current issues
Dr. Gene Bigler, Stockton, CA
A Hemisphere in Turmoil
A
en esteroides” y los trastornos que lo acompañan varían enormemente. En Chile, un aumento de cuatro centavos en las tarifas del metro desencadenó más de dos meses de manifestaciones, violencia anómica y enfrentamientos con la policía. En Bolivia, un intento por el aspirante a dictador Evo Morales de manipular las elecciones y quebrantar su previa promesa de no buscar un cuarto mandato como presidente desencadenó una reacción popular que lo obligó a huir del país. En Colombia, las continuas oleadas de millones de inmigrantes venezolanos y el disgusto por la disminución de la seguridad a raíz del histórico acuerdo de paz con las guerrillas de las FARC ha obligado al país a cerrar sus fronteras e instituir otras medidas draconianas. En Ecuador, la eliminación de un subsidio del gobierno para la gasolina y el diésel aumentó repentina e inesperadamente el costo del transporte en todo el país. Aunque no ha habido (quizás todavía) el mismo patrón de manifestaciones disruptivas continúa a la vuelta y eventos dramáticos
s the controversial impeachment trial of President Donald Trump deepens cleavage and political controversy in the United States, most Americans seem unaware of the waves of political turmoil that have been rocking countries from Chile to Mexico. Both democratic and authoritarian regimes have had increasing trouble over the last few months. These events raise anxious questions about where disturbances will arise next, how much impact they are having, and whether there are some common causes for the trend. Indeed, the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, was so impressed with these events that it devoted the entire contents of the just published winter edition of the Wilson Quarterly to understanding the depth and ferocity of the rage displayed in just five of the countries. Venezuela has been a source of disturbing news for years as economic deterioration and the dictatorial abuses of the Maduro regime have resulted in the emigration of over four million Venezuelans. Yet the attempt to prevent the internationally recognized President Juan Guaidó from reaching the National Assembly at the start of the New Year has aroused a new round of convulsions. The U.S. and the other 59 countries that support Guaidó increasingly fear that the effort to restore democracy there may yet again be on the verge of failure and further spread Venezuelan misery and still more refugees to other countries. More surprising and just as alarming are the months of tumult in Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Haiti, Ecuador, and the deepening sense of crisis in Mexico and Brazil. If migration, international criminal activity and
gang violence in the three small countries of the northern triangle of Central America (Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador) can be the source of so much consternation in the U.S., how great is the potential spillover from these much larger countries? The immediate causes of activism on steroids and the accompanying disturbances vary greatly. In Chile, a four cent increase in subway fares unleashed more than two months of demonstrations, anomic violence and clashes with the police. In Bolivia an attempt by want-to-be dictator Evo Morales to rig elections and violate an earlier pledge not to seek a fourth term as president unleashed a popular backlash that forced him to flee the country. In Colombia continuing waves of millions of Venezuelan immigrants and disgust at declining security in the wake of the historic peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas has forced the country to shut its borders and institute other draconian measures. In Ecuador, the elimination of a government subsidy for gasoline and diesel suddenly and unexpectedly raised the cost of transportation across the country. Although there has not (perhaps yet) been the same pattern of disruptive demonstrations and dramatic events in Mexico and Brazil, the new Presidents of the two largest nations in the region also face increasing senses of crisis driven by events both within and from outside the country. In Mexico, despite President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s historic majority support, violence and crime, especially homicides, have actually increased substantially despite his policy of “hugs, not bullets.” The economy remains stagnant even with the promise of the revised trade pact with the U.S. and Canada, and his cooperation with the Trump administration in holding back hundreds of thousands of Central American refugees is increasingly controversial. In Brazil, new president Jair Bolsonaro forced a reform law to privatize pensions through Congress that Economics Minister Paulo Guedes continued on next page FEBRUARY 2020 Joaquín 17
