Corona-Conflicts By Siobhan Pebody
Siobhan is an MA Student reading War Studies. She read History and Politics for her undergraduate, focusing on IR and security. Her academic interests range from comparative analysis of civil conflicts to civil-military relations. She is currently particularly interested in foreign policy decision-making processes concerning the use of force, especially within democratic states.
less able to cope with it. Citizen trust in governments has been tested to its limits and will continue to be, as depressed economies attempt to fulfil unprecedented health and social care requirements. The mix of deprivation and reduced trust in governments greatly increases the risk for social unrest, and thus conflict, especially where it is felt that the impact of the pandemic has been unequally borne or exacerbating pre-existing division.
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How the COVID crisis translates into ongoing conflicts around the world
he Coronavirus pandemic has been an enormous test of state and governmental capability. Responses have often been extremely resource-intensive, leading to economic stress, and challenged citizens’ trust in their governments and institutions. Whilst in developed Western democracies, this might take the form of searing opinion pieces or public criticism, in more politically fragile states, there can be greater ramifications. Economic decline raises the risk of civil conflict and organised crime which may be more devastating given reduced state capacity as governments deal with the pandemic. International attention and resources are similarly distracted, allowing conflict to flourish where there might otherwise be intervention. Risks of conflict, exacerbated by the pandemic, tend to be especially found among substate and local actors and transnational groups taking advantage of the absence of state attention. Pandemic-caused economic slowdown has left states less able to provide social support when their citizens most need it. 150 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty by the end of 2021, the first rise in 20 years [1]. Whilst there is not a direct correlation between poverty and conflict, conflict typically increases with economic instability and makes communities and states
More practically, the military has been utilised in more non-traditional ways: greater logistic support rather than security provision. President Biden referenced the military’s increased logistical role within the US to support his pick of not-long retired General Austin as defence secretary [2]. This, coupled with reduced likelihood of international intervention or pressure as states are distracted at home, emboldens substate actors and organised crime units. Importantly, while in the developed world there might be glimmers of vaccine-borne hope, global access to the vaccine is set to be shockingly unequal with poorer states unable to start vaccination until later in 2021 [3]. Though the overall impact of Coronavirus has so far been mercifully less pronounced in many African states, a new surge is a great risk given already fragile healthcare systems and economies [4]. The knock-on risks could persist for years to come.
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