonomikis Sigaraionul dargTa SeTanawyobis, agreTve, Sigaraionuli da saraionTaSoriso ekonomikuri kavSirebis Sesaxeb. statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa geografiis Seswavlis saqmeSi mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
1. Seiswavlos TiToeul qveyanasTan ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa moculoba rogorc eqsport-importis, ise mecnierul-teqnikuri progresis, safinanso-savalutro, sakredito da sxva saxis saqmianobis sferoSi; 2. daadginos eqsport-importis saldo da sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa sxva saxis saqmianobis efeqtianoba saxelmwifo-partniorebisa da geografiuli raionebis mixedviT; 3. Seiswavlos ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa struqtura da dinamika geografiuli adgilmdebareobisa da satransporto kavSirurTierTobaTa gaTvaliswinebiT. ucxo saxelmwifoebTan sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa Sesaxeb swori monacemebis Segroveba da damuSaveba statistikuri saqmianobis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani sferoa. am mimarTulebiT did mniSvnelobas iZens eqsportimportis da sxva saxis sagareo-ekonomikis urTierTobaTa statistikuri Seswavlis meTodologiis damuSaveba geografiuli ganlagebis mixedviT. aq gamoiyofa oTxi jgufis qveyana: pirveli - damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa kavSiris qveynebi; meore - evropis ganviTarebadi qveynebi; mesame ganviTarebuli kapitalisturi qveynebi da meoTxe - aziisa da afrikis ganviTarebadi saxelmwifoebi. saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistikam SeimuSava importisa da eqsportis teritoriuli ganawilebis sami meTodi. pirveli meTodis gamomyenebeli qveynebi saeqsporto saqonels anawileben daniSnulebis (moxmarebis), xolo saimporto saqonels warmoSobis (warmoebis) punqtebis mixedviT. am meTods qveynebis Zalian didi nawili gamoiyenebs. misi universaloba masSi mdgomareobs, rom is moicavs yvela qveyana-mwarmoebelsa da qveyana-momxmarebels. meore meTodis gamomyenebeli saxelmwifoebi eqsport-importis saqonels anawileben mxolod kontraqtze xelis momweri qveynebis mixedviT. aseTi qveynebis ricxvi SedarebiT mcirea, vinaidan statistikur aRricxvaSi warmoiSoba rigi problelmebi. Znelia winaswar sagareo
222
223
ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa geografiuli ganlageba ganisazRvros kontraqtze xelmoweris adgilis mixedviT. gamyidveli da myidveli kontraqtze xelis moweris adgilad irCevs maTTvis mosaxerxebel punqts. aseTi punqti SeiZleba iyos saqonlis gamyidveli, an mesame romelime qveyana, romelsac araviTari kavSiri ara aqvs savaWro xelSekrulebasTan. aseTi winaswar ganusazRvreloba gavlenas axdens sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa geografiuli ganlagebis prognozirebaze. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa geografiuli ganlagebis mesame meTodis gamomyenebeli qveynebi urTierTobas teritoriul WrilSi ageben savaWro xelSekrulebaTa mixedviT. savaWro xelSekrulebani daideba savaWro SeTanxmebaTa safuZvelze da aisaxeba geografiul ganlagebaSi.
saerTaSoriso ekonomikur valdebulebaTa statistika sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirurTierTobebi rogorc wesi aigeba saxelmwifoTa Soris garkveul SeTanxmebebze. es SeTanxmebani ori saxisaa: savaWro da ekonomikuri. savaWro SeTanxmebani - saqonlis gacvlas exeba urTierTxelsayrel pirobebSi, xolo ekonomikuri mecnierul-teqnikur TanamSromlobas, specializaciisa da kooperirebis ganviTarebas, kreditebisa da sxva saxis sesxebis miRebas da a.S. savaWro da ekonomikur SeTanxmebebs erTmaneTTan mWidro urTierTkavSiri aqvT. ekonomikuri SeTanxmebebis realizacia Zalian xSirad aisaxeba savaWro SeTanxmebebSi. sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobebSi SeTanxmebani sxvadasxva saxisaa. savaWro SeTanxmebebs garda, romlebSiac saqonelbrunva aisaxeba uSualod, arsebobs sagadamxdelo SeTanxmebani, sakredito SeTanxmebani da a.S. sagadamxdelo SeTanxmebebSi aisaxeba urTierTsavaWro garigebebSi sxvadasxva
saxis gadasaxadebis pirobebi, xolo sakredito SeTanxmebani moicavs kreditis moculobas, procentebis ganakveTebs, kreditis ukan dabrunebis vadebs da sxva. SeTanxmebebis garda savaWro-politikur praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba, agreTve, savaWro xelSekruleba, romelSiac aisaxeba sabaJo gadasaxadebis sistema, gadazidvebis tarifebi da sxva. savaWro SeTanxmebisagan gansxvavebiT savaWro xelSekrulebaSi araa naCvenebi sasaqonlo nomenklatura, saqonelbrunvis moculoba da a.S. saerTaSoriso ekonomikur valdebulebaTa statistikis amocanebia raodenobrivad daaxasiaTos am valdebulebaTa realizaciis procesi, aCvenos maTi struqtura saxeobaTa mixedviT da dinamika wlebis mixedviT. am monacemebis safuZvelze statistika amuSavebs SefardebiT maCveneblebs, romelTa daxmarebiT warmoebs valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis kontroli vadebisa da kontraqtebis mixedviT. gansakuTrebiT did mniSvnelobas, ukanasknel periodSi, iZens grZelvadiani SeTanxmebebis Sesrulebis kontroli, rac statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa. saqonlis nomenklatura da asortimenti grZelvadian valdebulebaTa mixedviT wlebis mixedviT SeiZleba Seicvalos. es cvalebadobani formdeba yovelwliur erTobliv oqmebSi, romlebsac statistika iyenebs urTierTvaldebulebaTa Sesrulebis kontrolisa da SemowmebisaTvis. sagadamxdelo balansi sagadamxdelo balansi qveynis sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobaTa safinanso statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi. misi cneba pirvelad SemoRebul iqna jer kidev 1967 wels j. stiuartis mier. sagadamxdelo balansi mocemuli qveynis gare samyaros an safinanso urTierTobis amsaxveli dokumentia. am urTierTobebs gansazRvravs drois mocemul periodSi an momentSi qveynis mier
224 faqtobrivi gadasaxdelebi sxva qveynebis mimarT da sxva qveynebidan miRebuli Semosavlebi. sagadamxdelo balansi moicavs mimdinare da kapitalur operaciebs. mimdinare operaciebi moicavs savaWro, agreTve, ,,uxilav operaciaTa~ balansebs. savaWro balansSi aisaxeba eqsport-importis operaciebi, xolo ,,uxilav operaciebSi~ gadasaxdelebi da Semosulobani transportis, safosto, satelegrafo da satelefono momsaxurebis, turizmis, investiciebis, procentebis da dividendebis, kulturuli gacvlis da sxva dargebSi. ganviTarebadi qveynebis sagadamxdelo balansebSi didi xvedriTi wiliT gamoirCeva kapitaluri operaciebi anu investiciebi, rac niSnavs mogebis miRebis mizniT sxva qveynebis teritoriaze kapitaluri dabandebis gaRebas axali warmoebis mSeneblobis an moqmedis rekonstruqcia-gafarToebis mimarTulebiT. gaarCeven sami saxis investiciebs: xangrZlivi dabandebani warmoebis sferoSi, safinanso-sakredito saqmianoba da fasiani qaRaldebi, agreTve, inteleqtualuri (specialistebis momzadeba, mecnieruli an teqnikuri gamocdilebis gadacema da sxva). sagadasamxdelo balansis agebis principi mdgomareobs masSi, rom TviTeuli operacia tardeba ormagi Caweris wesiT. es imas niSnavs, rom operacia aisaxeba erTi angariSis kreditSi (dadebiTi niSniT), xolo meore angariSis - debetSi (uaryofiTi niSniT). mocemuli forma iZleva sagadasamxdelo balansis aqtiurobis an pasiurobis gamovlenis SesaZleblobas. aqtiuria is, Tu qveynis Semosavlebi aWarbebs gadasaxadebs, xolo pasiuria - Tu gadasaxadebi sxva qveynebis mimarT aWarbebs sxva qveynebidan Semosavlebs. pasiuri balansis SemTxvevaSi izrdeba sagareo vali, ecema erovnuli valutis kursi, mcirdeba oqros maragebi da a.S. amitom sagadamxdelo balansis wonasworobis miRweva qveynis ekonomikisa da savaluto-safinanso mdgomareobis gajansaRebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani winapirobaa.
225 magaliTad saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis monacemebiT 2005-2009 wlis monacemebiT saqarTvelos sagadamxdelo balansi ase gamoiyureba:
226
227
Tema 10. erovnul angariSTa sistema 9erovnuli angariSebis sistema (eas) erovnul ekonomikaSi warmoebis, Semosavlebis formirebis, misi ganawilebis, gadanawilebisa da gamoyenebis, nakadebisa da balansebis maCvenebelTa logikurad Tanamimdevrul, saerTaSoriso doneze SeTanxmebul angariSebisa da cxrilebis sistemas warmoadgens. igi moicavs instituciur seqtorebs Soris (m.S. sazRvargareTTan) ekonomikuri operaciebis maCvenebelebis am angariSebsa da cxrilebSi aRricxvas. eas-Si aRiricxeba drois standartul monakveTebSi – kvartalSi, weliwadSi qveynis ekonomikis mimdinare da wina periodebTan SedarebiT ganviTarebis tendenciebis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi. amrigad, eas asaxavs erovnuli ekonomikis umTavres operaciebs ekonomikis seqtorebs Soris, danarCen msofliosTan ekonomikuri operaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, qveynis ekonomikaSi warmoebis, Semosavlebisa da maTi gamoyenebis ganxorcielebis Sedegebs. yvela es ekonomikuri operacia warmodgenilia Sesabamisi nakadebisa da sabalanso mdgomareobis damaxasiaTebeli cxrilebisa da makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis sistemis saxiT. eas mTavari informaciuli instrumentia qveynis ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisa da misi ganxorcielebis efeqtianobis monitoringisaTvis. erovnuli angariSebis sistemas safuZvlad udevs qveynis ekonomikis mTlianobaSi warmodgenis principi, romelic amave dros danarCen msoflios mravalferovani saerTaSoriso operaciebiT ukavSirdeba. saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebis meTodur safuZvels warmoadgens gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis, evrokomisiis statistikuri samsaxuris, ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizaciis, msoflio bankisa da saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mier
228 rekomendebuli erovnul angariSTa 1993 wlis sistemis (SNA93) standartuli meTodologia. Sefasebebis principebi eas-Si ekonomikuri operaciebis aRricxva xdeba maTi ganxorcielebis momentisaTvis arsebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mimdinare sabazro fasebSi. ekonomikuri operaciebis aRricxva xdeba daricxvis meTodiT, ekonomikuri operacia fiqsirdeba im momentisaTvis, rodesac am operaciebis monawile subieqtTa Soris orive mxaris SeTanxmebiT warmoiqmna aqtivis miwodebisa da Sesabamisi kompensaciis urTierTvaldebulebebi, miuxedavad imisa, iyo Tu ara am momentSi es valdebulebebi praqtikulad ganxorcielebuli. mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gadayvana saqarTveloSi jerjerobiT warmoebs mxolod warmoebis mixedviT gaangariSebuli maCveneblebis mixedviT. ZiriTadi angariSebi saqonlisa da momsaxurebis angariSis resursebis nawilSi aisaxeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis importi da wminda gadasaxadebi (gadasaxadebs minus subsidiebi), xolo gamoyenebis nawilSi – Sualeduri moxmareba, saboloo moxmarebis xarjebi, ZiriTadi kapitalis formireba, sasaqonlo-materialuri maragebis cvlilebebi da eqsporti. formalurad, es angariSi warmodgenilia imgvarad, rom misi resursebisa da gamoyenebis mxareebi erTmaneTis tolia. warmoebis angariSi asaxavs uSualod warmoebis procesTan dakavSirebul operaciebs. eas-93-is aucilebeli moTxovnaa gaangariSebebSi instituciuri erTeulebis ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegebis sruli mocva. maT Soris sruli moculobiT gaiTvaliswineba statistikur aRricxvas dauqvemdebarebeli e. w. `daukvirvebadi ekonomikuri saqmianoba”. am principebidan gamomdinare, saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebi moicaven araformaluri (sakuTari moxmarebis an
229 gasayidad Sinameurneobebis kuTvnili arakorporirebuli warmoebis), faruli (gadasaxadebis gadaxdis Tavis aridebis mizniT) da arakanonieri warmoebis Sefasebebs. mTliani gamoSveba aris drois garkveuli periodis (ufro xSirad erTi wlis an kvartalis) ganmavlobaSi erovnuli ekonomikis mier warmoebuli produqtebisa da momsaxurebis erToblioba sabazro fasebSi. saqonlis warmoeba moicavs saqmianobis iseT saxeebs, rogoricaa mrewveloba, soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da satyeo meurneoba, TevzWera, mSenebloba, xolo momsaxureba transports, kavSirgabmulobas, vaWrobas, ganaTlebas, jandacvas, safinanso saqmianobas da sxv. Sualeduri moxmareba Sedgeba im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebisagan, romelic mTlianad moixmareba warmoebis procesSi. Sualeduri moxmarebis SemadgenlobaSi ar aRiricxeba ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba. mTliani damatebuli Rirebuleba warmoadgens sxvaobas warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebasa (mTliani gamoSveba) da Sualedur moxmarebas Soris. termini `mTliani” niSnavs, rom maCvenebeli moicavs warmoebis procesSi monawile ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebas (fizikur da moralur cveTas). gadasaxadebi produqciasa da importze (produqciaze gadasaxadebi) – savaldebulo daubrunebeli gadasaxdelebi, romelic daricxulia saxelmwifos mier sawarmoo erTeulebis mier warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis an importis moculobis proporciulad, produqciaze gadasaxadebs miekuTvnebian: damatebuli Rirebulebis, aqcizuri, importze da sabaJo gadasaxadebi. sxva gadasaxdebi warmoebaze dakavSirebulia warmoebis faqtorebis (Sroma, miwa, kapitali) gamoyenebasTan. maTSi agreTve Sedis gadasaxdelebi licenziebisaTvis. subsidiebi warmoebasa da eqsport-importze – saxelmwifos mier gacemuli
230 mimdinare, usasyidlo, daubrunebeli gadaxdebi, romlebic garkveuli ekonomikuri da socialuri politikis gatarebis mizniT eZlevaT sawarmoo erTeulebs im danakargebisaTvis, romelic warmoiSoba maSin, rodesac warmoebuli produqciis gasayidi fasi warmoebis saSualo danaxarjebze dabalia. termini `wminda gadasaxadebi” niSnavs, rom gadasaxadebi naCvenebia Sesabamisi subsidiebis gamoklebiT. mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) erovnul angariSTa sistemis erT-erTi ZiriTadi maCvenebelia. misi gaangariSeba warmoebs sami meTodiT: • warmoebis meTodiT mSp (sabazo fasebSi) izomeba rezidenti ekonomikuri erTeulebis mier sawarmoo saqmianobis Sedegad Seqmnili mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebebis SejamebiT. sabazo fasebSi Sefasebul mSp-ze produqtebze wminda gadasaxadebis damatebiT miiReba mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi. • mSp ganisazRvreba agreTve rogorc saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis procesSi monawile rezidenti erTeulebis pirveladi Semosavlebis jami: Sromis anazRaurebis, produqciasa da importze wminda gadasaxadebis, mTliani mogebisa da mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebis SejamebiT. • saboloo moxmarebis xarjebis meTodiT gaangariSebuli mSp warmoadgens saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebis xarjebis, mTliani dagrovebisa da wminda eqsportis (eqsports minus importi) jams. sxvadasxva meTodiT gaangariSebuli mTliani Sida produqtis moculobebi SeiZleba erTmaneTs ar emTxveodes, radganac maTi informaciuli wyaroebi gansxvavebulia. gansxvaveba iwereba striqonSi `statistikuri gansxvaveba”. mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gadayvana 2003 wlamde xdeboda erTmagi deflaciiT – saqmianobis saxis mixedviT mimdinare fasebSi gaangariSebuli mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis gadafasebiT
231 saqmianobis saxis Sesabamisi fasebis indeqsiT an produqciis moculobis naturaluri maCveneblebiT gaangariSebuli indeqsebis meSveobiT. 2003 wlidan mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gadayvana xdeba ufro srulyofili meTodiT –ormagi deflaciiT. es xorcieldeba fasebis Sesabamisi indeqsebis meSveobiT saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT mTliani gamoSvebisa da Sualeduri moxmarebis cal-calke deflirebiT da Semdeg maTi sxvaobis gamoTvliT. mTliani erovnuli Semosavali (meS) aris rezidentebis mier qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze da danarCeni msofliodan daricxuli pirveladi (xelfasi, mogeba, Sereuli Semosavlebi) da sakuTrebidan (dividendebi, renta) wminda (misaRebi gasacemis gamoklebiT) Semosavlebis jami. raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT meS mSp-sgan gansxvavdeba sazRvargareT gasacemi da miRebuli pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT. sazRvargareT gasacemi da miRebuli pirveladi Semosavlebi yalibdeba rezidenti erTeulebis mier mSp-is warmoebis procesSi Seqmnili Rirebulebebis pirveladi ganawilebis procesSi. masSi Sedis: Sromis anazRaureba, wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze, mTliani mogeba, mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi da Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan. Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan – instituciuri erTeulebis mier finansuri da arafinansuri materialuri aqtivebis gamosayeneblad gadacemis Sedegad daricxuli Semosavlebi. maT miekuTvneba saprocento Semosavlebi, dividendebi, renta da aseTive saxis sxva Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan. erovnuli mTliani gankargvadi Semosavali aris mTliani erovnuli Semosavlisa da qveynis rezidentebis mier danarCeni msofliodan miRebuli mimdinare wminda (misaRebi gasacemis gamoklebiT) transfertebis jami. es aris Semosavlebi, romelTac gankargaven rezidentebi saboloo moxmarebisaTvis da danazogebisaTvis.
232 mimdinare transfertebi – mimdinare operaciebi, romelTa drosac erTi instituciuri erTeuli meores gadascems saqonels, momsaxurebas an aqtivebs raime sanacvlo ekvivalentis miRebis gareSe. aseTi operaciebi warmoebs rogorc fuladi, ise naturaluri formiT. kapitaluri transfertebi – operaciebi, romelTa drosac instituciuri erTeuli meore erTeuls usasyidlod gadascems aqtivebs fuladi an naturaluri saxiT (rogorc wesi, sainvesticio mizniT). kapitaluri transfertebi Cveulebriv erTdroulia da mniSvnelovani sididisaa. maTSive Sedis kapitalze gadasaxadebi, sainvesticio subsidiebi, sxva kapitaluri transfertebi (memkvidreobis miReba, zaralis patieba da sxv.). mTliani mogeba da Sereuli Semosavlebi – mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis nawili, romelic rCeba mwarmoeblebs (korporaciebs) Sromis anazRaurebisa da warmoebaze wminda gadasaxadebis gadaxdis Semdeg. mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi – Sinameurneobebis sakuTrebaSi arsebuli arakorporaciuli sawarmoebisTvis, sadac Sinameurneobebs SeuZliaT awarmoon gadauxdeli SromiTi danaxarjebi. igi moicavs rogorc SinameurneobaTa SromiT anazRaurebas, ise am sawarmoTa mogebas. wminda mogeba da wminda Sereuli Semosavlebi utoldeba mTlian mogebas da mTlian Sereul mogebas ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gamoklebiT. danaxarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze – Sinameurneobebis danaxarjebi samomxmareblo saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze, agreTve saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebis da Sinameurneobebis momsaxure kerZo arakomerciul organizaciaTa (Smako) danaxarjebi individualuri da sazogadoebrivi moxmarebis saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze. saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebis xarjebi individualuri moxmarebis saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze – saxelmwifo biujetidan dafinansebuli mosaxleobisaTvis gaweuli ufaso
233 momsaxureba ganaTlebis, janmrTelobis dacvis, kulturis sferoSi. saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebis xarjebi koleqtiur momsaxurebaze – saxelmwifo biujetidan dafinansebuli ufaso momsaxureba ara calkeuli SinameurneobebisaTvis, aramed mTeli sazogadoebisaTvis an mosaxleobis garkveuli jgufisaTvis. am maCvenebelSi Sedis Tavdacvis, saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis, arasabazro mecnierebis da sxva xarjebi. Sinameurneobebis momsaxure kerZo arakomerciuli organizaciebis (Smako) xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze – pirobiTad miRebulia, rom es organizaciebi (politikuri partiebi, religiuri organizaciebi, profkavSirebi, sazogadoebrivi gaerTianebebi) ewevian mxolod individualur momsaxurebas. mTliani erovnuli danazogi – mTliani erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavlis nawili, romelic ar ixarjeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebaze. mTliani dagroveba – moicavs ZiriTadi kapitalis mTlian dagrovebas, materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlilebas da faseulobaTa wminda cvlilebas. ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba – ZiriTadi kapitalis obieqtebSi Cadebuli saxsrebi momavalSi axali Semosavlebis miRebisaTvis maTi warmoebaSi gamoyenebis gziT. ZiriTadi kapitali – warmoebis Sedegad miRebuli an arawarmoebuli aqtivebi, romlebic mravaljeradad, Cveulebriv erT welze met periodSi gamoiyeneba warmoebis procesSi. materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba moicavs sawarmoo maragebis Rirebulebis cvlilebas, daumTavrebel warmoebas, mza produqciasa da saqonels Semdgomi gayidvisaTvis. faseulobaTa wminda SeZena – SeZena aqtivebis gayidvis gamoklebiT, SeZena, rogorc Rirebulebis SenarCunebis
234 saSualeba: Zvirfasi liTonebisa da qvebis, antikvaruli nakeTobebisa, saxviTi xelovnebis nimuSebisa da koleqciebis. wminda dakrediteba(+) an wminda sesxeba(-) – gadameteba an deficiti investiciebis dafinansebis wyaroebsa da arafinansuri aqtivebis wminda SeZenis xarjebs Soris. mTlianad ekonomikis masStabiT wminda dakrediteba an wminda davalianeba gviCvenebs resursebis moculobas, romelic gadasca qveyanam `danarCen samyaros” da piriqiT. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsporti da importi moicavs mocemuli qveynis saeqsporto da saimporto operaciebs sxva qveynebTan. saqonlis eqsporti da importi – qveynis sazRvars gareT gatanili an qveyanaSi Semotanili saqonlis Rirebuleba. momsaxurebis eqsporti da importi moicavs satransporto momsaxurebas, turizms, komunikaciebs, samSeneblo momsaxurebas, sadazRvevo, finansur, kompiuterul da informaciul momsaxurebas, reklamas da momsaxurebis sxva saxeebs. wminda eqsporti ganisazRvreba rogorc sxvaoba eqsportsa da imports Soris. `danarCen samyarosTan” mimdinare operaciebis saldo – damabalansebeli muxli pirveladi Semosavlebisa da mimdinare transfertebis angariSisa sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis angariSSi. igi ganisazRvreba Semdegi wesiT: saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saldos emateba pirveladi Semosavlebi da mimdinare transfertebi miRebuli sxva qveynebidan da akldeba pirveladi Semosavlebi da mimdinare transfertebi gadaxdili sxva qveynebisaTvis. erovnuli angariSis zogadi sqema ase SeiZleba warmovadginoT:
235
gamoyeneba 1. 2. 3. . .
y1 y2 y3
resursebi 1. 2. 3. . .
x1 x2 x3
m. M y m
n.
sul gamoyeneba
sul resursebi
( y1 y 2 y n )
( x1 x2 xn )
xn
raodenobrivad resursebisa da gamoyenebis mxares m abalansebs gamoyenebiTi mxaris bolo memuxli, romelsac sabalanso muxls uwodeben m n xi y i i 1 i 1
aseTi formis angariSebi dgeba ekonomikis calkeul dargebisa da seqtorebis mixedviT, ris safuZvelzec warmoebs maTi Sejameba da mTeli ekonomikis konsovidirebul (gaerTianebul) angariSTa sistemis Seqmna. mTeli ekonomikis konsolidirebuli erovnul angariSTa sistema moicavs rogorc saSinao, aseve sagareo ekonomikur kavSirurTierTobebs. am sistemaSi ganixileba Svidi urTierTdakavSirebuli angariSi. esenia: 1. warmoebis angariSi Semosavlebis warmoqmnis angariSi Semosavlebis pirveladi ganawilebis angariSi Semosavlebis gadanawilebis angariSi Semosavlebis gamoyenebis angariSi kapitaluri danaxarjebis angariSi
236
237 safinanso angariSi
erovnuli angariSebi urTierTkavSirebi
da
maTi
angariSebi
gamoyeneba
resursebi
I. warmoebis angariSi
2. Sualeduri moxmareba
1. mTliani gamoSveba
3.mTliani damatebuli Rirebuleba (mTliani Sida produqti) II.Semosavlebis 2. Sromis warmoqmnis anazRaureba angariSi 3. wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebaze 4. subsidiebi 5. mTliani mogeba (mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi) III. 5. `sxva Semosavlebis samyarosTvis~ pirveladi gadacemuli ganawilebis sakuTrebidan angariSi Semosavlebi 6. pirveladi Semosavlebis saldo (mTliani erovnuli Semosavlebi)
sabalanso
sabalanso muxlebi maTi gaangariSebis wesi 1-2=3 (mTliani Sida produqti)
1.mTliani 1-2-(3-4)=5 damatebuli mTliani mogeba Rirebuleba (mTliani (mTliani Sereuli Sida produqti) Semosavlebi)
1. mTliani mogeba (mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi) 2.sakuTrebidan Semosavlebi 3.Sromis anazRaureba 4.wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebaze
1+2+3+4-5=6 (mTliani erovnuli Semosavlebi)
IV.Semosavlebis 3. `sxva gadanawilebis samyarosTvis~ angariSi gadacemuli mimdinare transfertebi 4. mTliani gankargviTi erovnuli Semosavlebi
1. mTliani erovnuli Semosavlebi (mTliani erovnuli Semosavlebi) 2. `sxva samyarodan~ miRebuli mimdinare transfertebi
1+2-3=4 (mTliani erovnuli gankargviTi Semosavali)
V. mTliani gankargviTi erovnuli Semosavlis angariSi
1. mTliani gankargviTi erovnuli Semosavali
1-2=3 (mTliani erovnuli danazogebi)
1. mTliani erovnuli danazogebi 2. `sxva samyarodan~ miRebuli kapitaluri transfertebi
1+2-3-4-5=6 (wminda dakrediteba an wminda sesxeba)
2. danaxarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze 3. mTliani erovnuli danazogebi VI. kapitaluri 3. operaciebis `sxva angariSi samyarosTvis~ gadacemuli kapitaluri transfertebi 4. ZiriTadi kapitalis dagroveba 5. materialuri maragebis cvlilebani mateba (+), kleba (-) 6. wminda dakrediteba (+) an sesxeba (-) VII. safinanso 3. safinanso angariSi aqtivebis SeZena
1. wminda dakrediteba (+) an sesxeba (-) 2.safinanso valdebulebaTa aReba
238
239
statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemebiT saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebis agregatebi2004-2008 wlebSi mimdinare fasebSi (milion larebSi) mSp (+)pirveldi Semosavlebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan (-)pirveldi Semosavlebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis (=)mTliani erovnuli Semosavali
2004 9 824.3
2005 11 620.9
2006 13 789.9
2007 16 993.8
2008 19 069.6
478.2
477.6
598.5
803.4
732.5
297.7
306.8
286.0
736.8
871.9
10 004.9
11 791.7
14 102.4
17 060.5
18 930.2
1113.5
1306.4
1 617.0
1 750.2
(-)ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba 976.8 (=)wminda erovnuli Semosavali
9028.0
10678.3
12796.1
15 443.4
17 180.0
(+)mimdinare transfertebis miReba sazRvargareTidan (-)mimdinare transfertebis gacema sazRvargareT (=)wminda erovnuli gnkargvadi Semosavali
881.4
747.9
1 029.1
1 280.2
1 722.4
97.9
98.5
111.7
133.7
122.1
9811.5
11327.7
13 713.4
16 589.9
18 780.3
(-)saboloo moxmareba
8 573.8
9 794.1
12 972.0
15 731.9
18 913.2
(=)wminda danazogi
1237.7
1533.6
741.5
858.0
-132.9
(+)kapitaluri transfertebis miReba sazRvargareTidan (-)kapitaluri transfertebis gacema sazRvargareT (=)kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis cvlileba danazogebisa da kapitaluri transfertebis Sedegad (-)mTliani kapitalis formireba
83.7
113.4
301.3
213.3
158.0
6.7
5.4
1.9
0.5
0.2
1 314.8
1641.5
1 040.9
1 070.8
24.9
3 134.8
3 891.5
4 255.3
5 447.5
5 148.8
1 113.5
1 306.4
1 617.0
1 750.2
(+)ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba 976.8 (-)statistikuri gansxvaveba
-250. 8
6.0
-106.9
359.3
544.9
(=)wminda dakrediteba(+), minda sesxeba(-)
-592.3
-1 142.6
-1 801.1
-3 119.0
-3 918.6
mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) maTgan mTavaria: mTliani Sida produqti, mTliani erovnuli Semosavali da erovnuli simdidre. mTliani Sida produqti ewodeba mocemuli qveynis teritoriaze warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebas sabazro fasebSi. es makroekonomikuri maCvenebeli gansazRvravs qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis potencials, mosaxleobis cxovrebis dones da sxva metad mniSvnelovan indikatorebs. mas ewodeba ,,mTliani~ imis gamo, rom igi praqtikulad moicavs, agreTve, momxmarebuli kapitalis Rirebulebasac saamortizacio anaricxebis saxiT (Teoriulad ki is am danaxarjebis gamoTiSviT unda iqnas adgenili, romelsac wminda Sida produqts uwodeben). ,,Sida~ ewodeba mas imis gamo, rom igi warmoebulia mocemuli qveynis teritoriaze rezidentebis mier (sityva ,,rezidenti~ laTinuri warmoSobisaa da mjdomares niSnavs. rezidentebs miekuTvneba ekonomikuri erTeulebi, romelTa ekonomikuri interesebis centri mocemuli qveynis teritoriazea, maT Soris ucxo qveynis sakuTrebaSi arsebuli aqtivebic) da ar iTvaliswinebs mocemuli qveynis moqalaqeebis mier ucxoeTSi Seqmnil Rirebulebas. ekonomikaSi cnobilia mTliani Sida produqtis gaangariSebis sami meTodi; sawarmoo (ekonomikis yvela dargsa da seqtorSi Seqmnili damatebuli Rireblebis jamis saxiT), saboloo moxmarebis (saboloo moxmarebis komponentebis jamis saxiT) da ganawilebiT (pirveladi Semosavlebis SejamebiT) meTodebi. amasTan pirvelad SemosavlebSi Seitaneba yvela saxis anazRaureba (xelfasi, premiebi, naturaluri anazRaureba da sxv.), socdazRvevis anaricxebi xelfasze, gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze subsidiebis gamoklebiT (romlebsac saxelmwifo iRebs warmoebis faqtorebis gamoyenebisaTvis), mTliani mogeba da mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi.
240
241
saboloo moxmarebaSi aRiricxeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis xarjebi, mTliani dagroveba, agreTve, eqsportimportis saldo (eqsportis gadameteba importze ,,+~, xolo importis gadameteba eqsportze ,,-~). TavisTavad saqonlisa da momsaxurebis xarjebSi Seitaneba SinameurneobaTa saboloo moxmarebaze gaweuli, rogorc fuladi ise naturaluri danaxarjebi. statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemebiT saqarTveloSi mTliani Sida produqtis dinamika Semdeg suraTs iZleva:
mSp mln.lari
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
8564
9824
11621
13790
16994
19070
agreTve, gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze) is Tanxaa, romelsac mocemuli qveynis rezidentebi Rebuloben rogorc mocemuli qveynis, ise ucxo qveynebis mTliani Sida produqtis SeqmnaSi monawileobisaTvis. raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT erovnuli Semosavali gansxvavebulia mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebisagan ucxoeTidan miRebuli da ucxoeTisaTvis gadacemuli pirveladi Semosavlebis (sxvaobiT). imis gamo, rom ganviTarebuli qveynebi ucxoeTSi dabandebuli investiciebidan did Semosavals iReben, amitom am qveynis erovnuli Semosavali, rogorc wesi, metia mTlian Sida produqtze. ekonomiurad CamorCenil qveynebSi ki piriqiTaa, mTliani Sida produqti metia erovnul Semosavalze. erT-erTi mniSvnelovani makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia, agreTve, erovnuli simdidre. erovnuli simdidre
erovnuli Semosavali qveynis ekonomikuri potencialis mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia, agreTve, erovnuli Semosavali (,,mTliani~ amortizaciis CaTvliT, xolo ,,wminda~ - amortizaciis gamoklebiT). erovnuli Semosavali ewoda ama Tu im periodSi mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis mier miRebuli pirveladi Semosavlebis jams. igi gansxvavebulia mTliani Sida produqtisagan rogorc raodenobrivad, ise Tvisebrivad. Tvisebrivi gansxvaveba imaSi mdgomareobs, rom Tu Sida produqti warmoadgens saboloo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis nakadebis anu axlad Seqmnili Rirebulebis (damatebuli Rirebulebis) maxasiaTebels, mTliani erovnuli Semosavali pirveladi Semosavlebis (Sromis anazRaureba, mogeba, sakuTrebidan miRebuli dividendebi, procentebi, renta da,
zogadad erovnuli simdidre aris safinanso da arasafinanso aqtivebis erToblioba drois ama Tu im momentisaTvis. safinanso aqtivebia: monetaluri oqro da misi xeluxlebeli maragebi, depozitebi da valuta, fasiani qaRaldebi (aqciis garda), aqciebi da sxva saxis saaqcio kapitali, sadazRvevo teqnikuri rezervebi da sxv. arasafinanso aqtivebSi Sedis warmoebuli (ZiriTadi kapitali, sabrunavi kapitali, ZviradRirebuli liTonebi, saiuvilerio nawarmi) da arawarmoebuli aramaterialuri (patentebi, saavtoro uflebebi da sxv.) da materialuri (bunebrivi resursebi: miwa, wiaRiseuli, tye, wyali da sxv.) Rirebulebani. aqedan erovnuli simdidris konkretuli ganmarteba ase SeiZleba Camoyalibdes: erovnuli simdidre drois ama Tu im mometisaTvis ewodeba safinanso da arasafinanso aqtivebis erTobliobas,
242
243
romelic moicavs wina Taobebis mier mocemuli qveynis teritoriasa da mis farglebs gareT Seqmnil materialur da aramaterialur erovnul qonebas, agreTve gamokvleul da ekonomikur brunvaSi moqceul resursebs. erovnuli simdidris Semadgeneli elementebidan didi xvedriTi wiliT gamoirCeva ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitali, agreTve, bunebrivi resursebi. qveynis ekonomikuri simdidre damokidebulia am elementebis moculobasa da gamoyenebis efeqtianobaze. amitom statistika biznesmenebisa da menejerebisaTvis iZleva ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis moculobis, struqturis, dinamikis, agreTve, gamoyenebis efeqtianobis naTel suraTs, rac aucilebelia kapitalis menejeruli marTvisaTvis. ZiriTadi kapitalis statistika ZiriTadi kapitali Sromis iaraRebi da aramaterialuri resursebia, romlebic mravali sawarmoo ciklis ganmavlobaSi emsaxurebian produqciis warmoebis, agreTve, momsaxurebis process da TavianTi Rirebuleba gadaaqvT damzadebuli produqciis TviTRirebulebaSi nawil-nawil, cveTis Sesabamisad. ZiriTadi kapitalis SemadgenlobaSi aRiricxeba Senobebi da nagebobani, manqanebi da mowyobilobani, satransporto saSualebani, instrumentebi da inventari, muSa da produqtiuli pirutyvi, mravalwliani nargavebi da sxva ZiriTadi kapitali. ZiriTadi kapitali ganicdis rogorc fizikur aseve moralur cveTas. fizikuri cveTaa ZiriTadi kapitalis fizikuri datvirTvis gamo calkeuli nawilebis mwyobridan gamosvla, rac moiTxovs rogorc mcire, ise saSualo da kapitalur remonts. moraluri ewodeba ZiriTadi kapitalis gaufasurebas imis gamo, rom iwarmoeba ufro maRali warmadobis an dabali TviTRirebulebis manqana-danadgarebi. biznesmenebma da menejerebma unda icodnen, rom orTave am SemTxvevaSi damzadebuli produqciis (momsaxurebis) erTeulis
TviTRirebuleba da tarifebi mcirdeba, riTac bazarze arsebuli konkurenciis pirobebi ukarnaxebs maT ganaaxlon mowyobilobis parki. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefaseba warmoebs Tavdapirveli, aRdgeniTi da Tavdapirveli an aRdgeniTi RirebulebiT cveTis gamoklebiT. Tavdapirveli Rirebulebaa kapitalis SeZenis, transportirebisa da damontaJebis RirebulebaTa jami. aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba aris ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba kvlavwarmoebis Tanamedrove pirobebSi. vinaidan mcirdeba mowyobilobaTa warmoebis TviTRirebuleba, aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba, rogorc wesi, naklebia Tavdapirvel Rirebulebaze (Tumca inflaciuri movlenebis ganviTarebis gamo SeiZleba piriqiT moxdes). Tu Tavdapirvel an aRdgeniT RirebulebaT gamovaklebT cveTis Rirebulebas, miviRebT ZiriTadi kapitalis aramortizirebul, narCen Rirebulebas. cveTis Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba mowyobilobis namuSevari wlebisa da saamortizacio anaricxebis normebis mixedviT. ra aris amortizacia? amortizacia ewodeba ZiriTadi kapitalis aRsadgeni Rirebulebis dagrovebas. Tanamedrove msoflio praqtikaSi gavrcelebulia amortizaciis sami saxeoba: wrfivi anu mudmivi, daCqarebuli da Senelebuli. Tu ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa mTeli momsaxurebis periodis ganmavlobaSi warmoebs Tanabrad, maSin amortizaciis wliur fonds (A) gansazRvraven formuliT:
A
CTavd. C kapr. Cmod. Clikv. t
244
245 sadac
CTavd. -
ZiriTadi
kapitalis
Tavdapirveli
Rirebulebaa;
Ckapr. - kapitaluri remontis Rirebulebaa; Cmod. - modenizaciis Rirebulebaa;
Clikv.
-
ZiriTadi
kapitalis
narCeni
Rirebulebaa
mwyobridan gamosvlis SemTxvevaSi (salikvidacio Rirebuleba). t - ZiriTadi kapitalis momsaxurebis welTa raodenobaa. amortizaciis wliuri fondis mixedviT (misi procentuli SefardebiT Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan) ganisazRvreba amortizaciis norma (%). mudmivi anu wrfivi amortizaciis SemTxvevaSi es norma ucvlelia ZiriTadi kapitalis momsaxurebis mTeli periodis ganmavlobaSi. Tu, magaliTad, ama Tu im saxis mowyobilobis Tavdapirveli Rirebulebaa 100,0 aTasi lari da amortizaciis norma 10%, maSin damzadebuli produqciis TviTRirebulebas yovelwliurad daericxeba mowyobilobis Rirebulebis 10%, anu
100.0 aTasi lari  10  10.0 aTasi lari 100 ZiriTadi kapitalis aqtiuri nawilis (teqnologiuri mowyobilobani, maRali warmadobis manqanebi da sxv.) ganaxlebis daCqarebis mizniT iyeneben amortizaciis daCqarebul meTods. am dros ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebulebidan yovelwliurad iTvaliswineben saamortizacio Tanxebis amoRebas ara Tanabari procentiT, aramed orjer da zogjer ufro meti procentiT. Cvens mier zemoT motanili magaliTidan SeiZleba iTqvas, rom biznesmenebs SeuZliaT mowyobilobis muSaobis pirveli wlebidanve amoiRos saamortizacio anaricxebi 20%-iani anu 2jer meti ganakveTiT. am SemTxvevaSi mowyobilobis mTlian
Tavdapirvel Rirebulebas biznesmeni amoiRebs ara aT, aramed xuT weliwadSi. miRebuli TanxebiT biznesmenebs SeuZliaT SeiZinon axali, maRali teqnikuri ekonomikuri monacemebis manqana-iaraRebi da amiT moaxdinon mowyobilobis ganaxleba. amortizaciis mesame Senelebuli saxeobaa, rac ekonomistebma, biznesmenebma da menejerebma upriania gamoiyenon ZiriTadi kapitalis pasiuri nawilis (Senobebi, nagebobani, gadamcemi mowyobilobani da sxv.) mimarT, romlebsac naklebad emuqrebaT moraluri cveTis saSiSroeba. am SemTxvevaSi Tavidan naklebi Tanxebi amoiReba kapitalis Tavdapirveli Rirebulebidan, xolo fizikuri cveTis xangrZlivobis gadidebasTan erTad TandaTanobiT diddeba saamortizacio anaricxebic.
sabrunavi kapitalis statistika sabrunavi kapitali warmoebis is saSualebebia (saxsrebia), romlebic erTi sawarmoo ciklis ganmavlobaSi mTlianad moixmarebian produqciis sawarmoeblad, icvlian TavianT naturalur formas da Rirebuleba gadaaqvT damzadebuli produqciis an momsaxurebis TviTRirebulebaSi nawil-nawil, cveTis Sesabamisad. sabrunavi kapitali Sedgeba sabrunavi fondebis (sawarmoo maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoebis naSTebi, momavali periodis xarjebi) da mimoqcevis fondebisagan (mza produqcia gadagzavnili myidvelebze gzaSi, mza produqcia sawyobSi da fuladi aqtivebi bankSi). statistika Seiswavlis da aCvenebs sarkeSi Tu rogoria sabrunavi kapitalis saerTo moculoba, struqtura, dinamika da maTze moqmedi faqtorebis korelaciur-regresiuli analizis indikatorebi. unda vicodeT, rom kapitalis gamouyenebloba mZime tvirTad awveba ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegebs. am SemTxvevaSi diddeba produqciisa da momsaxurebis erTeulze kapitalis danaxarjebi, Zvirdeba TviTRireuleba, axlovdeba
246
247
gakotrebis saSiSroeba. erTnairi moculobis kapitalis maRalefeqtiuri gamoyenebis pirobebSi diddeba gamovSebuli produqciisa da momsaxurebis moculoba, mcirdeba erTeulis TviTRirebuleba, izrdeba mogebis moculoba da rentabelobis maCveneblebi. amitom, biznesis swori marTvis miznebisaTvis ekonomistebma, biznesmenebma da menejerebma, pirvel rigSi, kargad unda gaarkvion statistikuri sarkis meSveobiT rogoria kapitalis gamoyenebis efeqtianoba biznesSi, ramdenad efeqturad gamoiyeneba TiToeuli daxarjuli lari. am sarkes statistika warmoaCens iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa fondukugeba, fondtevadoba, mowyobilobis datvirTvis eqstensiuri, intensiuri da integraluri koeficientebi (ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyeneba), brunvadobis koeficienti, brunvadoba dReebSi da datvirTvis koeficienti (sabrunavi saxsrebis gamoyeneba). fondukugeba (kapitalukugeba) gaiangariSeba gamoSvebuli produqciisa da momsaxurebis RirebulebaTa SefardebiT ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo RirebulebasTan
Q S sadac K - kapitalukugeba; Q - gamoSvebuli produqciis K
an
momsaxurebis
Rirebuleba sabazro fasebSi)
S ZiriTadi kapitalis (fondebis) saSualo Rirebuleba. fondtevadoba (kapitaltevadoba) fondukugebis Sebrunebuli sididea. fondukugeba gviCvenebs kapitalis (fondebis) Rirebulebis erT larze ramdenia gamoSvebuli produqciis an momsaxurebis Rirebuleba, xolo fondtevadoba gamoSvebuli produqciis erT larze ZiriTadi kapitalis danaxarjebis moculobas. aqedan cxadia, rom ZiriTadi
kapitalis erT larze produqciis an momsaxurebis Rirebulebis gadideba niSnavs fondtevadobis Semcirebas anu ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis efeqtianobis amaRlebas. mowyobilobis datvirTvis eqstensiuri koeficienti mowyobilobis samuSao drois mixedviT gamoyenebas gviCvenebs da gaiangariSeba formuliT:
K eqst.  sadac,
Tfaqt. Tgegm.
K eqst. - mowyobilobis eqstensiuri datvirTvis
koeficientia;
Tfaqt. - mowyobilobis namuSevari faqtiuri droa dazgasaaTebSi;
Tgegm. - mowyobilobis muSaobis gegmuri droa mocemul periodSi CarxsaaTobiT (dazgasaaTobiT). intensiuri gamoyenebis koeficienti gviCvenebs mowyobilobis datvirTvis xarisxs erT saaTSi, rasac arkveven erT saaTSi gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis SefardebiT am mowyobilobis warmadobasTan. kompleqsurad rogorc drois, aseve warmadobis mixedviT gamoyenebas gviCvenebs mowyobilobis datvirTvis integraluri koeficienti, romelic gaiangariSeba eqstensiuri da intensiuri datvirTvis koeficientebis urTieTTanamravliT. magaliTi: samSeneblo firmam, romlis ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualoTviuri Rirebuleba 1,8 mln laria, mocemul TveSi gamouSva 2,0 mln laris produqcia. Sesabamisma samSeneblo teqnologiurma danadgarebma orcvliani muSaobis reJimis pirobebSi 400 saaTis nacvlad imuSava 320 saaTi, warmadobis mixedviT unda gamoeSva erT saaTSi saSualod 2 tona
248
249
samSeneblo pirobebSi:
masala,
faqtiurad
fondukugeba Seadgens: fondtevadoba Seadgens: 1.
eqstegraluri
K eqst. 4.
K int. 5.
gamouSva
K fond.uk. K fond.tev.
1,4
tona.
aseT
2.0 1.111 lari 1.8 1 0.9 1.111
datvirTvis
koeficienti:
320 0.8 400 intensiuri
datvirTvis
koeficienti:
1.5 0.75 2 intensiuri
datvirTvis
koeficienti:
K int. K eqst. K int. 0.8 0.75 0.6 rogorc Cans, ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi dabalia. ras unda miaqcion yuradReba ekonomistebma, biznesmenebma da menejerebma? pirvel rigSi unda mivaqcioT yuradReba ZiriTadi kapitalis struqturas, rogoria masSi aqtiuri nawilis (teqnologiuri mowyobilobis) xvedriTi wili. unda SevadaroT is standartebsa da mowinave firmebis Sesabamis maCvenebels. imis gamo, rom aqtiuri nawili qmnis uSualod produqcias, menejeruli RonisZiebani unda davaproduqtoT misi amaRlebis mimarTulebiT. unda mieqces yuradReba, agreTve, mowyobilobis muSaobis drois struqturas, rasac iZleva qronometraJisa da samuSao drois fotografiis masalebi. menejeruli RonisZiebani unda warimarTos unayofo drois danaxarjebis (muSebis gacdenebi, mocdenebi sxvadasxva mizezebiT: eleqtroenergiis xSiri gamorTvebi, masalebis uqonloba, mowyobilobis uwesivro
mdgomareoba, misi mcire, saSualo da kapremontis saWiroeba da a.S.) aRmofxvrisa da sasargeblo drois danaxarjebis xvedriTi wilis gadidebis mimarTulebiT. sabrunavi saxsrebis gamoyenebis maCveneblebidan yvelaze mniSvnelvani brunvadobis koeficientia, romelic ase gaiangariSeba: sadac:
K brunv.
Q C
K brunv.
-
sabrunavi
saxsrebis
koeficientia mocemul periodSi; Q - imave periodSi gamoSvebuli produqciis Rirebuleba sabazro fasebSi;
an
brunvadobis realizebuli
C - sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTia igive periodSi (TveSi saSualoTviuri naSTi gaiangariSeba Tvis dasawyissa da Tvis bolos sabrunavi saxsrebis naSTebis jamis orze SefardebiT, saSualokvartaluri - sami Tvis saSualos, xolo saSualowliuri - oTxi kvartlis saSualos mixedviT). meore maCvenebeli, brunvadoba dReebSi ganisazRvreba mocemuli periodis kalendaruli dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvadobis koeficientze. mesame maCvenebeli sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis koeficienti, gaiangariSeba sabrunavi saxsrebis erT larze realizebuli saqonlis moculobiT. ras gviCvenebs TiToeuli maCvenebeli? brunvadobis koeficienti gviCvenebs ramdenjer gadabrunda sabrunavi saxsrebi mocemul periodSi, brunvadobis dReebSi - ramdeni dRea saWiro erTi gadabrunebisaTvis, xolo sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis koeficienti sabrunavi saxsrebis TiToeuli lari ramdeni laris saqonlis (produqciis) realizacias ,,axerxebs~ mocemul periodSi.
250
251
gare samyaro da bunebrivi resursebi erovnuli simdidris Semadgeneli nawilia, agreTve, gare samyaro da bunebrivi resursebi. imasTan dakavSirebiT, rom Tanamedrove msoflioSi mimdinareobs gare samyarosa da rekreaciuli zonis dabinZurebis, bunebrivi resursebis mopovebis da xarjvis intensiuri procesebi (yovelwliurad moipoveba 100 mlrd tona madani, saTbobi da sxvadasxva saxis samSeneblo masalebi, agreTve, 5 mlrd tona bunebrivi airi da navTobi da a.S.) metad aqtualuri gaxda am procesebis statistikuri Seswavla. bunebrivi resursebia miwisa da tyis, sasargeblo wiaRiseulis maragebi, wylisa da hidroenergetikuli resursebi da sxva. bunebrivi resursebi or nawilad iyofa. erTi nawili mozidulia warmoebis procesSi da CaerTveba simdidris SemadgenlobaSi. meore nawili ganekuTvneba potenciur bunebriv resursebs. bunebrivi resursebis gamoyenebis statistikuri maCveneblebi moicavs miwisa da tyis fondis, sasargeblo wiaRiseulis, wylisa da hidroenergetikuli resursebis, agreTve, garemo samyaros moculobis, struqturis, dinamikisa da moqmedi faqtorebis indikatorebs. miwis fondi aris ama Tu im qveynis an regionis mTliani teritoria wylisqveSa farTobis CaTvliT, romlis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis sasoflo-sameurneo, samrewvelo, samSeneblo, satransporto da sxva daniSnulebis miwis farTobebi. sasoflo-sameurneo miwis fondis SemadgenlobaSi TavisTavad gamoiyofa saxnavi, nasveni miwebi, mravalwliani nargavebi, saTibebi, saZovrebi. miwis fondi, pirvel rigSi, absoluturi maCveneblebiT Seiswavleba, rac moicavs miwis fondis raodenobas periodis dasawyisSi, zrdas an klebas periodis ganmavlobaSi, transformacias (erTi saxis miwis fondis gardaqmnas meore
saxeobaSi - saxnavi saZovrad an piriqiT) da miwis fonds periodis bolosaTvis. gamoiyeneba, agreTve, SefardebiTi maCveneblebic, rogoricaa: miwis fondis struqtura calkeuli saxis miwis fondis mixedviT, dinamika 5 wlis ganmavlobaSi da a.S. tyis fondi merqnis maragia, romlis raodenoba izomeba kuburi metrobiT. igi Sedgeba wyalsacavebis (wylis obieqtebis napirebis), damcveli (rkinigza da sxva gzebis gaswvriv), sanitarul-higienuri da gamajansaRebeli (qalaqebis, sawarmoebisa da dawesebulebebis tyis fondi, tyis parkebi, nakrZalebi da sxv.) tyis fondebisagan. tyis fondis gamoyenebas axasiaTeben tyiT dafaruli farTobis 1 ha-ze merqnis namatiT wlis manZilze, tyis aRdgeniT (gaWrili tyis nacvlad axalSeneba), tyis axali gaSenebis farTobiT. sasargeblo wiaRiseuli misi Seswavlilobisa da samrewvelo gadamuSavebisaTvis momzadebis xarisxis mixedviT, iyofa oTx jgufad: A - detalurad gamokvleuli maragebi; B gamokvleuli maragebi;
C1
-
rTuli
geologiuri
agebulebis
gamokvleuli
maragebi; C 2 - perspeqtiuli maragebi. statistika axasiaTebs maragebis saerTo moculobas, struqturas da dinamikas. wylis resursebi gamoiyeneba sayofacxovrebo miznebisaTvis, samrewvelo momaragebisaTvis, hidroenergiis misaRebad, mosarwyavad, Tevzis gasaSeneblad, dasaWerad da a.S. maT SemadgenlobaSi Sedis Sina (mdinareebi, tbebi da sxv.) da gare (okeaneebi da sxv.) wylis resursebi. statistika swavlobs wylis resursebis saerTo raodenobas, struqturas, dinamikas da sxv. garemos mdgomareobas axasiaTeben garemos calkeuli elementebiT (wylis maragiT, misi moxmarebiT, mwvane nargavebiT)
252
253
ama Tu im qveynis an regionis teritoriis an mosaxleobis erTeulze. garemos dabinZurebas axasiaTeben avtomanqanebis raodenobiT erT km2 an mosaxleobis 1000 sulze, avtomanqanebidan gamotyorcnili mavne airebiT da a.S. biznes garemos mimzidvelobis integrirebul statistikur maCvenebelTa sistema biznes garemoze uamravi socialur-ekonomikuri da politikuri faqtori axdens zemoqmedebas, romelTagan mTavaria zemoTganxiluli socialur-ekonomikuri, makroekonomikuri da bunebrivi, SromiTi resursebisa da Sromis bazris garemos statistikuri indikatorebi. ismis kiTxva! rogor SeiZleba yvela isini gavzomoT da warmovadginoT erT gaerTianebul, sinTezur, inegrirebul indikatorSi, romlis mixedviT investorebi, biznesmenebi da sxva dainteresebuli pirebi TvalnaTliv daianaxaven Tu ramdenad mimzidvelia mocemuli qveyana an regioni biznesis ganviTarebisaTvis? am SemTxvevaSi siZnele imaSi mdgomareobs, rom faqtorTa iseT kompleqsTan gvaqvs saqme, romelTa Sejameba an erTmaneTze gadamravleba ar SeiZleba anu ar xasiaTdebian aditiurobisa da multiflikatorebis TvisebebiT. amitom aq gamogvadgeba gaeros eqspertebis mier adamianis potencialuri ganviTarebis indeqsis SemuSavebisaTvis gamoyenebuli meTodologia, romlis mixedviT xdeba TiToeuli faqtoris standartizacia anu normireba da Semdeg maTi sinTezi, gaerTianeba erT integrirebul maCvenebelSi. biznes garemos mimzidvelobis sinTezuri, integraluri statistikuri indikatori SeiZleba aseTi zogadi formuliT n
warmovidginoT:
K int.
K i 1
n
i
K int. biznes garemos mimzidvelobis integraluri
sadac, koeficientia;
Ki
- uri faqtoris subindeqsi;
n - faqtorTa ricxvi. TavisTavad an subindeqsi SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnas Semdegi formulis daxmarebiT: Ki sadac,
X i X i min X i max X i min Xi
i -uri faqtoris faqtobrivi mniSvnelobaa
mocemul qveyanasa da regionSi; X i min i - uri faqtoris minimaluri mniSvneloba;
X i max i - uri faqtoris maqsimaluri mniSvneloba. biznes garemoze moqmedi ganmsazRvreli parametrebi Cveni warmovadginoT:
faqtorebi da maTi varaudiT, SeiZleba ase
254
255 biznes garemos ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi
#
faqtoris dasaxeleba maCveneblis maqsimaluri mniSvneloba
1
mSp erT sulze
5448 aSS dolari
2
ganaTlebis done
100 %
3
maCveneblis minimaluri mniSvneloba
subindeqsi
100 aSS dolari TveSi 0%
K1
sicocxlis 85 weli saSualo xangZlivoba
25 weli
K3
4
umuSevrobis done
mowinave qveynis maCvenebeli
0%
K4
5
siRaribis done
mowinave qveynis maCvenebeli
0%
K5
6
infrastruqturis mowinave qveynis ganviTarebis maCvenebeli done bunebrivi resursebis mowinave qveynis % erovnul maCvenebeli simdidreSi kanondarRvevaTa mowinave qveynis raodenoba mosaxleobis maCvenebeli 10 000 kacze kerZo sakuTr. mowinave qveynis xelyofis maCvenebeli raodenoba mosaxleobis 10 000 kacze Semosavlebis mowinave qveynis uTanabrobis koef. maCvenebeli
0%
K6
0%
K7
0%
K8
0%
K9
7
8
9
10
K2
mosaxleoba. magram amasTan erTad daintresebulia iafi samuSao ZaliTa da infrastruqturis (gzebis, transportis da sxv.) ganviTarebis maRali doniT, agreTve, umuSevrobisa da siRaribis arsebobiT, rac bizness iafi samuSao ZaliT uzrunvelyofs. faqtorTa bolo sami dasaxeleba ukuproporciul damokidebulebaSia biznes garemos mimzidvelobis xarisxisadmi. kanondarRvevaTa didi raodenoba anu kriminaluri situaciis gauareseba, agreTve, kerZo sakuTrebis xSiri xelyofa sakanonmdeblo da aRmasrulebeli xelisuflebis mier da mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis uTanabrobis Semcireba, anu nulTan miaxloeba auaresebs biznes garemos. amitom biznes garemos mimzidvelobis xarisxis integraluri maCveneblis gaangariSebisaTvis saWiroa, Cveni gaangariSebiT am faqtoris Sesabamisi subindeqsi gamovakloT erTs. miviRebT kanonmdeblobis da kerZo sakuTrebis dacvis, agreTve, Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis ara uTanabrobis, aramed Tanabarganawilebis koeficientebs, romelTa gadideba pirdapirproporciulia biznes garemos mimzidvelobis xarisxisadmi. saboloo jamSi, Cvens magaliTze, biznes garemos mimzidvelobis xarisxis koeficienti miiRebs saxes: 7
0%
K10
CamoTvlil faqtorTa pirveli Svidi pirdapirproporciul gavlenas axdens biznes garemos mimzidvelobis xarisxze. biznesmens da investors srulebiTac ar awyobs biznesis ganviTarebisaTvis mosaxleobiT dasaxlebuli teritoria cxovrebis Zalian dabali doniT. mas moawyobs hyavdes kanonmdeblobiT daculi mdidarTa partniorebi qveyanasa da regionSi, agreTve, maRali sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobisa da ganaTlebuli samuSao Zalis mqone
K mimz.
K i 1
3
i
3 Ki i 1
10
zogadad Cvens mier miRebuli formula ase SeiZleba gamovsaxoT: m
Kmimz.
n
K i ( n m) K i i 1
m 1
n
256 sadac, biznes garemos mimzidvelobis m pirdapirproporciuli faqtorebis ricxvi, xolo danarCeni n ď€ m - araproporciuli moqmedebis faqtorebia. biznes garemos mimzidvelobis integraluri koeficientis mniSvneloba icvleba 0-dan 1-mde, anu 0-dan 100%-mde. Tu misi mniSvneloba 0-dan 30%-is farglebSia, mimzidveloba sustia, 30-dan 60%-mde saSualod zomieri, xolo 60%-s zeviT, unda viviaraudoT, rom Zalian Zlieria.
257
Sinaarsi
Sesavali
. . . . .
3
Tema 1. mosaxleobis statistika
. . . . . . . . .
4
Tema 2. SromiTi resursebisa da Sromis bazris statistika 44 Tema 3. sabanko da sadazRvevo statistika . . .
66
Tema 4. monetaruli da fiskalur-sagadasaxado statistika
. . . . .
87
Tema 5. fasebisa da inflaciis statistika . .
104
Tema 6. safondo birJebis da fasiani qaRaldebis statistika Tema 7. mewarmeobis
. . . .
118
statistika
. . .
140
Tema 8. investiciebis statistika . . .
179
Tema 9. sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa statistika . . 198 Tema 10. erovnul angariSTa sistema . . . 227 literatura
258
259
literatura
1.
gabiZaSvili b. , statistika, ekonomikaSi, biznessa da menejmentSi, Tb. , 2007.
2. gabiZaSvili b. , ekonomikuri statistika,
Tb. ,
2006. 3. kbilaZe d. , abesaZe n. , metreveli S. , statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi, Tb. , 2008. 4. kbilaZe d. , abesaZe n. , metreveli S. , socialur-ekonomikuri statistika,
Tb. , 2006.
5. xmalaZe m. , demografia, Tb. , 2009. 6.
Cnfnbcnbrf Abyfycjd Extdybr gjl htlfrcbtq D.Y. cfkbyf
V. 2001 u.
7. WWW. geostat.ge 8. WWW. mof.ge