Current Issues / Actualidad

Dr. Gene Bigler, Stockton, CA

A Hemisphere in Turmoil

en esteroides” y los trastornos que lo acompañan varían enormemente. En Chile, un aumento de cuatro centavos en las tarifas del metro desencadenó más de dos meses de manifestaciones, violencia anómica y enfrentamientos con la policía. En Bolivia, un intento por el aspirante a dictador Evo Morales de manipular las elecciones y quebrantar su previa promesa de no buscar un cuarto mandato como presidente desencadenó una reacción popular que lo obligó a huir del país. En Colombia, las continuas oleadas de millones de inmigrantes venezolanos y el disgusto por la disminución de la seguridad a raíz del histórico acuerdo de paz con las guerrillas de las FARC ha obligado al país a cerrar sus fronteras e instituir otras medidas draconianas. En Ecuador, la eliminación de un subsidio del gobierno para la gasolina y el diésel aumentó repentina e inesperadamente el costo del transporte en todo el país.

Aunque no ha habido (quizás todavía) el mismo patrón de manifestaciones disruptivas y eventos dramáticos continúa a la vuelta

As the controversial impeachment trial of President Donald Trump deepens cleavage and political controversy in the United States, most Americans seem unaware of the waves of political turmoil that have been rocking countries from Chile to Mexico. Both democratic and authoritarian regimes have had increasing trouble over the last few months. These events raise anxious questions about where disturbances will arise next, how much impact they are having, and whether there are some common causes for the trend. Indeed, the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, was so impressed with these events that it devoted the entire contents of the just published winter edition of the Wilson Quarterly to understanding the depth and ferocity of the rage displayed in just five of the countries.

Venezuela has been a source of disturbing news for years as economic deterioration and the dictatorial abuses of the Maduro regime have resulted in the emigration of over four million Venezuelans. Yet the attempt to prevent the internationally recognized President Juan Guaidó from reaching the National Assembly at the start of the New Year has aroused a new round of convulsions. The U.S. and the other 59 countries that support Guaidó increasingly fear that the effort to restore democracy there may yet again be on the verge of failure and further spread Venezuelan misery and still more refugees to other countries.

More surprising and just as alarming are the months of tumult in Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Haiti, Ecuador, and the deepening sense of crisis in Mexico and Brazil. If migration, international criminal activity and

gang violence in the three small countries of the northern triangle of Central America (Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador) can be the source of so much consternation in the U.S., how great is the potential spillover from these much larger countries? The immediate causes of activism on steroids and the accompanying disturbances vary greatly. In Chile, a four cent increase in subway fares unleashed more than two months of demonstrations, anomic violence and clashes with the police. In Bolivia an attempt by want-to-be dictator Evo Morales to rig elections and violate an earlier pledge not to seek a fourth term as president unleashed a popular backlash that forced him to flee the country. In Colombia continuing waves of millions of Venezuelan immigrants and disgust at declining security in the wake of the historic peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas has forced the country to shut its borders and institute other draconian measures. In Ecuador, the elimination of a government subsidy for gasoline and diesel suddenly and unexpectedly raised the cost of transportation across the country.

Although there has not (perhaps yet) been the same pattern of disruptive demonstrations and dramatic events in Mexico and Brazil, the new Presidents of the two largest nations in the region also face increasing senses of crisis driven by events both within and from outside the country. In Mexico, despite President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s historic majority support, violence and crime, especially homicides, have actually increased substantially despite his policy of “hugs, not bullets.” The economy remains stagnant even with the promise of the revised trade pact with the U.S. and Canada, and his cooperation with the Trump administration in holding back hundreds of thousands of Central American refugees is increasingly controversial.

In Brazil, new president Jair Bolsonaro forced a reform law to privatize pensions through Congress that Economics Minister Paulo Guedes continued on next page

Gene Bigler, PhD Writer & consultant on global affairs, former professor, retired diplomat A Hemisphere in Turmoil continued from previous page touted as key to reviving an economy that has been stagnant for a decade. However, before any further “Chicago School” reforms could be instituted in what is now considered a lame duck legislature, former President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva was released from prison while on appeal of his conviction for corruption. The still highly popular former labor leader is now mobilizing domestic opposition forces. At the same time international climate change advocates are pressuring Bolsonaro to reverse his policies aimed at increasing the exploitation of the country’s already endangered rainforests, and the burden of over a million Venezuelan refugees begins to press hard even on a country as large as Brazil. Notwithstanding the differences in these cases, three factors that have also been increasingly at play in the U.S. stand out behind the turmoil in every case. They are, first, concerns related to corruption and abuse of power by elected presidents and other political leaders. Second, revulsion grows against the tolerance and even promotion by national leaders of unwanted foreign meddling in elections and policy decisions, and third, there is increasing pushback against government actions that accentuate economic inequality. The Chilean experience is especially instructive. Despite Chile’s remarkable 30-year record of economic growth and democratic revival following the 1990 fall of the Pinochet military dictatorship, the system of predatory capitalism that he instituted steadily raised inequality to alarming proportions. Most Chileans still loath the “Chicago School” economic reforms imported from the U.S. that led to the privatization of almost everything. Thus even if the export led strategy did work to promote growth and nearly full employment, it also produced the nation’s first coterie of world class billionaires. In contrast, the once vibrant middle class and well educated working class were increasingly strangled while access to quality education, housing, and health care fell beyond the reach of most Chileans. When one of those billionaires, Sebastian Piñera, recovered the presidency two years ago because of the fragmented electorate, the stage was set for explosion. When he raised subway fares by just four cents for poor children to attend school and minimum wage workers to reach

18 Joaquín FEBRUAR Y 2020 Un Hemisferio en Turbulencia viene de la vuelta en México y Brasil, los nuevos presidentes de las dos naciones más grandes de la región también enfrentan crecientes sensaciones de crisis impulsadas por eventos tanto dentro como fuera del país. En México, a pesar del histórico apoyo mayoritario del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, la violencia y el crimen, especialmente los homicidios, en realidad han aumentado sustancialmente a pesar de su política de “abrazos, no balas”. La economía sigue estancada incluso con la promesa del pacto comercial revisado con Estados Unidos y Canadá, y su cooperación con la administración Trump para retener a cientos de miles de refugiados centroamericanos es cada vez más controvertida.

En Brasil, el nuevo presidente Jair Bolsonaro forzó una ley de reforma para privatizar las pensiones a través del Congreso que el ministro de Economía, Paulo Guedes, promocionó como clave para revivir una economía que ha estado estancada durante una década. Sin embargo, antes de que se pudieran instituir nuevas reformas de la “Escuela de Chicago” en lo que ahora se considera una legislatura que va de salida, el ex presidente Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva fue liberado de prisión mientras apelaba su condena por corrupción. Ese ex líder sindical es todavía muy popular y está movilizando fuerzas domésticas de oposición. Al mismo tiempo, los defensores internacionales del cambio climático están presionando a Bolsonaro para que revierta sus políticas encaminadas a aumentar la explotación de NOTES / NOTAS 1.Maria Victoria Murcillo, “Why is South America in turmoil? An overview,” Americas Quarterly, Nov. 19, 2019, and Rafael Romo, “Five keys to understanding Latin America’s turmoil,” CNN , December 4, 2019. 2 Venezuela, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia: https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/the-powerof-protest/postcards-from-the-edge/?emci=40ed83cb6b3d-ea11-a1cc-2818784d084f&emdi=2359b98be43d-ea11-a1cc-2818784d084f&ceid=16564 3 A similar action in Venezuela in 1989 launched the “Caracazo” rioting that led to the rise of Hugo Chavez to power and the eventual collapse of the country’s democracy and implosion of its economy. concludes on page 27 their jobs, outrage at such unfairness burst into months of pandemonium. Some believe that Chile’s democracy may even be endangered. The contrast between the current trends in Latin America with the events of the 1990s and first years of this century could not be greater. That era was known as The Fourth Wave of Democracy because by the turn of the century just a single country, Cuba, was left with a leader not chosen in fair and competitive elections. Economic prosperity was much more widely spread, and regional cooperation was at an unprecedented level. Despite earlier resistance to U.S. leadership, the Hemisphere enthusiastically embraced a democratic charter advanced by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and simultaneously reached out to support the U.S. in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Today, support for democracy has declined precipitously and trust in democratic institutions, such as Congress and the Presidency, is at similar low levels to those in the U.S. President Trump was avidly courted by leaders in Latin las selvas tropicales en peligro de extinción del país, y la carga de más de un millón de refugiados venezolanos comienza a presionar —incluso en un país tan grande como Brasil. A pesar de las diferencias en estos casos, tres factores —que también han estado cada vez más en juego en los Estados Unidos— se destacan detrás de la agitación en todos los casos. En primer lugar, preocupaciones relacionadas con la corrupción y el abuso de poder por parte de presidentes electos y otros líderes políticos. En segundo lugar, crece la repulsión contra la tolerancia e incluso la promoción por parte de los líderes nacionales de la intromisión extranjera no deseada en las elecciones y las decisiones políticas, y en tercer lugar, hay un rechazo cada vez mayor contra aquellas acciones del gobierno que acentúan la desigualdad económica.

La experiencia chilena es especialmente aleccionadora. A pesar del notable historial de 30 años de crecimiento económico y reactivación democrática de Chile después de la caída de la dictadura militar de Pinochet en 1990, el sistema de capitalismo depredador que éste instituyó, aumentó la desigualdad de manera constante y a proporciones alarmantes. La mayoría de los chilenos aún detestan las reformas económicas de la “Escuela de Chicago” importadas de los Estados Unidos que llevaron a la privatización de casi todo. Por lo tanto, incluso si la estrategia dirigida por la exportación funcionó para promover el crecimiento y el empleo casi pleno, también produjo la primera cuadrilla de multimillonarios de clase mundial de la nación. Por el contrario, la clase trabajadora, que alguna vez fue vibrante y bien educada, fue estrangulada cada vez más, mientras que el acceso a educación de calidad, vivienda y atención médica quedó fuera del alcance de la mayoría de los chilenos. Cuando uno de esos multimillonarios, Sebastián Piñera, recuperó la presidencia hace dos años debido al fragmentado electorado, el escenario estaba listo para una explosión. Cuando este aumentó las tarifas del metro en solo cuatro centavos para que los niños pobres asistieran a la escuela y los trabajadores con salario mínimo llegarán a concluye en pág.27