FA C T S & F I G U R E S
PACKAGING Status Report (3) Four-monthly Observatory of the packaging supply chain: situation updated to August 2020. The analysis obviously takes into account the consequences of the world pandemic, which has blocked activities and heavily influenced everyone’s habits, from many points of view. The recovery is expected to be slow in all sectors. Barbara Iascone - Italian Packaging Institute
H
ere is a cross-section of the trend in the manufacturing industry sectors where packaging consumption is more intense with its consequent evolution - divided into food and non-food macro-areas. The evolutionary frameworks of the manufacturing sectors are taken from sector analyses elaborated by trade associations, the database of the Italian Packaging Institute or Prometeia. Food Area Negative trend for the food production and only the resumption of Horeca will be able to raise the general situation. In the month of April, according to the latest data available at the time of writing, there is a decrease in production of 8.1% compared to April 2019. This negative figure adds to the -6.5% already recorded in March, again in comparison with the corresponding period in 2019. The trend decrease in the first quarter was -1.5%, while in the first quarter of 2020 the rate was still positive, +0.8%. The decline is essentially influenced by the performance of the Horeca sector, which accounts for about 1/3 of domestic food consumption. It is important to emphasize that although the decline in the food sector has nothing to do with the disastrous trends in other sectors, it is no less important. The sector has always been characterized by countercyclical trends, i.e. even in times of great crisis it did not record trends with great criticality, but the crisis resulting from the pandemic did not hold up.
Obviously this trend has also had an impact on packaging, creating some criticality especially for some types of packaging. The glass bottles will certainly be affected, in particular the production related to mineral water. Non Food Area Fashion system According to the analysis elaborated by SMI Sistema moda Italia, in 2019 the sector recorded the following trends: in the “clothing” area, pro-
NOTE The data used for the processing of the report is taken from the database of the Italian Packaging Institute.
duction closed the year at -5.6% while in the “textile” area it was -7.6%. The production of the fashion sector as a whole was therefore at -6.2%. After a first quarter in slight decline, -0.3%, in the second quarter of 2019 there was a recovery with production up by 1.5%. In the following two quarters the negative trend compared to 2018 was consolidated. With regard to the outlet markets, the domestic market closed with a decrease of approximately 8%, while the foreign market
International economic framework
The International Monetary Fund has updated its forecasts for GDP trends around the world. According to the latest figures, world GDP will fall by 4.9% in 2020. The situation in which we find ourselves is unprecedented and the recovery will be very slow, so much so that world GDP growth in 2021 is expected to be only +5.4%. For the current year, in Italy, the drop in GDP will be -12.8%, while in the Eurozone the expected contraction is -10.2% overall (-7.8% for Germany, -10% and more for the United Kingdom). The evolutionary assumptions for 2021 see Italy recover by 6.3%, while the Eurozone as a whole will reach +6%. The United States will contract by around -8% in 2020, with a positive rebound in 2021 of +4.5%. According to Confindustria On the basis of the calculations carried out by the Confindustria (Confederation of Italian Industry) study office, it can be seen that in July - data available at the time of writing - the rise of Italy is difficult due to the still low domestic demand. In June, consumption was down 15% per year. Exports started up again as early as May, but they are still large below pre-Covid levels. Italy, in this sense, recovered better than Germany and the United States, recording acceptable results for exports of pharmaceutical products; exports of food products per-
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