Global oil reserves increase by 52 billion barrels year-on-year, says Rystad

Global recoverable oil reserves stand at 1624 billion barrels, an increase of 52 billion barrels from last year’s estimate, according to research by Rystad Energy.

In a scenario where global warming is limited to 1.9°C, this oil will contribute about 0.2°C of additional warming by 2100, based on one barrel of oil emitting 400 kg CO2. Therefore, about 20% of any additional warming will come from burning oil in cars, ships and aeroplanes and all other uses that lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Emissions from oilfield operations are estimated at 5% of all crude-related emissions. ‘The industry is working actively to reduce the intensity of upstream emissions, which can vary from 10 kg of carbon dioxide per barrel of oil (kgCO2/ barrel) in Saudi Arabia to more than 100 kgCO2/kg in heavy oil fields in Venezuela,’ said Rystad.

Since Rystad’s 2022 report, 30 billion barrels of crude oil have been extracted, the same level as in 2018 and 2019, with 84 billion barrels added in fields, discoveries and exploration prospects. Increased reserves in producing fields and approved projects in 2022 amount to 71 billion barrels, while 13 billion barrels were found in new discoveries during 2022, equalling a net total addition of 54 billion barrels.

Although 1624 billion barrels of oil are technically recoverable, fewer than 1300 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at an average Brent price of $50 per barrel. The potential longevity of proven reserves varies widely among OPEC and non-OPEC producers, ranging from fewer than five years for the UK to more than 20 years for

Canada. Iran leads OPEC members with almost 13 years of proven reserves.

‘The upstream sector is working hard to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oilfields. However, even with these mitigation measures and governmental efforts, if global warming is to be successfully limited to 1.6°C only half of the world’s recoverable reserves would be required. It’s not unreasonable to conclude that policies and technological advances can reduce oil consumption and boost the energy transition, bringing us closer to a 1.6°C scenario,’ said Rystad CEO Jarand Rystad.

One key driver of waning oil demand is the surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales. Rystad estimates EV sales will continue to accelerate and pass 50% of global car sales by 2030, leading to peak oil demand of 105 million barrels per day (bpd).