The Latino Vote / El Voto Latino

Dissecting The Latino Vote ed ramírez, linden, ca

it was projected that Latinos would be the largest minority group to vote in the 2020 presidential election, and with 32 million eligible voters, they could have a significant impact on the election outcome. the presidential campaigns surfaced issues and phenomenon, some old some new, that shed light on the potential of the Latino vote now and in the future. this article will focus on the following issues and phenomenon: the Latino vote in swing states, most important issues, party affiliation, and factors that might affect voter turnout. these will be converted into questions and discussed below.

Did the Latino vote determine election outcomes in the “swing states?”

in u.s. presidential elections swing states can determine the outcome, and the Latino vote in these states could provide the margin of Center identificó que la victory. often called “battle ground” or more Economía ocupa el primer lugar en recently “purple” states, meaning a near equal importancia entre los votantes latinos inscri- number of Red (republican) and Blue (Demotos —con la Salud y el brote de COVID-19 cratic) voters, these states could reasonably be siguiéndole de cerca. En general, los temas won by either party’s presidential candidate by relevantes se clasificaron de la siguiente a small margin of votes. manera: Economía 80%, Atención Médica Of the 12 perennial purple states six have 76%, Brote de Coronavirus 72%, Desigualdad been singled out as key for winning the 2020 Racial y Étnica 66%, Nombramientos en la presidential election including: Arizona, FlorCorte Suprema 64%, Crimen Violento 63%, ida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina Cambio Climático 60%, Inmigración 59 %, and Wisconsin. together they represent a total etc. La lista revela más diversidad de proble- of 90 electoral votes. Of the six, Arizona with mas de lo que cabría esperar, lo que hace que 1,188,000 and Florida with 3,143,000 have el comportamiento de la votación sea más the largest eligible Latino voter populations, difícil de predecir. Sorprendentemente, la and Trump won these states by 91,234 and inmigración se ubicó detrás de una serie de 112,000 votes respectively in 2016. In 2020, otros problemas.

Dado que el 55% de los latinos siguen por el aborto. Sin embargo, algunos clérigos siendo católicos, la controversia creada por subieron al púlpito declarando que sería un la guía electoral de la Conferencia de obispos “pecado mortal” votar por biden. PreocupaCatólicos de los Estados Unidos (USCCB), dos, altos funcionarios del Vaticano criticaron que enfatiza considerar el aborto, tuvo nega- públicamente a los sacerdotes por hacerlo. El tivas implicaciones para Biden, el candidato efecto del tema-aborto en los electores latinos a favor de esa opción. El erudito católico de católicos puede explicar un cambio hacia la Universidad de Georgetown, John Carr, trump si así ocurriese. argumentó que los obispos estadounidenses ¿Qué papel jugó la afiliación a un partido intencionalmente ignoraron la posición del en el resultado de la elección? Papa Francisco: “las vidas de los pobres, los Se podría suponer que, como grupo miya nacidos, los indigentes, los abandonados y noritario, los latinos se identificasen con el los desfavorecidos” son tan sagradas y dignas partido que ha liderado la lucha por sus derede preocupación como las vidas amenazadas chos civiles, el Partido continúa a la vuelta even North Carolina with its 338,000 eligible Latino voters, where Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, became important to the Trump and biden campaigns.

Was there an issue that affected how Latinos would vote?

A recent Pew Research Center study found that the Economy ranked highest in importance among registered Latino voters with Health Care and the COVID-19 Outbreak close behind. Overall, the issues of importance ranked as follows: Economy 80%, Health Care 76%, Corona Virus Outbreak 72%, Racial and Ethnic Inequality 66%, Supreme Court Appointments 64%, Violent Crime 63%, Climate Change 60%, Immigration 59%, etc. The list reveals more diversity of issues than might be expected making voting behavior more difficult to predict. Surprisingly, immigration ranked behind a host of other issues.

Given that 55% of Latinos are still Catholic, the controversy created by the United states’ Conference of Catholic bishops (usCCb) voter guide that emphasized consideration of abortion had negative implications for biden the Pro-Choice candidate. Georgetown University Catholic Scholar John Carr argued, that the American bishops intentionally ignored Pope Francis’ position that “lives of the poor, those already born, the destitute, the abandoned, and the underprivileged” are just as sacred and as worthy of concern as the lives threatened by abortion. However, some clergy took to the pulpit declaring that it would be a “mortal sin” to vote for Biden. Concerned, top Vatican officials publicly criticized the priests for doing so. the effect of the abortion issue on Catholic Latino voters may explain a shift towards trump if it occurs.

What role did party affiliation play in the outcome of the election?

one might assume that Latinos as a minority group would identify with the party that has led the fight for their civil rights, the Democratic Party, and they could swing the election in the purple states in favor of biden if they voted as a bloc. However, not only are there a substantial number of registered republican Latinos, continued on next page november 2020 Joaquín 21

Dissecting the Latino Vote

continued from previous page both Catholics and Evangelicals have moved to the political right over the abortion issue. Additionally, while there are a majority registered Democratic (62%), thirty-four percent of Latinos are registered republican.

Was there enough enthusiasm for Trump’s or Biden’s candidacy among Latino voters to increase voter turnout in the purple states?

Obviously, a low voter turnout dilutes the impact of the Latino vote. the national Latino voter turnout in 2016 was a disappointing 47.6%. Will 2020 be different? There was definite enthusiasm for Trump among some Latino Evangelicals. In Arizona, Pastor Jose rivera observed that one quarter to one third of his Evangelical congregation, made up almost entirely of Latinos with roots in Mexico, favored trump. some even seeing trump as a “Messiah” who “…is protecting their religious freedom and appointing judges who oppose abortion.”

On the other hand, within Pastor Rivera’s congregation two-thirds to three-quarters don’t support trump with some seeing him as “predator.” This raises the question, could this extreme perception be more pervasive among Latino voters? If so, this could drive voter turnout.

Pastor rivera’s party of choice has been Republican for most of his life, but he felt betrayed by the party coming up to the 2020 election. He felt “politically homeless” betrayed by trump and uncomfortable with the position of Democrats on many issues. this label has also been applied to Catholics because neither political party “completely reflects Catholic social teaching.” If more widespread, this sentiment might lower voter enthusiasm and turnout.

In conclusion, strictly by the numbers the assertion that the Latino vote could determine the outcome of the election in the six battleground states is plausible. A poll by Latino Decisions (political opinion researchers) in April found that 59% supported Biden and 22% Trump. In the month leading up to the election political observers projected that trump will receive about a third of the Latino vote at most. In the final analysis, the question will be did the issues (e.g. economy, pandemic, healthcare, abortion) sway the Latino vote to the right or left on the political spectrum, and did they increase Latino voter enthusiasm and voter turnout? A low voter turnout, similar to 2016 (47.6%), diminishes the impact of their vote.

Analizando el Voto Latino

viene de la vuelta Demócrata, y podrían inclinar las elecciones en los estados púrpura a favor de biden si votaran como bloque. sin embargo, no solo hay un sustancial número de latinos republicanos inscritos, sino que tanto católicos como evangélicos se han movido hacia la derecha política por el tema del Ed Ramírez aborto. Además, si bien linden, ca hay una mayoría demócrata inscrita (62%), el treinta y cuatro por ciento de los latinos están inscritos como republicanos.

¿Hubo suficiente entusiasmo por la candidatura de Trump o Biden entre los votantes latinos como para aumentar la participación electoral en los estados púrpura?

Obviamente, una baja participación de votantes diluye el impacto del voto latino. La participación nacional de votantes latinos en el 2016 fue un decepcionante 47,6%. ¿Será diferente en el 2020? Hubo un claro entusiasmo por trump entre algunos latinos evangélicos. En Arizona, el pastor José Rivera observó que entre un cuarto y un tercio de su congregación evangélica, compuesta casi en su totalidad por latinos con raíces en México, favorecía a trump. Algunos incluso ven a trump como un “Mesías” que “...está protegiendo su libertad religiosa y nombrando jueces que se oponen

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Bibliography

2016 Presidential election results: donald J. trump

Wins. (2017, August 9). Retrieved from new York times election 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/ elections/2016/results/president carrasquillo, a. (2020, July 10). latinos could swing the 2020 election in these six states. Retrieved from newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/latinoscould-swing-2020-election-these-six-states-1516991 Fearnow, b. (2020, september 3). vatican consultant urges u.s. Priests to refrain From telling People voting for Joe biden is a ‘mortal sin’. retrieved from newsweek : https://www.newsweek.com/vaticanconsultant-urges-us-priests-refrain-telling-peoplevoting-joe-biden-mortal-sin-1529545 Fordham, e. (2020, october 19). latino vote crucial as democrats try to turn north carolina. retrieved from

Fox news: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/northcarolina-latino-voter-turnout-joe-biden Glueck, K. (2020, september 25). How trump and biden are courting the catholic vote. retrieved from new York times: https://www.nytimes. com/2020/09/25/us/politics/catholic-voters-trumpbiden.html

al aborto”.

Por otro lado, dentro de la congregación del pastor Rivera, dos tercios o tres cuartos no apoyan a trump y algunos lo ven como un “depredador”. Esto plantea la pregunta, ¿podría esta extrema percepción estar más generalizada entre el elector latino? Si así fuese... podría impulsar su participación en la elección.

El partido favorecido por el pastor rivera ha sido el republicano durante la mayor parte de su vida, pero se sintió traicionado por el partido antes de las elecciones de 2020. Se sintió “políticamente sin hogar”: traicionado por trump e incómodo con la posición de los demócratas en muchos aspectos. Esta etiqueta también se ha aplicado a los católicos porque ninguno de los partidos políticos “refleja completamente la enseñanza social católica”. Si fuese más generalizado, este sentimiento podría reducir el entusiasmo y la participación del votante latino.

En conclusión —y estrictamente basándose en los números— la afirmación de que el voto latino podría determinar el resultado de las elecciones en los seis estados-campo de batalla es aceptable. una encuesta de Latino Decisions (investigadores de opinión política) en abril mostró que el 59% apoyaba a Biden y el 22% a Trump. En el mes previo a las elecciones, los analistas políticos proyectaron que Trump recibiría, como máximo, alrededor de un tercio del voto latino. En el análisis final, las preguntas serán a) si los problemas (por ejemplo, economía, pandemia, atención médica, aborto) influyeron en el voto latino hacia la derecha o la izquierda en el espectro político, y b) ¿aumentaron el entusiasmo y la participación de los votantes latinos? Una baja participación, similar a la de 2016 (47,6%), disminuye el impacto de su voto..