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Dissecting The Latino Vote Ed Ramírez, Linden, CA
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t was projected that Latinos would be the largest minority group to vote in the 2020 presidential election, and with 32 million eligible voters, they could have a significant impact on the election outcome. The presidential campaigns surfaced issues and phenomenon, some old some new, that shed light on the potential of the Latino vote now and in the future. This article will focus on the following issues and phenomenon: the Latino vote in swing states, most important issues, party affiliation, and factors that might affect voter turnout. These will be converted into questions and discussed below.
Center identificó que la Economía ocupa el primer lugar en importancia entre los votantes latinos inscritos —con la Salud y el brote de COVID-19 siguiéndole de cerca. En general, los temas relevantes se clasificaron de la siguiente manera: Economía 80%, Atención Médica 76%, Brote de Coronavirus 72%, Desigualdad Racial y Étnica 66%, Nombramientos en la Corte Suprema 64%, Crimen Violento 63%, Cambio Climático 60%, Inmigración 59 %, etc. La lista revela más diversidad de problemas de lo que cabría esperar, lo que hace que el comportamiento de la votación sea más difícil de predecir. Sorprendentemente, la inmigración se ubicó detrás de una serie de otros problemas. Dado que el 55% de los latinos siguen siendo católicos, la controversia creada por la guía electoral de la Conferencia de Obispos Católicos de los Estados Unidos (USCCB), que enfatiza considerar el aborto, tuvo negativas implicaciones para Biden, el candidato a favor de esa opción. El erudito católico de la Universidad de Georgetown, John Carr, argumentó que los obispos estadounidenses intencionalmente ignoraron la posición del Papa Francisco: “las vidas de los pobres, los ya nacidos, los indigentes, los abandonados y los desfavorecidos” son tan sagradas y dignas de preocupación como las vidas amenazadas
Did the Latino vote determine election outcomes in the “swing states?” In U.S. presidential elections swing states can determine the outcome, and the Latino vote in these states could provide the margin of victory. Often called “battle ground” or more recently “purple” states, meaning a near equal number of Red (Republican) and Blue (Democratic) voters, these states could reasonably be won by either party’s presidential candidate by a small margin of votes. Of the 12 perennial purple states six have been singled out as key for winning the 2020 presidential election including: Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Together they represent a total of 90 electoral votes. Of the six, Arizona with 1,188,000 and Florida with 3,143,000 have the largest eligible Latino voter populations, and Trump won these states by 91,234 and 112,000 votes respectively in 2016. In 2020, por el aborto. Sin embargo, algunos clérigos subieron al púlpito declarando que sería un “pecado mortal” votar por Biden. Preocupados, altos funcionarios del Vaticano criticaron públicamente a los sacerdotes por hacerlo. El efecto del tema-aborto en los electores latinos católicos puede explicar un cambio hacia Trump si así ocurriese. ¿Qué papel jugó la afiliación a un partido en el resultado de la elección? Se podría suponer que, como grupo minoritario, los latinos se identificasen con el partido que ha liderado la lucha por sus derecontinúa a la vuelta chos civiles, el Partido
even North Carolina with its 338,000 eligible Latino voters, where Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, became important to the Trump and Biden campaigns. Was there an issue that affected how Latinos would vote? A recent Pew Research Center study found that the Economy ranked highest in importance among registered Latino voters with Health Care and the COVID-19 Outbreak close behind. Overall, the issues of importance ranked as follows: Economy 80%, Health Care 76%, Corona Virus Outbreak 72%, Racial and Ethnic Inequality 66%, Supreme Court Appointments 64%, Violent Crime 63%, Climate Change 60%, Immigration 59%, etc. The list reveals more diversity of issues than might be expected making voting behavior more difficult to predict. Surprisingly, immigration ranked behind a host of other issues. Given that 55% of Latinos are still Catholic, the controversy created by the United States’ Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) voter guide that emphasized consideration of abortion had negative implications for Biden the Pro-Choice candidate. Georgetown University Catholic Scholar John Carr argued, that the American Bishops intentionally ignored Pope Francis’ position that “lives of the poor, those already born, the destitute, the abandoned, and the underprivileged” are just as sacred and as worthy of concern as the lives threatened by abortion. However, some clergy took to the pulpit declaring that it would be a “mortal sin” to vote for Biden. Concerned, top Vatican officials publicly criticized the priests for doing so. The effect of the abortion issue on Catholic Latino voters may explain a shift towards Trump if it occurs. What role did party affiliation play in the outcome of the election? One might assume that Latinos as a minority group would identify with the party that has led the fight for their civil rights, the Democratic Party, and they could swing the election in the purple states in favor of Biden if they voted as a bloc. However, not only are there a substantial number of registered Republican Latinos, continued on next page novemBER 2020 Joaquín 21
