da tranzicia, axali saxalxo diplomatia

5. Seni azriT, rogor SeiZleba kultura da narativi iqces rbil Zalad? moiyvane magaliTi. 6. rogor fiqrob, legitimuri qmedeba ratom aris aucilebeli piroba rbili Zalis efeqturad ganxorcielebisTvis? 7. imsjele rbili Zalis resursebsa da meqanizmebze. 8. eTanxmebi Tu ara ganmartebas: „ideaTa bazarSi Cveni survilebi swored rbili Zalis mier formirdeba“. 9. rogor fiqrob, ra tipis rbilma Zalam moaxdina Senze gavlena cxovrebis ama Tu im etapze? 10. gaecani sidnei lumetis films „12 ganrisxebuli mamakaci“, ilia ilfis da evgeni petrovis Txzulebas „erTsarTuliani amerika“. rogor fiqrob, ratom moaxdina aRniSnulma filmma da wignma ganzraxulisgan sapirispiro gavlena sabWoTa moqalaqeze?

1.3. cifruli revolucia, Zalis difuzia da tranzicia, axali saxalxo diplomatia

• cifruli revolucia da misi gamowvevebi • Zalis difuzia da misi zegavlena saerTaSoriso politikaze • cifruli globalizacia da kiberfeodalizmi • axali saxalxo diplomatia

msoflio istoriaSi cnobili kanonzomierebaa, rom teqnologiur cvlilebebs yovelTvis mohyveba sazogadoebrivi transformacia. msoflio istoriografia asaxelebs sam industriul revolucias, romelmac Secvala

msoflios istoria, saerTaSoriso wesrigis logika da TiToeuli individis cxovreba. pirvel industriul revoluciad moinaTla XVIII-XIX ss. mijna. revolucia daukavSirda axali tipis energiis aRmoCenas – orTqlis Zravas, romelmac xeli Seuwyo warmoebis meqanizacias, swraf urbanizacias, ramac Tavis mxriv ganapiroba pre-modernuli politikuri sistemebis da soflis meurneobaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikis transformacia. meore industriuli revolucia XIX s-is miwuruls energiis axali wyaroebis, navTobis da gazis aRmoCenas ukavSirdeba. es epoqa dakavSirebulia metalurgiuli da qimiuri mrewvelobis ganviTarebasTan, masobriv warmoebasTan, komunikaciis axali formebis SeqmnasTan (telefoni, telegrafi...), transportis ganviTarebasTan (avtomobili, TviTmfrinavi...). mesame industriuli revolucia ukavSirdeba meore msoflio omis Semdgom periods: xelovnuri inteleqtis gamogoneba; cifruli da kompiuteruli sistemebis Seqmna-ganviTareba; informaciis Seqmnis, damuSavebis da gaziarebis axali saSualebebi... meoTxe industriul revolucias uwodeben uaxles teqnologiur cvlilebebs – genuri inJineriis ganviTareba, xelovnuri inteleqtis axali formebi, blokCeini, kriptovaluta...

1

Cven viziarebT Tvalsazriss, rom amJamad msoflio imyofeba meoTxe industriuli revoluciis dasawyiSi da sazogadoebrivi Tu politikuri transformacia kidev ufro masStaburi iqneba, vidre wina sami revoluciis SemTxvevaSi.

1 Klaus Schwab. The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond. World Economic Forum. 14 January, 2016. https://www.weforum.org/ agenda/2016/01/thefourthindustrialrevolutionwhatitmeansandhowtorespond

wina sami revoluciisgan gansxvavebiT, meoTxe industriuli revolucia ukavSirdeba ara axali resursebis aRmoCenas, aramed axali unarebis ganviTarebas da informaciis daubrkolebel mimocvlas. internetis gamogonebam da virtualuri realobis Seqmnam kacobriobis istoriaSi axali etapi Seqmna. es mimdinare procesia da mis Sedegebze jer naadrevia saubari, Tumca yvelasTvis cxadia misi amJamindeli da momavali masStabebi. ukve naTelia, rom adamianuri yofierebis yvela sfero (politika, ekonomika Tu religia) daukavSirda cifrul transformacias. isic gasagebia, rom uaxloes momavalSi kiberTavdacva da kiberusafrTxoeba saxelmwifoebis mTavar gamowvevad iqceva, kompiuterul teqnologiebTan dakavSirebuli profesiebi – yvelaze moTxovnadad, saxelmwifoebis samxedro Zalisa Tu ekonomikuri ganviTarebis mTavari safuZveli ki xelovnuri inteleqtis ganviTarebis unari an uunaroba gaxdeba. ra cvlilebebs gamoiwvevs cifruli revolucia saerTaSoriso politikaSi? rogor gagrZeldeba procesi? upirveles yovlisa, mimovixiloT rbili Zalis Teoriis avtoris, jozef nais argumentebi. garda wina paragrafSi mimoxiluli terminebisa, XXI saukunis Zalis cvalebadobis ganmsazRvrelad naim daamkvidra kidev ori termini: Zalis tranzicia da Zalis difuzia. Zalis tranziciaSi (Zalis gadasvla, gadatana) avtori moiazrebs Zalis gadasvlas erTi aqtorisgan meore aqtorze. amgvari tendencia istoriulad aprobirebuli procesia: erT imperias meore cvlida, hegemonebi Cndebodnen, sustdebodnen da qrebodnen. 1 fenomens, romelsac naim Zalis tranzicia daarqva, socialuri mecnierebebis bevri Teoria Seiswavlis da sxvadasxvagvarad xsnis.

1 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Future of Power. Public Affairs. NY. 2011. p.113.

naiseuli `Zalis difuzia~1 (Zalis komponentebad daSla) uaxlovdeba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis postmodernul xedvas da gulisxmobs axali aqtorebis gamoCenas saerTaSoriso politikaSi, maT Soris iseTi aqtorebis, rac warmoudgeneli iqneboda oriode aTwleulis win. dRes Zala aRar ukavSirdeba mxolod saxelmwifos, aramed organizaciebs, jgufebs da individebsac ki. esa Tu is saxelmwifo mTeli Tavisi STambeWdavi SeiaraRebis resursiT realuri safrTxis winaSe SeiZleba daayenos kompiuteriT SeiaraRebulma erTma teroristma, erTma hakerma Tu xuTiod kacisgan Semdgarma trolebis jgufma. Tanamedrove globalizebul, teqnologiur saukuneSi, TviT yvelaze Zlevamosili saxelmwifoebic veRar akontroleben procesebs srulad. 2001 wlis 11 seqtembris niu-iorkis teraqtma swored am epoqis dawyeba gvamcno. ra aris aseTi mniSvnelovani cifrul revoluciaSi? erTi saukunis win evropidan aSS-Si darekvis fasi or aseul dolars aWarbebda (rac im epoqisTvis mTel qonebas warmoadgenda), dRes ki ufasoa; sul raRac naxevari saukunis win pirvel gamomTvlel manqanebs mTeli oTaxis farTobi eWira, dRes ki im moculobis informaciaze asjer da aTasjer meti SeiZleba Cveni smartfonis CipSi Caetios; dRes xelovnuri inteleqti wuTebSi qmnis da amuSavebs im moculobis informacias, rasac adamiani mTel saukunes andomebda... magaliTebi bevria, Tumca xazi unda gavusvaT imas, rom cifruli revoluciis mTavar maxasiaTeblad ar unda davasaxeloT mxolod monacemebis raodenobrivi zrda, servisis gaiafeba Tu procesis gamartiveba da daCqareba. cifrul revolucias meoTxe industriul revoluciad swored im mizeziT

1 Zalis tranziciasa da difuziaze msjeloba ix. Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The

Future of Power. Public Affairs. NY. 2011. p. 113-204.

movixseniebT, rom is iwvevs Zalis difuzias, rac sru

liad cvlis adamianuri cxovrebis yvela aspeqts.

teqnologiuri revoluciis pirvel etapze gaCnda SiSi, rom axali teqnologiebi gaxdeboda iaraRi mTavrobebis xelSi da gamoiwvevda informaciis srul centralizebas. 1 realurad, procesi ormxrivad warimarTa da saxeze gvaqvs rogorc Zalauflebis centralizacia, aseve misi decentralizacia. arademokratiul reJimebSi kvlav mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs saxelmwifos mier Zalauflebis centralizaciisTvis axali teqnologiebis gamoyenebis tendenciis zrdas. magaliTad, teqnologiebis borotad gamoyenebisTvis xSirad adanaSauleben CineTs. 2 Tumca es procesi sul ufro da ufro rTuldeba da met da met resurss moiTxovs.

Zalauflebis decentralizacia bunebrivad Rrmavdeba gansakuTrebuli resursebis gamoyenebis gareSe. cifruli decentralizacia upirveles yovlisa mediaze aisaxa. tradiciul media saSualebebs (radios, televizias, beWdur presas) yovelTvis akontroleben garkveuli jgufebi, maTi produqcia dagegmili da sistemuria. interneti ki iZleva ulimito da ukontrolo saqmianobis saSualebas. gaCnda komunikaciis axali formebi da meqanizmebi. internetiT SesaZlebelia komunikacia erTis erTTan (imeili), erTis bevrTan (veb-gverdi, blogi...), bevris erTTan (vikipedia...), bevris bevrTan (socialuri media)...3 media gaxda pirveli indikatori. Tumca procesi grZeldeba sxva sferoebSic. cifrul revoluciaze da

1 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Future of Power. Public Affairs. NY. 2011. p.115. 2 Paul Mozur. China moves towards ~digital totalitarian state” as surveillance technology continues to advance. Independent. December 18. 2019. https:// www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinatechnologysurveillancenetworktotalitarianstatespya9251971.html 3 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Future of Power. Public Affairs. NY. 2011. p.116. 54

fuZnebulma globalizaciam moitana gauTvaliswinebeli gamowvevebi, magaliTad – terorizmi da omis privatizacia1, rac swored axali teqnologiebis Seqmnam gaxada SesaZlebeli... nai Zalis difuziaze aqcents im mizniT akeTebs, rom ukeT dagvanaxos rbili Zalis mzardi resursi da gamoyenebis gardauvaloba: teqnologiebiT aRWurvil terorists verc iaraRiT daamarcxeb da verc birTvuli iaraRis muqariT. nais azriT, msoflio politika sam ganzomilebian Wadraks daemsgavsa, sadac mogebisTvis aucilebelia, rogorc vertikaluri, aseve horizontaluri svlebi. politikosebi, vinc ver xedaven Zalis amgvar difuzias Tanamedrove samyaroSi, `erTganzomilebian moTamaSeebad rCebian samganzomilebian TamaSSi~... 2 nai Zalis difuziaze msjelobisas mravalgzis amaxvilebs yuradRebas rbili Zalis mniSvnelobis zrdaze saerTaSoriso politikaSi. Tumca is Zalis difuzias ar moiazrebs saerTaSoriso politikis Zireuli cvlilebebis gamomwvevad. 3 am sakiTxebze bolo wlebSi ufro metad gaaqtiurda msjeloba. saerTo tendenciiT, Zalis difuziaze dafuZnebul axal realobaSi xisti Zala mTlianad Canacvldeba rbili ZaliT, xolo globalizaciis siswrafe xels Seuwyobs ara unificirebuli warmosaxviTi msoflios Seqmnas, aramed mzard regionalizms da msoflios horizontalur daSrevebas.

Zalis difuziaze msjelobisas, aucilebelia SevexoT globalizaciis process, romelic cifruli revoluciis safuZvelicaa, Tanmdevi procesic da misi xelSemwyobic.

1 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Soft Power. The Means to Success in World Politics. Public Affairs. NY. 2004. p. 21-25, 132 2 ibid. p. 4-5 3 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Future of Power. Public Affairs. NY. 2011. p. 117.

XXI saukunis globalizacia ar aris msoflio istoriaSi erTaderTi globaluri procesi. Rirebulebebis globaluri gavrcelebis magaliTia msoflio religiebi, romis imperiis `yvela gza romSi midis~ imperiuli doqtrinac da naxevari msoflios gawiTlebac civi omis dros. ra aris axali da sruliad gansxvavebuli mimdinare globalizaciis procesSi, rac ase aSfoTebT antiglobalistebs? pasuxi martivia: globalizaciis Serwyma teqnologiur revoluciasTan. dRevandeli globalizacia swrafad da iafad midis ufro Sors da ufro Rrmad, vidre odesme. cnobili magaliTia, rom infeqciuri daavadeba `yvavilis~ msoflioSi gavrcelebas dasWirda 300 weliwadi, aiv virusis gavrcelebas – 30 weli, CineTSi aRmoCenilma axalma koronavirusma ki prevenciis uprecedento zomebis miuxedavad ramdenime dReSi CaaRwia aTasobiT kilometriT daSorebul qveynebSi. winare globalizaciebma gaaiafa produqti (is rac fufunebis sagani iyo Sua saukuneebSi, momdevno saukuneebSi sayovelTao moxmarebis sagnebad iqca). dRevandelma globalizaciam ki yvelasTvis xelmisawvdomi gaxada informacia da aseve gaamartiva narativis kulturuli Targmani. swored amitom, mimdinare globalizaciis ukeT gasaazreblad Cven mas movixseniebT cifrul glo

balizaciad.

saxezea cifruli globalizaciis Tanmdevi uaryofiTi aspeqtebic – gamartivda moparva, dahakva... teraqtis mowyoba... informacia, romelic mxolod saxelmwifos kuTvnileba SeiZleba yofiliyo, sayovelTao gaxda... cifruli globalizaciis efeqti gansxvavdeba regionebis mixedviT, rac qmnis uTanasworobis axal safuZvels. cifruli globalizacia cvlis politikur qmedebebs da Sedegebs. yvelas gvaxsovs axlo aRmosavleTSi feisbuq

iT mobilizebuli revoluciebi Tu ruseTSi gaqceuli eduard snoudeni, romelmac 20 wlis asakSi moaxerxa aSS-is mkacrad klasificirebuli dokumentebis moparva da gamomzeureba. globalizacia, rogorc msoflio unifikacia – civi omis Semdgomi pirveli Taobis antiglobalistebis warmosaxva aRmoCnda. cifrulma revoluciam pirvel etapze marTlac Seuwyo xeli msoflio vesternizaciis process, radgan teqnologiebis Semqmneli pirveli qveynebi swored dasavluri demokratiebia, Tumca cifruli revoluciis Semdeg etapebze movlenebi sxva kuTxiT warimarTa. antidasavluri Zalebis mier atexili gangaSi, romelic globalizaciis mTavar safrTxed liberaluri Rirebulebebis gavrcelebiT msoflio kosmopolituri sazogadoebis Seqmnas moiazrebda, fukuiamas istoriis dasasrulis erTgvari gagrZelebaa. istoriulma ganviTarebam aCvena, rom cifruli SesaZleblobebis gamoyeneba sul male aranaklebi efeqturobiT daiwyes arademokratiulma reJimebma, sxvadasxva saxis fundamentalisturma jgufebma da teroristulma organizaciebmac ki. globalizacias ar aRmoufxvria arc saxelmwifo sazRvrebi, man msoflio mravalganzomilebiani gaxada: gaizarda uTanasworoba mdidrebsa da Raribebs Soris; gaRrmavda RirebulebiTi sxvaoba asakobriv da sxvadasxva ideologiur jgufebs Soris... gamarTlda globalistebis zogierTi varaudi msoflio politikaSi ekonomikuri sakiTxebis mniSvnelobis zrdaze. ekonomikuri urTierTdamokidebulebis meqanizmebi gaizarda komunikaciis formebis gaiafebis kvaldakval. teqnologiurma revoluciam meti mniSvneloba mianiWa transnacionalur korporaciebs da daaknina saxelmwifoebis da mTavrobebis realizmisTvis Cveuli uzenaesoba. uTanasworoba izomeba ara fulis raodenobiT,

aramed teqnologiuri unarebis da informaciis raodenobiT. axali tendenciiT, damkvidrebuli da yvelaze Tvladi ekonomikuri maCveneblebic ki Zalas kargavs, daTvla garTulda cifrebSi radgan produqti da valuta sxvadasxvagvari gaxda. dRes aRar aris imdenad mniSvnelovani ra bunebriv resursebs flob, aramed ramden gigabait informacias flob, ra tipis informacias flob da am konteqstSi vis informacias meti fasi aqvs dRes... cifruli globalizacia cvlis politikis yvela aspeqts da yvela sferos. is zemoqmedebs rogorc saSinao, aseve sagareo politikis warmoebaze. icvleba saSinao da sagareo politikuri qmedebebis korelaciac:

politikuri elitebi veRar grZnoben Tavs daculad saSinao politikaSi, rac sagareo agresiisken ubiZgebT.

`RmerTo Cemo, es diplomatiis dasasrulia~ – ganacxada britaneTis premier-ministrma lordma pamerstonma informaciis telegrafiT miRebis Semdeg XIX saukuneSi. 1 sinamdvileSi, cifruli globalizaciis pirobebSi kidev ufro metad gaizarda zogadad diplomatiis, gansakuTrebiT ki saxalxo diplomatiis roli. ra aris saxalxo diplomatia? Tavad terminis gamogoneba ukavSirdeba edmund gulionis saxels, romelmac termini pirvelad gamoiyena 1965 wels. 2 misi ganmartebiT, saxalxo diplomatia efeqtur, strategiul komunikaciaze dafuZnebuli diplomatiaa, romlis mizania saxalxo azris zegavlenis zrda sagareo politikis warmoebis procesSi. saxalxo diplomatia (Tavisi yvela formiT) efuZneba gamWvirvale komunikacias da udaod rbili Zalis

1 Digital diplomacy, Ediplomacy, Cyber diplomacy. DiPLO. https://www.diplomacy.edu/ediplomacy 2 Nicholas J.Cull. ~Public Diplomacy” before Gullion: the evolution of a phrase.

USC Center on Public Diplomacy. Apr. 18. 2006. https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/publicdiplomacygullionevolutionphrase 58

gavrcelebis mTavari meqanizmia. sainformacio omisgan gansxvavebiT, saxalxo diplomatia (rbili Zala) ar aris dafuZnebuli konfrontaciaze da miznad ar isaxavs „Cvenisini“ diqotomiiis Seqmnas. sainformacio omi (rogorc basri Zalis erTerTi mTavari meqanizmi) qmnis konfrontaciis safuZvlebs sazogadoebaSi, zegavlenis meqanizmebad iyenebs aralegalur qmedebebs (kiberTavdasxma, hakeroba, fsiqologiuri operaciebi...). basri Zalis mesijebi axdens narativis proeqcias da Rirebulebebis gasavrceleblad iyenebs propagandas. sainformacio oms da rbili Zalis deviacias basri Zalis saxiT ufro dawvrilebiT momdevno paragrafSi SevexebiT. cifrulma globalizaciam didi zegavlena moaxdina saxalxo diplomatiasa da zogadad diplomatiaze. 9/11 movlenebis Semdeg sul ufro mzardad gamoiyeneba termini „axali saxalxo diplomatia“. erTerTi pirveli akademiuri msjeloba diplomatiis transformaciis Sesaxeb ukavSirdeba 20012002 wlebSi aSS sagareo politikis forums, romelSic cnobili politikuri liderebi da eqspertebi monawileobdnen. forumis Tavmjdomaris, piter pitersonis TqmiT, diplomatiia moiTxovs ara ubralod cvlilebebs, aramed revoluciur cvlilebebs1 . bolo aTwleulSi gamocemuli monografiebi `axal saxalxo diplomatias~ da `rbil Zalas~ xSirad aigivebs erTmaneTTan. axali saxalxo diplomatiis diskursSi xazgasmulia individis rolis zrda, rac sruliad axal cvlads warmoadgens saerTaSoriso politikaSi. saxelmwifoebs mouwevT Seeguon axal realobas – gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesSi axali, arasaxelmwifoebri

1 Council on Foreign relations. Annual Report. July 1,2001 – June 30, 2002. https:// www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CFR_annual_report_2002_0.pdf

vi aqtorebis CarTulobas. saerTaSoriso politikaSi arasaxelmwifoebrivi aqtorebis gamoCenas gavaigivebT saxalxo diplomatiasTan Tu mxolod mis Semadgenel nawilebad moviazrebT, orive SemTxvevaSi saxezea axali tendencia. 1 axali Taobis diplomatebs mouwevT iseTi unarebis daufleba, rasac maTi winamorbedebi ar floben – maTTvis aravis uswavlebia ucxo qveynis moqalaqeebTan strategiuli komunikaciis specifika. axali saxalxo diploma

tiis mTavari gamowvevaa rbili ZalisTvis damaxasiaTebeli procesebis kontrolis SeuZlebloba.

saxalxo diplomatiis reformireba dakavSirebulia politikuri procesebis gamWvirvalobasTan; politikuri elitebis sazogadoebis winaSe angariSvaldebulebis zrdasTan; informaciis analizze dafuZnebul gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesTan; politikaze zemoqmedebis unaris mqone jgufebis, individebis Tu movlenebis Tvisobrivi meTodebiT Seswavlis sirTuleebTan. aseve axali saxalxo diplomatiis gamowvevad saxeldeba dezinformaciasTan da propagandasTan (basri Zalis meqanizmebi) gamklaveba. axali saxalxo diplomatia moiazrebs ormxriv process – mosmena da dialogi. am konteqstSi aucilebeli gaxda klasikuri samTavrobo diplomatiis gardaqmna cifrul diplomatiad. erTis mxriv, cifruli diplomatia aadvilebs strategiul komunikacias sxvadasxva doneze, magram amave dros, cifruli diplomatia qmnis axal safrTxeebsa da gamowvevebs: procesebis qao

1 Anna Popkova. Nonstate Diplomacy Challenges to Authoritarian States: The

Open Russia Movement. in: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy. v.14. issue 3. 2019.

Special Issue: NonWestern Nonstate Diplomacy. Edited by Natalia Grincheva and Robert Kelley. BRILL Online Publication Date: 20Jun 2019. https://brill. com/view/journals/hjd/14/3/article-p250_5.xml

turobas; RirebulebiTi buStebis Seqmnas da sxv. Zalis difuziam rogorc saxalxo, aseve samTavrobo diplomatia strategiuli komunikaciis gaaqtiurebis da axali midgomebis SemuSavebis aucileblobis winaSe daayena. dezinformaciis gavrcelebis masStabebma da gaxSirebulma informaciulma Sturmma bevri saxelmwifo aiZula ganexorcielebina strategiuli instituciuri cvlilebebi. saxalxo diplomatiis mizani gaxda horizontaluri RirebulebiTi Sreebis gaCena, radgan cifruli globalizacia horizontalurad (Rirebulebebis mixedviT) hyofs adamianebs da ara saxelmwifo sazRvrebis mixedviT. paragrafis dasawyisSi aRvniSneT, rom cifruli revoluciiT gamowveuli Zalis difuzia mimdinare procesia da mis politikur Sedegebze jer sruliad warmoudgenelia saubari, Tumca dRiTi dRe izrdeba literatura, romelic msjelobs cifruli revoluciis zegavlenaze saerTaSoriso politikaSi da Zalis difuziis axal tendenciebze. realistebis azriT, cifruli globalizacia ver moaxdens raime gardamtex cvlilebas da saxelmwifoebi darCebian saerTaSoriso politikis mTavar aqtorebad cifruli globalizaciis pirobebSic, informaciuli revolucia isev Zlierebs gaaZlierebs da Zala kvlav darCeba politikuri urTierTobebis mTavar safuZvlad. liberalebi da konstruqtivistebi aqcents akeTeben msoflio politikis mzardad kompleqsur xasiaTze, sadac saxelmwifoebis garda arasaxelmwifoebrivma aqtorebmac SeiZines Zala. liberalebi ar uaryofen, rom saxelmwifoebi kvlav darCebian saerTaSoriso politikis mTavar aqtorebad, Tumca miaCniaT, rom cifruli revolucia gaaZlierebs demokratiul qveynebs (rogorc Tanamedrove informaciis mTavar generatorebs), rac demokratiuli

mSvidobis ideas met realobas SesZens. demokratiuli mTavrobebi miCveuli arian gaxsnilobas da gamWvirvalobas da amitomac Zalis difuziasTan Tavsebadoba maTTvis ufro martivad misaRwevi iqneba. saerTaSoriso politikaSi rbili Zalis da saxalxo diplomatiis rolis zrdac aseve liberaluri Teoriebis wisqvilze asxams wyals. konstruqtivistebi vestfaliuri sistemis dasrulebas da axali realobis konstruirebas winaswarmetyveleben.

1 cifrul revoluciasTan mimarTebaSi gaCnda axali, da xSirad gaugebari terminebi: cifruli avtoritarizmi, cifruli cenzura, cifruli armia, kiber jeims bondebi.... eleqtronuli mTavroba, Wkviani qalaqebi da mowyobilobebi... am konteqstSi gansakuTrebiT sainteresod gveCveneba axali terminis kiberfeodalizmis damkvidreba. feodalizmisTvis damaxasiaTebeli movlena iyo transnacionaluri kavSirebis damyareba saxelmwifos politikuri sazRvrebis ugulebelyofiT. msgavsi tendenciebi aRkveTa eri-saxelmwifoebis vestfaliuri sistemis Seqmnam. 2 postmodernistebis azriT, Zalis difuzia gvabrunebs warsul tendenciebTan da politikuri elitebi ar arian mzad am gamowvevasTan gasamklaveblad. termini `kiberfeodalizmi~ mzardi popularobiT sargeblobs rogorc akademiur, aseve araakademiur sazogadoebaSi. heSTegi `kiberfeodalizmi~ gamoiyeneba TviTersa da sxva socialur qselebSi.

1 Joseph S. Nye Jr., David A. Welch. Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation. An Introduction to Theory and History. Tenth Edition. Pearson. 2017. p. 336-337 2 naim kiberZalauflebas mTeli Tavi miuZRvna monografiaSi (Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Future of Power. Public Affairs. NY. 2011. p. 113-151). man pirvelma Seadara Zalis difuzia feodalizmis periods (ibid. p.118119). momdevno wlebSi samecniero diskusia aRniSnul tendenciebze intensiuri gaxda da gamoCnda axali terminebi da argumentebi.

informaciuli revolucia rbili Zalis Seqmnis da gamoyenebis saSualebas aZlevs patara saxelmwifoebsa da individebsac. Sesabamisad, patara saxelmwifoebs eZlevaT Sansi axali adgili ipovon saerTaSoriso politikaSi. msgavsi tendencia mzardia da uprecedento. rasakvirvelia, saxelmwifos teqnologiuri winsvla da cifruli revoluciis gamowvevebis gamklavebis unari aucilebeli winapirobaa am konteqstSi. sxva produqtisgan gansxvavebiT, teqnologiuri produqti droSi iafdeba da yvelasTvis xelmisawvdomi xdeba. ekonomistebi iyeneben termins `qselis efeqti~ – mobiluri/smartfoni, interneti Tu kriptovaluta Tanabrad gamouyenebelia, Tu is mxolod Tqven gaqvT. teqnologiis gamomgonebeli qveynebi Tu jgufebi Tavad arian dainteresebuli sakuTari teqnologiuri gamogonebebis gavrcelebaSi da dRes yvelasTvis yvelaferi xelmisawvdomi gaxda. globalistebis terminiT rom vTqvaT, msoflio gaxda `globaluri sofeli~, sadac qveynebis siZliere naklebad gaizomeba sididis da resursebis mixedviT. istoriuli gamocdilebiT, saxelmwifoebi, romlebmac ver moaxerxes cvlilebebisTvis fexis awyoba wina industriuli revoluciebis dros, samudamod an xangrZlivad CamorCnen istoriis svlas. meoTxe industriuli revolucia kidev ufro sastiki iqneba drosTan CamorCenilebis mimarT.

bibliografia:

1. Joseph S. Nye Jr., David A. Welch. Understanding Global Conflict and

Cooperation. An Introduction to Theory and History. Tenth Edition.

Pearson. 2017 2. Joseph S. Nye Jr. Power in a Global Information Age. From Realism to Globalization. Routledge. 2004

3. The New Public Diplomacy. Soft Power in International Relations. edited by Jan Melissen. palgrave macmillan. 2005 4. James Pamment. New Public Diplomacy in the 21st Century: A Comparative Study of Policy and Practice. Routledge. 2013 5. Andreas Sandre. Twitter for Diplomats. DiploFoundation and IstitutoDiplomatico. 2013. https://www.diplomacy.edu/resources/books/ twitterdiplomats 6. Jeremy Rifkin. The Third Industrial Revolution. Palgrave MacMillan. 2011 7. Craig Hayden. The Rhetoric of Soft Power. Public Diplomacy in Global

Contexts. Lexington Books. 2012 8. Anna Popkova. Nonstate Diplomacy Challenges to Authoritarian

States: The Open Russia Movement. in: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy. v.14. issue 3. 2019. Special Issue: NonWestern Nonstate

Diplomacy. Edited by Natalia Grincheva and Robert Kelley. BRILL

Online Publication Date: 20Jun 2019. https://brill.com/view/journals/ hjd/14/3/articlep250_5.xml 9. Natalia Grincheva and Robert Kelley. Introduction: Nonstate Diplomacy from NonWestern Perspectives. in: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy. v.14. issue 3. 2019. Special Issue: NonWestern Nonstate

Diplomacy. Edited by Natalia Grincheva and Robert Kelley. BRILL Online Publication Date: 20 Jun 2019. https://brill.com/view/journals/ hjd/14/3/articlep199_1.xml 10. Council on Foreign Relations. Annual Report. July 1, 2001June 30, 2002. NY. https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CFR_annual_report_2002_0.pdf 11. Bridget Verrekia. Digital Diplomacy and its effects on International

Relations. SIT Graduate Institute. ISP Collection 2596. 2017. https:// digitalcollections.sit.edu/isp_collection/2596 12. USC center on Public Diplomacy https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org 13. USC Center on Public Diplomacy. Annual report 2018-2019. https:// www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/story/cpdreleasesannualreport201819 14. USC center on Public Diplomacy. CPD Blog. https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/newswire/cpdblog_main 15. Bruce’s List. Latest MustReads in Public Diplomacy: August 2019.

USC center on Public Diplomacy. https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/ story/latestmustreadspublicdiplomacyaugust2019 16. Trump Administration Diplomacy. C-SPAN. September 30, 2019. https:// www.cspan.org/video/?4648311/trumpadministrationdiplomacy

17. Digital diplomacy, Ediplomacy, Cyber diplomacy. DiPLO. https://www. diplomacy.edu/ediplomacy 18. Jovan Kurballja. 25 Points for Digital Diplomacy. HUFFPOST. Nov.7, 2016. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/25pointsfordigitaldiplomacy _b_581c78bae4b0334571e099ec 19. Corneliu Bjola. Digital Diplomacy: From Tactics to Strategy. The American Academy in Berlin.2018. https://www.americanacademy.de/digitaldiplomacytacticsstrategy 20. Corneliu Bjola. The ~Dark Side” of digital diplomacy. SPD Blog. Jan 22, 2019. https://www.uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/darksidedigitaldiplomacy 21. Paul Mozur. China moves towards ~digital totalitarian state” as surveillance technology continues to advance. Independent. December 18. 2019. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinatechnologysurveillancenetworktotalitarianstatespya9251971.html

kiTxvebi da davalebebi:

1. eTanxmebi Tu ara mosazrebas, rom mimdinare cifruli revolucia SeiZleba meoTxe industriul revoluciad

Sefasdes? Seni azriT, riTi gansxvavdeba meoTxe industriuli revolucia winare samisgan? 2. ganmarte terminebi: `Zalis tranzicia~, `Zalis difuzia~. imsjele Zalis difuziis negatiur da pozitiur aspeqtebze. rogor fiqrob, ras niSnavs omis privatizacia? moiZie informacia. 3. imsjele cifruli globalizaciis Taviseburebebze. ra gamowvevebis winaSe ayenebs saxelmwifoebs cifruli globalizacia? 4. ganmarte terminebi: `RirebulebiTi buStebi~, `horizontaluri RirebulebiTi Sreebi~. 5. ganmarte winadadeba: `konstruqtivistebi vestfaliuri sistemis dasrulebas da axali realobis konstruirebas winaswarmetyveleben~. 6. ras gulisxmobs termini `axali saxalxo diplomatia~? ratom aigiveben axal saxalxo diplomatias rbil ZalasTan?

7. ras gulisxmobs termini `kiberfeodalizmi~? ra gavlena aqvs kiberfeodalizms saerTaSoriso politikaze? 8. ganmarte winadadeba: msoflio gaxda `globaluri sofeli~, sadac qveynebis siZliere naklebad gaizomeba sididis da resursebis mixedviT. 9. imsjele `progresis paradoqsze~. 10. SearCie magaliTi (qeisi) da imsjele cifruli globalizaciis zegavlenaze saerTaSoriso Tu saxelmwifo politikaSi.

Ø es sainteresoa:

TviTeris diplomatia

cifrul diplomatiaSi sxva mraval axal terminTan erTad, damkvidrda termini TviTeris diplomatia (Twiplomacy). sxvadasxva statistikuri monacemebiT, msoflios politikuri liderebis ori mesamedi TviTeris aqtiuri momxmarebelia. cifruli diplomatiis momxreebis argumentebiT, socialuri qselebiT amomrCevelTan urTierToba politikosebs saSualebas aZlevs Tavisi ideebi da politikuri gadawyvetilebebi efeqturad miitanos rigiT moqalaqemde, amomrCevels (Tu nebismier moqalaqes msoflios nebismieri qveynidan) ki saSualeba eZleva pirdapiri kavSiri qondes politikur liderebTan. zogierTi eqsperti politikur liderebs mouwodebs kidec, ukeT daeuflon socialuri qselebis efeqturad gamoyenebas. strategiuli komunikaciis politikaSi TviTeris rolis zrdasTan erTad dRiTi dRe mravldeba organizaciebi, romlebic ikvleven cifruli diplomatiis (Tu konkretulad, TviTeris diplomatiis) fenomens da gvTavazoben sxvadasxva saintereso statistikur monacemebs. tradici

ulma media saSualebebma daiwyes blogebis warmoeba cifruli diplomatiis Sesaxeb, universitetebma saganmanaTleblo programebSi CarTes cifruli diplomatiis da strategiuli komunikaciis saswavlo kursebi. vebgverdis `TviTeris diplomatia~ (https://twiplomacy. com/) 2019 wlis statistikis mixedviT, TviTeris yvelaze aqtiur momxmareblad saxeldeba aSS prezidenti donald trampi (66 milioni mimdevari); meore adgils ikavebs indoeTis premier ministri narendra modi (51 milioni mimdevari); xolo mesame adgilzea papi franciske (49 milioni mimdevari). ruseTis saprezidento TviTeri 26-e adgils ikavebs 3 mln. mimdevriT. saqarTvelo indeqsSi saerTod ar aris warmodgenili, rac sulac ar niSnavs, rom saqarTveloSi politikuri elita socialur mediasTan ar megobrobs. saqarTvelos Taviseburebad unda CaiTvalos feisbuqis gansakuTrebuli popularoba sxva socialur mediebTan SedarebiT.

TviTeris diplomatiaSi politikuri liderebis garda CarTulni arian diplomatiuri misiebi da warmomadgenlobebi, samTavrobo uwyebebi, saerTaSoriso organizaciebi... TviTeris momxmarebelia iseTi organizaciac ki, rogoricaa aSS centraluri sadazvervo saagento (CIA). 2014 wlis 6 ivniss Tavisi pirveli TviTiT saagentom gamoaqveyna saxumaro teqsti: `arc vuaryofT da arc vadasturebT, rom es aris Cveni pirveli TviTi~. saagentos TviTs mohyva bevri saintereso komentari da gaziarda 280 aTasjer. magaliTad, politikurma korespondentma da analitikosma hovard fainmenma sapasuxo TviTSi Tavadac moswrebulad ixumra: `dRes gavxdi sadazvervo saagentos mimdevari, Tumca vfiqrob saagento aqamdec iyo Cemi mimdevari~. prezident donald trampis TviTerTan urTierToba mudmivi ganxilvis sagania. is cnobilia Tavisi eqscentruli da skandaluri TviTebiT. davasaxeloT ramdenime gaxmaurebuli skandaluri TviTi.

2019 wels prezidents gamouqveynes 2012 wlis skandaluri TviTi qeiT midltonis Sesaxeb: `vis ar unda qeiTis foto gadaiRos da bevri fuli iSovos, Tu qeiTi mzeze SiSveli irujeba. midi qeiT!~ 2018 wels trampma iranis winaaRmdeg sanqciebi daaanonsa TviTerSi cnobili serialis, `samefo karis TamaSebis~ sareklamo posteris stilSi gadaRebuli sakuTari fotosuraTiT (warweriT `sanqciebi axlovdeba~). iranis generalma kasem suleimanim msgavsive posteriT upasuxa instagramSi (warweriT `Sen ver gamtexav~). serialis mflobeli amerikuli telearxi HBO aseve TviTiT gamoexmaura movlenebs da Tavis xumrobaSi xazi gausva saavtoro uflebebis sakiTxs. 2018 wlis noemberSi trampi stumrad imyofeboda parizSi pirveli msoflio omis dasrulebis 100 wlis iubilesTan dakavSirebiT. vizitidan dabrunebis Semdeg trampma TviTiT gaakritika safrangeTis mTavroba: `emanuel makroni sakuTari armiis Seqmnas apirebs evropis dasacavad aSS-s, CineTisa da ruseTisgan. frangebi pirvel da meore msoflio omebSic icavdnen Tavs, magram sanam aSS jarebma parizamde miaRwies, frangebi ukve germanuls swavlobdnen. gadaixade nato-Si an gadi!~ makronma tradiciulad Tavi Seikava trampis TviTze pasuxis gacemisgan. 2020 wlis 6 Tebervals, aSS senatSi prezidentis impiCmentis sakiTxis Cavardnis Semdeg, trampma gamoaqveyna saxumaro video TviTerze, romlis mixedviT prezidentobas samudamod apirebs. trampis TviTebis mimoxilva kargad aCvenebs axali saxalxo diplomatiis specifikas. samTavrobo diplomatiis mier gakeTebuli msgavsi gancxadebebi aucileblad gaxdeboda konfliqtis an omis mizezi. klasikuri diplomatiisgan gansxvavebiT, TviTeris diplomatia saSualebas iZleva iTqvas yvelaferi gulwrfelad, TviTis adresats

ki utovebs arCevans gasces msgavsi pasuxi, an saerTod ar gasces pasuxi. axali saxalxo diplomatia cvlis diplomatiis istoriulad Camoyalibebul da SeTanxmebul CarCoebs. axali saxalxo diplomatia gamowvevaa politikosebisTvis sazogadoebasTan urTierTobis procesSic. 2017 wels kolumbiis universitetis sityvis Tavisuflebis damcvelma institutma sarCeli Seitana trampis administraciis winaaRmdeg, romelmac dabloka trampis TviTeris ramdenime mimdevari kritikuli postebisTvis. sarCelis ganxilva ori wlis manZilze mimdinareobda sxvadasxva instanciaSi da moqalaqeebis gamarjvebiT dasrulda. federaluri sasamarTlos mosamarTlis gancxadebiT, prezidentis TviTeri sajaro sivrcea, sadac sakuTari azris gamoTqmis ufleba aqvs rogorc prezidents, aseve mis mimdevrebsac. prezidents aqvs ufleba sakuTari survilis mixedviT SearCios TviTi sapasuxod an gasaziareblad, magram ar aqvs azris SezRudvis da TviTis dablokvis ufleba.

TviTeris diplomatia, iseve rogorc zogadad cifruli diplomatia, gamowvevad iqca politikis mkvlevarebisTvisac. socialur qselebSi ganTavsebuli informaciis Tavmoyra da klasifikacia rTulia da xSirad SeuZlebelic socialuri qselebis specifikidan gamomdinare.

gamoyenebuli wyaroebi:

1. Twiplomacy. https://twiplomacy.com 2. Twitter.com https://twitter.com/cia/status/474971393852182528 3. donald trampis skandaluri tviti qeiT midltonze. es persona. 4 ivnisi. 2019 https://espersona.ge/article/957 4. trampis tviti da iraneli generlis pasuxi ~samefo karis

TamaSebis” stilSi. NeWposts.11042018 https://www.newposts. ge/?l=G&id=188514 5. Twitter.com https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1062311785787744256

6. Trump slams Macron, France in burst of tweets after Paris visit.

France24. 13/11/2018 https://www.france24.com/en/20181113usatrumpmacronfrancebursttweetsparisvisittwitterwwiwwiigermanywine 7. Dan Mangan. Read the Tweets that got these people blocked on Twitter by President Donald Trump. CNBC. May 23, 2018. https://www. cnbc.com/2018/05/23/readthetweetsthatgotthesepeopleblockedontwitterbypresidentdonaldtrump.html 8. Rebecca Pilar BuckwalterPoza, Philip Cohen, Eugene Gu, Holly

Figueroa, Nicholas Pappas, Brandon Neely. I was Blocked by @realDonaldTrump. March 25, 2019. Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University. https://knightcolumbia.org/content/iwasblockedrealdonaldtrump 9. Grace Panetta. Trump tweets a video implying he’ll be president

‘4EVA’ as his first official response after impeachmenttrial acquittal.

Business Insider. Feb.6, 2020 https://www.businessinsider.com/trumptweetsvideoshowinghimpresidentforeverafteracquittal20202 10. Andreas Sandre. 2018 in Review: top 10 digital diplomacy moments. Digital Diplomacy. December 10, 2018. https://medium.com/ digitaldiplomacy/2018inreviewtop10digitaldiplomacymomentsce9e2745035a

Ø es sainteresoa:

Zalis difuziis gavlena saerTaSoriso politikaze aisaxa sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso dokumentebSi. gansakuTrebiT im tipis angariSebSi, sadac momavlis tendenciebis gansazRvra xdeba. msgavs angariSebs amzadebs ramdenime cnobili saerTaSoriso saeqsperto-kvleviTi organizacia Tu saerTaSoriso organizacia. aSS dazvervis erovnuli sabWos mier momzadebuli angariSi – „progresis paradoqsi“ erT-erTi saintereso nimuSia am konteqstSi. aSS dazvervis erovnuli sabWo (NIC) Seiqmna 1979 wels. misi mizania farTo sazogadoebisTvis xelmisawvdomi sae

qsperto dokumentebis momzadeba. sabWosTan TanamSromloben eqspertebi samTavrobo, akademiuri da arasamTavrobo wreebidan. 1997 wlidan sabWom daiwyo axali tipis dokumentebis – `globaluri tendenciebi~ gamoqveyneba. dokumenti qveyndeba yovel oTx weliwadSi erTxel aSS saprezidento arCevnebis Semdgom vidre prezidentis inauguraciamde da warmoadgens erTgvar sakonsultacio rCevebs axlad arCeuli prezidentebisTvis. dokumenti warmoadgens momavali 15-20 wlis globaluri tendenciebis strategiul mimoxilvas. organizacias aqvs damoukidebeli vebgverdi sxvadasxva qveganyofilebebiT, reportebis arqiviT, sasargeblo bmulebiTa da danarTebiT. specialuri seqcia bavSvebisTvisac ki aris gamoyofili. nebismier internet momxmarebels msoflios nebismieri regionidan SeuZlia komentarebis gakeTeba da interaqcia sxvadasxva formiT. aSS dazvervis erovnuli sabWom pirveli 100-gverdiani angariSi `globaluri tendenciebi 2015: dialogi momavlis Sesaxeb arasamTavrobo eqspertebTan~ gamoaqveyna 2000 wlis dekemberSi. 125-gverdiani angariSi `2020-globaluri momavlis ruka~ gamoqveynda 2004 wlis dekemberSi. 120-gverdiani dokumenti – `globaluri tendenciebi 2025: transformirebuli msoflio~ gamoqveynda 2008 wlis noemberSi. 166-gverdiani dokumenti `globaluri tendenciebi 2030: alternatiuli samyaroebi~ gamoqveynda 2012 wlis dekemberSi. mas wamZRvarebuli aqvs jon meinard qeinsis citata: `azri,

rom momavali iqneba gansxvavebuli awmyosgan iseTi autanelia Cveni standartuli azrovnebisa da qcevisTvis,

rom umravlesoba CvenTagani uars vambobT masze~. dokumenti iwyeba sityvebiT: 2030 wels msoflio radikalurad gansxvavebuli iqneba dRevandelobisgan. dokumentSi megatrendebad gamoyofilia: individualuri SesaZleblobebis zrda; Zalis difuzia; demografiuli cvlilebebi; sakvebis,

wylisa da energo resursebis nakleboba. globaluri wesrigis TamaSis wesebis cvalebadobaSi gansakuTrebuli adgili aqvs miCenili globalizebuli ekonomikis krizisisadmi midrekilebas da gamowvevebs im saxelmwifoebisTvis, romelic fexs ver uwyobs daCqarebul globalur cvlilebebs. aseve saxeldeba konfliqtebis gazrdili albaToba; mzardi regionaluri arastabiluroba; axali teqnologiebis zegavlena saerTaSoriso politikaze... tradiciisamebr, 2016 wlis dekemberSi unda gamoqveynebuliyo 2035 dokumenti. Tumca 2017 wlis ianvarSi gamoqveynda 235 gverdiani angariSi: „globaluri tendenciebi, progresis paradoqsi~ . angariSis momzadebis procesSi analitikosebs konsultaciebi hqondaT 35 qveynis mTavrobebsa da interes jgufebTan: analitikur centrebTan, studentebTan, mewarmeebTan, qalTa organizaciebTan... angariSi gamoirCeva Temebis simravliT da farTo geografiuli arealiT. angariSSi ZiriTadi aqcenti keTdeba Zalauflebis Tvisobriv cvlilebebze (Zalis tranzicia da Zalis difuzia). Zala da Zalaufleba, romelic Sedgeboda Tvladi komponentebisgan (samxedro, ekonomikuri, demografiuli maCveneblebi) ufro metad gaxdeba damokidebuli aramaterialur ganzomilebebze (ideebi, urTierTobebi...) angariSis ZiriTadi daskvnebidan gvinda gamovarCioT ramdenime sakiTxi. 1. axlo momavalSi gaizrdeba daZabuloba rogorc qveynebs SigniT, aseve qveynebs Soris. interesTa SeuTavsebloba civi omis droindel masStabebs miaRwevs. sxvaoba sazogadoebebis RirebulebaTa Soris gaizrdeba. gaCndeba TanamSromlobis da konfrontaciis axali geopolitikuri sivrceebi da e. w. `geopolitikuri ruxi zonebi~. savaWro Tu samxedro TanamSromloba naklebad gaxdeba damokidebuli geografiul siaxloveze. teqnologiur inovaciebze

dafuZnebuli axali produqtebis gaCena gaarTulebs saqonlis Rirebulebis, patentebisa da sabaJo gadasaxadebis tradiciulad arsebul Tvladobas, xarisxis kontrols... 2. demografiuli problemebi axal ganzomilebas miaRwevs – mosaxleobis raodenoba izrdeba, samuSao adgilebi ki mcirdeba teqnologiebis ganviTarebis mizeziT. dasavleTis teqnologiurad ganviTarebul qveynebs muSaxeliT veRar Seavsebs aradasavluri sazogadoebebi, radgan maT amis unar-Cvevebi ar eqnebaT. dasavleTis qveynebSi gagrZeldeba demografiuli dabereba da mosaxleobis raodenobis kleba, ganviTarebad qveynebSi ki piriqiT, moxdeba demografiuli afeTqeba. 25-35 wlis perspeqtivaSi TiTqmis yvela afrikuli qveyana gaormagdeba mosaxleobis raodenobiT. aucilebeli gaxdeba afrikis kontinentis problemebis aqtualizacia. 3. globalizaciis procesi uprecedento gaRrmavebas ganicdis. teqnologiuri revolucia da xelovnuri inteleqtis farTo gamoyeneba axal masStabebs iZens. am procesSi mogebulebi da wagebulebi axali konfiguraciT gadanawildebian did saWadrako doneze. wagebulTa mxares SesaZloa aRmoCndnen Tavad dasavluri sazogadoebebi. marTalia, swored isini floben teqnologiebs, magram teqnologiuri revolucia xels Seuwyobs saSualo fenis ekonomikur stagnacias, rac dasavluri sazogadoebebis politikur-ekonomikuri safuZvelia. sagareo faqtorebic ar iqneba momgebiani dasavleTisTvis. axali geopolitikuri ambiciebi ruseTis, CineTisa da sxva saxelmwifoebis mxridan daasustebs aSS gavlenebs. wagebulTa banakSi arian postsabWoTa qveynebic. maT ver moaxerxes sruli transformacia da civi omis droindeli CamorCenilobis daZleva, uTanasworoba ki mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba Semdgom wlebSi. post-komunisturi ruseTi ekonomikuri da demografiuli problemebis gaRrmavebas nacionalizmis

zrdiTa da sagareo eqspansiis gaaqtiurebiT upasuxebs. mogebulTa mxares aRmoCndeba mzardi ekonomikis qveynebi, gansakuTrebiT CineTi. 4. progresi ekologiis winaaRmdeg: Tu XX saukunis mTavari Temebi iyo saxelmwifoebrivi suvereniteti da adaminis uflebebi, XXI saukuneSi mTavar problemad klimatis cvlileba da resursebis simwire moiazreba. 5. usafrTxoebis sferoSi axal masStabebs miiRebs amJamad arsebuli safrTxeebi: teqnologiuri winsvla xels Seuwyobs terorizmis da masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gavrcelebas da narkogadazidvebs; gamartivdeba geografiulad daSorebul teritoriebze saomari moqmedebebis warmoeba. aqtualuri gaxdeba usafrTxoebis arasamxedro

aspeqtebi, gansakuTrebiT kiberusafrTxoeba.

6. saxelmwifoebis paralelurad individebi da mcire interes-jgufebi SeZleben imoqmedon saxelmwifoebis msgavsad. tradiciuli politikuri Temebi dakargavs aqtualobas da gaCndeba axali Temebi, romelic gagvaocebs Tavisi kompleqsurobiTa da sakiTxTa simravliT. TanamSromlobis tradiciuli formebi Seicvleba da garTuldeba. icvleba realizmze dafuZnebuli 1945 wlis wesrigi, sadac saerTaSoriso politikis mTavar aqtorebs saxelmwifoebi warmoadgenda. msoflio gaxdeba post-modernuli meta-narativebisa da mega-aqtorebis gareSe, rac Tvisobrivad Secvlis omis, mSvidobis, mmarTvelobis, konfliqtis, ekonomikuri Tu samxedro Zlierebis Cveul aRqmas. informaciis simravle da urTierTgamomricxavi xasiaTi Seqmnis mraval realobas. zRvari omsa da mSvidobas

Soris gaxdeba sruliad bundovani.

7. individi, rogorc saerTaSoriso politikis aqtori, sruliad uprecedentoa kacobriobis istoriaSi. gamoikveTeba axali tendenciebi – koordinacia da TanamSromloba individebs, interes-jgufebsa da saxelmwifoe

bs Soris. zesaxelmwifoebis metoqeoba Semcirdeba da asparezze gamoCndeba rogorc regionaluri saxelmwifoebi, aseve arasaxelmwifoebrivi Zalebi. 8. qveynis Sida politikaSi met mniSvnelobas SeiZens axali gamowvevebi. mag. populizmis zrda. gaizrdeba propagandis da dezinformaciis masStabebi. erovnuli xelisuflebebi da politikuri institutebi mzad unda Sexvdnen axal gamowvevebs. qveynis usafrTxo arsebobisTvis gadamwyveti gaxdeba mTavrobis unari miiRos swrafi gadawyvetilebebi myisieri safrTxeebis winaaRmdeg da akontrolos kanonis uzenaesoba. fuli veRar iqneba mmarTvelobis mTavari instrumenti. is sazogadoebebi, romlebic miCveulni arian kanonis uzenaesobas, politikuri procesebis gamWvirvalobas da politikur Tu socialur pluralizms, ufro advilad gauZleben mzard turbulentobas. Tumca, politikuri liderobis deficiti mniSvnelovnad gaarTulebs axal gamowvevebTan brZolis SesaZleblobas. `progresis paradoqsi~ gvTavazobs rekomendaciebsac CamoTvlili gamowvevebis dasaZlevad. didi investireba unda moxdes diplomatiis da ganaTlebis sferoebSi, radgan ganaTleba da teqnologiuri inovaciebi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis gardauvali safuZveli gaxdeba. rac Seexeba diplomatias, unda moxdes strategiuli komunikaciis gaRrmaveba. unda vaRiaroT cvlilebebi romelic moxda da moxdeba momavalSi. gamoviCinoT politikuri moqniloba da velaparakoT yvelas. unda Seiqmnas axali aliansebi da koaliciebi sxvadasxva Temis garSemo.

gamoyenebuli wyaroebi:

1. National Intelligence Council. Global Trends. https://www.dni.gov/ index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=398&Itemid=776 2. Global Trends 2015: A dialogue about the future with nongovernment experts. A publication of the National Intelligence Council.