4.5. Prophets of Doom and Gloom In 1970, quite exactly 50 years ago, the first Earth Day promoted ice age fears, and environmentalist Nigel Calder warned "The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind" and C. C. Wallen of the World Meteorological Organization said "The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed". On the same first Earth Day Kenneth E. F. Watt "If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1900, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000... This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age" quotes from (Markovsky, 2016). In the early seventies, two prominent scientists working for the Institute for Space Studies, Goddard Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the USA published in Science that: «From our calculation, a doubling of CO2 produces a tropospheric temperature change of 0.8°K (12). However, as more CO2 is added to the atmosphere, the rate of temperature increase is proportionally less and less, and the increase eventually levels off. Even for an increase in CO2 by a factor of 10, the temperature increase does not exceed 2.5 °K. Therefore, the runaway greenhouse effect does not occur because the 15-µm CO2 band, which is the main source of absorption, "saturates," and the addition of more CO2 does not substantially increase the infrared opacity of the atmosphere». (Rasool and Schneider, 1971). Which is correct and concluded that (which is not so far): «However, it is projected that man's potential to pollute will increase six- to eightfold in the next 50 years (24). If this increased rate of injection of particulate matter in the atmosphere should raise the present global background opacity by a factor of 4, our calculations suggest a decrease in global temperature by as much as 3.5°K. Such a large decrease in the average surface temperature of Earth, sustained over a period of few years, is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age». (Rasool and Schneider, 1971). These dire predictions which have been made over the last five decades have regularly been emphasized by the mass media and for example the previous «ice-age coming» quote aforementioned was relayed by Victor Cohn, Washington Post Staff Writer, in The Washington Post Times Herald (1959-1973); Jul 9, 1971 with the paper « U.S. Scientist Sees New lce Age Coming ». Then in the late 1980s Schneider’s message changed diametrically (Schneider, 1989): «Results from most recent climatic models suggest that global average surface temperatures will increase by some 2° to 6°C during the next century... Sea level rises of 0.5 to 1.5 meters are typically projected for the next century » and stressed that policy responses could encompass a "Law of the Atmosphere". Then in a paper in Detroit News, dated December 5, 1989, p. 10A, Schneider claimed that a statement that he was "among those actively warning of a returning ice age" ... "is blatantly false". This is in tune with is advice on scientific honesty "... we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public imagination. That of course means getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up some scary scenarios, male simplified dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might have... Each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective and being honest" (Quoted in Discover Magazine, p. 45–48, October 1989). As stated by Ebell and Milloy (2019) «More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science. While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited». One thing did not change since 1970, the doom-sayers keep running their businesses. As displayed on the Earth Day Website http://www.earthday.org/ «Scientists warn us that climate change could accelerate beyond our control, threatening our survival and everything we love. We call on you to keep global temperature rise under the unacceptably dangerous level of 2 degrees C, by phasing out carbon pollution to zero. To achieve this, you must urgently forge
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