Rystad predicts shortage of manufacturing capacity for offshore wind turbines

A supply headache could be on the horizon for the offshore wind industry before the end of the decade, according to research from Rystad Energy.

Its modelling shows that in 2029, demand for offshore turbine towers will outstrip manufacturing capacity. Rystad Energy’s Offshore Wind Capacity Outlook shows that in 2029, demand will surpass manufacturing capacity ‘by a significant margin’. Steel demand for offshore wind towers will total more than 1.7 million tonnes in 2029, but manufacturing capac- ity will be a maximum of around 1.3 million tonnes.

If Europe is to reverse this trend, manufacturers need to expand tower manufacturing in the next two years, says the report.

Alexander Flotre, vice-president, Rystad Energy, said: ‘Turbine sizes keep growing as the importance of offshore wind to the global power grid accelerates, and tower demand is projected to surge accordingly. This is a golden opportunity for manufacturers to capitalise on increased demand, but new capacity needs to be added imminently if Europe is going to avoid a supply headache.’

While the average turbine capacity fixed in Europe in 2023 is expected to reach almost 10MW, Rystad Energy estimates that 50% of turbines installed between 2029 and 2035 will be bigger than 14 MW, with some projects forecasting to build 20 MW at the beginning of 2030.

As rotor dimensions grow, turbine sizes increase and larger towers are required. This growth is more prominent in Europe.