TRANSPORTATION
Within the global context, South Africa, like many developing countries with limited resources, faces the challenge of proactively managing, reducing and eliminating the high incidence of road crashes, injuries and fatalities. Using statistically based linear regression models helps to pinpoint the hotspots and prioritise funding. By Arvin Sarjoo and Professor Dhiren Allopi*
Non-motorised transport and intersection crash prediction models
T
he vulnerability of pedestrians and other non-motorised transport (NMT) modes in the event of traffic accidents is well documented in both international and national literature. The situation for South Africa, however, is especially dire. Statistics provided by the Road Traffic Management Corporation indicate that pedestrians account for approximately 40% of all road fatalities. A holistic systems approach is therefore required to address road safety and the wider range of factors that expose pedestrians to risk. These include human error, vehicle speed, poor road design, and inadequate enforcement of traffic regulations. As the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CTMM), the main aim of our research was to develop procedures with measurable benefits in promoting a safer road environment, focusing on intersectionrelated crashes as an applied example. While intersections constitute a relatively small portion of the road network, intersectionrelated crashes contribute to 20% of all fatal crashes. The CTMM’s response to road safety challenges is partially addressed on a strategic level in its Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan. However, on an operational or functional level, a need exists for the development of practical, measurable and results-focused road safety assessment and audit procedures. There’s a need for a paradigm shift from a
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IMIESA July 2020
reactive approach to road safety – where investigations are only based on complaints or locations with high crash frequency – to a more proactive approach where road safety is incorporated into all stages of a roadway cycle. The South African road fatality rate as a middle-income country is reported to be 23.5 fatalities per 100 000 population, which is
DID YOU KNOW? Statistics provided by the Road Traffic Management Corporation indicate that pedestrians account for approximately 40% of all road fatalities.
notably higher than the 2015 WHO global status report on road safety. The worldwide average for middle-income countries is 18.4 fatalities per 100 000 population.
Causes and factors affecting crash rates The causes of fatal crashes indicate that human factors account for 73.6%, vehicles for 14.1%, and roads and the environment for 12.3%. Transportation engineering typically focuses on the 12.3% attributed to roads and the environment. However, greater reductions in fatalities could be achieved by directing scarce resources and funds towards a safe systems approach, which focuses on the predominant human factors. The safe systems approach is internationally accepted as best
